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Episode 003: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Episode 003 of The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Talking Fantasy Baseball for Monday 5/19 thru Sunday 5/25

Featuring Ian Riley (@Ian_Riley)of Rotoexperts.com

Fantasy Baseball Expert Ian Riley

Ian Riley of RotoExperts.com

About My Guest: Ian’s first exposure to the world of Fantasy sports came in the form of Strat-O-Matic baseball back in the summer of 1994 at the tender age of 17. That introduction has led to a love affair with both Fantasy Baseball and Football that is now rapidly approaching two decades. 
 
His writing career began in August of 2008 with OPENSports.com, where he was discovered by the one-and-only David Gonos. While there his work also appeared on FantasyLive.com and the Fantasy Football draft kit on FoxSports.com. 

Ian brought his talents to RotoExperts in March of 2011, where he writes his weekly OSR Report (Observations, Speculations and Revelations). He also regularly appears on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio with Scott Engel and Adam Ronis.

Episode Summary: Ian and I talk Fantasy Baseball for over an hour to get you prepared for the upcoming week.  The fact that Ian and I know each other so well really comes through on the episode even when we disagree on some players.  Make sure to listen all the way to the end when we discuss our top waiver wire adds for the week.

  • Intro
  • We get to know our guest a little and talk about how small a world it can be in Fantasy Sports
  • Fantasy Baseball News and Notes-Everything you need to know to be ready for the Fantasy Baseball week
  • Two Start Starting Pitchers-Potential Streamers and some you may want to avoid even if you picked them up.
  • Sell High Candidates-Who needs to be traded for the biggest haul…
  • Buy Low Targets
  • Waiver Wire Adds
  • Guys you need to drop in your leagues.

You can Download this episode as well as the previous two on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Once again I would like to thank my guest, Ian Riley of RotoExperts, for spending so much time with me on a Sunday evening as well as C-Quel or The Mighty Shiek as he’s known for the amazing Intro to The Fantasy Coach Podcast.

 

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Episode 002: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Episode 2 of The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Featuring: Shane P. Hallam of DraftTV.com

2014 NFL Draft Recap and Fantasy Football Outlook

About My Guest: 

Shane Hallam of DraftTV.com

Shane Hallam of DraftTV.com

 Shane has been analyzing the NFL Draft for a decade. He is currently President and Owner of www.DraftTV.com and previously was an NFL Draft Analyst for www.draftcountdown.com writing scouting reports and articles for the site since 2010.  He is also a member of the Football Writer’s Association of America and Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  He has attended the Senior Bowl in Mobile since 2011 and was the color commentator of the local radio broadcast in 2014. Be sure to follow him on twitter @ShanePHallam Summary:  Shane and I discuss the 2014 NFL draft and try and hit as many high lights (The Raiders?) and low lights as we can fit in a one hour show.  We discuss everything from teams changing their draft philosophy to which palyers you should target in Fantasy Football. Episode Breakdown:

  • Intro
  • We talk about which teams had the best drafts and which teams seemed to not have the best approach to this draft.
  • We discuss if some of the top NFL QB’s should be happy how their teams drafted.
  • We’ll discuss the running backs drafted and how they could change the way the touches are handed out where they landed.
  • We touch on a possible Seattle find that may slip under the radar in your fantasy drafts.
  • Addition by Omission: which players benefit from their teams not drafting competition for them.
  • We give our top 10 Rookie draft picks for Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues and one sleeper we will be targeting late in drafts.

ITunes

One Important note is that the Original Intro music is provided by my good friend C-Quel or The Mighty Siek as he’s also known.  I can’t thank him enough for stepping into the studio and nailing an intro that will get everyone excited for the new podcast.

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Fantasy Baseball: Waiver and Watch out List

Some of the hot names available on the Waiver Wire in a league near you:

Drew Pomeranz

  • Drew Pomeranz (Oakland A’s-SP) Pomeranz is the beneficiary of the Dan Straily demotion to Sacremento.  While Straily was a nice target late in drafts for his strikeout upside his tendency to give up the untimely home run finally caught up to him.  Keep an eye on Straily’s progress in Triple A as he could be called up before to long with Tommy Milone not lighting it up in the rotation.  Now onto Pomeranz.  Pomeranz was top prospect that just couldn’t break through to the big club in Cleveland and was eventually shipped to the Colorado Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal.  Pomeranz struggled in Colorado and eventually the Rockies decided to eat their losses and let Pomeranz go for the price of Brett Anderson from the Oakland A’s.  Pomeranz has been reinvigorated by the change of scenery and has been pitching well out of the A’s bullpen before getting a chance to blank the Mariners for 5 innings  in a spot start during a double header last week.  Pomeranz was a top 30 prospect before fizzling out in Colorado and could be a nice addition to your fantasy baseball rotation, especially in deep leagues, where injuries around the Major Leagues have fantasy managers scrambling.  I have tried to grab him in most formats where my league size is 12 and up.  I’m hoping we have another Jesse Chavez on our hands, but I’ll settle for what we expected from Straily.
  • Cody Allen (Cleveland Indians-RP) Allen was the first name at the top of the list as managers were scrambling to replace John Axford in their fantasy bullpens.  Well it seems Terry Francona isn’t looking for a long term replacement at closer and wants Axford to work his way back into the role.  I was high on Axford as a late round sleeper closer in the build up to fantasy drafts, but in the back of my head I had trouble getting over the fact that he couldn’t take the job back from Jim Henderson in Milwaukee last season.  Whether it’s trouble with his pitching mechanics or he’s tipping his pitches again, I really don’t know if he CAN get the job back if one of the other Cleveland relievers run away with it.  The problem is it’s going to be closer by committee in Cleveland for the time being and Allen isn’t the only one to lay claim to the closer’s role.  Bryan Shaw has been lights out as well this year and picked up a save in that role on Sunday in 9 pitches.  If I’m an Axford owner I’m hanging onto Axford and picking up either Allen or Shaw in the short term.  Personally in very deep leagues I snuck in sneaky cheap bids on Shaw and hope that he can run away with it.  If he doesn’t I’m sure one of the million players currently clogging up my DL will take the spot come June 1st.
  • Rafael Montero (New York Mets-SP) Montero was always going to be the first of the Mets triple A prospects to get a shot in the rotation because of arbitration entanglements, but Noah Syndergaard  struggled to start the season and Montero has kept up his strikeout stuff in the mean time.  Jenrry Mejia could be headed to the bullpen to make room for Montero in the Mets rotation and it could be a boon for your fantasy team.  Montero has a lot of the things I’m looking for when I need a prospect to save my fantasy rotation.  He is called up to a pitcher’s park and has a better than 9 K per 9 Innings ratio.  The Mets defense is the only drawback for me liking more, but I see Montero as a must grab in any league larger than 12 and of course for NL only leagues.
  • Chase Headley (San Diego padres-3B) headley struggled out of the gate this year just like most of the Padres offensive players and then was forced to the disabled list with a strained calf.  A ton of fantasy GMs jumped ship when Headley hit the DL as they saw that as the last straw.  Personally I am grabbing Headley where I can because he has all the ingredients to pay off.  He’s in a contract year, he is way off his career number (even if those are inflated by an outlier season) and he also holds that special value as the one that got away.  There is nothing like picking up someone’s cast off and having him light it up when he plays for your team.  I have seen it time and time again where the amateur fantasy owner can’t get over the fact that his castoff is lighting it up for someone else and ends up making a lopsided trade to get that player back on their squad.

Watch out!  These players could be playing themselves into a DL or minor league stint:

  • Mike Moustakas (Kansas City Royals-3B)  The struggles just won’t stop for this immensely talented pain in my butt.  In all seriousness I will gladly admit that I drank from the Moustakas has finally found it fountain this Spring Training and I was once again wrong.
  • Chris Archer (Tampa Bay Rays-SP)  Archer has struggled for a few outings now and his control is what worries me.  If it was just getting hit he clould make some adjustments, but his command has really become an issue.  In 10 league teams I would consider dropping him for a more solid option.
  • Clay Buchholtz (Boston Red Sox-SP)  Buchholtz has not looked like himself since spring training.  He is giving up hits in bunches and missing less and less bats as he struggles to get outs.  I actually uttered the words He’s Dead To Me on the Fantasy Black Book Show on Sirius XM this weekend and I think I should clarify that a little bit.  I’m holding on to him in the hopes that they put him on the DL to correct whatever the issue is that is going on with a guy that I thought could be a nice late round gamble.
  • Dan Uggla (Atlanta Braves-2B)  Uggla is going to be DFA before the year is through.  This was inevitable, but the Braves haven’t decided who is going to be the one to get the first shot as a full time replacement.  Tommmy La Stella could be coming up from the minors when he’s ready and could help teams in larger leagues that need some BA help and maybe even runs if he gets to hit in front of Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton.  Ramiro Pena is better a s a bench bat and glove and using him full time at 2B would hurt the Braves more than it would help.  Stear clear for now.

Situations to monitor:

  • Alex Fernandez is scheduled for an MRI in Los Angeles and just typing this has me shaking a little as I am not diversified enough when it comes to shares of Fernandez.
  • Alex Wood will be heading to the bullpen in Atlanta as Gavin Floyd will get a chance to stick in the rotation.  I am keeping Wood on my bench everywhere I have him because he will eventually be back in the rotation and has proved that he’s a fantasy asset as a starter.  The Braves can limit his innings by putting him in the bullpen now and continue to ride the resurgence of Aaron Harang. (while it lasts…….)

Funny Side note:

Carlos Carrasco (5.81 ERA) beat out both Aaron Harang (2.98 ERA) and Josh Tomlin(2.13 ERA) for the fifth starter job in Cleveland and this is just another example of Cleveland having absolutely no luck….

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Episode 001: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Episode 1 of The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Featuring Arif Hasan of VikingsTerritory.com

2014 NFL Mock Draft

My Guest: Arif Hasan of VikingsTerritory.comArif Hasan of Vikingsterritory.com

Summary:   I want to thank my guest Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL)for being such and engaging guest as we went for almost two hours talking about all the different scenarios that we could see in this year’s NFL draft.  The idea that the Chiefs could be in play for a QB was one of the highlights of the episode.

Items Discussed:

  • Who seemed to fall in the rankings in the lead up to the draft
  • Where the Quarterbacks might go
  • Which teams should address their needs even if they have to reach
  • Who do we think could be great values in the Second round
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2014 NFL Mock Draft Round 2

2014 NFL Mock Draft Round 2

2014 NFL Mock Draft Round 2

Pick Overall Team-Player Picked-Position
1 33 Houston Texans- Teddy Bridgewater-QB
2 34 Washington Redskins-Antonio Richardson-RT
3 35 Cleveland Browns-Jason Verrett-CB-Slot CB
4 36 Oakland Raiders-Dominique Easley-DT
5 37 Atlanta Falcons-Ryan Shazier-WLB/ILB
6 38 Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Austin Seferian-Jenkins-TE
7 39 Jacksonville Jaguars-Joel Bitonio-RT
8 40 Minnesota Vikings-Louis Nix III-DT (too good to pass up here)
9 41 Buffalo Bills-Jace Amaro-TE
10 42 Tennessee Titans-Deone Bucannon-S
11 43 New York Giants-Kelvin Benjamin-WR (He fits what the Giants need-A big outside target)
12 44 St. Louis Rams-Jordan Matthews-WR
13 45 Detroit Lions-Antonio Richardson-RT
14 46 Pittsburgh Steelers-Cody Latimer-WR
15 47 Dallas Cowboys-Scott Crichton-DE
16 48 Baltimore Ravens-Demarcus Lawrence-OLB
17 49 New York Jets-Allen Robinson-WR
18 50 Miami Dolphins-Ja’Wuan James-OT
19 51 Chicago Bears-Daquan Jones-DT (Bears continue to beef up the D-Line with this pick
20 52 Arizona Cardinals-Jack Mewhort-RT (competition for Bobbie Massey)
21 53 Green Bay Packers-Weston Richburg-OC
22 54 Philadelphia Eagles-Jimmie Ward-S
23 55 Cincinnati Bengals-Trai Turner-OG
24 56 San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City) – Kyle Van Noy-OLB
25 57 San Diego Chargers-Marcus Martin-OC
26 58 New Orleans Saints-Jarvis Landry-WR
27 59 Indianapolis Colts-Stan Jean-Baptiste-CB
28 60 Carolina Panthers-Davante Adams-WR
29 61 San Francisco 49ers-Jackson Jeffcoat-DE
30 62 New England Patriots-Troy Niklas-TE
31 63 Denver Broncos-Lamarcus Joyner-CB/Slot-CB
32 64 Seattle Seahawks-Keith McGill-CB
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NFL Mock Draft 2014

NFL Mock Draft 2014

NFL Draft

Well it’s time for me to throw my hat into the ring of NFL Draft prognosticators.  While there are many, many Draft analysts that I have my utmost respect for, I always like to put my thoughts on paper and see how it shakes out versus the pros when it comes time for the actual draft.  I am going to mock the first three rounds based on perceived needs and glaring situations where value would dictate the pick. (Value to me is where I rank the individual player)  I am not going to include trades and therefore some QB picks may look funny because they will more than likely go earlier because of some trade scenario.

Round 1
Pick Overall Team
1 1 Houston Texans

Jadeveon Clowney- I’ve been waiting to see Clowney be drafted first overall since he was in high school.  Truly a once in generation talent that can now team up with J.J. Watt to make one of the best defensive line tandems since Reggie White and Jerome Brown.

2 2 St. Louis Rams (from Washington)

Greg Robinson- I have a feeling St. Louis won’t stay here and make this pick, but if they do Robinson makes a lot of sense as he could play RT for a few years and then slide over to the left when he’s coached up at the NFL level.  Even if he completely bombs as an NFL tackle he would be unbelievable (like Larry Allen) at Guard.
3 3 Jacksonville Jaguars

Sammy Watkins-  I’m a big believer in Watkins talent and believe that he SHOULD be the pick here, but you never know what an NFL team is thinking.  They need to get more talented across their roster and look like they want to ground and pound by signing Toby Gerhart to take over at RB.  I think Robinson is a great fit here as well.
4 4 Cleveland Browns

Taylor Lewan- This pick is a tough one for me.  If they didn’t pick Mingo and invest in Kruger last year then Khalil Mack would be hands down the pick, but alas they have those two already.  Mitchell Schwartz has a long injury history (Back issues) and struggled early last year.  They could bump Schwartz down to guard and have two bookends at tackle in Thomas and Lewan that could rival any tackle tandem in the league.
5 5 Oakland Raiders

Khalil Mack- The Raiders need to take a young quarterback in this draft, but Reggie Mckenzie needs to protect his job and put a quality product on the field THIS year.  A young QB at this pick with this much talent on the board at other positions would be a job killer.
6 6 Atlanta Falcons

Jake Matthews- The Falcons would be extremely lucky to have Matthews fall to them here.  I do think there could be a scenario where the Rams trade back and take Matthews before this could take place.
7 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans- Evans is going to be picked by this pick one way or another.  I can definitely see another team trading up to acquire this unique talent at this spot in the draft.  For me, this is the spot where the tier in this draft drops off.
8 8 Minnesota Vikings

Blake Bortles- My buddy Arif Hasan has to be happy about getting a new young arm to groom behind Matt Cassel. Hey if Bortles doesn’t work out you will at least get to see pictures of his girlfriend plastered all over the Twin Cities.
9 9 Buffalo Bills

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix-  This pick is tough.  With everyone who went off the board before this spot Clinton-Dix became the right pick here.  I felt it was too early for Ebron and any offensive lineman here would be a reach with Clinton-Dix on the board. Most teams need three capable safeties now a days and Clinton-Dix’s talent is top notch.
10 10 Detroit Lions

Darqueze Dennard- Dennard is my pick at corner for the Lions, but they could easily like Gilbert more.  I think he is ready to step in and play right away and the Lions do face the Packers and Bears a total of four times every year.
11 11 Tennessee Titans

C. J. Mosley- The Titans are going to a 3-4 and they will need all the athletic-playmaking linebackers that they can get their hands on.  Mosley is a little undersized, but should become a fan favorite for the Titans.  I also would have liked Anthony Barr here.
12 12 New York Giants

Zach Martin- The rebuilding of the Offensive-line is officially on for the G-Men.  Martin is a Pro Bowl guard fresh out of the box and a tough as nails smart Right Tackle if need be.  With Chris Snee’s hips being a question mark, Martin’s versatility will be paramount for the Giants.  I see no scenario where Mike Evans or Taylor Lewan make it to this pick.
13 13 St. Louis Rams

Aaron Donald-His talent changes plans here for the Rams.  You put him next to either of the Rams sack hunting defensive ends and an offensive line will have it’s hands full.  Make a strength stronger is what I would do if Donald was available here.
14 14 Chicago Bears

Timmy Jernigan- Why does it feel like I’m making this pick because I still wish Tommie Frazier was in Chicago?  Even if it’s because I see a little of the old healthy Frazier in Jernigan, it still doesn’t change the fact that the Bears need to keep adding talent to that defensive line that was gashed over and over again last season.
15 15 Pittsburgh Steelers

Justin Gilbert- The Steelers need to get younger in the secondary and Gilbert is fast and has the ideal build to be a top corner in the NFL.  It’s not a sexy pick, but it’s a necessary pick.
16 16 Dallas Cowboys

Odell Beckham Jr.-  obviously this doesn’t fit an immediate need for the Cowboys, but I think this is where he will be picked.  Ideally the Cowboys would trade back from this spot if Donald, Jernigan, and Mosley were all off the board.
17 17 Baltimore Ravens

Morgan Moses- The Ravens offensive line was abysmal last season.  Michael Oher has since left in free agency and the Right Tackle spot is currently manned by Ricky Wagner who looked out classed when he played last season.  I think Yanda would be able to take the VERY talented Moses under his wing and make the right side of the Ravens line a strength.
18 18 New York Jets

Eric Ebron- I’m not in love with this pick for the Jets because I really like Jeff Cumberland, but they could make quite a tandem for whoever ends up taking the snaps under center.  Ebron is a big time talent, but the Jets could really use an upgrade at the wide receiver position so if Beckham slips he could be the pick.
19 19 Miami Dolphins

Kyle Fuller- Corner is not a glaring need for the Dolphins, but Fuller would be a very good value here.  Fuller has excellent closing speed in coverage and seemed to play the trail technique at a pro level while in college.  The Dolphins need a Right Tackle, but it would have been a reach here.
20 20 Arizona Cardinals

Derek Carr- The Cardinals took Ryan Lindley as a developmental quarterback a few years ago, but Carr gives them a quarterback that is used to having a defense tell him where to throw the ball and being able to put the ball where he wants it.  Carr is not a finished product and will do well to watch Palmer keep the chains moving with traffic all around him.
21 21 Green Bay Packers

Anthony Barr- It’s hard for me the believe that Anthony Barr would last this long in the draft, but in this scenario he does.  Barr is a little raw as far his pass rushing skills, but his athleticism and first step are top notch.  There would be many meetings at the QB for Barr and Matthews if this actually happened.
22 22 Philadelphia Eagles

Calvin Pryor- The Eagles are desperate for a safety falls right in their lap.  With Pryor manning the back of their defense the Eagles can be even more aggressive to try and get the ball back in the hands of their dynamic offense.

23 23 Kansas City Chiefs

Marqise Lee-  The Chiefs need a better compliment to Dwayne Bowe then Donnie Avery and they get it in Lee.  I think Lee will make a lot of fans in Kansas City with his personality and his skills.  Last year was tough on Lee, as he fell off from the previous year, but he has all the skills needed to be a star.
24 24 Cincinnati Bengals

Kony Ealy- The departure of Michael Johnson and the fact that Margus Hunt isn’t ready to be an NFL starter makes this the pick for the Bengals.
25 25 San Diego Chargers

Jeremiah Attaochu- The Chargers have a big need at Outside Linebacker and Attaochu is going to be a very good outside linebacker in the NFL.  He’s a little raw, but man when he locks on the ball carrier or quarterback he explodes.  I wouldn’t be surprised by a trade back here with a team trying to trade up to this spot to take a quarterback.
26 26 Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)

Johnny Manziel- In this scenario the Browns would be able to get Manziel 22 picks after most people have them taking him.  I doubt he makes it this far in the draft, because believe it or not, he IS really good at football.  He’s a ton of fun to watch and man would it be cool to watch him scramble around and then throw it down field for Greg little to drop it.  Just kidding.
27 27 New Orleans Saints

Dee Ford-  Call me crazy but Dee Ford playing Outside Linebacker in a Ryan defense seems pretty exciting.  Ford would bring a new dimension to this defense and could be key in getting the ball back in Drew Brees’ hands quicker.
28 28 Carolina Panthers

Brandin Cooks-  Carolina is weaponless when it comes to the wide receiver position.  Cooks immediately upgrades the talent level of the Panthers’ wide receiver corps and should be able to contribute right away either from the slot or the outside.
29 29 New England Patriots

Ra’Shede Hageman- Hageman is a beast and probably will go higher on draft day, but in this scenario he doesn’t become a great fit until this spot in the draft.  Hageman will make Chandler Jones that much better by taking up blockers and wreaking havoc.
30 30 San Francisco 49ers

Bradley Roby- Roby is a bit of a project at corner, but he has all the tools to be a great corner in the NFL.  He has the perfect build, great speed and leaping ability and yet Jared Abbrederis of Wisconsin made him look like fool this season.  His tape screams coach me up, but his workouts scream pick me.
31 31 Denver Broncos

Stephon Tuitt- Tuitt can play defensive end or defensive tackle for the Denver Broncos and would be a great pick down here.  With Derek Wolfe’s health being a concern I think the Broncos have to address the defensive line early in the draft.
32 32 Seattle Seahawks

Xavier Su’a-Filo- The Seahawks have the luxury of just tweaking an already stacked roster.  The glaring weakness last year was the right side of the offensive line and Su’a-Filo would be an upgrade over J.R. Sweezy.  He can even bump out to tackle and hold his own.
Round 2 will be posted May 2nd – feel free to make fun of the picks in the comment section below. Wow did I make a mistake with the first pass at this mock draft by leaving Aaron Donald off the board.

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Rum-Springer (George Springer Hysteria)

Well the news of Goerge Springer’s call up to the Houston Astros came down last night like a lightning bolt from Mount Olympus.  Twitter went wild and fantasy owners everywhere went scrambling for their phones to see if Springer was on the waiver wire.  I think the analogy holds water as most owners who drafted Springer in redraft and keeper leagues view him as a Greek God who will come and save their team.

George Springer a god?

Everyone Loves A Rookie

Projecting rookies is a funny thing.  Trying to weigh the minor league numbers against what we can expect at the big league level is almost a futile past time.  It’s like trying to figure out why the Diamonbacks are keeping Archie Bradley in the minor leagues.  Your guess is as good as mine.  (If you leave a comment about Super 2 rules and arbitration eligibility I will hunt you down. Joking…not joking.)

Even with all those questions hanging in the air most fantasy baseball owners are guilty of overvaluing rookies.  It’s a sickness that seems to plague almost every league I join.  8 out of 12 owners going into this year thought they were drafting Jose Reyes when they took Billy Hamilton over players like Alex Gordon and Jayson Werth.  They ended up with Michael Bourn.  I’ll never understand it fully, but you’re damn well sure I will try and take advantage of it every chance I get.

Even in redraft leagues the value of Springer is almost off the charts as of this very moment.  People believe they drafted Carlos Gonzalez or Andrew McCutchen in the 15th round and if you want to trade for him now that he’s making his debut tonight, you will have to pay close to that amount.  It’s madness!  Yes, I’m excited about Springer, but if he has anywhere near the value Puig had during his torrid start to last year, you better believe I will trade him.

If Springer gets off to a fast start it will be like watching the teenage Amish run around Pennsylvania during Rumspringa.  That’s right I went there.  The GM’s in your leagues that drafted Springer will be having their very own version of Rum-Springer as they run around patting themselves on the back with every stolen base or extra-base hit. You’ll get trade offers of  Springer and Gray for Cargo and Darvish.  Don’t laugh…just wait, you’ll see that these Springer crazed individuals will only get bolder and bolder as Springer plays well.

My R.O.S. projections are probably going to end up on the low side of everyone else’s.  I have Springer hitting .288 with 17 homers, 24 steals, 58 runs and 60 RBIs.  Don’t get me wrong those are really solid numbers, but I wouldn’t be trading Chris Davis or Edwin Encarnacion (two underperforming sluggers) to acquire Springer in redraft leagues.  In keeper leagues his price tag will be even more, but you better be willing to eat a ton of strikeouts to get him.

Let me know what you would give up to get Springer, sight unseen, in keeper and redraft leagues in the comment section.  Maybe we’ll discuss it when I make an appearance on The Fantasy Black Book -fantasy sports show-on SiriusXM Satellite radio with hosts Dan Strafford and Joe Pisapia.

P.S. Here’s Springer’s first Major League hit courtesy of Drew Silva

 

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Garbage Picking

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Watch

Fantasy Baseball owners are as bad as toddlers when it comes to patience.  They want the results now and two bad starts or two tough weeks at the plate is just too much for them to take.  They’ll jump ship before a distress signal has even been sent.  Leagues with limited or no DL slots make this time of year exciting to watch the drop section of your league’s transaction log.  Remember it’s always better to take the bad end of a trade then drop a potential asset.  No matter what I say or do I will never change the average owner, so I have to just sit back and garbage pick through their drops.

Leonys Martin owners haven't had a lot to smile about so far.

Leonys Martin owners haven’t had a lot to smile about so far.

Erik Johnson- Chicago White Sox- Starting Pitcher

Johnson had a lot of helium in early drafts before Alex Wood and Yordano Ventura stole all the pre-draft hype.  Through his first two starts Johnson looked like he was going to prove that his draft stock deserved to be falling by looking very hittable.  Those who dropped him may be kicking themselves after watching him dominate the Red Sox lineup yesterday to the tune of 9 strike outs in 6 and a 1/3 innings.  Johnson is a fringe pitcher in 12 team mixed, but is a must roster in any larger leagues.  His strike out upside is just better than what you probably have at the bottom of your rosters.

Dexter Fowler- Houston Astros – Center Fielder

Fowler started out of the gates hot and owners were patting themselves on the back just like last year that they took him late in drafts, but an illness has really sapped Fowler for the last few weeks and owners are starting to panic.  He has been dropped in a ton of leagues for streaming types like David Murphy or Dayan Viciedo and that was a mistake. I am not a huge fan of Fowler.  I’m not one of these guys that think he will all of a sudden put it all together and be a premier outfielder. (some people actually believe that.) I think he’s a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder to have who can fill power and speed categories when you’re in a pinch.  He should be rostered in in all 12 team mixed leagues with at least 5 bench spots.

Kyle Seager- Seattle Mariners- Third Baseman

Seager is off to another slow start this year.  Last season he was dropped almost everywhere in 12 team mixed leagues only to see him become a valuable asset down the stretch.  He no longer holds second base eligibility,  but third base isn’t the deepest position in the league.  With players like Moustakas, Sandoval, Lawrie and Freese struggling and Middlebrooks and Beltre hurting it makes hanging on to Seager that much harder.  The reason I say harder is because owners see third-baseman like Marcus Semien and Trevor Plouffe flying off the waiver wire while they sit on their hands.  I believe owners should just keep Seager on the bench if they can.  He’s too valuable as a third-baseman that has the ability to hit 20+ homers and steal 10 bases.

Khris Davis-Milwaukee Brewers-Left Fielder

Davis being dropped is an example of expectations being too high in the fantasy draft process.  People were punting homers in the middle of their drafts thinking they were going to grab Davis late and get a potential 25-30 homer guy.  That is a lot to ask of a young player.  I still like Davis a lot, but I wasn’t banking on him as my steady 3rd Outfielder.  Don’t cut bait on Davis just yet, unless there’s something crazy on the waiver wire.  Keep him on your bench until he gets his feet under him and starts to get better pitches to hit.  In leagues of 14 or bigger I wouldn’t think of dropping him yet.  The Jason Kubel’s of the world will always be there to pick up if Davis is still struggling in a month or two.

Leonys Martin-Texas Rangers- Center Fielder

Martin is caught up in the downward spiral that is the Texas Rangers.  The injuries to the pitching staff and lineup have lumped a lot of pressure on players that aren’t used to shouldering it.  Martin’s spot in the lineup was always going to keep his numbers somewhat down, but he has gotten off to much slower start than I would have thought.  He’s got zero extra base hits and only two steals so I can understand the frustration.  Martin is another one I am holding on to with all my might and I’m even trying to target as a secondary throw in in trades.  When the Rangers get healthy and the heat picks up in Texas I expect Martin to break out.

Some studs that I have seen or heard hit the waiver wire.  Allen Craig (Dan Strafford just told me about this one), Wilin Rosario, and David Ortiz.

Some other guys people might be losing patience for that you should pick up.  Brett Lawrie, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Billy Butler and Xander Bogaerts.  I wish I played in more leagues where they hit the wire!

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The Golden Days Of DFS

DraftDay Sold

Recently one of my favorite daily fantasy sports sites, DraftDay.com was bought by MGT.  I have to say I am sad because my initial introduction to DFS was through playing RapidFire on DraftDay with David Gonos, Dan Strafford and Eric Mack.  I had no idea that this industry existed, let alone how fun and addicting it could be.

The great thing about Draft Day was the simple user interface and the really fun Rapid Fire games.  All you had to do was pick 3 out of 5 right and you double your bet.  The 5 for 5 Rapid Fire Max was the sucker bet of all sucker bets, but every once in a while I would still partake when I felt a lock lineup was picked.  It’s exactly like that side bet at the black jack table in Las Vegas.  Lucky Ladies where if you get two queens of hearts you get a 100-1.  How many times have I seen absolute drunkards losing all their money staying on 15 against a ten and then put their last 50 bucks on that sucker bet and…..WIN!

The truth is the DFS space is getting smaller.  New companies are coming along, but they can’t offer the high stakes games that the big boys like Fanduel, DraftKings and even DraftStreet can offer.  Even if they offer a lower rake or an easier interface and softer games the big money is always going to chase the overlay in the big guaranteed prize pool tournaments.

RotoGrinders Daily Fantasy Fix Podcast recently had Andrew Wiggins co-founder of DraftDay on after he sold his stake in Draft Day and the interview conducted by Dan Back is one of the best inside looks at the shift in the DFS market place that I have heard.  You have to understand that Andrew Wiggins was not only the owner of Draft Day, but is also a very good DFS player himself.  His expertise in Basketball is known to anyone who faces him in a 50/50 or tournament.

Quote from Andrew Wiggins about the sale of Draft Day:

“We have worked tirelessly to build an outstanding product and loyal player base. With MGT’s support, DraftDay will have greater resources to grow this business to new heights. Our employees look forward to making MGT the market leader in daily fantasy sports.”

Seriously, go take a listen then come back and read the rest.

Draft Day just couldn’t keep up with the huge contests that were being offered up at their competitor’s sites.  Andrew said they made a huge error in working on the site itself instead of raising money so they could attract more players.  I think anyone can understand the mistake that DraftDay made.  They simply looked at the wrong problem to fix.

I find myself wasting time doing the same here on my site.  Instead of providing my loyal readers fresh content, I fiddle with the look of the site or work on SEO issues.  People don’t come to my site for the ease of navigation or for the fancy pictures, they come to see if they should drop Mike Moustakas in season long fantasy baseball now or pay for Jose Fernandez in DFS.  I KNOW my problem and how to fix it and yet I still find myself wondering if I am going about this right.

I think that’s what got Draft Day in trouble.  They knew how to build a great user interface and how to create fun games with interesting salary structures.  They didn’t know how to raise money.  I have to commend Andrew for being so honest when he talked about all the financial backing DraftKings got this last year.  He wasn’t jealous in the least.  He was amazed.  How did they accomplish that?  I am the same way when someone in the same industry as me displays a talent that is just so foreign to me yet is exactly what you need to succeed.

Another thing mentioned by Andrew is that DFS players have no idea how good we have it right now.  It’s true, we really don’t.  We nit-pick at sites on slow nights and complain when there’s a lull in big contests.  Imagine how much we’re going to complain when all the overlay is gone, and the rake gets bigger.  We could see a future of only two massive sites where you literally can only play other sharks because all the casual players have been chased away.

We really are Jolly Green Giants walking the DFS earth.

Remember these are the golden days my friends and we will look back fondly on them.

 

 

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Waiver Watch

Waiver Watch: Pitchers For Week 1

James Paxton Fantasy Baseball

Starting Pitchers:

James Paxton:  The flame thrower from Seattle started out of the gates fast.  The big thing with Paxton is you’ll get a nice bump in strikeouts and strikeouts are as hard as homers to find and there’s nothing like picking up a nice supply week 1 of the Fantasy Baseball season.  Jump on while you can and look at my Mariners’ article for the reasons why I love this team.

Scott Kazmir:  Fantasy Baseball owners were not believing that Kazmir could do it again.  The funny thing is people drafted Ubaldo Jimenez even though he signed with the Orioles to pitch in a hitter’s park in a nightmare of a division, but wouldn’t touch Kazmir in Oakland.  I wasn’t going to overpay for Kazmir in drafts, but I did take him pretty late where I could and picked him up off the waiver wire where he went undrafted because he was just too good to be sitting there.  He’s available in a lot of 12 team leagues and that just shouldn’t be the case.  Go grab him and hope he holds up physically.

Jenrry Mejia:  Mejia can pitch.  He’s a lot like Johnny Cueto and looks like a lesser version of Pedro Martinez.  Think…Pedro towards the end of his career.  He’ll throw a hook in any count and spot a fastball that only runs 90MPH, but looks 97 after his off speed pitches.  He would have been a lot of analysts favorite sleeper if he had won the 5th starter job for the Mets earlier in Spring Training.  Don’t expect big K numbers, but he’ll help your ERA and WHIP.

Erasmo Ramirez: The Eraser is a personal favorite of mine, but not because I think he’s going to be a top 30 starter or anything.  It’s just the way he pitches.  He spots his fastball and puts a little on and takes a little off all while having a very good change up.  I think his ceiling is Kuroda-esque.

Jake Odorizzi:  I have no doubt that Odorizzi is going to have a big impact on many fantasy teams this season.  I think he has the ability to pitch well enough to have the Rays think twice about giving Hellickson back his rotation spot and he could keep his spot if David Price is moved before the trade deadline.  Odorizzi is one of these young starters that actually found a change up that works early in his career.  If he can continue to hone that change up he can help you win your league.

Nate Eovaldi:  Eovaldi is an underrated commodity in fantasy baseball right now.  The Marlins are an up and coming team (that is currently playing above their talent level on offense) that should help Eovaldi continue to build on his skills.  He is an injury concern and is known as a one-pitch pitcher, but he has tried to work in a league average change up that just might make his hard sinker look even harder.

Jake Odorizzi Change Up

Closers:

Before I start, I know that many of you have had these guys picked up already in your leagues.  These lists are mainly for Fantasy Baseball GM’s that do weekly waivers or Faab.

Sergio Santos:  Santos is one fill-in closer that I would actually target.  There is no guarantee that Casey Janssen will make it back quickly and even if he does, Santos may have already nailed down the closer’s role.  Of the injury fill-ins he’s my top guy.

Jose Valverde:  I was lucky enough to watch a lot of the Mets’ spring training (wait did I just say I was lucky to watch that?, Oh never mind.) and it was clearly visible that there was something wrong with Bobby Parnell.  His velocity was way down and he had no command.  Luckily for the Mets they had given Valverde a shot to make the team and now it looks like he may be the closer for the rest of the year.  (I know that Parnell may try to rehab, but I have my doubts that it will work.)  The Mets have some decent starters (Gee, Wheeler, and Mejia) and not much offense so there should be some opportunity for Valverde to get some saves.

Francisco Rodriguez:  K-Rod is back in the closer’s spotlight thanks to Jim Henderson being out of sorts.  The Brewers strongly hinted that the job will be Henderson’s if and when he gets his stuff together.  Personally I would stay away if I could, but if your league weighs saves heavily then you could do worse than K-Rod.

Josh Fields:  Bo Porter, Houston Astros Manager, is going with the company line that his relievers just get outs when called upon.  I think Fields will get the bulk of the early opportunities and if he pitches the way he did the other night when he nailed down his first save against the Yankees, he may just shift the company stance.

Matt Lindstrom/Nate Jones:  An injury to Jones slowed hi this spring and it gave Matt Lindstrom the chance to win the White Sox closer’s job out of Spring Training.  Both have struggled so far, but I think it will eventually be Jones that wins the job.  For now I would stay away unless I had unlimited DL spots and then I would take a chance on Jones since he’s currently on the DL for a Glute problem.

Jonathan Broxton:  Broxton looks to be the closer in Cincinnati until Aroldis Chapman is fully recovered.  Broxton should be coming off the DL some time next week and Hoover has pitched himself out of the temporary closer situation.  The Reds have a very good rotation that could lead to a bunch of opportunities for Broxton in the short term.

***Check Back Tomorrow For Position Players***

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