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Fantasy Football: New York Giants Start/Sit
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Fantasy Football: New York Giants Start/Sit

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football: New York Giants Start/Sit

Fantasy drafts are finally behind us and now it’s time to put on our best managerial hats and make sure we don’t leave fantasy points on the bench. Nothing drives you more nuts then when you see a matchup that screams huge fantasy production, yet you don’t make the appropriate lineup changes. For example, a reader sent me a start/sit question that screamed matchup play. This particular reader needed advice on who to start as their third wide receiver for week 1 between Steve Smith and Lance Moore. Without looking at the schedule some might say, ” I drafted Steve Smith in the sixth round and Lance Moore in the ninth round, so I should obviously start Smith.” Wrong! Steve Smith is facing the Seattle Seahawks Defense and Lance Moore is playing at home on turf in an expected shootout against the Atlanta Falcons. It might be Moore’s best matchup of the season. Playing the matchups at your flex position or third wide receiver will win you a championship.

Eli Manning: 23-of-34, 264 Yards, 3 TDs

Eli Manning and Kevin Gilbride had to hit the film room to try and get handle on on what to expect from Monte Kiffin’s new 4-3 defense in Dallas. While Kiffin has been out of the NFL the last few years, his core defensive principals are still being used around the league. The key to beating Monte Kiffin’s best defenses was always taking what the defense was willing to give. Exploiting the areas between the deep safeties and linebackers and keeping the chains moving. The last thing you want to do against a Kiffin defense is to get into too many third and longs. I think Eli will be able to work the middle of the field with a combination of Victor Cruz and Brandon Myers and exploit Dallas’s weakness at the safety position. I have Eli as a borderline QB1 for week one and a definite start in 2QB leagues.

David Wilson: 21 carries, 88 yards, 2 receptions 23 yards, 0 TDs

The New York Giants running game will be a little hard to predict out of the gate against the Dallas Cowboys this season. The reshuffled offensive line mixed with some question marks because of injuries further cloud the actual production that should be expected. If Henry Hynoski and David Baas were healthy Wilson may be a top 10 start against the Cowboys, but for now we have to temper our expectations just a bit. I would only keep Wilson on the bench this week if I had started a draft with three straight running backs, or if the league was a full point PPR league where Wilson was my third running back.

Victor Cruz (If Healthy): 8 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD

Victor Cruz is the best chess piece that Gilbride and Manning possess going against Dallas this week. His ability to threaten the entire middle of the field from settling in behind the linebackers to driving past safeties can make a defensive coordinator have nightmares. In a typical “Tampa Two” look the middle linebacker will have deep middle in certain situations and that could be a nightmare for Sean Lee as Victor Cruz blows by him. I have Cruz as one of the best wide receiver plays this week as long as his bruised heel cooperates.

Hakeem Nicks: 4 receptions, 67 yards, 1 TD

Nicks is a bit of a conundrum. He is the guy that made Jerry Jones open up his wallet to sign Brandon Carr and draft Morris Claiborne, but is he still that guy? I have a feeling Hakeem is going to have a very good year this season, but I don’t think this is the ideal matchup for his skill set. If his quickness is there he could find the void between the corner and the safety by beating the Dallas corners at the line of scrimmage, but the odds are slightly against him. I still have him in the top 20 as far as matchups this week, but he is more of a flex play then WR2.

Brandon Myers: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD

Brandon Myers and Manning didn’t exactly inspire confidence in the preseason, but the matchup in week 1 screams tight end production. Myers should be able to exploit the middle of the field and the flats to put up tight end 1 numbers after being almost invisible in the preseason. NumberFire has Brandon Myers as their number seven tight end for week 1 and I think that sounds about right after looking at the macthups.

Rueben Randle: 4 receptions, 52 yards, 0 TDs

While Randle is an important part of what the Giants offense there are too many other good wide receiver matchups around the league to think that Randle should be in anyone’s week 1 fantasy lineup. I like Randle’s long term outlook, but his immediate value is only in the deepest of leagues.

For any of your last minute Fantasy Football questions follow me on Twitter @Coachesser or message me by liking my Facebook Page CoachEsser’s Playbook. If you need start/sit advice fast go to my website www.coachesser.com and use my start/sit widget powered by NumberFire.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Part 2
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Part 2

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Part 2

This is the year of disappearing running back depth. The top of the class is so strong that taking one in the first round can lull an owner into a false sense of security. While picking off studs at other positions you can quickly find yourself with either a very old or very injury prone second running back. The depth looks even worse when you are playing in a standard scoring league with no PPR. Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles go from borderline first round picks in deeper PPR leagues to a 2nd or 3rd running back that you are not too happy about having on your roster in standard leagues. More and more fantasy experts are embracing going with three straight running backs in the first three rounds if the value fits and I am becoming a convert.

Don’t get me wrong there are RB2s with excellent potential. In 10 team leagues I love teams that have Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew as their RB2. In 10 team PPR Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles as RB2s can make an owner look like a genius. I even like veterans that are in the third to fourth-round range like Frank Gore and DeMarco Murray. It’s when you start having Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews as your RB2 that you should lose some sleep. I would also toss and turn if I was relying on a rookies like Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball as well.

The injuries to Jonathan Stewart and LeVeon Bell have further depleted the running backs worth targeting as RB2s in drafts. The injury histories of Rashard Mendenhall, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Chris Ivory make taking them a complete gamble. With all the question marks and speed bumps at running back after the first round I have to say I am very comfortable going RB-RB or even three straight running backs in drafts.

When drafting running backs make sure to look at my running back tiers. (.5 PPR is my basis for scoring)

Tier 1

Adrian Peterson

Tier 2

Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster (not buying the injury), LeSean McCoy

Tier 3

Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris

Tier 4

Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones Drew

Tier 5

Stevan Ridley, DeMarco Murray, David Wilson(Move him up another tier due to injury), Frank Gore, Lamar Miller

Tier 6

Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, Shane Vereen, Giovani Bernard, Daryl Richardson

Tier 7

Eddie Lacy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Montee Ball

Tier 8

Chris Ivory, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Andre Brown(Injured out 4-6 weeks), Mark Ingram

Note: LeVeon Bell is already out of his walking boot and could be a factor in the second month of the season.

There are a few wide receivers that can’t be overlooked when drafting this year. Calvin Johnson is a first-round pick in any scoring system and if you get him at the bottom of the first round count yourself lucky. After Megatron there are a handful of second-round worthy wide receivers that can be drafted before a borderline RB2. Dez Bryant leads this list as he is looking more and more unstoppable after his breakout second half last season. In PPR leagues I am not letting him slide past the 14th pick. A.J. Green is a monster as well, but there a few too many mouths to feed on the Bengalsoffense for him to really push my top two rated wide receivers. Brandon Marshall is a wild card at this point because of his hip issues and his frustration with his recovery. When healthy and with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball there are few wide receivers in the league I would rather have.

The next two guys are neck and neck for me. Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas are both tremendously talented wide receivers who play in high scoring offenses, but both lose targets because of the talented pass catchers they happen to be teammates with. Julio is poised to finally take over the lead roll from Roddy White, but we have said that before. His up and down production can be maddening, but his potential to be dominant is tough to pass up. Demaryius is Peyton Manning’s best target in Denver and only slides down my list because of Eric Decker and Wes Welker stealing targets. Even with limited (for a WR1) opportunities he should top 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Now let’s see how my wide receiver tiers stack up. (.5 PPR is my basis for scoring)

Tier 1

Calvin Johnson

Tier 2

Dez looks poised to join Calvin on top of the WR rankings.

Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas

Tier 3

Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White

Tier 4

Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Randall Cobb

Tier 5

Danny Amendola, Marques Colston, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne,Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon

Tier 6

Wes Welker, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, DeSean Jackson, Eric Decker

Tier 7

James Jones, Cecil Shorts, TY Hilton, Mike Williams, Josh Gordon(suspended 2 games)

Tier 8

Anquan Boldin, Miles Austin, Stevie Johnson, Kenny Britt, Kenbrell Thompkins, Golden Tate, Chris Givens

Tier 9

Tavon Austin, Lance Moore, Michael Floyd, Vincent Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Blackmon

Note: Justin Blackmon will be a WR2 when he comes off his 4 game suspension.

I want to wish everyone a fantastic fantasy football season and would love if my tiers ended up helping you to a championship. Please keep me informed throughout the year by following me on twitter @Coachesser or liking my Facebook page CochEsser’s Playbook. You can also keep in touch by visiting my website www.coachesser.com each week. Every Monday from 8-9 p.m. I am available for your Fantasy Football questions on Google + by stopping by Catching up with the Counselor on #FFCentral.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Part 1
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Part 1

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Part 1

Every fantasy football draft has it’s own rhythm. Some leagues draft quarterbacks like there’s a storm coming and they need to fill that slot before the drat closes. Some leagues march to the beat of the ground game and runningbacks roll off the draft list like dominoes. Calvin Johnson, the only sure thing wide receiver to be a first rounder the last few years, is once again a sure thing first-round producer.

In short, I don’t endorse any particular fantasy football draft strategy because every league is different. You have to be flexible and be prepared for anything. I do think you should have a best-case and worst-case contingency plan already worked out. There’s nothing worse than picking a guy early who you didn’t think would make it to you and not being prepared to draft his handcuff at the proper point later on in the draft.

One example of this possibly happening this year would be if you were picking late in the first round and everyone was scared off of Arian Foster because of his lingering back issue. You immediately jump at the chance to draft a possible top 3 fantasy player without ever thinking about what pick you’ll have to spend to get his backup, Ben Tate, later in the draft. Believe me you will be sorry when you glance at your draft magazine printed in April and it shows Ben Tate as a ninth-round pick. You sit and wait and your buddy takes Tate in the seventh and you’re left worrying the rest of the year that Foster might get hurt, or worse, forced to make a lopsided trade to get a backup.

The one thing you don’t want to do is force a pick at a position that is deep. Usually the onesie positions are pretty deep from year to year. This year they are extremely deep. There are tiers to each position in fantasy football, but quarterback and tight end have a very small top tier and then a bunch of guys that should all finish bunched up at the end of the season.

QB Top Tier

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

QB 2nd Tier

Peyton Manning

Cam Newton

Matt Ryan

QB 3rd Tier

QB 4th Tier

The rest are all QB 2 types, but anyone (Except Mark Sanchez) could make a jump up the list.

TE Top Tier

Jimmy Graham

TE 2nd Tier

Jason Witten

(injury concern) Rob Gronkowski

TE 3rd Tier

Vernon Davis

Tony Gonzalez

TE 4th Tier

Greg Olsen

TE 5th Tier

Jared Cook

TE 6th Tier

(Fast Riser) Zach Sudfeld

When drafting either of these positions it’s all about what you’re comfortable doing. If you need a must start QB with no questions asked week in and week out then you need to stick to those top two tiers and pay whatever price your draft dictates. If you don’t mind playing matchups and banking on a quarterback bouncing back to an elite level (Matthew Stafford) or taking a leap to an elite level (Andrew Luck) then you can wait until QB tier 3 guys start to come off the board and build up your team elsewhere in the meantime.

Tight end is a position I largely ignore. I don’t mean I ignore projections an analyzing the position. I mean that I try not to get sucked into drafting a tight end too early in a draft unless it’s a guy that’s a difference maker at a clear cut value. Jimmy Graham in the mid-second round. VALUE! Rob Gronkowski or Jason Witten in the fifth round. VALUE! Anyone after that will have to wait until the ninth round for me to even consider taking a look. There are just too many good players available (Cecil Shorts III, Michael Williams,Anquan Boldin, T.Y. Hilton) in the sixth through eighth rounds for me to take a tight end who can get outscored by someone taken in the 12th round. Don’t force it just to get a starter’s spot filled.

Check back next week when I go over my final running back and wide receiver tiers and let you know how I will be attacking every fantasy football draft this year.

This article was originally featured at www.bigblueview.com on Friday August 23rd, 2013.

Fantasy Football: Handcuffs

I am completely in favor of avoiding handcuff situations in almost all circumstances. To spice up a relationship might be the only acceptable circumstance, but even there I’m afraid of what the wife might do. When it comes to a fantasy football draft there aren’t many things more nerve racking than drafting an injured or injury prone player early and playing the guessing game on when to draft his handcuff for the rest of the draft. I know in my home leagues some guys will take your handcuff early just to spite you for something you did to them in high school. (or with their sister.)

This year Arian Foster has again become an early season injury concern. Reports about his back problems have some GMs running to the hills and I don’t blame them. Most experts have dropped him below the top 10 running back tier that he was locked into all off season. I am not dropping him that far YET, but I will be more cautious when drafting in the 7-11 slots before his week 1 status is confirmed.

I am always reluctant to draft an injured or recovering player in the first few rounds for good reason. Somewhere out there Domanick Williams owes me a beer for drafting him in the second round in the late summer of 2005 in my best home league. Needless to say we had to draft early because of my impending nuptials and my wedding present was a player who would be put on IR. So maybe I have a bias against Houston running backs, wouldn’t you.

The main reason I never liked drafting Foster in the first place was the cost of Ben Tate. Yes Tate is an excellent back-up RB capable of putting up RB1 numbers if called upon, but his ADP has always been much higher than other handcuff candidates. With Foster’s back injury Tate could climb into the top of the 7th round and if you took Foster in the middle of the first you may have to bite the bullet and take Tate in the 6th. Two top 6 picks on a pair of RBs where only one will have RB1-RB2 status at any given time. Absolutely not happening for me.

I would much rather take David Wilson in the late third of a 12 team league or in the 4th of a 10 team league and take Andre Brown later in the draft. Those are two handcuffs that will contribute to your team week in and week out. By waiting on Wilson and Brown I am able to stack my team with a top RB and WR in the first two rounds and still build depth and usefulness at the running back position later. If I took Foster in the first I would be forced to blow that 6th round pick on Tate instead of taking a valuable player like Tom Brady or Matt Ryan in that spot.

The only first round running back who’s handcuff actually intrigues me is LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown. With Chip Kelly’s offense putting up huge rushing numbers and the fact that Brown will get plenty of touches all on his own makes these two my ideal first round handcuff situation. Chris Polk scared a few GMs away from Brown earlier in the summer when he went ahead of Brown in the Eagles’ backfield pecking order, but I suspect that was just a motivational ploy by Chip Kelly. Brown is far and away the superior talent behind McCoy and is the one of the only back up running backs in the league who could push top eight numbers if there was an injury to the starter. Brown’s cost is low right now at right around the 90th overall pick as seen on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

Fantasy Football:NY Giants BreakoutCandidates
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Fantasy Football:NY Giants BreakoutCandidates

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football:NY Giants BreakoutCandidates

The New York Giants are one of the key teams this year in fantasy football. While some teams are almost entirely ignored during drafts, like our neighbors the New York Jets, the Giants have seven players that will be drafted in almost every 12 team fantasy football league. Here we take a look at all seven and their potential to breakout.

Eli Manning– Eli’s fantasy football stock has come down since last year and that’s just fine by me. While Eli was unable to match his 2011 numbers in 2012, he may be able to surpass those 2011 numbers this year. Eli will rely on a veteran offensive line to keep him upright as he looks to put up huge numbers. The loss of Ahmad Bradshaw will be tough as he was an excellent pass blocking running back and was proven pass catcher out of the backfield.Andre Brown and David Wilson will vie for their touches in the passing game, but only if they can pick up the blitz when called upon. A healthy Hakeem Nicks, a content Victor Cruz, and an emerging Rueben Randle will have defensive backfields on their heels. Brandon Myers is a steady tight end who is an excellent route runner and has soft hands which will be a nice addition for Manning. With all of these weapons Eli could break his career highs and reach the golden QB territory of 5, 000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. One thing he will not and should not do is run with the ball.

David Wilson – I may sound like I am beating a dead drum, but David Wilson’s talent will be hard to ignore. He must prove himself a willing blocker before he gets the keys to the Giants’ backfield, but his skills are undeniable. His biggest comparison player in fantasy football has been C. J. Spiller who was a break out star last year after starting the season as the second running back in Buffalo. Talented backs like Spiller and Wilson are hard to keep on the bench especially after they pick up the nuances of the pro game. if Wilson averages 15 touches a game he is an excellent RB2 this season.

Andre Brown – I fully expect Andre Brown to be a big piece of this offense if he stays healthy. Brown totaled 8 rushing touchdowns last year in limited duty and will be the featured goal-line back this season. His ADP is extremely low for his scoring potential and might be one of the best value picks of a fantasy football draft this year. If Brown gets 15+ touches plus goal-line work he will be a low-end RB2 and excellent flex option.

Hakeem Nicks – Hakeem’s skills are never in question, it’s just his health. With Nicks being extra careful this offseason and not pushing through little injuries here and there, he will be entering the season the healthiest he has been in at least two years. With the extra motivation of a big free agent pay day hanging over his head he could outperform his current ADP by leaps and bounds. He had been drafted as the 5th WR off the boars in previous drafts and now he is being drafted somewhere around the 16th wide receiver off the board. He can easily be a top 8 wide receiver if he stays healthy. 70-85 receptions,1200-1350 Yards, 8-12 TDs should be easily attainable if he is healthy.

Victor Cruz – Victor Cruz could have had a lost season if the Giants didn’t step up to the plate and sign their star receiver from Patterson New Jersey. With Cruz reporting to training camp with a fat new contract in hand he will be eager to live up the money. Sometimes that pressure can be tough to overcome, but Cruz has faced tougher challenges in life and come out on top. I expect Cruz to continue his dominance as one of the best inside wide receivers in the game as he has already shaken off the rust and linked up with Eli Manning in the preseason for a 57 yard touchdown against the Steelers. 80-90 receptions, 1100-1300 yards and 9-11 touchdowns would be an excellent season for this Giants’ star.

Rueben Randle – I have already posted today about Randle’s break out potential, but it’s worth noting that Kevin Gilbride has been personally singled out Randle time and time again during training camp and OTA’s as being one of the best Giants on the practice field. His time may not be this year as he could be Nicks eventual replacement, but in deeper leagues Randle could be a great lottery ticket. If there is an injury to a starting wide receiver there may be no more talented receiver, who’s currently not a starter, to step up and take his place. I expect Randle to have 40-50 receptions for 800-900 yards and 6-8 touchdowns.

Brandon Myers – While in most 10 team leagues Myers may be overlooked on draft day he is being drafted on most sites as the 13th tight end going off the board. Myers production will pale in comparison to his 2012 season in Oakland where he was the only option in the passing game, but he will be a nice piece to the Giants passing game puzzle. His route running savvy and soft hands will make an excellent fourth option in the Giants passing attack. I expect Myers to have 45-60 receptions, 500-650 yards, and 6-10 touchdowns. Not bad numbers for your back up tight end.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on July 17th, 2013.

Jimmy Graham in the 2nd or Bust!

First of all I am not saying that you definitely have to take Jimmy Graham in the 2nd round of Fantasy Football drafts, but if he is available at pick 20 overall then it’s a slam dunk pick. I’m talking Dr. J posterizing Michael Cooper type of pick. (What, you don’t know who Dr. J is? Fine, Blake Griffin over Kendrick Perkins.) Getting a tight end that’s head and shoulders above all the others is awesome, but getting one that could put up wide receiver 1 type numbers is a huge bonus. What type of numbers are we talking? Well some fantasy pundits think Jimmy Graham can get to 100+ catches with 1500 yards and 15 TDS. Those numbers are ridiculous by normal tight end standards, but only sound outlandish. In 2011 Graham had 111 catches, 1468 yards and 14 TDs and he had room to grow.

Crazy Numbers

Jimmy Graham’s 2011 TE numbers Compared to Last year’s Highest scoring WRs

Jimmy Graham scored 341.8 fantasy points in 2011

Calvin Johnson scored 348.4 total fantasy points in 2012

Brandon Marshall scored 334.8 fantasy points in 2012

Andre Johnson scored 323.5 fantasy points in 2012

Yeah, so when you’re faced with taking Graham or Demaryius Thomas or Julio Jones just look at those numbers. When healthy Jimmy Graham will outscore every wide receiver in the league not named Megatron and plays a position where there is precipitous drop off after he is drafted. I’m not condoning taking him in the first round like some other guys are, but I definitely see their point. I just don’t like the way my team looks after taking Jimmy graham in the first round. My running backs end up being either a year away from social security or rookies that are a complete mystery.

I’m much more comfortable taking a running back or Calvin Johnson in the first round of a draft. I tend to like how my team looks on paper after the draft and it helps me sleep at night. When I go running back in the first round I feel like there is an opportunity to take Jimmy Graham in the second round because I already have that security blanket. Just call me Linus hanging onto C. J. Spiller with all my might. I will take Jimmy Graham before almost every receiver after Calvin Johnson. The only one that gives me pause is Dez Bryant because of his Megatron-lite like qualities.

If I don’t get Graham in the second round you can count on me putting the tight end blinders on until the 10th round. 10th round, really? Yep, I will only look at tight ends if there is a tremendous value. I will contemplate Gronk at the bottom of the 4th round if my top 14 WRs have all been taken. I will look at Jason Witten in the middle of the 5th if I’m not happy with what’s there at runningback or wide-receiver. Almost every time they haven’t made it to where I would be willing to pick them. So on the blinders go until the 10th.

The 9th round is usually the toughest to hold off because the ADP usually is pushing Greg Olsen or Jared Cook, but I can always find a wide receiver or a high upside back up running back to take. I do like Olsen because he is legitimately the number 2 passing target in Carolina, but there are similar tight ends available much later. Jared Cook is said to be the new slot favorite of Sam Bradford, but I have heard his virtues sung from many a Titans training camp only to have a giant hole on my roster.

the 10th round is where I start to survey the tight end landscape and usually to my surprise some very decent tight ends have fallen. Guys like Jermichael Finley, Owen Daniels, and Martellus Bennett are usually available in the 10th round and you can look at other owners roster dept to plan your course of attack. I usually take Bennett out of the equation as I have never been a fan of his sloppy route running, but I do like the huge chunks of yardage Owen Daniels rips off in the Texans play action passing game. If Daniels isn’t on the board I have to back to Jermichael Finley once again.

The guy has burned me more times than Dunkin Donuts coffee, but I will still go back for more. Finley’s impending free agency and his age (only 26) make for a great opportunity for him to cash in big time if he has a huge year. He has the talent, but he is only the fourth option in the Packers’ vaunted passing offense. It’s better now that Greg Jennings has moved on to Minnesota, but I would still be more comfortable with Daniels because of his position in the pecking order in Houston.

Let’s say I miss out on all those guys in the 10th round. Should I panic? Heck no! I still have options. Jordan Cameron of the Browns becomes my new tight end obsession. I will him to come to me in the 11th or 12 rounds. It’s just that simple. I wish for it and he appears. The power of positive thinking! (or some bullshit) Again if there is another sneaky GM just in front of me who happens to steal him from me I turn my sites to some guys that were once considered tight end 1 material. I start to go after Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis and ~~Dustin Keller~~ like there’s no tomorrow. And usually there isn’t a tomorrow because I am doing this at the very end of drafts.(Note:Dustin Keller suffered a career threatening knee injury last night.)

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my affections for Tyler Eifert and Zach Sudfeld. Two huge targets that are going to be a big part of their passing games. I love to pair them with a seasoned veteran as a high upside TE2.

Looking up and having Brandon Pettigrew as my starting tight end might not feel very good, but it’s a lot more comforting than having Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray as my RB1! Take it from me you will sleep better at night waiting on a tight end than drafting anyone, but Jimmy Graham in the early rounds.

Fantasy Football: 5 Questions from Razzball

When J.B. Gilpin and the guys at Razzball were looking for the best source possible to answer some burning questions about the New York Giantsand their fantasy football outlook heading into the 2013 season they turned to Big Blue View and your resident fantasy football expert. I was glad to answer their questions using all of the information we at Big Blue View have gathered this offseason, and while the interview was conducted in July almost all of the answers still ring true. While I answered questions about many of the current New York Giants I wanted to highlight one particular question about whether or not the Giants offense could support 3 fantasy relevant wide receivers this season. The full interview can be seen here at Razzball.

Razzball: We’ve seen the Giants passing attack support three WRs in year’s past, with Rueben Randle getting some preseason hype. Louis Murphy and Ramses Barden (who had the big breakout game in week 3 last year and reminded me of the Eli/Plaxico connection) are also a little interesting as guys to keep on the radar. Do you see a fantasy-relevant WR3 emerge this year?

Dennis: I don’t see Barden being a fantasy option this year unless there are major injury problems for the Giants. I love that Randle got all the first team reps during OTAs as Nicks and Cruz were no shows. The talk was that he looked lightyears ahead of last offseason and Kevin Gilbride even spoke about him seeing the field a lot. I really like Randle’s athleticism and if he improved his route-running and coverage reads on option routes as has been intimated then he could be a very nice flex option in fantasy football this year. His leaping ability and knack for making big catches could see him getting some red zone targets. Murphy is the type of outside receiver the Giants needed as another option. Eli works the numbers as well as any quarterback in the league and Murphy is very adept at working that area. If there is an injury to Nicks or Randle, Murphy should be on the fantasy radar.”

I wrote this response almost a full month ago, but feel like the fantasy world is just latching on to the idea that the Giants will indeed feature three excellent fantasy wide receivers this season. Rueben Randle only touched the ball once in the Giants first preseason game, but managed to make people sit up and take notice with his electrifying 18 yard reception. Randle’s near miss on a long pass attempt from Eli was just another prime example of how the Giants are going to use this emerging chess piece.

While participating in many expert mock drafts this summer I have seen Randle’s draft stock rise steadily through out the off season. There was a time early in the summer where Randle would come off the board after the 13th round as a wide receiver 6 in 12 team leagues and now he is going off the boards in the 10th round as a wide receiver 4. His WR ranking has gone from the mid 50s to the low 40s just on training camp news and one catch in the preseason. His value is even higher in best ball formats where his big play ability can see him help teams from week to week with out hurting them when the Giants choose to feature a different receiver against a certain defensive look. His overall numbers won’t be all that impressive as he is the Giants’ third receiving option, but a stat line of 40-50 receptions, 800-900 yards, and 6-8 touchdowns could be a very nice flex option.

His ADP is clearly going up as you can see from this chart generated athttp://fantasyfootballcalculator.com

You can read the full interview here at www.razzball.com to see what the fantasy football world wants to know about our New York Giants.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on August 12th, 2013

Fantasy Football-No Absolute Truths

Early August is a dangerous time for the casual fantasy football player. The calendar page flips and draft dates start being thrown around in a never ending email stream. While checking their kid’s play date schedules they check their favorite fantasy pundit’s twitter page. They coast in and out of twitter conversations and check the occasional blog post. They see a few experts agree with an upside potential of a fantasy running back and never think to check back before their draft. It’s for these types of GMs that I write this warning.

STAY DILIGENT!

These casual GMs may have spied some great fantasy minds talking about how Montee Ball was a touchdown machine in college and will be a favorite of Peyton Manning. They tuck this information away and immediately put Montee Ball at the top of their rookie running back chart and never hear about the weight that Ronnie Hillman gained in the off-season, or his excellent start to training camp.

There’s a reason that fantasy “experts” make the right choices during drafts. They have all the information available. They follow the beat writers. They follow the film guys. (www.footballguys.com or www.ProFootballFocus.com) They follow the the stats and metrics guys. (www.RotoViz.com or www.numberfire.com) They also take all the views of the trusted opinion guys and make their own conclusions based on the strength of the arguments for and against certain players. (there are so many that I won’t mention anyone by name.)

I think it helps me in fantasy football that I am a skeptical person at heart. I wasn’t always this way. I was as gullible as they came when I was younger. If you came up to me on the street and told me that you were a football expert and believed that Jake Plummer was the next great fantasy quarterback, I may have believed you. (Stranger on the street or ESPN the magazine, what’s the difference.) Slowly over the years I have become more and more wary of people who offer free advise.

You can never have an absolute “truth” in fantasy football. If you don’t believe me, please don’t read any further. I may ruin some of your preconceived notions. I may have to spoil the fact that there’s no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy or even that rich Prince in Nigeria trying to wire you money. The “truth” that fantasy experts advertise is a conclusion based on many, many factors that if they all align will see itself play out. This year we have the closest things to “truths” at the top of every positional ranking. Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham are all the odds on favorites to top their categories in fantasy scoring. If any or all weren’t to finish at the top of their category it would surprise me, but I wouldn’t lose a night of sleep over it. (Unless I owned all of them!)

For example, while I was looking back at last year’s Rotoworld draft rankings for my long standing standard scoring league I realized that they had Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson as their 11th and 12th rated running backs in that particular scoring system. Do I blame them? Absolutely not. A lot of people were scared off of Peterson after the knee injury, while others were skeptical of Lynch with an unsettled quarterback situation. Imagine if I had picked at 12 in a snake draft and Calvin Johnson had gone in his customary top 7 spot. I would have had Lynch and Peterson at the 1-2 turn there for the taking. Would I have pulled the trigger in that scenario? Who knows, but it makes me feel good to know that those types of things play out every year.

As Dick Vermeil said,”If you don’t invest very much, then defeat doesn’t hurt very much and winning is not very exciting.”

Invest the time this year and see all the angles of the bigger picture. Take it all in and form your own opinions using every scrap of available information. Whether it’s playing the late round quarterback game, or getting Drew Brees at all costs, it doesn’t matter. As long as you know all the factors to the equation.

Fantasy Football: Pittsburgh Steelers’ WRs ADP

The Pittsburgh Steelers are known for their Super Bowl titles and their rabid towel waving fan base. During the Bill Cowher era they were known as a ground and pound offense that often threw in an ingenious trick play here and there. Mike Tomlin didn’t skip a beat when he took over as head coach for Bill Cowher as he was able to raise another championship banner into the ring of honor. Now five years removed from their last Super Bowl title the Steelers look like a team in transition.

Can you name the last Steelers’ wide receiver besides Hines Ward to have over 80 receptions? (Answer below)

The team had changed its identity under former offensive coordinator Bruce Arians from a ground and pound offense to an all out aerial assault. Deep throws to Mike Wallace were the scare tactic that kept defenses honest, allowing Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace to pick up cheap yardage on quick screens and pick plays. The fact that Big Ben managed to escape pressure with ease only helped mask the eroding skills of the offensive line.

Last year marked another change in offensive philosophy as Mike Tomlin brought in Todd Haley to change the culture of the offense. Todd Haley wanted to reintroduce a running game with play action principals, but early season injuries on the offensive line as well as inconsistent running-back play left the offense without an identity. The shortened offseason could not have hindered Haley and Roethlisberger’s chemistry any more than it did. the only player that seemed to benefit from the chaos was the always over looked Heath Miller. His 71 receptions led the Steelers and his 8 touchdowns helped make him a top six tight end in 2012. Before we get overly excited we should remember the last time we saw him his knee was being torn to shreds and he isn’t currently ready for training camp.

The reason I chose to take a look at the Steelers is because I am constantly faced with a decision on Antonio Brown in the late fifth round of drafts. If I am going to go wide receiver the ADP always suggests Antonio Brown versus Pierre Garcon. If I decide to go running back I can gamble on Shane Vereen or take a sliding rookie like Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball. I usually go with Garcon or Vereen every time. I go with Garcon if my WR2 is a little weak and I go with Vereen if my RB2 is an injury prone guy.

I know, I know I sound like a guy who’s been burned by Antonio Brown before, (and I am!) but after looking at the Steelers offense and his particular skill set I can not justify taking him this early in drafts. First of all he has never topped 70 catches. Yet he is going off the board in every mock like he’s a guaranteed 90 catch guy. He topped 1100 yards in 2011, but scored only 2 touchdowns. The last time I checked those count as six points. (this isn’t Russia is it?)

After breaking down the Steeles offensive film and looking at the current weapons on the roster I see them going back to a run first offense. Heavy doses of LeVeon Bell and Isaac Redman can be expected. Antonio Brown will probably top 75 catches, but his TD total will be between 4-6 and not the 8-10 that we can get later in the draft. He is not a red zone threat and he is not the playmaker that Mike Wallace was. He is a very nice #2 receiver, but that’s the problem with the Steelers. They are full of #2 receivers. Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and the newest addition Markus Wheaten would all be looked at as flankers or slot receivers in most offenses.

I don’t have a problem with #2 receivers. They can be useful fantasy receivers in certain formats and can help a team that is loaded at RB and the onesie positions to fantasy championships. With my draft philosophy banking on drafting quarterbacks and tight ends late, #2 receivers don’t help me all that much. I need the bulk of my lineup (RBs and WRs) to outscore the other guy week in and week out and Antonio Brown is not going to help with that.

The one receiver that may help my team is Emmanuel Sanders. The New England Patriots thought enough of Sanders to try and sign him away from the Steelers in the offseason with a tricky one year deal that the Steelers were forced to match. Sanders will now play out his one year deal as a Steeler with a much bigger role in place. The Steelers’ SBnation page put his excpectations at 70 catches and over 1000 yards. Not a bad return for a wide receiver currently going at the 106th pick in drafts.

Wait did I say 106 overall. That’s gotta be a misprint. Nope it’s confirmed here at www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. That’s right, a receiver that even the Steelers expect to produce those numbers is going a full five rounds later than Antonio Brown.

How can this be? Why the disparity in ADP?

I’ll tell you why. The fantasy football world is a thick headed bunch. Everyone and their mother thought Antonio Brown was going to explode last year and when he came up short people chalked it up using every excuse in the book. The list is long, the short training camp, the offensive coordinator change, the big contract was weighing on him. I’ve heard it all except the answer that I want to hear. WE WERE WRONG. It happens.

Don’t get me wrong, Antonio Brown is a very good football player, but he will never be a consistent top 20 fantasy wide receiver and will never live up to his 59.8 overall ADP. He is a better football player than Emmanuel Sanders will probably ever be, but if I can get Emmanuel Sanders in the 10th round of a fantasy football draft I will like him a whole lot more than I will like Antonio Brown in the 5th.

Keep this in mind when Antonio Brown comes up as your suggested pick in drafts and please learn from my mistakes.

(Answer-Yancy Thigpen had 85 receptions to go along with 1307 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1995)

The New York Giants Dynasty Darlings

The entire reason I was drawn to fantasy sports as a child was a growing frustration with the New York Yankees shortsighted view during the 1980s. The Yankees were world famous for giving away their best talent while trying to recapture the glory of the late 70s during my formative years. The names read like an 1980s All-Star roster as they traded away the likes of Willie McGee, Fred McGriff, Jose Rijo,Doug Drabek, and my all time favorite (because of Seinfeld) Jay Buhner.

Meanwhile in the swamps of New Jersey George Young and Bill Parcells were putting together an organization and a team that would rival the greats of the 1980s. Building through defense and ball control offense the Giants slowly gained momentum until they were perennial Super Bowl contenders and the envy of all New York franchises during that time period. Bill Parcells got all the accolades and made for good sound bites, but it was George Young and his scouting department that made it possible for Parcells to work his magic.

The man in the funny glasses on the phone on draft day is who I always wanted to be. Unfortunately for me, my career and passions took me in another direction, but I am able to scratch that inner GM itch by playing Dynasty and Keeper league fantasy football. Dynasty leagues aren’t for everyone. They are for that true fantasy football fanatic that never wants the season to end. I equate dynasty leagues versus redraft leagues to when Madden and NCAA football made dynasty mode available. Some people could have cared less, because it was a purely social bragging rights thing for them to play with their friends and others went crazy playing month after month by themselves just to get Rutgers to the Fiesta Bowl on expert level. (Took me four excruciating seasons)

Anyone can win from year to year in Re-Draft leagues if you know what you are doing and everyone else in your leagues make the same mistakes continuously, but in Dynasty it takes a special kind of patience and foresight to make a continuous winner. If you have a keen eye for undervalued talent and players that may emerge in a year or two then dynasty and keeper leagues are for you. If you buy a draft guide the day of your draft and don’t keep up with the league after the Super Bowl then I would stick to Re-draft leagues if I were you.

As a Giant fan this is a very interesting year to be in Dynasty and Keeper leagues.David Wilson’s draft stock will rise and fall with every blurb from training camp in Re-draft leagues, but in Dynasty his talent is harder to overlook. In a start up Dynasty League mock draft I did with some writers in June, David Wilson went at the 16th overall pick. I was bummed I didn’t get him because of what he showed at the end of last year. Yes Tom Couglin and Kevin Gilbride like to use two backs, but they also can produce excellent fantasy backs while rotating the touches. David Wilson is a rare back that combines speed and toughness when he gets the ball in his hands. If he is able to become the lead back the sky is the limit. The comparisons to C.J. Spiller will continue to get louder until you are thinking they are one and the same by draft day.

Here Dynasty Football Warehouse’s Leo Paciga (AKA @FFHoudini) shows an interesting side by side of both C.J Spiller and David Wilson’s stats during their rookie years.

Spiller’s stats as a rookie

74 rushes, 283 yards, 0 TD’s
24 receptions 157 yards, 1 TD
44 KO returns, 1014 yards 1 TD (23.0 yard avg)

Wilson’s stats as a rookie

71 rushes, 358 yards, 4 TD’s
4 receptions, 34 yards, 1 TD
57 KO returns, 1533 yards, 1 TD (26.8 yard avg)

Currently C.J. Spiller is going in the top 5 of dynasty drafts just to give you a frame of reference to where David Wilson could be being drafted next year in startup dynasty leagues. I think his mid 2nd round ADP is still a value and could be tempted to take him at the 1-2 turn in leagues.

In Leo’s article that was written in March the Giants wide receiver situation was still in flux as both Cruz and Nicks looked to be potential training camp hold outs. What he wrote then still hold true today as Rueben Randle is an excellent dynasty draft pick at his current ADP. Randle has been going in the 9th to 10th rounds of startup dynasty leagues and very well could be a contributor this year. That’s the key with guys like Wilson and Randle. They can help you win now and may be in a position next year to help you dominate. With Nicks health always being a question Randle could see his value skyrocket if Nicks comes up lame again. Thinking forward to next year he would be a starter if the Giants let Nicks walk. Anyway you look at it Randle is an excellent pick in the 9th round range.

With Victor Cruz being relatively young and staring in an excellent passing offense he will be looked at at least a round earlier in Dynasty leagues. Cruz is valued in round two in dynasty leagues where he usually goes in the bottom of the third round in redrafts.Hakeem Nicks is the wildcard wide receiver for the Giants. His dynasty league fantasy value is depressed because of the injury history, but in a contract year you may hit the jackpot when you take him. If he resigns with the Giants and stays healthy he is an excellent dynasty WR capable of being a top 10 WR for years to come. If he decides to sign somewhere else you better hope for your sake as a dynasty owner that its somewhere that throws the ball. I have a feeling he could be in Carolina next season, but that’s purely speculation on my part.

One more key to Dynasty versus Redraft is the amount of trades that happen. A reader from our community contacted me with questions about dynasty leagues and the first thing I told him was there will always be trade talk. If you are like me and put talking trades right at the top of the list of reasons why fantasy sports are great than you have to think about joining a dynasty or keeper league. The season literally never ends and it actually is great for friendships as you talk to your league mates way more than you would if you were only in a redraft league together.

Please join the summer fantasy football conversation on Twitter by following me@Coachesser and visit me on Facebook and give my page CoachEsser’s Playbook a like if you want be the first to hear about any new articles or happenings in the fantasy sports world. Also visit me at www.coachesser.com to get all of my pre-season rankings and view my other articles featured around the web.

Note when I talk about drafts it is always based off of 12 team leagues and PPR scoring.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on Sunday July 28th, 2013