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The Pull of the Waiver Wire

The call of the waiver wire is as irresistible as a Siren calling me towards a rocky shore. I cannot help but peek constantly at all of the unwanted players that could be the key to a championship season. The songs are full of homeruns and stolen bases, but when you get up close you realize they are actually strikeouts and hitless nights. Unwanted relievers that look like save opportunities are actually WHIP and ERA killers dressed as shaky closers.

While it has been a long time since I have visited the baseball version of this island, my years of fantasy football have prepared me to navigate these rough waters. Some early season struggles of mid-round picks may send some GMs to dispatch their weak link early. Meanwhile, it can be a great place to buy low for the knowledgeable GM.

Some names that recently hit the waiver wire in my head-to-head league include late round sleepers, solid bench players, and even a former MVP. These players include Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner, and Justin Morneau. None of these players are going to make or break a fantasy team, but I had to pinch myself to see if this was a waiver wire reality or a free agent fantasy.

Both real and fantasy baseball pundits have repeatedly proclaimed that “Moustakas is going to hit.” Maybe so. But for now I would rather hold the fort down with guys like Chris Johnson and Jason Donaldson until Moustakas figures it out…on my bench. Brett Gardner was supposed to fill your stolen base quota, but instead he has opened the season like he was stuck in second gear. If he’s not stealing now, he will be later in the year. Don’t let another GM reap the benefits of your quick trigger finger.

Kyle Seager has way too much upside to put on the waiver wire, even if he is batting against the wind. Seager is someone you should hold on to, especially since he is eligible at second base in some leagues. Even with his recent hot streak, his batting average hasn’t surpassed .250 which is demonstrative of how poorly he started the season. Finally, I was quite surprised to see 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau on the waiver wire. Granted, if he is not hitting for power then he can possibly drag your team down in several roto categories. But he appears healthy and is a strong candidate to be traded at some point during the season. He would be worth your while to simply stash on your bench until he gets hot later in the year.

Moving on to the pitchers, many big names have surprisingly found their way to the waiver wire after failing to quickly rekindle their past glory. Dan Haren and Josh Johnson are two prime examples as GM’s might begin to hit their ejector seat buttons. (Chad Billingsley was originally on this list before it was revealed he required Tommy John surgery). Haren has been very shaky after a terrible 2012 season,and I see him as surplus to requirements in almost every format. Johnson is one of the most injury-prone pitchers in baseball, and is playing in a park that is not very friendly to sinker-ball pitchers. He got off to a very poor start in 2013, but he can still be a fantasy asset and is playing for a contract which is always an added motivating factor.

Finally, I must acknowledge that I have been greatly amused watching the train wreck otherwise known as the always-evolving “Closer Carousel.” Newly acquired Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan started out hot, cooled off, got hurt, and now looks like an afterthought with the job Andrew Bailey is doing. Carlos Marmol and John Axford lost their jobs during Week 1 with epic failures. Then Marmol has some success pitching in a setup role. As soon as he is given another chance to protect a lead, he fails…again. I mostly put his recent blown save on his manager, who brought him in the day after throwing over thirty pitches in a two inning outing. Not to mention Joey Votto was overdue against him and a runner was already in scoring position. I, like most GMs, are happy to avoid the headaches and indigestion that some of these bad closers can cause. The Detroit Tigers closing situation has been like a Mike Shanahan running back competition. First it is this guy, then it is that guy, and now it’s Jose Valverde all over again. There is a very good chance that this will change again by the time this article is published.

PS Axford might get his closers job back………

You can also see this article featured at Fantasyjudgment.com as Coach Dennis’s Diary

Bad Picks = Bad Beats

Now three weeks into the season, it is easy to start second-guessing yourself. Do you have a gaping hole in your lineup thanks to an early round gamble on an injury-prone star such as Jose Reyes? Has that “sure thing” and “can’t miss”stud turned into a bench-warming nightmare such as Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp? Are you paying the “Price” for taking last year’s Cy Young winners and overlooking Matt Harvey later on in the draft? Is “Cain” not able? Rather than dwell on all of your mistakes, you should bask in the glory of the small victories you attained.

It is easy to get down on yourself and play Monday morning quarterback. Instead, try and focus on all the smart picks you made. Maybe you took late bloomer Chris Davis in the later rounds and have been reaping the benefits of his newfound confidence ever since. If so, your own confidence as a GM should grow as well. Maybe you went with your gut looking for an outfielder and grabbed Dexter Fowler, and in the process bypassed roto darlings Brett Gardner and Angel Pagan. Maybe you are skeptical of medical records and physicals so you drafted Mike Napoli and now look like a genius. Or, maybe you smartly grabbed an established second baseman such as Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler instead of getting tempted by Jason Kipnis or Emilio Bonifacio.

Focusing only on the missteps can drive a fantasy baseball GM mad. I would equate this mentality to the poker player who dwells on his bad beats. You played the hand by the percentages and with perfect mathematical precision, but the other guy just happened to get lucky. You can drive yourself crazy replaying these hands and bad picks, over and over again. But eventually, you realize you could not and should not have done anything differently. After all, David Price at the top of the third round is something I would take any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

As the saying goes, focus on the good things and don’t let the bad get you down. Don’t let early season struggles become a cancer on your fantasy team. I realize symbolizing an under-performing fantasy baseball as a cancer is a bit extreme, but it fits. Think about it – the GM feels as if the struggling player is sucking the life from his team, but most likely that player is too good to drop (think BJ Upton, Jason Heyward, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ike Davis). You should not be running around your league trying to trade your bad apple because that apple will look awfully rotten if the other GMs get to talking.

It is advisable to hold on to the underperforming star player and think long-term. They can always be stashed on your bench during serious cold streaks. Do not make rash or impulsive waiver wire decisions based on these early season anomalies. Instead, you can make up the difference by picking up valuable players while dropping the dead weight. Players like Jhoulys Chacin (currently on 15-day DL) and Ross Detwiler would be nice upgrades for some of the bigger names that are droppable such as Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson. Don’t rush to drop Jarrod Parker, Josh Johnson, or Brandon Morrow. They have too much upside to put out on the waiver-wire right now.

Back to Bases!

Welcome back to fantasy baseball (insert my best Horshack voice). No, I am not that old that the last time I participated in a league was during the time of bellbottoms and Oscar Gamble’s afro. Rather, it was during the time of flannels and the greatness of Seattle, both in music and on the field. This is my ongoing diary for Fantasy Judgment of my experience venturing back into fantasy baseball. I will provide insight and observations throughout the season of my team, league, and general perception of fantasy baseball from the perspective of someone who has been out of the game for awhile and is now back. Think of me as the Unfrozen Caveman Fantasy Baseball Player. FIRE BAD!

Pearl Jam A lot has changed since the late 1990’s. Seattle is now known for its coffee and its baseball team is a cellar dweller with only a few players worth drafting. (Editor’s Note: thanks to the Houston Astros, the Mariners are almost guaranteed not to finish in last place in the AL West). The players around the league don’t quite fill out the uniforms, or the box scores, the way they did in the 1990’s. It is no secret that players’ statistics today pale in comparison with those achieved before the Mitchell Report. Gone are the days of middle infielders dominating the homerun and RBI categories (thanks Bret Boone). If anything, Major League Baseball is now reminiscent of the 1980’s in terms of positional values. The best example would be Robinson Cano having equivalent value as Ryne Sandberg did in the mid 1980’s. I am quite happy about that because I feel this trend actually helps me in my comeback quest.

I started playing fantasy baseball in a Rotisserie league in the late 1980’s and absolutely loved it. I assigned players a value based on position eligibility and looked to maximize my dollars according to the values I assigned during our league auction. The draft was everything I had hoped it would be – exciting, fun, and all together exhilarating. The rest of the season was always a letdown. The time before cell phones and the Internet did not make a long season exciting. I would follow my teams performance in the Daily News box scores, but there was no league banter or trades of any kind. The last thing on anyone’s mind was riding a bike across town just to get Tim Wallach or Kelly Gruber, when your Yankee third baseman didn’t materialize. Teams would be drafted and set adrift, and it would always leave a bad taste in my mouth.

The late 90s offered more excitement with the Internet being utilized, but once again getting a league to actually care, and stay interested for 162 games grew impossible. We were latch key kids who had grown up with the remote control. We had the attention spans of 6 year olds listening to a lecture. If you were not entertaining us than you were switched off.

Fantasy football became my passion. A draft that had all the excitement I was looking for, and a short season that kept mine, and everyone else in the league’s attention. The format was perfect, head to head week after week, divisions and playoffs culminating before the end of the season. Fantasy football and the rush associated became a increasingly addictive. I joined more and more leagues. I went through withdrawal after the season ended, even if I won the title. I would count the days to the draft, and look at meaningless Football news in the middle of May as if my life depended on it.

I needed an intervention, or at least a good fantasyadone clinic. Now at the height of my addiction, in walks a head-to-head fantasy baseball league and my attention is grabbed. I was still following baseball and all of its storylines, but had pretty much become New York-centric. If it didn’t have to do with the Yankees or Mets, I really did not care.

I was going to have to do some homework and fast. Luckily all of my draft strategies and GM skills easily translated to the new format for fantasy baseball. First and foremost I was looking at which positions were deep and which positions I needed to put a premium on based on scarcity. I also did the leg work and polled other GMs as to the pervasive draft strategies that I needed to try and stick to. The biggest tip I got was to try and get a stud number one starting pitcher in the first three rounds. If I didn’t, I would be gambling the rest of the draft to make up the difference. This theory easily paralleled my draft strategy in football as it is always imperative to get a top 6 quarterback in the first three rounds, otherwise you are gambling the rest of the draft with unproven commodities. While RG3 and Andrew Luck carried teams early, late in the season the owners who gambled on them mostly fell to the wayside. I feel the same way about GMs in fantasy baseball who think they are going to ride Matt Harvey and players of his ilk to the Promised Land. It’s a long season and I want a player that has been there and done that, not one that I have to draft way to early and hope that they are the exception to the rule.

I hope you tune in and don’t change the channel as I update you throughout the year on my reintroduction to fantasy baseball.

Fantasy Football 2012 Post Season Awards

After a long and grueling season, it is now time for Coach Dennis to hand out his awards for unique and completely fabricated categories.

The Least Sexy Pick of the Year

Winner: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA)

On draft day you would probably heard a lot of people say good pick as you put Marshawn’s name on the board. Not great, but good is the moral of this story. No one was super excited about drafting Lynch with an unknown commodity starting at QB in 2012. The smart GMs saw the late season matchups and knew the offense would run on Marshawn slipping into “Beast Mode” if the Seahawks were to reach their potential. Marshawn put up ten 100 yard rushing days and 12 total touchdowns during the season. His biggest games came at the most important times for fantasy GMs. Weeks 13 through 16 Lynch put up huge numbers carrying GMs into the playoffs, and onto the winners stand. Lynch averaged 109.75 yards rushing and 1.75 touchdowns during the most critical weeks of the year, earning him a Post Season award from yours truly, and a place in the hearts of Fantasy GMs around the country.

The Dennis Green “They are what we thought they were!” Award

Winner: Michael Turner (RB-ATL)

The entire world was ready for Michael Turner to fall off the list of must start running backs, and he did not disappoint. The talking heads on TV and even the guy at your draft that shows up with a draft guide printed in April all knew to stay away from this aging former fantasy stud. His decline in production was a perfect storm of factors for the Atlanta Falcons. The team was finally full of healthy weapons all over the field, and was moving more to a pass first offense, which did not bode well for the old war horse. The continued maturation of Jacquizz Rogers was just another nail into the coffin. While Turner did produce 11 combined touchdowns, he only totaled 800 yards rushing while only topping 20 carries once.

Same Team, Same Stats, Different Guy

Winner: Steven Ridley (RB-NE)

Stevan Ridley’s 1,263 rushing yards were well beyond Benjarvis Green-Ellis’s last few seasons in New England, but the 12 touchdowns was exactly what you could count on from the law-firm in his final two years in New England. Ridley was a steal as a top notch Running Back 2 in most leagues as he topped 100 yards four times and was the consistent goal line back piling up 12 touchdowns (when he was not in Belichek’s doghouse for fumbles). While he may not be Adrian Peterson, he is definitely the most talented back to feature for the Patriots since Corey Dillon.

Different Team, Same Stats, Same Guy

Winner: Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)

Peyton Manning was a steal in most drafts. He would have easily been the fourth or fifth quarterback taken if not for his career-threatening injury coupled with an address change to Denver. Manning was snapped up in the middle rounds in most drafts and threw 37 touchdowns, placing him third in the league while also eclipsing his totals during his previous two healthy years (2009-2010). He also threw for over 4,600 yards without breaking a sweat and seemingly getting better as the season progressed. Manning single-handedly made Demaryious Thomas and Eric Decker a dynamic receiving duo. Having these receivers and a solid running game, Manning’s renaissance is not a one-year wonder and he should return to the top of draft boards in 2013.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Darren McFadden

Winner: Darren McFadden (RB-OAK)

While fantasy owners constantly salivate over Darren McFadden’s potential and raw skills, he has proven again and again that he cannot hold up over the course of a season. This year proved no different as he missed four games due to constant foot and ankle injuries. Even when he was in the lineup, he had trouble adapting to a new zone read scheme. McFadden registered 700 yards rushing and just three touchdowns after being a late first or early second round pick. Two of his three 100 yard rushing days were against the Chiefs – enough said. I know there are a lot of you reading this cringing like a girlfriend constantly scorned, but I am willing to bet that you will probably draft him again next year based on potential.

Worst Deep Round Sleeper

Winner: Titus Young (WR-DET)

No matter where you looked, everyone and their mother were touting Lions wide receiver Titus Young, the second-year pro out of Boise State. I was almost swept up into the madness until I realized that he had more personal fouls during his rookie season than the entire New York Giants defense. Not exactly the calm, cool under pressure young receiver I wanted for my team, to say the least. With Calvin Johnson constantly seeing double coverage, Young was supposed to reap the rewards. Young was expected to almost double his 2011 stats of 600 yards and 6 touchdowns, but instead he cut that in half as he regressed into a banished draft bust. Young is the first receiver I have ever seen who purposely lined up in the wrong position, as well as ran the wrong routes in protest of how he was being used in the Lions’ offense. I believe everyone deserves a second chance, but I think his will come on the waiver wire both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues.

Most Valuable Surgeon

Winner: Dr. James Andrews

Dr. Andrews once again worked his magic as Adrian Peterson came back from a torn MCL and ACL to come within 9 yards of breaking the all-time single season rushing record. Peterson was only held in check by his own coaching staff as he was eased back into his workhorse role. He was a man amongst boys from Week 7 through Week 17 as he averaged 159.8 yards rushing and just over a touchdown per game. Peterson was nothing short of phenomenal as he carried many fantasy owners to the Promised Land.

(Honorable Mentions must go out to the surgeons for Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning as they returned to their old selves sooner than anyone could have anticipated.)

The Curse of the Playoff Bye

Congratulations to everyone in fantasy land who have made it to the playoffs. A big gold star goes out to those of you who managed to get first round byes thanks to your successful regular seasons. While a week without fantasy football stress sounds like the perfect antidote to pressure endured over the last few weeks of the regular season, beware. A weekend of lounging comfortably and relaxing with your family while others are glued to their televisions, computers and smartphones can actually be your undoing.

Bye weeks for actual NFL players are spent on the golf course or catching up on long neglected household chores. Clean yards and gutters are fine and dandy for NFL players, but yard and gutters will remain a blight on my neighborhood until the league championship is mine.

While you occasionally glance at the scores and check the updates on Monday for injuries, your opponents will have the upper hand of firsthand knowledge. While you adjust your starters based on box scores and injury reports, your opponents will be using their eyes and ears to help them gain an advantage. The box score does not tell the entire story of a game. For instance, you would never know about a snowstorm in Buffalo or a torrential downpour in Miami by reading the stats. You might just be looking at the stats with blinders on, not realizing the starting quarterback was knocked out in the second quarter leading to your receiver having a terrible day.

John Skelton turning it over, again

I suggest you play the week. Pick your starters by doing your homework. Watch the games with a keen eye. Spend your weekend looking for trends such as Denarious Moore being benched again, or Steve Smith getting more targets with Brandon Lafell on the mend. Has Colin Kaepernick actually found a go-to receiver in Michael Crabtree? Does John Skelton throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald constantly, or does he get hooked faster than I would while performing at the Apollo Theatre?

Injuries are a huge part of the sport and a huge obstacle for fantasy owners. If you have been playing musical chairs with your second running back, you may want to give the job to Montell Owings this week. His bruising style and fresh legs might just be the answer to your RB2 prayers. Danario Alexander is obviously the guy to start if you have injury concerns at receiver. I would have pushed for Cecil Shorts III to overtake any of your other WR2 options, but a concussion suffered against Buffalo has me, and everyone else who rode his hot streak into the playoffs, concerned. If I were the coach and GM in Jacksonville, I wouldn’t risk a possible superstar when we have nothing to play for.

Russell Wilson has been consistent enough to overtake Phillip Rivers, and quite possibly Eli Manning, as a starter for your fantasy team. I would ride him one more week if you have Ben Roethlisberger on your bench. I wouldn’t play him over Tony Romo, Cam Newton, or even Colin Kaepernick yet.

Good luck, and hit me up on Twitter @Coachesser for any start/sit questions you might have.

Times are Tight

Unbelievably Week 9 of the NFL season is in the books. Some of your fantasy football teams are sailing smooth seas into the playoffs while others are putting out may-day calls as your teams hit some rough waters. For the owners who were not lucky enough to snag one of the elite tight ends, consistent tight end play has become the slow leak that is bringing down your ships. Before you put on your life vest and take the plunge overboard, I will help you find the tight end that can make all the difference. First, let us take a look at who you do not want in your starting lineups.

Time to ride the pine

Jermichael Finley

Another week goes by without a hint of Finley living up to TE1 potential. I do not know if he frustrates fantasy owners, Packer fans, or Mike McCarthy more. This past week, he had a good matchup against a team that he has had success against in his career. (2009 playoffs, where he looked like the next great tight end to hit the league) Unfortunately for the Packers and fantasy owners, he once again looked like a shadow of his former self.

Finley’s production, as well as his targets, has steadily gone down since Week 1. While we can make excuses for him such as his shoulder injury sustained against the Rams or the lack of a deep threat with Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson missing time, it is his stone hands that are holding him back. According to his coaches, Finley passes the eye test in the weight room as well as on the practice field. But when game time comes along, he disappears. For some perspective, in Week 1 Finley had 11 targets and seven catches. Over the past three weeks COMBINED he has had only ten targets even without Jennings and Nelson on the field. Time to permanently bench, or dare I say drop, this former phenom.

Jacob Tamme

Tamme has not become Peyton Manning’s security blanket as many of us had thought would be the case. He has become a fringe player, seeing the field roughly fifty percent of the time, and losing out on targets to Joel Dreesen among others. Tamme is at best a bye week fill in, but not the borderline TE1 some thought he could be.

Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph was a hot pick up to start the year as he was catching touchdowns at an alarming rate. As Rudolph crashed back to earth the past few weeks, so have many fantasy teams out there. While Rudolph cannot be blamed for Christian Ponder’s poor play, he can be looked at as nothing more than a redzone threat going forward.

Light at the end of the tunnel

Vernon Davis

While some fantasy owners might have become frustrated with Vernon Davis over the last few weeks, I implore you to stay the course. While Vernon Davis’ production and targets are down, his problems are more about how the defenses in the league are playing him then his inconsistency as a pass catcher. Davis’ first few weeks seemed to build on the momentum he and Alex Smith built up with last year’s brilliant playoff run. The last two weeks his lack of opportunities has had you scratching your head. I see Davis’ production jumping up to low to mid TE1 coming off the bye week as Harbaugh and company had plenty of time to find a way to get their most dynamic offensive player more involved.

Antonio Gates

Antonio Gates has been inconsistent mainly because of poor quarterback and offensive line play, but he and Philip Rivers have a history of playing well down the stretch. With Gates being the healthiest he has been in years, he may be a trade target for the savvy fantasy owner.

Possible trade targets

My top trade targets for the stretch run are Vernon Davis in all non-PPR leagues and Antonio Gates in all leagues. Jermaine Gresham is also on my radar as a nice TE2 target that can be had for very little in most formats. The only thing holding Gresham back is the Bengals’ lack of a running game. With a running game and more play-action looks at the goal-line, Gresham could develop into a TE1. Greg Olsen also has some upside if you can get him on the cheap. With Carolina going back to a power running game, Olsen should see increased targets and production.

The waiver wire is where most championships are won and lost and this year will be no different

Waiver wire targets

Heath Miller

Miller has probably been scooped up by now, but on the off chance that he is available, do not hesitate. Ben Roethlisberger was not speaking in hyperbole when he said he would get him to the Pro-bowl this year. No other Steeler has benefited more from Hines Ward’s retirement than Miller. He has become the preferred possession receiver as well as a bona fide touchdown hound near the goal-line. Even blocking another GM from gaining points by dropping a fifth wide receiver such as Sidney Rice or Santana Moss will be worth the satisfaction as he/she is forced to start Dustin Keller, Anthony Fasano, or Marcedes Lewis.

Brandon Myers

Can you name the tight end that had the most targets two out of the last three weeks? I am waiting. As you could have guessed, it’s Brandon Myers. Myers is Jason Witten without the run after the catch. He is a big target who runs crisp routes and has soft hands. He might be this year’s Jake Ballard after all is said and done. The thing I like about him most is that he never comes off the field. He is a good (not great) inline blocker and can split out and body up on safeties. I am a little concerned with McFadden’s injury, but not enough to pull Myers from my list.

The Art of The Deal
Gallery
The Art of The Deal

Fantasy Football

The Art of The Deal

With the final few weeks of the Fantasy Football regular season upon us, most GM’s are scrambling to optimize their rosters for that all important playoff push. While some are scouring the waiver wire in the hopes that Cecil Shorts is this year’s Victor Cruz, others are doing their homework trying to make the perfect deadline trade. After realizing that Sidney Rice and Jeremy Maclin aren’t the guys to bring the trophy home, you can fall back on my trade guidelines to help you pluck that perfect piece off of someone else’s roster.

Classic Blunders

1. Don’t put available players on your message boards. You might as well tell your entire league you hate these guys and are willing to be insulted with horrible trade offers. It gives the impression that your available players have clearance tags on them. This turns off some GM’s based on the pure fact that these guys must be tainted, and it attracts the vultures that smell a lop-sided deal. If you put your third running back up on a message board, I guarantee you will be offered someone’s fourth or fifth receiver. I know we are all busy, but laziness is never rewarded, nor should it be.

2. Don’t put your needs on a message boards. Again, you are just asking for your buddies to try and take advantage of you. I really hated when some sites started utilizing needs and available player categories. You would inevitably only see the guys who were about to be put on the waiver wire put up.

3. Don’t offer a trade and renege. This happens quite frequently with lazy GM’s. They offer a deal without looking at the bye weeks and playoff matchups, and when they receive a “yes” they pull out. You are straining a relationship that you will need for years to come, and in some cases, a friendship. Before you put out an offer, either through email, text, or verbally, be prepared to follow through.

4. Don’t send out mass emails with available players and needs. While this might sound redundant, it is actually very different from the message boards. People occasionally check the message boards in their league, but emails are seen instantly in most cases. The message boards might get you two or three bad offers whereas mass emails will have your inbox flooded with bad offers to sift through.

5. Don’t let yourself get trapped by bye weeks and fragile players. If you are banking on guys riding the eternally questionable tag, be prepared to get burned. When you draft multiple players with the same bye week and don’t plan ahead, you are practically begging for someone to throw you a terrible trade offer. This week we have Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw all on byes. If you had two of these guys as your starters you are looking at backup running backs or terrible trade offers to try and win a very important Week 11. If I am 5-5 right now, I might take a hit to try and get in the tournament. How big of a hit is all in the negotiation. I can see things like a Lynch for Ridley deal being completed by desperate owners in some leagues.

Do the Work

There is nothing more satisfying than winning a league thanks mostly to your in-season moves. Sure, some GM’s get lucky drafting a team that goes injury or suspension-free en route to a championship. But more likely than not, the guys who are constantly vying for the top spot are making key pickups and trades at critical points in the year. There is no more critical time then the weeks leading up to the playoffs.

Know your strengths and weaknesses. Are you four-deep at running back but have to rub two sticks together to get a spark from your receivers? Has your tight end been M.I.A. since Week 2? Are your Defense and Kicker matchups ideal for the playoffs?

Where are you losing key points week to week? Are you constantly starting the wrong receiver? Has your lineup been on autopilot when it needed a hands-on driver?

Know your opponents’ weaknesses and strengths. Who stockpiled receivers or running backs? Who has injury issues? Who has a bye week dilemma? Who will take Eli Manning off my hands because he or she is still riding high from last season’s Super Bowl win?

Collect information. Every casual conversation should be an opportunity to gauge your opponent’s feelings about their team. Sometimes a simple mope up to the board on draft day will let you know a player is available. I especially love when GMs tell you they love your pick, or they really wanted that guy. If they wanted him on draft day, he might just be your buyer in Week 11.

Play to your Audience

Every trade is a delicate dance that needs to be approached in a personal way. Here are some characters that are always fun to deal with.

The Costanza.

This GM is the type of person that thinks all strippers and waitresses are into them. If you stroke their ego a little you might just be able to get what you want. Praise them for their draft day foresight and pinpoint in-season pickups. After some heavy petting they might want to share their wealth with your struggling team.

Mr. Shellshocked.

This GM has been taken advantage of and is very leery of anyone who is interested in their players. A little honesty will go a long way with this GM. Tell them who you are after and why. Always have a second target on their team in mind as they will cling to that first bit of information as the bible truth. They tend to make fair counteroffers when almost all the cards are on the table.

Mr. Vegas.

This GM is all about the action. They cannot stand pat for a whole season, let alone week to week. Always let them know there is a trade in the works. They might be your pawn in making a deal possible for you. You may be competing with another team to trade for Jamal Charles who has some favorable playoff matchup. So you happen to let Mr. Vegas know that your competitor is trying to trade for a running back. They will instantly try to insert themselves in the trade activities. You might be able to distract your competitor long enough to pull off your trade.

Puzzle Pieces

The best trades are the ones that make both teams just a little bit better. Your rosters are like puzzles that need each other to finally see the picture. Sometimes on draft day you might not fit, but with free agent pickups and early season trades you evolve into perfect dance partners. This is why you should constantly be looking at your opponent’s rosters, waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike.

Recommended Trade Targets

QB – If you don’t have one by now you are most likely out of luck. The waiver wire might be your lifeline if Carson Palmer or Josh Freeman is still available.

RB – Jamaal Charles, Willis McGahee, Stevan Ridley (for his next few matchups), and Shonn Greene to a lesser extent.

WR – For a position that was as deep as I could remember it being in years, it has thinned out considerably through injury and ineffectiveness. Try and grab Denarius Moore, Marques Colston, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson and Miles Austin.

TE – Antonio Gates, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen. You might be able to get Olsen as a throw in to tip the scales in your favor.