Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

Fantasy Football: Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

The hangover from an exciting week one in Fantasy Football is hitting me like a flying kick from Antonio Brown. The surprises (Allen Hurns and Justin Forsett), the disappointments (Jamaal Charles and Dez Bryant), and of course the injuries (Eddie Lacy, Jordan Reed, Ben Tate, Doug Martin, Jordan Cameron and Alshon Jeffrey) all made for a mentally exhausting Sunday. As they say, a little hair of the dog is good for what ails you and tonight we get a double shot of Monday Night Football to cure the hangover. In case you didn’t get enough intrigue this off season we have two questionable fantasy starters in Antonio Gates and Andre Ellington. I would look for Gates to play limited snaps, but I’m not as optimistic on Ellington and his ailing foot. (Weird, because usually it’s Gates’s foot that we would have been griping about.)

With the breaking news that Ray Rice has been suspended indefinitely and his contract has been terminated by the Baltimore Ravens (Finally), we have to discuss their current backfield options.

Bernard Pierce – Pierce got the start after recovering from a concussion he suffered in the preseason, but he picked up right where he left off last season. He plodded his way to 17 yards on six carries and was non-existent in the passing game. The Ravens have a lot of trouble running to their left side and Pierce is so one dimensional right now that teams can bottle him up. He’s still a hold for me because of the opportunity here, but I think you will be kicking yourself for not taking Knowshon Moreno on draft day instead of Pierce.

Justin Forsett– Forsett was signed to be Ray Rice passing game insurance and now the Ravens are forced to make due after the revelations of the TMZ video. Forsett is a journeyman change of pace back that has a nice set of hands and is surprising when he is given a chance to carry the ball. Forsett ran for 71 yards on 12 carries (again his production was better to the right side with 7 carries for 44 yards and one TD) and caught five passes for 14 yards. Forsett looks to be the immediate beneficiary of the Rice departure, by solidifying his role and because the Ravens may be forced to pass the ball in order to move it.

Lorenzo Taliaferro-Taliaferro is a favorite of many of the dynasty fantasy football minds that I talk to because he is the type of running back who can get what’s blocked and push a pile when needed. The ability to fall forward and make oneself small when entering the hole is very important when the size of the holes aren’t what they used to be. Taliaferro is worth a stash in deep leagues and should see his number called before too long.

Terrance West-You might be wondering why Terrance West would be on a waiver wire article after all the hype in the preseason, but believe it or not he’s available in a lot of 10 team leagues. He’s 80% owned on ESPN and that climbed 10% in the last day. Ben Tate was always an injury concern, and West is the direct beneficiary. The 100 yard day will make him pretty expensive and the questionable status of Tate makes the price a little murky, but I would be in buy mode with West.

Isaiah Crowell– Crowell was not in the original game plan, but he was called upon when Tate went down with a knee injury. Crowell showed why many draft pundits wanted to see him get a shot in the late rounds as he rushed five times for 32 yards and two touchdowns. The emergence of Crowell really hurts the prospects for Tate, even when he’s healthy because this backfield could become a true RBBC situation. I would stash Crowell in very deep leagues, such as 16 team leagues or 14 team leagues.

Andrew Hawkins– Hawkins was specifically targeted by the Cleveland Browns organization during free agency and they did something a little unorthadox by signing him to a restricted free agent offer sheet. Hawkins has always had the reputation of being almost uncoverable in the slot, but he never got the type of targets or snaps that he needed in Cincy. On Sunday in Pittsburgh it was obvious that he is the first or second option on most passing plays as he caught eight passes on nine targets for 87 yards with 30 of those yards in YAC. Hawkins is a must roster in full PPR leagues and is even rosterable in .5 PPR 10 team leagues. His 11% ownership on ESPN is bound to swell.

Brian Quick– Quick is one of those guys that has frustrated many dynasty fantasy football players for years. His immense upside has been hard to ignore, but his failure to emerge when surrounded by mediocre talent has been worthy of some hair pulling. Sunday Quick led the Rams wide receiver corps in snaps at 48/70 and he dominated the targets as well. He out targeted Kenny Britt 9 to 2 and caught seven of those targets for 99 yards while Britt was shut out. Quick could go from a remember that name type of guy to a big time wide receiver three or four in 12 team fantasy leagues if he keeps this up. I would take a flyer in almost all leagues and especially where I took a shot on Britt.

Benny Cunningham– Cunningham played more snaps than second round fantasy pick, Zac Stacy, but Stacy out touched Cunningham 12-9. Cunningham showed well in the passing game as he secured four passes for 30 yards and he benefited by an early drop from Stacy. The situation has truly become a RBBC and Cunningham benefits from the Rams struggles as he will be used in the passing game more, he already outsnapped Stacy 21-13 in the opening game. Take a shot on Cunningham in full PPR, especially if you went Zero-RB. He could be a poor man’s Woodhead if this continues.

Allen Hurns– Talk about a breakout performance by a guy that wasn’t even expected to make the team. The Jaguars jumped all over the Eagles early as Hurns exploded for four receptions for 110 yards and two touch downs. Hurns was a surprise starter as Cecil Shorts III once again came up lame. Hurns probably wouldn’t have even been in line to play if Allen Robinson hadn’t been injured in training camp. All that is in the past as Hurns has done nothing but impress since he was given a chance. I’m not running out to grab Hurns, because of the crowded WR corps, but I wouldn’t blame you if you did. He is big and fast and it will be hard to keep him off the field after this performance. He is a must roster in all leagues larger than 14 teams and could be a sneak add in 12 teamers.

Bobby Rainey– Rainey is the direct back up to Doug Martin and Martin suffered a leg injury on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line struggled on Sunday, but most O-lines will against that Carolina front. Rainey is a pin ball in the passing game and is much stronger than he looks, when he is asked to carry the ball. I like Rainey in leagues where I went Zero-Rb or where i suffered some injuries. Mike James wasn’t fully recovered from a preseason injury on Sunday and could make this a RBBC, but that’s okay. I want the PPR side of this equation anyway.

Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor– Tonight’s game and the coming days are going to be keys to how we treat the situation in Arizona. I tend to think Ellington is more injured than what the Cardinals are letting on and think Dwyer is the guy to pick up, especially in standard leagues. If Ellington misses major time Dwyer would be no better than a bye week fill-in, but you never know if the light finally comes on for the former Steeler.

Chris Ivory– I’m not sure why Ivory is available on the wire, but he should be scooped up as soon as possible. Ivory is the perfect compliment to Chis Johnson for the Jets and your fantasy team will benefit from a fresh ivory running at tired defenders. Ivory was one of the key running backs in my Zero-RB draft approach and he also fell further in drafts as the season approached. The reasons for his fall were obvious. He has a long history of not being able to stay healthy and has a legitimate fantasy running back playing with him. Ivory was listed as the co-starter on Sunday and was outsnapped by Johnson 35-28. Ivory broke a long touchdown run to make his day look better on paper than what it really was, but he did run hard on his other carries. If Geno Smith can take care of the ball Ivory should be a nice flex option, especially in standard leagues.

All stats courtesy of PFF-ProFootballFocus.com

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The Art of The Deal

With the final few weeks of the Fantasy Football regular season upon us, most GM’s are scrambling to optimize their rosters for that all important playoff push. While some are scouring the waiver wire in the hopes that Cecil Shorts is this year’s Victor Cruz, others are doing their homework trying to make the perfect deadline trade. After realizing that Sidney Rice and Jeremy Maclin aren’t the guys to bring the trophy home, you can fall back on my trade guidelines to help you pluck that perfect piece off of someone else’s roster.

Classic Blunders

1. Don’t put available players on your message boards. You might as well tell your entire league you hate these guys and are willing to be insulted with horrible trade offers. It gives the impression that your available players have clearance tags on them. This turns off some GM’s based on the pure fact that these guys must be tainted, and it attracts the vultures that smell a lop-sided deal. If you put your third running back up on a message board, I guarantee you will be offered someone’s fourth or fifth receiver. I know we are all busy, but laziness is never rewarded, nor should it be.

2. Don’t put your needs on a message boards. Again, you are just asking for your buddies to try and take advantage of you. I really hated when some sites started utilizing needs and available player categories. You would inevitably only see the guys who were about to be put on the waiver wire put up.

3. Don’t offer a trade and renege. This happens quite frequently with lazy GM’s. They offer a deal without looking at the bye weeks and playoff matchups, and when they receive a “yes” they pull out. You are straining a relationship that you will need for years to come, and in some cases, a friendship. Before you put out an offer, either through email, text, or verbally, be prepared to follow through.

4. Don’t send out mass emails with available players and needs. While this might sound redundant, it is actually very different from the message boards. People occasionally check the message boards in their league, but emails are seen instantly in most cases. The message boards might get you two or three bad offers whereas mass emails will have your inbox flooded with bad offers to sift through.

5. Don’t let yourself get trapped by bye weeks and fragile players. If you are banking on guys riding the eternally questionable tag, be prepared to get burned. When you draft multiple players with the same bye week and don’t plan ahead, you are practically begging for someone to throw you a terrible trade offer. This week we have Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw all on byes. If you had two of these guys as your starters you are looking at backup running backs or terrible trade offers to try and win a very important Week 11. If I am 5-5 right now, I might take a hit to try and get in the tournament. How big of a hit is all in the negotiation. I can see things like a Lynch for Ridley deal being completed by desperate owners in some leagues.

Do the Work

There is nothing more satisfying than winning a league thanks mostly to your in-season moves. Sure, some GM’s get lucky drafting a team that goes injury or suspension-free en route to a championship. But more likely than not, the guys who are constantly vying for the top spot are making key pickups and trades at critical points in the year. There is no more critical time then the weeks leading up to the playoffs.

Know your strengths and weaknesses. Are you four-deep at running back but have to rub two sticks together to get a spark from your receivers? Has your tight end been M.I.A. since Week 2? Are your Defense and Kicker matchups ideal for the playoffs?

Where are you losing key points week to week? Are you constantly starting the wrong receiver? Has your lineup been on autopilot when it needed a hands-on driver?

Know your opponents’ weaknesses and strengths. Who stockpiled receivers or running backs? Who has injury issues? Who has a bye week dilemma? Who will take Eli Manning off my hands because he or she is still riding high from last season’s Super Bowl win?

Collect information. Every casual conversation should be an opportunity to gauge your opponent’s feelings about their team. Sometimes a simple mope up to the board on draft day will let you know a player is available. I especially love when GMs tell you they love your pick, or they really wanted that guy. If they wanted him on draft day, he might just be your buyer in Week 11.

Play to your Audience

Every trade is a delicate dance that needs to be approached in a personal way. Here are some characters that are always fun to deal with.

The Costanza.

This GM is the type of person that thinks all strippers and waitresses are into them. If you stroke their ego a little you might just be able to get what you want. Praise them for their draft day foresight and pinpoint in-season pickups. After some heavy petting they might want to share their wealth with your struggling team.

Mr. Shellshocked.

This GM has been taken advantage of and is very leery of anyone who is interested in their players. A little honesty will go a long way with this GM. Tell them who you are after and why. Always have a second target on their team in mind as they will cling to that first bit of information as the bible truth. They tend to make fair counteroffers when almost all the cards are on the table.

Mr. Vegas.

This GM is all about the action. They cannot stand pat for a whole season, let alone week to week. Always let them know there is a trade in the works. They might be your pawn in making a deal possible for you. You may be competing with another team to trade for Jamal Charles who has some favorable playoff matchup. So you happen to let Mr. Vegas know that your competitor is trying to trade for a running back. They will instantly try to insert themselves in the trade activities. You might be able to distract your competitor long enough to pull off your trade.

Puzzle Pieces

The best trades are the ones that make both teams just a little bit better. Your rosters are like puzzles that need each other to finally see the picture. Sometimes on draft day you might not fit, but with free agent pickups and early season trades you evolve into perfect dance partners. This is why you should constantly be looking at your opponent’s rosters, waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike.

Recommended Trade Targets

QB – If you don’t have one by now you are most likely out of luck. The waiver wire might be your lifeline if Carson Palmer or Josh Freeman is still available.

RB – Jamaal Charles, Willis McGahee, Stevan Ridley (for his next few matchups), and Shonn Greene to a lesser extent.

WR – For a position that was as deep as I could remember it being in years, it has thinned out considerably through injury and ineffectiveness. Try and grab Denarius Moore, Marques Colston, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson and Miles Austin.

TE – Antonio Gates, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen. You might be able to get Olsen as a throw in to tip the scales in your favor.