Billy Hamilton – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Rum-Springer (George Springer Hysteria)
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Rum-Springer (George Springer Hysteria)

Fantasy Baseball

Rum-Springer (George Springer Hysteria)

Well the news of Goerge Springer’s call up to the Houston Astros came down last night like a lightning bolt from Mount Olympus. Twitter went wild and fantasy owners everywhere went scrambling for their phones to see if Springer was on the waiver wire. I think the analogy holds water as most owners who drafted Springer in redraft and keeper leagues view him as a Greek God who will come and save their team.

Everyone Loves A Rookie

Projecting rookies is a funny thing. Trying to weigh the minor league numbers against what we can expect at the big league level is almost a futile past time. It’s like trying to figure out why the Diamonbacks are keeping Archie Bradley in the minor leagues. Your guess is as good as mine. (If you leave a comment about Super 2 rules and arbitration eligibility I will hunt you down. Joking…not joking.)

Even with all those questions hanging in the air most fantasy baseball owners are guilty of overvaluing rookies. It’s a sickness that seems to plague almost every league I join. 8 out of 12 owners going into this year thought they were drafting Jose Reyes when they took Billy Hamilton over players like Alex Gordon and Jayson Werth. They ended up with Michael Bourn. I’ll never understand it fully, but you’re damn well sure I will try and take advantage of it every chance I get.

Even in redraft leagues the value of Springer is almost off the charts as of this very moment. People believe they drafted Carlos Gonzalez or Andrew McCutchen in the 15th round and if you want to trade for him now that he’s making his debut tonight, you will have to pay close to that amount. It’s madness! Yes, I’m excited about Springer, but if he has anywhere near the value Puig had during his torrid start to last year, you better believe I will trade him.

If Springer gets off to a fast start it will be like watching the teenage Amish run around Pennsylvania during Rumspringa. That’s right I went there. The GM’s in your leagues that drafted Springer will be having their very own version of Rum-Springer as they run around patting themselves on the back with every stolen base or extra-base hit. You’ll get trade offers of Springer and Gray for Cargo and Darvish. Don’t laugh…just wait, you’ll see that these Springer crazed individuals will only get bolder and bolder as Springer plays well.

My R.O.S. projections are probably going to end up on the low side of everyone else’s. I have Springer hitting .288 with 17 homers, 24 steals, 58 runs and 60 RBIs. Don’t get me wrong those are really solid numbers, but I wouldn’t be trading Chris Davis or Edwin Encarnacion (two underperforming sluggers) to acquire Springer in redraft leagues. In keeper leagues his price tag will be even more, but you better be willing to eat a ton of strikeouts to get him.

Let me know what you would give up to get Springer, sight unseen, in keeper and redraft leagues in the comment section. Maybe we’ll discuss it when I make an appearance on The Fantasy Black Book -fantasy sports show-on SiriusXM Satellite radio with hosts Dan Strafford and Joe Pisapia.

P.S. Here’s Springer’s first Major League hit courtesy of Drew Silva

George Springer’s first hit: http://t.co/efUeM544Z5

— Drew Silva (@drewsilv) April 17, 2014

Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft

Swag-Diamond Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Recap and Analysis

7- Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B $41 Encarnacion was one of my main targets in this auction. Starting only 3 Outfielders and adding a Corner-Infielder spot makes Encarnacion a nice option instead of blowing your entire budget on Mike Trout ($57) or Andrew McCutchen (who went to @naapsterman for only $45). I was in on McCutchen, but once it went to 45 I backed off. Encarnacion ended up going for the same as Chris Davis and $5 dollars cheaper than Paul Goldschmidt.

15- Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS $31 Obviously I am gambling on health with Tulowitzki, but who aren’t you gambling with health when it comes to the top Short Stops. Hanley Ramirez ($38) isn’t exactly Super Man and Jose Reyes (only $19 to Ryan Forbes who had a great auction) is, well Jose Reyes. I had Tulow as a $30 player so one extra wasn’t a huge deal.

45 Jose Bautista, Tor OF $24 Bautista was my biggest target in this auction. In 5 x 5 with OB% instead of BA% he can be huge. I was hoping to get him for $22 and went to $24 which was one below my $25 dollar rating.

54 Justin Upton, Atl OF $7 All I can say is everyone fell asleep on this one. I only threw out a $7 bid because there didn’t look to be to much action and I didn’t exactly want him, but I wouldn’t mind making someone else pay for him. By getting him for only $7 dollars it opened me up to spend a little more at other spots.

57 Justin Verlander, Det SP $21 Verlander was my #4 Starting Pitcher before the injuries to Darvish and Kershaw and now he is a much tighter 3B. His price was scoffed at a bit, but then Strasburg went for $33 and Scherzer, Wainwright and Sale all went for $26, Verlander’s price didn’t look all that bad.

89 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B $9 Oh boy did I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar on this one. I was hoping some of my fellow owners would be bidding him up on the account of his strong spring and of course when I thought someone would go to $10 they stuck me with him for $9. Moustakas was a $5 player in my ratings and I almost doubled that up.

90 Wilin Rosario, Col C $19 Rosario is a target of mine everywhere. I overpaid for him here, but when I looked at the Catchers that were available after he was put up, there was no one that could come close to what he brings. He ended up costing the same as Joe Mauer and was 6 and 5 dollars less than Santana and Posey, respectively.

94 Jered Weaver, LAA SP $12 Another one where I got caught bidding up. I was hoping some people would be desperate for starting pitching and paying for past performance, but $12 was not a bad price for Weaver. FantasyPros actually has him rated for $12 and I have him as a $10 SP in Mixed Leagues so I’m not too upset.

104 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS $9 I needed a middle infielder with some pop and Hardy was the guy. His BA% doesn’t matter here and his counting numbers are nice for the MI spot. I still over paid (by at least 3-4 dollars) in a mixed league setting, but I didn’t like what was left on the board.

126 Alex Gordon, KC OF $12 Huge OB% advantage and I get him at a discount?! I don’t know why people are sleeping on Gordon this year, but I’m not concerned as I picked him up everywhere. I got a $8 discount according to FantasyPros and he was $8 cheaper than Hunter Pence who is a very similar player.

143 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP $16 We need to start two relief pitchers and Rosenthal was the last of my upper-tier closers left. I spent a little more than I wanted (I have him at $12) but I had extra money to spend.

146 R.A. Dickey, Tor SP $6 R.A. could be one of those injury bounce back players, but I only wanted him at the right price with his high WHIP so $6 was perfect.

147 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B $8 Moustakas was not going to be the thirdbaseman I was going to bank on and Sandoval was a nice back-up/starter plan for around the same price. I wanted to only spend $7 on him, but $8 wasn’t out of the question.

165 Andrew Cashner, SD SP $8 Cashner was a big target for me. (no pun intended with his height) With Wins not being a category Cashner is equal to a lot of the bigger name pitchers available and he can always work on getting his K-rate up.

166 Sergio Romo, SF RP $6 Not bad for my 2nd RP. I had Romo as an $8 closer and again I get some value. He’s in my top ten so there’s that as well.

183 Christian Yelich, Mia OF $3 Yelich is a player who i hope gets off to a fast start. He’s a bit of a post-hype sleeper because he was last year’s version of George Springer. A guy with power and speed who could be a huge fantasy player in the future. I’m not confident that future is now, but if he starts fast the $3 investment could pay dividends in a trade.

196 Danny Salazar, Cle SP $8 Salazar was a must because I needed to add K’s after getting Weaver and Cashner. Salazar has top of the rotation strike-out stuff, but I think people are over-paying in redraft leagues. $8 is not bad and is actually below where i had him rated.

200 Austin Jackson, Det OF $4 Huge discount alert. Some people were running out of money and I picked up a steal in Jackson at $4. FantasyPros has him rated at $16 and I have him just below that at $15. So excited about this buy.

203 Clay Buchholz, Bos SP $3 With a DL spot available he is definitely worth the gamble. When healthy he is top of the rotation stuff and when he’s hurt he’s on the DL. I recently heard Eno Sarris say the very same thing and it’s always good to have someone reassure you. Cueto went for $6 and he’s the same injury gamble. Great when healthy and when he’s hurt you DL him.

209 Marco Estrada, Mil SP $3 I really like the Strike out upside and I didn’t want to overpay for him in a room of experts. $3 was perfect for me as I had him rated as a $6 SP.

213 Brian Dozier, Min 2B $5 Bit of an overpay here, but I needed him because I had missed out out Gyorko to TraderX for $16. I couldn’t go that high and now Dozier was my position punt. Not that bad a punt though with his ability to go 20/15.

222 Adam Eaton, CWS OF $3 This late in the auction strategy came to the forefront. I knew some of my other friends in the league wanted Eaton and their max bid left was $3, so I threw out an opening bid of $3 dollars on an outfielder that people want and they were stuck letting him go to me. If he doesn’t end up in my starters maybe I can package him for a new 2B option.

256 Taijuan Walker*, Sea SP $2 I had $2 left and I had a DL spot to use so Taijuan Walker was a nice lottery ticket to get this late. I would much rather have him sitting on my DL then spend $2 on Danny Haren or any other former decent fantasy pitcher.

The Worst Over Pays

Ben Zobrist for $25 – that was just crazy because his number have been declining for the last few years and you can’t pay a premium just on flexibility.

Yu Darvish for $36 – It’s never a good strategy to over pay for a stud Starting Pitcher and this case was no different. His neck issues aside this was at least $8 too much for me.

Billy Hamilton for $21 – I know the hype train is in full effect, but this is still a ONE-Category guy that should not be going in the same price range as Matt Holiday or Alex Rios.

Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg for a combine $72 – I don’t mean to pick on my good buddy Ricky Sanders here, but these were two overpays for me. Sometimes you get caught up in the auction with your eyes focused on your targets and you blow your budget because of it. It caught up to him at the end of the draft as his depth took a hit.

The Best Buys

Nolan Arenado for $1 – One dollar price tag was a little soul crushing for me as I paid a combined $17 for Panda and Moustakas. I really like Arenado this year and I would have been a lot happier if I went Panda and Arenado and saved the Moustakas money to get Gyorko at 2B.

Austin Jackson for $4 – This guy score a ton of runs and he will steal bases. His OB% is not ideal for an OB% league, but he is still worth at least 4x the cost. I won’t even count the Upton buy because there was a lot of chatter in the message box when that was going on. Distracted everyone.

Hisashi Iwakuma for $8 – Renee Miller picked up a nice injury steal here by getting the excellent Iwakuma for below market value. I have Iwakuma as a $15 pitcher and would have loved to get him, but Renee made a great buy.

Aroldis Chapman for $5 – This was a really smart buy considering he will still pitch for at least 17 weeks of the season. He cost the same as Booby Parnell who could lose his job the first month of the season.

Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

Through the first few of my actual money drafts of 2014 the same players keep sliding in drafts. Many of these undervalued players have already become roster magnets for me and I really can’t complain based on past performance or the 2014 projections I have on these players. So without further adieu these are some players you should target when they start to fall.

Wilin Rosario-Catcher-Colorado Rockies

Rosario is one of the only catchers in the league that has 30 homer potential, yet he continues to slide in drafts. In leagues that only start one catcher and are smaller than 14 teams i don’t tend to worry too much about drafting the position unless there becomes a clear “value win” or I feel the catcher run is in full swing. It’s a lot like dealing with a one quarterback league that doesn’t weigh touch down passes as six points in fantasy football. After the first few catchers it’s pretty much fantasy league average through catcher 14 in my rankings. Rosario is the only one in my high-mid catcher rankings that I tend to target because of the home run potential. If you see your team is slipping in that category in Roto-style or if Home Runs count as 5 points in your points league then don’t miss out on this guy. You can find his current ADP at Fantasy Pros Here.

Justin Verlander-Starting Pitcher-Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is a stud. Instead of remembering his up and down season from last year try and remember how dominant he was in the playoffs. (23 Innings – 1 Run – 31 Strikeouts) Those are the numbers that get you excited about owning Justin Verlander and those are the numbers that are going to make him a draft steal this year. He is regularly going behind last year’s rookie phenom Jose Fernandez in drafts and that’s just not right. I have Verlander ranked right in my top 5 and have no fears at all about his perceived regression last year. Don’t let him last too long in your drafts because you will be sorry. Go to Fantasy Pros here for his current ADP across all sites.

Kyle Seager-Third Base-Seattle Mariners

Last year it was tough to own any Mariners besides King Felix (Felix Hernandez) and be happy about it, but Kyle Seager quietly had a very good year and he did it with multiple position eligibility in some formats. This year people seem to have forgotten that Seager showed pop (22 homers) and even some decent wheels (9 stolen bases). Seager has even more value in leagues that start a corner infielder, but in leagues that start a traditional lineup he can be the ideal first player on your bench or utility player. Instead of going in the low to mid 70s he is regularly available in the ealry 100s in drafts and I seem to be picking him off constantly. Go here to see his current ADP across all sites.

Hunter Pence-Out Fielder-San Francisco Giants

All Hunter Pence did last year was put up solid numbers in almost every category (.283-27 HRs-99RBIs-22SBs) and yet during drafts this year he continues to be over looked constantly. I know people always like their new shiny toys, but Billy Hamilton over Hunter Pence has happened far too often. I know his swing is ugly, but you don’t actually have to watch every at bat of your second fantasy outfielder. Seriously I can’t think of any reason he should slide this low (current ADP) unless it’s purely on aesthetics or latent antisemitism.