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Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast with Renee Miller

Episode 026: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and Fanduel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week two of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.  We specifically talk about Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill, Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Terrance West, Mark Ingram, Bobby Rainey, Shonn Greene, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Andrew Hawkins, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz.

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You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

 

Thank Yous For Episode 026:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week two of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS.  Make sure you check back in the next few days as I will have a bunch of links to her latest articles.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

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Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

Fantasy Football: Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

The hangover from an exciting week one in Fantasy Football is hitting me like a flying kick from Antonio Brown.  The surprises (Allen Hurns and Justin Forsett), the disappointments (Jamaal Charles and Dez Bryant), and of course the injuries (Eddie Lacy, Jordan Reed, Ben Tate, Doug Martin, Jordan Cameron and Alshon Jeffrey) all made for a mentally exhausting Sunday.  As they say, a little hair of the dog is good for what ails you and tonight we get a double shot of Monday Night Football to cure the hangover.  In case you didn’t get enough intrigue this off season we have two questionable fantasy starters in Antonio Gates and Andre Ellington.  I would look for Gates to play limited snaps, but I’m not as optimistic on Ellington and his ailing foot.  (Weird, because usually it’s Gates’s foot that we would have been griping about.)

chris ivory

With the breaking news that Ray Rice has been suspended indefinitely and his contract has been terminated by the Baltimore Ravens (Finally), we have to discuss their current backfield options.

Bernard Pierce – Pierce got the start after recovering from a concussion he suffered in the preseason, but he picked up right where he left off last season.  He plodded his way to 17 yards on six carries and was non-existent in the passing game.  The Ravens have a lot of trouble running to their left side and Pierce is so one dimensional right now that teams can bottle him up.  He’s still a hold for me because of the opportunity here, but I think you will be kicking yourself for not taking Knowshon Moreno on draft day instead of Pierce.

Justin Forsett– Forsett was signed to be Ray Rice passing game insurance and now the Ravens are forced to make due after the revelations of the TMZ video.  Forsett is a journeyman change of pace back that has a nice set of hands and is surprising when he is given a chance to carry the ball.  Forsett ran for 71 yards on 12 carries (again his production was better to the right side with 7 carries for 44 yards and one TD) and caught five passes for 14 yards.  Forsett looks to be the immediate beneficiary of the Rice departure, by solidifying his role and because the Ravens may be forced to pass  the ball in order to move it.

Lorenzo Taliaferro-Taliaferro is a favorite of many of the dynasty fantasy football minds that I talk to because he is the type of running back who can get what’s blocked and push a pile when needed.  The ability to fall forward and make oneself small when entering the hole is very important when the size of the holes aren’t what they used to be.  Taliaferro is worth a stash in deep leagues and should see his number called before too long.

Terrance West-You might be wondering why Terrance West would be on a waiver wire article after all the hype in the preseason, but believe it or not he’s available in a lot of 10 team leagues.  He’s 80% owned on ESPN and that climbed 10% in the last day.  Ben Tate was always an injury concern, and West is the direct beneficiary.  The 100 yard day will make him pretty expensive and the questionable status of Tate makes the price a little murky, but I would be in buy mode with West.

Isaiah Crowell– Crowell was not in the original game plan, but he was called upon when Tate went down with a knee injury.  Crowell showed why many draft pundits wanted to see him get a shot in the late rounds as he rushed five times for 32 yards and two touchdowns.  The emergence of Crowell really hurts the prospects for Tate, even when he’s healthy because this backfield could become a true RBBC situation. I would stash Crowell in very deep leagues, such as 16 team leagues or 14 team leagues.

Andrew Hawkins– Hawkins was specifically targeted by the Cleveland Browns organization during free agency and they did something a little unorthadox by signing him to a restricted free agent offer sheet.  Hawkins has always had the reputation of being almost uncoverable in the slot, but he never got the type of targets or snaps that he needed in Cincy.  On Sunday in Pittsburgh it was obvious that he is the first or second option on most passing plays as he caught eight passes on nine targets for 87 yards with 30 of those yards in YAC.  Hawkins is a must roster in full PPR leagues and is even rosterable in .5 PPR 10 team leagues.  His 11% ownership on ESPN is bound to swell.

Brian Quick– Quick is one of those guys that has frustrated many dynasty fantasy football players for years.  His immense upside has been hard to ignore, but his failure to emerge when surrounded by mediocre talent has been worthy of some hair pulling.  Sunday Quick led the Rams wide receiver corps in snaps at 48/70 and he dominated the targets as well.  He out targeted Kenny Britt 9 to 2 and caught seven of those targets for 99 yards while Britt was shut out.  Quick could go from a remember that name type of guy to a big time wide receiver three or four in 12 team fantasy leagues if he keeps this up.  I would take a flyer in almost all leagues and especially where I took a shot on Britt.

Benny Cunningham– Cunningham played more snaps than second round fantasy pick, Zac Stacy, but Stacy out touched Cunningham 12-9.  Cunningham showed well in the passing game as he secured four passes for 30 yards and he benefited by an early drop from Stacy.  The situation has truly become a RBBC and Cunningham benefits from the Rams struggles as he will be used in the passing game more, he already outsnapped Stacy 21-13 in the opening game.  Take a shot on Cunningham in full PPR, especially if you went Zero-RB.  He could be a poor man’s Woodhead if this continues.

Allen Hurns– Talk about a breakout performance by a guy that wasn’t even expected to make the team.  The Jaguars jumped all over the Eagles early as Hurns exploded for four receptions for 110 yards and two touch downs.  Hurns was a surprise starter as Cecil Shorts III once again came up lame.  Hurns probably wouldn’t have even been in line to play if Allen Robinson hadn’t been injured in training camp.  All that is in the past as Hurns has done nothing but impress since he was given a chance.  I’m not running out to grab Hurns, because of the crowded WR corps, but I wouldn’t blame you if you did.  He is big and fast and it will be hard to keep him off the field after this performance.  He is a must roster in all leagues larger than 14 teams and could be a sneak add in 12 teamers.

Bobby Rainey– Rainey is the direct back up to Doug Martin and Martin suffered a leg injury on Sunday.  The Tampa Bay Offensive Line struggled on Sunday, but most O-lines will against that Carolina front.  Rainey is a pin ball in the passing game and is much stronger than he looks, when he is asked to carry the ball.  I like Rainey in leagues where I went Zero-Rb or where i suffered some injuries.  Mike James wasn’t fully recovered from a preseason injury on Sunday and could make this a RBBC, but that’s okay.  I want the PPR side of this equation anyway.

Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor–  Tonight’s game and the coming days are going to be keys to how we treat the situation in Arizona.  I tend to think Ellington is more injured than what the Cardinals are letting on and think Dwyer is the guy to pick up, especially in standard leagues.  If Ellington misses major time Dwyer would be no better than a bye week fill-in, but you never know if the light finally comes on for the former Steeler.

Chris Ivory– I’m not sure why Ivory is available on the wire, but he should be scooped up as soon as possible.  Ivory is the perfect compliment to Chis Johnson for the Jets and your fantasy team will benefit from a fresh ivory running at tired defenders.  Ivory was one of the key running backs in my Zero-RB draft approach and he also fell further in drafts as the season approached.  The reasons for his fall were obvious.  He has a long history of not being able to stay healthy and has a legitimate fantasy running back playing with him.  Ivory was listed as the co-starter on Sunday and was outsnapped by Johnson 35-28.  Ivory broke a long touchdown run to make his day look better on paper than what it really was, but he did run hard on his other carries.  If Geno Smith can take care of the ball Ivory should be a nice flex option, especially in standard leagues.

All stats courtesy of PFF-ProFootballFocus.com

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Fantasy Football Week 11 Thoughts

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Week 11 is traditionally where I begin to narrow my focus for a Fantasy Football playoff run. The bulk of the fantasy season is behind us, but the real work is just beginning. We should start by looking to make trades for players that have favorable match-ups in the playoffs. Then make the small trades that help protect our rosters. Like trading a fifth wide receiver for Joique Bell so you don’t get stuck with Reggie Bush standing in street clothes come Week 15. Those types of trades should only happen if the handcuff can produce similar fantasy points and the player has a clear history of injuries.

Before we look forward to Week 11 we must take a look back at what happened in Week 10.

Nice Surprises

First and foremost, our very own Andre Brown made his claim for more fantasy attention with a fantastic game against the Oakland Raiders. He touched the ball 31 times producing over 100 yards and scored a touchdown. What many saw as a cloudy running back situation for the Giants, including me, has become a beacon of hope for fantasy owners. Brown was clearly what the Giants have been looking for and should be a solid RB2 going forward.

Tavon Austin finally looked like a top 10 pick as he broke out for a three touchdown game. While waiver wire darling Zac Stacy was mostly bottled up on the day, Austin exploded. Austin still didn’t see the field as much as he should, but at least it was a very encouraging sign for those that own him in dynasty formats. I still don’t see him as much more than a WR4 for the fantasy playoffs.

Golden Tate took advantage of a beautiful match-up against the Atlanta Falcons and scored well above his weekly average. Tate’s 6 receptions for 106 yards and touchdown saw him as a perfect bye week filler for guys like Josh Gordon and Danny Amendola. He should be a high end WR4 going down the stretch.

Mark Ingram

Three New Orleans Saints who were either headed towards, or were firmly in the fantasy football abyss finally broke out. Marques Colston was borderline dropable heading into this week. He was right there with Dwayne Bowe as far as usefulness for a fantasy owner. The only difference is that Colston has Drew Brees throwing him the ball.  Brees finally decided to look Colston’s way and he delivered with 7 receptions for 107 yards and 1 TD.  Mark Ingram was so forgotten that he was even being dropped in dynasty leagues. The former Alabama star, who is just now fully healthy, ran like a man possessed against the Dallas Cowboys defense. He racked up 145 yards and a touch down on just 14 carries and added 2 receptions for 15 yards for good measure. Darren Sproles came into the game on a long string of disappointing fantasy returns. The Cowboys were the ideal remedy to get him going. He scored on the ground and through the air as he looked like his old elusive self. The Cowboys sixth-string linebackers only made him look that much more amazing.

Disappointments

Trent RichardsonRay Rice, and C.J. Spiller.

Richardson has just not been able to get going since being traded to theIndianapolis Colts. The fact that fantasy owners are now looking to start Donald Brown over him makes him border-line dropable at this point. I am holding out hope, but I am literally starting a ball boy over him at this point. Ray Rice is not the same player he used to be at this point. The hip injury has sapped some of his elusiveness and power and he is running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Joe Flacco is still looking to him in the passing game, but he can’t make the first guy miss at this point, so his yardage suffers. I would look to trade him for anything that could help me down the road, because Ray Rice is still a name and sometimes you can make a deal on that alone. C.J. Spiller’s ankle was finally healed and he was coming off a 100 yard performance, so naturally the Bills were going to feature him….right? Nope, Spiller basically saw a third of the snaps in the backfield for the Bills and he was once again a fantasy disappointment.

The Mike James injury! Mike James was fast becoming a big-time fantasy running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.    He was the answer to all the prayers of Doug Martin and David Wilson owners as the Buccaneers had decided to feature James going forward in a more balanced attack. The Buccaneers had finally decided to put Doug Martin on injured reserve early on the weekend making Mike James rest of the season outlook look that much better.  Well a fractured ankle on a run that came up just inches short of a touchdown may have cost some of us a fantasy championship.

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Week 11 Start/Sit

With only Dallas and St. Louis on a bye in Week 11 most fantasy teams will be fully stocked for battle.

The Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles game looks like an explosive fantasy match up on paper, but these two teams are division rivals who have already played each other once. I still think there should be some nice fantasy points scored in this game, but I don’t really trust Robert Griffin III just yet. If Griffin is erratic throwing the ball then the Redskins offense will stall and The Eagles will take the air out of the ball with LeSean McCoy. The one good thing for the Redskin’s run defense is that Nick Folesis under center and he is much less of a threat in a zone-read situation. The Redskins have been gashed all year by mobile quarterbacks running zone-read.

While Marshawn Lynch has a great match-up against the Minnesota VikingsAdrian Peterson will see his name slide down some fantasy experts’ lists. I am not one of those experts. I think Peterson is just finally getting healthy and that the Seahawks defense can be run on. I have Peterson as my number four overall running back this week.

Ben Tate

We saw what Andre Brown and the Giants were able to do against the Oakland Raiders last week. Well now Ben Tate and the Houston Texans get those same Raiders in Houston. I feel like Tate is going to have a very big day, but his injured ribs are my only concern. High upside RB2 for me this week.

Alfred Morris was having a huge game last Thursday before the Redskins forgot to call running plays in the second half. This week they’ll stick to the running game against the Eagles and Morris will finally get back into the end zone.

Because of injuries and a bye week for Tony Romo you may need to use the waiver wire for your quarterback this week. While early in the year I may have had to recommend any quarterback that was facing the New York Giants, that is no longer the case. The Giants have improved dramatically in recent weeks and make starting the newest Green Bay quarter back Scott Tolzien a real reach. I would instead look to Case Keenum against the Oakland Raiders or Ben Roethlisberger against the Detroit Lions.

The wide receiver match ups are very interesting. Andre Johnson gets a huge bump with Case Keenum now slinging the ball in Houston and looks to have the best match up of all the wide receiver ones. DeSean Jackson ran through the Redskin’s secondary at will the last time they played and he should still find room this week to make him a top play. The Eagles’ other wide receiver, Riley Cooper, has seen his fantasy statistics sky-rocket with Nick Foles at the helm and looks to be a WR3 and flex option going forward. Huge disparity in numbers for Cooper with Foles under center than withMichael Vick.

Two guys that would usually be at the top of any wide receiver list, in Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green actually face very tough match-ups this week. Calvin Johnson faces the always tough Ike Taylor, while A.J. Green gets theJoe Haden. I expect Johnson to still put up representative numbers, but Haden is a real tough draw for A.J. Green.

A man that may have been forgotten and that the Dolphins‘ owner, general manager, and fans would probably like to forget so far this season, Mike Wallace, actually has a very nice match up this week against the San Diego Chargers. The only issue is if Wallace decides to actually try for a change.

Two of my top tight end plays this week happen to share the same first name.  Jordan Reed and Jordan Cameron both have pretty good match ups this week. Reed faces the Eagles and is in the enviable position of being the number two target on a team that may have to play catch up on Sunday. Cameron is the Browns number two target and should have been working during the bye week with Jason Campbell to get on the same page. Cameron is an unbelievable talent as a pass catcher and I expect Campbell and the Browns to do everything they can to get him the ball going forward.

Top Fantasy Waiver Targets

Michael Crabtree — it looks like he could be back soon as the 49ers have let go of Kyle Williams

Brian Leonard

Brian Leonard, Mark Ingram, Bobby RaineyShonn Greene, Rishard Mathews, Nate BurlesonTyler EifertCoby FleenerRob Housler

Who has been your biggest fantasy football disappointment and surprise to this point?

Contact me @Coachesser on Twitter or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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