Brett Lawrie – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 2

With the baseball season underway, it’s all about recognizing trends. We’re already seeing players quickly trend upwards and players just not living up to expectations. A player like Trevor Story is producing in ways that many baseball fans have never seen before which is causing owners to have quite the dilemma. I look to help you figure these things out in my Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 2.

As the inaugural fantasy baseball article, this is what you can expect from this week forward!
Must Adds: Players who have great match ups who you can definitely pick up and add to your lineup.
Drops: Under performers or players who have little to no fantasy value for you this week
Two Start Pitchers: Pitchers who have to starts in a week that can help you maximize value.
Trends: Who should you be watching right now? Is it time to sell high or buy low?
Also, I will be basing all ownership off of Yahoo!.

Must Adds:

Zack Cozart – SS – Cincinnati Reds
5% Owned
Schedule: 3 @ CHC, 3 @ STL

Zack Cozart won the leadoff position right out of spring training. Billy Hamilton still can’t pull together a respectable batting average. Cozart is an interesting player to have in your lineup. He’s not a traditional leadoff man in terms of speed but he makes up for it with his power. Before going down to injury last year, his isolated slugging rate was .201. To put that into comparison, Troy Tulowitzki’s career ISO is .212. Until Hamilton can work his way up to the leadoff position, Cozart is a great option at generally one of the weakest fantasy positions available.

Wilson Ramos – C – Washington Nationals
34% Owned
Schedule: 4 vs ATL, 3 @ PHI

If you’re looking for a replacement behind the plate as a Kyle Schwarber owner, look no further. Wilson Ramos had a terrible year last year. You and I would also have a terrible season if your vision decreased so badly that you needed off-season Lasik eye surgery in order to fix it. Against two bottom feeding teams, Ramos will have a great opportunity to really show fantasy owners what he can do. It wouldn’t be surprising if he finished the year as a top 10 catcher.

Drops:

Byron Buxton – OF – Minnesota Twins
53% Owned
Schedule: 3 vs CHW, 3 vs LAA

If you’re in a keeper league – ignore this completely. If you’re in a redraft league, you don’t want to miss this. Byron Buxton was likely drafted because of his promise. He certainly wasn’t drafted because of his shoddy spring training performance. Up until April 9th, Buxton has struck out nine times in his first 14 at bats. Until he shows a glimpse of that so-called promise, you’re better off with just about anyone.

Brett Lawrie – 2B/3B – Chicago White Sox
47% Owned
Schedule: 3 @ MIN, 3 @ TB

Brett Lawrie looks like, well, Brett Lawrie – and that’s not a good thing for fantasy owners. Last year he finished with the highest strikeout rate of his career (23.9%) and this year he’s on pace to beat that. He’s also batting in the bottom half of an otherwise weak (outside of Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier) White Sox lineup. There are better streaming options out there.

Two Start Pitchers:

Matt Moore – LHP – Tampa Bay Rays
39% Owned
Schedule: April 12 vs CLE, April 17 vs CHW

It’s easy to forget that Matt Moore was an All-Star in 2013. His first start admittedly wasn’t the greatest, but he ran into a Blue Jays offence that was clicking (more specifically, the reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson’s bat). His velocity in spring training mixed with his first start look promising though. After seeing his velocity regress in 2014-2015 due to injury among other things, his velocity is actually higher now than it was in 2013.

Shane Greene – RHP – Detroit Tigers
7% Owned
Schedule: April 12 vs PIT, April 17 vs HOU

Shane Greene had a great spring, a good enough spring to get the chance to hold the fort down until Daniel Norris returns. Brad Ausmus has also even said that he might keep Greene in the rotation even when Norris comes back. Greene is an odd duck. From 2014 to 2015 his k/9 went down by 4 and his ERA balooned. He tried to rework a lot of his stuff in 2015 and ended up setting himself back even more. It looks like in the spring he figured a lot of his stuff out. He posted a very impressive line of 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA and 23 SO to close out the spring.

Trends:

Trevor Story – SS – Colorado Rockies
92% Owned
Schedule: 3 vs SF, 3 @ CHC

Trevor Story is off to a start that nobody has seen in a long time. Let’s throw it back. 2004 Barry Bonds, 1.422 OPS. Current day Trevor Story, 1.417 OPS (Thanks to The Ace of MLB Stats on Twitter). Story has also homered in each of his team’s first four games to start a season. Other names on that list? Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Mark McGwire and Willie Mays. I think you get the point. Story is off to a start that is completely unsustainable by any means. As soon as Jose Reyes returns, he’ll immediately challenge Story for at bats. With all the hype around him, why wouldn’t you be willing to sell high? Let’s remember that his ADP was around 254, aka Adam Lind territory. I’ve seen deals such as Story + Verlander for Scherzer + Segura. If you can package Story in a deal to land a big fish, you need to pull the trigger. I can promise you, he’s not Carlos Correa 2.0.

Also, check out my appearance on The FNTSY Sports Network with Pat Mayo. We chat the curious case of Trevor Story, two start pitchers and more!

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB season long or DFS questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

Garbage Picking

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Watch

Fantasy Baseball owners are as bad as toddlers when it comes to patience. They want the results now and two bad starts or two tough weeks at the plate is just too much for them to take. They’ll jump ship before a distress signal has even been sent. Leagues with limited or no DL slots make this time of year exciting to watch the drop section of your league’s transaction log. Remember it’s always better to take the bad end of a trade then drop a potential asset. No matter what I say or do I will never change the average owner, so I have to just sit back and garbage pick through their drops.

Leonys Martin owners haven’t had a lot to smile about so far.

Erik Johnson- Chicago White Sox- Starting Pitcher

Johnson had a lot of helium in early drafts before Alex Wood and Yordano Ventura stole all the pre-draft hype. Through his first two starts Johnson looked like he was going to prove that his draft stock deserved to be falling by looking very hittable. Those who dropped him may be kicking themselves after watching him dominate the Red Sox lineup yesterday to the tune of 9 strike outs in 6 and a 1/3 innings. Johnson is a fringe pitcher in 12 team mixed, but is a must roster in any larger leagues. His strike out upside is just better than what you probably have at the bottom of your rosters.

Dexter Fowler- Houston Astros – Center Fielder

Fowler started out of the gates hot and owners were patting themselves on the back just like last year that they took him late in drafts, but an illness has really sapped Fowler for the last few weeks and owners are starting to panic. He has been dropped in a ton of leagues for streaming types like David Murphy or Dayan Viciedo and that was a mistake. I am not a huge fan of Fowler. I’m not one of these guys that think he will all of a sudden put it all together and be a premier outfielder. (some people actually believe that.) I think he’s a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder to have who can fill power and speed categories when you’re in a pinch. He should be rostered in in all 12 team mixed leagues with at least 5 bench spots.

Kyle Seager- Seattle Mariners- Third Baseman

Seager is off to another slow start this year. Last season he was dropped almost everywhere in 12 team mixed leagues only to see him become a valuable asset down the stretch. He no longer holds second base eligibility, but third base isn’t the deepest position in the league. With players like Moustakas, Sandoval, Lawrie and Freese struggling and Middlebrooks and Beltre hurting it makes hanging on to Seager that much harder. The reason I say harder is because owners see third-baseman like Marcus Semien and Trevor Plouffe flying off the waiver wire while they sit on their hands. I believe owners should just keep Seager on the bench if they can. He’s too valuable as a third-baseman that has the ability to hit 20+ homers and steal 10 bases.

Khris Davis-Milwaukee Brewers-Left Fielder

Davis being dropped is an example of expectations being too high in the fantasy draft process. People were punting homers in the middle of their drafts thinking they were going to grab Davis late and get a potential 25-30 homer guy. That is a lot to ask of a young player. I still like Davis a lot, but I wasn’t banking on him as my steady 3rd Outfielder. Don’t cut bait on Davis just yet, unless there’s something crazy on the waiver wire. Keep him on your bench until he gets his feet under him and starts to get better pitches to hit. In leagues of 14 or bigger I wouldn’t think of dropping him yet. The Jason Kubel’s of the world will always be there to pick up if Davis is still struggling in a month or two.

Leonys Martin-Texas Rangers- Center Fielder

Martin is caught up in the downward spiral that is the Texas Rangers. The injuries to the pitching staff and lineup have lumped a lot of pressure on players that aren’t used to shouldering it. Martin’s spot in the lineup was always going to keep his numbers somewhat down, but he has gotten off to much slower start than I would have thought. He’s got zero extra base hits and only two steals so I can understand the frustration. Martin is another one I am holding on to with all my might and I’m even trying to target as a secondary throw in in trades. When the Rangers get healthy and the heat picks up in Texas I expect Martin to break out.

Some studs that I have seen or heard hit the waiver wire. Allen Craig (Dan Strafford just told me about this one), Wilin Rosario, and David Ortiz.

Some other guys people might be losing patience for that you should pick up. Brett Lawrie, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Billy Butler and Xander Bogaerts. I wish I played in more leagues where they hit the wire!