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Week 7 NFL DFS Podcast with Renee Miller

Episode 036: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 7 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 7 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

                                                            Last week’s Epic Battle on DraftKings between Renee and Dennis.

 

Week 6 Matchup between Renee and Dennis

Thank Yous For Episode 032:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week seven of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

The Golden Days Of DFS

DraftDay Sold

Recently one of my favorite daily fantasy sports sites, DraftDay.com was bought by MGT.  I have to say I am sad because my initial introduction to DFS was through playing RapidFire on DraftDay with David Gonos, Dan Strafford and Eric Mack.  I had no idea that this industry existed, let alone how fun and addicting it could be.

The great thing about Draft Day was the simple user interface and the really fun Rapid Fire games.  All you had to do was pick 3 out of 5 right and you double your bet.  The 5 for 5 Rapid Fire Max was the sucker bet of all sucker bets, but every once in a while I would still partake when I felt a lock lineup was picked.  It’s exactly like that side bet at the black jack table in Las Vegas.  Lucky Ladies where if you get two queens of hearts you get a 100-1.  How many times have I seen absolute drunkards losing all their money staying on 15 against a ten and then put their last 50 bucks on that sucker bet and…..WIN!

The truth is the DFS space is getting smaller.  New companies are coming along, but they can’t offer the high stakes games that the big boys like Fanduel, DraftKings and even DraftStreet can offer.  Even if they offer a lower rake or an easier interface and softer games the big money is always going to chase the overlay in the big guaranteed prize pool tournaments.

RotoGrinders Daily Fantasy Fix Podcast recently had Andrew Wiggins co-founder of DraftDay on after he sold his stake in Draft Day and the interview conducted by Dan Back is one of the best inside looks at the shift in the DFS market place that I have heard.  You have to understand that Andrew Wiggins was not only the owner of Draft Day, but is also a very good DFS player himself.  His expertise in Basketball is known to anyone who faces him in a 50/50 or tournament.

Quote from Andrew Wiggins about the sale of Draft Day:

“We have worked tirelessly to build an outstanding product and loyal player base. With MGT’s support, DraftDay will have greater resources to grow this business to new heights. Our employees look forward to making MGT the market leader in daily fantasy sports.”

Seriously, go take a listen then come back and read the rest.

Draft Day just couldn’t keep up with the huge contests that were being offered up at their competitor’s sites.  Andrew said they made a huge error in working on the site itself instead of raising money so they could attract more players.  I think anyone can understand the mistake that DraftDay made.  They simply looked at the wrong problem to fix.

I find myself wasting time doing the same here on my site.  Instead of providing my loyal readers fresh content, I fiddle with the look of the site or work on SEO issues.  People don’t come to my site for the ease of navigation or for the fancy pictures, they come to see if they should drop Mike Moustakas in season long fantasy baseball now or pay for Jose Fernandez in DFS.  I KNOW my problem and how to fix it and yet I still find myself wondering if I am going about this right.

I think that’s what got Draft Day in trouble.  They knew how to build a great user interface and how to create fun games with interesting salary structures.  They didn’t know how to raise money.  I have to commend Andrew for being so honest when he talked about all the financial backing DraftKings got this last year.  He wasn’t jealous in the least.  He was amazed.  How did they accomplish that?  I am the same way when someone in the same industry as me displays a talent that is just so foreign to me yet is exactly what you need to succeed.

Another thing mentioned by Andrew is that DFS players have no idea how good we have it right now.  It’s true, we really don’t.  We nit-pick at sites on slow nights and complain when there’s a lull in big contests.  Imagine how much we’re going to complain when all the overlay is gone, and the rake gets bigger.  We could see a future of only two massive sites where you literally can only play other sharks because all the casual players have been chased away.

We really are Jolly Green Giants walking the DFS earth.

Remember these are the golden days my friends and we will look back fondly on them.

 

 

Draft Kings Lineup

Swag Dome Lineup

Wed Lineup

 

PG- A lot of choices tonight, but Kyrie has been coming on and has been playing the SG position where he can get into better spots to score.  Not in love with the price, but no PG on the Lakers can stay with him.

SF- Rudy Gay going against the team that gave up on him in less than a season.  I like the payback factor here and Gay has been a beast since coming back from an Achilles strain.

PF-Sullinger is a guy that can be maddening in DFS, but he had a huge game against the 76ers last time out so I am going to hope he keeps it up.

C-The  minutes restriction seems to be over Varejao and he is facing a depleted Laker front line.

F-Kyle Singler gets the start for the Pistons and should be able to hit above value pretty easily.

This lineup obviously fades all the big names on Draft Kings tonight which isn’t usually the best strategy, but this is the lineup that had the most upside for me.   Good luck everyone.

DraftKings NBA DFS

With football season all but over and MLB still a few months away this new daily fantasy sports addict needed an outlet.  Luckily for me DraftKings was the perfect place to get my feet wet in NBA DFS.  While the winnings have been relatively small compared to my end of season in MLB DFS and NFL DFS, it has been a very fun ride.  

Here are some of my favorite plays and reasons for playing them tonight

Just The Guards Tonight

stephen curry

PG 

Stephen Curry 9,000

Curry is 1,000 budget dollars cheaper than he has been in recent games and that is a huge bonus for daily players.  He has one of the highest (if not highest) ceilings of any PG in DFS and DraftKings is basically bating you to use him.  Great small tournament play especially.

Kyle Lowry 7,400

Lowry has kicked it into another gear ever since General Grievous (Greivis Vasquez) was traded to the Raptors.  Lowry is a solid play against Minny as Rubio takes a few too many chances on D and loves to go under the pick in pick and roll situations.

Darren Collison 5,500

Collison has been very steady since taking over for the injured Chris Paul, but his ceiling is no where near as high as Curry’s.  It all depends on where you want to spend tonight.

SG

Again Stephen Curry and his discounted 9,000 figure.

DeMar DeRozen 7,600

DeRozen should hit value tonight against the Timberwolves, but he is not going to blow away his value numbers like some other SG’s might.

Jodie Meeks 5,800

Meeks has been in a lot of my lineups lately and he has been pretty steady.  With Nick Young suspended Meeks will benefit from a few more scoring opportunities .  His price is starting to get into the range where I may look elsewhere.

Avery Bradley 5,100

With Rondo back people may finally stop riding Bradley, but tonight is not the night to fade him.  Rondo will probably play between 20-25 minutes and Bradley will be a huge part of this offense with Rondo in or out of the game.

I also love JJ Redick for 5,000 against a tired and humiliated Knicks team.  Iman Shumpert is a good perimeter defender, but he may be licking his wounds after what the Pacers did to him and his teammates last night.

Feel free to tweet me @coachesser with any questions about which forwards or centers I have in play tonight.

 

Fantasy Football: Fanduel Thursday


Usually I like to leave the Thursday night game alone in daily fantasy football unless the match up is just too juicy and this week that match up is like a rare steak to a starved lion.  The New Orleans Saints had a rough and tumble game against the 49ers last week and get to play a division rival in a short week as a prize.  The schedule makers  looked cruel in the preseason as this could have been a huge game with division title implications, but that is not the case.  Luckily that division rival is currently in shambles as the Atlanta Falcons have imploded on both sides of the ball due to injuries.

With the Falcons defense looking like Swiss cheese you need to try and get at least one Saint in your lineup this week.

Drew Brees

Let’s take a look at Drew Brees and see if he will play at or above his value this Thursday.

Drew Brees- 309.41 yards and 2.94 TDs-(numberFire Projection)- 24.14 Fantasy Points -$11000 Salary

So Brees’s cost per point is $455.67.  That’s with me not including the potential for turnovers.  That’s a very doable number for me.   With little to no running yards expected by Brees he will have to put up a very nice game without any turnovers to make him a good play.

For Comparison

Case Keenum

Case Keenum-242.97 yards and 1.49 TDs-(numberFire)- 15.68 Fantasy Points -$6100 Salary

Keenum will scare off a lot of owners because of his benching last week, but there is no need to put him on your DO NOT TOUCH list.  He is facing the Jaguars who couldn’t contain Carson Palmer last week and supposedly has the full confidence of coach Kubiak.  His $389 cost per point is a very nice way to stack your team with high priced studs.   Remember I didn’t factor in any negative points for turnovers.

If you are going based on pure Cost Per Point then Brees would have to throw for over 310 with 4 passing TDs tonight to come close to a very low end projection of Keenum.

 

I suggest you build a team with both and see which lineup will score more points based on your most trusted fantasy projection site.  I prefer Brees for all 50/50s and Keenum for all bigger tournaments and expert (55K) heads up FanDuels.

 

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