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Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast with Renee Miller

Episode 026: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and Fanduel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week two of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.  We specifically talk about Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill, Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Terrance West, Mark Ingram, Bobby Rainey, Shonn Greene, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Andrew Hawkins, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz.

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You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

 

Thank Yous For Episode 026:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week two of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS.  Make sure you check back in the next few days as I will have a bunch of links to her latest articles.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

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How To Win Your Fantasy Football League

How To Win Your Fantasy Football League: From the 1 Spot

Some people actually hate drafting from the one spot this year in fantasy football leagues and I’m having a hard time figuring out why. The only thing I can come up with is that they are really buying in to the zero running back method and just can’t pass up on the big four running backs when they are lucky enough to draw the one spot.  They feel dirty going against their favorite strategy because they are forced (by peer pressure) to grab that consensus #1 pick in either Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy.  I really don’t understand the hesitation in following through with what you think is a winning strategy.

For me personally, I have hedged my bets quite a bit, by going with the zero running back method and going with a one running back method.  Both of these methods I prefer in full point PPR leagues where there is at least one flex, but I prefer them even more in multiple flex leagues.  In .5 point PPR leagues I find myself gravitating towards the one running back method.  Standard leagues are a horse of a different color, as they say.

Zero RB

demaryius-thomas

When I go zero-running back, I start off the draft with Demaryius Thomas (or Dez Bryant) and I watch the draft room go crazy.  The first barrage of insults is always the best.  Typical things you would hear from the future leaders of the world sitting on the back of the bus in middle school.  The next wave of comments are about going Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant over Calvin Johnson.  Sometimes the chatter and mind blowing can throw off some people who were picking in the wildcard spots (picks 6-10).  Either way, I sit as quiet as a school mouse, because just like at the poker table, I’m not there to give lessons on strategy and percentages.  I don’t give a *^it what John from Cincinnati thinks about how I’m building my team.

The two three turn is all about value at the wide receiver position.  The only thing that can stop me from taking two more wide receivers is if Rob Gronkowski gets to me, or if there was an incredible run on wide receivers.  Either way I’m not taking a running back there unless it was a crazy upside value.  For the purposes of this article, almost all regular home leagues will have Rob Gronkowski or Julius Thomas make it to the 2-3 turn and I believe that they are THAT MUCH better at their position (because of skills or situation) that it’s okay to take a player at a onesie position, especially if a tight end can be flexed.  If your league can flex a tight end than you have just trumped more than half of your league.

The wide receivers that I absolutely love to see fall to the 2-3 turn are Alshon Jeffrey, Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown.  For two of the three to get to you in a 12 team league there has to be some running backs going and maybe Gronk has already come off the board.  If the choice is between taking two of these receivers or taking one and Julius Thomas, then I will undoubtedly take the two wide receivers.  I love Thomas, but he’s not quite as special as Rob Gronkowski and these receivers are money in the bank.  In fact Alshon Jeffrey could make the leap above Brandon Marshall this season and I wouldn’t even be mildly surprised.

The 4-5 turn is where you can really separate yourself from the pack and you have to go all in and subscribe to the redundancy that Shawn Siegele preached last year.  The list of names that I love to see here are Michael Floyd, Michael Crabtree, Cordarrelle Patterson, Roddy White and now Victor Cruz is making it down that low.  If there has been a run at wide receiver I like to add Julian Edelman to that mix, especially in full PPR leagues.

The perfect 0-RB team would look like this from rounds 1-5

Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffrey, Jordy Nelson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Michael Floyd.

If Gronk falls to the 2-3 turn.

Demaryius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Alshon Jeffrey, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Michael Floyd.

The approach from there doesn’t change much.  I’m picking off more wide receivers as I go and waiting as long as I possibly can at running back and quarter back.  If it’s a four point passing touchdown league I’m trying to come away with Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick even later.  Home leagues tend to make this a little harder as QB’s go earlier.  If the quarterback landscape gets wiped out by the 11h round I will pull out my inner J.J Zachariason and wait it all the way out.  I’m not above grabbing Carson Palmer or Ryan Tannehill as my starter and just playing the match up game.  Shoot I may even go Geno Smith for the week one matchup against the Raiders and go from there.

The type of running backs I’m targeting when I go zero-Rb are the Jeremy Hill‘s and Devonta Freeman‘s of the world, with Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram sprinkled in.  The cost for both Lance Dunbar and Khiry Robinson has been rising so I usually don’t get a chance to grab them much.  Ronnie Hillman is also a guy I love as my RB5 when I go zero-RB.  He has a bunch of upside as a pass catcher and change of pace back in an offense I want pieces of.

The tight ends I really like are Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce late.  I also like to grab Heath Miller long after the tight end runs are over.  This may be the last year Miller pays off as a pass catcher, but his chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger is undeniable.  With Timothy Wright‘s trade to the New England Patriots, he becomes a nice flex stash as well.

One RB Method

McCoy

In .5 Point PPR leagues and where I decided to hedge my number one pick, the choice was easy.  I chose LeSean McCoy and never looked back.  McCoy’s age and the his potential to outperform last year’s numbers put him at the head of the class.  Charles and Forte are nice picks in full point PPR leagues, but I believe that last year was their ceiling as far as touchdown production goes.  There’s no way Charles matches or surpasses his receiving TD production from last year and Forte scored more rushing touchdowns than he ever has before and is entering his age 29 season.  Adrian Peterson isn’t even in the conversation for me as I just don’t see him being super human at this age.

My method after that is exactly like Zero-RB.  I take a wide receiver with every pick I can from round 2 through round 8.  The only places I don’t is when I take Gronk or Julius at the 2-3 turn, otherwise I gorge myself at the wide receiver position.  I tend to take wide receivers with more upside than safe picks when I go Rb first overall.  I may take Michael Floyd over Victor Cruz and scenarios like that, just so I have the upside of a possible low end wide receiver one and am not stuck with a wide receiver two with no upside.

I think these are your best bets to win your leagues from the one position and hope you use them to make lots of money this year.  On a side note if this doesn’t work out and Montee Ball wins a bunch of fantasy football leagues single handed, I don’t want to hear about it.

Episode 019: Fantasy Football Nick Mensio

Episode 019: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Strategy

Featuring: Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) Rotoworld.com

Nick Mensio
About My Guest: Nick Mensio is a football writer for Rotoworld.com. The 2014 NFL season marks his third with Rotoworld.

Episode Summary:  Nick and I discuss the wide receiver position in fantasy football.  We discuss if Calvin Johnson will be dethroned as the number one fantasy wide receiver and even talk a little about Miles Austin’s Hamstrings.  (Just a little)

Episode Rundown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know Nick a little.
  • The Big Six wide receivers?
  • Discuss options at the position in rounds 1-9.
  • Discuss the rookie class.
  • Discuss Late round targets.
  • The Coach’s Office, Brought to you by RevoLabels.com
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 019:  I want to thank Nick for coming on the podcast and discussing the wide receiver position.  After tonight’s episode I may have to go out and buy more stock in Dez Bryant.   I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

RevoLabels.com

Episode 011: Fantasy Football Salvatore Stefanile

Episode 011: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Two Quarterback Leagues

Featuring Salvatore Stefanile (@2QBFFB) SportableNFL

 

Salvatore Stefanile joins me to clown around and talk some Fantasy Football.

Salvatore Stefanile joins me to clown around and talk some Fantasy Football.

About My Guest: “Salvatore Stefanile, the winner of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series in 2013, is a big proponent of the 2-QB fantasy football movement . You can find his 2-QB musings at XNSports.com and on Twitter @2QBFFB. He’s also the content manager for Sportable — your place for interactive, bite-sized football news and fantasy football resources.” Articles and Posts referenced in the Podcast:

2-QB draft project for Sportable:  http://www.sportable.is/?c17889/fantasy-football/sportable-2-qb-draft-recap/  

http://www.sportable.is/?t17889/tag/sportable-2-qb-draft/

Recent 2-QB ADP (goes over some draft strategies)http://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/2-qb-fantasy-football-adp-post-2014-nfl-draft-edition/

                                                                                               http://www.xnsports.com/2014/07/06/look-quarterbacks-drafted-2-qb-fantasy-football-mocks-2014/

Top 250 overall 2-QB rankingshttp://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/top-250-overall-2-qb-fantasy-football-redraft-rankings/

Tiered QB rankings for 2-QB leagueshttp://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/tiered-qb-rankings-2-qb-fantasy-football-leagues-june/

Primer on 2-QB leagueshttp://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47389/404/the-two-qb-mindset

Fanium Fantasy Football: http://splash.fanium.com/

Episode Summary:  Sal and I discuss all of his current work as well as get to know everything about SportableNFL.  We delve into two quarterback leagues Vs. traditional leagues as well as strategy and specific player targets.  We may or may not discuss the movies Heavyweights, Good Burger and Youngblood.

Episode Breakdown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know Salvatore Stefanile and find out where all of his work can be found on the internet.
  • 2QB Vs. Tradional Fantasy Football Leagues and how the strategy differs.
  • Where’s the drop off for the top scoring QB’s this year?
  • What RB’s and WR’s should be looked at in the first two rounds of 2QB Fantasy Football Drafts?
  • How important is the tight end position in 2QB leagues?
  • Which QB2 in the current rankings has a chance to be a top 8 QB in Fantasy Football?
  • Which QB3 should we target as a bye week fill in/ trade piece?
  • Some 2QB Daily Fantasy Talk
  • Outro

 

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thanks For Episode 011:  I want to thank the guru of two quarterback fantasy football, Salvatore Stefanile, (@2QBFFB) for coming on The Fantasy Coach Podcast and enlightening me and my audience on the nuances and strategies that go into preparing for a two quarterback draft.  

I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

NFC East Wide Receiver Movement

NFC East Free Agency and Wide Receiver Movement

Rueben Randle warms up.

New York Giants: The Giants let Hakeem Nicks walk this off season and brought back an old Super Bowl hero as a sort-of replacement. The Giants had no designs on keeping Hakeem Nicks in the fold so it came as no surprise when he signed a prove-it deal with the Indianapolis Colts. Nicks’ declining health and skills wore on the Giants’ brass and fans alike. His Fantasy Football stock is at an all-time low even being paired with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, in Andrew Luck.

The sort-of replacement is none other than Mario Manningham. The Giants former third-round pick is back after spending two injury-plagued years in San Francisco. While having Manningham back in the fold feels nice as a fan of the Giants, I don’t expect him to start or to be an asset in Fantasy Football next season. Instead of replacing Hakeem Nicks on the Giants’ roster he is essentially replacing Louis Murphy, who had a very forgettable tenure with Big Blue.

The Giants should and probably will look to fill the void Hakeem Nicks’ exit has created by starting Rueben Randle and getting Jerrel Jernigan more involved in the offense. I do look for the Giants to draft an outside wide receiver this year, and could even see them taking Mike Evans if he ever fell to them. If Evans doesn’t fall to the Giants at 12 there will be a lot of talent at the wide receiver position available at their slot in the second round. Davante Adams or Donte Moncrief would be excellent second round picks.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have had a quiet off season as they are right up against the cap and have done some foolish things with their money lately. While Dez Bryantdidn’t quite take the leap to 1B to Calvin Johnson’s 1A as a fantasy wide receiver as many thought he might, he did put up solid numbers last season. Ninety-three receptions for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, but did leave some fantasy owners wanting.

The lack of a clear cut second option in the passing game hurt Dez Bryant last season.Jason Witten was another year older, and slower, and Miles Austin once again spent most of the season rehabbing his forever-pulled hamstrings. The only bright spot was they appeared to hit on their third round pick in Terrance Williams from Baylor. Williams had 44 receptions for over 700 yards and 5 TD’s in a rookie campaign that saw him grow. Williams is definitely a player to keep on your radar as a potential wide receiver 3 in 12-team leagues next year. In fact, if he has a good offseason you should target him.

Philadelphia Eagles: Can I just say wow! I knew DeSean Jackson had a high salary cap number, but after the season he had last year I was fully expecting the Eagles to extend him or at least have him play it out. Well, in today’s NFL you never know. Don’t get me wrong I know Jackson is tough to deal with, I often compare him to some of the prima-donna strikers you see in the English Premier League, but I didn’t think they would let their second-best player walk.

With Jackson gone the Eagles will feature Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position and Zach Ertz at the tight end position. I don’t think Chip Kelly realizes how much ackson helped the Eagles last year with his ability to make a secondary respect his deep speed, but Kelly will find out quickly if teams are able to stack the box to try and stop LeSean McCoy.

Obviously Cooper and Maclin get a big jump in value with Jackson gone, but the one who may benefit the most is Ertz. Ertz quietly had a very nice rookie campaign as he caught 36 passes for 469 yards and 4 TD’s. Even with Brent Celek getting some of the targets from the tight end position I am moving Zach Ertz up my fantasy rankings. I currently have him 12th before the NFL Draft. Maclin’s return from injury could have been a nice buy-low, but with Jackson leaving you may have to pay a premium to see if Maclin’s knee is really healed. He is currently the 37th wide receiver going off the board in my Fantasy League Drafts. Cooper will be a wide receiver 4 next season with the same volatility he had this year. He’s the perfect guy to take in best ball leagues or to play when you really need a high ceiling play.

DeSean Jackson Signs With The Redskins

Washington Redskins: The Redskins last year featured Pierre Garcon and…..well no one. The thinking was Fred Davis would finally come into his own well…..that didn’t happen. (He is currently suspended from the league indefinitely, oh and making really terrible rap albums.) The Redskins decided to address this lopsidedness in free agency and have been very active in free agency. They signed David Gettis, the former promising wide receiver from the Carolina Panthers. They signed the versatile Andre Robertsfrom the Arizona Cardinals. Roberts can play inside or outside and has always been a bit under rated.

I thought the Redskins may have been done there and assumed Garcon would still get the lion’s share of targets and production, but low and behold Dan Snyder saw Jackson hitting the street and he pulled out that big check book. Jackson had a career year last season with the Eagles with 82 receptions for more than 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. His numbers will probably never come close to those again, but he can still be a useful fantasy wide receiver.

The Redskins’ new head coach, Jay Gruden, is a west coast offense disciple. He will use the tight end, Jordan Reed. He will get the ball out quickly to wide receivers that can run after the catch, Jackson and Garcon profile as excellent west coast wide receivers, and he will will stretch the field with built in deep shots. Gruden’s Bengals last season relied on the deep ball a little too much and I think he will get back to a more ball control offense in Washington. Garcon and Jackson are both wide receiver twos with this move, but with them also sharing the ball with the gifted Jordan Reed I move them down to the bottom of the wide receiver two list. Garcon still holds more value for me in PPR leagues and I would still be comfortable with him as a solid wide receiver two there.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, @Coachesser and connect with me on Facebook. You can also read all of my articles on everything fantasy at Coachesser.com.

Fantasy League Commissioner Wanted

You don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.  While Cinderella’s early 90’s power ballad may have made me queasy Cinderellaat the time, truer words were truly never spoken.   I had no idea how lucky I was that my buddy from age five had been our fantasy football league commissioner for all these years.  He was truly unbiased and thoughtful in every situation.  Whether it was rule changes, votes for new members, or controversial trades, he always put the integrity of the league first.  Over these last 15 years, I now realize I have taken him for granted.  I never knew how much he improved my quality of life until I started venturing out into new leagues recently.

 

I feel like all three major sports leagues in the U.S. could take some notes from my old commissioner.  Roger Roger-GoodellGoodell with the NFL has put himself front and center in all things and only cares about his own legacy.  Bud Selig has made MLB an old buddy-buddy league that is full of underhanded dealings and biased rulings.  David Stern walks around believing that he made the NBA a must see league, even though it was the league that Magic, Bird and Jordan made.  I’m not talking about Gary Bettman because, well this isn’t Canada.  Is it?

 

I have joined a bunch of different leagues the last few years and found the commissioners have closely resembled at least one of the big three.  In one league, rules were changed after the draft that clearly benefited the commissioner and his cronies.  His Bud Selig impression was not appreciated and I was quickly a one and done league champ.  The worst situation was when I joined a dynasty fantasy football league that was clearly run by a Roger Goodell clone.  Every correspondence was rank with arrogance.  The straw that broke the camel’s back was when he traded for Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant and gave up Eli Manning and Michael Turner.  I died a little inside when I emailed the entire league to ask for some back up with my protests to this trade-rape, and found no backers.  When I pressed one league member about why he didn’t protest the trade he said, “It wouldn’t matter if we protested, the commissioner has complete autonomy over the league and will beat down any challenges in the ranks.”

 

Situations and priorities change, and so does life.  Three kids later, an ever growing workload, and free time that would only be envied by an indentured servant has made it impossible for me to take on the responsibility of being a league commissioner.  I feel like I would be unbiased, fair, and decent, but alas I am not available for the job.

 

The ones that are available sadly don’t measure up.  Think about it…who in their mid-thirties to early forties hasComic Book Guy time to run fantasy leagues?  Single guys in their thirties or forties have the time, but do we really want them in charge?  They are probably single for a reason.  They have either never had their stuff together long enough to impress a mate or have been found wanting by the opposite sex (or same sex) when given the chance.  Whether they lied, cheated, or stole none of these traits make for a good commissioner.  Ideally, you want your commissioner to be like the dad from Growing Pains, not Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons (Worst Commissioner Ever).

 

My real frustration comes from the laziness that has permeated some of these leagues.  Instead of having an honest commissioner make fair decisions on trades, I have been forced to deal with league votes.  How can a league vote ever be fair to a team in a playoff position?  It’s like having ten angry jurors deciding your fate.  Teams ahead of you have the bias of not wanting you to catch them.  Teams below you want to catch up to you and will not be happy if you strengthen your squad.  Then there is the team you are playing that week that has the ultimate bias.

 

Recently I made a trade that had to be put to a league vote.  The GM that I was playing that week told me he was voting against the trade solely out of spite. The trade would have given me a little more power and he didn’t want me to make up a disadvantage in homeruns that week.  I had to sit on my hands and hope everyone made a fair and unbiased decision.  It was gut-wrenching, but it eventually passed. (P.S. Chris Davis hit a two-run homerun on Sunday for me to tie in homeruns and give me the RBI category)

America-needs-you

So if you are reading this and feel you are a man among men, please step up to the plate and be a league commissioner.  Fantasy leagues need you, I need you, and more importantly, America needs you!

This article also appears at www.FantasyJudgment.com as part of a weekly series called Coach Esser’s Diary.

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