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Episode 056 Fantasy Football Bob Harris

Episode 056: The Fantasy Coach Podcast
Fantasy Football, Heavy Metal Music, and Life
Featuring: Bob Harris (@footballdiehard) of Football Die Hards (SiriusXM Radio)

Bob Harris SiriusXM

Show Rundown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know our guest:  We get to know a little about how (FSWA Hall of Famer) Bob Harris got into Fantasy Football.  We also discuss how the industry has grown and how he has grown with it.  Lastly, we touch on the future of Fantasy Football.
  • Music:  Bob and I talk about his love of musicianship and how his tastes turned to the heavier side of the dial.  We also touch on how my home town had a hand in the Thrash Metal Movement of the early 80s.  I am just a little jealous that Bob was able to see the Maynard Birthday Show.

 

Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast with Renee Miller

Episode 026: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and Fanduel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week two of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.  We specifically talk about Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill, Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Terrance West, Mark Ingram, Bobby Rainey, Shonn Greene, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Andrew Hawkins, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz.

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You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

 

Thank Yous For Episode 026:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week two of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS.  Make sure you check back in the next few days as I will have a bunch of links to her latest articles.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

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Episode 016: Fantasy Football J.J. Zachariason

Episode 016: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Quarterback Strategy

Featuring J.J. Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) of numberFire

JJ Zachariason
About My Guest:  JJ is the Editor-In-Chief at numberFire.com and author of The Late Round Quarterback, an e-book that dives into the strategic side of fantasy football. Prior to joining numberFire, JJ worked with the team at Pro Football Focus, and he still contributes at Rotoworld.com. He’s a Pittsburgh native currently living in Charlotte, North Carolina, and has a collection of over 70 jerseys.

Episode Summary:  JJ and I talk about his meteoric rise in the fantasy football community and how taking a chance and writing a book put him on a path to getting paid for what he loves to do.  We also manage to squeeze some fantasy football goodness in there, as we talk about the fantasy football quarterback position and where to find value.

 

Episode Breakdown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know our guest
  • The big three at Quarterback in fantasy football 2014
  • Which QB can crash the Big 3 Party? Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles
  • How deep is the legitimate QB1 field this year? Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger?
  • How important is QB consistency?
  • Which rookie QB could be fantasy football relevant sooner rather than later? Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater?
  • Which round does the LateRoundQB himself feel comfortable in drafting a QB?
  • The Coach’s Office:  3 Questions for our guest.
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 014:  I want to thank JJ for coming on the podcast and giving me more insight into his theories on streaming and when to target a quarterback in a draft.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Episode 011: Fantasy Football Salvatore Stefanile

Episode 011: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Two Quarterback Leagues

Featuring Salvatore Stefanile (@2QBFFB) SportableNFL

 

Salvatore Stefanile joins me to clown around and talk some Fantasy Football.

Salvatore Stefanile joins me to clown around and talk some Fantasy Football.

About My Guest: “Salvatore Stefanile, the winner of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series in 2013, is a big proponent of the 2-QB fantasy football movement . You can find his 2-QB musings at XNSports.com and on Twitter @2QBFFB. He’s also the content manager for Sportable — your place for interactive, bite-sized football news and fantasy football resources.” Articles and Posts referenced in the Podcast:

2-QB draft project for Sportable:  http://www.sportable.is/?c17889/fantasy-football/sportable-2-qb-draft-recap/  

http://www.sportable.is/?t17889/tag/sportable-2-qb-draft/

Recent 2-QB ADP (goes over some draft strategies)http://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/2-qb-fantasy-football-adp-post-2014-nfl-draft-edition/

                                                                                               http://www.xnsports.com/2014/07/06/look-quarterbacks-drafted-2-qb-fantasy-football-mocks-2014/

Top 250 overall 2-QB rankingshttp://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/top-250-overall-2-qb-fantasy-football-redraft-rankings/

Tiered QB rankings for 2-QB leagueshttp://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/tiered-qb-rankings-2-qb-fantasy-football-leagues-june/

Primer on 2-QB leagueshttp://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47389/404/the-two-qb-mindset

Fanium Fantasy Football: http://splash.fanium.com/

Episode Summary:  Sal and I discuss all of his current work as well as get to know everything about SportableNFL.  We delve into two quarterback leagues Vs. traditional leagues as well as strategy and specific player targets.  We may or may not discuss the movies Heavyweights, Good Burger and Youngblood.

Episode Breakdown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know Salvatore Stefanile and find out where all of his work can be found on the internet.
  • 2QB Vs. Tradional Fantasy Football Leagues and how the strategy differs.
  • Where’s the drop off for the top scoring QB’s this year?
  • What RB’s and WR’s should be looked at in the first two rounds of 2QB Fantasy Football Drafts?
  • How important is the tight end position in 2QB leagues?
  • Which QB2 in the current rankings has a chance to be a top 8 QB in Fantasy Football?
  • Which QB3 should we target as a bye week fill in/ trade piece?
  • Some 2QB Daily Fantasy Talk
  • Outro

 

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thanks For Episode 011:  I want to thank the guru of two quarterback fantasy football, Salvatore Stefanile, (@2QBFFB) for coming on The Fantasy Coach Podcast and enlightening me and my audience on the nuances and strategies that go into preparing for a two quarterback draft.  

I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

Fantasy Football: Fanduel Thursday


Usually I like to leave the Thursday night game alone in daily fantasy football unless the match up is just too juicy and this week that match up is like a rare steak to a starved lion.  The New Orleans Saints had a rough and tumble game against the 49ers last week and get to play a division rival in a short week as a prize.  The schedule makers  looked cruel in the preseason as this could have been a huge game with division title implications, but that is not the case.  Luckily that division rival is currently in shambles as the Atlanta Falcons have imploded on both sides of the ball due to injuries.

With the Falcons defense looking like Swiss cheese you need to try and get at least one Saint in your lineup this week.

Drew Brees

Let’s take a look at Drew Brees and see if he will play at or above his value this Thursday.

Drew Brees- 309.41 yards and 2.94 TDs-(numberFire Projection)- 24.14 Fantasy Points -$11000 Salary

So Brees’s cost per point is $455.67.  That’s with me not including the potential for turnovers.  That’s a very doable number for me.   With little to no running yards expected by Brees he will have to put up a very nice game without any turnovers to make him a good play.

For Comparison

Case Keenum

Case Keenum-242.97 yards and 1.49 TDs-(numberFire)- 15.68 Fantasy Points -$6100 Salary

Keenum will scare off a lot of owners because of his benching last week, but there is no need to put him on your DO NOT TOUCH list.  He is facing the Jaguars who couldn’t contain Carson Palmer last week and supposedly has the full confidence of coach Kubiak.  His $389 cost per point is a very nice way to stack your team with high priced studs.   Remember I didn’t factor in any negative points for turnovers.

If you are going based on pure Cost Per Point then Brees would have to throw for over 310 with 4 passing TDs tonight to come close to a very low end projection of Keenum.

 

I suggest you build a team with both and see which lineup will score more points based on your most trusted fantasy projection site.  I prefer Brees for all 50/50s and Keenum for all bigger tournaments and expert (55K) heads up FanDuels.

 

Fantasy Football-No Absolute Truths

Early August is a dangerous time for the casual fantasy football player.  The calendar page flips and draft dates start being thrown around in a never ending email stream.  While checking their kid’s play date schedules they check their favorite fantasy pundit’s twitter page.  They coast in and out of twitter conversations and check the occasional blog post.  They see a few experts agree with an upside potential of a fantasy running back and never think to check back before their draft.  It’s for these types of GMs that I write this warning.

STAY DILIGENT!

These casual GMs may have spied some great fantasy minds talking about how Montee Ball was a touchdown machine in college and will be a favorite of Peyton Manning.  They tuck this information away and immediately put Montee Ball at the top of their rookie running back chart and never hear about the weight that Ronnie Hillman gained in the off-season, or his excellent start to training camp.

There’s a reason that fantasy “experts” make the right choices during drafts.  They have all the information available.  They follow the beat writers.  They follow the film guys. (www.footballguys.com or www.ProFootballFocus.com)  They follow the the stats and metrics guys. (www.RotoViz.com or www.numberfire.com)  They also take all the views of the trusted opinion guys and make their own conclusions based on the strength of the arguments for and against certain players. (there are so many that I won’t mention anyone by name.)

Jake Plummer

I think it helps me in fantasy football that I am a skeptical person at heart.  I wasn’t always this way.  I was as gullible as they came when I was younger.  If you came up to me on the street and told me that you were a football expert and believed that Jake Plummer was the next great fantasy quarterback, I may have believed you. (Stranger on the street or ESPN the magazine, what’s the difference.)  Slowly over the years I have become more and more wary of people who offer free advise.

Calvin Johnson

You can never have an absolute “truth” in fantasy football.  If you don’t believe me, please don’t read any further.  I may ruin some of your preconceived notions.  I may have to spoil the fact that there’s no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy or even that rich Prince in Nigeria trying to wire you money.  The “truth” that fantasy experts advertise is a conclusion based on many, many factors that if they all align will see itself play out.  This year we have the closest things to “truths” at the top of every positional ranking.  Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham are all the odds on favorites to top their categories in fantasy scoring.  If any or all weren’t to finish at the top of their category it would surprise me, but I wouldn’t lose a night of sleep over it. (Unless I owned all of them!)

For example, while I was looking back at last year’s Rotoworld draft rankings for my long standing standard scoring league I realized that they had Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson as their 11th and 12th rated running backs in that particular scoring system.  Do I blame them?  Absolutely not.  A lot of people were scared off of Peterson after the knee injury, while others were skeptical of Lynch with an unsettled quarterback situation.  Imagine if I had picked at 12 in a snake draft and Calvin Johnson had gone in his customary top 7 spot.  I would have had Lynch and Peterson at the 1-2 turn there for the taking.  Would I have pulled the trigger in that scenario?  Who knows, but it makes me feel good to know that those types of things play out every year.

As Dick Vermeil said,”If you don’t invest very much, then defeat doesn’t hurt very much and winning is not very exciting.”

Invest the time this year and see all the angles of the bigger picture.  Take it all in and form your own opinions using every scrap of available information. Whether it’s playing the late round quarterback game, or getting Drew Brees at all costs, it doesn’t matter.  As long as you know all the factors to the equation.

 

 

 

Is Eli Manning Elite? From a Fantasy Football Perspective

Is Eli Manning elite? Ask a New York Giants fan and you will get an emphatic “Yes!” as they describe the Super David TyreeBowl winning drives and calm nerves displayed in every big spot. Magician-like throws to David Tyree and Mario Manningham are described in high definition quality while smiles spread across their faces. As John Malkovic in “Rounders” said,”The kid has got alligator blood.” Great quarterbacks are measured by championships and not by numbers on a page.

Win a road playoff game at Lambeau Field? Check!

Win a Super Bowl against an undefeated team of destiny? Check!

Face the New York Media day in and day out and never embarrass the franchise? Check!

You ask a fantasy football owner the same question and you get a completely different reaction. Most fantasy owners wouldn’t be very comfortable coming out of a draft this year with Eli Manning as their QB1 unless they were in a 2 QB league. Manning looked to be heading up the fantasy QB ladder after his fine 2011 season, but followed that up with an average 2012. He almost reached the magical 5,000 passing yard milestone in 2011 but fell 67 yards short. He threw 29 touchdowns against 16 interceptions and looked to be in a tier just below the top 3 fantasy QBs heading into 2012. His average draft position was at an all-time high last year as he was drafted as the eighth overall QB in fantasy drafts. Unfortunately Manning didn’t even reach 4000 yards, but still managed 26 touch downs in 2012.

While Manning’s disappointing 2012 in fantasy production may have left a bad taste in some mouths, I am not adverse at taking a second bite of the apple. I don’t believe his career is headed in the wrong direction. I really see him as being in his prime and just needing the pieces around him to play at a higher level. He still has the arm strength, he still has the alligator blood and now he has a healthy Hakeem Nicks. Not only does he have Nicks, but he has a motivated Cruz, an emerging Rueben Randle and a reliable Brandon Myers.

With opposing defenses being forced to defend every inch of the field again I believe Eli will put up excellent numbers. I project him for 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns. While I would love to think that Eli could challenge 5,000 yards again, I have to be realistic. Most QBs who throw for 5,000 yards get a lot of added yardage from dumping the ball off to running backs in the passing game. Look at what Darren Sproles has done for Drew Brees and what his absence has taken away from Phillip Rivers. Getting a feel for how to be patient and feel the defense on screen passes is an art. Wilson has the talent to be a weapon, but I need to see his feel for the passing game before I count on 500 or more yards from him. If Wilson ends up with the 280 yards receiving that I project for him this year than that puts Eli in the 4,200-4,300 zone.

Eli ManningI have Eli Manning as my last QB1 in a 12 team conventional scoring league. Many sites have Russell Wilson ranked ahead of Eli at this point, but I still feel Seattle is a run first team that won’t ask Wilson to do too much in his second year. Manning will more than likely be drafted from rounds 7 to 10 in 12 team leagues this year. Sometimes as a last resort QB1 and sometimes as a quality backup to a running QB like RG III or Cam Newton. While he may not be drafted high, Eli can still lead your team to the fantasy championship. He just might need a little help from your other positions. Eli is not in my top 10 fantasy quarterbacks as of right now, but he is the only QB I want with the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter of a big game in real life! Ernie Accorsi had the vision and the guts. Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride had the patience. And we as Giant fans are reaping the benefits.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on June 21st, 2013

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball.  I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about.   I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised.  Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year.  My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria.ian Kinsler  Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte.  My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy.  But my closers have been a mixed bag.  Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame.  I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire.  In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester.  I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft.  Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base.  I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two.  I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since.  That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft.  I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes.  I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft.  Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot.  He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed).  I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Tony ConigliaroBeing honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses.  Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results.  Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression.  I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded.   Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Drew BreesWeeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day.  Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps.  I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game.  I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire.  I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman.  After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out.  Right?  Right???

 

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