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Is Theo Riddick the Next Darren Sproles?

Fans of Darren Sproles may be a little offended by the headline, but we are forced to ask the question after ProFootballTalk made a story out of Detroit Lions’ back up quarterback, Dan Orlovsky, compared Riddick to Sproles in an interview on The Ross Tucker Football Podcast.

This kid, he wasn’t covered a single time in OTAs and minicamp,” Orlovsky said on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast, via the Detroit Free Press. “And I think that it’s even going to be easier for him when he gets pads on because, once linebackers just try to start colliding him, and that’s what teams started to do with Sproles sometimes. … You hit the home run once every 10 plays, and then 9 out of 10 times, Sproles wins. And that’s what I think Theo’s going to do for us. Theo’s that kind of guy where he has a really good feel, a really good vision, really good suddenness. If he doesn’t have 50 catches this year, I’ll be surprised. He’s going to have opportunities and he’s really talented at it.

I have been a fan of Theo Riddick since before he even stepped foot on a high school football field.  Theo grew up in the town right next to the town I live in, Somerville, New Jersey.  There was great debate about where he would attend high school and for a time it was thought that he may come to Somerville High School where I was coaching football at the time.  He ended up at perennial powerhouse Immaculatta  High School right in the same town and even shared a football field.  So instead of getting to coach him I was forced to try and help devise ways to stop him.

Theo getting ready to play the team I coached in Somerville.

Theo getting ready to play the team I coached in Somerville.

Needless to say, but my efforts to devise a plan to stop Riddick were in vain.  He was an exceptional high school running back with great balance and packed a punch at the point of attack.  He did lack that breakaway speed that all really great high school running backs seem to have.  Even though he wasn’t quite Reggie Bush in high school he was an absolute winner and leader.  He even led Immaculatta High School to a state title in Basketball his senior year. He went on to be all everything here in the state of New Jersey and eventually his exploits lead to a scholarship to attend Notre Dame.  Even as a rival coach, I was so excited for Theo to get a chance to show his skills on such a major stage.

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While at Notre Dame, Riddick bounced back and forth from running back to slot wide receiver and back again.  His senior year Notre Dame finally decided to lean on him as a runner and he showed he was a capable running back.  He topped 900 yards rushing while also catching 36 passes out of the backfield and split out wide.  Those statistics were nice, but were pretty pedestrian when compared to players that go onto NFL success.  Those stats alone should have meant he would at least get a look as a possible 3rd down running back in the NFL, but it all would be decided in his stats at the combine.

Sadly his combine was extremely underwhelming and it mirrored what everyone saw on tape.  He had great hands and was a tough runner, but lacked elite athleticism and speed.  These are the main points that one must remember when talking about Theo Reddick possibly being the next Darren Sproles.  Even with his bad combine, Riddick was drafted by the Detroit Lions in the 6th round of the 2013 draft.  Even if Riddick didn’t pan out as a runner they knew he would be a great character guy with a chance to help on special teams and on the scout team.

Darren Sproles K-State

In contrast the guy Riddick has been compared to the most this off season, Darren Sproles, had a tremendously productive college career at Kansas State.  He scored 48 touchdowns in the three years he was featured at running back and ran for 1,986 yards in 2003.  His height was always scrutinized as going to be his downfall in the NFL, but it actually became a strength as linebackers and safeties couldn’t set their sights on him as he came out of the backfield on passing plays and rushed the ball on draw plays.  His amazing combine should have convinced more teams to figure out a way to use him as an offensive weapon, but it took until the San Diego Chargers in the 4th round for a team to take a chance.  Check out Sproles’s 20 yard shuttle time.

Theo Reddick Lions

This off-season some buzz has been building around Riddick in fantasy circles and I think it’s time to temper the expectations a bit.  He definitely deserves to be looked at in full PPR dynasty leagues because I doubt Reggie Bush is a Lion after the 2014 season, but his redraft value is next to zero for me.  There are just too many mouths to feed in Detroit this season for Riddick to make an impact, but things could change if there are some unfortunate preseason   injuries.  If Bush is cut after 2014 than Riddick gets a big boost as the compliment to Joique Bell in the Lions’ backfield.  Just don’t do a bat flip like you hit a home run next off season when Bush gets cut.  It’s more of a seeing eye single in my book if he gets to share the 3rd down duties in Detroit.

Darren Sproles on the other hand still has some value in redraft leagues, especially full PPR redraft leagues.  The Eagles should be able to up the tempo even more in year two of the Chip Kelly era and Sproles could surprise with a bounce back year in Philadelphia.  He will probably never approach the running back two status he once had in full PPR leagues, but he could surprise in some best ball formats and as a running back four in PPR leagues.  It should be a fun off season to see how things develop for both Sproles and Reddick in fantasy football.

Make sure you Subscribe to The Fantasy Coach Podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio so you don’t miss any of the great Fantasy Football off season talk.  For the last episode featuring @2QBFFB head here to listen now.

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Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Crockett Gillmore

Crockett Gillmore

 

I’ve been talking about Crockett Gillmore a lot on Twitter and on Podcasts, but I thought it was time to put all of my thoughts about him down in one place.  You may say I obsessed over Crockett Gillmore a bit in the lead up to the 2014 NFL draft.  I’m a draft nut and love to semi-scout the prospects and project where they may end up.  I especially pay attention to positions that are a big need to my beloved New York Giants and the tight end position was just begging for some attention this year.

At first my Giants’ tight end hopefuls seemed like they would come from a very shallow pool.  The only tight ends I really knew much about were the top five prospects plus some tight ends I had used playing college football DFS.  I knew there was a big drop off after the 5th overall tight end, but Gillmore kept intriguing me.  I mocked the first three rounds of the draft over and over again and never once did the Giants draft a tight end in the top three rounds, and never once did any of the top five prospects make it to the fourth round.

I kept hoping the Giants had caught a glimpse of Gillmore plying his trade when they were scouting their second round pick Weston Richburg at Colorado State.  While it would have been nice to see Gillmore in a Giants’ uniform, his landing spot in Baltimore is almost as good as it gets for a developing tight end.  The Ravens had finally given up on Ed Dickson after the 2013 season and signed the oft-injured Owen Daniels in free agency to be their second tight end.  Incumbent starter Dennis Pitta is a favorite of many in yearly fantasy football leagues, but has missed time over the years with various injuries and is best suited playing in the slot or as the move tight end.

Besides having a very promising depth chart the Ravens also hired the extremely tight end friendly Gary Kubiak as their offensive coordinator to replace Jim Caldwell.  Kubiak has often been able to make multiple tight ends fantasy relevant in his offenses.  If the Ravens do go to more two tight end formations, which would help their sub-par offensive-line, Gillmore could get a lot more playing time then I am expecting.  If Kubiak has a nice long tenure as an offensive coordinator Gillmore could become redraft relevant in a few short years.

Now a little bit more about Gillmore:

Crockett Gillmore is a big tight end.  He doesn’t look that big on tape because he wore the number 10, but don’t be fooled.

He’s a bit raw as a tight end prospect because he’s only recently converted from playing  defensive end.  Some of the attributes that made him a defensive end give him a huge advantage as a tight end.  His long arms and huge hands show up in his game tapes as well as his high lights as he plucks the ball easily away from defenders.  When you watch his game tape he shows well, but he didn’t dominate the competition.  He’s a little slow, but moves smoothly though his routes and looks to have decent hips that allow him to make adjustments on the ball.  He shows great concentration making catches in traffic without a problem and was even used out wide and in the slot to create some mismatches for Colorado State.  When he was used in those spots his lack of quickness and agility showed as he didn’t have any shake in his game.

I was almost embarrassed that I thought Gillmore would be available in the fourth and fifth round of the draft after he was taken by the Ravens in the third.  Imagine the embarrassment of the coaches who didn’t select him to the Senior Bowl when he got the battle field promotion for shining at the East West Shrine game and then blew it up at the Senior Bowl.  I really can’t blame the coaches that much because Gillmore’s stats paled in comparison to some of the top tight ends in college football, but he was part of a unit that blocked for the leading rusher in the Mountain West Conference.  For a list of all of his accomplishments at CSU visit here.

The best part of Crockett Gillmore in dynasty fantasy circles is he’s still a bit of a secret.  He’s not talked about in the same breath as Troy Niklas and C.J. Fiedorowicz, but he has a very similar upside and may even have a better fit than Niklas.  While Niklas and Fiedorwicz are going in the first four rounds of rookie drafts in dynasty fantasy football leagues, Gillmore is going undrafted more than not.  In one rookie draft that I was a part of three Packer tight ends went before Gillmore even got a sniff.

In dynasty start ups he gets no love as well.  The whole point of dynasty teams is to have a sustainable franchise that will perform well year after year.  Gillmore could be a key piece to that as a bottom layer to your tight end roster.  You can build your tight end corps around some tight ends at the top of their game like, Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis and take Crockett Gillmore and C.J. Fiedorwicz late and hope one of the two hits it big as an every down tight end that ends up as a huge part of a red zone offense.

In redraft leagues he can be ignored for now.  Of course you have to keep him in the back of your mind in case Daniels and Pitta get injured, but don’t expect any breakout games like Jordan Reed had in 2013.  He’s going to get better and better as he gets used to playing the position, but don’t get him confused with an ex-basketball player that’s going to be a glorified wide receiver masquerading as a tight end.  His absolute upside is a very good impression of Heath Miller.  I’ll take Heath Miller in his prime any day of the week on my roster.

Robert Turbin Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

Dynasty owners who were stubborn with their investment in Toby Gerhart look like they will finally reap the rewards in 2014.  Gerhart is out from behind the enormous shadow of the all-world Adrian Peterson in Minnesota and is poised to be the main ball carrier and running back option out of the backfield for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  While, Gerhart patiently waited for his chance to shine, many dynasty owners had given up on him even though he put up very respectable numbers when given the chance for the Vikings.

Robert Turbin owners are in an even tougher situation in Seattle.  Not only is Turbin behind the rock-steady Marshawn Lynch, but he has the next Adrian Peterson, Christine Michael, leaving tread marks on him as he flies past him on the depth chart.  I have seen some Turbin owners become disillusioned with his future prospects when all they ever hear is how good Christine Michael is going to be.    I’m here to say stay strong brothers of Turbin ownership.

You are going to have to play the long game with Robert Turbin.  Turbin is signed cheaply though the 2015 season in Seattle, and is too valuable to the Seahawks as a pass catching option, who can pass protect.  While those skills are appreciated in Seattle, they may be even more appreciated somewhere else in 2016.

What does Turbin have going for him in 2016?

There are a ton of 27 year old and older starting running backs in the league right now.

Photo credit: Getty images

Photo credit: Getty images

Jamaal Charles 27

Matt Forte 28

Adrian Peterson 29

Marshawn Lynch 28

Chris Johnson 28

Ryan Mathews 27

Toby Gerhart 27

Reggie Bush 29/ Joquie Bell 27

Rashad Jennings 29

Maurice Jones-Drew 29

Frank Gore 31

Pierre Thomas 29

Arian Foster 27

Steven Jackson 30

Ray Rice 27

Not only are there a ton of older running backs at the back end of their productivity, but there are a couple of teams that are unsettled at the position.

Patriots- Is Ridley over his fumbling issues?  Can Shane Vereen make it through a season healthy?

Cardinals- Can Andre Ellington carry the load?

Dolphins- Knowshon Moreno is probably a stop gap if he even starts.  Lamar Miller has not shown mcuh in his two seasons.

Redskins- Does Alfred Morris fit the new offense?  Are Lache Seastrunk or Roy Helu able to be three down backs?

Robert Turbin will be 26 as an unrestricted free agent in 2016 when NFL teams may just be primed to pick up a young veteran who can play all three downs.

Turbin is a very strong and talented running back.  He just happens to be joined in the Seahawks backfield with two studs.  Here’s a highlight video of his rookie season from YouTube.  Careful it’s NSFW.  Watch without sound if you are at work or offended by curse words in songs.

Turbin’s size and speed stack up well against two running backs in Carolina, that he could eventually replace.  Here’s a chart from MockDraftable.com that shows his Combine Stats and how they rate against other running backs.

One more thing he’s got going for him, that actually means next to nothing in football skill terms, is he has the biggest biceps on a running back since Thomas Jones or Eric Bieniemy.

Things that are not in his favor:

-Robert Turbin does not have the pedigree that Toby Gerhart did coming into the NFL.  Gerhart was a Heisman Trophy runner up, to Mark Ingram, and won the Doak Walker award as the best running back in the country his senior year at Stanford University.  Turbin was a small school running back, Utah State, and was drafted 106th overall in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.  Where you’re picked and where you went to school don’t matter after you’re in the league, but if you don’t shine in your chances and really create an impression that you’re an NFL starter caliber running back then you have an uphill battle when it comes to getting a chance to start in free agency.

-The 2015 NFL draft class looks like it will be loaded with talent at the running back position.  While running backs may not ever go as high as Trent Richardson just a few years ago, they still dominate from the second round on as NFL teams try to stack talent in their backfields.

Karlos Williams Florida State

Todd Gurley Georgia

TJ Yeldon Alabama

Melvin Gordon Wisconsin

and at least for or five more backs that could be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.

-There are young backs behind some of the old guard around the NFL that may be able to step into a lead back role.

KC-Knile Davis

CHI-Ka’Deem Carey

NYG-Andre Williams or David Wilson

BLT-Lorenzo Taliferro or Bernard Pierce

SD- Marion Grice

ATL-Devonta Freeman

SF-Carlos Hyde

My Final Thoughts on Robert Turbin’s dynasty fantasy football outlook:

I’m not trying to sell you on the fact that Robert Turbin will eventually be a top ten fantasy football back in any format.  I’m just trying to sell you on the fact that there is an opportunity in Turbin’s future to become a valuable piece in your dynasty fantasy football team.  I think he’s more talented then Rashad Jennings and Jennings looks to have grabbed the starting job in New York, at least for the time being, and he’s younger and more talented then some running backs that other people have ranked ahead of him.

So…..if Turbin happens to be dropped in your dynasty league scoop him up and carve out a nice spot on your bench that may pay off decent dividends in 2016.  If you can sneakily include him in a potential trade acquisition where you are set up at the running back position for the next two years then do it!

 

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