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Don’t Set It and Forget It

Fantasy baseball is not a “set it and forget it” endeavor.  You don’t draft a team and send it out into the worldSet it and forget it without having to constantly tinker with it.  You may have three different players play second base for you in any given month while also having a different frontline starter based on that particular week’s matchups.  If we listed all the closers that will inevitably be jumping in and out of our rosters we could be here all day.

 

Setting your lineup is a lot like playing the stock market.  You can only ignore the trends for so long until you miss the boat.  Whether it be buying, selling, dropping or picking up players, you have to look at all the available information in a timely manner.  Being aware of the vital statistics can make a stock or a free agent a must buy or a player on your roster an instant drop.

 

Sometimes a player is just getting extremely lucky and his statistics are heading for a correction.  I am trying to avoid stepping into these bear-traps, but it can be difficult to differentiate between luck and player turning a corner.  You may get burned by not checking his BAPIP (batting average on balls in play) or his FB/GB statistics.  Luckily, there are so many resources for today’s fantasy GM’s that weren’t available just a few years ago.  I can go to a multitude of sites to see all the vital statistics and more while even the free apps from sites like Yahoo break down the basic statistics over time periods.  I can notice a player is hot while watching a series on TV, check my phone and see he is hitting .350 this month and then go to any site to see if his power is coming as well.

 

Too many GM’s treat their lineups like they are mutual funds or pensions.  They buy in and either through laziness or ineptitude let them twist in the wind.  While they spend their nights catching up on Breaking Bad and old reruns of South Park (Editor’s Note: there is nothing wrong with watching either of these shows), their lineups go through ups and downs not seen since Enron.  You offer them a trade and they literally have to check the site to see who is on their roster.

 

I, on the other hand, tend to be overly attentive, almost to the detriment of my free time (hmmm, maybe that is why I’m only on Season 2 of Breaking Bad).  I tend to tinker constantly as I check my lineups key statistics and try and maximize every week in my head to head league.  I read every article possible on would-be call-ups so that I can try to solve some of my team’s issues without trying to trade.  If I am lagging early in the week in stolen bases I will put Starling Marte or Brett Gardner into my lineup.  If I am behind in runs scored, then Matt Carpenter will start at almost any position.  Power is tougher to find coming off the bench, but I may have just recently found a few gems.

 

The fact that my league is position specific for outfield has been a real challenge.  Right field has been considerably shallow and I have been forced to play Carpenter or Adrian Gonzalez there while I have Corey Hart stashed on the DL.  If I played Gonzalez in RF, then I suffer at first base, and vice-versa.  Then along came a Cuban defector named Yasiel Puig.  You may have heard of him.  He has exploded on the scene and solidified my line-up with his power and speed.

 

I know what you’re saying – hold your horses buddy.  It’s okay to get excited, but let’s not pretend he’s the second coming.  But what if he is the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper?  It would be like adding a top 10 pick in the middle of the season for nothing.  How can you not get over-excited?  I know I am having trouble tempering my excitement and evaluating his current worth.

 

He could be a blip on the screen of my season or he could be guy to put me over the top.  We will all have to wait and see.  Many of my colleagues have been saying to sell high as we have all seen players do this before only to crash back down to earth, or worse, to the minors.  I even polled a few fantasy gurus to see what Puig was being traded for and names like Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton were mentioned.  I would jump at the chance to acquire any of those guys, but that is not what is being offered to me at this point.   On the other hand, I am playing the wait and see game.  I am doing the old “I came with nothing and I’ll leave with nothing if God will’s it.”  I just don’t know if I can live with trading him for a marginal player if he goes on to play at even half of what he is currently showing.

 

Yasiel PuigThere is a ton of risk with what I am doing as the Dodgers looked to have a full outfield with Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier when the year began.  Crawford and Kemp are currently on the DL, and Ethier has struggled for most of the season including getting benched before Puig was called up.  I am banking on Puig making it impossible to send him back down with his play on the field.  He was signed to a huge free agent contract so he is not one of these rookies whose service time is an issue and he has been setting records with every base hit.  He is electrifying a fan base that needed to wake up and probably hasn’t been this excited about a player since Fernandomania was running wild 30 years ago.  He also has gone from batting leadoff to batting fourth after only a week.  He has already arguably shown more potential in one week in the big leagues then Ethier has in seven years with the Dodgers.

 

Puig is not the only streaking player who has joined my team recently.  Adam Lind’s current form couldn’t be ignored as he hit over .400 over the last month and is even forcing his way into the lineup against lefties.  When the Blue Jays were forced to give up the DH in National League parks they decided to play Edwin Encarnacion at third base so that they could play Lind at first base to keep his hot bat in the lineup.  I know he probably won’t stay hot for long, but if I can get a productive month out of him then I am ahead of the game.  If there was a timeline for my lineup at first base it would read Gonzalez-Carpenter-Loney-and now Lind.  It might not be as easy as drafting Prince Fielder and trotting him out week after week, but if I end up winning the title it will be that much sweeter with all the hard work I put in.

This article originally was featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

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Don’t Drink The Sand

The perception of starting pitching depth on a fantasy baseball team is the same mirage that exists with respect to depth at running back in fantasy football leagues.  You are always one pitch or one carry away from being in a bind.  With pitchers, it could be age and frailty such as with Andy Pettitte and Jake Peavy.  Or perhaps it is flawed mechanics that have caused your fantasy ace, Stephen Strasburg, to start drawing comparisons to Mark Prior.  From forearm tightness to sore shoulders, fantasy GMs are constantly trying to avoid season-ending injuries to their starting pitchers.  On the other hand, running backs are just a few fumbles or a lethal hit away from being relegated to the bench.  The mere sight of your player on the week’s injury report will send many GM’s running to the waiver wire.  In the end, GM’s who thought they had plenty of depth at the position realize how shallow their rosters really are.

Coming into this fantasy baseball season, the best advice I received was to grab as many quality starting pitchers as possible.  Sure, draft the great position players early but make sure I stockpile as many arms as I could because you never know when injuries may occur.  I heeded this advice throughout the season thus far and picked up additional quality starting pitching even though I thought I had sufficient depth at the position to start the year.  I drafted Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Julio Teheran, Andy Pettitte, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren.  I quickly dropped Hammel and Haren for Shelby Miller and Justin Masterson.  I then dropped Pettitte for Patrick Corbin as I didn’t want another injury prone starter in my rotation.

Jake PeavyWe all knew Peavy was eventually going to be on the disabled list…we just didn’t know when.  Drafting Peavy was the equivalent of drafting Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden in a fantasy football league.  Doing either of these things requires you back them up with quality options.  Peavy had been performing well up until his last two outings.  I was relieved it was an injury (non-displaced rib fracture) and not ineffectiveness that caused his recent poor outings.

Well, the dreaded time has come for many fantasy owners including myself.  While I lost Peavy to the DL, he was not alone.  Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg and Brendon Morrow were also placed on the disabled list.  Morrow’s DL stint is a blessing after the way he has pitched.  But for Cueto, he just recently came back and started to look like his old self.  However, Strasburg is the one that scares me the most.  He was likely drafted very high and was counted on to Strasburg injuryperform at an almost Verlander/Kershaw level.  That hasn’t happened up to date and now he is injured again.  I’m pretty sure GM’s are cursing at themselves watching Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki tearing it up while Strasburg is on the mend.

I am happy to roll out my rotation week after week and try and weather this injury storm.  I am reluctant to trade my pitching because this is what can happen.  I may think I’m six deep at quality starters, but I’m always one pitch, batted ball, or slip in the shower away from combing the waiver wire.

This article was originally featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

A Reactionary Tale

Patience is the name of the game when waiting for a top draft pick to play up to their potential.  While MLB teams try to boost their prospects’ confidence with long stays in hitter-friendly minor league destinations or playing them in low pressure situations in the big leagues, fantasy GM’s are not afforded such luxuries.  We do not have the ability to drop our struggling draft picks in the batting order or send them to the minors to work it out (hey Ike Davis, I’m talking to you).  We can only banish them to our bench and hope they eventually play themselves back into our good graces.

A lot of GMs are demonstrating the patience of a two year old while waiting for their players to get back on track.  I have seen last year’s NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey actually come across the waiver wire in one of my leagues.  While Dickey’s WHIP is not what it was with the Mets last year (1.31 vs. 1.05), his strikeout rate has been getting better over his last few starts.  I think the adjustments to switching leagues, as well as early season injuries, have gotten Dickey off to his rocky start.  Who knew knuckleballers could suffer minor injuries that affect their statistics?  If Dickey can cut down on the walks and stay healthy he can make it back to the top of a fantasy rotation.

Julio TeheranJulio Teheran was every experts’ pick to be the next big thing coming out of spring training.  While Matt Harvey and Shelby Miller have performed like fantasy studs to start the year Teheran has slowly built up a little steam.  He showed poor command and little fantasy value as he started the year cold.  He started the year with a whimper as he shelled by the lowly Cubs.  He was able to escape without a loss thanks to the Upton brothers and Carlos Marmol, but his next few starts were not much better.  He has slowly worked his way back to fantasy relevance ever since.  His 9.00 ERA has come down to 3.99 and his record is a respectable 3-1.  His 5.4/9 K rate and 1.35 WHIP show that he is not yet a fantasy star as many predicted, but if his current form continues he could be a nice pitcher to have on your roster (especially when he faces the offensively-challenged Mets and Marlins within the division).

Whenever I look at a surprise name on the waiver-wire I am reminded of a fantasy football all time blunder in one of my fantasy football leagues.  The year was 2001 and everyone and their mother were looking for the next Terrell Davis to take them to the championship.  Priest Holmes had moved from the world champion Baltimore Ravens to the Kansas City Chiefs and looked like he could be a nice RB2 if he was given a chance.  After week two of the NFL season Holmes had a combined 51 yards rushing with zero touchdowns.  A very good friend jettisoned him to the waiver-wire and the rest is history.  Holmes rushed for over 1,500 yards with 600 yards receiving to go along with ten touchdowns.  He went from a waiver-wire refugee to a fantasy football stud.

Priest HolmesI refuse to be the next guy to drop a future fantasy MVP before the season even heats up. I saw my friend desperately try to make up for his big mistake, eventually trading for Holmes a few years later just so he could put that miss-step behind him.   I will place Josh Hamilton and B.J. Upton right where they belong, sitting next to each other on my bench while I weather the storm with the Jason Kubel’s  and Dominic Brown’s of the world.  Just because your guys go through a cold streak or are at the top of Yahoo’s most dropped charts doesn’t mean you have to panic.  Just try to be patient and think of Priest Holmes running into the end zone for someone else’s team.

This article was originally posted at www.FantasyJudgment.com

Bad Trades = Cell Phone Voicemails (How to ignore and discourage both)

Is there anything more annoying than a terrible trade offer in one of your fantasy leagues?   The only thing comparable would be voicemails on my cell phone.  I avoid responding to both out of sheer principle.

 

One has become an epidemic since I last played fantasy baseball in the 1990’s.  The other is a dinosaur that should be avoidable with all of the easier ways to say “hello” or to see how I am doing.  Hasn’t anyone ever heard of even trades, email, text messages, Google chat, or even Facebook messenger?

 

Bad trade offers were much tougher to even attempt when everything was done face to face or over the phone.   If someone offered me Edward Mujica for Troy Tulowitski in a bar, I could at least make them buy me a beer for having to listen to that nonsense.   If they tried that over the phone, I could actually hang up and let them know how Fantasy Baseball Nerdoffended I was.   But now sitting behind a keyboard, fantasy GMs have no conscience when sending out their offers.

 

I understand the impulse to ask for the ridiculous.   You never know unless you ask.   But the anonymity of the computer age has made leagues almost unbearable.   A fellow GM offered me two waiver pick ups (who should still be on the waiver wire BTW) for my best starting pitcher.   He then got offended when I didn’t answer back in a timely manner.

 

I’m sorry I didn’t know I was holding up his attempt at league domination by not responding to the crap currently in my inbox.   I have even got the halfhearted messages explaining to me how this awful trade makes my team better.   Really? A fourth closer for the number one fantasy shortstop is my ticket to a championship?  Who knew?   I guess all that work I do breaking down numbers and trying to make my team the best it can be is all for nothing.   I should just have this guy put together my team and the league championship is all mine.

 

I could have instantly rejected the idiotic trade offer, but I chose to avoid it like the long-winded drunken catch-up voice mail from my old college buddy currently blinking away on my cell phone.  I am keeping both for posterity.   The next time I see someone from my league, I will whip open my phone and say “look at this!”   Can you believe he actually tried that?  Then we will try and one up each other with all the bad offer stories we have from our multiple leagues.

I guess it goes to show that there is a feeling out process when joining a new league.  People don’t know each other all that well and feel like they need to try and see who the sucker is.   I understand that we all have made terrible trades when we first started playing fantasy sports.   Mine was trading Jerome Bettis for Reggie Rivers (the man who took over for Barry Sanders) when I was introduced to fantasy football.   I have never forgiven myself and have never done business with that GM again.   That was almost 15 years ago and it still stings like it was yesterday.

 

Luckily nowadays, newbies to fantasy sports are protected by league votes and impartial commissioners.   If both are in cahoots, you can even go to an arbitrator to try and reach a resolution.   I know if there was a problem in my league we would immediately go to fantasyjudgment.com and let someone outside of the situation rule on a league controversy.

 

You didn’t have that back in 1999.  All you could do was complain to an uncaring bartender at your local watering Yuenglinghole and learn from your mistakes.   I don’t know which I prefer; the old face to face handshake deals or the faceless emails.   Both have their pro’s and con’s, but I think I miss sealing a trade over a nice tall Yuengling Lager.

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball.  I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about.   I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised.  Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year.  My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria.ian Kinsler  Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte.  My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy.  But my closers have been a mixed bag.  Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame.  I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire.  In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester.  I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft.  Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base.  I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two.  I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since.  That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft.  I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes.  I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft.  Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot.  He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed).  I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Tony ConigliaroBeing honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses.  Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results.  Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression.  I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded.   Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Drew BreesWeeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day.  Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps.  I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game.  I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire.  I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman.  After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out.  Right?  Right???

 

The Pull of the Waiver Wire

The call of the waiver wire is as irresistible as a Siren calling me towards a rocky shore.Siren  I cannot help but peek constantly at all of the unwanted players that could be the key to a championship season. The songs are full of homeruns and stolen bases, but when you get up close you realize they are actually strikeouts and hitless nights.  Unwanted relievers that look like save opportunities are actually WHIP and ERA killers dressed as shaky closers.

While it has been a long time since I have visited the baseball version of this island, my years of fantasy football have prepared me to navigate these rough waters.  Some early season struggles of mid-round picks may send some GMs to dispatch their weak link early.  Meanwhile, it can be a great place to buy low for the knowledgeable GM.

Some names that recently hit the waiver wire in my head-to-head league include late round sleepers, solid bench players, and even a former MVP.  These players include Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner, and Justin Morneau.  None of these players are going to make or break a fantasy team, but I had to pinch myself to see if this was a waiver wire reality or a free agent fantasy.

Both real and fantasy baseball pundits have repeatedly proclaimed that “Moustakas is going to hit.”  Maybe so.  But for now I would rather hold the fort down with guys like Chris Johnson and Jason Donaldson until Moustakas figures it out…on my bench.  Brett Gardner was supposed to fill your stolen base quota, but instead he has opened the season like he was stuck in second gear. If he’s not stealing now, he will be later in the year.  Don’t let another GM reap the benefits of your quick trigger finger.

Kyle Seager has way too much upside to put on the waiver wire, even if he is batting against the wind.forrest gump  Seager is someone you should hold on to, especially since he is eligible at second base in some leagues.  Even with his recent hot streak, his batting average hasn’t surpassed .250 which is demonstrative of how poorly he started the season.  Finally, I was quite surprised to see 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau Justin Morneauon the waiver wire.  Granted, if he is not hitting for power then he can possibly drag your team down in several roto categories.  But he appears healthy and is a strong candidate to be traded at some point during the season.  He would be worth your while to simply stash on your bench until he gets hot later in the year.

Moving on to the pitchers, many big names have surprisingly found their way to the waiver wire after failing to quickly rekindle their past glory.  Dan Haren and Josh Johnson are two prime examples as GM’s might begin to hit their ejector seat buttons. (Chad Billingsley was originally on this list before it was revealed he required Tommy John surgery).  Haren has been very shaky after a terrible 2012 season,and I see him as surplus to requirements in almost every format.  Johnson is one of the most injury-prone pitchers in baseball, and is playing in a park that is not very friendly to sinker-ball pitchers.  He got off to a very poor start in 2013, but he can still be a fantasy asset and is playing for a contract which is always an added motivating factor.

Finally, I must acknowledge that I have been greatly amused watching the train wreck otherwise known as the always-evolving “Closer Carousel.”  Newly acquired Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan started out hot, cooled off, got hurt, and now looks like an afterthought with the job Andrew Bailey is doing.  Carlos Marmol and John Axford lost their jobs during Week 1 with epic failures.  Then Marmol has some success pitching in a setup role.  As soon as he is given another chance to protect a lead, he fails…again. I mostly put his recent blown save on his manager, who brought him in the day after throwing over thirty pitches in a two inning outing.  Not to mention Joey Votto was overdue against him and a runner was already in scoring position.  I, like most GMs, are happy to avoid the headaches and indigestion that some of these bad closers can cause.Mike Shanahan  The Detroit Tigers closing situation has been like a Mike Shanahan running back competition.  First it is this guy, then it is that guy, and now it’s Jose Valverde all over again.  There is a very good chance that this will change again by the time this article is published.

PS Axford might get his closers job back………

You can also see this article featured at Fantasyjudgment.com as Coach Dennis’s Diary

Bad Picks = Bad Beats

Now three weeks into the season, it is easy to start second-guessing yourself.  Do you have a gaping hole in your lineup thanks to an early round gamble on an injury-prone star such as Jose Reyes?Jose Reyes  Has that “sure thing” and “can’t miss”stud turned into a bench-warming nightmare such as Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp?   Are you paying the “Price” for taking last year’s Cy Young winners and overlooking Matt Harvey later on in the draft?  Is “Cain” not able?  Rather than dwell on all of your mistakes, you should bask in the glory of the small victories you attained.

It is easy to get down on yourself and play Monday morning quarterback.  Instead, try and focus on all the smart picks you made.   Maybe you took late bloomer Chris Davis in the later rounds and have been reaping the benefits of his newfound confidence ever since. Chris Davis Homerun If so, your own confidence as a GM should grow as well.  Maybe you went with your gut looking for an outfielder and grabbed Dexter Fowler, and in the process bypassed roto darlings Brett Gardner and Angel Pagan.  Maybe you are skeptical of medical records and physicals so you drafted Mike Napoli and now look like a genius.  Or, maybe you smartly grabbed an established second baseman such as Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler instead of getting tempted by Jason Kipnis or Emilio Bonifacio.

 

Focusing only on the missteps can drive a fantasy baseball GM mad.  I would equate this mentality to the poker player who dwells on his bad beats. Bad Beat  You played the hand by the percentages and with perfect mathematical precision, but the other guy just happened to get lucky.  You can drive yourself crazy replaying these hands and bad picks, over and over again.   But eventually, you realize you could not and should not have done anything differently.  After all, David Price at the top of the third round is something I would take any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

As the saying goes, focus on the good things and don’t let the bad get you down.  Don’t let early season struggles become a cancer on your fantasy team.   I realize symbolizing an under-performing fantasy baseball as a cancer is a bit extreme, but it fits.  Think about it – the GM feels as if the struggling player is sucking the life from his team, but most likely that player is too good to drop (think BJ Upton, Jason Heyward, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ike Davis).  You should not be running around your league trying to trade your bad apple because that apple will look awfully rotten if the other GMs get to talking.

 

It is advisable to hold on to the underperforming star player and think long-term.  They can always be stashed on your bench during serious cold streaks.  Do not make rash or impulsive waiver wire decisions based on these early season anomalies.   Instead, you can make up the difference by picking up valuable players while dropping the dead weight.  Players like Jhoulys Chacin (currently on 15-day DL) and Ross Detwiler would be nice upgrades for some of the bigger names that are droppable such as Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson.  Don’t rush to drop Jarrod Parker, Josh Johnson, or Brandon Morrow.  They have too much upside to put out on the waiver-wire right now.

Back to Bases!

Welcome back to fantasy baseball (insert my best Horshack voice).  No, I am not that old that the last time I participated in a league was during the time of bellbottoms and Oscar Gamble’s afro.  Rather, it was during the time of flannels and the greatness of Seattle, both in music and on the field.  This is my ongoing diary for Fantasy Judgment of my experience venturing back into fantasy baseball.  I will provide insight and observations throughout the season of my team, league, and general perception of fantasy baseball from the perspective of someone who has been out of the game for awhile and is now back.  Think of me as the Unfrozen Caveman Fantasy Baseball Player.  FIRE BAD!

Pearl JamA lot has changed since the late 1990’s. Seattle is now known for its coffee and its baseball team is a cellar dweller with only a few players worth drafting.  (Editor’s Note: thanks to the Houston Astros, the Mariners are almost guaranteed not to finish in last place in the AL West).  The players around the league don’t quite fill out the uniforms, or the box scores, the way they did in the 1990’s.  It is no secret that players’ statistics today pale in comparison with those achieved before the Mitchell Report.  Gone are the days of middle infielders dominating the homerun and RBI categories (thanks Bret Boone).  If anything, Major League Baseball is now reminiscent of the 1980’s in terms of positional values.  The best example would be Robinson Cano having equivalent value as Ryne Sandberg did in the mid 1980’s.  I am quite happy about that because I feel this trend actually helps me in my comeback quest.

Kelly GruberI started playing fantasy baseball in a Rotisserie league in the late 1980’s and absolutely loved it.  I assigned players a value based on position eligibility and looked to maximize my dollars according to the values I assigned during our league auction. The draft was everything I had hoped it would be – exciting, fun, and all together exhilarating. The rest of the season was always a letdown. The time before cell phones and the Internet did not make a long season exciting. I would follow my teams performance in the Daily News box scores, but there was no league banter or trades of any kind. The last thing on anyone’s mind was riding a bike across town just to get Tim Wallach or Kelly Gruber, when your Yankee third baseman didn’t materialize. Teams would be drafted and set adrift, and it would always leave a bad taste in my mouth.

The late 90s offered more excitement with the Internet being utilized, but once again getting a league to actually care, and stay interested for 162 games grew impossible. We were latch key kids who had grown up with the remote control. We had the attention spans of 6 year olds listening to a lecture. If you were not entertaining us than you were switched off.

Fantasy football became my passion. A draft that had all the excitement I was looking for, and a short season that kept mine, and everyone else in the league’s attention. The format was perfect, head to head week after week, divisions and playoffs culminating before the end of the season. Fantasy football and the rush associated became a increasingly addictive. I joined more and more leagues. I went through withdrawal after the season ended, even if I won the title. I would count the days to the draft, and look at meaningless Football news in the middle of May as if my life depended on it.

I needed an intervention, or at least a good fantasyadone clinic. Now at the height of my addiction, in walks a head-to-head fantasy baseball league and my attention is grabbed. I was still following baseball and all of its storylines, but had pretty much become New York-centric. If it didn’t have to do with the Yankees or Mets, I really did not care.

I was going to have to do some homework and fast. Luckily all of my draft strategies and GM skills easily translated to the new format for fantasy baseball. First and foremost I was looking at which positions were deep and which positions I needed to put a premium on based on scarcity. I also did the leg work and polled other GMs as to the pervasive draft strategies that I needed to try and stick to. The biggest tip I got was to try and get a stud number one starting pitcher in the first three rounds. If I didn’t, I would be gambling the rest of the draft to make up the difference. This theory easily paralleled my draft strategy in football as it is always imperative to get a top 6 quarterback in the first three rounds, otherwise you are gambling the rest of the draft with unproven commodities. While RG3 and Andrew Luck carried teams early, late in the season the owners who gambled on them mostly fell to the wayside. I feel the same way about GMs in fantasy baseball who think they are going to ride Matt Harvey and players of his ilk to the Promised Land. It’s a long season and I want a player that has been there and done that, not one that I have to draft way to early and hope that they are the exception to the rule.

I hope you tune in and don’t change the channel as I update you throughout the year on my reintroduction to fantasy baseball.

 

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