While Fantasy Football prognostication is not an exact science it is always good to look back and figure out if your reasoning in making a particular decision was sound. Yesterday the FFCounselor hosted a round table discussion taking a look at some of the biggest hits and misses from the first 6 weeks of the fantasy football season. Liz Lola and Sean McMahon added their excellent insight into looking back before the playoff push begins.
With the Rams running back situation currently in a state of disarray I wanted to take a look at who was really to blame for their running game problems. The running backs suffer from a lack of elite talent, but they should be able to produce at least replacement level production and aren’t so far this season. The offensive line was supposed to get a boost from the signing of Jake Long, but he hasn’t played up to expectations and the rest of the offensive line are not doing the job. The real problem seems to be the running game concepts and the play calling.
For an example I picked an early play from the first quarter of the 49ers Vs. Rams game from last Thursday to demonstrate the problems. The score was 0-0 and the Rams were driving towards the first score of the game in a big divisional game. The situation was 2nd and 2 at the 22 yardline of the 49ers at 8:08 of the first quarter.
The Rams come out in 21 personnel with the Fullback (who was a college tight end) Cory Harkey lined up to the weak side. The 49ers are in a base 3-4 and both safeties are deep. It is an ideal situation for the Rams to pick up an easy first down.
With most running plays the design is always to leave the running back with a one on one situation with a defensive back. Even if your lineman can’t sustain a block on a linebacker if you impede the linebacker’s path to the hole you can pick up positive yardage. With this alignment there are a few plays that can pick up a short first down, but quite a few that could produce a long gainer. I would be attacking the strong side of this defense. I would block down from the RT down and bring Harkey over to wham on the defensive end. Kendricks who has been a poor blocker this year would only be asked to wall off the outside linebacker and the RT Joe Barksdale would block down on Navarro Bowman. You double-team Dorsey to wall off the backside ILB and Williams is asked to make sure there’s no penetration from Justin Smith.
The only glaring flaw that I could see looking at the personnel pre-snap is that Harkey is not a natural fullback and lacks running game instincts. If Ray McDonald really squeezes down then Harkey can log him and Richardson can bounce outside the block and inside of the Kendrick’s block. Let’s see how the Rams decided to attack this juicy defensive set up.
As you can see the Rams decided to run to the strong side, but had a very poor run game design. ILB Navarro Bowman is completely left alone and the fullback is not even utilized. I can’t be sure that Harkey actually did the right thing on this play, but the blocking scheme on the strong side is more worrisome. There was absolutely no reason to double team Ray McDonald on this play. They leave the center singled up with Glenn Dorsey who immediately feels the run going to his left and takes the center for a ride. The hole just isn’t there. If Harkey had attacked Bowman there would have been a very nice cutback seam for Richardson, but for some reason he buries his head into Justin Smith’s legs. Daryl Richardson can’t bounce it outside because of the the way Kendricks is asked to block the OLB. He can’t cut back inside because Bowman is left alone and is shadowing him in the hole. He was lucky to be tackled for no gain.
This is the play I would have called. I am not saying it would have been a touchdown, but it definitely has a much better chance at succeeding. You have to put your players in the best situation to succeed. If you ask too much of a player you can’t be upset if they don’t come through.
The insertion of power back Zac Stacy should help the Rams move the ball even when there is the smallest of holes. I am hoping the Rams use a combination of Richardson and Stacy and take a look at their core running game concepts to make changes. I don’t recommend blowing your entire budget in your fantasy football league on the news that Stacy is starting, he is definitely worth a stash in all 12 team leagues are larger.
Fantasy Football Leagues Come in All Shapes and Sizes
From “Redraft” to “Pirate” I’m here to tell you about all your options.
Keeper Leagues
Did you ever draft a player and wish he could be the corner stone of your team for years and years? Of course you have, unless you’re like the guy in my keeper league that only shows up to bum cigarettes and complain about his marriage. If you’re like him you always take the wrong player in the first round and are constantly wanting to throw all of your players back in the draft.
I, for one, love keeper leagues. You get all the benefits of being a strong redrafter with the added bonus of building your teams around a singular fantasy asset. If you’re lucky you may even have a double keeper league and you can turn that keen late round drafting eye into multiple championships. For example, in my double keeper league players like Alfred Morris, Randall Cobb, and Danny Amendola were kept as 10th round keepers this year.
Dynasty Leagues
If you want a real challenge you should try and join an existing dynasty league and try and build a perennial loser into a champion. This type of fantasy championship is so satisfying that you may find yourself joining every dynasty league you can. It would be as if you were a Raider fan and suddenly Al Davis left the team to you in his will. You show up to work and realize the team was mismanaged for years and you won’t be competitive for years. You make shrewd move after shrewd move until suddenly you go from cellar dweller to championship contender.
If that seems like too much work you can always join a dynasty startup league where you can draft your team and keep them for ever. If you are a good dynasty drafter you can both compete for a championship in season 1 and build for the future at the same time. The best thing about dynasty leagues is that trade talk is year round. Players and picks are always on the block and every off season move by teams around the league are checked over with a fine tooth comb. It takes a different breed to be a dynasty owner as it takes serious dedication. If you are only a casual fantasy football player please don’t join a league because you will just end up quitting.
Redraft Standard Leagues
Standard scoring is going the way of the dodo bird in most fantasy circles, but you better be ready for a different way of valuing players if you are invited to join a standard league. yardage and touchdowns are the only thing that matters. You need players that get in the endzone and rack up the yardage no matter how they get it. For instance if you took Darren Sproles in the second round of a standard draft you may get a Bronx cheer from the league.
Redraft PPR leagues
I would call this the “Cadillac of fantasy football leagues”. Just like Hold ’em is to the poker world now, PPR leagues are just assumed when talking about redraft values. Players like Darren Sproles and Wes Welker have been on more winning teams because of their big reception totals then players like Stevan Ridley and Dwayne Bowe. These leagues a re dime a dozen and after a summer of doing rankings I can do a draft blind-folded.
Best Ball Leagues
You can do “just draft” best ball leagues or “manage” best ball leagues. With either option you draft a team and the best at their respective positions are used as starters. In “just draft” formats you are helpless against injuries and can not use the waiver wire or trades for reinforcements. In “manage” best ball formats you can still make pickups and trades, but the pressure of starting or sitting you best players is taken away. These leagues are the best for work leagues and small buy in leagues. There is nothing more awkward than yelling at your boss on a message board for starting a player on a bye.
Survivor Style Leagues
Most of these leagues are done as best ball and for small buy ins. You draft a team and hop you don’t score the least amount of points each week. The lowest scoring team is dropped each week until there is only one winner. Some survivor style leagues drop the lowest total score each week including the previous weeks’ totals. These are great leagues to do with a group of friends that can only stay in touch over the internet. You do a slow e-mail based draft through a site like MyFantasyLeague and when it’s all said and done only one of you comes out on top.
Pirate Leagues
This is my first year participating in a pirate league and I can tell you that a close week 1 matchup will have you on the edge of your seat. The idea of the league is that you plunder the team that you beat head to head each week. To the victor goes the spoils as they say. My week 1 matchup literally wasn’t decided until the 4th quarter of the last Monday night game around 1:00 AM ET. If I had lost I would have been forced to give up Doug Martin or Demaryius Thomas and be forced to take back the owner’s worst player at the same position. Luckily Owen Daniels pulled out a last minute win for my team and now I have a shiny new LeSean McCoy to show for it. Just for week 1 edge of your seat purposes I say you have to try this format next year. It’s like being in a fantasy championship every week.
IDP Leagues
I like IDP leagues for the sheer fact that it makes you pay attention to the NFL as a whole. You need to keep track of defensive players just as much as offensive players. I usually participate in at least two IDP leagues a year and prefer leagues where you start up to five defensive players. These leagues are usually won by the people that understand football inside and out. I personally love seeing great defensive players being put up on the board right next to their offensive counterparts.
2QB Leagues
I have been in 2QB leagues for years and have never been more excited about playing in these types of leagues. The position is so deep this year that you can finally forego drafting a quarterback in round two of a 12 team league and still get a very good QB2 in the third round. If you are sick of watching your friends wait until the 8th round of a draft and still getting a quality starting quarterback then I suggest you change your league to a 2QB league.
Auction Leagues
I’m not sure there is anything more fun than an auction draft. From purposely bidding up your friends as they chase their favorite players to watching yourself get stuck with a player you never wanted in the first place. The varied strategies are the best thing about auction drafts as teams can go the “studs and duds” route,”the wait and see what’s left” route or the slow and steady route. No where else can you start your draft off with Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson and then go out for a beer.
If you know of any other types of leagues please feel free to comment at the bottom and let me know so i can add it to my list.
Baltimore Ravens Vs. Denver Broncos
Manning looking to hit a receiver downfield.
Peyton Manning and the Broncos had been game planning for revenge since last season’s stunning playoff defeat to the Ravens. Manning’s rumored renewed power in his right arm was not noticeable, but his timing and accuracy didn’t seem to suffer. Peyton tied an NFL record with 7 touchdown passes and threw for over 450 yards. The Broncos backfield was once again fantasy wasteland as Montee Ball rarely saw the field and Knowshon Moreno looked like his agility was sapped by off season surgery. All of Peyton Manning’s targets looked like sure-fire Fantasy All-Stars as they racked up huge numbers. Even Eric Decker looked like a viable WR2 or flex in all formats as he had the targets, but failed to capitalize on his opportunities. Julius Thomas showed that he was a high upside tight end 2 on draft days and will now be a start/sit headache for fantasy GMs. If he is on your waiver wire you have to get him where you can, I may even blow my FAAB budget to get a young Antonio Gates clone.
The Ravens looked as thin at wide receiver as we thought. Marlon Brown was forced to come into the lineup as Jacoby Jones was injured on a fair catch attempt. I think Brown will have value in deeper leagues, but I’m not that high on him. Ray Rice took over as Joe Flacco’s security blanket in the passing game, but failed to get the ground game going against a tough Denver run defense. Bernard Pierce found no running room, but did see the field a lot and looks to be a big part of the Ravens running game plans. Torrey Smith looked like he was in for a big night early, but once again disapeared for long parts of the game and will once again be a boom or bust fantasy option.
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Patriots Vs. Bills
EJ Manuel looked calm and collected as he kept the game close and didn’t make the big mistakes most rookies seem to make against the Patriots. CJ Spiller had a nightmare start to the season as Fred Jackson out rushed him. Stevie Johnson’s fantasy value will still be limited because of the Bills conservative approach with a rookie QB.
Tom Brady was not his surgical self, but still pulled out a win. Brady was still able to feature an injured Amendola, but failed to get Zach Sudfeld involved. The Patriots other fast rising UFA fantasy commodity Kenbrell Thompkins looked nervous in his first regular season action as he and Tom Brady couldn’t hook up regularly. Julian Edelman was the surprise fantasy star as he caught two touchdowns from Brady and looks to be a big fantasy free agent pick up in week 1. Stevan Ridley couldn’t have started the season worse as he was benched after once again fumbling away a golden opportunity for fantasy points. Shane Vereen capitalized on his chance and was the only running back on Sunday to rush for over 100 yards. Unfortunately Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and will be sidelined through week 11.
Buccaneers Vs. Jets
Josh Freeman looked like a man who will be holding a clipboard later in the season for most of the game. He looked to lead the Bucs on a game winning drive, but a last minute penalty helped the Jets to a win. Doug Martin was bottled up for most of the day, but still managed a touchdown. V-Jax was as dominant as advertised as he exploded for a huge yardage day, but was caught from behind by a linebacker on a play which would have seen him score a big touchdown. Mike Williams found the endzone once again and still looks like a solid fantasy wide receiver.
Josh Smith looked almost as solid as EJ Manuel as he became an instant Jet legend with a big comeback win. Jeremy Kurley suffered a concussion and Stephen Hill saw a decent amount of targets in week 1. Santonio Holmes was non existent and will be limited by his foot injury early on. The most surprising thing to come from this game was the reemergence of Kellen Winslow at the tight end position. I’m sure he got into his young quarter back’s ear and will try and build a relationship similar to the way a young Freeman leaned on a healthier version of Winslow.
Bengals Vs. Bears
Andy Dalton had a few costly turnovers, but was able to get the ball to AJ Green almost at will in tough away matchup. AJ Green proved to be one of the top 3 wide receivers in the league as he torched the Bears for a huge day. The Bengals tight ends were heavily involved as both Eifert and Gresham had 5 receptions. Muhamed Sanu had tough day as he had a fumble that was a big reason that the Bengals lost. The lawfirm of Benjarvis green-Ellis once again plodded to very little yardage, but managed to get into the endzone. Giovani Bernard did not get enough touches in week one to be fantasy factor, and has me leaning to a wait and see for his flex value.
Jay Cutler put up representative numbers, but surprisingly managed to not get sacked. Matt Forte didn’t find a lot of running room, but still managed a short yardage touchdown. Brandon Marshall did not see huge target numbers, but was still a fantasy star as he topped 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Alshon Jeffrey did not have a huge day, but I would snatch him up if an owner overreacts and puts him on the waiver wire. Martellus Bennett managed to get in the endzone and join in the week 1 fantasy tight end scoring bonanza.
Browns Vs. Dolphins
Brandon Weeden was a turn over machine early on in this matchup and Trent Richardson owners will hope this doesn’t become the norm. Richardson was a non-factor as the Browns were forced to play catchup. With Josh Gordon suspended the Browns’ wide receivers proved to be not fantasy relevant. Many fantasy GMs were happy to see Jordan Cameron be the number 1 target for Weeden week 1 as he was one of the fastest rising players during fantasy draft season. Cameron has solidified his TE1 status with his strong performance.
Ryan Tannehill won the game and took what the Browns gave him during the game. His numbers didn’t prove Warren Sapp’s preseason prediction of Tannehill passing Dan Marino’s records to be possible. (not like we didn’t see that coming.) Brian Hartline was the beneficiary of soft coverage and put up huge week 1 numbers and even managed to get in the endzone. With teams paying close attention to Mike Wallace, Hartline can have a very nice season. Pick him up if you need help at your flex position or WR4. Brandon Gibson had a nice day in deeper PPR leagues as he outpaced the man he replace Devone Bess with 7 receptions and 77 yards. Mike Wallace was erased for much of the day by Joe Haden and was visibly frustrated after the game. Lamar Miller had a nightmare start to the season as he just couldn’t get going against a tough Browns run defense.
Vikings Vs. Lions
Christian Ponder is not an NFL quarterback. He only plays one on Sundays. Ponder struggled and will severely affect any fantasy usefulness from Kyle Rudolph and Greg Jennings. Ponder managed to hit Jerome Simpson deep a few times and Simpson ended up having a very nice day(7 receptions 140 yards) as a result. Adrian Peterson started the season where he left off as he broke a 78 yard touchdown run on his very first carry. He was frustrated for the rest of the day in the yardage department, but still managed two more touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford is going to throw the ball a ton this year. He also really likes his new toy in Reggie Bush. Bush had a huge week 1, but as expected did not come out unscathed. Bush pulled a groin muscle and dislocated a thumb, but played through both injuries to put up a monster fantasy day. Bush’s back up Joique Bell vultured two rushing touchdowns and had a nice day receiving as well. Calvin Johnson also started 2013 where he left off in 2012 as he once again had trouble securing touchdowns. Huge case of deja vu with Megatron’s week 1 performance, but I wouldn’t be too worried about it. Brandon Pettigrew had a very surprising quiet day and was outpaced by Joseph Fauria. Ryan Broyles injured knees had Nate Burleson show up in the boxscore, but I wouldn’t pay much attention to him.
Falcons Vs. Saints
The Falcons didn’t let anyone in on the secret that Roddy White was essentially going to be a decoy in week 1. White’s injured ankle killed a lot of fantasy owners out of the gate and he should be a wait and see for week 2. Julio Jones looked good in his chance to take over as the WR1 in Atlanta. It may actually be a changing of the guard in Atlanta, even if it’s due to injury and not effectiveness. Tony Gonzalez found the endzone and Harry Douglas managed to top 90 yards from the slot. Matt Ryan topped 300 yards, but failed to win the game on a last minute drive. Steven Jackson could have had a huge week, but did not receive the touches necessary to wear down the defense.
Drew Brees topped 350 yards and used all of his weapons. Mark Ingram was once again, well, Mark Ingram. His production and play disappointed. The only running back you can count on in New Orleans is Darren Sproles, especially in PPR leagues. His late 35 yard reception put a smile on many owners’ faces. Lance Moore had a surprisingly quiet day. Kenny Stills had a nice game, mostly because of one long catch and run. Colston and Graham found the endzone and all is right in the fantasy football world.
Raiders Vs. Colts
Terrelle Pryor is not a good NFL quarterback, but that doesn’t matter in fantasy football. He managed to rush for over 100 yards and was a top 10 fantasy QB even though he is very limited in the passing game. The Raiders lack of talent and depth along the offensive line made Pryor and this new running offense the only option. Darren McFadden managed to score a touchdown and almost had a nice touchdown catch if he could have gotten his feet down. Both Raider wide receivers have no better than WR5 value even after catching touchdown passes.
Andrew Luck once again managed to run for a touchdown and may put up more than Aaron Rodgers bonus running numbers this season. Luck once again locked in on Reggie Wayne as they managed to hook up for a touchdown. TY Hilton was a fast riser during drafts, but managed to have a disappointing week 1. Vick Ballard had the Lion’s share of touches in the backfield, but did not do anything to think that he can hold off Ahmad Bradshaw once the Ex-Giant is healthy. Even though Allen managed a touchdown catch I would still stay away from starting a Colts TE until they show they can produce TE1 numbers.
Titans Vs. Steelers
Jake Locker and the Titans offense were far from spectacular. Chris Johnson got 25 carries, but failed to break any long runs and finished with pedestrian numbers. Locker’s lack of accuracy will always be an issue as trusting any Titans receivers going forward will be hard.
Ben Roethlisberger had a nightmare start to the season. His starting runningback fumbled twice. His only quality offensive lineman was lost for the season with a knee injury and he wasn’t able to make any of his normal Big Ben big plays. The lack of talent along the offensive line will keep all of the Steelers off my must start list for a while. I had expected a big day from Antonio Brown, but obviously that didn’t happen. He is still a flex option going forward, but He isn’t a WR2 until they can prove they can throw the ball.
Seahawks Vs. Panthers
Russell Wilson compiled a nice passing day, but his penchant for throwing to everyone wearing a Seahawks jersey makes starting any of his receivers iffy. Marshawn Lynch had a tough time finding running room a against a revamped Panthers front and preseason phenom Christine Michael failed to see the field.
Cam Newton had a slow start to the season as was expected against a stingy Seahawks defense. Steve Smith managed to get in the endzone on a short crossing patterna dn greg Olsen was once again the number two target in Carolina. DeAngelo Williams had a nice start to the game, but failed to reach pay dirt.
Chiefs Vs. Jaguars
Alex Smith did what Alex Smith does. He threw the ball short and managed the offense. His presence kills Dwayne Bowe’s value, but he is going to win games for the Chiefs. Jamal Charles looked good early as he was involved in the passing game and scored a touch down rushing. He wasn’t needed late and was taken out before he could have a huge day.
Blaine Gabbert was injured and I’m pretty sure Cecil Shorts isn’t too upset about it. Shorts was able to get a reception until Chad Henne came on in relief and got Shorts on the score sheet. Maurice Jones-Drew had a rough day as he just couldn’t get going. The Chiefs are an underrated defense and hopefully MJD will get it going next week. This offense desperately needs solid quarterback play to have their players be fantasy relevant. Justin Blackmon is also sorely missed.
Cardinals Vs. Rams
Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians have saved Larry Fitzgerald from the fantasy football abyss. Palmer was able to get the ball to Fitzgerald and find Michael Floyd deep early on in the game. Andre Roberts was able to put up nice numbers as Palmer fed him late in the game. Rashard Mendenhall looked okay early on, but was in a surprising time-share with Alfonso Smith. Smith didn’t do anything to scare Mendenhall owners, but I would rather see Mendenhall get the Lion’s share of touches to make him flex worthy.
Sam Bradford was able to finally show that he can be fantasy relevant as he found his new favorite target Jared Cook for two touchdowns. Chris Givens was bottled up and Tavon Austin failed to provide any explosive plays. Daryl Richardson failed to break out in his first week as the undisputed starter in St. Louis. With Isiah Pead coming back from suspension week 2 Richardson will still see the most touches, but will be a flex play more than a RB2 option. Hopefully week 2 will see him break out for the Rams and fantasy owners.
Packers Vs. 49ers
Aaron Rodgers was once again dominant as he carved up the 49ers for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jordy Nelson was a popular wide receiver to bench because of a bad matchup, but proved he is WR1 material every week. James Jones failed to make a catch and showed inconsistent hands again. Jermichael Finley had a very nice day, but once a gain made a big blunder by dropping a pass that turned into an interception. Randall Cobb had a big day and looks like he could exceed my expectations going forward. I felt like he was overdrafted, but he looked like his value may have been just about right. Eddie Lacy had a costly fumble, but managed to bounce back with a nice short yardage touchdown.
Colin Kaepernick was unbelievable in week one. He threw the ball for over 400 yards against a stunned Packers defense. While many thought he would once again rush the ball at will again against the Packers the 49ers reversed course and opened up the passing playbook. The beat writers in San Francisco had said that Kaepernick had a great rapport with both Boldin and Davis at practice and if week 1 results are any indication they will all be monsters going forward. If Kyle Williams would have been able to come down with a few balls Kaepernick may have topped 500 yards. Frank Gore managed to get in the endzone and didn’t find much running room otherwise. I still would use him as a flex because he will score plenty of touchdowns in this offense.
Giants Vs. Cowboys
Well the elephant in the room was the abortion that was David Wilson’s week one performance. He was picked in 31% of DraftStreet daily fantasy lineups, but put up negative points. They Giants turned to Brandon Jacobs on Tuesday to mentor the young running back and hopefully he will get out of the doghouse quick. Eli Manning was forced to play catchup and threw the ball for over 450 yards and four touchdowns. Victor Cruz had a monster day as his heel was not a problem on Sunday night. Hakeem Nicks managed to go over 100 yards and looks like he took it easy in the preseason. Rueben Randle was great best ball asset as he also topped the 100 yard mark. Brandon Myers had a lot of late action and scored a late touchdown to put his numbers into TE1 territory.
Tony Romo threw the ball early and often, but failed to make any big plays. He also failed to get Dez Bryant involved in the game and ultimately lost Bryant to a foot injury late in the game. Miles Austin looks to be a PPR asset as the Cowboys featured him as a possession receiver. DeMarco Murray had a decent game, but the Cowboys were once again a passing team first. If they get back to a more balanced offense I think he will have RB2 value going forward. Jason Witten was his usual dominant self and the reports from Dallas that he would see more redzone targets were accurate.
Eagles Vs. Redskins
LeSean McCoy owners should rejoice. 20 carries for 115 yards in the first half. WOW! Michael Vick was mistake free and Desean Jackson burned the Washington secondary for over 100 yards and a touchdown in the first half. Brent Celek had two long receptions, taking one to the endzone and looks to be a nice TE2 going forward. The Eagles took their foot off the gas in the second half and let the Redskins get back into the game. I love the Eagles going forward, but I did not like that Michael Vick decided to go head first for a rushing touchdown. If he keeps taking chances like that you can expect Nick Foles to see the field.
Robert Griffin III had trouble shaking off the rust in his first action since knee surgery. With Griffin and Morris turning the ball over early the Redkins were forced to watch as the Eagles put on a show in the first half. Griffin managed to top 300 yards chasing the Eagles lead, but Morris was not able to get going. Morris did manage a touchdown and even caught a screen pass to prove he may be more involved in the passing game. I was surprised Fred Davis didn’t have more targets and was even outproduced by rookie Jordan Reed. Leonard Hankerson outproduced Josh Morgan and looks to be in line for more playing time according to Rotoworld. Pierre Garcon was one of my big week one misses in daily leagues a he didn’t manage to put up WR1 numbers. I still like him going forward.
Texans Vs. Chargers
Arian Foster out touched Ben Tate, but looked to be the lesser back on multiple occasions. He had two big drops and failed to get in the endzone. Ben Tate did nothing to hurt his fantasy stock going forward and looks to be in line for more touches if Foster struggles. Andre Johnson was his usual dominant self as he ripped off big catch after big catch. Once again he was non existent in the redzone. Owen Daniels had a huge day as Matt Shaub was able to find his tight end twice for touchdowns. Matt Shaub put up huge numbers after the Texans fell behind 28-7 to the Chargers on the road. If Foster isn’t his dominant self I would expect Shaub to put up nice numbers. The rookie DeAndre Hopkins had a nice night and hopefully will benefit from teams having to double AJ going forward.
Philip Rivers was a popular pick for a bounce back season, and looked to be well on his way as he threw four touchdowns against a tough Texans defense. Then the inevitable happened as Rivers threw an interception at the exact worst moment in the game. Ryan Mathews had Twitter buzzing as he caught a wheel route for a touchdown on the first play on offense for the Chragers, but it became painfully obvious throughout the game that the Chargers are featuring a RBBC. With Ronnie Brown seeing the field in key situations Mathews and Woodhead’s value take a hit. Antonio Gates managed 2 receptions for 49 yards, but was blanketed in the redzone. Vincent Brown and Malcolm Floyd looked like WR4 options at best as slot receiver Eddie Royal exploded for two touchdowns.
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Fantasy drafts are finally behind us and now it’s time to put on our best managerial hats and make sure we don’t leave fantasy points on the bench. Nothing drives you more nuts then when you see a matchup that screams huge fantasy production, yet you don’t make the appropriate lineup changes. For example, a reader sent me a start/sit question that screamed matchup play. This particular reader needed advice on who to start as their third wide receiver for week 1 between Steve Smith and Lance Moore. Without looking at the schedule some might say, ” I drafted Steve Smith in the sixth round and Lance Moore in the ninth round, so I should obviously start Smith.” Wrong! Steve Smith is facing the Seattle Seahawks Defense and Lance Moore is playing at home on turf in an expected shootout against the Atlanta Falcons. It might be Moore’s best matchup of the season. Playing the matchups at your flex position or third wide receiver will win you a championship.
Eli Manning and Kevin Gilbride had to hit the film room to try and get handle on on what to expect from Monte Kiffin’s new 4-3 defense in Dallas. While Kiffin has been out of the NFL the last few years, his core defensive principals are still being used around the league. The key to beating Monte Kiffin’s best defenses was always taking what the defense was willing to give. Exploiting the areas between the deep safeties and linebackers and keeping the chains moving. The last thing you want to do against a Kiffin defense is to get into too many third and longs. I think Eli will be able to work the middle of the field with a combination of Victor Cruz and Brandon Myers and exploit Dallas’s weakness at the safety position. I have Eli as a borderline QB1 for week one and a definite start in 2QB leagues.
The New York Giants running game will be a little hard to predict out of the gate against the Dallas Cowboys this season. The reshuffled offensive line mixed with some question marks because of injuries further cloud the actual production that should be expected. If Henry Hynoski and David Baas were healthy Wilson may be a top 10 start against the Cowboys, but for now we have to temper our expectations just a bit. I would only keep Wilson on the bench this week if I had started a draft with three straight running backs, or if the league was a full point PPR league where Wilson was my third running back.
Victor Cruz is the best chess piece that Gilbride and Manning possess going against Dallas this week. His ability to threaten the entire middle of the field from settling in behind the linebackers to driving past safeties can make a defensive coordinator have nightmares. In a typical “Tampa Two” look the middle linebacker will have deep middle in certain situations and that could be a nightmare for Sean Lee as Victor Cruz blows by him. I have Cruz as one of the best wide receiver plays this week as long as his bruised heel cooperates.
Nicks is a bit of a conundrum. He is the guy that made Jerry Jones open up his wallet to sign Brandon Carr and draft Morris Claiborne, but is he still that guy? I have a feeling Hakeem is going to have a very good year this season, but I don’t think this is the ideal matchup for his skill set. If his quickness is there he could find the void between the corner and the safety by beating the Dallas corners at the line of scrimmage, but the odds are slightly against him. I still have him in the top 20 as far as matchups this week, but he is more of a flex play then WR2.
Brandon Myers and Manning didn’t exactly inspire confidence in the preseason, but the matchup in week 1 screams tight end production. Myers should be able to exploit the middle of the field and the flats to put up tight end 1 numbers after being almost invisible in the preseason. NumberFire has Brandon Myers as their number seven tight end for week 1 and I think that sounds about right after looking at the macthups.
While Randle is an important part of what the Giants offense there are too many other good wide receiver matchups around the league to think that Randle should be in anyone’s week 1 fantasy lineup. I like Randle’s long term outlook, but his immediate value is only in the deepest of leagues.
For any of your last minute Fantasy Football questions follow me on Twitter @Coachesser or message me by liking my Facebook Page CoachEsser’s Playbook. If you need start/sit advice fast go to my website www.coachesser.com and use my start/sit widget powered by NumberFire.
You don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone. While Cinderella’s early 90’s power ballad may have made me queasy 
at the time, truer words were truly never spoken. I had no idea how lucky I was that my buddy from age five had been our fantasy football league commissioner for all these years. He was truly unbiased and thoughtful in every situation. Whether it was rule changes, votes for new members, or controversial trades, he always put the integrity of the league first. Over these last 15 years, I now realize I have taken him for granted. I never knew how much he improved my quality of life until I started venturing out into new leagues recently.
I feel like all three major sports leagues in the U.S. could take some notes from my old commissioner. Roger 
Goodell with the NFL has put himself front and center in all things and only cares about his own legacy. Bud Selig has made MLB an old buddy-buddy league that is full of underhanded dealings and biased rulings. David Stern walks around believing that he made the NBA a must see league, even though it was the league that Magic, Bird and Jordan made. I’m not talking about Gary Bettman because, well this isn’t Canada. Is it?
I have joined a bunch of different leagues the last few years and found the commissioners have closely resembled at least one of the big three. In one league, rules were changed after the draft that clearly benefited the commissioner and his cronies. His Bud Selig impression was not appreciated and I was quickly a one and done league champ. The worst situation was when I joined a dynasty fantasy football league that was clearly run by a Roger Goodell clone. Every correspondence was rank with arrogance. The straw that broke the camel’s back was when he traded for Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant and gave up Eli Manning and Michael Turner. I died a little inside when I emailed the entire league to ask for some back up with my protests to this trade-rape, and found no backers. When I pressed one league member about why he didn’t protest the trade he said, “It wouldn’t matter if we protested, the commissioner has complete autonomy over the league and will beat down any challenges in the ranks.”
Situations and priorities change, and so does life. Three kids later, an ever growing workload, and free time that would only be envied by an indentured servant has made it impossible for me to take on the responsibility of being a league commissioner. I feel like I would be unbiased, fair, and decent, but alas I am not available for the job.
The ones that are available sadly don’t measure up. Think about it…who in their mid-thirties to early forties has
time to run fantasy leagues? Single guys in their thirties or forties have the time, but do we really want them in charge? They are probably single for a reason. They have either never had their stuff together long enough to impress a mate or have been found wanting by the opposite sex (or same sex) when given the chance. Whether they lied, cheated, or stole none of these traits make for a good commissioner. Ideally, you want your commissioner to be like the dad from Growing Pains, not Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons (Worst Commissioner Ever).
My real frustration comes from the laziness that has permeated some of these leagues. Instead of having an honest commissioner make fair decisions on trades, I have been forced to deal with league votes. How can a league vote ever be fair to a team in a playoff position? It’s like having ten angry jurors deciding your fate. Teams ahead of you have the bias of not wanting you to catch them. Teams below you want to catch up to you and will not be happy if you strengthen your squad. Then there is the team you are playing that week that has the ultimate bias.
Recently I made a trade that had to be put to a league vote. The GM that I was playing that week told me he was voting against the trade solely out of spite. The trade would have given me a little more power and he didn’t want me to make up a disadvantage in homeruns that week. I had to sit on my hands and hope everyone made a fair and unbiased decision. It was gut-wrenching, but it eventually passed. (P.S. Chris Davis hit a two-run homerun on Sunday for me to tie in homeruns and give me the RBI category)
So if you are reading this and feel you are a man among men, please step up to the plate and be a league commissioner. Fantasy leagues need you, I need you, and more importantly, America needs you!
This article also appears at www.FantasyJudgment.com as part of a weekly series called Coach Esser’s Diary.
The New York Giants have a great tradition at the running back position. From Joe Morris to Ahmad Bradshaw the position has been both solid on the field and in the world of fantasy football. Some Giants running backs stood taller among their peers than others. Morris was arguably the best fantasy football running back from 1985 to 1986 as he posted 280.8 points and 264.9 points during those two monster seasons, but measured up at only 5-foot-7. In 1985, Morris finished third in overall fantasy points at running back to brand names Marcus Allen and Roger Craig. In 1986 Morris was the last Giants running back to finish the season as the No. 1 fantasy running back as he scored more fantasy points than the likes of Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, and Curt Warner.
Bradshaw has been solid, but not spectacular during his tenure as injuries to his ankles and feet and a focus on running back by committee have hindered his overall numbers. This year the Giants backfield is in flux as Bradshaw will now be running the ball for the Indianapolis Colts and the two holdovers are relatively inexperienced.
David Wilson, the New York Giants’ first-round pick in 2012, has been given the first chance at being the starter, according to reports. Opportunity governs value as much as ability when it comes to fantasy football. There is no use debating if a player can rush for 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns if he is only going to get half the carries. With the departure of Bradshaw, Wilson’s stock can be seen as on the rise, while the presence of touchdown vulture Andre Brown must temper expectations. Wilson excites Giants’ fans as well as fantasy football pros with his breakaway speed and athletic prowess, but his reputation for fumbling and limited experience in the passing game are causes for concern. If he lives up to his C.J. Spiller comparisons fantasy football GMs who are lucky enough to own him will be doing back flips right along with him this year. If he is in a true time share without goal-line carries or ends up on the sidelines because of fumbles and poor pass protection than all of our excitement will be for naught.
Andre Brown is almost as green as Wilson despite being five years older. After being drafted in the fourth round out of N.C. State, Brown blew out his Achilles tendon during his first summer with the Giants. It has taken Brown a long time to stick on an NFL roster after his initial injury, but it looks like he found a home in New York. The Giants thought enough of him to bring him back into the fold on their Super Bowl run in 2011 and stood by him after he was suspended in the early part of 2012. Brown showed he can be an effective feature back when he was forced to carry the load against the Carolina Panther last season. He ran 20 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns when the Giants needed him the most. While he is not as explosive as he was in college, he is a better running back than when he came into the league. He shows good feet in the hole, while showing excellent vision. He also runs with a patient hard-nosed style that makes for a great compliment to the explosive Wilson.
The Giants have a nice recent history with using the running back by committee approach. Thunder and Lightning was coined when the Giants featured Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber during the 2000 season and continued all the way until 2011 when Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs took turns battering defenses. While Brown doesn’t roll in to defenses as hard Jacobs used to, Wilson is the fastest to man the Lightning part of the backfield since Barber. Running back by committee with two backs can be a scary thing to a fantasy GM, but it’s better than when the committee is split three ways as the Giants did in 2008 with Derrick Ward, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.
The Giants currently have a lot of unknowns behind this year’s version of Thunder and Lightning. Ryan Torain has never been able to make it through an NFL season healthy and Da’Rel Scott and Michael Cox are going to be battling it out on special teams to make the roster. The lack of an experienced proven commodity as a third running back is a concern as a fan of the Giants. As a fantasy GM I look at that as a plus for both Wilson and Brown. I expect the Giants to look for an experienced running back after teams make their cuts, but I don’t expect the Giants plans to change much unless Wilson or Brown don’t perform well in the preseason.
The biggest thing to happen to the Giants’ running backs fantasy potential so far in the preseason was when fullback Henry Hynoski went down to a knee injury. Without going into the numbers and really breaking down statistically how important Hynoski was to the Giants running backs last year, I think we can all agree that the Giants’ backs find a lot more running room when Hynoski is in the lineup. Hynoski is expected back around Week 1, but these recovery timetables are averages and not everyone recovers as quickly. The Giants checking in on the recently released Vonta Leach shows how much they believe that a dominant fullback is a key to their running game.
While Leach will surely sign with a team that has more cap room, the Giants will focus on getting Hynoski ready for the season and hope that Bear Pascoecan do his best Hynoski impression. The Giants offensive line was bolstered by this year’s first-round pick Justin Pugh and the re-signing of Will Beattyand Kevin Boothe in the offseason. The age and overall effectiveness is a little bit of a concern when discussing long-time Giants David Diehl and Chris Snee, but their knowledge and seasoning should be assets. David Baas has been an average center, but is not the dynamic run-blocker and athlete the best running teams seem to have manning the position. Baas and Snee’s injuries also made finding a versatile young lineman a priority in this year’s draft. With the addition of Pugh and the stability that Beatty and Boothe provide, I expect the Giants to be better up front this year.
Factoring in a healthy Hakeem Nicks, a motivated Victor Cruz, and an emerging Rueben Randle in the passing game, the Giants should be facing less defenses featuring eight men in the box. The lack of having that safety in the box should mean more easy yards for whoever is toting the rock for the Giants. With Mike Pope coaching up Brandon Myers and Adrien Robinsonthe Giants’ tight ends should be able to help in the running game.
The outlook for the running game is dependent on so many factors that banking on previous success is not the easiest thing to do. With coaching changes, free agency and injuries fantasy fortunes can change from minute to minute. Luckily the Giants reliance on a balanced offense and Kevin Gilbride’s continued presence bode well for any Giants’ running back’s fantasy potential. I expect big things from David Wilson in the future, but not necessarily this year. I think Brown will be a forced handcuff for most GMs who draft Wilson, but I don’t expect him to take over the featured back role. When teams feature a running back by committee the better running back doesn’t necessarily become the better fantasy back and this could be the case for the Giants this year. I have Wilson ranked as my 18th overall Fantasy running back in non-keeper, non PPR, and conventional scoring leagues as of right now while I have Brown down in the late 30s.
Wilson will be drafted anywhere from the low end of the third round to the fifth round in most 12-team conventional scoring leagues. Brown will be drafted as a handcuff after the 10th round based on all the information currently available. Brown may end up outscoring Wilson this year, but Wilson has way too much potential to not be looked at as RB2 material with upside. I personally don’t believe that you must draft a running back’s handcuff as it is a negative way to look at the fantasy draft. I only draft a handcuff if the value of the player’s potential is greater than the available players at the spot I am drafting him. If I don’t draft two running backs early and need to fill my RB2 spot in the fifth round I will be more than happy to come away with Wilson.
This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on Friday June 14th, 2013.
The perception of starting pitching depth on a fantasy baseball team is the same mirage that exists with respect to depth at running back in fantasy football leagues. You are always one pitch or one carry away from being in a bind. With pitchers, it could be age and frailty such as with Andy Pettitte and Jake Peavy. Or perhaps it is flawed mechanics that have caused your fantasy ace, Stephen Strasburg, to start drawing comparisons to Mark Prior. From forearm tightness to sore shoulders, fantasy GMs are constantly trying to avoid season-ending injuries to their starting pitchers. On the other hand, running backs are just a few fumbles or a lethal hit away from being relegated to the bench. The mere sight of your player on the week’s injury report will send many GM’s running to the waiver wire. In the end, GM’s who thought they had plenty of depth at the position realize how shallow their rosters really are.
Coming into this fantasy baseball season, the best advice I received was to grab as many quality starting pitchers as possible. Sure, draft the great position players early but make sure I stockpile as many arms as I could because you never know when injuries may occur. I heeded this advice throughout the season thus far and picked up additional quality starting pitching even though I thought I had sufficient depth at the position to start the year. I drafted Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Julio Teheran, Andy Pettitte, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren. I quickly dropped Hammel and Haren for Shelby Miller and Justin Masterson. I then dropped Pettitte for Patrick Corbin as I didn’t want another injury prone starter in my rotation.
We all knew Peavy was eventually going to be on the disabled list…we just didn’t know when. Drafting Peavy was the equivalent of drafting Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden in a fantasy football league. Doing either of these things requires you back them up with quality options. Peavy had been performing well up until his last two outings. I was relieved it was an injury (non-displaced rib fracture) and not ineffectiveness that caused his recent poor outings.
Well, the dreaded time has come for many fantasy owners including myself. While I lost Peavy to the DL, he was not alone. Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg and Brendon Morrow were also placed on the disabled list. Morrow’s DL stint is a blessing after the way he has pitched. But for Cueto, he just recently came back and started to look like his old self. However, Strasburg is the one that scares me the most. He was likely drafted very high and was counted on to 
perform at an almost Verlander/Kershaw level. That hasn’t happened up to date and now he is injured again. I’m pretty sure GM’s are cursing at themselves watching Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki tearing it up while Strasburg is on the mend.
I am happy to roll out my rotation week after week and try and weather this injury storm. I am reluctant to trade my pitching because this is what can happen. I may think I’m six deep at quality starters, but I’m always one pitch, batted ball, or slip in the shower away from combing the waiver wire.
This article was originally featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com
Patience is the name of the game when waiting for a top draft pick to play up to their potential. While MLB teams try to boost their prospects’ confidence with long stays in hitter-friendly minor league destinations or playing them in low pressure situations in the big leagues, fantasy GM’s are not afforded such luxuries. We do not have the ability to drop our struggling draft picks in the batting order or send them to the minors to work it out (hey Ike Davis, I’m talking to you). We can only banish them to our bench and hope they eventually play themselves back into our good graces.
A lot of GMs are demonstrating the patience of a two year old while waiting for their players to get back on track. I have seen last year’s NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey actually come across the waiver wire in one of my leagues. While Dickey’s WHIP is not what it was with the Mets last year (1.31 vs. 1.05), his strikeout rate has been getting better over his last few starts. I think the adjustments to switching leagues, as well as early season injuries, have gotten Dickey off to his rocky start. Who knew knuckleballers could suffer minor injuries that affect their statistics? If Dickey can cut down on the walks and stay healthy he can make it back to the top of a fantasy rotation.
Julio Teheran was every experts’ pick to be the next big thing coming out of spring training. While Matt Harvey and Shelby Miller have performed like fantasy studs to start the year Teheran has slowly built up a little steam. He showed poor command and little fantasy value as he started the year cold. He started the year with a whimper as he shelled by the lowly Cubs. He was able to escape without a loss thanks to the Upton brothers and Carlos Marmol, but his next few starts were not much better. He has slowly worked his way back to fantasy relevance ever since. His 9.00 ERA has come down to 3.99 and his record is a respectable 3-1. His 5.4/9 K rate and 1.35 WHIP show that he is not yet a fantasy star as many predicted, but if his current form continues he could be a nice pitcher to have on your roster (especially when he faces the offensively-challenged Mets and Marlins within the division).
Whenever I look at a surprise name on the waiver-wire I am reminded of a fantasy football all time blunder in one of my fantasy football leagues. The year was 2001 and everyone and their mother were looking for the next Terrell Davis to take them to the championship. Priest Holmes had moved from the world champion Baltimore Ravens to the Kansas City Chiefs and looked like he could be a nice RB2 if he was given a chance. After week two of the NFL season Holmes had a combined 51 yards rushing with zero touchdowns. A very good friend jettisoned him to the waiver-wire and the rest is history. Holmes rushed for over 1,500 yards with 600 yards receiving to go along with ten touchdowns. He went from a waiver-wire refugee to a fantasy football stud.
I refuse to be the next guy to drop a future fantasy MVP before the season even heats up. I saw my friend desperately try to make up for his big mistake, eventually trading for Holmes a few years later just so he could put that miss-step behind him. I will place Josh Hamilton and B.J. Upton right where they belong, sitting next to each other on my bench while I weather the storm with the Jason Kubel’s and Dominic Brown’s of the world. Just because your guys go through a cold streak or are at the top of Yahoo’s most dropped charts doesn’t mean you have to panic. Just try to be patient and think of Priest Holmes running into the end zone for someone else’s team.
This article was originally posted at www.FantasyJudgment.com
Is there anything more annoying than a terrible trade offer in one of your fantasy leagues? The only thing comparable would be voicemails on my cell phone. I avoid responding to both out of sheer principle.
One has become an epidemic since I last played fantasy baseball in the 1990’s. The other is a dinosaur that should be avoidable with all of the easier ways to say “hello” or to see how I am doing. Hasn’t anyone ever heard of even trades, email, text messages, Google chat, or even Facebook messenger?
Bad trade offers were much tougher to even attempt when everything was done face to face or over the phone. If someone offered me Edward Mujica for Troy Tulowitski in a bar, I could at least make them buy me a beer for having to listen to that nonsense. If they tried that over the phone, I could actually hang up and let them know how 
offended I was. But now sitting behind a keyboard, fantasy GMs have no conscience when sending out their offers.
I understand the impulse to ask for the ridiculous. You never know unless you ask. But the anonymity of the computer age has made leagues almost unbearable. A fellow GM offered me two waiver pick ups (who should still be on the waiver wire BTW) for my best starting pitcher. He then got offended when I didn’t answer back in a timely manner.
I’m sorry I didn’t know I was holding up his attempt at league domination by not responding to the crap currently in my inbox. I have even got the halfhearted messages explaining to me how this awful trade makes my team better. Really? A fourth closer for the number one fantasy shortstop is my ticket to a championship? Who knew? I guess all that work I do breaking down numbers and trying to make my team the best it can be is all for nothing. I should just have this guy put together my team and the league championship is all mine.
I could have instantly rejected the idiotic trade offer, but I chose to avoid it like the long-winded drunken catch-up voice mail from my old college buddy currently blinking away on my cell phone. I am keeping both for posterity. The next time I see someone from my league, I will whip open my phone and say “look at this!” Can you believe he actually tried that? Then we will try and one up each other with all the bad offer stories we have from our multiple leagues.
I guess it goes to show that there is a feeling out process when joining a new league. People don’t know each other all that well and feel like they need to try and see who the sucker is. I understand that we all have made terrible trades when we first started playing fantasy sports. Mine was trading Jerome Bettis for Reggie Rivers (the man who took over for Barry Sanders) when I was introduced to fantasy football. I have never forgiven myself and have never done business with that GM again. That was almost 15 years ago and it still stings like it was yesterday.
Luckily nowadays, newbies to fantasy sports are protected by league votes and impartial commissioners. If both are in cahoots, you can even go to an arbitrator to try and reach a resolution. I know if there was a problem in my league we would immediately go to fantasyjudgment.com and let someone outside of the situation rule on a league controversy.
You didn’t have that back in 1999. All you could do was complain to an uncaring bartender at your local watering 
hole and learn from your mistakes. I don’t know which I prefer; the old face to face handshake deals or the faceless emails. Both have their pro’s and con’s, but I think I miss sealing a trade over a nice tall Yuengling Lager.
