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Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

Fantasy Football: Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

The hangover from an exciting week one in Fantasy Football is hitting me like a flying kick from Antonio Brown.  The surprises (Allen Hurns and Justin Forsett), the disappointments (Jamaal Charles and Dez Bryant), and of course the injuries (Eddie Lacy, Jordan Reed, Ben Tate, Doug Martin, Jordan Cameron and Alshon Jeffrey) all made for a mentally exhausting Sunday.  As they say, a little hair of the dog is good for what ails you and tonight we get a double shot of Monday Night Football to cure the hangover.  In case you didn’t get enough intrigue this off season we have two questionable fantasy starters in Antonio Gates and Andre Ellington.  I would look for Gates to play limited snaps, but I’m not as optimistic on Ellington and his ailing foot.  (Weird, because usually it’s Gates’s foot that we would have been griping about.)

chris ivory

With the breaking news that Ray Rice has been suspended indefinitely and his contract has been terminated by the Baltimore Ravens (Finally), we have to discuss their current backfield options.

Bernard Pierce – Pierce got the start after recovering from a concussion he suffered in the preseason, but he picked up right where he left off last season.  He plodded his way to 17 yards on six carries and was non-existent in the passing game.  The Ravens have a lot of trouble running to their left side and Pierce is so one dimensional right now that teams can bottle him up.  He’s still a hold for me because of the opportunity here, but I think you will be kicking yourself for not taking Knowshon Moreno on draft day instead of Pierce.

Justin Forsett– Forsett was signed to be Ray Rice passing game insurance and now the Ravens are forced to make due after the revelations of the TMZ video.  Forsett is a journeyman change of pace back that has a nice set of hands and is surprising when he is given a chance to carry the ball.  Forsett ran for 71 yards on 12 carries (again his production was better to the right side with 7 carries for 44 yards and one TD) and caught five passes for 14 yards.  Forsett looks to be the immediate beneficiary of the Rice departure, by solidifying his role and because the Ravens may be forced to pass  the ball in order to move it.

Lorenzo Taliaferro-Taliaferro is a favorite of many of the dynasty fantasy football minds that I talk to because he is the type of running back who can get what’s blocked and push a pile when needed.  The ability to fall forward and make oneself small when entering the hole is very important when the size of the holes aren’t what they used to be.  Taliaferro is worth a stash in deep leagues and should see his number called before too long.

Terrance West-You might be wondering why Terrance West would be on a waiver wire article after all the hype in the preseason, but believe it or not he’s available in a lot of 10 team leagues.  He’s 80% owned on ESPN and that climbed 10% in the last day.  Ben Tate was always an injury concern, and West is the direct beneficiary.  The 100 yard day will make him pretty expensive and the questionable status of Tate makes the price a little murky, but I would be in buy mode with West.

Isaiah Crowell– Crowell was not in the original game plan, but he was called upon when Tate went down with a knee injury.  Crowell showed why many draft pundits wanted to see him get a shot in the late rounds as he rushed five times for 32 yards and two touchdowns.  The emergence of Crowell really hurts the prospects for Tate, even when he’s healthy because this backfield could become a true RBBC situation. I would stash Crowell in very deep leagues, such as 16 team leagues or 14 team leagues.

Andrew Hawkins– Hawkins was specifically targeted by the Cleveland Browns organization during free agency and they did something a little unorthadox by signing him to a restricted free agent offer sheet.  Hawkins has always had the reputation of being almost uncoverable in the slot, but he never got the type of targets or snaps that he needed in Cincy.  On Sunday in Pittsburgh it was obvious that he is the first or second option on most passing plays as he caught eight passes on nine targets for 87 yards with 30 of those yards in YAC.  Hawkins is a must roster in full PPR leagues and is even rosterable in .5 PPR 10 team leagues.  His 11% ownership on ESPN is bound to swell.

Brian Quick– Quick is one of those guys that has frustrated many dynasty fantasy football players for years.  His immense upside has been hard to ignore, but his failure to emerge when surrounded by mediocre talent has been worthy of some hair pulling.  Sunday Quick led the Rams wide receiver corps in snaps at 48/70 and he dominated the targets as well.  He out targeted Kenny Britt 9 to 2 and caught seven of those targets for 99 yards while Britt was shut out.  Quick could go from a remember that name type of guy to a big time wide receiver three or four in 12 team fantasy leagues if he keeps this up.  I would take a flyer in almost all leagues and especially where I took a shot on Britt.

Benny Cunningham– Cunningham played more snaps than second round fantasy pick, Zac Stacy, but Stacy out touched Cunningham 12-9.  Cunningham showed well in the passing game as he secured four passes for 30 yards and he benefited by an early drop from Stacy.  The situation has truly become a RBBC and Cunningham benefits from the Rams struggles as he will be used in the passing game more, he already outsnapped Stacy 21-13 in the opening game.  Take a shot on Cunningham in full PPR, especially if you went Zero-RB.  He could be a poor man’s Woodhead if this continues.

Allen Hurns– Talk about a breakout performance by a guy that wasn’t even expected to make the team.  The Jaguars jumped all over the Eagles early as Hurns exploded for four receptions for 110 yards and two touch downs.  Hurns was a surprise starter as Cecil Shorts III once again came up lame.  Hurns probably wouldn’t have even been in line to play if Allen Robinson hadn’t been injured in training camp.  All that is in the past as Hurns has done nothing but impress since he was given a chance.  I’m not running out to grab Hurns, because of the crowded WR corps, but I wouldn’t blame you if you did.  He is big and fast and it will be hard to keep him off the field after this performance.  He is a must roster in all leagues larger than 14 teams and could be a sneak add in 12 teamers.

Bobby Rainey– Rainey is the direct back up to Doug Martin and Martin suffered a leg injury on Sunday.  The Tampa Bay Offensive Line struggled on Sunday, but most O-lines will against that Carolina front.  Rainey is a pin ball in the passing game and is much stronger than he looks, when he is asked to carry the ball.  I like Rainey in leagues where I went Zero-Rb or where i suffered some injuries.  Mike James wasn’t fully recovered from a preseason injury on Sunday and could make this a RBBC, but that’s okay.  I want the PPR side of this equation anyway.

Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor–  Tonight’s game and the coming days are going to be keys to how we treat the situation in Arizona.  I tend to think Ellington is more injured than what the Cardinals are letting on and think Dwyer is the guy to pick up, especially in standard leagues.  If Ellington misses major time Dwyer would be no better than a bye week fill-in, but you never know if the light finally comes on for the former Steeler.

Chris Ivory– I’m not sure why Ivory is available on the wire, but he should be scooped up as soon as possible.  Ivory is the perfect compliment to Chis Johnson for the Jets and your fantasy team will benefit from a fresh ivory running at tired defenders.  Ivory was one of the key running backs in my Zero-RB draft approach and he also fell further in drafts as the season approached.  The reasons for his fall were obvious.  He has a long history of not being able to stay healthy and has a legitimate fantasy running back playing with him.  Ivory was listed as the co-starter on Sunday and was outsnapped by Johnson 35-28.  Ivory broke a long touchdown run to make his day look better on paper than what it really was, but he did run hard on his other carries.  If Geno Smith can take care of the ball Ivory should be a nice flex option, especially in standard leagues.

All stats courtesy of PFF-ProFootballFocus.com

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Episode 021: Fantasy Football Sigmund Bloom

Episode 021: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Tight End Draft Strategy

Featuring: Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) FootballGuys.comaudible_logo_157

About My Guest:  Sigmund Bloom is a Co-owner/Partner, , Former NFL Draft lead writer for Bleacher Report, Fantasy Brain Advisory Board Member.  For a more detailed, slightly dated Bio you can go Here.

Episode Summary:  Sig and I try to sell you on the idea of drafting Jimmy Graham and/or Rob Gronkowski in the first two rounds of your fantasy football drafts.  We also discuss fantasy football draft strategy overall as well as why we target high ceiling tight end instead of wasting middle round picks on presumably safer tight ends.

Episode Rundown:

  • Intro
  • We get to know Sigmund Bloom a little.
  • Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are discussed at length.
  • Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron and their potential to join the elite are discussed.
  • We discuss the fact that the tight ends regularly ranked from five to ten don’t posses the upside of the guys ranked after them.  Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, and Dennis Pitta are discussed.
  • We talk about the break out potential of Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph and Dwayne Allen.
  • We discuss Eric Ebron for a split second.
  • The Coach’s Office: Brought to you by Revolabels.com.RevoLabels.com
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 021:  I want to thank Sigmund Bloom for taking some time out of his busy late August schedule to discuss the tight end position in fantasy football.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

Jimmy Graham in the 2nd or Bust!

First of all I am not saying that you definitely have to take Jimmy Graham in the 2nd round of Fantasy Football drafts, but if he is available at pick 20 overall then it’s a slam dunk pick.  I’m talking Dr. J  posterizing Michael Cooper type of pick. (What, you don’t know who Dr. J is? Fine, Blake Griffin over Kendrick Perkins.)  Getting a tight end that’s head and shoulders above all the others is awesome, but getting one that could put up wide receiver 1 type numbers is a huge bonus.  What type of numbers are we talking?  Well some fantasy pundits think Jimmy Graham can get to 100+ catches with 1500 yards and 15 TDS.  Those numbers are ridiculous by normal tight end standards, but only sound outlandish.  In 2011 Graham had 111 catches, 1468 yards and 14 TDs and he had room to grow.

Jimmy Graham

Crazy Numbers

Jimmy Graham’s 2011 TE numbers Compared to Last year’s Highest scoring WRs

Jimmy Graham scored 341.8 fantasy points in 2011

Calvin Johnson scored 348.4 total fantasy points in 2012

Brandon Marshall scored 334.8 fantasy points in 2012

Andre Johnson scored 323.5 fantasy points in 2012

Yeah, so when you’re faced with taking Graham or Demaryius Thomas or Julio Jones just look at those numbers.  When healthy Jimmy Graham will outscore every wide receiver in the league not named Megatron and plays a position where there is precipitous drop off after he is drafted.  I’m not condoning taking him in the first round like some other guys are, but I definitely see their point.  I just don’t like the way my team looks after taking Jimmy graham in the first round.  My running backs end up being either a year away from social security or rookies that are a complete mystery.

I’m much more comfortable taking a running back or Calvin Johnson in the first round of a draft.  I tend to like how my team looks on paper after the draft and it helps me sleep at night.  When I go running back in the first round I feel like there is an opportunity  to take Jimmy Graham in the second round because I already have that security blanket.  Just call me Linus hanging onto C. J. Spiller with all my might.  I will take Jimmy Graham before almost every receiver after Calvin Johnson.  The only one that gives me pause is Dez Bryant because of his Megatron-lite like qualities.

If I don’t get Graham in the second round you can count on me putting the tight end blinders on until the 10th round.  10th round, really?  Yep, I will only look at tight ends if there is a tremendous value.  I will contemplate Gronk at the bottom of the 4th round if my top 14 WRs have all been taken.  I will look at Jason Witten in the middle of the 5th if I’m not happy with what’s there at runningback or wide-receiver.  Almost every time they haven’t made it to where I would be willing to pick them.  So on the blinders go until the 10th.

The 9th round is usually the toughest to hold off because the ADP usually is pushing Greg Olsen or Jared Cook, but I can always find a wide receiver or a high upside back up running back to take.  I do like Olsen because he is legitimately the number 2 passing target in Carolina, but there are similar tight ends available much later.  Jared Cook is said to be the new slot favorite of Sam Bradford, but I have heard his virtues sung from many a Titans training camp only to have a giant hole on my roster.

Owen Daniels

the 10th round is where I start to survey the tight end landscape and usually to my surprise some very decent tight ends have fallen.  Guys like Jermichael Finley, Owen Daniels, and Martellus Bennett are usually available in the 10th round and you can look at other owners roster dept to plan your course of attack.  I usually take Bennett out of the equation as I have never been a fan of his sloppy route running, but I do like the huge chunks of yardage Owen Daniels rips off in the Texans play action passing game.  If Daniels isn’t on the board I have to back to Jermichael Finley once again.

Spilled Coffee

The guy has burned me more times than Dunkin Donuts coffee, but I will still go back for more. Finley’s impending free agency and his age (only 26) make for a great opportunity for him to cash in big time if he has a huge year.  He has the talent, but he is only the fourth option in the Packers’ vaunted passing offense.  It’s better now that Greg Jennings has moved on to Minnesota, but I would still be more comfortable with Daniels because of his position in the pecking order in Houston.

Let’s say I miss out on all those guys in the 10th round.  Should I panic?  Heck no!  I still have options.  Jordan Cameron of the Browns becomes my new tight end obsession.  I will him to come to me in the 11th or 12 rounds.  It’s just that simple.  I wish for it and he appears.  The power of positive thinking! (or some bullshit) Again if there is another sneaky GM just in front of me who happens to steal him from me I turn my sites to some guys that were once considered tight end 1 material.  I start to go after Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis and Dustin Keller like there’s no tomorrow. And usually there isn’t a tomorrow because I am doing this at the very end of drafts.(Note:Dustin Keller suffered a career threatening knee injury last night.)

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my affections for Tyler Eifert and Zach Sudfeld.  Two huge targets that are going to be a big part of their passing games.  I love to pair them with a seasoned veteran as a high upside TE2.

Looking up and having Brandon Pettigrew as my starting tight end might not feel very good, but it’s a lot more comforting than having Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray as my RB1!  Take it from me you will sleep better at night waiting on a tight end than drafting anyone, but Jimmy Graham in the early rounds.

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