Jose Valverde – The Fantasy Sports Coach

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Waiver Watch: Pitchers For Week 1

Starting Pitchers:

James Paxton: The flame thrower from Seattle started out of the gates fast. The big thing with Paxton is you’ll get a nice bump in strikeouts and strikeouts are as hard as homers to find and there’s nothing like picking up a nice supply week 1 of the Fantasy Baseball season. Jump on while you can and look at my Mariners’ article for the reasons why I love this team.

Scott Kazmir: Fantasy Baseball owners were not believing that Kazmir could do it again. The funny thing is people drafted Ubaldo Jimenez even though he signed with the Orioles to pitch in a hitter’s park in a nightmare of a division, but wouldn’t touch Kazmir in Oakland. I wasn’t going to overpay for Kazmir in drafts, but I did take him pretty late where I could and picked him up off the waiver wire where he went undrafted because he was just too good to be sitting there. He’s available in a lot of 12 team leagues and that just shouldn’t be the case. Go grab him and hope he holds up physically.

Jenrry Mejia: Mejia can pitch. He’s a lot like Johnny Cueto and looks like a lesser version of Pedro Martinez. Think…Pedro towards the end of his career. He’ll throw a hook in any count and spot a fastball that only runs 90MPH, but looks 97 after his off speed pitches. He would have been a lot of analysts favorite sleeper if he had won the 5th starter job for the Mets earlier in Spring Training. Don’t expect big K numbers, but he’ll help your ERA and WHIP.

Erasmo Ramirez: The Eraser is a personal favorite of mine, but not because I think he’s going to be a top 30 starter or anything. It’s just the way he pitches. He spots his fastball and puts a little on and takes a little off all while having a very good change up. I think his ceiling is Kuroda-esque.

Jake Odorizzi: I have no doubt that Odorizzi is going to have a big impact on many fantasy teams this season. I think he has the ability to pitch well enough to have the Rays think twice about giving Hellickson back his rotation spot and he could keep his spot if David Price is moved before the trade deadline. Odorizzi is one of these young starters that actually found a change up that works early in his career. If he can continue to hone that change up he can help you win your league.

Nate Eovaldi: Eovaldi is an underrated commodity in fantasy baseball right now. The Marlins are an up and coming team (that is currently playing above their talent level on offense) that should help Eovaldi continue to build on his skills. He is an injury concern and is known as a one-pitch pitcher, but he has tried to work in a league average change up that just might make his hard sinker look even harder.

Closers:

Before I start, I know that many of you have had these guys picked up already in your leagues. These lists are mainly for Fantasy Baseball GM’s that do weekly waivers or Faab.

Sergio Santos: Santos is one fill-in closer that I would actually target. There is no guarantee that Casey Janssen will make it back quickly and even if he does, Santos may have already nailed down the closer’s role. Of the injury fill-ins he’s my top guy.

Jose Valverde: I was lucky enough to watch a lot of the Mets’ spring training (wait did I just say I was lucky to watch that?, Oh never mind.) and it was clearly visible that there was something wrong with Bobby Parnell. His velocity was way down and he had no command. Luckily for the Mets they had given Valverde a shot to make the team and now it looks like he may be the closer for the rest of the year. (I know that Parnell may try to rehab, but I have my doubts that it will work.) The Mets have some decent starters (Gee, Wheeler, and Mejia) and not much offense so there should be some opportunity for Valverde to get some saves.

Francisco Rodriguez: K-Rod is back in the closer’s spotlight thanks to Jim Henderson being out of sorts. The Brewers strongly hinted that the job will be Henderson’s if and when he gets his stuff together. Personally I would stay away if I could, but if your league weighs saves heavily then you could do worse than K-Rod.

Josh Fields: Bo Porter, Houston Astros Manager, is going with the company line that his relievers just get outs when called upon. I think Fields will get the bulk of the early opportunities and if he pitches the way he did the other night when he nailed down his first save against the Yankees, he may just shift the company stance.

Matt Lindstrom/Nate Jones: An injury to Jones slowed hi this spring and it gave Matt Lindstrom the chance to win the White Sox closer’s job out of Spring Training. Both have struggled so far, but I think it will eventually be Jones that wins the job. For now I would stay away unless I had unlimited DL spots and then I would take a chance on Jones since he’s currently on the DL for a Glute problem.

Jonathan Broxton: Broxton looks to be the closer in Cincinnati until Aroldis Chapman is fully recovered. Broxton should be coming off the DL some time next week and Hoover has pitched himself out of the temporary closer situation. The Reds have a very good rotation that could lead to a bunch of opportunities for Broxton in the short term.

***Check Back Tomorrow For Position Players***

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball. I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about. I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised. Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year. My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria. Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte. My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy. But my closers have been a mixed bag. Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame. I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire. In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester. I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft. Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base. I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two. I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since. That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft. I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes. I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft. Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot. He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed). I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Being honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses. Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results. Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression. I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded. Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Weeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day. Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps. I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game. I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire. I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman. After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out. Right? Right???

The Pull of the Waiver Wire

The call of the waiver wire is as irresistible as a Siren calling me towards a rocky shore. I cannot help but peek constantly at all of the unwanted players that could be the key to a championship season. The songs are full of homeruns and stolen bases, but when you get up close you realize they are actually strikeouts and hitless nights. Unwanted relievers that look like save opportunities are actually WHIP and ERA killers dressed as shaky closers.

While it has been a long time since I have visited the baseball version of this island, my years of fantasy football have prepared me to navigate these rough waters. Some early season struggles of mid-round picks may send some GMs to dispatch their weak link early. Meanwhile, it can be a great place to buy low for the knowledgeable GM.

Some names that recently hit the waiver wire in my head-to-head league include late round sleepers, solid bench players, and even a former MVP. These players include Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner, and Justin Morneau. None of these players are going to make or break a fantasy team, but I had to pinch myself to see if this was a waiver wire reality or a free agent fantasy.

Both real and fantasy baseball pundits have repeatedly proclaimed that “Moustakas is going to hit.” Maybe so. But for now I would rather hold the fort down with guys like Chris Johnson and Jason Donaldson until Moustakas figures it out…on my bench. Brett Gardner was supposed to fill your stolen base quota, but instead he has opened the season like he was stuck in second gear. If he’s not stealing now, he will be later in the year. Don’t let another GM reap the benefits of your quick trigger finger.

Kyle Seager has way too much upside to put on the waiver wire, even if he is batting against the wind. Seager is someone you should hold on to, especially since he is eligible at second base in some leagues. Even with his recent hot streak, his batting average hasn’t surpassed .250 which is demonstrative of how poorly he started the season. Finally, I was quite surprised to see 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau on the waiver wire. Granted, if he is not hitting for power then he can possibly drag your team down in several roto categories. But he appears healthy and is a strong candidate to be traded at some point during the season. He would be worth your while to simply stash on your bench until he gets hot later in the year.

Moving on to the pitchers, many big names have surprisingly found their way to the waiver wire after failing to quickly rekindle their past glory. Dan Haren and Josh Johnson are two prime examples as GM’s might begin to hit their ejector seat buttons. (Chad Billingsley was originally on this list before it was revealed he required Tommy John surgery). Haren has been very shaky after a terrible 2012 season,and I see him as surplus to requirements in almost every format. Johnson is one of the most injury-prone pitchers in baseball, and is playing in a park that is not very friendly to sinker-ball pitchers. He got off to a very poor start in 2013, but he can still be a fantasy asset and is playing for a contract which is always an added motivating factor.

Finally, I must acknowledge that I have been greatly amused watching the train wreck otherwise known as the always-evolving “Closer Carousel.” Newly acquired Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan started out hot, cooled off, got hurt, and now looks like an afterthought with the job Andrew Bailey is doing. Carlos Marmol and John Axford lost their jobs during Week 1 with epic failures. Then Marmol has some success pitching in a setup role. As soon as he is given another chance to protect a lead, he fails…again. I mostly put his recent blown save on his manager, who brought him in the day after throwing over thirty pitches in a two inning outing. Not to mention Joey Votto was overdue against him and a runner was already in scoring position. I, like most GMs, are happy to avoid the headaches and indigestion that some of these bad closers can cause. The Detroit Tigers closing situation has been like a Mike Shanahan running back competition. First it is this guy, then it is that guy, and now it’s Jose Valverde all over again. There is a very good chance that this will change again by the time this article is published.

PS Axford might get his closers job back………

You can also see this article featured at Fantasyjudgment.com as Coach Dennis’s Diary