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Week One NFL DFS Value Plays on DraftKings

Week One NFL DFS Value Plays For Draft Kings

Renee Miller and I spoke about many of these players last night on The Fantasy Coach Podcast (Listen here), but I figured I could touch on a few names that I just can’t seem to get away from.

My favorite values:

Julius Thomas at 5800- I absolutely love Thomas this year and think Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are going to be putting the pedal to the medal in their first live action since the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks.  Thomas has a very good chance to be the top TE in week one and he’s almost 2500 dollars cheaper than Jimmy Graham.

Shaun Hill at 5000-  Obviously rock bottom prices for starting QBs don’t come along often.  There would have to be a freak mid weak injury for you to see this type of value in season, but to start the season these things happen.  Hill is a decent back up QB in the NFL and isn’t afraid to get the ball downfield to his big wide receivers.  The Vikings secondary was pretty bad last year and they only upgraded at the slot corner position and I’m not sure it was much of an upgrade.

Mark Ingram at 4200-  Ingram looked like a different RB at the end of last season and through out the preseason.  The Saints were opening up huge holes and Ingram was running angry and was very decisive when it was his turn in the triumvirate of the Saints’ backfield.  Sure he won’t catch many balls with Pierre Thomas  there, but he will be running against a run defense that didn’t get much better in the off season when he faces Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense at 3100- Lovie Smith is in town and inherited a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Bucs also spent in the off season on that side of the ball and it showed in the preseason as they didn’t give up a touchdown with their first unit.  With Cam Newton a game time decision the Bucs could be going against the turnover machine that is known as Derek Anderson.

Alshon Jeffrey at 7100-  Jeffrey may not have the lowest points to dollars spent out of my best buys, but he very well could be the best play of the weekend.  I watched the Bills secondary look very shaky in the preseason and Jeffrey looks like he is on the verge of joining the big six wide receiver conversation.  He could easily have the best numbers in week one of the DFS slate.

 

 

(Ignore the Shaun Droughn Value in the graphic!)

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Episode 024: Week One NFL DFS With Renee Miller

Episode 024: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Week One NFL DFS

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week one of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.  We discuss how the vagaries of week one of the first week of the NFL change the way we normally approach setting up our lineups.  We specifically talk about Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas, Frank Gore, Shaun Hill, LeSean McCoy, Alshon Jeffrey, Michael Floyd, Michael Crabtree and Rob Gronkowski.

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

 

Thank Yous For Episode 024:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week one of the NFL season.  Make sure you check back in the next few days as I will have a bunch of links to her latest articles.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

 

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Episode 021: Fantasy Football Sigmund Bloom

Episode 021: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Tight End Draft Strategy

Featuring: Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) FootballGuys.comaudible_logo_157

About My Guest:  Sigmund Bloom is a Co-owner/Partner, , Former NFL Draft lead writer for Bleacher Report, Fantasy Brain Advisory Board Member.  For a more detailed, slightly dated Bio you can go Here.

Episode Summary:  Sig and I try to sell you on the idea of drafting Jimmy Graham and/or Rob Gronkowski in the first two rounds of your fantasy football drafts.  We also discuss fantasy football draft strategy overall as well as why we target high ceiling tight end instead of wasting middle round picks on presumably safer tight ends.

Episode Rundown:

  • Intro
  • We get to know Sigmund Bloom a little.
  • Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are discussed at length.
  • Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron and their potential to join the elite are discussed.
  • We discuss the fact that the tight ends regularly ranked from five to ten don’t posses the upside of the guys ranked after them.  Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, and Dennis Pitta are discussed.
  • We talk about the break out potential of Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph and Dwayne Allen.
  • We discuss Eric Ebron for a split second.
  • The Coach’s Office: Brought to you by Revolabels.com.RevoLabels.com
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 021:  I want to thank Sigmund Bloom for taking some time out of his busy late August schedule to discuss the tight end position in fantasy football.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Zero Running Back

The Fantasy Football Black Book

 

There are many strategies that can work when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football leagues in 2014, but one fantasy football draft strategy seems to be really taking hold when people are drafting from the back end of a PPR (point per reception league) draft.  The zero running back strategy is taking over expert and amateur fantasy football drafts alike.  The importance of the wide receiver position and the ability to avoid potential draft busts with early round picks has taken hold.  The question marks at the running back position start right after the top five running backs, while the top six wide receivers are virtually guaranteed to approach their projected statistics.

The FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association) Fantasy Football Leagues recently kicked off their drafts and mine is filled some of my friends from the industry.  One of of my friends in the league is Mark Kaplan, @DaTrueGuru, and he is picking from the 10 spot in out twelve team PPR FSWA draft.  I noticed his team was avoiding the running back position early in the draft and asked if he would mind sharing his draft strategy and thoughts and he, by some miracle, obliged.  I was particularly interested in his thoughts because I have been drafting very similarly from that same spot in leagues and because Mark has done extremely well in the FSWA leagues lately.  He even has a 2013 FSWA Fantasy Basketball Championship already under his belt and is currently among the leaders in the Fantasy Baseball Leagues as well.

Here’s Mark’s FSWA Draft Early Draft Strategy from the 10 spot:

The FSWA Insiders draft is a PPR league where we have to start three wide receivers and a flex. That means wide receivers rule the draft, but most people want to take running backs early and often, despite their injury risk and the fact that wideouts easily out produce running backs in PPR leagues. I had the 10th overall pick and knew right away I was going WR/WR because every running back after the first four main guys are all over valued and come with question marks.

Luckily Demaryius Thomas was there for me at 10 and I instantly took the highest scoring WR in PPR leagues last season. Then my boy, Brandon Marshall, was there for my next pick and again, instantly took him. B-Marsh is so reliable and is basically a guarantee to get 100 receptions (has done that in two straight seasons). Just like that, I have two players that should each get me 300 points.
demaryius-thomas
Now the tough decisions start. With my third pick, I was staring at some very questionable running backs like Reggie Bush (J. Bell was already gone and just not a fan of Bush), Rashad Jennings (has never been the #1 guy before), Frank Gore (means I would have to reach on Carlos Hyde in a few rounds,so would basically be spending 2 picks on one RB), Ben Tate(injury concerns). That is a road I wanted to avoid. Julius Thomas was there as well, but not only is he overrated (had only 65 catches last season), there are also a lot of other TE’s I like rounds 8-10 that I’d rather draft at their value, than draft Thomas in the third round. Therefore, I was going to target a wide receiver, but which one? I was choosing between Andre Johnson (who was ranked 96th for some unknown reason), Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, and Pierre Garcon. I ended up going with Andre Johnson because he’s an elite wide receiver (finished 10th overall among WRs last season and has played in 16 games in each of the past two season). When it gets back to me, J. Thomas, Cruz, Jennings, and Bush are gone and I’m faced with the decision again: reach on a questionable running back, like T. Gerhart or B.Tate, or take another elite WR. Decided to go WR for the fourth time, this time was deciding between Keenan Allen and Garcon. It was basically coin flip and decided I like the upside of Allen so went with him.
Keenan Allen
Now my starting roster is set with four wideouts that should all produce 270 plus fantasy points this season (there were only five running backs last season that reached 270 fantasy points and one of those guys was Knowshon Moreno). Instead of taking running backs that might produce in the third or fourth round, I loaded up on great wideouts. What about running backs? Well there are going to be plenty of guys in the fifth and sixth round that have just as much upside and question marks as the guys in the third or fourth rounds like Fred Jackson, Pierre Thomas, Baltimore RBs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, Chris Johnson, to name a few. Now, I will be taking running backs the rest of the draft (besides getting a QB and a TE). But here’s the thing, all I need is one of my late round running backs to emerge as a #1, out of all of the ones I will end up taking, to be almost unstoppable. If I can get 10-13 points from each of my running backs (which isn’t hard to get in a PPR league) I end up taking, then my team will be extremely successful.
I want players that are consistent and will put up points, despite what position they play. Instead of reaching on a running back that might get me 200-220 points, I’d gladly take the wide receiver that is going to score 270 points. The objective is to score the most points each week, not build a pretty looking roster, and by going with four wide receivers to start the draft, I’m on my way to scoring a plethora of points of every week.
**I want to thank Mark for taking the time to do a guest post for me and implore anyone who enjoys fantasy sports to give him a follow on twitter, @DaTrueGuru**

Editor’s Note- Check out this interview for the Fantasy Sports Network featuring Michael Salfino talking about Zero Running Back

For more great Fantasy Football content check out the latest episodes of The Fantasy Coach Podcast and check out The Fantasy Football Black Book 2014 Edition.
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