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Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast with Renee Miller

Episode 026: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 2 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and Fanduel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week two of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.  We specifically talk about Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill, Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Terrance West, Mark Ingram, Bobby Rainey, Shonn Greene, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Andrew Hawkins, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz.

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You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

 

Thank Yous For Episode 026:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week two of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS.  Make sure you check back in the next few days as I will have a bunch of links to her latest articles.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

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Week One NFL DFS Value Plays on DraftKings

Week One NFL DFS Value Plays For Draft Kings

Renee Miller and I spoke about many of these players last night on The Fantasy Coach Podcast (Listen here), but I figured I could touch on a few names that I just can’t seem to get away from.

My favorite values:

Julius Thomas at 5800- I absolutely love Thomas this year and think Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are going to be putting the pedal to the medal in their first live action since the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks.  Thomas has a very good chance to be the top TE in week one and he’s almost 2500 dollars cheaper than Jimmy Graham.

Shaun Hill at 5000-  Obviously rock bottom prices for starting QBs don’t come along often.  There would have to be a freak mid weak injury for you to see this type of value in season, but to start the season these things happen.  Hill is a decent back up QB in the NFL and isn’t afraid to get the ball downfield to his big wide receivers.  The Vikings secondary was pretty bad last year and they only upgraded at the slot corner position and I’m not sure it was much of an upgrade.

Mark Ingram at 4200-  Ingram looked like a different RB at the end of last season and through out the preseason.  The Saints were opening up huge holes and Ingram was running angry and was very decisive when it was his turn in the triumvirate of the Saints’ backfield.  Sure he won’t catch many balls with Pierre Thomas  there, but he will be running against a run defense that didn’t get much better in the off season when he faces Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense at 3100- Lovie Smith is in town and inherited a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Bucs also spent in the off season on that side of the ball and it showed in the preseason as they didn’t give up a touchdown with their first unit.  With Cam Newton a game time decision the Bucs could be going against the turnover machine that is known as Derek Anderson.

Alshon Jeffrey at 7100-  Jeffrey may not have the lowest points to dollars spent out of my best buys, but he very well could be the best play of the weekend.  I watched the Bills secondary look very shaky in the preseason and Jeffrey looks like he is on the verge of joining the big six wide receiver conversation.  He could easily have the best numbers in week one of the DFS slate.

 

 

(Ignore the Shaun Droughn Value in the graphic!)

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The 2014 Standard Flex League Draft

2014 Standard Flex League

First and foremost, I want to thank Jake Ciely, @Allinkid, for inviting me to participate in the Flex Leagues this year.  Jake and The Fntasy Sports Network put on a hell of a draft with a virtual murderer’s row for a list of participants.  The fact that it was a live draft where I would be rubbing elbows and talking fantasy football with so many of the fantasy experts that I converse with on Twitter made it a very unique experience.  The hospitality and of course the excellent food and drink from Hibernia Pub were just the icing on the cake.

A few nights before the draft I got the bad news that I would be picking from the eight spot in the standard scoring Flex League.  Not only was I picking from the eight spot, but I would be picking next to my buddy Pat Thorman from PFF Fantasy for the millionth time this summer.

The eight spot is the ultimate “What’s your flavor” spot in standard scoring fantasy football leagues.  All the sure-fire running backs are off the board and usually Montee Ball is scooped up right in front of the eighth pick.  You can go best running back available, best wide receiver available or go with the ultimate tight end weapon in Jimmy Graham.

On the drive in with Jim Day, @FantasyTaz, and Mike Stein, @FantasyJudgment, I was hoping that some of the owners in front of me would be throwing curve-balls and selecting wide receivers or Jimmy Graham so that I would have an easy decision between Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball at the eight spot.  Unfortunately the first eight picks were pretty typical for a standard scoring league, except for Michael Salfino going with the best wide receiver on the board at number three overall.  Usually that pick doesn’t get made until the middle or late part of the first round in standard leagues so it was an interesting shake it up pick.

Jake Ciely then put the nail in the running back coffin by going with Montee Ball at sixth overall and I had to really think about not going running back in the first round.

My first thought was to go Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson and then hope to grab Brandon Marshall on the way back and build my team through the Wide Receiver position.  Not a bad option, but I like that approach a lot more in PPR or 1/2 Point PPR Leagues and not as much in standard scoring leagues.  The other major decision I had, was to go Jimmy Graham in the first and then grab Rob Gronkowski in the second to wipe out the tight end position and get a monster standard  flex option for this type of league.

If I had decided to go tight end-tight end to start the draft, I’m sure I would have gotten some face time on the network and probably been the talk of the early part of the draft, but I wanted to approach this draft as if money was on the line.  I looked at what running backs would be available to me on the way back in the second round and I didn’t like it.  I would have been forced to gamble on an Arian Foster type of back and that’s someone I’m trying to avoid.  If I reached a little at running back in the first round I had a very good chance to get one of the top six wide receivers on the way back.

So I gambled on DeMarco Murray and that Dallas Cowboys’ Offensive Line with my first round pick and grabbed Brandon Marshall with my second round pick.  The start was nothing to brag about on Twitter, but it was pretty solid and I could try to make up for the slight reach in the first by grabbing talent through out the draft.

The third round was tough because there wasn’t any clear cut value at either the wide receiver position or the running back position.  Randall Cobb was tough to pass up, but I decided to gamble on C.J. Spiller in the hopes that he can overcome his rough 2013 and put up solid yardage numbers across the board.  His TDs will always be a little disappointing with Fred Jackson getting the bulk of the carries from inside the 20 yard line, but he can score from anywhere on the field when he’s healthy.  My hopes of Joique Bell getting back to me were immediately killed when Pat Thorman took him right after I took Spiller in the 3rd.

With Bell gone I decided I was going to go with the best wide receiver available and grabbed Vincent Jackson with my fourth round pick.  I really like Jackson in standard scoring leagues and I can live with his up and down output in the fourth round.  When it came back to me in the fifth round I had Jordan Cameron sitting on a platter for me to grab, but I instead went with Ben Tate as the last upside starting running back left on the board.  Pat immediately scooped up Cameron with then next pick and that pick immediately gave me a case of picker’s remorse.  With the news of Josh Gordon‘s season long suspension coming down today, the Cameron pick looks even better for Mr. Thorman.

The sixth round offered up a bunch of PPR stud wide receivers, but I decided to go with the big play potential in Mike Wallace.  I’m hoping Ryan Tannehill can improve in the new Dolphins’ Offense and get his big-play weapon involved.  If Wallace can once again become a downfield threat he will be worth the sixth round price tag in standard scoring.

When it came back to me in the seventh round I was struggling between taking Terrance Williams and Kyle Rudolph.  I have Rudolph rated as my fifth overall tight end in standard scoring and Williams was bunched up with a lot of other upside wide receiver twos.  I decided to make my play with Rudolph in the seventh instead of gambling on him getting back to me in the eighth.  In retrospect I may have been able to dodge Jake and Paul taking Rudolph and come out of the 7th and 8th with both of my targets, but ending up with DeAndre Hopkins instead of Terrance Williams is not that big of a drop.

The ninth round was where I decided that Cam Newton was actually a value in this scoring system.  Newton hasn’t finished outside of the top five in four point passing touchdown leagues since he stepped foot on an NFL field.  The run on QBs was going to come and I wanted to grab the guy I want before it starts, especially when there was no one else that stood out to me as a value on the board.

The 10th round is where I finally made a pick that got me some face time on the Fntasy Sports Network.  Of course it was because Pat Mayo wanted to figure out who in their right mind would take Mark Ingram in the 10th round of a Fantasy Football Draft.  To make a long story short he was the 45th running back taken and I have him just outside my top 30 for STANDARD Scoring running backs.  Chris Wesseling put a lot of the reasons why people should give Mark Ingram one more chance into his article here at NFL.com.

The next two picks were just roster fills as I took Greg Jennings and Tyler Eifert in the 11th and the 12th round.  Jennings isn’t anything special and I’m not going to delude myself into thinking he was some major bargain as the 52nd wide receiver off the board, but Eifert could be interesting in a standard flex league, especially with touchdown vulture Marvin Jones on the shelf for the first four weeks of the season.  The fact that Eifert is still not ready to play in week four of the preseason has me a little concerned.

The 13th round is where the darts usually start getting thrown in all directions, but Colin Kaepernick was just too good to pass up as my QB2 in a four point passing TD League.  Kaepernick’s ceiling is in the top six of QBs and his floor is just outside the top twelve so getting him to back up Cam Newton was a nice surprise.  With Cam Newton suffering a cracked rib in the preseason this pick may end up being a pretty big one.  If someone suffers a major injury at QB I have some ammo to make a trade.

James Jones at wide receiver 66 could be a steal.  He had ten targets in the last preseason game and the only reason he’s been sliding down the rankings is because he was behind Andre Holmes and Rod Streater in the first two preseason games.  My thoughts were that the Raiders knew what they had when they signed Jones away from Green Bay and wanted to see which receivers were going to be in their plans going forward.

The Rams Defense was my next pick and it allows me to start streaming defenses early in the season with their week four bye.  My last pick was spent on Bryce Brown and it was done as insurance for Spiller and because I think he can really excel if he’s give a chance this year.  If Fred Jackson gets injured Brown could explode this season.


 

 

Fantasy Football Week 11 Thoughts

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Week 11 is traditionally where I begin to narrow my focus for a Fantasy Football playoff run. The bulk of the fantasy season is behind us, but the real work is just beginning. We should start by looking to make trades for players that have favorable match-ups in the playoffs. Then make the small trades that help protect our rosters. Like trading a fifth wide receiver for Joique Bell so you don’t get stuck with Reggie Bush standing in street clothes come Week 15. Those types of trades should only happen if the handcuff can produce similar fantasy points and the player has a clear history of injuries.

Before we look forward to Week 11 we must take a look back at what happened in Week 10.

Nice Surprises

First and foremost, our very own Andre Brown made his claim for more fantasy attention with a fantastic game against the Oakland Raiders. He touched the ball 31 times producing over 100 yards and scored a touchdown. What many saw as a cloudy running back situation for the Giants, including me, has become a beacon of hope for fantasy owners. Brown was clearly what the Giants have been looking for and should be a solid RB2 going forward.

Tavon Austin finally looked like a top 10 pick as he broke out for a three touchdown game. While waiver wire darling Zac Stacy was mostly bottled up on the day, Austin exploded. Austin still didn’t see the field as much as he should, but at least it was a very encouraging sign for those that own him in dynasty formats. I still don’t see him as much more than a WR4 for the fantasy playoffs.

Golden Tate took advantage of a beautiful match-up against the Atlanta Falcons and scored well above his weekly average. Tate’s 6 receptions for 106 yards and touchdown saw him as a perfect bye week filler for guys like Josh Gordon and Danny Amendola. He should be a high end WR4 going down the stretch.

Mark Ingram

Three New Orleans Saints who were either headed towards, or were firmly in the fantasy football abyss finally broke out. Marques Colston was borderline dropable heading into this week. He was right there with Dwayne Bowe as far as usefulness for a fantasy owner. The only difference is that Colston has Drew Brees throwing him the ball.  Brees finally decided to look Colston’s way and he delivered with 7 receptions for 107 yards and 1 TD.  Mark Ingram was so forgotten that he was even being dropped in dynasty leagues. The former Alabama star, who is just now fully healthy, ran like a man possessed against the Dallas Cowboys defense. He racked up 145 yards and a touch down on just 14 carries and added 2 receptions for 15 yards for good measure. Darren Sproles came into the game on a long string of disappointing fantasy returns. The Cowboys were the ideal remedy to get him going. He scored on the ground and through the air as he looked like his old elusive self. The Cowboys sixth-string linebackers only made him look that much more amazing.

Disappointments

Trent RichardsonRay Rice, and C.J. Spiller.

Richardson has just not been able to get going since being traded to theIndianapolis Colts. The fact that fantasy owners are now looking to start Donald Brown over him makes him border-line dropable at this point. I am holding out hope, but I am literally starting a ball boy over him at this point. Ray Rice is not the same player he used to be at this point. The hip injury has sapped some of his elusiveness and power and he is running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Joe Flacco is still looking to him in the passing game, but he can’t make the first guy miss at this point, so his yardage suffers. I would look to trade him for anything that could help me down the road, because Ray Rice is still a name and sometimes you can make a deal on that alone. C.J. Spiller’s ankle was finally healed and he was coming off a 100 yard performance, so naturally the Bills were going to feature him….right? Nope, Spiller basically saw a third of the snaps in the backfield for the Bills and he was once again a fantasy disappointment.

The Mike James injury! Mike James was fast becoming a big-time fantasy running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.    He was the answer to all the prayers of Doug Martin and David Wilson owners as the Buccaneers had decided to feature James going forward in a more balanced attack. The Buccaneers had finally decided to put Doug Martin on injured reserve early on the weekend making Mike James rest of the season outlook look that much better.  Well a fractured ankle on a run that came up just inches short of a touchdown may have cost some of us a fantasy championship.

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Week 11 Start/Sit

With only Dallas and St. Louis on a bye in Week 11 most fantasy teams will be fully stocked for battle.

The Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles game looks like an explosive fantasy match up on paper, but these two teams are division rivals who have already played each other once. I still think there should be some nice fantasy points scored in this game, but I don’t really trust Robert Griffin III just yet. If Griffin is erratic throwing the ball then the Redskins offense will stall and The Eagles will take the air out of the ball with LeSean McCoy. The one good thing for the Redskin’s run defense is that Nick Folesis under center and he is much less of a threat in a zone-read situation. The Redskins have been gashed all year by mobile quarterbacks running zone-read.

While Marshawn Lynch has a great match-up against the Minnesota VikingsAdrian Peterson will see his name slide down some fantasy experts’ lists. I am not one of those experts. I think Peterson is just finally getting healthy and that the Seahawks defense can be run on. I have Peterson as my number four overall running back this week.

Ben Tate

We saw what Andre Brown and the Giants were able to do against the Oakland Raiders last week. Well now Ben Tate and the Houston Texans get those same Raiders in Houston. I feel like Tate is going to have a very big day, but his injured ribs are my only concern. High upside RB2 for me this week.

Alfred Morris was having a huge game last Thursday before the Redskins forgot to call running plays in the second half. This week they’ll stick to the running game against the Eagles and Morris will finally get back into the end zone.

Because of injuries and a bye week for Tony Romo you may need to use the waiver wire for your quarterback this week. While early in the year I may have had to recommend any quarterback that was facing the New York Giants, that is no longer the case. The Giants have improved dramatically in recent weeks and make starting the newest Green Bay quarter back Scott Tolzien a real reach. I would instead look to Case Keenum against the Oakland Raiders or Ben Roethlisberger against the Detroit Lions.

The wide receiver match ups are very interesting. Andre Johnson gets a huge bump with Case Keenum now slinging the ball in Houston and looks to have the best match up of all the wide receiver ones. DeSean Jackson ran through the Redskin’s secondary at will the last time they played and he should still find room this week to make him a top play. The Eagles’ other wide receiver, Riley Cooper, has seen his fantasy statistics sky-rocket with Nick Foles at the helm and looks to be a WR3 and flex option going forward. Huge disparity in numbers for Cooper with Foles under center than withMichael Vick.

Two guys that would usually be at the top of any wide receiver list, in Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green actually face very tough match-ups this week. Calvin Johnson faces the always tough Ike Taylor, while A.J. Green gets theJoe Haden. I expect Johnson to still put up representative numbers, but Haden is a real tough draw for A.J. Green.

A man that may have been forgotten and that the Dolphins‘ owner, general manager, and fans would probably like to forget so far this season, Mike Wallace, actually has a very nice match up this week against the San Diego Chargers. The only issue is if Wallace decides to actually try for a change.

Two of my top tight end plays this week happen to share the same first name.  Jordan Reed and Jordan Cameron both have pretty good match ups this week. Reed faces the Eagles and is in the enviable position of being the number two target on a team that may have to play catch up on Sunday. Cameron is the Browns number two target and should have been working during the bye week with Jason Campbell to get on the same page. Cameron is an unbelievable talent as a pass catcher and I expect Campbell and the Browns to do everything they can to get him the ball going forward.

Top Fantasy Waiver Targets

Michael Crabtree — it looks like he could be back soon as the 49ers have let go of Kyle Williams

Brian Leonard

Brian Leonard, Mark Ingram, Bobby RaineyShonn Greene, Rishard Mathews, Nate BurlesonTyler EifertCoby FleenerRob Housler

Who has been your biggest fantasy football disappointment and surprise to this point?

Contact me @Coachesser on Twitter or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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