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2015 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft Podcast

Episode 055 The Fantasy Coach Podcast

2015 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft Podcast

Featuring Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL) of VikingsTerritory.com, BR, Optimimum Scouting, The Norse Code Podcast among others.

Aif and I go back and forth drafting for each team 1-32 (and yes, even the Browns twice!) and talk about team needs, player profiles and the fantasy football potential of some of the best offensive players in this draft.  We especially focus on the New York Giants and the Minnesota Vikings when those picks come up, but we spend quite a bit of time on every team so make sure you hang out for the entire 2 and a 1/2 hours to catch it all.  Stay tuned as we revisit this topic before the draft and see if our thoughts change at all.

NFL Draft

Fantasy League Commissioner Wanted

You don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.  While Cinderella’s early 90’s power ballad may have made me queasy Cinderellaat the time, truer words were truly never spoken.   I had no idea how lucky I was that my buddy from age five had been our fantasy football league commissioner for all these years.  He was truly unbiased and thoughtful in every situation.  Whether it was rule changes, votes for new members, or controversial trades, he always put the integrity of the league first.  Over these last 15 years, I now realize I have taken him for granted.  I never knew how much he improved my quality of life until I started venturing out into new leagues recently.

 

I feel like all three major sports leagues in the U.S. could take some notes from my old commissioner.  Roger Roger-GoodellGoodell with the NFL has put himself front and center in all things and only cares about his own legacy.  Bud Selig has made MLB an old buddy-buddy league that is full of underhanded dealings and biased rulings.  David Stern walks around believing that he made the NBA a must see league, even though it was the league that Magic, Bird and Jordan made.  I’m not talking about Gary Bettman because, well this isn’t Canada.  Is it?

 

I have joined a bunch of different leagues the last few years and found the commissioners have closely resembled at least one of the big three.  In one league, rules were changed after the draft that clearly benefited the commissioner and his cronies.  His Bud Selig impression was not appreciated and I was quickly a one and done league champ.  The worst situation was when I joined a dynasty fantasy football league that was clearly run by a Roger Goodell clone.  Every correspondence was rank with arrogance.  The straw that broke the camel’s back was when he traded for Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant and gave up Eli Manning and Michael Turner.  I died a little inside when I emailed the entire league to ask for some back up with my protests to this trade-rape, and found no backers.  When I pressed one league member about why he didn’t protest the trade he said, “It wouldn’t matter if we protested, the commissioner has complete autonomy over the league and will beat down any challenges in the ranks.”

 

Situations and priorities change, and so does life.  Three kids later, an ever growing workload, and free time that would only be envied by an indentured servant has made it impossible for me to take on the responsibility of being a league commissioner.  I feel like I would be unbiased, fair, and decent, but alas I am not available for the job.

 

The ones that are available sadly don’t measure up.  Think about it…who in their mid-thirties to early forties hasComic Book Guy time to run fantasy leagues?  Single guys in their thirties or forties have the time, but do we really want them in charge?  They are probably single for a reason.  They have either never had their stuff together long enough to impress a mate or have been found wanting by the opposite sex (or same sex) when given the chance.  Whether they lied, cheated, or stole none of these traits make for a good commissioner.  Ideally, you want your commissioner to be like the dad from Growing Pains, not Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons (Worst Commissioner Ever).

 

My real frustration comes from the laziness that has permeated some of these leagues.  Instead of having an honest commissioner make fair decisions on trades, I have been forced to deal with league votes.  How can a league vote ever be fair to a team in a playoff position?  It’s like having ten angry jurors deciding your fate.  Teams ahead of you have the bias of not wanting you to catch them.  Teams below you want to catch up to you and will not be happy if you strengthen your squad.  Then there is the team you are playing that week that has the ultimate bias.

 

Recently I made a trade that had to be put to a league vote.  The GM that I was playing that week told me he was voting against the trade solely out of spite. The trade would have given me a little more power and he didn’t want me to make up a disadvantage in homeruns that week.  I had to sit on my hands and hope everyone made a fair and unbiased decision.  It was gut-wrenching, but it eventually passed. (P.S. Chris Davis hit a two-run homerun on Sunday for me to tie in homeruns and give me the RBI category)

America-needs-you

So if you are reading this and feel you are a man among men, please step up to the plate and be a league commissioner.  Fantasy leagues need you, I need you, and more importantly, America needs you!

This article also appears at www.FantasyJudgment.com as part of a weekly series called Coach Esser’s Diary.

New Fantasy Judgment Logo

Fantasy Football 2012 Post Season Awards

After a long and grueling season, it is now time for Coach Dennis to hand out his awards for unique and completely fabricated categories.

The Least Sexy Pick of the Year 

Marshawn Lynch

Winner: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA)

On draft day you would probably heard a lot of people say good pick as you put Marshawn’s name on the board.  Not great, but good is the moral of this story.  No one was super excited about drafting Lynch with an unknown commodity starting at QB in 2012.  The smart GMs saw the late season matchups and knew the offense would run on Marshawn slipping into “Beast Mode” if the Seahawks were to reach their potential.  Marshawn put up ten 100 yard rushing days and 12 total touchdowns during the season.  His biggest games came at the most important times for fantasy GMs.  Weeks 13 through 16 Lynch put up huge numbers carrying GMs into the playoffs, and onto the winners stand.  Lynch averaged 109.75 yards rushing and 1.75 touchdowns during the most critical weeks of the year, earning him a Post Season award from yours truly, and a place in the hearts of Fantasy GMs around the country.

The Dennis Green “They are what we thought they were!” Award

Dennis Green

Winner: Michael Turner (RB-ATL)

The entire world was ready for Michael Turner to fall off the list of must start running backs, and he did not disappoint.  The talking heads on TV and even the guy at your draft that shows up with a draft guide printed in April all knew to stay away from this aging former fantasy stud.  His decline in production was a perfect storm of factors for the Atlanta Falcons.  The team was finally full of healthy weapons all over the field, and was moving more to a pass first offense, which did not bode well for the old war horse.  The continued maturation of Jacquizz Rogers was just another nail into the coffin.  While Turner did produce 11 combined touchdowns, he only totaled 800 yards rushing while only topping 20 carries once.

Same Team, Same Stats, Different Guy

Winner: Steven Ridley (RB-NE)

Stevan Ridley’s 1,263 rushing yards were well beyond Benjarvis Green-Ellis’s last few seasons in New England, but the 12 touchdowns was exactly what you could count on from the law-firm in his final two years in New England.  Ridley was a steal as a top notch Running Back 2 in most leagues as he topped 100 yards four times and was the consistent goal line back piling up 12 touchdowns (when he was not in Belichek’s doghouse for fumbles).  While he may not be Adrian Peterson, he is definitely the most talented back to feature for the Patriots since Corey Dillon.

Different Team, Same Stats, Same Guy

Peyton Manning BroncosPeyton Manning Colts

Winner: Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)

Peyton Manning was a steal in most drafts.  He would have easily been the fourth or fifth quarterback taken if not for his career-threatening injury coupled with an address change to Denver.  Manning was snapped up in the middle rounds in most drafts and threw 37 touchdowns, placing him third in the league while also eclipsing his totals during his previous two healthy years (2009-2010).  He also threw for over 4,600 yards without breaking a sweat and seemingly getting better as the season progressed.  Manning single-handedly made Demaryious Thomas and Eric Decker a dynamic receiving duo.  Having these receivers and a solid running game, Manning’s renaissance is not a one-year wonder and he should return to the top of draft boards in 2013.

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Darren McFadden

Winner: Darren McFadden (RB-OAK)

While fantasy owners constantly salivate over Darren McFadden’s potential and raw skills, he has proven again and again that he cannot hold up over the course of a season.  This year proved no different as he missed four games due to constant foot and ankle injuries.  Even when he was in the lineup, he had trouble adapting to a new zone read scheme.  McFadden registered 700 yards rushing and just three touchdowns after being a late first or early second round pick.  Two of his three 100 yard rushing days were against the Chiefs – enough said.  I know there are a lot of you reading this cringing like a girlfriend constantly scorned, but I am willing to bet that you will probably draft him again next year based on potential.

Worst Deep Round Sleeper

Winner: Titus Young (WR-DET)

No matter where you looked, everyone and their mother were touting Lions wide receiver Titus Young, the second-year pro out of Boise State.  I was almost swept up into the madness until I realized that he had more personal fouls during his rookie season than the entire New York Giants defense.  Not exactly the calm, cool under pressure young receiver I wanted for my team, to say the least.  With Calvin Johnson constantly seeing double coverage, Young was supposed to reap the rewards.  Young was expected to almost double his 2011 stats of 600 yards and 6 touchdowns, but instead he cut that in half as he regressed into a banished draft bust.  Young is the first receiver I have ever seen who purposely lined up in the wrong position, as well as ran the wrong routes in protest of how he was being used in the Lions’ offense.  I believe everyone deserves a second chance, but I think his will come on the waiver wire both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues.

Most Valuable Surgeon

Winner: Dr. James Andrews

Dr. James Andrews

Dr. Andrews once again worked his magic as Adrian Peterson came back from a torn MCL and ACL to come within 9 yards of breaking the all-time single season rushing record.  Peterson was only held in check by his own coaching staff as he was eased back into his workhorse role.  He was a man amongst boys from Week 7 through Week 17 as he averaged 159.8 yards rushing and just over a touchdown per game.  Peterson was nothing short of phenomenal as he carried many fantasy owners to the Promised Land.

(Honorable Mentions must go out to the surgeons for Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning as they returned to their old selves sooner than anyone could have anticipated.)

The Curse of the Playoff Bye

Congratulations to everyone in fantasy land who have made it to the playoffs.  A big gold star goes out to those of you who managed to get first round byes thanks to your successful regular seasons.  While a week without fantasy football stress sounds like the perfect antidote to pressure endured over the last few weeks of the regular season, beware.  A weekend of lounging comfortably and relaxing with your family while others are glued to their televisions, computers and smartphones can actually be your undoing.

Bye weeks for actual NFL players are spent on the golf course or catching up on long neglected household chores.  Clean yards and gutters are fine and dandy for NFL players, but yard and gutters will remain a blight on my neighborhood until the league championship is mine.

While you occasionally glance at the scores and check the updates on Monday for injuries, your opponents will have the upper hand of firsthand knowledge.  While you adjust your starters based on box scores and injury reports, your opponents will be using their eyes and ears to help them gain an advantage.  The box score does not tell the entire story of a game.  For instance, you would never know about a snowstorm in Buffalo or a torrentialSnow in Buffalo downpour in Miami by reading the stats.  You might just be looking at the stats with blinders on, not realizing the starting quarterback was knocked out in the second quarter leading to your receiver having a terrible day.

John Skelton

John Skelton turning it over, again

I suggest you play the week.  Pick your starters by doing your homework.  Watch the games with a keen eye.  Spend your weekend looking for trends such as Denarious Moore being benched again, or Steve Smith getting more targets with Brandon Lafell on the mend.  Has Colin Kaepernick actually found a go-to receiver in Michael Crabtree?  Does John Skelton throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald constantly, or does he get hooked faster than I would while performing at the Apollo Theatre?

Injuries are a huge part of the sport and a huge obstacle for fantasy owners.  If you have been playing musical chairs with your second running back, you may want to give the job to Montell Owings this week.  His bruising style and fresh legs might just be the answer to your RB2 prayers.  Danario Alexander is obviously the guy to start if you have injury concerns at receiver.  I would have pushed for Cecil Shorts III to overtake any of your other WR2 options, but a concussion suffered against Buffalo has me, and everyone else who rode his hot streak into the playoffs, concerned.  If I were the coach and GM in Jacksonville, I wouldn’t risk a possible superstar when we have nothing to play for.

Russell WilsonRussell Wilson has been consistent enough to overtake Phillip Rivers, and quite possibly Eli Manning, as a starter for your fantasy team.  I would ride him one more week if you have Ben Roethlisberger on your bench.  I wouldn’t play him over Tony Romo, Cam Newton, or even Colin Kaepernick yet.

Good luck, and hit me up on Twitter @Coachesser for any start/sit questions you might have.

 

The Art of The Deal

With the final few weeks of the Fantasy Football regular season upon us, most GM’s are scrambling to optimize their rosters for that all important playoff push.  While some are scouring the waiver wire in the hopes that Cecil Shorts is this year’s Victor Cruz, others are doing their homework trying to make the perfect deadline trade.  After realizing that Sidney Rice and Jeremy Maclin aren’t the guys to bring the trophy home, you can fall back on my trade guidelines to help you pluck that perfect piece off of someone else’s roster.

Classic Blunders

1. Don’t put available players on your message boards.  You might as well tell your entire league you hate these guys and are willing to be insulted with horrible trade offers.  It gives the impression that your available players have clearance tags on them.  This turns off some GM’s based on the pure fact that these guys must be tainted, and it attracts the vultures that smell a lop-sided deal.  If you put your third running back up on a message board, I guarantee you will be offered someone’s fourth or fifth receiver.  I know we are all busy, but laziness is never rewarded, nor should it be.

2. Don’t put your needs on a message boards.  Again, you are just asking for your buddies to try and take advantage of you.  I really hated when some sites started utilizing needs and available player categories.  You would inevitably only see the guys who were about to be put on the waiver wire put up.

3. Don’t offer a trade and renege.  This happens quite frequently with lazy GM’s.  They offer a deal without looking at the bye weeks and playoff matchups, and when they receive a “yes” they pull out.  You are straining a relationship that you will need for years to come, and in some cases, a friendship.  Before you put out an offer, either through email, text, or verbally, be prepared to follow through.

4. Don’t send out mass emails with available players and needs.  While this might sound redundant, it is actually very different from the message boards.  People occasionally check the message boards in their league, but emails are seen instantly in most cases.   The message boards might get you two or three bad offers whereas mass emails will have your inbox flooded with bad offers to sift through.

5. Don’t let yourself get trapped by bye weeks and fragile players.  If you are banking on guys riding the eternally questionable tag, be prepared to get burned.  When you draft multiple players with the same bye week and don’t plan ahead, you are practically begging for someone to throw you a terrible trade offer.  This week we have Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw all on byes.  If you had two of these guys as your starters you are looking at backup running backs or terrible trade offers to try and win a very important Week 11.  If I am 5-5 right now, I might take a hit to try and get in the tournament. How big of a hit is all in the negotiation.   I can see things like a Lynch for Ridley deal being completed by desperate owners in some leagues.

Do the Work

There is nothing more satisfying than winning a league thanks mostly to your in-season moves.  Sure, some GM’s get lucky drafting a team that goes injury or suspension-free en route to a championship.  But more likely than not, the guys who are constantly vying for the top spot are making key pickups and trades at critical points in the year.  There is no more critical time then the weeks leading up to the playoffs.

Know your strengths and weaknesses.  Are you four-deep at running back but have to rub two sticks together to get a spark from your receivers?  Has your tight end been M.I.A. since Week 2?  Are your Defense and Kicker matchups ideal for the playoffs?

Where are you losing key points week to week?  Are you constantly starting the wrong receiver?  Has your lineup been on autopilot when it needed a hands-on driver?

Know your opponents’ weaknesses and strengths.  Who stockpiled receivers or running backs?  Who has injury issues?  Who has a bye week dilemma?  Who will take Eli Manning off my hands because he or she is still riding high from last season’s Super Bowl win?

Collect information.  Every casual conversation should be an opportunity to gauge your opponent’s feelings about their team.  Sometimes a simple mope up to the board on draft day will let you know a player is available.  I especially love when GMs tell you they love your pick, or they really wanted that guy.  If they wanted him on draft day, he might just be your buyer in Week 11.

Play to your Audience

Every trade is a delicate dance that needs to be approached in a personal way.  Here are some characters that are always fun to deal with.

The Costanza.

CostanzaThis GM is the type of person that thinks all strippers and waitresses are into them.  If you stroke their ego a little you might just be able to get what you want.  Praise them for their draft day foresight and pinpoint in-season pickups.  After some heavy petting they might want to share their wealth with your struggling team.

Mr. Shellshocked.

This GM has been taken advantage of and is very leery of anyone who is interested in their players.  A little honesty will go a long way with this GM.  Tell them who you are after and why.  Always have a second target on their team in mind as they will cling to that first bit of information as the bible truth.  They tend to make fair counteroffers when almost all the cards are on the table.

Mr. Vegas.

This GM is all about the action.  They cannot stand pat for a whole season, let alone week to week.  Always let them know there is a trade in the works.  They might be your pawn in making a deal possible for you.  You may be competing with another team to trade for Jamal Charles who has some favorable playoff matchup.  So you happen to let Mr. Vegas know that your competitor is trying to trade for a running back.  They will instantly try to insert themselves in the trade activities.  You might be able to distract your competitor long enough to pull off your trade.

Puzzle Pieces

The best trades are the ones that make both teams just a little bit better.  Your rosters are like puzzles that needPuzzle pieces each other to finally see the picture.  Sometimes on draft day you might not fit, but with free agent pickups and early season trades you evolve into perfect dance partners.  This is why you should constantly be looking at your opponent’s rosters, waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike.

Recommended Trade Targets

QB –  If you don’t have one by now you are most likely out of luck.  The waiver wire might be your lifeline if Carson Palmer or Josh Freeman is still available.

RB – Jamaal Charles, Willis McGahee, Stevan Ridley (for his next few matchups), and Shonn Greene to a lesser extent.

WR – For a position that was as deep as I could remember it being in years, it has thinned out considerably through injury and ineffectiveness. Try and grab Denarius Moore, Marques Colston, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson and Miles Austin.

TE – Antonio Gates, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen.  You might be able to get Olsen as a throw in to tip the scales in your favor.

 

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