Pierre Garcon – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Zero Running Back
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Zero Running Back

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Zero Running Back

There are many strategies that can work when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football leagues in 2014, but one fantasy football draft strategy seems to be really taking hold when people are drafting from the back end of a PPR (point per reception league) draft. The zero running back strategy is taking over expert and amateur fantasy football drafts alike. The importance of the wide receiver position and the ability to avoid potential draft busts with early round picks has taken hold. The question marks at the running back position start right after the top five running backs, while the top six wide receivers are virtually guaranteed to approach their projected statistics.

The FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association) Fantasy Football Leagues recently kicked off their drafts and mine is filled some of my friends from the industry. One of of my friends in the league is Mark Kaplan, @DaTrueGuru, and he is picking from the 10 spot in out twelve team PPR FSWA draft. I noticed his team was avoiding the running back position early in the draft and asked if he would mind sharing his draft strategy and thoughts and he, by some miracle, obliged. I was particularly interested in his thoughts because I have been drafting very similarly from that same spot in leagues and because Mark has done extremely well in the FSWA leagues lately. He even has a 2013 FSWA Fantasy Basketball Championship already under his belt and is currently among the leaders in the Fantasy Baseball Leagues as well.

Here’s Mark’s FSWA Draft Early Draft Strategy from the 10 spot:

The FSWA Insiders draft is a PPR league where we have to start three wide receivers and a flex. That means wide receivers rule the draft, but most people want to take running backs early and often, despite their injury risk and the fact that wideouts easily out produce running backs in PPR leagues. I had the 10th overall pick and knew right away I was going WR/WR because every running back after the first four main guys are all over valued and come with question marks.

Luckily Demaryius Thomas was there for me at 10 and I instantly took the highest scoring WR in PPR leagues last season. Then my boy, Brandon Marshall, was there for my next pick and again, instantly took him. B-Marsh is so reliable and is basically a guarantee to get 100 receptions (has done that in two straight seasons). Just like that, I have two players that should each get me 300 points.

Now the tough decisions start. With my third pick, I was staring at some very questionable running backs like Reggie Bush (J. Bell was already gone and just not a fan of Bush), Rashad Jennings (has never been the #1 guy before), Frank Gore (means I would have to reach on Carlos Hyde in a few rounds,so would basically be spending 2 picks on one RB), Ben Tate(injury concerns). That is a road I wanted to avoid. Julius Thomas was there as well, but not only is he overrated (had only 65 catches last season), there are also a lot of other TE’s I like rounds 8-10 that I’d rather draft at their value, than draft Thomas in the third round. Therefore, I was going to target a wide receiver, but which one? I was choosing between Andre Johnson (who was ranked 96th for some unknown reason), Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, and Pierre Garcon. I ended up going with Andre Johnson because he’s an elite wide receiver (finished 10th overall among WRs last season and has played in 16 games in each of the past two season). When it gets back to me, J. Thomas, Cruz, Jennings, and Bush are gone and I’m faced with the decision again: reach on a questionable running back, like T. Gerhart or B.Tate, or take another elite WR. Decided to go WR for the fourth time, this time was deciding between Keenan Allen and Garcon. It was basically coin flip and decided I like the upside of Allen so went with him.

Now my starting roster is set with four wideouts that should all produce 270 plus fantasy points this season (there were only five running backs last season that reached 270 fantasy points and one of those guys was Knowshon Moreno). Instead of taking running backs that might produce in the third or fourth round, I loaded up on great wideouts. What about running backs? Well there are going to be plenty of guys in the fifth and sixth round that have just as much upside and question marks as the guys in the third or fourth rounds like Fred Jackson, Pierre Thomas, Baltimore RBs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, Chris Johnson, to name a few. Now, I will be taking running backs the rest of the draft (besides getting a QB and a TE). But here’s the thing, all I need is one of my late round running backs to emerge as a #1, out of all of the ones I will end up taking, to be almost unstoppable. If I can get 10-13 points from each of my running backs (which isn’t hard to get in a PPR league) I end up taking, then my team will be extremely successful.

I want players that are consistent and will put up points, despite what position they play. Instead of reaching on a running back that might get me 200-220 points, I’d gladly take the wide receiver that is going to score 270 points. The objective is to score the most points each week, not build a pretty looking roster, and by going with four wide receivers to start the draft, I’m on my way to scoring a plethora of points of every week.

**I want to thank Mark for taking the time to do a guest post for me and implore anyone who enjoys fantasy sports to give him a follow on twitter, @DaTrueGuru**

Editor’s Note- Check out this interview for the Fantasy Sports Network featuring Michael Salfino talking about Zero Running Back

For more great Fantasy Football content check out the latest episodes of The Fantasy Coach Podcast and check out The Fantasy Football Black Book 2014 Edition.

NFC East Wide Receiver Movement
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NFC East Wide Receiver Movement

Fantasy Football

NFC East Wide Receiver Movement

NFC East Free Agency and Wide Receiver Movement

New York Giants: The Giants let Hakeem Nicks walk this off season and brought back an old Super Bowl hero as a sort-of replacement. The Giants had no designs on keeping Hakeem Nicks in the fold so it came as no surprise when he signed a prove-it deal with the Indianapolis Colts. Nicks’ declining health and skills wore on the Giants’ brass and fans alike. His Fantasy Football stock is at an all-time low even being paired with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, in Andrew Luck.

The sort-of replacement is none other than Mario Manningham. The Giants former third-round pick is back after spending two injury-plagued years in San Francisco. While having Manningham back in the fold feels nice as a fan of the Giants, I don’t expect him to start or to be an asset in Fantasy Football next season. Instead of replacing Hakeem Nicks on the Giants’ roster he is essentially replacing Louis Murphy, who had a very forgettable tenure with Big Blue.

The Giants should and probably will look to fill the void Hakeem Nicks’ exit has created by starting Rueben Randle and getting Jerrel Jernigan more involved in the offense. I do look for the Giants to draft an outside wide receiver this year, and could even see them taking Mike Evans if he ever fell to them. If Evans doesn’t fall to the Giants at 12 there will be a lot of talent at the wide receiver position available at their slot in the second round. Davante Adams or Donte Moncrief would be excellent second round picks.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have had a quiet off season as they are right up against the cap and have done some foolish things with their money lately. While Dez Bryantdidn’t quite take the leap to 1B to Calvin Johnson’s 1A as a fantasy wide receiver as many thought he might, he did put up solid numbers last season. Ninety-three receptions for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, but did leave some fantasy owners wanting.

The lack of a clear cut second option in the passing game hurt Dez Bryant last season.Jason Witten was another year older, and slower, and Miles Austin once again spent most of the season rehabbing his forever-pulled hamstrings. The only bright spot was they appeared to hit on their third round pick in Terrance Williams from Baylor. Williams had 44 receptions for over 700 yards and 5 TD’s in a rookie campaign that saw him grow. Williams is definitely a player to keep on your radar as a potential wide receiver 3 in 12-team leagues next year. In fact, if he has a good offseason you should target him.

Philadelphia Eagles: Can I just say wow! I knew DeSean Jackson had a high salary cap number, but after the season he had last year I was fully expecting the Eagles to extend him or at least have him play it out. Well, in today’s NFL you never know. Don’t get me wrong I know Jackson is tough to deal with, I often compare him to some of the prima-donna strikers you see in the English Premier League, but I didn’t think they would let their second-best player walk.

With Jackson gone the Eagles will feature Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position and Zach Ertz at the tight end position. I don’t think Chip Kelly realizes how much ackson helped the Eagles last year with his ability to make a secondary respect his deep speed, but Kelly will find out quickly if teams are able to stack the box to try and stop LeSean McCoy.

Obviously Cooper and Maclin get a big jump in value with Jackson gone, but the one who may benefit the most is Ertz. Ertz quietly had a very nice rookie campaign as he caught 36 passes for 469 yards and 4 TD’s. Even with Brent Celek getting some of the targets from the tight end position I am moving Zach Ertz up my fantasy rankings. I currently have him 12th before the NFL Draft. Maclin’s return from injury could have been a nice buy-low, but with Jackson leaving you may have to pay a premium to see if Maclin’s knee is really healed. He is currently the 37th wide receiver going off the board in my Fantasy League Drafts. Cooper will be a wide receiver 4 next season with the same volatility he had this year. He’s the perfect guy to take in best ball leagues or to play when you really need a high ceiling play.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins last year featured Pierre Garcon and…..well no one. The thinking was Fred Davis would finally come into his own well…..that didn’t happen. (He is currently suspended from the league indefinitely, oh and making really terrible rap albums.) The Redskins decided to address this lopsidedness in free agency and have been very active in free agency. They signed David Gettis, the former promising wide receiver from the Carolina Panthers. They signed the versatile Andre Robertsfrom the Arizona Cardinals. Roberts can play inside or outside and has always been a bit under rated.

I thought the Redskins may have been done there and assumed Garcon would still get the lion’s share of targets and production, but low and behold Dan Snyder saw Jackson hitting the street and he pulled out that big check book. Jackson had a career year last season with the Eagles with 82 receptions for more than 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. His numbers will probably never come close to those again, but he can still be a useful fantasy wide receiver.

The Redskins’ new head coach, Jay Gruden, is a west coast offense disciple. He will use the tight end, Jordan Reed. He will get the ball out quickly to wide receivers that can run after the catch, Jackson and Garcon profile as excellent west coast wide receivers, and he will will stretch the field with built in deep shots. Gruden’s Bengals last season relied on the deep ball a little too much and I think he will get back to a more ball control offense in Washington. Garcon and Jackson are both wide receiver twos with this move, but with them also sharing the ball with the gifted Jordan Reed I move them down to the bottom of the wide receiver two list. Garcon still holds more value for me in PPR leagues and I would still be comfortable with him as a solid wide receiver two there.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, @Coachesser and connect with me on Facebook. You can also read all of my articles on everything fantasy at Coachesser.com.

Fantasy Football: Pittsburgh Steelers’ WRs ADP

The Pittsburgh Steelers are known for their Super Bowl titles and their rabid towel waving fan base. During the Bill Cowher era they were known as a ground and pound offense that often threw in an ingenious trick play here and there. Mike Tomlin didn’t skip a beat when he took over as head coach for Bill Cowher as he was able to raise another championship banner into the ring of honor. Now five years removed from their last Super Bowl title the Steelers look like a team in transition.

Can you name the last Steelers’ wide receiver besides Hines Ward to have over 80 receptions? (Answer below)

The team had changed its identity under former offensive coordinator Bruce Arians from a ground and pound offense to an all out aerial assault. Deep throws to Mike Wallace were the scare tactic that kept defenses honest, allowing Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace to pick up cheap yardage on quick screens and pick plays. The fact that Big Ben managed to escape pressure with ease only helped mask the eroding skills of the offensive line.

Last year marked another change in offensive philosophy as Mike Tomlin brought in Todd Haley to change the culture of the offense. Todd Haley wanted to reintroduce a running game with play action principals, but early season injuries on the offensive line as well as inconsistent running-back play left the offense without an identity. The shortened offseason could not have hindered Haley and Roethlisberger’s chemistry any more than it did. the only player that seemed to benefit from the chaos was the always over looked Heath Miller. His 71 receptions led the Steelers and his 8 touchdowns helped make him a top six tight end in 2012. Before we get overly excited we should remember the last time we saw him his knee was being torn to shreds and he isn’t currently ready for training camp.

The reason I chose to take a look at the Steelers is because I am constantly faced with a decision on Antonio Brown in the late fifth round of drafts. If I am going to go wide receiver the ADP always suggests Antonio Brown versus Pierre Garcon. If I decide to go running back I can gamble on Shane Vereen or take a sliding rookie like Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball. I usually go with Garcon or Vereen every time. I go with Garcon if my WR2 is a little weak and I go with Vereen if my RB2 is an injury prone guy.

I know, I know I sound like a guy who’s been burned by Antonio Brown before, (and I am!) but after looking at the Steelers offense and his particular skill set I can not justify taking him this early in drafts. First of all he has never topped 70 catches. Yet he is going off the board in every mock like he’s a guaranteed 90 catch guy. He topped 1100 yards in 2011, but scored only 2 touchdowns. The last time I checked those count as six points. (this isn’t Russia is it?)

After breaking down the Steeles offensive film and looking at the current weapons on the roster I see them going back to a run first offense. Heavy doses of LeVeon Bell and Isaac Redman can be expected. Antonio Brown will probably top 75 catches, but his TD total will be between 4-6 and not the 8-10 that we can get later in the draft. He is not a red zone threat and he is not the playmaker that Mike Wallace was. He is a very nice #2 receiver, but that’s the problem with the Steelers. They are full of #2 receivers. Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and the newest addition Markus Wheaten would all be looked at as flankers or slot receivers in most offenses.

I don’t have a problem with #2 receivers. They can be useful fantasy receivers in certain formats and can help a team that is loaded at RB and the onesie positions to fantasy championships. With my draft philosophy banking on drafting quarterbacks and tight ends late, #2 receivers don’t help me all that much. I need the bulk of my lineup (RBs and WRs) to outscore the other guy week in and week out and Antonio Brown is not going to help with that.

The one receiver that may help my team is Emmanuel Sanders. The New England Patriots thought enough of Sanders to try and sign him away from the Steelers in the offseason with a tricky one year deal that the Steelers were forced to match. Sanders will now play out his one year deal as a Steeler with a much bigger role in place. The Steelers’ SBnation page put his excpectations at 70 catches and over 1000 yards. Not a bad return for a wide receiver currently going at the 106th pick in drafts.

Wait did I say 106 overall. That’s gotta be a misprint. Nope it’s confirmed here at www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. That’s right, a receiver that even the Steelers expect to produce those numbers is going a full five rounds later than Antonio Brown.

How can this be? Why the disparity in ADP?

I’ll tell you why. The fantasy football world is a thick headed bunch. Everyone and their mother thought Antonio Brown was going to explode last year and when he came up short people chalked it up using every excuse in the book. The list is long, the short training camp, the offensive coordinator change, the big contract was weighing on him. I’ve heard it all except the answer that I want to hear. WE WERE WRONG. It happens.

Don’t get me wrong, Antonio Brown is a very good football player, but he will never be a consistent top 20 fantasy wide receiver and will never live up to his 59.8 overall ADP. He is a better football player than Emmanuel Sanders will probably ever be, but if I can get Emmanuel Sanders in the 10th round of a fantasy football draft I will like him a whole lot more than I will like Antonio Brown in the 5th.

Keep this in mind when Antonio Brown comes up as your suggested pick in drafts and please learn from my mistakes.

(Answer-Yancy Thigpen had 85 receptions to go along with 1307 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1995)