Toby Gerhart – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Zero Running Back

There are many strategies that can work when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football leagues in 2014, but one fantasy football draft strategy seems to be really taking hold when people are drafting from the back end of a PPR (point per reception league) draft. The zero running back strategy is taking over expert and amateur fantasy football drafts alike. The importance of the wide receiver position and the ability to avoid potential draft busts with early round picks has taken hold. The question marks at the running back position start right after the top five running backs, while the top six wide receivers are virtually guaranteed to approach their projected statistics.

The FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association) Fantasy Football Leagues recently kicked off their drafts and mine is filled some of my friends from the industry. One of of my friends in the league is Mark Kaplan, @DaTrueGuru, and he is picking from the 10 spot in out twelve team PPR FSWA draft. I noticed his team was avoiding the running back position early in the draft and asked if he would mind sharing his draft strategy and thoughts and he, by some miracle, obliged. I was particularly interested in his thoughts because I have been drafting very similarly from that same spot in leagues and because Mark has done extremely well in the FSWA leagues lately. He even has a 2013 FSWA Fantasy Basketball Championship already under his belt and is currently among the leaders in the Fantasy Baseball Leagues as well.

Here’s Mark’s FSWA Draft Early Draft Strategy from the 10 spot:

The FSWA Insiders draft is a PPR league where we have to start three wide receivers and a flex. That means wide receivers rule the draft, but most people want to take running backs early and often, despite their injury risk and the fact that wideouts easily out produce running backs in PPR leagues. I had the 10th overall pick and knew right away I was going WR/WR because every running back after the first four main guys are all over valued and come with question marks.

Luckily Demaryius Thomas was there for me at 10 and I instantly took the highest scoring WR in PPR leagues last season. Then my boy, Brandon Marshall, was there for my next pick and again, instantly took him. B-Marsh is so reliable and is basically a guarantee to get 100 receptions (has done that in two straight seasons). Just like that, I have two players that should each get me 300 points.

Now the tough decisions start. With my third pick, I was staring at some very questionable running backs like Reggie Bush (J. Bell was already gone and just not a fan of Bush), Rashad Jennings (has never been the #1 guy before), Frank Gore (means I would have to reach on Carlos Hyde in a few rounds,so would basically be spending 2 picks on one RB), Ben Tate(injury concerns). That is a road I wanted to avoid. Julius Thomas was there as well, but not only is he overrated (had only 65 catches last season), there are also a lot of other TE’s I like rounds 8-10 that I’d rather draft at their value, than draft Thomas in the third round. Therefore, I was going to target a wide receiver, but which one? I was choosing between Andre Johnson (who was ranked 96th for some unknown reason), Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, and Pierre Garcon. I ended up going with Andre Johnson because he’s an elite wide receiver (finished 10th overall among WRs last season and has played in 16 games in each of the past two season). When it gets back to me, J. Thomas, Cruz, Jennings, and Bush are gone and I’m faced with the decision again: reach on a questionable running back, like T. Gerhart or B.Tate, or take another elite WR. Decided to go WR for the fourth time, this time was deciding between Keenan Allen and Garcon. It was basically coin flip and decided I like the upside of Allen so went with him.

Now my starting roster is set with four wideouts that should all produce 270 plus fantasy points this season (there were only five running backs last season that reached 270 fantasy points and one of those guys was Knowshon Moreno). Instead of taking running backs that might produce in the third or fourth round, I loaded up on great wideouts. What about running backs? Well there are going to be plenty of guys in the fifth and sixth round that have just as much upside and question marks as the guys in the third or fourth rounds like Fred Jackson, Pierre Thomas, Baltimore RBs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, Chris Johnson, to name a few. Now, I will be taking running backs the rest of the draft (besides getting a QB and a TE). But here’s the thing, all I need is one of my late round running backs to emerge as a #1, out of all of the ones I will end up taking, to be almost unstoppable. If I can get 10-13 points from each of my running backs (which isn’t hard to get in a PPR league) I end up taking, then my team will be extremely successful.

I want players that are consistent and will put up points, despite what position they play. Instead of reaching on a running back that might get me 200-220 points, I’d gladly take the wide receiver that is going to score 270 points. The objective is to score the most points each week, not build a pretty looking roster, and by going with four wide receivers to start the draft, I’m on my way to scoring a plethora of points of every week.

**I want to thank Mark for taking the time to do a guest post for me and implore anyone who enjoys fantasy sports to give him a follow on twitter, @DaTrueGuru**

Editor’s Note- Check out this interview for the Fantasy Sports Network featuring Michael Salfino talking about Zero Running Back

For more great Fantasy Football content check out the latest episodes of The Fantasy Coach Podcast and check out The Fantasy Football Black Book 2014 Edition.

Robert Turbin Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

Dynasty owners who were stubborn with their investment in Toby Gerhart look like they will finally reap the rewards in 2014. Gerhart is out from behind the enormous shadow of the all-world Adrian Peterson in Minnesota and is poised to be the main ball carrier and running back option out of the backfield for the Jacksonville Jaguars. While, Gerhart patiently waited for his chance to shine, many dynasty owners had given up on him even though he put up very respectable numbers when given the chance for the Vikings.

Robert Turbin owners are in an even tougher situation in Seattle. Not only is Turbin behind the rock-steady Marshawn Lynch, but he has the next Adrian Peterson, Christine Michael, leaving tread marks on him as he flies past him on the depth chart. I have seen some Turbin owners become disillusioned with his future prospects when all they ever hear is how good Christine Michael is going to be. I’m here to say stay strong brothers of Turbin ownership.

You are going to have to play the long game with Robert Turbin. Turbin is signed cheaply though the 2015 season in Seattle, and is too valuable to the Seahawks as a pass catching option, who can pass protect. While those skills are appreciated in Seattle, they may be even more appreciated somewhere else in 2016.

What does Turbin have going for him in 2016?

There are a ton of 27 year old and older starting running backs in the league right now.

Photo credit: Getty images

Jamaal Charles 27

Matt Forte 28

Adrian Peterson 29

Marshawn Lynch 28

Chris Johnson 28

Ryan Mathews 27

Toby Gerhart 27

Reggie Bush 29/ Joquie Bell 27

Rashad Jennings 29

Maurice Jones-Drew 29

Frank Gore 31

Pierre Thomas 29

Arian Foster 27

Steven Jackson 30

Ray Rice 27

Not only are there a ton of older running backs at the back end of their productivity, but there are a couple of teams that are unsettled at the position.

Patriots- Is Ridley over his fumbling issues? Can Shane Vereen make it through a season healthy?

Cardinals- Can Andre Ellington carry the load?

Dolphins- Knowshon Moreno is probably a stop gap if he even starts. Lamar Miller has not shown mcuh in his two seasons.

Redskins- Does Alfred Morris fit the new offense? Are Lache Seastrunk or Roy Helu able to be three down backs?

Robert Turbin will be 26 as an unrestricted free agent in 2016 when NFL teams may just be primed to pick up a young veteran who can play all three downs.

Turbin is a very strong and talented running back. He just happens to be joined in the Seahawks backfield with two studs. Here’s a highlight video of his rookie season from YouTube. Careful it’s NSFW. Watch without sound if you are at work or offended by curse words in songs.

Turbin’s size and speed stack up well against two running backs in Carolina, that he could eventually replace. Here’s a chart from MockDraftable.com that shows his Combine Stats and how they rate against other running backs.

One more thing he’s got going for him, that actually means next to nothing in football skill terms, is he has the biggest biceps on a running back since Thomas Jones or Eric Bieniemy.

Things that are not in his favor:

-Robert Turbin does not have the pedigree that Toby Gerhart did coming into the NFL. Gerhart was a Heisman Trophy runner up, to Mark Ingram, and won the Doak Walker award as the best running back in the country his senior year at Stanford University. Turbin was a small school running back, Utah State, and was drafted 106th overall in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Where you’re picked and where you went to school don’t matter after you’re in the league, but if you don’t shine in your chances and really create an impression that you’re an NFL starter caliber running back then you have an uphill battle when it comes to getting a chance to start in free agency.

-The 2015 NFL draft class looks like it will be loaded with talent at the running back position. While running backs may not ever go as high as Trent Richardson just a few years ago, they still dominate from the second round on as NFL teams try to stack talent in their backfields.

Karlos Williams Florida State

Todd Gurley Georgia

TJ Yeldon Alabama

Melvin Gordon Wisconsin

and at least for or five more backs that could be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.

-There are young backs behind some of the old guard around the NFL that may be able to step into a lead back role.

KC-Knile Davis

CHI-Ka’Deem Carey

NYG-Andre Williams or David Wilson

BLT-Lorenzo Taliferro or Bernard Pierce

SD- Marion Grice

ATL-Devonta Freeman

SF-Carlos Hyde

My Final Thoughts on Robert Turbin’s dynasty fantasy football outlook:

I’m not trying to sell you on the fact that Robert Turbin will eventually be a top ten fantasy football back in any format. I’m just trying to sell you on the fact that there is an opportunity in Turbin’s future to become a valuable piece in your dynasty fantasy football team. I think he’s more talented then Rashad Jennings and Jennings looks to have grabbed the starting job in New York, at least for the time being, and he’s younger and more talented then some running backs that other people have ranked ahead of him.

So…..if Turbin happens to be dropped in your dynasty league scoop him up and carve out a nice spot on your bench that may pay off decent dividends in 2016. If you can sneakily include him in a potential trade acquisition where you are set up at the running back position for the next two years then do it!