Washington Redskins – The Fantasy Sports Coach

NFC East Wide Receiver Movement

NFC East Free Agency and Wide Receiver Movement

New York Giants: The Giants let Hakeem Nicks walk this off season and brought back an old Super Bowl hero as a sort-of replacement. The Giants had no designs on keeping Hakeem Nicks in the fold so it came as no surprise when he signed a prove-it deal with the Indianapolis Colts. Nicks’ declining health and skills wore on the Giants’ brass and fans alike. His Fantasy Football stock is at an all-time low even being paired with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, in Andrew Luck.

The sort-of replacement is none other than Mario Manningham. The Giants former third-round pick is back after spending two injury-plagued years in San Francisco. While having Manningham back in the fold feels nice as a fan of the Giants, I don’t expect him to start or to be an asset in Fantasy Football next season. Instead of replacing Hakeem Nicks on the Giants’ roster he is essentially replacing Louis Murphy, who had a very forgettable tenure with Big Blue.

The Giants should and probably will look to fill the void Hakeem Nicks’ exit has created by starting Rueben Randle and getting Jerrel Jernigan more involved in the offense. I do look for the Giants to draft an outside wide receiver this year, and could even see them taking Mike Evans if he ever fell to them. If Evans doesn’t fall to the Giants at 12 there will be a lot of talent at the wide receiver position available at their slot in the second round. Davante Adams or Donte Moncrief would be excellent second round picks.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have had a quiet off season as they are right up against the cap and have done some foolish things with their money lately. While Dez Bryantdidn’t quite take the leap to 1B to Calvin Johnson’s 1A as a fantasy wide receiver as many thought he might, he did put up solid numbers last season. Ninety-three receptions for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, but did leave some fantasy owners wanting.

The lack of a clear cut second option in the passing game hurt Dez Bryant last season.Jason Witten was another year older, and slower, and Miles Austin once again spent most of the season rehabbing his forever-pulled hamstrings. The only bright spot was they appeared to hit on their third round pick in Terrance Williams from Baylor. Williams had 44 receptions for over 700 yards and 5 TD’s in a rookie campaign that saw him grow. Williams is definitely a player to keep on your radar as a potential wide receiver 3 in 12-team leagues next year. In fact, if he has a good offseason you should target him.

Philadelphia Eagles: Can I just say wow! I knew DeSean Jackson had a high salary cap number, but after the season he had last year I was fully expecting the Eagles to extend him or at least have him play it out. Well, in today’s NFL you never know. Don’t get me wrong I know Jackson is tough to deal with, I often compare him to some of the prima-donna strikers you see in the English Premier League, but I didn’t think they would let their second-best player walk.

With Jackson gone the Eagles will feature Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position and Zach Ertz at the tight end position. I don’t think Chip Kelly realizes how much ackson helped the Eagles last year with his ability to make a secondary respect his deep speed, but Kelly will find out quickly if teams are able to stack the box to try and stop LeSean McCoy.

Obviously Cooper and Maclin get a big jump in value with Jackson gone, but the one who may benefit the most is Ertz. Ertz quietly had a very nice rookie campaign as he caught 36 passes for 469 yards and 4 TD’s. Even with Brent Celek getting some of the targets from the tight end position I am moving Zach Ertz up my fantasy rankings. I currently have him 12th before the NFL Draft. Maclin’s return from injury could have been a nice buy-low, but with Jackson leaving you may have to pay a premium to see if Maclin’s knee is really healed. He is currently the 37th wide receiver going off the board in my Fantasy League Drafts. Cooper will be a wide receiver 4 next season with the same volatility he had this year. He’s the perfect guy to take in best ball leagues or to play when you really need a high ceiling play.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins last year featured Pierre Garcon and…..well no one. The thinking was Fred Davis would finally come into his own well…..that didn’t happen. (He is currently suspended from the league indefinitely, oh and making really terrible rap albums.) The Redskins decided to address this lopsidedness in free agency and have been very active in free agency. They signed David Gettis, the former promising wide receiver from the Carolina Panthers. They signed the versatile Andre Robertsfrom the Arizona Cardinals. Roberts can play inside or outside and has always been a bit under rated.

I thought the Redskins may have been done there and assumed Garcon would still get the lion’s share of targets and production, but low and behold Dan Snyder saw Jackson hitting the street and he pulled out that big check book. Jackson had a career year last season with the Eagles with 82 receptions for more than 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. His numbers will probably never come close to those again, but he can still be a useful fantasy wide receiver.

The Redskins’ new head coach, Jay Gruden, is a west coast offense disciple. He will use the tight end, Jordan Reed. He will get the ball out quickly to wide receivers that can run after the catch, Jackson and Garcon profile as excellent west coast wide receivers, and he will will stretch the field with built in deep shots. Gruden’s Bengals last season relied on the deep ball a little too much and I think he will get back to a more ball control offense in Washington. Garcon and Jackson are both wide receiver twos with this move, but with them also sharing the ball with the gifted Jordan Reed I move them down to the bottom of the wide receiver two list. Garcon still holds more value for me in PPR leagues and I would still be comfortable with him as a solid wide receiver two there.

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Fantasy Football: Redskins Run Game Problems

While many fantasy football “experts” preached that they expected a drop off from Alfred Morris this year, none expected it to be caused by game situations. The expected statistical correction was supposed to be because of his limited talent and the fact that Robert Griffin III would be the focal point of the offense, if he was healthy. Alfred Morris has 56 carries for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns through the first four games of the Redskins’ season. That’s good for a 5.3 average and he has even had (3) 20+ yard runs which is better than Doug Martin, Arian Foster, and Jamal Charles combined. The main thing holding Alfred Morris back from being a sophomore fantasy star is the the Washington Redskins’ horrid defense.

In fantasy terms the Redskins are close to as bad as it gets on defense. They give up the 4th most fantasy points to QBs, RBs, and WRs. That’s hard to do. They are literally horrible at every level. Even the old stalwart London Fletcher finds himself not being able to play like his old self. As of today Fletcher is rated 49th out of 50 rated ILBs by Pro Football Focus. The news doesn’t get much better when you talk about the guys that are supposed to be protecting Fletcher as Kedric Golston and Stephen Bowen are rated 38th and 42nd respectively out of 44 defensive ends by Pro Football Focus.

The fact that the Redskins have been down a combined 81-31 at the half through their first four games is a huge reason that Alfred Morris has not been able to get the touches in the running game. His high carry total of 16 carries is not what you’re looking for from a non-pass catching RB1. Nobody was buying Morris as a PPR monster, but he used to make up the difference by rushing the ball at least 20 times a game. From watching the tape you could see that Morris isn’t even trusting his running instincts as he tries to make a big play when his old down-hill running self would have made a solid run.

For example- Early in the first quarter against the Raiders, the Redskins had a chance at a big play in the running game. What you can’t see in the picture is that the Raiders had rolled the strong safety up to blitz on the strong side of the formation. The free safety is 20+ yards deep and the middle of the defense is exposed. The Redskins run a zone/stretch to the weak side and should be able to find a hole in the middle.

Alfred Morris presses the weak side and looks for a cut back lane from the Center’s right butt cheek and out. Logan Paulsen is able handle his defensive end one on one and keep him from squeezing down. A huge hole develops off the right side of the offensive line.

Morris’s eyes drift toward breaking it all the way back to the back side of the play instead of continuing to run down hill and hit the huge chasm that develops on the right side of the line. This play was helped by some very poor linebacker play by the Raiders as the SAM backer gets frozen by looking in the backfield at RG3.

When Morris finally sees the hole he tries to cut back to the middle of the field, but trips over his tight end and is stopped for a four yard gain. Instead of a first and ten at around mid-field you end up in a third and long. I believe this is an example of Morris pressing to make plays in the running game because he knows he is not going to get as many chances as he did last year.

RG3 has not helped matters by misfiring as a passer early in games. He is both shaky as a passer and a runner so far this season early in games. Another example of Griffin’s rust showed up early in the Raiders game.

RG3 lines up in the pistol with the fullback lined up to the weakside of the formation. The Redskins run a zone read with RG3 reading the SAM backer. If the backer ducks under the block of the fullback to take Morris RG3 keeps the ball and runs around the vacated space. If the backer comes up the field then he can give the ball to Morris for a big gainer.

The SAM backer takes Morris and RG3 has a chance to run the ball. So far so good as the blocking is excellent by the LT and TE.

Here’s where I have a problem with RG3 the QB right now. The play works to perfection, but it still needs to be executed. Griffin pulls the ball and immediately breaks for the sideline without looking at the vacated area of the backer. If he did, he would have seen that his fullback has leverage on his block and he would have an easy eight yards before he is touched. Instead of running through a hole big enough to fit a tractor-trailer he decides to run to the outside. I’m not sure he has great instincts as a runner (runningback instincts, not track instincts), but last year he would have turned this up the field. I think he is a little afraid to get into the danger areas.

I also see this as a quarterback who is trying to do too much. The entire organization is relying on him. The defense that the Redskins put on the field each and every week puts this young quarterback in a very difficult situation. If the Redskins could find a way to stick to the running game and not put so much pressure on Griffin I think they could get back to their league leading ways, but if the defense continues to get gashed this offense will not be able to put up the fantasy football numbers we all expected. I still like both Morris and Griffin long term, but game flow is going to continue to be a big hindrance on their fantasy output.