Wilin Rosario – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Garbage Picking
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Garbage Picking

Fantasy Baseball

Garbage Picking

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Watch

Fantasy Baseball owners are as bad as toddlers when it comes to patience. They want the results now and two bad starts or two tough weeks at the plate is just too much for them to take. They’ll jump ship before a distress signal has even been sent. Leagues with limited or no DL slots make this time of year exciting to watch the drop section of your league’s transaction log. Remember it’s always better to take the bad end of a trade then drop a potential asset. No matter what I say or do I will never change the average owner, so I have to just sit back and garbage pick through their drops.

Leonys Martin owners haven’t had a lot to smile about so far.

Erik Johnson- Chicago White Sox- Starting Pitcher

Johnson had a lot of helium in early drafts before Alex Wood and Yordano Ventura stole all the pre-draft hype. Through his first two starts Johnson looked like he was going to prove that his draft stock deserved to be falling by looking very hittable. Those who dropped him may be kicking themselves after watching him dominate the Red Sox lineup yesterday to the tune of 9 strike outs in 6 and a 1/3 innings. Johnson is a fringe pitcher in 12 team mixed, but is a must roster in any larger leagues. His strike out upside is just better than what you probably have at the bottom of your rosters.

Dexter Fowler- Houston Astros – Center Fielder

Fowler started out of the gates hot and owners were patting themselves on the back just like last year that they took him late in drafts, but an illness has really sapped Fowler for the last few weeks and owners are starting to panic. He has been dropped in a ton of leagues for streaming types like David Murphy or Dayan Viciedo and that was a mistake. I am not a huge fan of Fowler. I’m not one of these guys that think he will all of a sudden put it all together and be a premier outfielder. (some people actually believe that.) I think he’s a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder to have who can fill power and speed categories when you’re in a pinch. He should be rostered in in all 12 team mixed leagues with at least 5 bench spots.

Kyle Seager- Seattle Mariners- Third Baseman

Seager is off to another slow start this year. Last season he was dropped almost everywhere in 12 team mixed leagues only to see him become a valuable asset down the stretch. He no longer holds second base eligibility, but third base isn’t the deepest position in the league. With players like Moustakas, Sandoval, Lawrie and Freese struggling and Middlebrooks and Beltre hurting it makes hanging on to Seager that much harder. The reason I say harder is because owners see third-baseman like Marcus Semien and Trevor Plouffe flying off the waiver wire while they sit on their hands. I believe owners should just keep Seager on the bench if they can. He’s too valuable as a third-baseman that has the ability to hit 20+ homers and steal 10 bases.

Khris Davis-Milwaukee Brewers-Left Fielder

Davis being dropped is an example of expectations being too high in the fantasy draft process. People were punting homers in the middle of their drafts thinking they were going to grab Davis late and get a potential 25-30 homer guy. That is a lot to ask of a young player. I still like Davis a lot, but I wasn’t banking on him as my steady 3rd Outfielder. Don’t cut bait on Davis just yet, unless there’s something crazy on the waiver wire. Keep him on your bench until he gets his feet under him and starts to get better pitches to hit. In leagues of 14 or bigger I wouldn’t think of dropping him yet. The Jason Kubel’s of the world will always be there to pick up if Davis is still struggling in a month or two.

Leonys Martin-Texas Rangers- Center Fielder

Martin is caught up in the downward spiral that is the Texas Rangers. The injuries to the pitching staff and lineup have lumped a lot of pressure on players that aren’t used to shouldering it. Martin’s spot in the lineup was always going to keep his numbers somewhat down, but he has gotten off to much slower start than I would have thought. He’s got zero extra base hits and only two steals so I can understand the frustration. Martin is another one I am holding on to with all my might and I’m even trying to target as a secondary throw in in trades. When the Rangers get healthy and the heat picks up in Texas I expect Martin to break out.

Some studs that I have seen or heard hit the waiver wire. Allen Craig (Dan Strafford just told me about this one), Wilin Rosario, and David Ortiz.

Some other guys people might be losing patience for that you should pick up. Brett Lawrie, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Billy Butler and Xander Bogaerts. I wish I played in more leagues where they hit the wire!

Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft

Swag-Diamond Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Recap and Analysis

7- Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B $41 Encarnacion was one of my main targets in this auction. Starting only 3 Outfielders and adding a Corner-Infielder spot makes Encarnacion a nice option instead of blowing your entire budget on Mike Trout ($57) or Andrew McCutchen (who went to @naapsterman for only $45). I was in on McCutchen, but once it went to 45 I backed off. Encarnacion ended up going for the same as Chris Davis and $5 dollars cheaper than Paul Goldschmidt.

15- Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS $31 Obviously I am gambling on health with Tulowitzki, but who aren’t you gambling with health when it comes to the top Short Stops. Hanley Ramirez ($38) isn’t exactly Super Man and Jose Reyes (only $19 to Ryan Forbes who had a great auction) is, well Jose Reyes. I had Tulow as a $30 player so one extra wasn’t a huge deal.

45 Jose Bautista, Tor OF $24 Bautista was my biggest target in this auction. In 5 x 5 with OB% instead of BA% he can be huge. I was hoping to get him for $22 and went to $24 which was one below my $25 dollar rating.

54 Justin Upton, Atl OF $7 All I can say is everyone fell asleep on this one. I only threw out a $7 bid because there didn’t look to be to much action and I didn’t exactly want him, but I wouldn’t mind making someone else pay for him. By getting him for only $7 dollars it opened me up to spend a little more at other spots.

57 Justin Verlander, Det SP $21 Verlander was my #4 Starting Pitcher before the injuries to Darvish and Kershaw and now he is a much tighter 3B. His price was scoffed at a bit, but then Strasburg went for $33 and Scherzer, Wainwright and Sale all went for $26, Verlander’s price didn’t look all that bad.

89 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B $9 Oh boy did I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar on this one. I was hoping some of my fellow owners would be bidding him up on the account of his strong spring and of course when I thought someone would go to $10 they stuck me with him for $9. Moustakas was a $5 player in my ratings and I almost doubled that up.

90 Wilin Rosario, Col C $19 Rosario is a target of mine everywhere. I overpaid for him here, but when I looked at the Catchers that were available after he was put up, there was no one that could come close to what he brings. He ended up costing the same as Joe Mauer and was 6 and 5 dollars less than Santana and Posey, respectively.

94 Jered Weaver, LAA SP $12 Another one where I got caught bidding up. I was hoping some people would be desperate for starting pitching and paying for past performance, but $12 was not a bad price for Weaver. FantasyPros actually has him rated for $12 and I have him as a $10 SP in Mixed Leagues so I’m not too upset.

104 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS $9 I needed a middle infielder with some pop and Hardy was the guy. His BA% doesn’t matter here and his counting numbers are nice for the MI spot. I still over paid (by at least 3-4 dollars) in a mixed league setting, but I didn’t like what was left on the board.

126 Alex Gordon, KC OF $12 Huge OB% advantage and I get him at a discount?! I don’t know why people are sleeping on Gordon this year, but I’m not concerned as I picked him up everywhere. I got a $8 discount according to FantasyPros and he was $8 cheaper than Hunter Pence who is a very similar player.

143 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP $16 We need to start two relief pitchers and Rosenthal was the last of my upper-tier closers left. I spent a little more than I wanted (I have him at $12) but I had extra money to spend.

146 R.A. Dickey, Tor SP $6 R.A. could be one of those injury bounce back players, but I only wanted him at the right price with his high WHIP so $6 was perfect.

147 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B $8 Moustakas was not going to be the thirdbaseman I was going to bank on and Sandoval was a nice back-up/starter plan for around the same price. I wanted to only spend $7 on him, but $8 wasn’t out of the question.

165 Andrew Cashner, SD SP $8 Cashner was a big target for me. (no pun intended with his height) With Wins not being a category Cashner is equal to a lot of the bigger name pitchers available and he can always work on getting his K-rate up.

166 Sergio Romo, SF RP $6 Not bad for my 2nd RP. I had Romo as an $8 closer and again I get some value. He’s in my top ten so there’s that as well.

183 Christian Yelich, Mia OF $3 Yelich is a player who i hope gets off to a fast start. He’s a bit of a post-hype sleeper because he was last year’s version of George Springer. A guy with power and speed who could be a huge fantasy player in the future. I’m not confident that future is now, but if he starts fast the $3 investment could pay dividends in a trade.

196 Danny Salazar, Cle SP $8 Salazar was a must because I needed to add K’s after getting Weaver and Cashner. Salazar has top of the rotation strike-out stuff, but I think people are over-paying in redraft leagues. $8 is not bad and is actually below where i had him rated.

200 Austin Jackson, Det OF $4 Huge discount alert. Some people were running out of money and I picked up a steal in Jackson at $4. FantasyPros has him rated at $16 and I have him just below that at $15. So excited about this buy.

203 Clay Buchholz, Bos SP $3 With a DL spot available he is definitely worth the gamble. When healthy he is top of the rotation stuff and when he’s hurt he’s on the DL. I recently heard Eno Sarris say the very same thing and it’s always good to have someone reassure you. Cueto went for $6 and he’s the same injury gamble. Great when healthy and when he’s hurt you DL him.

209 Marco Estrada, Mil SP $3 I really like the Strike out upside and I didn’t want to overpay for him in a room of experts. $3 was perfect for me as I had him rated as a $6 SP.

213 Brian Dozier, Min 2B $5 Bit of an overpay here, but I needed him because I had missed out out Gyorko to TraderX for $16. I couldn’t go that high and now Dozier was my position punt. Not that bad a punt though with his ability to go 20/15.

222 Adam Eaton, CWS OF $3 This late in the auction strategy came to the forefront. I knew some of my other friends in the league wanted Eaton and their max bid left was $3, so I threw out an opening bid of $3 dollars on an outfielder that people want and they were stuck letting him go to me. If he doesn’t end up in my starters maybe I can package him for a new 2B option.

256 Taijuan Walker*, Sea SP $2 I had $2 left and I had a DL spot to use so Taijuan Walker was a nice lottery ticket to get this late. I would much rather have him sitting on my DL then spend $2 on Danny Haren or any other former decent fantasy pitcher.

The Worst Over Pays

Ben Zobrist for $25 – that was just crazy because his number have been declining for the last few years and you can’t pay a premium just on flexibility.

Yu Darvish for $36 – It’s never a good strategy to over pay for a stud Starting Pitcher and this case was no different. His neck issues aside this was at least $8 too much for me.

Billy Hamilton for $21 – I know the hype train is in full effect, but this is still a ONE-Category guy that should not be going in the same price range as Matt Holiday or Alex Rios.

Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg for a combine $72 – I don’t mean to pick on my good buddy Ricky Sanders here, but these were two overpays for me. Sometimes you get caught up in the auction with your eyes focused on your targets and you blow your budget because of it. It caught up to him at the end of the draft as his depth took a hit.

The Best Buys

Nolan Arenado for $1 – One dollar price tag was a little soul crushing for me as I paid a combined $17 for Panda and Moustakas. I really like Arenado this year and I would have been a lot happier if I went Panda and Arenado and saved the Moustakas money to get Gyorko at 2B.

Austin Jackson for $4 – This guy score a ton of runs and he will steal bases. His OB% is not ideal for an OB% league, but he is still worth at least 4x the cost. I won’t even count the Upton buy because there was a lot of chatter in the message box when that was going on. Distracted everyone.

Hisashi Iwakuma for $8 – Renee Miller picked up a nice injury steal here by getting the excellent Iwakuma for below market value. I have Iwakuma as a $15 pitcher and would have loved to get him, but Renee made a great buy.

Aroldis Chapman for $5 – This was a really smart buy considering he will still pitch for at least 17 weeks of the season. He cost the same as Booby Parnell who could lose his job the first month of the season.

Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

Through the first few of my actual money drafts of 2014 the same players keep sliding in drafts. Many of these undervalued players have already become roster magnets for me and I really can’t complain based on past performance or the 2014 projections I have on these players. So without further adieu these are some players you should target when they start to fall.

Wilin Rosario-Catcher-Colorado Rockies

Rosario is one of the only catchers in the league that has 30 homer potential, yet he continues to slide in drafts. In leagues that only start one catcher and are smaller than 14 teams i don’t tend to worry too much about drafting the position unless there becomes a clear “value win” or I feel the catcher run is in full swing. It’s a lot like dealing with a one quarterback league that doesn’t weigh touch down passes as six points in fantasy football. After the first few catchers it’s pretty much fantasy league average through catcher 14 in my rankings. Rosario is the only one in my high-mid catcher rankings that I tend to target because of the home run potential. If you see your team is slipping in that category in Roto-style or if Home Runs count as 5 points in your points league then don’t miss out on this guy. You can find his current ADP at Fantasy Pros Here.

Justin Verlander-Starting Pitcher-Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is a stud. Instead of remembering his up and down season from last year try and remember how dominant he was in the playoffs. (23 Innings – 1 Run – 31 Strikeouts) Those are the numbers that get you excited about owning Justin Verlander and those are the numbers that are going to make him a draft steal this year. He is regularly going behind last year’s rookie phenom Jose Fernandez in drafts and that’s just not right. I have Verlander ranked right in my top 5 and have no fears at all about his perceived regression last year. Don’t let him last too long in your drafts because you will be sorry. Go to Fantasy Pros here for his current ADP across all sites.

Kyle Seager-Third Base-Seattle Mariners

Last year it was tough to own any Mariners besides King Felix (Felix Hernandez) and be happy about it, but Kyle Seager quietly had a very good year and he did it with multiple position eligibility in some formats. This year people seem to have forgotten that Seager showed pop (22 homers) and even some decent wheels (9 stolen bases). Seager has even more value in leagues that start a corner infielder, but in leagues that start a traditional lineup he can be the ideal first player on your bench or utility player. Instead of going in the low to mid 70s he is regularly available in the ealry 100s in drafts and I seem to be picking him off constantly. Go here to see his current ADP across all sites.

Hunter Pence-Out Fielder-San Francisco Giants

All Hunter Pence did last year was put up solid numbers in almost every category (.283-27 HRs-99RBIs-22SBs) and yet during drafts this year he continues to be over looked constantly. I know people always like their new shiny toys, but Billy Hamilton over Hunter Pence has happened far too often. I know his swing is ugly, but you don’t actually have to watch every at bat of your second fantasy outfielder. Seriously I can’t think of any reason he should slide this low (current ADP) unless it’s purely on aesthetics or latent antisemitism.