Zach LaVine – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Fantasy Basketball: Rookies Fighting For Minutes

Two weeks ago I went over the rookies that were the best fit for their respective organizations and talked about how they might fare in their rookie season. This week I will talk about some draftees that will be fighting for minutes in a rotational role that could see them having occasional daily fantasy value and or spot start value in deeper fantasy basketball leagues. Most of these rookies that I will discuss could still be affected by trades and or late signings in free agency.

Aaron Gordon: Orlando Magic 4th Pick- Aaron Gordon was a bit of a surprise with the fourth overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Gordon was looked at as a bit of a raw prospect that could go off the board from the 6th to 10th pick of the first round, but instead found himself picked by a young rebuilding Magic team. Many fantasy basketball players were hoping the Magic would finally hand the keys to the power forward spot over to Tobias Harris full-time, but it looks like Harris will once again be a part of a rotation with the athletically gifted Gordon. Gordon was touted for his explosive athleticism in the draft process, but his shaky shooting, including from the free throw line, had him as a bit of an offensive project. He will have to learn how to contribute on the defensive end if he’s going to get big minutes, but his speed and ability to finish in transition could have him carving out a role off the bench fairly early.

Marcus Smart: Boston Celtics 6th Pick- Many basketball fans believe that Marcus Smart cost himself a lot of money by going back to school after his stellar season in 2012 at Oklahoma State. While that may be true as he found himself in the middle of one of the strongest draft classes in recent memory in 2014, he still managed to become a lottery pick with a team that has a history of building winners. Smart brings a ton of fight and leadership when he’s on the floor. He can make his teammates better and should be one of the better defenders in the league right away. He has excellent hands with a strong frame that allows him to body up point guards or shooting guards. Smart should be in the back court rotation right away and could even see some time on the court with Rajon Rondo. He needs to become a better shooter if he wants to really grab big minutes and you should keep an eye on his efficiency.

Nik Stauskas: Sacramento Kings 8th Pick- Stauskas was billed as the best shooter in this draft with a superior competitiveness that should see him become a valuable member of an NBA rotation right away. Stauskas found himself taken by a team that drafted a shooting guard just last year. Stauskas will be in a training camp and preseason fight for shooting guard minutes with Ben McLemore. The two of them may also have some competition from Marshon Brooks who played well with Sacramento’s summer league team. Stauskas has an edge on both shooting guards as he is a better shooter in both catch and shoot situations and when he is forced to handle the basketball.

Noah Vonleh: Charlotte Hornets 9th Pick- Vonleh looked to be the late riser of the 2014 NBA draft as analysts started projecting him as high as the 3rd overall pick in the days leading up to the draft. His enormous wingspan and nice outside touch had scouts and GM’s dreaming about two or three years down the road and the possibility of a super star on the lower blocks. The Charlotte Hornets finally lucked out in a draft as Vonleh fell all the way to the ninth overall pick to a team that had their best season in recent memory. The Hornets lost Josh McRoberts in free agency to the Miami Heat so Vonleh will at least get a portion of those minutes if he can provide energy and defense off of the bench. I believe he will see more early minutes than Cody Zeller saw last season and should be looked at as a late round flier in redraft leagues.

Zach LaVine: Minnesota Timberwolves 13th Pick- LaVine is a 6’6″ combo guard who can jump out of the gym and shoot from deep. He’s skinny and didn’t play a ton last season at UCLA, but could see minutes early in Minny if does indeed trade away Kevin Love. If Love stays then I doubt we see much of LaVine until the latter parts of the season, but if Love is moved I think the Timberwolves may try to get him some run and see what pieces they will want to move forward with. I like LaVine a lot more in dynasty leagues than redraft leagues this year.

T.J. Warren: Phoenix Suns 15th Pick- Warren is slashing scorer from the wing who can contribute right away on the offensive end of the court. He has all the tools to be a solid wing defender, but asking rookies to take on too much responsibility can lead to disaster and the Suns are ready to compete right now. I expect Warren to see run fairly early and would love if the Suns eventually moved either Marcus Morris or P.J. Tucker. Warren has ton of scoring potential for dynasty formats and may be a nice late round flier in deeper redraft leagues.

Mitch McGary: Oklahoma City Thunder 21st Pick- McGary was facing a drug suspension at the University of Michigan so he decided to come out for the draft early. Initially I thought it was a mistake and could be one of those cautionary tales you hear year after year, but McGary proved to be NBA rady in the draft process. McGary is big and can run. He should be able to carve out minutes for himself off of the bench for the Thunder and a few years down the road he could end up being one of their key players. He’s an excellent shooter and plays with a ton of energy. I’m going to keep an eye out to see how they intend to rotate their front court to see if he should be on the redraft radar.

Rodney Hood: Utah Jazz 23rd Pick- The Jazz had an excellent draft in 2014. First they got a potential explosive force in Dante Exum with the 5th pick and then they got Hood with the 23rd pick. If Hood had been drafted in any of the previous two to three drafts he would have been a lottery pick. You just don’t find shooters with his wingspan and height every year. This draft just happened to be chock full of talent. Hood still should have gone a bit earlier than he did, but landing in Utah is not a bad spot for him. The Jazz were a poor shooting team from 3 point range last season and their wings failed to be consistent catch and shoot threats. Hood brings and NBA ready three point shot and his size is perfect for the NBA wing.

Damien Inglis: Milwaukee Bucks 1st Pick 2nd Round- The Bucks are the perfect landing spot for Inglis as they have a very unsettled front court. He has a huge wing span (7’3″) on a 6’8″ body and should be able to play on the defensive end of the court right away. He will give you defensive stats right away, but you shouldn’t count on offensive production right away. A nice stash for dynasty leagues. We’ll see if he can evolve into an offensive player.

Nick Johnson: Houston Rockets 12th Pick 2nd Round- I’m not sure why Nick Johnson fell in the 2014 NBA draft, but it looks like the Rockets got an absolute steal in the 2nd round. Johnson was the best player on a very good Arizona team last season. He can shoot it from outside and from the line. He has unbelievable hops on a 6’3″ frame and is an excellent finisher when he drives to the basket. His height made him more of a combo guard and perhaps the metrics said he wouldn’t be able to defend either position in the NBA. I’m just guessing because this is the type of player any fan should want on their team and he has the potential to be a very valuable fantasy asset down the road. He gets a bump with the Rockets clearing cap space and trading away Jeremy Lin to the Lakers as it opens up some minutes off of the bench.

Honorable Mentions:

Gary Harris Jr.: Denver Nuggets

Adreian Payne: Atlanta Hawks

Bruno Caboclo: Toronto Raptor

For my thoughts on the best fits that may play right away go here.

2014 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Outlook

I have to admit I haven’t been this excited about an NBA draft since LeBron was taking his talents to the NBA. The injury to Joel Embiid can’t even dampen my mood. There are players all throughout this draft that are going to be big time dynasty fantasy basketball assets, and a few are going to help people win some fantasy titles this year.

My Top 20 Fantasy Prospects

Andrew Wiggins 6’8″ Kansas Andrew Wiggins is so explosively athletic that it will be tough to not picture him being the best player to come out of this draft. He has an excellent jump shot to go along with his freakish athletic ability and ideal size. He will play the two or the three right away when he gets into the NBA as his game doesn’t need much work even though he is a one and done college prospect. I suggest you make a significant trade offer to get up to the one spot in your dynasty rookie draft to pick Wiggins.

Joel Embiid 7’0″ Kansas Embiid is a bit of a gamble at the second spot in my rankings because of his injury history, but I think he’s going to be worth the gamble. His offensive game grew by leaps and bounds this season as he developed a low post game and a decent mid range jumper to go along with his NBA ready defensive ability. The foot injury that will keep him out for the beginning of the season along with the back injury that cost him his chance to help Kansas win a title will see him slide in your rookie drafts. Don’t let him get past you. There just aren’t enough skilled big men in the game and he could develop into one of the better ones in the entire NBA.

Jabari Parker 6’8″ Duke I would like Parker a whole lot more if he was more athletic and better defensively. Basically Parker is going to score a bunch no matter where he goes. He’s a great shooter who can get to the rim and can shoot off the dribble and on the move. He’s not the best defender and it will be interesting to see which position he ends up guarding on the defensive end of the floor. He’s too small to guard legit fours and may be too big to stick with quicker wing players. Even with all of that you can see him go as high as 1st overall in your rookie drafts because he can score and shoot the 3 with ease.

Julius Randle 6’9″ Kentucky Randle has an issue with his foot that may require surgery and if it does post draft you may see him tumble down some rookie drafts. I wouldn’t let him slip past this spot because of what he can do in the paint. Think Z-Bo lite. Randle is a true power forward who enjoys banging on the block and has the hands and athleticism to finish inside. He probably will be the first from this class to average a double double and could be that source of rebounds your team is lacking.

Dante Exum 6’6″ Australia All I know about Exum is what I have seen on YouTube and on some scouting sites. He is a freakish athlete that is long and can handle the ball. He is an excellent passer and possesses a body that can develop into a huge miss match at the point guard position in the NBA. He may not contribute to your fantasy team year one as he will need a little bit of time to develop, but he could end up being Russell Westbrook-like if he develops as many think he will.

Noah Vonleh 6’10” Indiana Vonleh is another youngster that came out of college early. He is big and fast with long arms and excellent range for such a young big. He could pitch in with some decent numbers as a rookie, but he has an excellent upside as a big that can fill multiple categories.

Aaron Gordon 6’9″ Arizona Gordon is an unfinished product coming out of college, but there are two things he can do really well. He can defend and he can run the floor and finish above the rim. He should be able to contribute in steals, rebounds and the occasional points barrage when he gets in the pen floor, but his real value is down the road if he develops a jumper with some range. He could be Shawn Marion or he could be even better, either way he will help your fantasy team.

Zach LaVine 6’6″ UCLA LaVine is a stash that you’re going to have to reach for. Players with his athleticism and and shooting ability don’t fall in rookie drafts even if they are two seasons away from contributing. I’m excited about his upside, but I may let him go past this spot if I am in a position to win now.

Dario Saric 6’10” Croatia Saric is a stash at this point because he decided to stay in Europe for at least another two years. He would have been a top ten pick in the draft had he decided to make the jump this year, but alas his decision may benefit you as he slides down rookie draft boards. He could develop into one of those bigs that fills almost every category as he already has NBA range on his jump shot.

Marcus Smart 6’3″ Oklahoma State Smart made the headlines for all the wrong reasons this year. He could have been a top five pick if he came out last year, but this year he will end up a big piece on a better team. I think he can be better than Kyle Lowry and we all know what Lowry did this year in fantasy.

Elfrid Payton 6’4″ Louisiana Lafayette Payton has a lot of speed and toughness and can already run and defend at an NBA level. He will have to put on some muscle, but he could be a steal for a fantasy team that needs some youth at the point guard position.

Tyler Ennis 6’3″ Syracuse Ennis would be in the top 5 if he was 6’6″, but instead he’s 6’3″ and will fall in the NBA draft. Ennis is a great passer and floor general who has some range on his shot and can defend. If he develops an NBA 3 point shot he would be a steal down there.

Adreian Payne 6’10” Michigan State Payne can stretch the floor playing the four or the five in the NBA and should be able to defend and rebound right away. I like Payne for all of these reasons, but he could be a guy you might get a little later than here because he lacks ideal athletic upside.

Doug McDermott 6’8″ Creighton Dougie Buckets as he’s known in draft circles is going to be a volume scorer that will help your team in 3P% and FT% while scoring his fair share. I realy like McDermott and am going to target him anywhere I need a boost in threes and in percentages.

Nik Stauskas 6’7″ Michigan Stauskas is arguably the best shooter in this draft and should be a weapon in the NBA right away. I will also try and target him in leagues where I lack three point shooting and where I have some guys bringing down my three point percentages. I would rather take him at the end of the second round ideally in most rookie drafts.

PJ Hairston 6’5″ North Carolina I really wonder where we would be talking about Hairston going in this NBA draft if he didn’t get in trouble at North Carolina. I love his athleticism and his shooting and he has a big strong two guard body that could cause some real match up problems in the NBA. I realy love Hairston and his value could skyrocket if he lands in a really good spot.

James Young 6’8″ Kentucky Young is a really good shooter and is built to play the three in the NBA. Teams love to use long threes that can stretch the floor and hit the corner three while also slashing to the basket and Young can do all of it. He may take some time to develop, but don’t be fooled if he slips in the NBA draft.

Gary Harris 6’5″ Michigan State Harris is going to benefit from being a complete guard that can score and defend at the next level. He should be in for big rookie minutes and will fill lots of categories for your fantasy team. He just doesn’t have the elite upside that others have above him in my rankings. Very solid second round pick though.

Shabazz Napier 6’1″ UCONN Napier is a bit undersized to play the point at an elite level in the NBA and is a bit older for an ideal dynasty pick, but he can score and is a tenacious defender. He should be in line for minutes right away where ever he lands in the draft and if he lands i the right spot he could flourish.

Glen Robinson III 6’7″ Michigan Robinson is a real talent that was a bit of an enigma in college. He can score with his athleticism and can defend when motivated. He needs to work on his jumper, but I don’t see why he can’t fix it at the next level.

Let me know who I missed in the 2014 NBA Draft and what you think either here or on Twitter @Coachesser.

Adreian Payne