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Fantasy Football Week 16

Before I look ahead to the key Week 16 match ups I want to take a look back at who we have to thank for getting us to a championship and who we can blame for virtually ending our seasons.

What a crazy week for quarterbacks.

It was no surprise when Nick Foles topped 400 yards and threw three touchdowns for the Eagles against a banged-up Minnesota Vikings secondary. The big surprise was Matt Cassel keeping pace with more than 380 yards and three combined touchdowns rushing and throwing. Cassel has actually resurrected the fantasy wide receiver life in Minnesota by making Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson attractive flex plays recently.

When I looked at the Arizona Cardinals traveling to Tennessee to play the Titans last week I did not see a game where I would want to start either quarterback. While I was right with Carson Palmer having a pedestrian day, I was way wrong with Ryan Fitzpatrick as he lit up the Cardinals for more than 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. The big takeaway from the game was that Kendall Wright looked healthy again and Delanie Walker was once again a tight end one when he came back in to the lineup.

The Atlanta Falcons versus the Washington Redskins game was actually one where I could see starting either quarterback. The Falcons’ receivers were finally getting healthy and Matt Ryan had looked better of late, but he put up a stinker this week when you compare his output to other quarterbacks around the league. Kirk Cousins on the other hand had the production that we had hoped Robert Griffin III would have put up if he wasn’t shut down for the rest of the season. Cousins not only put up big numbers himself, but got Pierre Garcon back into the conversation as week in and week out must start at wide receiver. Now if only Jordan Reed could get over his concussion symptoms to make that passing attack even better for your fantasy championship.

The two worst performances by quarterbacks who may have featured in some semifinal lineups actually came in the last game of the week. Matthew Stafford looked like he wasn’t quite over the snow game against Philadelphia as he became the poster boy for bad quarterback mechanics against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday. He was dancing around the pocket and throwing the ball sidearm as if he was playing a beach game with his buddies and not playing on Monday Night Football against the World Champions. Joe Flacco on the other hand did his best impression of a quarterback that thinks that field goals are actually better than touchdowns. The Lions have been a nice match up for opposing quarterbacks this year, but that didn’t prove to be the case for Flacco as he failed to hit Torrey Smith regularly and didn’t get Dennis Pitta involved enough.

If you went against Jamaal Charles in the semifinals this week I feel very sorry for you. When you’re going against a player who is having his performance compared to Gale Sayers’ epic six-touchdown game you know you’re in trouble. The funniest thing about his whole day was he wasn’t even the leading rusher on his team. That went to Knile Daviswho finished with only 34 yards, but did score a touchdown.

Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray were unbelievable as they matched up in Dallas. Both ran for more than 130 yards and a touchdown, but it was Lacy and the Packers who came out on top. Who knows how fantasy matchups would have worked out if the Cowboys had actually tried to run the ball instead of throwing two costly interceptions late.

Two running backs who disappointed were the the Giants‘ Andre Brown and New England’s Shane Vereen. While Brown had a tough matchup on paper it actually shouldn’t have been as difficult as the Giants made it look. Teams had been able to run the ball against the Seahawks this year, yet the Giants could not find any running room. TheMiami Dolphins decided to take Vereen away from the New England Patriots and that hurt a lot of fantasy owners. Vereen has been a PPR monster lately, but most likely cost you a trip to the finals with his meager day.

Enough looking back, lets look ahead to this week’s schedule and see who we will be thanking for winning us a championship.

 

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning had his worst day of the season this past week, but he should bounce back against the Houston Texans to solidify his status of fantasy football 2013 MVP.

Nick Foles will most likely be involved in a shoot out against the Chicago Bears this week and I would feel very comfortable with him at the helm. This might actually be the time for me to eat some crow as I have been very reluctant to put Foles over Brees in any of my rankings, but it’s better late than never. Foles is a great play this week. If you have him in your lineup I would be very comfortable.

Did you see Alex Smith throw five touchdowns last week against the Oakland Raiders? Well if you missed it Phillip Rivers might show you an instant replay this week. Rivers and the Chargers should be able to throw the ball all over the field against the Raiders and I just hope the Raiders can make a game of it so that Rivers doesn’t have to take his foot off the gas.

Cousins gets the Dallas Cowboys this week and just in time to possibly win you a championship. While Cousins has a low floor because of his small sample size and questionable receivers, apart from Garcon, he has an extremely high ceiling going against the Cowboys defense.

The last quarterback I would like to have starting this week is Andy Dalton of theCincinnati Bengals. You might be surprised by the fact that Andy Dalton is the tenth ranked fantasy quarterback though week 15. This week he gets to face the Minnesota Vikings in a very important home game and I expect him to put up numbers similar to what Foles put up last week.

[NOTE: If Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play this week he immediately becomes my second-favorite quarterback for this week].

McCoy

 

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy and Charles have carried you this far and they will probably carry you to a championship this week. Both have nice matchups, with McCoy benefiting from facing a terrible Chicago Bears run defense.

While Frank Gore had a very average day last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I expect him to run over and around the Falcons this weekend.

The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys should both feature fantasy running backs who will score a lot of points this weekend when they face each other.Alfred Morris and Murray have each been hot and cold this season, but this weekend should prove to be one of their best days.

If you’re looking for a high-ceiling boom or bust guy I might be willing to put C.J. Spillerback in my lineups this weekend. He hasn’t produced since he ripped the Atlanta Falcons in Toronto, but the Miami Dolphins going into Buffalo might be his chance.

Wide Receivers

What more can I say about Josh Gordon? He is incredible. This week he gets a New York Jets secondary that has been torched all season. It’s no coincidence that when you look at the two teams in any championship game that Gordon will more than likely be on one of the rosters.

I absolutely love A.J. Green this week. He is truly poetry in motion when you watch him play the wide receiver position and he gets a secondary that was exposed by DeSean Jackson last week. Everything points to a huge day for Green.

Jay Cutler is back under center so you know that bodes well for Brandon Marshall. Marshall saw 12 targets last week while his running mate Alshon Jeffrey only saw five.

Demaryius Thomas had a rough week last week, but I think Peyton Manning will want to get him involved early and often against the Houston Texans. I am very confident that we will get an A-typical outing from Demaryius this week.

Injury News and Waiver Wire Advice

Jordan Cameron is going through the concussion protocol after being diagnosed with one on Monday. He is in real danger of missing this week’s game and you should loo to the waiver-wire for reinforcements. The only bad thing is your waiver wire may have been picked clean by the teams that lost Rob Gronkowski or the teams that made pick ups to block the Gronkowski owner from getting a certain tight end.

The main names that should be available in your leagues, and that I would recommend, are:

Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles has become a favorite red zone target for Nick Foles in Philadelphia and has a nice match up this week against the Chicago Bears.

Andrew Quarless of the Green Bay Packers has had back to back nice weeks, but his value would really spike if Aaron Rodgers was able to play this week. I’m not sure I could set a championship lineup with Quarless as my tight end this week.

The big situation I am looking at for a replacement is in Houston where Matt Schaub is back as the signal caller. If Owen Daniels or Garrett Graham are able to go this week than they are my main waiver wire targets.

Larry Fitzgerald suffered a concussion last week, but Bruce Arians expects him to play this week. I wouldn’t be too excited about getting him back in my lineups as he is facing he Seattle Seahawks this week.

Ben Tate of the Houston Texans is headed to IR and it looks like Dennis Johnson will take over at runningback there. I wouldn’t put Johnson in a lineup unless I was desperate because of injuries.

If Maurice Jones-Drew can’t go this week Jordan Todman will actually be someone that I would be excited to have in my lineups. Todman proved that he could handle the load last week as he rushed for more than 100 yards and was very useful in the passing game.

Rueben Randle and Robert Woods could be forced into a feature wide receiver role this week. Randle will have to play in Victor Cruz’s place because of injury while Woods will become the wide receiver one in Buffalo because Stevie Johnson will be in California because of a death in his family.

I just want to thank everyone for reading my fantasy advice this season and hope it helped you win a championship. Let me know which, if any of my recommendations helped you win your home leagues.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football Week 15

Fantasy Football Week 15

Well that was an interesting week of football. A snow-bowl in Philadelphia, a game that had five lead changes in the last two minutes (Minnesota and Baltimore), and another Tom Brady miracle comeback. Huge injuries to big stars. (Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Rob Gronkowski.) Players like Cordarrelle Patterson, Da’Rick Rogers, and Justin Hunter had huge performances when they were supposed to be stashes for next year.

Instead of looking back this week, I am only going to look forward to this week’s games and who should be in your lineups.

Josh McCown

Quarterbacks

Let’s start with the latest news about Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is still feeling pain in his shoulder and isn’t medically cleared to play. The fact that the Packers play the Dallas Cowboys this week makes it even harder to swallow. Rodgers presence in the Packers’ lineup would elevate every single offensive player’s fantasy outlook. Jordy Nelson might be the only receiver that would seem safe to keep in your lineups if Rodgers doesn’t play.

Josh McCown has been so red-hot lately that fantasy owners are hoping Jay Cutler’s ankle problems can linger just long enough to help them win a title. McCown has especially been important to Alshon Jeffrey owners, as Jeffrey has flourished with McCown under center. His grasp and control of the offense was on full display on Monday night against a depleted Cowboys defense as he racked up five total touchdowns. This week he faces a tough Cleveland defense that is a little under-manned as well.

Drew Brees bounced back from a miserable game against Seattle with a vintage performance against a tough Carolina defense, once again cementing his place as an almost unbenchable fantasy commodity. His connection with Jimmy Graham has been amazing to watch over the last few years and should keep right on rolling this week against the St. Louis Rams.

Nick Foles showed a great bit of guts last week against the Detroit Lions. Playing in nearly six inches of fresh snow powder, Foles led the Eagles to a victory with a great second-half performance. While his numbers on the day would pale in comparison to Manning, Brees and McCown, they outdid his rival on the field Matthew Stafford by a great deal. Foles is a quarterback one in the fantasy playoffs, but I wouldn’t play him over Brees or Manning. When we start talking about Brady without Gronkowski and Cam Newton then I can get on board.

Speaking of Cam Newton, he didn’t play up to his recent standards last week against theSaints and gets a Jets defense that can stop the run. This may be a game where we see Newton have to throw the ball downfield to Greg Olsen and Brandon Lafell. Ted Ginn may get some looks as well as the Jets have been torched the last few weeks in the deep passing game.

Phillip Rivers is going to be high on everyone’s lists because he will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Denver Broncos offense on Thursday night. I’m not as excited as everyone else. The short week coupled with an opponent that is familiar with the quarterback and the offense he is running doesn’t scream must start to me. The shoulder injury to Keenan Allen and the goose egg put up last week by Ladarius Green have me even more on the fence. I have Rivers as my 11th best quarterback for Week 15.

What do we do with Tom Brady after the Gronkowski injury? You definitely need to bump him down a few spots in your rankings. You simply can’t make up for the loss of Gronkowski with lesser players. Look at the numbers Brady put up early in the year and add 60 yards and half a touchdown for the emergence of Edelman and the return of Vereen and Amendola, but you can’t add much more. I have Brady below Rivers this week and you know Rivers is right on the edge for me as a must start.

Adrian Peterson

Running Backs

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle sprain this past Sunday and it could mean that he misses this week or is at least limited against the Cowboys.James Starks becomes a must handcuff for the Lacy owner.

Adrian Peterson’s mid-foot sprain is a bit more worrisome for for fantasy owners. He is currently wearing a walking boot and ESPN believes he is out this week. His direct backup, Toby Gerhart, suffered a hamstring injury, but it doesn’t seem like it’s a major issue. He should be owned in all leagues.

Reggie Bush once again was injured just when you needed him the most. I’m not even sure that’s an accurate statement, but it feels that way. Bush aggravated a calf injury in warmups before the Lions faced the Eagles and Joique Bell was forced into snow-plow duty. Bell had a nice fantasy day even though he fumbled twice. Bush gets the maximum number of hours to rest his injured calf as the Lions don’t play until Monday night and you should start him if he’s a go.

Maurice Jones-Drew injured his hamstring on Thursday night after he manged to finally break the 100-yard rushing mark in a game this season. While the Jones-Drew injury doesn’t look like a big deal on the surface it will be a major concern for managers in very deep leagues. Even in leagues where you are forced to play three running backs his absence can be major. Jordan Todman is MJD’s direct backup and he is a talented running back in his own right. He could be the spot starter this week against Buffalo.

Rashad Jennings should play this week after missing last week with a concussion. He does get a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The question marks at quarterback for the Raiders also put a damper on any hopes for a big game.

Shane Vereen has been a PPR monster since he came back off of short-term injured reserve. He has 40 receptions in just five games. He has been everything that I hoped he would be when I targeted him in drafts this preseason. I just hope everyone reading this had the patience to keep him on their roster when he was on IR. With Gronkowski on injured reserve Vereen could become even more involved in the passing game.

 

Wide Receivers

Last week I talked up Michael Floyd without really knowing how bad his ankle injury was. Floyd says he played this past week at about 90 percent, but when I watched the film he looked about 75 percent of himself. With two tough matchups coming up the next two weeks he should be considered a wide receiver three. Larry Fitzgerald might continue to benefit, as he did this past week.

Julian Edelman continued his strong play against the Browns and could see a bigger role in the offense with Gronkowski injured. I really like him in PPR leagues as a WR3 where I was counting on some under-performing wide receivers.

Wes Welker has suffered another concussion and it looks like he should miss this week’s game against the San Diego Chargers. When Welker went out it wasn’t a wide receiver who filled in the slot, it was tight end Jacob Tamme.

The Minnesota Vikings look like they are in evaluation mode with Cordarrelle Patterson at the wide receiver position. He has been getting more and more snaps and looks like the offensive weapon everyone envisioned when they saw him at the University of Tennessee. He could be that magic add that wins you a title as flex play where you lost a player to injury.

The Colts seem to have finally figured out what every football fan who has ever watched Darius Heyward-Bey already knew — Heyward-Bey is a terrible wide receiver. Da’Rick Rogers and LaVon Brazill erased any images of Heyward-Bey as they combined for over 150 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers is the more interesting prospect for me and is  is my number three wide receiver pickup for this week.

The last rookie wide receiver that seems to be coming into his own is Justin Hunter.Kendall Wright has an ankle injury and Kenny Britt doesn’t even dress for games anymore. Hunter had eight targets this past week, topped 100 yards and scored for the second time in three weeks. He is a bit boom or bust, but I would pick him up if you are in a desperate situation.

Michael Crabtree played more than 88 percent of San Francisco’s offensive snaps last weekend and had eight targets from Colin Kaepernick. I am still scared to rely on him this week, but I could see using him with his uptick in usage.

images

Tight Ends

Let’s talk about the Rob Gronkowski injury and the lingering Jordan Reed concussion.

With both of these top 10 tight ends out or questionable going forward I will give you my replacements from the waiver wire.

Before the preseason even started I was drafting teams and Dennis Pitta was my go to tight end in the middle rounds. Before he injured his hip in the first live practice of the preseason Pitta was being drafted as the seventh tight end off the board in the seventh round of twelve team drafts. Pitta showed that he is still Joe Flacco’s go-to guy in his first game back. Pitta played 36 snaps with the Ravens throwing the ball 33 times. They targeted Pitta 10 times in those 33 plays.

It’s a long shot that this guy is still on your waiver wire, but if he is you should go toCharles Clay next. Clay is currently the fifth-ranked fantasy tight end in PPR leagues yet he isn’t owned in a ton of 10-team leagues. After his big performance last week against Pittsburgh I am a little scared that I would be chasing last week’s points by targeting him first.

Delanie Walker was being scooped up all over the place a few weeks back, but a concussion has seen him dropped in a lot of leagues. He should be back this week and gets to face a Cardinals team that will be without stand out slot corner Tyrann Mathieu. With the chemistry he showed with Ryan Fitzpatrick I would be more than happy to have him in my lineups where I lost Gronkowski.

Garrett Graham is the next tight end that could be a nice fill in for Gronkowski. He has all the factors you look for.in a tight end. He’s in an offense that features a tight end. He is the second option in an offense that can move the ball. The only thing I don’t like is the way Andre Johnson can dominate a game. If Johnson gets going it can be tough to notice if there are any other receivers on the field.

Last but not least is Jacob Tamme. Tamme could be the short term fill-in you are looking for if you are low on Faab Budget money in your leagues or know that you have low waiver priority. Tamme took over in the slot with Welker out and could have a very nice PPR game against San Diego on Thursday night. The only issue is he is truly a one week fill in and then you are back to the drawing board next week.

I want to wish you all luck in your semifinal matchups. (except if you are facing me!)  Make sure you listen to Trick Plays this week because last week we nailed Rod Streaterand Marcel Reese as sleepers that could help your teams in Week 14.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football Week 14

Fantasy Football Week 14

Alshon Jeffrey TD

Well I hope you didn’t indulge too much on Thanksgiving, because some of Sunday’s fantasy performances could have given you a heart attack. Whether it was watching your players become invisible (Eddie Lacy, Nate Burleson, or Stevan Ridley) or cheering on some record setting performances (Adrian Peterson, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffrey) it would have been safer to be near a medical professional.

Looking Back

Obviously the Packers‘ offense was a huge disappointment. Matt Flynn showed why he has been cut or traded three times in the calendar year with his pitiful performance. His ineptitude let an already strong run defense really clamp down on Eddie Lacy. The Packers receivers got many fantasy teams off to a horrible start in Week 13 because of Flynn’s play. On the other side of the ball, the big three for Detroit all showed why they have been fantasy studs all year. Matthew Stafford threw for over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns, Reggie Bush topped 100 yards rushing and added more than 50 yards receiving to go along with a touchdown, and Calvin Johnson was money in the bank with over 100 yards and a touchdown. The only disappointment was Nate Burleson’s goose egg. While many fantasy owners kept him on the bench in his return to the Lions‘ lineup in Week 12, almost everyone had slotted him in for a decent day as a WR3 or flex play on Thanksgiving.

It really seems hard to believe that the New York Jets are the same team that went into Atlanta and beat a Falcons team that still had a healthy Julio Jones. The Jets and especially Geno Smith have been awful ever since. Even in the Jets big win over the New Orleans Saints, the Jets won in spite of Geno, not because of him. His struggles have really put a damper on any late season upside from the Jets’ skill position players. Chris Ivory looked like he could be a decent standard scoring running back down the stretch, but with a quarterback who can’t sustain drives he moves back into a bench player.

I really hope you weren’t counting on Stevan Ridley to help you win a fantasy football championship. I had talked about his fumbling issues at length on the podcast and knew that if I was fed up watching him week in and week out that the Patriots had to finally be at the end of their rope. You just can’t win games turning the ball over. We as Giants‘ fans know that rule all too well. Ridley has been banished to the inactive list and very possibly could have carried the ball for the last time in a Patriots’ uniform.

I found the perfect way for you to get your struggling fantasy players to get going. You just make them play a game in Canada and all of a sudden their numbers go through the roof.C.J. Spiller and Steven Jackson have been huge disappointments this season, yet they may have helped you sneak into your playoffs by putting up the exact numbers you expected from them all year (Spiller 149 yards and 1 TD, Jackson had 84 yards and 2 TDs).  You must also remember that they have cheap meds in Canada and obviously Roddy White got his hands on some that enabled him to catch 10 balls for 143 yards.

I really can’t remember a bigger scoring week in fantasy football. I go back in this game a long way and there have always been weeks where two or three guys go off, but to have four studs go absolutely nuts in a week that decides the playoffs is just awesome. Anyone who played against Peyton Manning and Eric Decker deserves your sympathy. They combined for NINE touchdowns.  NINE!  If you faced Alshon Jeffrey or Josh Gordon you were probably prepared for 100 yards and a touchdown, but not more than 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. You just can’t compete with a team that has a receiver do that. It takes three of your players having a normal week to even it out.

Daily Fantasy Sports Games at FanDuel.com

Looking Forward

Of all the guys that could help you wrap up a first-round win it could be DeMarco Murray who I like the best. Murray has been running pretty well and is coming off a huge 3 TD performance, but it’s the defense that he’s facing that has me excited.  The Bears defense has literally been a running backs’ dream this season. Running backs gaining more than 100 yards and racking up touchdowns have come so easy that I was willing to bet anyone that Peterson would have more than 200 yards last week against them. Sure enough he managed more than 200 yards, but was overshadowed by all of the wide receiver performances around the league. Murray should feast with a very good run-blocking offensive line, but they will be facing an extremely motivated opponent in Jay Ratliff.

Carson Palmer has been very steady the last few weeks and has a nice matchup at home against a Rams defense that could be drained from a tough battle with the 49ers last week. His growing relationship with Michael Floyd has made for a powerful 1-2 combo the last few weeks.

Which ever quarterback starts for the Bears should be in your lineup if you don’t have a stud or a good matchup with your quarterback. McCown has been outstanding and Cutler won’t be starting unless he is 100 percent. With Forte matching up against those linebackers, Dallas may never be able to get off the field on defense.

While Eddie Lacy had a tough matchup on Thanksgiving, he has a very nice match up this weekend. Lacy gets to face the Atlanta Falcons who were absolutely gashed by theBuffalo Bills in Toronto. Lacy is a must start with RB1 written all over him while James Starks could even get in on the action if you need a someone in a very deep league.

Time to reassess

Managing a fantasy football team is a little bit like running an actual football team. The importance of self-scouting cannot be overlooked. You need to constantly be re-evaluating your players to see what you actually have. Has the player that was your WR1 the first few weeks actually become your WR4? Has your back up QB outplayed your starter the last few weeks? You need to take a good hard look at your squad before the playoffs and decide what roles they have moving forward.

For example:

Julian Edelman – He has probably burnt up your bench the last two weeks and should now be considered a low-end WR2 in PPR leagues moving forward. It’s clear that the Patriots have a game plan on how to get the ball in his hands and he shouldn’t be discounted just because you picked him up off of waivers.

Michael Floyd – This guy had a huge fan base in the dynasty community, but his redraft value was pretty low entering the year. Before the season many believed that Andre Roberts would eat into any redraft value this year, but that has not been the case. He didn’t make a big impact right away this season, but all the metrics pointed out that he could see an uptick in production based on his usage. Now he is riding a nice hot streak and should be a WR2 moving forward with even more value in standard leagues.

Nick Foles –  If you take away Foles performance against the Dallas Cowboys before he got injured, you would have a clear-cut fantasy stud quarterback. There have been two things holding back fantasy players and experts alike from anointing him a top fantasy quarterback. The presence of Michael Vick and Foles’ performance against the Cowboys. You see most experts expected a huge week from Foles against the Cowboys. Most, like me, had him ruin our daily fantasy lineups that week. That sting tends to stay with you and just now are we ready to say that that performance was more of an anomaly than his seven touchdown game against the Raiders. Foles is my QB7 going forward, but please don’t ask me if you should start him over Drew Brees or Peyton Manning.

Waiver Wire

This late in the season the wire should be plucked pretty thin, but here are a few names that may help you. LeGarrette Blount may actually be the beneficiary of the Ridley banishment. Blount is especially valuable in standard leagues as he could see more goal-line work. Ace Sanders has become an asset in PPR Leagues as Chad Henne has thrown the ball his way quite a bit lately. His 8 receptions for 60 yards may not make him Calvin Johnson, but he is more useful than some of the names collecting dust on your rosters.Andre Holmes of the Raiders burst on the scene on Thanksgiving and could have nice value moving forward if Denarious Moore isn’t able to play. Either way, Holmes size makes him a red-zone target so he should be rostered.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: Week 13 Thoughts

The holidays tend to be stressful for a lot of people. They are supposed to be the times we cherish and look forward to, but in reality the planning and logistics can lead many people to lose their cool. Now imagine throwing in a must-win fantasy football match up into the mix. Your grandmother is asking you to pass the cranberry sauce and you’re screaming at the television as Calvin Johnson, once again, gets tackled at the 1-yard line.

Before we start stuffing our turkey let’s take a look back at week 12 in the NFL.

Nice Surprises

Tiquan Underwood

The Detroit Lions have had a lot of trouble covering receivers lately and this week was no different. The only surprise was that it was Tiquan Underwood who burned them for three receptions for 108 yards and two TDs instead of Vincent Jackson. Underwood and Tim Wright were both nice match up plays in deep leagues last week and they both paid off. The other good thing to come out of that game for fantasy owners and for Tampa fans is that Mike Glennon continues to play mistake-free football.

The San Diego Chargers pulled off a huge upset this past Sunday and their quarterback, Phillip Rivers, once again proved that he is back to being one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league. Rivers was firmly planted on fantasy benches as he was facing a tough Kansas City defense in Kansas City, but put up the best passing numbers of the week of any quarterback in the league. He threw for 392 yards and three touchdowns helping him to become the fourth overall fantasy quarterback through week 12.

The Tennessee Titans were able to carve up the Oakland Raiderssecondary this past Sunday, but it wasn’t just Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker doing the damage. Ryan Fitzpatrick found rookie Justin Hunter six times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Hunter looked to be buried on the depth chart to start the year, but has worked his way into a significant role in their offense. His emergence has helped seal the fate of former Rutgers star Kenny Britt.

The last surprise really came out of no where. Everyone in the fantasy world was excited for the Denver Broncos to go into Foxboro and play the New England Patriots on Sunday night. Fantasy numbers were going to be ringing up faster than a cash register at Walmart on Black Friday. While everyone was hoping Danny Amendola would do his best Wes Welkerimpersonation, it was the old Wes Welker fill-in, Julian Edelman doing his spot on impression. Edelman caught nine balls for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

Disappointments

One of the biggest busts of the weekend was Victor Cruz. The absence of Hakeem Nicks and the strong wind gusts had a lot to do with Cruz’s sub-par numbers. The fumble on his first reception of the game didn’t help him either. Some reason for hope was provided by 4for4.com’s John Paulsen.

 

 

 

Another receiver who had his worst game of the season was Andre Johnson. Johnson caught just two balls for 36 yards as the Texans lost to the Jaguars. Johnson has become more openly frustrated with what’s happening in Houston and I’m a little scared that he’s letting it affect his play. Johnson gets the very physical Aqib Talib this week when he faces the New England Patriots. If Talib does as good a job on Johnson as he did on Demaryius Thomas last week then Johnson could be in for a tough day.

Andrew Luck had one of his worst games as a professional this past weekend. He barely reached a 50 percent completion percentage by going 20 for 39 and only managed 163 yards through the air against a very toughArizona Cardinals defense. The Colts have become so one-dimensional that it is now affecting Luck and his receivers. The lack of a running game has defenses teeing off on passing downs. Coby Fleener continues to play at a tight end 1 level and should be considered a fantasy starter from here on out.

My biggest disappointment has to be Robert Griffin III. Whether it’s his knee holding him up or just a case of him regressing we can no longer keep him in a borderline QB1 category. I really am at a loss for words when it comes to Griffin. I blame it on Adrian Peterson’s performance last year coming off of ACL surgery.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day and the rest of week 13.

I was so looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers carve up the Lion’s secondary this Thanksgiving, but alas, that won’t be the case. Rodgers isn’t cleared for contact and it looks like Matt Flynn may get the start. Flynn looked pretty good in relief this past weekend and should be able to put up good numbers against a bad Detroit secondary. One thing Detroit has been doing well is stopping the run and that means Eddie Lacy won’t be able to build on the momentum of his performance against the Vikings. I still have Lacy as a high end RB2 this week, but he very easily could be an RB1 if he gets in the end zone.

Looking at the other side of the ball Matthew Stafford has quietly been the third-best quarterback in fantasy football this season and is just now getting back a receiver that is actually fantasy relevant as a counterpart to the amazing Calvin Johnson. Nate Burleson had a very nice game coming back from his broken arm and looks like he could settle in as a nice flex play the rest of the season in PPR leagues.

The Giants ran the ball down the Cowboys throats and I expect the Raiders to pick up where the Giants left off. Rashad Jennings has been extremely good since he took over for the injured Darren McFadden and could be a middle of the pack RB1 this Thursday. Rod Streater has been playing well since Matt McGloin took over at quarterback and should be a low end WR3 going forward with McGloin at the helm. In the same game Tony Romo has a tremendous match up and should be able to feature Dez Bryant against a shaky Raiders’ secondary.

Antonio Brown

The Pittsburgh Baltimore night game has slug-fest written all over it. Antonio Brown is on a tear right now for the Pittsburgh Steelers and should be able to handle an improving Ravens‘ secondary. Le’Veon Bell has been very solid as RB2 in both standard and PPR formats, but could be facing one of his tougher tests as Baltimore tends to play tough at home. Ben Roethlisbergerhas been playing at a very high level and should receiver consideration from fantasy owners as a possible replacement for their struggling QB1. On the other side of the ball Ray Rice and the Ravens offensive line continue to struggle running the ball.  They have struggled so badly that the Ravens have turned to back up QB Tyrod Taylor to kick start their running game. Joe Flacco didn’t look very happy lining up at wide receiver, but the Raven need to do whatever it takes to move the ball. Torrey Smith continues to get better as wide receiver and should be nice WR2 for the rest of the season. Hopefully the Ravens will get Dennis Pitta back soon to help open things up for everyone.

One of my favorite match ups this weekend is the bears against the Vikings.Josh McCown has been able to put up very good numbers since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler and this week he has a tremendous match up to exploit. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte have all been able to keep up their production with McCown pulling the trigger. On the other side of the ball Adrian Peterson gets to face aChicago Bears defense that has been an absolute ATM to fantasy running backs. Zac Stacy would have put up 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns last week if he didn’t leave the game concussed in the second quarter. Peterson owes the Bears some payback after struggling with his footing in their earlier match up this season.

Waiver Wire

Zac Stacy owners should pick up Benny Cunningham just in case he doesn’t get cleared for this week. Nate Burleson should be a very high priority for wide receiver needy teams. Michael Crabtree should be owned in all leagues as he was just put on the active roster for the 49ers. The 49ers don’t put the ball in the air all that often so don’t expect big dividends right away.

***I just wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone reading this post a very happy holiday.***

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: Fanduel Thursday


Usually I like to leave the Thursday night game alone in daily fantasy football unless the match up is just too juicy and this week that match up is like a rare steak to a starved lion.  The New Orleans Saints had a rough and tumble game against the 49ers last week and get to play a division rival in a short week as a prize.  The schedule makers  looked cruel in the preseason as this could have been a huge game with division title implications, but that is not the case.  Luckily that division rival is currently in shambles as the Atlanta Falcons have imploded on both sides of the ball due to injuries.

With the Falcons defense looking like Swiss cheese you need to try and get at least one Saint in your lineup this week.

Drew Brees

Let’s take a look at Drew Brees and see if he will play at or above his value this Thursday.

Drew Brees- 309.41 yards and 2.94 TDs-(numberFire Projection)- 24.14 Fantasy Points -$11000 Salary

So Brees’s cost per point is $455.67.  That’s with me not including the potential for turnovers.  That’s a very doable number for me.   With little to no running yards expected by Brees he will have to put up a very nice game without any turnovers to make him a good play.

For Comparison

Case Keenum

Case Keenum-242.97 yards and 1.49 TDs-(numberFire)- 15.68 Fantasy Points -$6100 Salary

Keenum will scare off a lot of owners because of his benching last week, but there is no need to put him on your DO NOT TOUCH list.  He is facing the Jaguars who couldn’t contain Carson Palmer last week and supposedly has the full confidence of coach Kubiak.  His $389 cost per point is a very nice way to stack your team with high priced studs.   Remember I didn’t factor in any negative points for turnovers.

If you are going based on pure Cost Per Point then Brees would have to throw for over 310 with 4 passing TDs tonight to come close to a very low end projection of Keenum.

 

I suggest you build a team with both and see which lineup will score more points based on your most trusted fantasy projection site.  I prefer Brees for all 50/50s and Keenum for all bigger tournaments and expert (55K) heads up FanDuels.

 

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Fantasy Football: Week 12 Thoughts

Week 12 of the NFL season is finally upon us. This will be the final week our rosters will look like Swiss cheese, as it is the final week for byes in the 2013 NFL season. With Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Buffalo all off for the bye week, fantasy owners will be scrambling to fill roster holes.  I will try to help you stay ahead of the pack during the week 12 fantasy playoff push.

First let’s take a look at what happened in Week 11.

Nice surprises

CJ2K

The Thursday night game gave us some of the biggest surprises of the week. Chris Johnson started the game off running with a purpose and ended up with 17 carries for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. His night looked like it would be much bigger than that, but still not a bad haul for a low-end RB2.  The other Tennessee Titan that surprised was former 49er Delanie Walker who had a huge night with 10 receptions for 91 yards and 1 TD. His recent play has him as a fashionable waiver wire add for owners who are suffering at the tight end position. More on that later. The Indianapolis Colts had two nice surprises of their own. Donald Brown had a great night running the ball as he used 14 carries to cover 80 yards and score 2 TDs. Coby Fleener had a career night for the Colts as he reeled in 8 receptions for 107 yards. I have talked about Fleener for a while and am very excited forAndrew Luck and this Colts’ offense with Fleener emerging at the tight end position.

Fantasy owners were expecting big things from Garrett Graham when Owen Daniels went down in Houston, but he has mainly disappointed since taking over the lead tight end role. Well this week against the Raiders he finally went off. He had 13 targets and caught 7 balls for 136 yards and a touchdown. On the other side of the ball in that very same game Rashad Jennings put on a show Bo Jackson would have been proud of. He ran the ball 22 times for 150 yards and a touchdown that will be one of the runs of the year. He ran through D.J. Swearinger on the way to a high-lite reel 80 yard touchdown. While Jennings production has been great to this point there is the possibility that he could be in for a time share with Darren McFadden, when McFadden returns from injury.

The final surprise for me was the goal-line work from Montee Ball with the Denver Broncos. Most fantasy experts thought Ball would have wrestled the job away fromKnowshon Moreno by this time in the season, but Moreno has been nothing short of amazing for the Broncos up until this point. Ball got the most work he has seen on the season with 11 total touches against the Kansas City Chiefs including two rushing touchdowns, but Moreno still had 27 carries on the night. I think this outing makes Ball a must-add as a lottery ticket this late in the season. Moreno has had injury issues in the past and he hasn’t handled this kind of workload in a very long time.

Disappointments

I’m not sure why I even bring him up as a disappointment anymore, but Trent Richardson once again stunk it up.  He has shown zero vision and no explosiveness all season. I hope for his sake and for fantasy owners out there, that the Colts finally make Donald Brown the anointed rest of the season starter. Brown has been better week in and week out, and I’m sure Richardson is tired of the questions.

A.J. Green is on this list through no fault of his own. He just happened to be covered by “the current best cornerback in the NFL” Joe Haden. I knew Green was in for a touch match up, but 2 receptions for 7 yards. If you play in IDP leagues Joe Haden actually outscore A.J. Green by a huge margin as he had two tackles, two passes defensed, and two interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown.

Case Keenum was a huge disappointment, but it was really his coaches who disappointed me. Keenum has struggled with the blitz and it showed up on Sunday against the Raiders. Instead of sticking with the youngster the Texans pulled him and went back to Matt Schaub for the second half of the game. Schaub was very Schaub-esque in his relief duties and now it looks like Keenum will be back under center this week against the Jaguars.

Andre Ellington is my last disappointment for the week, I’m sure there are other deserving mentions, but Ellington is the guy that burned the most owners. Ellington touched the ball ten times for 13 yards. It’s bad enough that Rashard Mendenhall is splitting carries with him, but not producing against the Jaguars is tough to swallow.

This week’s best matchups

Usually I don’t recommend starting quarterbacks and wide receivers on Thursday night, but this Thursday is different.

Drew Brees has a tremendous matchup against a battered Atlanta Falcons’ defense and should put up huge numbers. The only question is who will be the beneficiary of all of Brees’ passes. I think this could be a mirror image of the game against the Cowboys for Brees. He will pick apart the Falcons linebackers with his running backs and I look for Marques Colston to continue his semi-hot streak.  I wasn’t sure I could make Jimmy Graham my No. 1 tight end because of his injury, but then I came to my senses and put him in at the top. I am playing all of my Saints in this match up, especially Pierre Thomas, who has been a great PPR running back to this point.

Jimmy Graham

Two of my favorite running backs this week are Andre Brown against the Dallas Cowboys and Eddie Lacy against the Minnesota Vikings. Brown in particular should have a very nice game against a banged up Dallas Cowboys defense. The Cowboys will be without Sean Lee at linebacker and have been piecing their defensive line together for weeks.  If the Giants can involve Brown in the passing game it could be a huge day as the Cowboys have specifically had issues covering running backs. Lacy, on the other hand, faces a Minnesota run defense that was embarrassed by Marshawn Lynch last week. Lynch didn’t have a monster yardage day, but did score three times. Lacy is a special runner. We may come to find out that he has his very own version of “beast mode” this Sunday. The more I watch Lacy the more I understand why SEC coaches were so glad when he left Alabama.

I’m going back to the well with Keenum. The matchup is too good to pass up against theJacksonville Jaguars. The Jags let Carson Palmer throw for 419 yards and 2 TDs against them last week. If Palmer can handle the Jaguars rush then Keenum will be able to. If Keenum is too much of a gamble then you could go with the surprisingly consistentMike Glennon. Glennon has been very steady since taking over as the starter in Tampa Bay and goes into Detroit on a two game winning streak.  Detroit has been good against the run, but hasn’t been able to cover anyone lately. So that makes Vincent Jackson a WR1 once again and puts Tim Wright and Tiquan Underwood on very deep league radars.

The Rashad Jennings show will once again be playing in Oakland. I don’t know if we’ll see anymore 80 yard touchdowns, but we should see RB1 production against the Tennessee Titans in Oakland.  The Titans have been so easy to run on some experts actually thought about using Trent Richardson against them last week.  While the experts were in the right ball park they were looking at the wrong player. Donald Brown was the beneficiary of the Titans’ porous run defense instead of Richardson. This time it will be all Jennings as McFadden is set to miss another week.

I expect Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore to run all over the Washington Redskins on Monday night.  I think they could both be top five at their respective positions in fantasy scoring.  The Redskins have struggled against Zone-read and there aren’t many teams that do it better than the 49ers.  Kaepernick along with Keapernick fantasy football owners need this to be the week he breaks out and I believe he will.

Other news and notes

Ray Rice ScoringMake sure you sell Ray Rice now! I’m sorry to say that he will not be facing the Chicago Bears again this season and should immediately be traded off of your teams wherever possible.

Washington Redksins’ tight end Jordan Reed suffered a concussion early in the game against the Eagles and is playing on Monday night this week. Make sure you have a plan B in place. I would look to Fleener, Rob Housler, and Delani Walker in that order as injury replacements.

If Bobby Rainey somehow stayed on your waiver wire you need to make sure you grab him immediately. Rainey picked up where Mike James left off as he rushed through and around the Atlanta Falcons for a huge game. He touched the ball 32 times for 167 yards and 3 TDs.

With Matt McGloin under center for the Oakland Raiders Rod Streater finally had a decent fantasy game. Posting over 80 yards on 6 receptions and adding a touchdown. He could be a decent bye week fill in in deeper league, but the Titans corners are pretty good.

Adrian Peterson has been dealing with a groin issue and it could finally be time to pick up his hand cuff, Toby Gerhart. If the groin becomes more of an issue then at least you are covered and don’t have to fight for him on the waiver wire if Peterson goes down.

Wide receiver Miles Austin is slated to return to the Dallas Cowboys’ lineup this week, and while I didn’t know how to feel about his return there are reports that he will gain his starting job back this week. This one is via Rotoworld.

Bryan Broaddus of the Cowboys’ official website believes Miles Austin (hamstring) is “your guy” as the No. 2 receiver when he returns this week.

When asked if the Cowboys plan to ease Austin back in, Broaddus replied that it “doesn’t appear that way.” Speaking on Tuesday, Jerry Jones said Austin is ready to go after missing basically every game since pulling his hamstring in Week 3. Terrance Williams has struggled of late in the No. 2 role, so it sounds like Austin is going to take over. Williams will still see plenty of action in three-wide sets, with Austin moving to the slot. Cole Beasley and Dwayne Harriswill be the Nos. 4 and 5 receivers. Austin has WR3 upside.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesser or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football Week 11 Thoughts

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Week 11 is traditionally where I begin to narrow my focus for a Fantasy Football playoff run. The bulk of the fantasy season is behind us, but the real work is just beginning. We should start by looking to make trades for players that have favorable match-ups in the playoffs. Then make the small trades that help protect our rosters. Like trading a fifth wide receiver for Joique Bell so you don’t get stuck with Reggie Bush standing in street clothes come Week 15. Those types of trades should only happen if the handcuff can produce similar fantasy points and the player has a clear history of injuries.

Before we look forward to Week 11 we must take a look back at what happened in Week 10.

Nice Surprises

First and foremost, our very own Andre Brown made his claim for more fantasy attention with a fantastic game against the Oakland Raiders. He touched the ball 31 times producing over 100 yards and scored a touchdown. What many saw as a cloudy running back situation for the Giants, including me, has become a beacon of hope for fantasy owners. Brown was clearly what the Giants have been looking for and should be a solid RB2 going forward.

Tavon Austin finally looked like a top 10 pick as he broke out for a three touchdown game. While waiver wire darling Zac Stacy was mostly bottled up on the day, Austin exploded. Austin still didn’t see the field as much as he should, but at least it was a very encouraging sign for those that own him in dynasty formats. I still don’t see him as much more than a WR4 for the fantasy playoffs.

Golden Tate took advantage of a beautiful match-up against the Atlanta Falcons and scored well above his weekly average. Tate’s 6 receptions for 106 yards and touchdown saw him as a perfect bye week filler for guys like Josh Gordon and Danny Amendola. He should be a high end WR4 going down the stretch.

Mark Ingram

Three New Orleans Saints who were either headed towards, or were firmly in the fantasy football abyss finally broke out. Marques Colston was borderline dropable heading into this week. He was right there with Dwayne Bowe as far as usefulness for a fantasy owner. The only difference is that Colston has Drew Brees throwing him the ball.  Brees finally decided to look Colston’s way and he delivered with 7 receptions for 107 yards and 1 TD.  Mark Ingram was so forgotten that he was even being dropped in dynasty leagues. The former Alabama star, who is just now fully healthy, ran like a man possessed against the Dallas Cowboys defense. He racked up 145 yards and a touch down on just 14 carries and added 2 receptions for 15 yards for good measure. Darren Sproles came into the game on a long string of disappointing fantasy returns. The Cowboys were the ideal remedy to get him going. He scored on the ground and through the air as he looked like his old elusive self. The Cowboys sixth-string linebackers only made him look that much more amazing.

Disappointments

Trent Richardson, Ray Rice, and C.J. Spiller.

Richardson has just not been able to get going since being traded to theIndianapolis Colts. The fact that fantasy owners are now looking to start Donald Brown over him makes him border-line dropable at this point. I am holding out hope, but I am literally starting a ball boy over him at this point. Ray Rice is not the same player he used to be at this point. The hip injury has sapped some of his elusiveness and power and he is running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Joe Flacco is still looking to him in the passing game, but he can’t make the first guy miss at this point, so his yardage suffers. I would look to trade him for anything that could help me down the road, because Ray Rice is still a name and sometimes you can make a deal on that alone. C.J. Spiller’s ankle was finally healed and he was coming off a 100 yard performance, so naturally the Bills were going to feature him….right? Nope, Spiller basically saw a third of the snaps in the backfield for the Bills and he was once again a fantasy disappointment.

The Mike James injury! Mike James was fast becoming a big-time fantasy running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.    He was the answer to all the prayers of Doug Martin and David Wilson owners as the Buccaneers had decided to feature James going forward in a more balanced attack. The Buccaneers had finally decided to put Doug Martin on injured reserve early on the weekend making Mike James rest of the season outlook look that much better.  Well a fractured ankle on a run that came up just inches short of a touchdown may have cost some of us a fantasy championship.

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Week 11 Start/Sit

With only Dallas and St. Louis on a bye in Week 11 most fantasy teams will be fully stocked for battle.

The Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles game looks like an explosive fantasy match up on paper, but these two teams are division rivals who have already played each other once. I still think there should be some nice fantasy points scored in this game, but I don’t really trust Robert Griffin III just yet. If Griffin is erratic throwing the ball then the Redskins offense will stall and The Eagles will take the air out of the ball with LeSean McCoy. The one good thing for the Redskin’s run defense is that Nick Folesis under center and he is much less of a threat in a zone-read situation. The Redskins have been gashed all year by mobile quarterbacks running zone-read.

While Marshawn Lynch has a great match-up against the Minnesota Vikings, Adrian Peterson will see his name slide down some fantasy experts’ lists. I am not one of those experts. I think Peterson is just finally getting healthy and that the Seahawks defense can be run on. I have Peterson as my number four overall running back this week.

Ben Tate

We saw what Andre Brown and the Giants were able to do against the Oakland Raiders last week. Well now Ben Tate and the Houston Texans get those same Raiders in Houston. I feel like Tate is going to have a very big day, but his injured ribs are my only concern. High upside RB2 for me this week.

Alfred Morris was having a huge game last Thursday before the Redskins forgot to call running plays in the second half. This week they’ll stick to the running game against the Eagles and Morris will finally get back into the end zone.

Because of injuries and a bye week for Tony Romo you may need to use the waiver wire for your quarterback this week. While early in the year I may have had to recommend any quarterback that was facing the New York Giants, that is no longer the case. The Giants have improved dramatically in recent weeks and make starting the newest Green Bay quarter back Scott Tolzien a real reach. I would instead look to Case Keenum against the Oakland Raiders or Ben Roethlisberger against the Detroit Lions.

The wide receiver match ups are very interesting. Andre Johnson gets a huge bump with Case Keenum now slinging the ball in Houston and looks to have the best match up of all the wide receiver ones. DeSean Jackson ran through the Redskin’s secondary at will the last time they played and he should still find room this week to make him a top play. The Eagles’ other wide receiver, Riley Cooper, has seen his fantasy statistics sky-rocket with Nick Foles at the helm and looks to be a WR3 and flex option going forward. Huge disparity in numbers for Cooper with Foles under center than withMichael Vick.

Two guys that would usually be at the top of any wide receiver list, in Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green actually face very tough match-ups this week. Calvin Johnson faces the always tough Ike Taylor, while A.J. Green gets theJoe Haden. I expect Johnson to still put up representative numbers, but Haden is a real tough draw for A.J. Green.

A man that may have been forgotten and that the Dolphins‘ owner, general manager, and fans would probably like to forget so far this season, Mike Wallace, actually has a very nice match up this week against the San Diego Chargers. The only issue is if Wallace decides to actually try for a change.

Two of my top tight end plays this week happen to share the same first name.  Jordan Reed and Jordan Cameron both have pretty good match ups this week. Reed faces the Eagles and is in the enviable position of being the number two target on a team that may have to play catch up on Sunday. Cameron is the Browns number two target and should have been working during the bye week with Jason Campbell to get on the same page. Cameron is an unbelievable talent as a pass catcher and I expect Campbell and the Browns to do everything they can to get him the ball going forward.

Top Fantasy Waiver Targets

Michael Crabtree — it looks like he could be back soon as the 49ers have let go of Kyle Williams

Brian Leonard

Brian Leonard, Mark Ingram, Bobby Rainey, Shonn Greene, Rishard Mathews, Nate Burleson, Tyler Eifert, Coby Fleener, Rob Housler

Who has been your biggest fantasy football disappointment and surprise to this point?

Contact me @Coachesser on Twitter or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: NY Giants Week 10 Start/Sit


The Giants spent the bye week healing up and readying for an uphill battle back to the top of the NFC East.  While it’s anyone’s guess if the Giants really have a legitimate shot at making a run at the NFC East title, the fact that the Giants are as healthy as they have been since training camp cannot be disputed.

Andre Brown

The Giants welcome back their power back Andre Brown to a now crowded back-field and could get their best run-blocking tight end, Adrien Robinson, back from a preseason foot injury.  The combination could have a ripple effect throughout the Giants offense that could benefit everyone involved.  What looked like a thunder and lightning partnership between Andre Brown and David Wilson, has now become a backfield full of rolling thunder.  Andre Brown, Peyton Hillis, and finally healthy Brandon Jacobs could become the type of backfield that can break the wills of opponents.

Fantasy Outlook

Eli Manning-311.56 yards 1.45 TDs and 1.56 Ints (numberFire projection)

Eli comes off the bye week with an offensive line that has finally settled in together.  While the defense was finally clicking on all cylinders before the bye week , Eli and the offense were sputtering.  The additions of Andre Brown and Adrien Robinson can only help Eli over the second half of the year. I expect Eli to have a very big game and my co-host, Micah James, at Trick Plays picked him as his sleeper of the week. The Raidersdefense is ripe for the picking and Eli should put up top ten QB numbers.

Andre Brown-6.02 carries for 27.15 yards and .14 TDs (numberFire)

Brown’s return to the offense comes at an interesting time for the Giants’ running game.  Brandon Jacobs had gashed the Bears a few weeks ago before getting injured, and then Peyton Hillis did a more than adequate job stepping into the backfield off the street. Hillis has proved a solid pass blocker as well as pass catcher while doling out his usual forward falling straight ahead runs. Brown’s patience and skills in the screen game could be a perfect compliment to these two bruisers.  I actually like Brown to be a nice flex play this week against a bad Raiders defense.

Peyton Hillis-8.40 carries for 27.24 yards and .12 TDs, 2.30 receptions for 21.16 yards and .12 TDs (numberFire)

Hillis will have a diminished role with Brown back from injury, but just how much it will be diminished is still to be seen. Hillis has been very valuable on passing downs and could carve out a niche going forward in that role. I don’t see him as much of a fantasy option until we see how much Brown is going to be used this week.

Brandon Jacobs-?

The return of Andre Brown and the emergence of Peyton Hillis has put a damper on the great story that was for Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs will be lucky to hang onto a roster spot with Brown’s return and should only get short yardage and spot usage going forward.

Victor Cruz-5.34 receptions for 76.09 yards and .43 TDs (numberFire)

Cruz missed practice yesterday with a stiff neck and his status is to be monitored going forward for those that have him in fantasy.  I actually have Cruz having a much bigger day, if he plays, than numberFire has him having against the Raiders pass defense. The Raiders safeties have been as bad as any in the league and Cruz can run by them at will if he is healthy.

Hakeem Nicks-3.44 receptions for 46.21 yards and .41 TDs (numberFire)

Nicks has been pretty bad from a fantasy perspective this season. This match-up could be the one to get him going.  The Raiders corners have struggled in man coverage and Nicks should be able to beat them off the line of scrimmage at will.  I expect almost double the numberFire projections.

Rueben Randle-2.28 receptions for 33.66 yards and .32 TDs (numberFire)

Randle put up a goose-egg the last time out and could see his snaps limited with the return of Stacy Robinson at tight end. While Randle may not get enough snaps to have a huge game, he may only need a few to make a fantasy impact.  I expect the Giants to take some deep shots to Randle if they are able to get the running game going. I have Randle as a WR4 this week, but he has TD potential.

Brandon Myers-3.31 receptions for 32.82 yards and .28 TDs (numberFire)

Myers will be freed up from some of his blocking duties by the return of Adrien Robinson to the lineup.  Myers has failed to click with Eli Manning so far this season and his production is hard to even project.  He is only the fourth option in the offense and should be no more than a tight end two going forward.  He could have some more opportunities in the passing game with Hillis in the backfield and Robinson in at tight end.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a nice game this week after watching the Raiders try to cover the Eagles tight ends last week.

Start/Sit Around the League

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers‘ injury has the fantasy football world in an uproar.  His shoulder injury not only affects Rodgers’ fantasy owners, but also the owners of Jordy Nelson, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones, and to a lesser extent Eddie Lacy.

Aaron Rodgers owners …

The first thing I would do is to look at the waiver wire and see if Jay Cutler is available.  Cutler may return this week from a torn groin and was playing at a borderline QB1 before his injury.  He has a great match up against the lions this week and should be good to go if the doctors clear him. Other QBs that could be your answer on the waiver wire are Nick Foles and Case Keenum.  Foles is a good choice, but don’t go chasing last week’s points. The Raiders won’t be there for the Eagles to pick on the rest of the year. Keenum will have a huge test this week against the Cardinals on the road, but he has shown a nice deep ball as well as a rapport with his number one receiver Andre Johnson.

Jordy Nelson owners …

Don’t panic, but the WR1 days are over with Wallace at the helm in Green Bay. Seneca Wallace has poor arm strength and will have a hard time hitting Nelson on any out breaking routes as well as getting the ball to him deep. Nelson  could still be a WR3 going forward, but I am going to be playing the wait and see game and pray that Rodgers is back in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Jarrett Boykin owners …

Boykin has had a nice showing while filling in for James Jones and Randall Cobb, but his fantasy relevance took a huge hit with Rodgers going down. I would jump ship with Boykin if Riley Cooper, Aaron Dobson, or Mike Brown were available on the waiver wire.

James Jones owners …

Jones has always had trouble separating from coverage, but that was never a problem for Aaron Rodgers.  Jones would body up his defender and Rodgers would fit it in to him. Jones is going to be a WR4 until Rodgers comes back from injury.

Eddie Lacy owners …

Eddie Lacy was fast becoming a top fantasy running back the last few weeks, but the absence of Rodgers could  put a stop to that trend.  Lacy was facing soft fronts with Rodgers at quarterback and now will face stacked boxes that are full of run blitzes. If I was a defensive coordinator, stopping Lacy and his running mate James Starks would be my first priority. Lacy goes back to RB2 territory until Rodgers comes back.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesser or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: Week 9 Start/Sit


Just a few short weeks ago we, as Giants‘ fans, were begging for a bye week to help our team catch their breath before a difficult season swallowed them up. Now on a two game winning streak with a defense making plays and a running game that is at least making third downs manageable, the bye week hits us. Hopefully the Giants don’t lose the momentum they’ve built up and can pick up right where they left off when they’re back on the field in week ten.

While I’m confident the Giants won’t let an ill-timed bye week trip them up, I’m not as confident in some of my fantasy teams. The reason I am concerned is because of the quality of players that share this week nine bye.

Peyton Manning

Players like: Peyton Manning, the surprising Knowshon Moreno, the triumvirate of Denver receivers, Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson, Our own Victor Cruz, Colin Kaepernick, the age-less Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon, Larry Fitzgerald, and the break out star of last week Andre Ellington.

The week nine bye is especially difficult if your team is not currently sitting with a winning record. Sitting at 4-4 with only a handful of weeks to make the playoffs will have some owners desperate to fill out a solid lineup, even if it means trading away some of their best players who are on a bye. I make it a point to look at league records and poke and prod owners who are in these delicate lineup situations. You never know if they might trade you Demaryius Thomas for Pierre Garcon because they feel they can’t bite the bye week bullet.

Some interesting news from around the league

Zac Stacy’s sprained ankle has been reported to not be the dreaded high-ankle sprain and even got in a very limited practice yesterday with the Rams. Stacy’s performance against the Seahawks on Monday night went a long way towards proving his running back two status moving forward. His vision and elusiveness make him a must own if he’s still on your waiver wire somewhere.

Shonn Greene returns to the Tennessee Titans this week after missing the first seven weeks of the season with a knee injury. Mike Munchak hinted at a time-share at the running back position moving forward. He said Greene would get 15carries while Chris Johnson would get 20. Seeing as Johnson doesn’t factor in goal-line or short yardage situations, this could be a major hit to his fantasy stats the rest of the year. Greene should be owned in all twelve team leagues.

Roddy White still has not been cleared to play and it looks like Harry Douglas will continue for the foreseeable future as Matt Ryan’s number one target. Make sure to start him while you can. Jonathon Stewart returns to the Carolina Panthers just in time asDeAngelo Williams is nursing a leg injury. The Panthers running back situation will be very difficult to navigate for the next few weeks as Stewart and Williams lose goal-line carries to Mike Tolbert. If Stewart can prove to be an asset in the passing game with his excellent screen-pass skills then he could be a flex play going forward.

If you were lucky enough to listen to my podcast Trick Plays last week then you had Marvin Jones in your lineups when he went off for four touchdowns against the Jets. If you didn’t well then that’s on you. Jones had all of that production (8 receptions, 122 yards, 4 touchdowns) while only running 13 routes. Jones is the epitome of the big play receiver as A.J. Green attracts double coverage on the opposite side of the field. Jones ability to break tackles and accelerate quickly make him a touchdown threat on any reception. His ownership numbers skyrocketed this week in fantasy football as a result of this breakout performance.

I know some people might be itching to get Torrey Smith back in their lineups following the Ravens bye week, but I would be cautious as he is facing the always difficult Joe Haden. Ray Rice on the other hand should have a bounce back game and is back into my running back one rankings.

One game to watch, with fantasy starters in mind, will be the Indianapolis Colts against the Houston Texans. T.Y Hilton is expected to take on a bigger role in the passing game with the injury to Reggie Wayne, and he should be able to run free against the Texans’ secondary. The Texans on the other hand are once again starting Case Keenum at quarterback, and have a bunch of injury concerns at the running back position. Arian Foster hasn’t practiced yet this week and Ben Tate is nursing a rib injury. The fact that this is a late Sunday game with both running backs likely being game time decisions, makes it an extremely difficult situation for Arian Foster owners. The last thing you want to do is bench Foster for, let’s say Ryan Mathews, only to have Foster put up huge numbers against the Colts. I would suggest picking up James Starks as insurance to the Houston running back situation, as Starks plays on Monday night and should see a lot of action against the Bears.

QB Bye Weeks Fillers:

Jake Locker, Terrelle Pryor, Nick Foles

RB Bye Week Fillers:

Mike James, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert, Shonn Greene, possibly Daryl Richardson(if Stacy is out)

WR Bye Week Fillers:

Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., Darrius Heyward-Bey

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter@Coachesser or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

This post originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on October 31st, 2013.

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Fantasy Sports: Trades

Being Proactive Vs. Being Annoying

I am all for trying to better your roster from the time the draft ends to the very second that you are eliminated from the playoffs.  I even love making trades during a draft.  That’s why I always prefer having a live in-person draft because you can use some of the best skills a poker player possesses to your advantage.  You can read a person’s reaction to a pick. (bad or good.)  You can use your memory of how much an owner loves a certain player to corner them into a trade.  You can even use your mathematical skills to gain an advantage when trading draft picks.

The problem I have seen with online drafts full of anonymous strangers is there is little to no advantage to be culled for trade purposes during a draft.  The message board is often filled with braggadocio and insults, and offers little useful information to the cunning owner.  The occasional, you sniped me comment, can be used, but even then the owner knows they opened their big mouth during the draft.   The trade block after a draft is filled with mistake picks that look like road side junk on the way to a theme park.

After a draft is always a delicate time for trades.  It’s easy to take a player or two off an owner’s hands that had some buyer’s remorse, but trying to pry away top draft picks is often a fruitless endeavor.  They were drafted high for a reason.  The owner believes in their talent and opportunity.  The only time I even try and go after an owner’s first few picks is when there is some post draft news that may affect how in love they really are with that player.  Is the backup all of a sudden going to be handed a bigger role.  Is there an injury that went unnoticed in the preseason.

Make Sure You See The Signs

Bear Sleeping

If an owner tells you up front that they would prefer not to talk about trades until after the season starts, take that as a big hint.  They are basically posting a huge warning sign that states CLOSED UNTIL THE SEASON.  Treat these owners like they are bears in hibernation.  You don’t really want to go prodding the bear and end up creating an enemy for life.

If an owner says a certain player is OFF LIMITS don’t cross that line.  As the great @WHUDEY says all the time, habitual line steppers will be put in their place!  No rationale or pointing out of holes in an owner’s lineup will help you pry away an untouchable.  You will only make that owner dig in deeper, like a jungle warrior trying to avoid an invading army.  You are only setting yourself up for disaster if you keep on with the assault.

If an owner says they have a certain need, make sure your trade offer solves that problem otherwise you are wasting people’s time.  Don’t try and sell your offer as a problem solver if it only puts a band-aid on an open wound.  When someone loses Reggie Wayne for the year don’t offer them Hakeem Nicks for Jimmy Graham.  Not only are you insulting their intelligence, you are bringing your own into question.

Message received

If your 100 MESSAGES aren’t being returned it’s time to rethink your strategy.  Trying to get a trade done is not a war of attrition.  You don’t try and wear down the other owner until they finally accept an offer.  You are not only alienating the owner, but you are setting yourself up for a big problem.  If you continuously set your sites on one player you can make so many offers that you may make a mistake where you give away way too much for that player. It’s especially dangerous if the owner you are trying to force a trade with is a poker player.   A good owner (poker player) could be just checking and checking every time they decline your trade offers without a reason, waiting to trap you into that one big hand where he empties your wallet. (roster.)

Being First To The Feeding Frenzy

When there is a major injury on a Sunday in fantasy football, the first thing I do is check the owner of that player’s roster for possible trade fits.  I treat that owner as if they are a stranded swimmer out in the ocean.  Life boats will be coming at them from all angles with some boats looking more inviting then others.  Being first to lend a hand with a sensible offer can put you at the head of the line if there are multiple owners with similar offers.  Remember that most owner’s worst traits tend to come out when they smell blood in the water.   They offer their waiver wire bound wide receiver and act like it’s the golden ticket from Willy Wonka.  I’m pretty sure Slugworth wouldn’t even want Miles Austin on his roster if it meant some of Wonka’s secrets.

Please use these tips as a guide of what not to do in trying to trade in fantasy sports.

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