April 2013 – The Fantasy Sports Coach

The Pull of the Waiver Wire

The call of the waiver wire is as irresistible as a Siren calling me towards a rocky shore. I cannot help but peek constantly at all of the unwanted players that could be the key to a championship season. The songs are full of homeruns and stolen bases, but when you get up close you realize they are actually strikeouts and hitless nights. Unwanted relievers that look like save opportunities are actually WHIP and ERA killers dressed as shaky closers.

While it has been a long time since I have visited the baseball version of this island, my years of fantasy football have prepared me to navigate these rough waters. Some early season struggles of mid-round picks may send some GMs to dispatch their weak link early. Meanwhile, it can be a great place to buy low for the knowledgeable GM.

Some names that recently hit the waiver wire in my head-to-head league include late round sleepers, solid bench players, and even a former MVP. These players include Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner, and Justin Morneau. None of these players are going to make or break a fantasy team, but I had to pinch myself to see if this was a waiver wire reality or a free agent fantasy.

Both real and fantasy baseball pundits have repeatedly proclaimed that “Moustakas is going to hit.” Maybe so. But for now I would rather hold the fort down with guys like Chris Johnson and Jason Donaldson until Moustakas figures it out…on my bench. Brett Gardner was supposed to fill your stolen base quota, but instead he has opened the season like he was stuck in second gear. If he’s not stealing now, he will be later in the year. Don’t let another GM reap the benefits of your quick trigger finger.

Kyle Seager has way too much upside to put on the waiver wire, even if he is batting against the wind. Seager is someone you should hold on to, especially since he is eligible at second base in some leagues. Even with his recent hot streak, his batting average hasn’t surpassed .250 which is demonstrative of how poorly he started the season. Finally, I was quite surprised to see 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau on the waiver wire. Granted, if he is not hitting for power then he can possibly drag your team down in several roto categories. But he appears healthy and is a strong candidate to be traded at some point during the season. He would be worth your while to simply stash on your bench until he gets hot later in the year.

Moving on to the pitchers, many big names have surprisingly found their way to the waiver wire after failing to quickly rekindle their past glory. Dan Haren and Josh Johnson are two prime examples as GM’s might begin to hit their ejector seat buttons. (Chad Billingsley was originally on this list before it was revealed he required Tommy John surgery). Haren has been very shaky after a terrible 2012 season,and I see him as surplus to requirements in almost every format. Johnson is one of the most injury-prone pitchers in baseball, and is playing in a park that is not very friendly to sinker-ball pitchers. He got off to a very poor start in 2013, but he can still be a fantasy asset and is playing for a contract which is always an added motivating factor.

Finally, I must acknowledge that I have been greatly amused watching the train wreck otherwise known as the always-evolving “Closer Carousel.” Newly acquired Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan started out hot, cooled off, got hurt, and now looks like an afterthought with the job Andrew Bailey is doing. Carlos Marmol and John Axford lost their jobs during Week 1 with epic failures. Then Marmol has some success pitching in a setup role. As soon as he is given another chance to protect a lead, he fails…again. I mostly put his recent blown save on his manager, who brought him in the day after throwing over thirty pitches in a two inning outing. Not to mention Joey Votto was overdue against him and a runner was already in scoring position. I, like most GMs, are happy to avoid the headaches and indigestion that some of these bad closers can cause. The Detroit Tigers closing situation has been like a Mike Shanahan running back competition. First it is this guy, then it is that guy, and now it’s Jose Valverde all over again. There is a very good chance that this will change again by the time this article is published.

PS Axford might get his closers job back………

You can also see this article featured at Fantasyjudgment.com as Coach Dennis’s Diary

Bad Picks = Bad Beats

Now three weeks into the season, it is easy to start second-guessing yourself. Do you have a gaping hole in your lineup thanks to an early round gamble on an injury-prone star such as Jose Reyes? Has that “sure thing” and “can’t miss”stud turned into a bench-warming nightmare such as Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp? Are you paying the “Price” for taking last year’s Cy Young winners and overlooking Matt Harvey later on in the draft? Is “Cain” not able? Rather than dwell on all of your mistakes, you should bask in the glory of the small victories you attained.

It is easy to get down on yourself and play Monday morning quarterback. Instead, try and focus on all the smart picks you made. Maybe you took late bloomer Chris Davis in the later rounds and have been reaping the benefits of his newfound confidence ever since. If so, your own confidence as a GM should grow as well. Maybe you went with your gut looking for an outfielder and grabbed Dexter Fowler, and in the process bypassed roto darlings Brett Gardner and Angel Pagan. Maybe you are skeptical of medical records and physicals so you drafted Mike Napoli and now look like a genius. Or, maybe you smartly grabbed an established second baseman such as Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler instead of getting tempted by Jason Kipnis or Emilio Bonifacio.

Focusing only on the missteps can drive a fantasy baseball GM mad. I would equate this mentality to the poker player who dwells on his bad beats. You played the hand by the percentages and with perfect mathematical precision, but the other guy just happened to get lucky. You can drive yourself crazy replaying these hands and bad picks, over and over again. But eventually, you realize you could not and should not have done anything differently. After all, David Price at the top of the third round is something I would take any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

As the saying goes, focus on the good things and don’t let the bad get you down. Don’t let early season struggles become a cancer on your fantasy team. I realize symbolizing an under-performing fantasy baseball as a cancer is a bit extreme, but it fits. Think about it – the GM feels as if the struggling player is sucking the life from his team, but most likely that player is too good to drop (think BJ Upton, Jason Heyward, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ike Davis). You should not be running around your league trying to trade your bad apple because that apple will look awfully rotten if the other GMs get to talking.

It is advisable to hold on to the underperforming star player and think long-term. They can always be stashed on your bench during serious cold streaks. Do not make rash or impulsive waiver wire decisions based on these early season anomalies. Instead, you can make up the difference by picking up valuable players while dropping the dead weight. Players like Jhoulys Chacin (currently on 15-day DL) and Ross Detwiler would be nice upgrades for some of the bigger names that are droppable such as Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson. Don’t rush to drop Jarrod Parker, Josh Johnson, or Brandon Morrow. They have too much upside to put out on the waiver-wire right now.

Back to Bases!

Welcome back to fantasy baseball (insert my best Horshack voice). No, I am not that old that the last time I participated in a league was during the time of bellbottoms and Oscar Gamble’s afro. Rather, it was during the time of flannels and the greatness of Seattle, both in music and on the field. This is my ongoing diary for Fantasy Judgment of my experience venturing back into fantasy baseball. I will provide insight and observations throughout the season of my team, league, and general perception of fantasy baseball from the perspective of someone who has been out of the game for awhile and is now back. Think of me as the Unfrozen Caveman Fantasy Baseball Player. FIRE BAD!

Pearl Jam A lot has changed since the late 1990’s. Seattle is now known for its coffee and its baseball team is a cellar dweller with only a few players worth drafting. (Editor’s Note: thanks to the Houston Astros, the Mariners are almost guaranteed not to finish in last place in the AL West). The players around the league don’t quite fill out the uniforms, or the box scores, the way they did in the 1990’s. It is no secret that players’ statistics today pale in comparison with those achieved before the Mitchell Report. Gone are the days of middle infielders dominating the homerun and RBI categories (thanks Bret Boone). If anything, Major League Baseball is now reminiscent of the 1980’s in terms of positional values. The best example would be Robinson Cano having equivalent value as Ryne Sandberg did in the mid 1980’s. I am quite happy about that because I feel this trend actually helps me in my comeback quest.

I started playing fantasy baseball in a Rotisserie league in the late 1980’s and absolutely loved it. I assigned players a value based on position eligibility and looked to maximize my dollars according to the values I assigned during our league auction. The draft was everything I had hoped it would be – exciting, fun, and all together exhilarating. The rest of the season was always a letdown. The time before cell phones and the Internet did not make a long season exciting. I would follow my teams performance in the Daily News box scores, but there was no league banter or trades of any kind. The last thing on anyone’s mind was riding a bike across town just to get Tim Wallach or Kelly Gruber, when your Yankee third baseman didn’t materialize. Teams would be drafted and set adrift, and it would always leave a bad taste in my mouth.

The late 90s offered more excitement with the Internet being utilized, but once again getting a league to actually care, and stay interested for 162 games grew impossible. We were latch key kids who had grown up with the remote control. We had the attention spans of 6 year olds listening to a lecture. If you were not entertaining us than you were switched off.

Fantasy football became my passion. A draft that had all the excitement I was looking for, and a short season that kept mine, and everyone else in the league’s attention. The format was perfect, head to head week after week, divisions and playoffs culminating before the end of the season. Fantasy football and the rush associated became a increasingly addictive. I joined more and more leagues. I went through withdrawal after the season ended, even if I won the title. I would count the days to the draft, and look at meaningless Football news in the middle of May as if my life depended on it.

I needed an intervention, or at least a good fantasyadone clinic. Now at the height of my addiction, in walks a head-to-head fantasy baseball league and my attention is grabbed. I was still following baseball and all of its storylines, but had pretty much become New York-centric. If it didn’t have to do with the Yankees or Mets, I really did not care.

I was going to have to do some homework and fast. Luckily all of my draft strategies and GM skills easily translated to the new format for fantasy baseball. First and foremost I was looking at which positions were deep and which positions I needed to put a premium on based on scarcity. I also did the leg work and polled other GMs as to the pervasive draft strategies that I needed to try and stick to. The biggest tip I got was to try and get a stud number one starting pitcher in the first three rounds. If I didn’t, I would be gambling the rest of the draft to make up the difference. This theory easily paralleled my draft strategy in football as it is always imperative to get a top 6 quarterback in the first three rounds, otherwise you are gambling the rest of the draft with unproven commodities. While RG3 and Andrew Luck carried teams early, late in the season the owners who gambled on them mostly fell to the wayside. I feel the same way about GMs in fantasy baseball who think they are going to ride Matt Harvey and players of his ilk to the Promised Land. It’s a long season and I want a player that has been there and done that, not one that I have to draft way to early and hope that they are the exception to the rule.

I hope you tune in and don’t change the channel as I update you throughout the year on my reintroduction to fantasy baseball.

Monthly Archives: April 2013

The Pull of the Waiver Wire

Bad Picks = Bad Beats

Back to Bases!