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The Fantasy Baseball Black Book

The twists and turns of life often bring you back to a very familiar place.  The twists and turns of my life brought me to  Somerville, New Jersey to raise my children in my wife’s home town.  While my wife was very familiar with the surroundings of this part of New Jersey, I was not.  I often got route 202 confused with route 206 and became even more confused when it turned out they become the same road just north of Somerville.

I clung to sports to get my bearings and started coaching in the local high school.  Football and Wrestling filled my days and nights and I started to master all the  little ins and outs of the towns here in Somerset County.   Then my wife became pregnant with triplets and my life completely changed.  Instead of teaching and coaching I was changing diapers and making formula.  Instead of watching game film or scouting opponents I was watching Sesame Street and going to well visits.

While I was talking to one of my friends from High School on Facebook they mentioned that a mutual friend was in a similar situation and lived relatively close to me.  That mutual friend turned out to be Joe Pisapia, author of The Fantasy Baseball Blackbook, and someone I hadn’t spoken to since graduation.  I looked Joe up on Twitter and we reconnected.  It proved to be a very small world.  We had grown up only a few blocks from each other and now we lived in neighboring towns.  It was amazing how much we had in common.  We both married amazing women who had become the major bread winners in the household and had daughters that we stayed home to take care of.  We both were infatuated with fantasy sports and immediately started picking each other’s brain on theories and strategies.BlackBook14Cover

I was primarily involved in the fantasy football world and had been away from fantasy baseball for a number of years when we reconnected.  Joe, on the other hand, had been writing about fantasy baseball on multiple sites and was on SiriusXM Radio on the Going 9 Baseball show along with another childhood friend Dan Strafford.  Not only was Joe posting articles and talking baseball on the radio, but he was author to the Number 1 Fantasy Baseball book on Kindle.  The ideas and theories behind Joe’s book brought me back to Fantasy Baseball in 2013 and I couldn’t be happier.  It made me look at rankings and the draft in an all new way and actually had me right back up on top of the leagues I was in my first year back since the late 90’s.

If you don’t believe me or are skeptical you should listen to some friends in the industry who think just as highly of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book as I do.

“Pisapia’s ideas and concepts on relative value are some of the smartest things I’ve read on this topic in all my years playing fantasy. All the things you think you know about fantasy are going to be colored and changed once you read this.”– Will Carroll, Lead Writer for Sports Medicine, Bleacher Report Member, BBWAA and PFWA

“Joe will have you looking at your player rankings in a whole new
way… and it will help put you ahead of the curve.” – Chris McBrien Host, “Dear Mr. Fantasy” Podcast

 

I was so excited about Joe’s latest book that I wanted share it with as many friends and followers as I could.  Joe was nice enough to provide me an excerpt from his latest book so that my readers and followers can see what they’re missing by only buying a fantasy magazine from the local drug store.  Here’s some of what the new book covers.

The new and expanded 2014 edition includes:

* Over 400+ player profiles including minor league prospects
* Expanded RPV for all players in varying formats (roto & points)
* 2014 Draft Strategy for all formats including Daily Fantasy Baseball leagues
* Chapters on being a commissioner, most overrated/underrated players, making trades and managing your team, and the answers the five biggest questions in fantasy this season
* More Dynasty and Auction League content than ever before

Here’s the excerpt, and don’t forget to click on the link to buy The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition.

By Joe Pisapia the creator of the revolutionary statistic RPV (Relative Position Value) and the author of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition. Available on Amazon Kindle Store and iTunes for Apple Devices. Check out www.fantasyblackbook.com for your fantasy baseball news and listen to him on Sirius210/XM87 Fantasy Sports Channel Going 9 Baseball Every Thursday 8-10PM EST.

 

RPV – Relative Position Value

The age old argument in fantasy sports has always been whether or not to value position scarcity. Many have had theories on both ends of the spectrum. The biggest problem is neither side has been able to quantify their stance on the subject. That is until the Fantasy Baseball Black Book created the statistic Relative Position Value otherwise known as RPV. What RPV does is allow you to compare players to their peers at their respective positions with weighted values based on their production. It also gives you a look into each position as an entire entity to see just how valuable catchers are compared to second basemen as a whole. Best of all, it is completely adaptable to all formats, styles, scoring systems. RPV is adjustable to your specific league style and depth of talent. It’s the single most useful draft tool and player evaluation system available to fantasy players. And for any roto league players skeptical of this stat translating into your format, get ready to see fantasy in a whole new light.

RPV goes so much deeper than just measuring out league average production at a position. That really doesn’t help you much because all that gives you is a medium baseline to work off of and stay above. But what does that mean? It doesn’t weigh the players value above that baseline nor weigh the elite at the position versus the elite at other positions.

For example, let’s pretend the league average second basemen offensive stat line is: .260BA/70R/10HR/70RBI/7SB

The “experts” who use this logic insist that Player X is better than the league average and Player Y is under the league average so therefore Player Y is not valuable. Here is the major problem with this approach; the league average holds 30 players at second base. Fantasy leagues play 12-20 second basemen every week (depending on format and MINF slots). Therefore, the “league average” concept is obsolete. The fantasy league average is what is applicable based upon the depth of your personal league. My 24 team dynasty league is a totally different set of circumstances than my 16 team points league or 12 team roto league. You must have an adjustable tool to measure players in all situations.

Let us take things a step further. It’s not enough to know the statistical average fantasy points of the top 12 second basemen over the last three years (roughly 400 points). You need to have some way of quantifying how much better (or worse) a given player is compared to the next guy available at his position on draft day. I call this approach Relative Position Value of a player or RPV. This theory is simple to grasp and easy to utilize when creating your tiers for your draft.

To begin using RPV, you’ll need a method that will assign a numerical value to each player that reflects his performance. Any single measurement method will do; however, it is most easily communicated using fantasy points (or projected fantasy points) which measure a player’s true overall production. However, just because we are using points does not mean the result is not applicable to roto formats. In fact, it can be a huge asset when creating your draft strategy in roto leagues. You just have to adjust the point value by adding more weight to stolen bases and being aware of positive and negative batting averages (above/below .275BA as the benchmark). On the pitching end, you increase the value of saves and awareness of positive/negative ERA (3.75ERA being the threshold). We will investigate roto RPV further as the chapter continues.

With the basic point value system Robinson Cano is the highest point getter at second base with a 550 point average over the last three seasons. The average over that same period for the top 16 second basemen is 375 points. Note that we are looking at Cano versus a grouping of 16, but of course the number can be adjusted for any depth necessary.

The formula to determine the RPV or the percentage in which a player is better than the fantasy league average is:

(Individual Player Point Value − Fantasy League Average of the Position) ÷ Fantasy League Average of the Position = RPV

In the case of our example:

(Robinson Cano’s 550 −The Average 2B points 375) ÷ 375 = .46

So what does this .46 number mean? It means Cano is +46% better than the league fantasy league average second basemen. Therefore his RPV is +46%.

RPV can also show a negative impact. That would mean a player whose point total is below the position average (the 375 point threshold in this circumstance). RPV lets us see not only the negative affect of these players, but also the extent of that negative impact. For instance, let’s plug in Omar Infante’s 3 year average of 320 points into the equation.

Infante’s 320pts – 375 FLA (Fantasy League Avg) ÷ 375 = −.15 or −15%RPV

This means that should you end up starting Omar Infante in your league that you are down -15% in production at that given position relative to what the average second basemen in your league will achieve. Therefore, you must make up ground at another position just to keep up with the league average at an overall team level. The goal is to be at or above the average at every available position in order to maximize each available roster spot. Bill James once said if you had a league average player at every position you would make the playoffs in MLB every year. That would be accurate in fantasy terms as well. However, what we want to do is get to the playoffs with a real chance to win. In lay terms, you want to squeeze as much juice from every single orange you have in your crate so that your glass is as full as it can be, or at least fuller than the guy next to you. You have a certain number of finite active roster slots in your lineup and getting the most out of them each week is the key to success.

RPV IN THEORY

For an example, let’s take a look at the RPV leaders at each position over the last three years using the standard scoring system. Again this is for a field of 16 deep at each position. The second RPV in brackets

[X%] is for a 12 team roto league pool with expanded rosters (2C/CINF/MINF/5OF etc). The three year leaders by position are:

(FL AVG Points) =Fantasy League Average points

[RL AVG] = Roto League Average points

C Carlos Santana {398pts} (289 FL AVG pts) +38%RPV

[based on 256 roto league average points Santana = +55% roto RPV]

1B Prince Fielder {522pts} (418FL AVG) +25%RPV [386 RL AVG = +35%]

2B Robinson Cano {550pts} (375FL AVG) +46% [356 RL AVG = +55%]

3B Miguel Cabrera {636pts} (375FL AVG) +70% [346 RL AVG = +85%]

SS Ben Zobrist {443pts} (358 FL AVG) +24% [330 RL AVG = +34%]

*ALL ROTO OF RPV based on a 360 point ROTO AVG*

OF #1 (440) – Mike Trout (*only two full seasons*) (601) +37% [+70%]

OF #2 (376) – Alex Rios (424) +8% [+17%]

OF #3 (319) – Alfonso Soriano (369) +10% [+3%]

* #4 and #5 OF for roto only

*OF #4 (274) – Austin Jackson (342) [-5%]

*OF #5 (240) B.J. Upton 286 [-21%]

*SP RPV values hold true in all formats*

(w/ a secret points league advantage discussed later in this chapter)

SP#1 (522) – Clayton Kershaw (669) +28%

*SP #2 (409) – C.J. Wilson (440) +8%

*SP #3 (337) – A.J. Burnett (372) +10%

*SP #4 (291) – Mike Minor (311) +7%

*SP #5 (256) – Ryan Vogelsong (269) +5%

RP #1 (321) – Craig Kimbrel (522) +63%

*RP #2 (241) – Glen Perkins (264) +10%

One of the most interesting things about looking at 3-year averages is that the “best” player at each position is not necessarily the one that jumps to mind. Ben Zobrist for instance is not the player Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki is, but Zobrist does produce consistently and he stays on the field regularly. In points leagues, Carlos Santana’s +38% is higher than Mike Trout’s 37%, but clearly there is no universe Santana goes before Trout nor should he. What it does illuminate is that relatively speaking, Santana’s value based on the positional depth of catcher is extraordinary. It also shows how valuable a catcher who plays more frequently just 5 games a week. We

Notice that for the outfield and pitching positions I’ve broken things down into individual roster spots, even though the players who are eligible at these positions are all drafted from a single pool. I think this is appropriate when considering RPV, because, not all three outfielders on a fantasy points league squad represent the same level of quality or performance. Thinking this way, you can see why drafting a solid number one outfielder is important, but once you have one, the rest of your outfield slots can be filled later in the draft.

There is a distinct difference in the points and roto RPV numbers. You can also clearly see when the talent pool expands to a 12 team roto league with 5 OF/CINF/MINF etc. the percentages expand. What also grows is the disparity between the top and bottom numbers. You also see how even the best 4th and 5th outfielders are in the negative pool making outfielders a higher priority in roto. The OF pool becomes a matter of supply and demand. There are 90 active OF playing a night in MLB (3OF x 30 teams). In a 16 team points there are 48 (3 OF x 16 teams). That is about half the total talent pool. In roto, you normally have 5 active X 12 teams which is a pool of 60. That is 2/3 of the talent pool and I am not counting how many you will see used in DH or UT lots. That can easily bump that number to 70 or more out of the 90 available.

In 12 team roto leagues, Mike Trout’s value skyrockets as it should. OF is where you will get the majority of stolen base production and that is crucial to roto leagues. Another clear leap is at catcher. Santana’s RPV also increases a great deal based on the expanded catcher pool and lack of production at the bottom third of the top 24 catchers. As for Miguel Cabrera, well he is still equally brilliant in all formats.

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Michael Kay Vs. Mike Francesa

Michael Kay Shoots Peas at The Pope of NY Sports Radio

Kay

Michael Kay opens his first show on YES network with a salvo at the the departed Mike Francesa.  Kay decided the high road was too tough when he took the simulcast reins at YES network and threw a Diet Coke bottle in the trash to symbolize his status as the new king of New York sports radio.  (Mike Francesa is famous for guzzling Diet Coke on his broadcasts.)  The jab didn’t go unnoticed as many fans were astonished at how petty Kay was in his first show in Francesa’s old time slot.

Let’s get this straight.  I am not a fan of either talking head.  If I’m being completely honest I’m not a big fan of the entire industry.   Even though I am not a fan, I still respect what they have accomplished in their careers, especially Mike Francesa.   Mike Francesa is idolized by sports fans all over the Tri-State area (New York, New Jersey, and Connceticut)  His throne looked to be in peril when his side kick, Chris “the Mad Dog” Russo left the show to start his own show on satellite radio, but Francesa managed to stay on top of the ratings.

Michael Kay has worked his way up from being a simple Yankee fan-boy sitting in the nose bleed seats at the old stadium to the cornerstone talent of the YES network.  His radio show for ESPN New York is their highest rated program and his ratings have been growing overall.  He has been nominated for over 20 Emmy’s and won 7 so obviously someone likes him.  I’m just not one of those people that like him.

MK and the Pope

If you live in the New York area you hear lots of stories about these two.  From the “He was dueche at a wedding for not taking pictures with people.”  To “He asked a professional athlete why he was making small talk with a janitor.”  I’ll let you figure out who is who, but either way you see what kind of people I am talking about.  The wedding story was never a big deal to me because maybe he didn’t want to take attention away from the bride and groom, or maybe he had a long day.  Who knows, but usually I will give the benefit of the doubt on stuff like that.  The other one was more troubling.  Asking someone why they talk to a stadium attendant says a lot about the individual.  If you can’t do anything for them or aren’t on their economic level then you are excrement.

There are a lot of things I don’t like about what they do at their day jobs as well.  I absolutely hate when Kay is teamed with Paul O’Neil in the booth and the two of them do shtick the entire broadcast.  I can’t stand his wooden interviews on Center Stage for Yes Network.  Francesa acts like hockey doesn’t exist unless a team is going for the Stanley Cup and then he only does the bare minimum for the hockey fans in the area.  Francesa is also brutal when it comes to being biased in favor of the Yankees when compared to the Mets.  My feelings aside, they both must be doing something very right because  they have a lot of fans.

They may be worshiped by the blue collar crowd that props up their ratings, but these two are the furthest thing from blue collar.  Francesa is most comfortable talking about the sport of kings or belittling callers for their ignorance.  Michael Kay registered at CitiBank for his wedding and asked for cash in lieu of gifts.  While many blue collar guys have just as much love for horse racing and soliciting money as these two, they just do it in very different ways.

While Francesa is visiting the stables and watching the horses he owns from the private boxes at Saratoga, Johnny Blue Collar is running to the OTB in between double shifts to try and hit the long shot in the 8th at the Meadowlands.

While Michael Kay is asking his rich friends to help pay for his wedding because he either owns too much or doesn’t trust their taste in gifts, ( Insert Derek Jeter gift package joke here.)  Johnny Blue Collar is running a yard sale where he selling some treasured wedding gifts to pay for his children’s orthodontia.

They are both elitist and at times petty, but in this latest battle Michael Kay made himself look silly.  Francesa is still the king.  His radio show is number one in the ratings and it’s not even close.  Kay recently said he was fine with being number two behind Francesa as long as he knew he was doing a better job, but he was quickly corrected by a caller who pointed out that Kay’s program is actually number seven in the ratings and not even in shouting distance.

 

 

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Draft Master 1 Review

DraftMaster 1 Logo

Well Super Bowl Sunday may seem a little too early for the average Fantasy Football player, but for me and my friends it was perfect timing.  The Fantasy Taz, Jim Day, invited some of his buddies in the industry to participate in his 1st Draft Master of 2014 and I was lucky enough to get an invite.  Even though I was busy making Baked Rigatoni for buddies Super Bowl party and chasing my little ones around, I wasn’t going to let that stop me from seeing where this year’s break out stars may end up in next year’s drafts.  Without further build up here’s each roster and a link to each GM followed by some draft notes that are my opinion as we drafted Super Bowl Sunday.

@GrantGurtin
(1 – RB1)Charles, J
(12 – WR12)Brown, A
(1 – RB11)Murray, D
(12 – RB22)Gore, F
(1 – RB23)Moreno, K
(12 – TE5) Davis, V
(1 – WR32)Edelman, J
(12 – WR42)Blackmon, J
(1 – WR43)Williams, T
(12 – Def1)Seahawks, S
(1 – TE13)Walker, D
(12 – RB50)Davis, K
(1 – QB20)Flacco, J
(12 – QB23)Manuel, E
(1 – WR62)Givens, C
(12 – PK12)Gould, R

Grant was drafting directly in front of me and behind me in every round so I had to pay close attention to his roster construction to see who he may let slide to me.  Charles seems to be the consensus 1st overall pick in all the conversations I have had in the off season and Grant made that official here.  DeMarco Murray at the top of the 3rd was a nice pick.  Without rookies being involved all you can do is project O-lines that are going to be solid and the Cowboys have a nice base with Frederick and Smith.  Gore has been “SLOW” and steady the last few years, but this could finally be the off season he is usurped in the 49ers backfield.  If he isn’t then that pick is solid.  The same goes for Moreno who is a free agent after having a career year for the Broncos.  Vernon Davis at the bottom of the 6th is nice value, but Blackmon at the bottom of the 8th is a bit of a gamble.  You figure Blackmon’s ADP was around the 10th round with a 4 game suspension last off season.  With his suspension not yet lifted it’s tough to spend more than a 10th right now.  At the bottom of the 10th the Seahawks were the first D/ST taken.  No problem taking them in this format, but as you will see later other fine D’s went a few rounds later.

@coachesser
(2 – RB2) McCoy, L
(11 – WR11)Jones, J
(2 – QB2)Rodgers, A
(11 – RB21)Richardson, T
(2 – WR23)Wright, K
(11 – TE4)Gronkowski, R
(2 – RB30) Miller, L
(11 – TE8) Pitta, D
(2 – WR44)Williams, M
(11 – WR50)Hunter, J
(2 – RB43)Jennings, R
(11 – WR55)Jones, J
(2 – WR56)Streater, R
(11 – Def4)Panthers, C
(2 – PK1)Gostkowski, S
(11 – QB26)Bradford, S
LeSean McCoy is 1-B for me to start the year and there was no passing him up here.  At the bottom of the 2nd round I got my number 4 rated WR, Julio Jones, who happened to slip because MFL has his ADP way low.  I actually had to look him up alphabetically so that’s a heads ups he may slip in early MFL 10s.  At the top of the 3rd I got hand-cuffed by the clock and took Aaron Rodgers.  Again I was looking for an injured player whose ADP was low.  I couldn’t find Doug Martin fast enough so I went with Rodgers who I think is going to have a huge season after getting injured in 2013.  In the bottom of the 4th I had to take a gamble on T-Rich.  Gronk at the bottom of the 6th was a gamble, but I had a back-up plan with Pitta only two rounds later.  Pitta with Kubiak as OC should be fun.  Hunter in the 10th is one of those 2nd year wide receivers I expect to break out.  11-13 was all about value for me.  James Jones, Rashad Jennings, and Rod Streater are all guys that I expect to go much higher later in the year.

Jason Weiler – MidwestXpress
(3 – RB3) Peterson, A
(10 – WR10) Nelson, J
(3 – WR13) Garcon, P
(10 – WR22) Welker, W
(3 – WR24) Bowe, D
(10 – RB29) McFadden, D
(3 – QB8) Brady, T
(10 – WR41) Amendola, D
(3 – RB36) Ivory, C
(10 – RB42) Ridley, S
(3 – RB44) Wilson, D
(10 – TE19) Fleener, C
(3 – TE20) Cook, J
(10 – Def3) Rams, S
(3 – TE23) Pettigrew, B
(10 – PK11) Janikowski, S

Jason took AP with the third pick and I can’t argue much with that.  Last season it was tough to pass up on him at 1st overall and this year it looks like the 3rd overall pick is where it will be tough to pass on him.  Jason decided to go on a wide receiver run in rounds 2 through 5 that may leave him very vulnerable at RB.  McFadden in round 6 was his 2nd RB and there is no guarantee he starts any where next year.  Fleener, Cook and Pettigrew were all tight ends I was looking to avoid this early in the off-season.

@The_Street_FA
(4 – WR1) Johnson, C
(9 – QB1) Manning, P
(4 – RB12) Spiller, C
(9 – RB20) Stacy, Z
(4 – TE2) Thomas, J
(9 – WR31) Wallace, M
(4 – RB31) Tate, B
(9 – WR40) Maclin, J
(4 – RB37) Brown, A
(9 – TE12) Green, L
(4 – QB16) Manning, E
(9 – WR54) Moore, D
(4 – RB51) Greene, S
(9 – WR61) Tate, G
(4 – Def5) Bills, B
(9 – PK10) Tucker, J

The Street Free Agent went with my personal favorite Calvin Johnson at 4 overall.  I simply love that guy in Best Ball full point PPR leagues.  Manning in the 2nd slightly influenced my later pick of Rodgers.  Stacy in the fourth was huge value based on what we saw from Stacy last season.  i like the picks of Tate and Maclin in the 7th and the 8th.  Depending on where they end up they could be very valuable assets.  Ladarius Green in the 10th was one of those picks where the draft room groaned.  Many of us were targeting him just a few rounds later.  Golden Tate in the 14th could prove to be a great pick as well.  If he ends up in the right situation he could out play his draft position by leaps and bounds.

@RoadWarrior_FFO
(5 – WR2) Green, A
(8 – RB10) Bush, R
(5 – WR14) Johnson, A
(8 – QB3) Brees, D
(5 – RB24) Jackson, S
(8 – TE3) Witten, J
(5 – RB32) Woodhead, D
(8 – WR39) Nicks, H
(5 – WR45) Stills, K
(8 – RB41) Thomas, P
(5 – WR51) Wheaton, M
(8 – TE18) Gates, A
(5 – QB21) Palmer, C
(8 – RB58) Helu, R
(5 – Def6) Cardinals, A
(8 – PK9) Bailey, DDave went AJ Green at 5th overall and this could be a trend come later in the off season.  Reggie Bush is a tough one for me to figure out right now.  He could lose a lot more carries to Bell or the starters job all together, but if he plays like last year than he’s a great pick.  Brees at that spot in the 4th makes me feel like this was a true late off season mock draft.  Woodhead in the 7th was a little early for me, ut you can’t argue with his production in a full point PPR league.  Wheaton in the 11th round could be a break out 2nd year WR candidate.  That was a nice upside pick.

@ShanePHallam
(6 – TE1) Graham, J
(7 – RB9) Bell, L
(6 – RB13) Martin, D
(7 – RB19) Foster, A
(6 – WR25)Crabtree, M
(7 – WR30) Smith, T
(6 – QB9) Stafford, M
(7 – WR38) Harvin, P
(6 – RB38) Ellington, A
(7 – WR49)Sanders, E
(6 – WR52) Woods, R
(7 – RB49)Robinson, K
(6 – TE21) Ertz, Z
(7 – Def2) 49ers, S
(6 – PK2) Prater, M
(7 – QB24) Smith, GShane started off with Jimmy Graham at the 6th pick and that should be right around where he goes if he fully recovers from his foot injury this season.  The rest of Shane’s draft was awesome.  It was like he was working off his own list.  Value in every round.  I mean Harvin in the 8th round.  I guarantee he’s going in the top of the 3rd come late off season.  Ellington in the 9th.  Some of us were asleep at the wheel to let him pick off all this talent.  Good for Shane and hopefully this will help me set up some of my early off season MFL 10 drafts on myfantasyleague.com.

@AndrewMiley
(7 – RB4) Forte, M
(6 – WR9) Cobb, R
(7 – RB14)Bernard, G
(6 – RB18)Mathews, R
(7 – WR26)Patterson, C
(6 – WR29) Floyd, M
(7 – WR33)Shorts, C
(6 – QB11)Kaepernick, C
(7 – TE9) Olsen, G
(6 – QB15) Rivers, P
(7 – TE14) Allen, D
(6 – RB48)Michael, C
(7 – RB52)Stewart, J
(6 – WR60) Bailey, S
(7 – Def7)Buccaneers, T
(6 – PK8) Sturgis, CI really liked Andy’s draft as well.  There was value all over the place starting with Matt Forte in the 1st round.  Some of my favorite picks were Bernard in the 3rd, Patterson in the 5th, and Allen in the 11th.  I really like Bernard this season with Hue Jackson as his OC, and Patterson showed enough raw ability to make him look like a future top 6 receiver.  Allen is a guy I love and hope bounces back from a major hip injury.  Two potential top 10 QBs in the 8th and the 10th is nothing to sneeze at either.

@JDBeckler
(8 – WR3)Bryant, D
(5 – WR8)Fitzgerald, L
(8 – WR15)White, R
(5 – RB17)Vereen, S
(8 – RB25)Sproles, D
(5 – WR28)Colston, M
(8 – WR34)Austin, T
(5 – QB10)Griffin III, R
(8 – QB12)Wilson, R
(5 – RB40)Jackson, F
(8 – TE15)Eifert, T
(5 – TE17)Fauria, J
(8 – WR57)Smith, S
(5 – RB57)Richardson, D
(8 – Def8)Bengals, C
(5 – PK7)Bryant, MJohn definitely had a plan when he came into this draft. WR-WR was the way for him, and I like that plan down here, BUT I am not a huge fan of Fitzgerald over some of the WRs that were left on the board.  After going WR again in the 3rd, Beckler decided to go PPR RB back to back with Vereen and Sproles.  Vereen I love, but Sproles worries me.  He played injured last year and he needs to be healthy to perform.  In the 11th and 12th 2nd year TE were his guilty pleasure.  Eifert and Fauria are both guys that could make huge strides next year.  Nice gambles.

@FatKat52
(9 – RB5)Lynch, M
(4 – WR7)Decker, E
(9 – WR16)Jeffery, A
(4 – WR21)Hilton, T
(9 – RB26)Jones-Drew, M
(4 – QB7)Foles, N
(9 – RB33)Brown, D
(4 – WR37)Hartline, B
(9 – RB39)Blount, L
(4 – WR48)Cooper, R
(9 – TE16)Clay, C
(4 – WR53)Holmes, A
(9 – QB22)Tannehill, R
(4 – WR59)Jernigan, J
(9 – PK3)Dawson, P
(4 – Def11)Colts, IBruce went with Lynch in the 1st round and that’s a very solid pick.  Decker in the 2nd was a bit of a reach for me.  Jeffrey in the 3rd made up for it though.  Foles in the 6th was very nice value for a potential top 5 QB.  Donald Brown in the 7th and Blount in the 9th are two guys that need to wind up in the right spot in the off season to make them worthy of being drafted before the 10th round.  They could pan out though if put in the right situation.

@Fantasytaz
(10 – RB6)Lacy, E
(3 – WR6)Thomas, D
(10 – WR17)Cruz, V
(3 – RB16) Ball, M
(10 – RB27)Bell, J
(3 – QB6)Newton, C
(10 – WR35)Boldin, A
(3 – WR36)Jennings, G
(10 – TE10)Bennett, M
(3 – WR47)Jones, M
(10 – RB45)Lattimore, M
(3 – QB19)Romo, T
(10 – RB53)Rodgers, J
(3 – TE22)Daniels, O
(10 – PK4)Hauschka, S
(3 – Def10)Bears, CJim picked two of my favorite players in the 1st and 2nd rounds.  Eddie Lacy is a beast and the only thing that caps his potential is all the touchdowns that Aaron Rodgers wants to throw. Thomas was a steady force at the WR position in 2013 and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon with Manning still under center.  Victor Cruz was picked right around that same spot late in the off season last year, but injuries and the Giants O-line woes killed his year.  Big time candidate for a bounce back.  Ball was a bit of a gamble in the 4th, but if he gets to be the lead back in Denver then that’s a steal.  Newton in the 6th is an almost automatic.

@tequilability
(11 – WR4)Gordon, J
(2 – WR5)Marshall, B
(11 – RB15)Johnson, C
(2 – WR20)Allen, K
(11 – QB4)Ryan, M
(2 – RB28)Todman, J
(11 – RB34)Ingram, M
(2 – TE7) Reed, J
(11 – QB13)Cutler, J
(2 – QB14)Roethlisberger, B
(11 – QB17)Dalton, A
(2 – RB47)Hunter, K
(11 – RB54)Mendenhall, R
(2 – RB56)Brown, B
(11 – WR63)Patton, Q
(2 – PK6) Walsh, BDish went WR-WR and I love who he came out of the first two rounds with.  Gordon and Marshall can be a fantasy championship back bone.  Allen in the 4th might be a steal come later in the off-season.  Jordan Reed in the 8th was a nice pick, but I can’t explain or support taking four QBs in this format.  That’s just craziness when only 1 scores each week.

@bro1ncos
(12 – RB7)Rice, R
(1 – RB8)Morris, A
(12 – WR18)Jackson, V
(1 – WR19)Jackson, D
(12 – WR27)Hopkins, D
(1 – QB5)Luck, A
(12 – TE6)Cameron, J
(1 – RB35)Pierce, B
(12 – WR46)Randle, R
(1 – TE11)Wright, T
(12 – RB46)Williams, D
(1 – QB18)Smith, A
(12 – RB55)Rainey, B
(1 – WR58)Johnson, S
(12 – Def9)Chiefs, K
(1 – PK5)Zuerlein, G

@Bro1ncos went RB-RB at the bottom of the first and I didn’t love the picks.  Morris proved to not be worthy of a high top 14 pick in full point PPR leagues because he was so TD dependent his rookie year.  Rice is blaming injury for his lack of production, but it was a bit of that coupled with a very poor Baltimore O-line that held him back.  Rueben Randle in the 9th was an interesting pick because he could (and should) be the WR2 for the Giants after they let Nicks walk.  Vincent and DeSean Jackson were nice high variance WRs in the 3rd and 4th, but he should have come back with a consistent WR in the 5th instead of gambling on Hopkins.

Who Do You Think Rocked DraftMaster 1?
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Fantasy Football Draft Prep

Wes Unseld

I finally am starting to realize how my father felt when his kids started to beat him at basketball.  My father was a proud man.  In his younger days he was a very athletic burly individual who loved to play basketball in the yard with his boys.  He was a street kid from the Bronx who played a rough and tumble form of basketball. He played in the local Catholic Athletic League as an adult and sent many a friend’s father to the floor with his Wes Unseld like physicality.  

My father would play the same way against us, his kids, as he did any full grown adult.  Body blocks, broken fingers and road rash were regular occurrences.  He even dislocated a colleague’s elbow with a hard foul one Saturday afternoon.  The man probably thought he was going to shoot some friendly hoops with the boss and found out the hard way there was no such thing as friendly hoops in the Esser’s back yard.

My father’s skills started to diminish as we started to grow up.  He could no longer block my brother Frank’s shots because Frank had managed to perfect a high release jump shot with his long 6’3″ frame.  My brother Tom had started doing his best Pistol Pete impressions while running circles around the heavier and slower version of my father.  My father didn’t exactly take this turning of the tide in stride.  He quit.  Never to lose a game to his sons on the court he had built.

I recently started to realize my advantage in Fantasy Football keeper and dynasty leagues had started to slip like my father’s basketball skills.  My first round rookie picks were no longer sure things much like my father’s patented unblockable hook shot had become less automatic.  My leagues were getting better and more competitive just like the way my brothers developed their basketball games as they grew up.  My leagues that were once cake walks had become filled with stronger more determined competitors.  I could have retired with the belt like my father did, but I chose another path.

The tide has been turning the last few years in my fantasy football leagues.  I haven’t been as sharp at identifying rookies or realizing the potential of some second year players.  I found myself struggling to keep up with some of my younger foes who seemed to have the inside skinny on every drafted rookie and even the undrafted free agents that could be assets down the road.  I felt the floor shifting beneath me and realized I needed to take stock and focus on what I was missing.

I looked back at how I used to evaluate rookies and second year players.  I was a huge fan of college football and the draft process for as long as I can remember.  I would watch, and a lot of times bet, every game that was televised.  I was betting Fresno State and Middle Tennessee State while my friends thought the only teams that existed played in the Big East.  I would do mock drafts and big board the entire draft on notebook paper.  I eventually graduated to Excel sheets that my wife would help me build.

All that work paid off with a huge advantage in my keeper and dynasty leagues.  My knowledge of rookies would help me on draft day and was an even bigger advantage when it came to trades.  What looked like an even trade when it was made, would look like an all time steal just a few short years later.  The last few years my juggernaut teams have started to show some holes.  I was still winning and doing well, but clearly I was missing more than ever in rookie drafts.  In truth I felt like the Patriots of my dynasty leagues where some of my drafts were just a waste, yet I still managed to stay near the top.

I realized that I was never going to be able to be the college football/draft guy I was for a number of reasons.  The main reason was my Saturdays were now reserved for spending time with my wife and kids.  Saturdays are the days we go to pumpkin patches, petting zoos, Grandma and Grandpa’s house, and every other place you can think of.  My wife works long hours during the week and all she wants is to spend some time with me and our beautiful girls on the weekends.  How can I deny that and say that I need to watch Rutgers play Houston or Northern Illinois play Akron?  I can’t.

Tea-Party-Daddy-Girl-Tea-2

Not me-But you get the point

While I accepted that fact that I was going to have some limitations for the foreseeable future, I didn’t accept the fact that I couldn’t be as informed as I once was.  Luckily for me there is a wealth of knowledge and tools available on the internet.  Whether it’s a premium subscription to DLF or just listening to some more podcasts while my kids are napping I was going to figure out a method that got me back on my game.

The key for me was time management.  I needed to create or subscribe to the best Twitter list I could find.                      (@SigmundBloom’s NFL Draftniks is a great place to start.)  Once I had a list of writers and draft minds that I thought looked at prospects the same way I did, I narrowed down my focus.  If they tweeted they were high on a prospect I would add that prospect to my list of draft prospects and then go to work reading as much as I could and watching as much game film as I could get my hands on.

Example:

 

 

 

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Draft Kings Lineup

Swag Dome Lineup

Wed Lineup

 

PG- A lot of choices tonight, but Kyrie has been coming on and has been playing the SG position where he can get into better spots to score.  Not in love with the price, but no PG on the Lakers can stay with him.

SF- Rudy Gay going against the team that gave up on him in less than a season.  I like the payback factor here and Gay has been a beast since coming back from an Achilles strain.

PF-Sullinger is a guy that can be maddening in DFS, but he had a huge game against the 76ers last time out so I am going to hope he keeps it up.

C-The  minutes restriction seems to be over Varejao and he is facing a depleted Laker front line.

F-Kyle Singler gets the start for the Pistons and should be able to hit above value pretty easily.

This lineup obviously fades all the big names on Draft Kings tonight which isn’t usually the best strategy, but this is the lineup that had the most upside for me.   Good luck everyone.

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DraftKings NBA DFS

With football season all but over and MLB still a few months away this new daily fantasy sports addict needed an outlet.  Luckily for me DraftKings was the perfect place to get my feet wet in NBA DFS.  While the winnings have been relatively small compared to my end of season in MLB DFS and NFL DFS, it has been a very fun ride.  

Here are some of my favorite plays and reasons for playing them tonight

Just The Guards Tonight

stephen curry

PG 

Stephen Curry 9,000

Curry is 1,000 budget dollars cheaper than he has been in recent games and that is a huge bonus for daily players.  He has one of the highest (if not highest) ceilings of any PG in DFS and DraftKings is basically bating you to use him.  Great small tournament play especially.

Kyle Lowry 7,400

Lowry has kicked it into another gear ever since General Grievous (Greivis Vasquez) was traded to the Raptors.  Lowry is a solid play against Minny as Rubio takes a few too many chances on D and loves to go under the pick in pick and roll situations.

Darren Collison 5,500

Collison has been very steady since taking over for the injured Chris Paul, but his ceiling is no where near as high as Curry’s.  It all depends on where you want to spend tonight.

SG

Again Stephen Curry and his discounted 9,000 figure.

DeMar DeRozen 7,600

DeRozen should hit value tonight against the Timberwolves, but he is not going to blow away his value numbers like some other SG’s might.

Jodie Meeks 5,800

Meeks has been in a lot of my lineups lately and he has been pretty steady.  With Nick Young suspended Meeks will benefit from a few more scoring opportunities .  His price is starting to get into the range where I may look elsewhere.

Avery Bradley 5,100

With Rondo back people may finally stop riding Bradley, but tonight is not the night to fade him.  Rondo will probably play between 20-25 minutes and Bradley will be a huge part of this offense with Rondo in or out of the game.

I also love JJ Redick for 5,000 against a tired and humiliated Knicks team.  Iman Shumpert is a good perimeter defender, but he may be licking his wounds after what the Pacers did to him and his teammates last night.

Feel free to tweet me @coachesser with any questions about which forwards or centers I have in play tonight.

 

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Fantasy Football Week 16

Before I look ahead to the key Week 16 match ups I want to take a look back at who we have to thank for getting us to a championship and who we can blame for virtually ending our seasons.

What a crazy week for quarterbacks.

It was no surprise when Nick Foles topped 400 yards and threw three touchdowns for the Eagles against a banged-up Minnesota Vikings secondary. The big surprise was Matt Cassel keeping pace with more than 380 yards and three combined touchdowns rushing and throwing. Cassel has actually resurrected the fantasy wide receiver life in Minnesota by making Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson attractive flex plays recently.

When I looked at the Arizona Cardinals traveling to Tennessee to play the Titans last week I did not see a game where I would want to start either quarterback. While I was right with Carson Palmer having a pedestrian day, I was way wrong with Ryan Fitzpatrick as he lit up the Cardinals for more than 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. The big takeaway from the game was that Kendall Wright looked healthy again and Delanie Walker was once again a tight end one when he came back in to the lineup.

The Atlanta Falcons versus the Washington Redskins game was actually one where I could see starting either quarterback. The Falcons’ receivers were finally getting healthy and Matt Ryan had looked better of late, but he put up a stinker this week when you compare his output to other quarterbacks around the league. Kirk Cousins on the other hand had the production that we had hoped Robert Griffin III would have put up if he wasn’t shut down for the rest of the season. Cousins not only put up big numbers himself, but got Pierre Garcon back into the conversation as week in and week out must start at wide receiver. Now if only Jordan Reed could get over his concussion symptoms to make that passing attack even better for your fantasy championship.

The two worst performances by quarterbacks who may have featured in some semifinal lineups actually came in the last game of the week. Matthew Stafford looked like he wasn’t quite over the snow game against Philadelphia as he became the poster boy for bad quarterback mechanics against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday. He was dancing around the pocket and throwing the ball sidearm as if he was playing a beach game with his buddies and not playing on Monday Night Football against the World Champions. Joe Flacco on the other hand did his best impression of a quarterback that thinks that field goals are actually better than touchdowns. The Lions have been a nice match up for opposing quarterbacks this year, but that didn’t prove to be the case for Flacco as he failed to hit Torrey Smith regularly and didn’t get Dennis Pitta involved enough.

If you went against Jamaal Charles in the semifinals this week I feel very sorry for you. When you’re going against a player who is having his performance compared to Gale Sayers’ epic six-touchdown game you know you’re in trouble. The funniest thing about his whole day was he wasn’t even the leading rusher on his team. That went to Knile Daviswho finished with only 34 yards, but did score a touchdown.

Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray were unbelievable as they matched up in Dallas. Both ran for more than 130 yards and a touchdown, but it was Lacy and the Packers who came out on top. Who knows how fantasy matchups would have worked out if the Cowboys had actually tried to run the ball instead of throwing two costly interceptions late.

Two running backs who disappointed were the the Giants‘ Andre Brown and New England’s Shane Vereen. While Brown had a tough matchup on paper it actually shouldn’t have been as difficult as the Giants made it look. Teams had been able to run the ball against the Seahawks this year, yet the Giants could not find any running room. TheMiami Dolphins decided to take Vereen away from the New England Patriots and that hurt a lot of fantasy owners. Vereen has been a PPR monster lately, but most likely cost you a trip to the finals with his meager day.

Enough looking back, lets look ahead to this week’s schedule and see who we will be thanking for winning us a championship.

 

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning had his worst day of the season this past week, but he should bounce back against the Houston Texans to solidify his status of fantasy football 2013 MVP.

Nick Foles will most likely be involved in a shoot out against the Chicago Bears this week and I would feel very comfortable with him at the helm. This might actually be the time for me to eat some crow as I have been very reluctant to put Foles over Brees in any of my rankings, but it’s better late than never. Foles is a great play this week. If you have him in your lineup I would be very comfortable.

Did you see Alex Smith throw five touchdowns last week against the Oakland Raiders? Well if you missed it Phillip Rivers might show you an instant replay this week. Rivers and the Chargers should be able to throw the ball all over the field against the Raiders and I just hope the Raiders can make a game of it so that Rivers doesn’t have to take his foot off the gas.

Cousins gets the Dallas Cowboys this week and just in time to possibly win you a championship. While Cousins has a low floor because of his small sample size and questionable receivers, apart from Garcon, he has an extremely high ceiling going against the Cowboys defense.

The last quarterback I would like to have starting this week is Andy Dalton of theCincinnati Bengals. You might be surprised by the fact that Andy Dalton is the tenth ranked fantasy quarterback though week 15. This week he gets to face the Minnesota Vikings in a very important home game and I expect him to put up numbers similar to what Foles put up last week.

[NOTE: If Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play this week he immediately becomes my second-favorite quarterback for this week].

McCoy

 

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy and Charles have carried you this far and they will probably carry you to a championship this week. Both have nice matchups, with McCoy benefiting from facing a terrible Chicago Bears run defense.

While Frank Gore had a very average day last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I expect him to run over and around the Falcons this weekend.

The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys should both feature fantasy running backs who will score a lot of points this weekend when they face each other.Alfred Morris and Murray have each been hot and cold this season, but this weekend should prove to be one of their best days.

If you’re looking for a high-ceiling boom or bust guy I might be willing to put C.J. Spillerback in my lineups this weekend. He hasn’t produced since he ripped the Atlanta Falcons in Toronto, but the Miami Dolphins going into Buffalo might be his chance.

Wide Receivers

What more can I say about Josh Gordon? He is incredible. This week he gets a New York Jets secondary that has been torched all season. It’s no coincidence that when you look at the two teams in any championship game that Gordon will more than likely be on one of the rosters.

I absolutely love A.J. Green this week. He is truly poetry in motion when you watch him play the wide receiver position and he gets a secondary that was exposed by DeSean Jackson last week. Everything points to a huge day for Green.

Jay Cutler is back under center so you know that bodes well for Brandon Marshall. Marshall saw 12 targets last week while his running mate Alshon Jeffrey only saw five.

Demaryius Thomas had a rough week last week, but I think Peyton Manning will want to get him involved early and often against the Houston Texans. I am very confident that we will get an A-typical outing from Demaryius this week.

Injury News and Waiver Wire Advice

Jordan Cameron is going through the concussion protocol after being diagnosed with one on Monday. He is in real danger of missing this week’s game and you should loo to the waiver-wire for reinforcements. The only bad thing is your waiver wire may have been picked clean by the teams that lost Rob Gronkowski or the teams that made pick ups to block the Gronkowski owner from getting a certain tight end.

The main names that should be available in your leagues, and that I would recommend, are:

Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles has become a favorite red zone target for Nick Foles in Philadelphia and has a nice match up this week against the Chicago Bears.

Andrew Quarless of the Green Bay Packers has had back to back nice weeks, but his value would really spike if Aaron Rodgers was able to play this week. I’m not sure I could set a championship lineup with Quarless as my tight end this week.

The big situation I am looking at for a replacement is in Houston where Matt Schaub is back as the signal caller. If Owen Daniels or Garrett Graham are able to go this week than they are my main waiver wire targets.

Larry Fitzgerald suffered a concussion last week, but Bruce Arians expects him to play this week. I wouldn’t be too excited about getting him back in my lineups as he is facing he Seattle Seahawks this week.

Ben Tate of the Houston Texans is headed to IR and it looks like Dennis Johnson will take over at runningback there. I wouldn’t put Johnson in a lineup unless I was desperate because of injuries.

If Maurice Jones-Drew can’t go this week Jordan Todman will actually be someone that I would be excited to have in my lineups. Todman proved that he could handle the load last week as he rushed for more than 100 yards and was very useful in the passing game.

Rueben Randle and Robert Woods could be forced into a feature wide receiver role this week. Randle will have to play in Victor Cruz’s place because of injury while Woods will become the wide receiver one in Buffalo because Stevie Johnson will be in California because of a death in his family.

I just want to thank everyone for reading my fantasy advice this season and hope it helped you win a championship. Let me know which, if any of my recommendations helped you win your home leagues.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football Week 15

Fantasy Football Week 15

Well that was an interesting week of football. A snow-bowl in Philadelphia, a game that had five lead changes in the last two minutes (Minnesota and Baltimore), and another Tom Brady miracle comeback. Huge injuries to big stars. (Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Rob Gronkowski.) Players like Cordarrelle Patterson, Da’Rick Rogers, and Justin Hunter had huge performances when they were supposed to be stashes for next year.

Instead of looking back this week, I am only going to look forward to this week’s games and who should be in your lineups.

Josh McCown

Quarterbacks

Let’s start with the latest news about Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is still feeling pain in his shoulder and isn’t medically cleared to play. The fact that the Packers play the Dallas Cowboys this week makes it even harder to swallow. Rodgers presence in the Packers’ lineup would elevate every single offensive player’s fantasy outlook. Jordy Nelson might be the only receiver that would seem safe to keep in your lineups if Rodgers doesn’t play.

Josh McCown has been so red-hot lately that fantasy owners are hoping Jay Cutler’s ankle problems can linger just long enough to help them win a title. McCown has especially been important to Alshon Jeffrey owners, as Jeffrey has flourished with McCown under center. His grasp and control of the offense was on full display on Monday night against a depleted Cowboys defense as he racked up five total touchdowns. This week he faces a tough Cleveland defense that is a little under-manned as well.

Drew Brees bounced back from a miserable game against Seattle with a vintage performance against a tough Carolina defense, once again cementing his place as an almost unbenchable fantasy commodity. His connection with Jimmy Graham has been amazing to watch over the last few years and should keep right on rolling this week against the St. Louis Rams.

Nick Foles showed a great bit of guts last week against the Detroit Lions. Playing in nearly six inches of fresh snow powder, Foles led the Eagles to a victory with a great second-half performance. While his numbers on the day would pale in comparison to Manning, Brees and McCown, they outdid his rival on the field Matthew Stafford by a great deal. Foles is a quarterback one in the fantasy playoffs, but I wouldn’t play him over Brees or Manning. When we start talking about Brady without Gronkowski and Cam Newton then I can get on board.

Speaking of Cam Newton, he didn’t play up to his recent standards last week against theSaints and gets a Jets defense that can stop the run. This may be a game where we see Newton have to throw the ball downfield to Greg Olsen and Brandon Lafell. Ted Ginn may get some looks as well as the Jets have been torched the last few weeks in the deep passing game.

Phillip Rivers is going to be high on everyone’s lists because he will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Denver Broncos offense on Thursday night. I’m not as excited as everyone else. The short week coupled with an opponent that is familiar with the quarterback and the offense he is running doesn’t scream must start to me. The shoulder injury to Keenan Allen and the goose egg put up last week by Ladarius Green have me even more on the fence. I have Rivers as my 11th best quarterback for Week 15.

What do we do with Tom Brady after the Gronkowski injury? You definitely need to bump him down a few spots in your rankings. You simply can’t make up for the loss of Gronkowski with lesser players. Look at the numbers Brady put up early in the year and add 60 yards and half a touchdown for the emergence of Edelman and the return of Vereen and Amendola, but you can’t add much more. I have Brady below Rivers this week and you know Rivers is right on the edge for me as a must start.

Adrian Peterson

Running Backs

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle sprain this past Sunday and it could mean that he misses this week or is at least limited against the Cowboys.James Starks becomes a must handcuff for the Lacy owner.

Adrian Peterson’s mid-foot sprain is a bit more worrisome for for fantasy owners. He is currently wearing a walking boot and ESPN believes he is out this week. His direct backup, Toby Gerhart, suffered a hamstring injury, but it doesn’t seem like it’s a major issue. He should be owned in all leagues.

Reggie Bush once again was injured just when you needed him the most. I’m not even sure that’s an accurate statement, but it feels that way. Bush aggravated a calf injury in warmups before the Lions faced the Eagles and Joique Bell was forced into snow-plow duty. Bell had a nice fantasy day even though he fumbled twice. Bush gets the maximum number of hours to rest his injured calf as the Lions don’t play until Monday night and you should start him if he’s a go.

Maurice Jones-Drew injured his hamstring on Thursday night after he manged to finally break the 100-yard rushing mark in a game this season. While the Jones-Drew injury doesn’t look like a big deal on the surface it will be a major concern for managers in very deep leagues. Even in leagues where you are forced to play three running backs his absence can be major. Jordan Todman is MJD’s direct backup and he is a talented running back in his own right. He could be the spot starter this week against Buffalo.

Rashad Jennings should play this week after missing last week with a concussion. He does get a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The question marks at quarterback for the Raiders also put a damper on any hopes for a big game.

Shane Vereen has been a PPR monster since he came back off of short-term injured reserve. He has 40 receptions in just five games. He has been everything that I hoped he would be when I targeted him in drafts this preseason. I just hope everyone reading this had the patience to keep him on their roster when he was on IR. With Gronkowski on injured reserve Vereen could become even more involved in the passing game.

 

Wide Receivers

Last week I talked up Michael Floyd without really knowing how bad his ankle injury was. Floyd says he played this past week at about 90 percent, but when I watched the film he looked about 75 percent of himself. With two tough matchups coming up the next two weeks he should be considered a wide receiver three. Larry Fitzgerald might continue to benefit, as he did this past week.

Julian Edelman continued his strong play against the Browns and could see a bigger role in the offense with Gronkowski injured. I really like him in PPR leagues as a WR3 where I was counting on some under-performing wide receivers.

Wes Welker has suffered another concussion and it looks like he should miss this week’s game against the San Diego Chargers. When Welker went out it wasn’t a wide receiver who filled in the slot, it was tight end Jacob Tamme.

The Minnesota Vikings look like they are in evaluation mode with Cordarrelle Patterson at the wide receiver position. He has been getting more and more snaps and looks like the offensive weapon everyone envisioned when they saw him at the University of Tennessee. He could be that magic add that wins you a title as flex play where you lost a player to injury.

The Colts seem to have finally figured out what every football fan who has ever watched Darius Heyward-Bey already knew — Heyward-Bey is a terrible wide receiver. Da’Rick Rogers and LaVon Brazill erased any images of Heyward-Bey as they combined for over 150 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers is the more interesting prospect for me and is  is my number three wide receiver pickup for this week.

The last rookie wide receiver that seems to be coming into his own is Justin Hunter.Kendall Wright has an ankle injury and Kenny Britt doesn’t even dress for games anymore. Hunter had eight targets this past week, topped 100 yards and scored for the second time in three weeks. He is a bit boom or bust, but I would pick him up if you are in a desperate situation.

Michael Crabtree played more than 88 percent of San Francisco’s offensive snaps last weekend and had eight targets from Colin Kaepernick. I am still scared to rely on him this week, but I could see using him with his uptick in usage.

images

Tight Ends

Let’s talk about the Rob Gronkowski injury and the lingering Jordan Reed concussion.

With both of these top 10 tight ends out or questionable going forward I will give you my replacements from the waiver wire.

Before the preseason even started I was drafting teams and Dennis Pitta was my go to tight end in the middle rounds. Before he injured his hip in the first live practice of the preseason Pitta was being drafted as the seventh tight end off the board in the seventh round of twelve team drafts. Pitta showed that he is still Joe Flacco’s go-to guy in his first game back. Pitta played 36 snaps with the Ravens throwing the ball 33 times. They targeted Pitta 10 times in those 33 plays.

It’s a long shot that this guy is still on your waiver wire, but if he is you should go toCharles Clay next. Clay is currently the fifth-ranked fantasy tight end in PPR leagues yet he isn’t owned in a ton of 10-team leagues. After his big performance last week against Pittsburgh I am a little scared that I would be chasing last week’s points by targeting him first.

Delanie Walker was being scooped up all over the place a few weeks back, but a concussion has seen him dropped in a lot of leagues. He should be back this week and gets to face a Cardinals team that will be without stand out slot corner Tyrann Mathieu. With the chemistry he showed with Ryan Fitzpatrick I would be more than happy to have him in my lineups where I lost Gronkowski.

Garrett Graham is the next tight end that could be a nice fill in for Gronkowski. He has all the factors you look for.in a tight end. He’s in an offense that features a tight end. He is the second option in an offense that can move the ball. The only thing I don’t like is the way Andre Johnson can dominate a game. If Johnson gets going it can be tough to notice if there are any other receivers on the field.

Last but not least is Jacob Tamme. Tamme could be the short term fill-in you are looking for if you are low on Faab Budget money in your leagues or know that you have low waiver priority. Tamme took over in the slot with Welker out and could have a very nice PPR game against San Diego on Thursday night. The only issue is he is truly a one week fill in and then you are back to the drawing board next week.

I want to wish you all luck in your semifinal matchups. (except if you are facing me!)  Make sure you listen to Trick Plays this week because last week we nailed Rod Streaterand Marcel Reese as sleepers that could help your teams in Week 14.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football Week 14

Fantasy Football Week 14

Alshon Jeffrey TD

Well I hope you didn’t indulge too much on Thanksgiving, because some of Sunday’s fantasy performances could have given you a heart attack. Whether it was watching your players become invisible (Eddie Lacy, Nate Burleson, or Stevan Ridley) or cheering on some record setting performances (Adrian Peterson, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffrey) it would have been safer to be near a medical professional.

Looking Back

Obviously the Packers‘ offense was a huge disappointment. Matt Flynn showed why he has been cut or traded three times in the calendar year with his pitiful performance. His ineptitude let an already strong run defense really clamp down on Eddie Lacy. The Packers receivers got many fantasy teams off to a horrible start in Week 13 because of Flynn’s play. On the other side of the ball, the big three for Detroit all showed why they have been fantasy studs all year. Matthew Stafford threw for over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns, Reggie Bush topped 100 yards rushing and added more than 50 yards receiving to go along with a touchdown, and Calvin Johnson was money in the bank with over 100 yards and a touchdown. The only disappointment was Nate Burleson’s goose egg. While many fantasy owners kept him on the bench in his return to the Lions‘ lineup in Week 12, almost everyone had slotted him in for a decent day as a WR3 or flex play on Thanksgiving.

It really seems hard to believe that the New York Jets are the same team that went into Atlanta and beat a Falcons team that still had a healthy Julio Jones. The Jets and especially Geno Smith have been awful ever since. Even in the Jets big win over the New Orleans Saints, the Jets won in spite of Geno, not because of him. His struggles have really put a damper on any late season upside from the Jets’ skill position players. Chris Ivory looked like he could be a decent standard scoring running back down the stretch, but with a quarterback who can’t sustain drives he moves back into a bench player.

I really hope you weren’t counting on Stevan Ridley to help you win a fantasy football championship. I had talked about his fumbling issues at length on the podcast and knew that if I was fed up watching him week in and week out that the Patriots had to finally be at the end of their rope. You just can’t win games turning the ball over. We as Giants‘ fans know that rule all too well. Ridley has been banished to the inactive list and very possibly could have carried the ball for the last time in a Patriots’ uniform.

I found the perfect way for you to get your struggling fantasy players to get going. You just make them play a game in Canada and all of a sudden their numbers go through the roof.C.J. Spiller and Steven Jackson have been huge disappointments this season, yet they may have helped you sneak into your playoffs by putting up the exact numbers you expected from them all year (Spiller 149 yards and 1 TD, Jackson had 84 yards and 2 TDs).  You must also remember that they have cheap meds in Canada and obviously Roddy White got his hands on some that enabled him to catch 10 balls for 143 yards.

I really can’t remember a bigger scoring week in fantasy football. I go back in this game a long way and there have always been weeks where two or three guys go off, but to have four studs go absolutely nuts in a week that decides the playoffs is just awesome. Anyone who played against Peyton Manning and Eric Decker deserves your sympathy. They combined for NINE touchdowns.  NINE!  If you faced Alshon Jeffrey or Josh Gordon you were probably prepared for 100 yards and a touchdown, but not more than 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. You just can’t compete with a team that has a receiver do that. It takes three of your players having a normal week to even it out.

Daily Fantasy Sports Games at FanDuel.com

Looking Forward

Of all the guys that could help you wrap up a first-round win it could be DeMarco Murray who I like the best. Murray has been running pretty well and is coming off a huge 3 TD performance, but it’s the defense that he’s facing that has me excited.  The Bears defense has literally been a running backs’ dream this season. Running backs gaining more than 100 yards and racking up touchdowns have come so easy that I was willing to bet anyone that Peterson would have more than 200 yards last week against them. Sure enough he managed more than 200 yards, but was overshadowed by all of the wide receiver performances around the league. Murray should feast with a very good run-blocking offensive line, but they will be facing an extremely motivated opponent in Jay Ratliff.

Carson Palmer has been very steady the last few weeks and has a nice matchup at home against a Rams defense that could be drained from a tough battle with the 49ers last week. His growing relationship with Michael Floyd has made for a powerful 1-2 combo the last few weeks.

Which ever quarterback starts for the Bears should be in your lineup if you don’t have a stud or a good matchup with your quarterback. McCown has been outstanding and Cutler won’t be starting unless he is 100 percent. With Forte matching up against those linebackers, Dallas may never be able to get off the field on defense.

While Eddie Lacy had a tough matchup on Thanksgiving, he has a very nice match up this weekend. Lacy gets to face the Atlanta Falcons who were absolutely gashed by theBuffalo Bills in Toronto. Lacy is a must start with RB1 written all over him while James Starks could even get in on the action if you need a someone in a very deep league.

Time to reassess

Managing a fantasy football team is a little bit like running an actual football team. The importance of self-scouting cannot be overlooked. You need to constantly be re-evaluating your players to see what you actually have. Has the player that was your WR1 the first few weeks actually become your WR4? Has your back up QB outplayed your starter the last few weeks? You need to take a good hard look at your squad before the playoffs and decide what roles they have moving forward.

For example:

Julian Edelman – He has probably burnt up your bench the last two weeks and should now be considered a low-end WR2 in PPR leagues moving forward. It’s clear that the Patriots have a game plan on how to get the ball in his hands and he shouldn’t be discounted just because you picked him up off of waivers.

Michael Floyd – This guy had a huge fan base in the dynasty community, but his redraft value was pretty low entering the year. Before the season many believed that Andre Roberts would eat into any redraft value this year, but that has not been the case. He didn’t make a big impact right away this season, but all the metrics pointed out that he could see an uptick in production based on his usage. Now he is riding a nice hot streak and should be a WR2 moving forward with even more value in standard leagues.

Nick Foles –  If you take away Foles performance against the Dallas Cowboys before he got injured, you would have a clear-cut fantasy stud quarterback. There have been two things holding back fantasy players and experts alike from anointing him a top fantasy quarterback. The presence of Michael Vick and Foles’ performance against the Cowboys. You see most experts expected a huge week from Foles against the Cowboys. Most, like me, had him ruin our daily fantasy lineups that week. That sting tends to stay with you and just now are we ready to say that that performance was more of an anomaly than his seven touchdown game against the Raiders. Foles is my QB7 going forward, but please don’t ask me if you should start him over Drew Brees or Peyton Manning.

Waiver Wire

This late in the season the wire should be plucked pretty thin, but here are a few names that may help you. LeGarrette Blount may actually be the beneficiary of the Ridley banishment. Blount is especially valuable in standard leagues as he could see more goal-line work. Ace Sanders has become an asset in PPR Leagues as Chad Henne has thrown the ball his way quite a bit lately. His 8 receptions for 60 yards may not make him Calvin Johnson, but he is more useful than some of the names collecting dust on your rosters.Andre Holmes of the Raiders burst on the scene on Thanksgiving and could have nice value moving forward if Denarious Moore isn’t able to play. Either way, Holmes size makes him a red-zone target so he should be rostered.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: Week 13 Thoughts

The holidays tend to be stressful for a lot of people. They are supposed to be the times we cherish and look forward to, but in reality the planning and logistics can lead many people to lose their cool. Now imagine throwing in a must-win fantasy football match up into the mix. Your grandmother is asking you to pass the cranberry sauce and you’re screaming at the television as Calvin Johnson, once again, gets tackled at the 1-yard line.

Before we start stuffing our turkey let’s take a look back at week 12 in the NFL.

Nice Surprises

Tiquan Underwood

The Detroit Lions have had a lot of trouble covering receivers lately and this week was no different. The only surprise was that it was Tiquan Underwood who burned them for three receptions for 108 yards and two TDs instead of Vincent Jackson. Underwood and Tim Wright were both nice match up plays in deep leagues last week and they both paid off. The other good thing to come out of that game for fantasy owners and for Tampa fans is that Mike Glennon continues to play mistake-free football.

The San Diego Chargers pulled off a huge upset this past Sunday and their quarterback, Phillip Rivers, once again proved that he is back to being one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league. Rivers was firmly planted on fantasy benches as he was facing a tough Kansas City defense in Kansas City, but put up the best passing numbers of the week of any quarterback in the league. He threw for 392 yards and three touchdowns helping him to become the fourth overall fantasy quarterback through week 12.

The Tennessee Titans were able to carve up the Oakland Raiderssecondary this past Sunday, but it wasn’t just Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker doing the damage. Ryan Fitzpatrick found rookie Justin Hunter six times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Hunter looked to be buried on the depth chart to start the year, but has worked his way into a significant role in their offense. His emergence has helped seal the fate of former Rutgers star Kenny Britt.

The last surprise really came out of no where. Everyone in the fantasy world was excited for the Denver Broncos to go into Foxboro and play the New England Patriots on Sunday night. Fantasy numbers were going to be ringing up faster than a cash register at Walmart on Black Friday. While everyone was hoping Danny Amendola would do his best Wes Welkerimpersonation, it was the old Wes Welker fill-in, Julian Edelman doing his spot on impression. Edelman caught nine balls for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

Disappointments

One of the biggest busts of the weekend was Victor Cruz. The absence of Hakeem Nicks and the strong wind gusts had a lot to do with Cruz’s sub-par numbers. The fumble on his first reception of the game didn’t help him either. Some reason for hope was provided by 4for4.com’s John Paulsen.

 

 

 

Another receiver who had his worst game of the season was Andre Johnson. Johnson caught just two balls for 36 yards as the Texans lost to the Jaguars. Johnson has become more openly frustrated with what’s happening in Houston and I’m a little scared that he’s letting it affect his play. Johnson gets the very physical Aqib Talib this week when he faces the New England Patriots. If Talib does as good a job on Johnson as he did on Demaryius Thomas last week then Johnson could be in for a tough day.

Andrew Luck had one of his worst games as a professional this past weekend. He barely reached a 50 percent completion percentage by going 20 for 39 and only managed 163 yards through the air against a very toughArizona Cardinals defense. The Colts have become so one-dimensional that it is now affecting Luck and his receivers. The lack of a running game has defenses teeing off on passing downs. Coby Fleener continues to play at a tight end 1 level and should be considered a fantasy starter from here on out.

My biggest disappointment has to be Robert Griffin III. Whether it’s his knee holding him up or just a case of him regressing we can no longer keep him in a borderline QB1 category. I really am at a loss for words when it comes to Griffin. I blame it on Adrian Peterson’s performance last year coming off of ACL surgery.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day and the rest of week 13.

I was so looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers carve up the Lion’s secondary this Thanksgiving, but alas, that won’t be the case. Rodgers isn’t cleared for contact and it looks like Matt Flynn may get the start. Flynn looked pretty good in relief this past weekend and should be able to put up good numbers against a bad Detroit secondary. One thing Detroit has been doing well is stopping the run and that means Eddie Lacy won’t be able to build on the momentum of his performance against the Vikings. I still have Lacy as a high end RB2 this week, but he very easily could be an RB1 if he gets in the end zone.

Looking at the other side of the ball Matthew Stafford has quietly been the third-best quarterback in fantasy football this season and is just now getting back a receiver that is actually fantasy relevant as a counterpart to the amazing Calvin Johnson. Nate Burleson had a very nice game coming back from his broken arm and looks like he could settle in as a nice flex play the rest of the season in PPR leagues.

The Giants ran the ball down the Cowboys throats and I expect the Raiders to pick up where the Giants left off. Rashad Jennings has been extremely good since he took over for the injured Darren McFadden and could be a middle of the pack RB1 this Thursday. Rod Streater has been playing well since Matt McGloin took over at quarterback and should be a low end WR3 going forward with McGloin at the helm. In the same game Tony Romo has a tremendous match up and should be able to feature Dez Bryant against a shaky Raiders’ secondary.

Antonio Brown

The Pittsburgh Baltimore night game has slug-fest written all over it. Antonio Brown is on a tear right now for the Pittsburgh Steelers and should be able to handle an improving Ravens‘ secondary. Le’Veon Bell has been very solid as RB2 in both standard and PPR formats, but could be facing one of his tougher tests as Baltimore tends to play tough at home. Ben Roethlisbergerhas been playing at a very high level and should receiver consideration from fantasy owners as a possible replacement for their struggling QB1. On the other side of the ball Ray Rice and the Ravens offensive line continue to struggle running the ball.  They have struggled so badly that the Ravens have turned to back up QB Tyrod Taylor to kick start their running game. Joe Flacco didn’t look very happy lining up at wide receiver, but the Raven need to do whatever it takes to move the ball. Torrey Smith continues to get better as wide receiver and should be nice WR2 for the rest of the season. Hopefully the Ravens will get Dennis Pitta back soon to help open things up for everyone.

One of my favorite match ups this weekend is the bears against the Vikings.Josh McCown has been able to put up very good numbers since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler and this week he has a tremendous match up to exploit. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte have all been able to keep up their production with McCown pulling the trigger. On the other side of the ball Adrian Peterson gets to face aChicago Bears defense that has been an absolute ATM to fantasy running backs. Zac Stacy would have put up 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns last week if he didn’t leave the game concussed in the second quarter. Peterson owes the Bears some payback after struggling with his footing in their earlier match up this season.

Waiver Wire

Zac Stacy owners should pick up Benny Cunningham just in case he doesn’t get cleared for this week. Nate Burleson should be a very high priority for wide receiver needy teams. Michael Crabtree should be owned in all leagues as he was just put on the active roster for the 49ers. The 49ers don’t put the ball in the air all that often so don’t expect big dividends right away.

***I just wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone reading this post a very happy holiday.***

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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