Waiver Wire Adds and Drops
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Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

Fantasy Football

Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

Fantasy Football: Waiver Wire Adds and Drops

The hangover from an exciting week one in Fantasy Football is hitting me like a flying kick from Antonio Brown. The surprises (Allen Hurns and Justin Forsett), the disappointments (Jamaal Charles and Dez Bryant), and of course the injuries (Eddie Lacy, Jordan Reed, Ben Tate, Doug Martin, Jordan Cameron and Alshon Jeffrey) all made for a mentally exhausting Sunday. As they say, a little hair of the dog is good for what ails you and tonight we get a double shot of Monday Night Football to cure the hangover. In case you didn’t get enough intrigue this off season we have two questionable fantasy starters in Antonio Gates and Andre Ellington. I would look for Gates to play limited snaps, but I’m not as optimistic on Ellington and his ailing foot. (Weird, because usually it’s Gates’s foot that we would have been griping about.)

With the breaking news that Ray Rice has been suspended indefinitely and his contract has been terminated by the Baltimore Ravens (Finally), we have to discuss their current backfield options.

Bernard Pierce – Pierce got the start after recovering from a concussion he suffered in the preseason, but he picked up right where he left off last season. He plodded his way to 17 yards on six carries and was non-existent in the passing game. The Ravens have a lot of trouble running to their left side and Pierce is so one dimensional right now that teams can bottle him up. He’s still a hold for me because of the opportunity here, but I think you will be kicking yourself for not taking Knowshon Moreno on draft day instead of Pierce.

Justin Forsett– Forsett was signed to be Ray Rice passing game insurance and now the Ravens are forced to make due after the revelations of the TMZ video. Forsett is a journeyman change of pace back that has a nice set of hands and is surprising when he is given a chance to carry the ball. Forsett ran for 71 yards on 12 carries (again his production was better to the right side with 7 carries for 44 yards and one TD) and caught five passes for 14 yards. Forsett looks to be the immediate beneficiary of the Rice departure, by solidifying his role and because the Ravens may be forced to pass the ball in order to move it.

Lorenzo Taliaferro-Taliaferro is a favorite of many of the dynasty fantasy football minds that I talk to because he is the type of running back who can get what’s blocked and push a pile when needed. The ability to fall forward and make oneself small when entering the hole is very important when the size of the holes aren’t what they used to be. Taliaferro is worth a stash in deep leagues and should see his number called before too long.

Terrance West-You might be wondering why Terrance West would be on a waiver wire article after all the hype in the preseason, but believe it or not he’s available in a lot of 10 team leagues. He’s 80% owned on ESPN and that climbed 10% in the last day. Ben Tate was always an injury concern, and West is the direct beneficiary. The 100 yard day will make him pretty expensive and the questionable status of Tate makes the price a little murky, but I would be in buy mode with West.

Isaiah Crowell– Crowell was not in the original game plan, but he was called upon when Tate went down with a knee injury. Crowell showed why many draft pundits wanted to see him get a shot in the late rounds as he rushed five times for 32 yards and two touchdowns. The emergence of Crowell really hurts the prospects for Tate, even when he’s healthy because this backfield could become a true RBBC situation. I would stash Crowell in very deep leagues, such as 16 team leagues or 14 team leagues.

Andrew Hawkins– Hawkins was specifically targeted by the Cleveland Browns organization during free agency and they did something a little unorthadox by signing him to a restricted free agent offer sheet. Hawkins has always had the reputation of being almost uncoverable in the slot, but he never got the type of targets or snaps that he needed in Cincy. On Sunday in Pittsburgh it was obvious that he is the first or second option on most passing plays as he caught eight passes on nine targets for 87 yards with 30 of those yards in YAC. Hawkins is a must roster in full PPR leagues and is even rosterable in .5 PPR 10 team leagues. His 11% ownership on ESPN is bound to swell.

Brian Quick– Quick is one of those guys that has frustrated many dynasty fantasy football players for years. His immense upside has been hard to ignore, but his failure to emerge when surrounded by mediocre talent has been worthy of some hair pulling. Sunday Quick led the Rams wide receiver corps in snaps at 48/70 and he dominated the targets as well. He out targeted Kenny Britt 9 to 2 and caught seven of those targets for 99 yards while Britt was shut out. Quick could go from a remember that name type of guy to a big time wide receiver three or four in 12 team fantasy leagues if he keeps this up. I would take a flyer in almost all leagues and especially where I took a shot on Britt.

Benny Cunningham– Cunningham played more snaps than second round fantasy pick, Zac Stacy, but Stacy out touched Cunningham 12-9. Cunningham showed well in the passing game as he secured four passes for 30 yards and he benefited by an early drop from Stacy. The situation has truly become a RBBC and Cunningham benefits from the Rams struggles as he will be used in the passing game more, he already outsnapped Stacy 21-13 in the opening game. Take a shot on Cunningham in full PPR, especially if you went Zero-RB. He could be a poor man’s Woodhead if this continues.

Allen Hurns– Talk about a breakout performance by a guy that wasn’t even expected to make the team. The Jaguars jumped all over the Eagles early as Hurns exploded for four receptions for 110 yards and two touch downs. Hurns was a surprise starter as Cecil Shorts III once again came up lame. Hurns probably wouldn’t have even been in line to play if Allen Robinson hadn’t been injured in training camp. All that is in the past as Hurns has done nothing but impress since he was given a chance. I’m not running out to grab Hurns, because of the crowded WR corps, but I wouldn’t blame you if you did. He is big and fast and it will be hard to keep him off the field after this performance. He is a must roster in all leagues larger than 14 teams and could be a sneak add in 12 teamers.

Bobby Rainey– Rainey is the direct back up to Doug Martin and Martin suffered a leg injury on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line struggled on Sunday, but most O-lines will against that Carolina front. Rainey is a pin ball in the passing game and is much stronger than he looks, when he is asked to carry the ball. I like Rainey in leagues where I went Zero-Rb or where i suffered some injuries. Mike James wasn’t fully recovered from a preseason injury on Sunday and could make this a RBBC, but that’s okay. I want the PPR side of this equation anyway.

Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor– Tonight’s game and the coming days are going to be keys to how we treat the situation in Arizona. I tend to think Ellington is more injured than what the Cardinals are letting on and think Dwyer is the guy to pick up, especially in standard leagues. If Ellington misses major time Dwyer would be no better than a bye week fill-in, but you never know if the light finally comes on for the former Steeler.

Chris Ivory– I’m not sure why Ivory is available on the wire, but he should be scooped up as soon as possible. Ivory is the perfect compliment to Chis Johnson for the Jets and your fantasy team will benefit from a fresh ivory running at tired defenders. Ivory was one of the key running backs in my Zero-RB draft approach and he also fell further in drafts as the season approached. The reasons for his fall were obvious. He has a long history of not being able to stay healthy and has a legitimate fantasy running back playing with him. Ivory was listed as the co-starter on Sunday and was outsnapped by Johnson 35-28. Ivory broke a long touchdown run to make his day look better on paper than what it really was, but he did run hard on his other carries. If Geno Smith can take care of the ball Ivory should be a nice flex option, especially in standard leagues.

All stats courtesy of PFF-ProFootballFocus.com

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Week One NFL DFS Value Plays on DraftKings
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Week One NFL DFS Value Plays on DraftKings

Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football DFS

Week One NFL DFS Value Plays on DraftKings

Week One NFL DFS Value Plays For Draft Kings

Renee Miller and I spoke about many of these players last night on The Fantasy Coach Podcast (Listen here), but I figured I could touch on a few names that I just can’t seem to get away from.

My favorite values:

Julius Thomas at 5800- I absolutely love Thomas this year and think Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are going to be putting the pedal to the medal in their first live action since the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks. Thomas has a very good chance to be the top TE in week one and he’s almost 2500 dollars cheaper than Jimmy Graham.

Shaun Hill at 5000- Obviously rock bottom prices for starting QBs don’t come along often. There would have to be a freak mid weak injury for you to see this type of value in season, but to start the season these things happen. Hill is a decent back up QB in the NFL and isn’t afraid to get the ball downfield to his big wide receivers. The Vikings secondary was pretty bad last year and they only upgraded at the slot corner position and I’m not sure it was much of an upgrade.

Mark Ingram at 4200- Ingram looked like a different RB at the end of last season and through out the preseason. The Saints were opening up huge holes and Ingram was running angry and was very decisive when it was his turn in the triumvirate of the Saints’ backfield. Sure he won’t catch many balls with Pierre Thomas there, but he will be running against a run defense that didn’t get much better in the off season when he faces Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense at 3100- Lovie Smith is in town and inherited a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Bucs also spent in the off season on that side of the ball and it showed in the preseason as they didn’t give up a touchdown with their first unit. With Cam Newton a game time decision the Bucs could be going against the turnover machine that is known as Derek Anderson.

Alshon Jeffrey at 7100- Jeffrey may not have the lowest points to dollars spent out of my best buys, but he very well could be the best play of the weekend. I watched the Bills secondary look very shaky in the preseason and Jeffrey looks like he is on the verge of joining the big six wide receiver conversation. He could easily have the best numbers in week one of the DFS slate.

(Ignore the Shaun Droughn Value in the graphic!)

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Cordarrelle Patterson Returns
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Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

Fantasy Football

Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank. While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season. Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value. The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position. This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season. It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season. Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks. Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together. While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey. Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type. In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers. There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

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The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson. Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU. While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC. Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues. The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year. Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two. I think the continued presence of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year. I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool. He can score when ever he touches the ball. He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions. The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season. The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out. If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense. Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher. His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build. Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary. He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.) and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey. This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson. I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case. If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season. He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season. I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4. If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

Fantasy Football: Hits and Misses

While Fantasy Football prognostication is not an exact science it is always good to look back and figure out if your reasoning in making a particular decision was sound. Yesterday the FFCounselor hosted a round table discussion taking a look at some of the biggest hits and misses from the first 6 weeks of the fantasy football season. Liz Lola and Sean McMahon added their excellent insight into looking back before the playoff push begins.