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Episode 057: Fantasy Football with Matt Harmon

Episode 057: The Fantasy Coach PodcastMatt Harmon- Reception Perception
Fantasy Football: Talking Wide Receivers using Reception Perception
Featuring: Matt Harmon(@MattHarmon_BYB) FootballGuys, TheBackyardBanter

About My Guest:  Matt Harmon is 23 years old and has only been writing about fantasy football for a little over a year and he has already come up with a very unique (and possibly groundbreaking) way of looking at the wide receiver position with his Reception Perception Methodology.
Twitter Bio:  Football Writer | Staff | creator | Optimum Scouting | Over-posting dog pictures | We are only at the beginning

Episode Rundown:

Links to articles mentioned by Matt on the podcast:
Amari Cooper (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_nfldraft_amaricooper15)
Dorial Green-Beckham (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_nfldraft_dorialgreen-beckham15).
Michael Crabtree (http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-impending-free-agent-michael-crabtree.html)
Sammy Watkins (http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-sammy-watkins-and-cordarrelle-patterson.html)
Brian Quick (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_brianquickwr14)
Devin Smith (http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-devin-smith-and-the-value-of-a-trump-card-fbg.html)

A special thank you to my good friend C-Quel who provided the amazing intro and closing beat to The Fantasy Coach Podcast.  Also a big thank you to RevoLabels.com for sponsoring the podcast and don’t forget to use the coupon code “coachesser” for 10% off of your purchase.
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Fantasy Football Week 4 Planner

Episode 031: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Week 3 Reaction and Analysis

Fantasy Football Week 4 Planner

Featuring: Seth Klein (@SethDaSportsman) FakePigskin and Razzball.comfakepigskin

About My Guest:  Seth has been playing fantasy sports for over 17 years.  He is the Editor-In-Chief of FakePigskin.com and also covers Fantasy Baseball, Football, and Basketball at Razzball.com.  You can find his rankings on FantasyPros.com.  He has been featured on many podcasts and radio show including the Dear Mr. fantasy Podcast and The Fantasy Black Book on Sirius XM.

Episode Summary:  Seth and I talk about all the important happenings of week 3 of the season and help you get ready for the first big bye week of the fantasy football season in week 4.

Episode Rundown:

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.  

Thank Yous For Episode 031: I want to thank Seth for coming on the week three episode of The Fantasy Coach Podcast, and helping everyone get ready for week four of the Fantasy Football season.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

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The 2014 Standard Flex League Draft

2014 Standard Flex League

First and foremost, I want to thank Jake Ciely, @Allinkid, for inviting me to participate in the Flex Leagues this year.  Jake and The Fntasy Sports Network put on a hell of a draft with a virtual murderer’s row for a list of participants.  The fact that it was a live draft where I would be rubbing elbows and talking fantasy football with so many of the fantasy experts that I converse with on Twitter made it a very unique experience.  The hospitality and of course the excellent food and drink from Hibernia Pub were just the icing on the cake.

A few nights before the draft I got the bad news that I would be picking from the eight spot in the standard scoring Flex League.  Not only was I picking from the eight spot, but I would be picking next to my buddy Pat Thorman from PFF Fantasy for the millionth time this summer.

The eight spot is the ultimate “What’s your flavor” spot in standard scoring fantasy football leagues.  All the sure-fire running backs are off the board and usually Montee Ball is scooped up right in front of the eighth pick.  You can go best running back available, best wide receiver available or go with the ultimate tight end weapon in Jimmy Graham.

On the drive in with Jim Day, @FantasyTaz, and Mike Stein, @FantasyJudgment, I was hoping that some of the owners in front of me would be throwing curve-balls and selecting wide receivers or Jimmy Graham so that I would have an easy decision between Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball at the eight spot.  Unfortunately the first eight picks were pretty typical for a standard scoring league, except for Michael Salfino going with the best wide receiver on the board at number three overall.  Usually that pick doesn’t get made until the middle or late part of the first round in standard leagues so it was an interesting shake it up pick.

Jake Ciely then put the nail in the running back coffin by going with Montee Ball at sixth overall and I had to really think about not going running back in the first round.

My first thought was to go Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson and then hope to grab Brandon Marshall on the way back and build my team through the Wide Receiver position.  Not a bad option, but I like that approach a lot more in PPR or 1/2 Point PPR Leagues and not as much in standard scoring leagues.  The other major decision I had, was to go Jimmy Graham in the first and then grab Rob Gronkowski in the second to wipe out the tight end position and get a monster standard  flex option for this type of league.

If I had decided to go tight end-tight end to start the draft, I’m sure I would have gotten some face time on the network and probably been the talk of the early part of the draft, but I wanted to approach this draft as if money was on the line.  I looked at what running backs would be available to me on the way back in the second round and I didn’t like it.  I would have been forced to gamble on an Arian Foster type of back and that’s someone I’m trying to avoid.  If I reached a little at running back in the first round I had a very good chance to get one of the top six wide receivers on the way back.

So I gambled on DeMarco Murray and that Dallas Cowboys’ Offensive Line with my first round pick and grabbed Brandon Marshall with my second round pick.  The start was nothing to brag about on Twitter, but it was pretty solid and I could try to make up for the slight reach in the first by grabbing talent through out the draft.

The third round was tough because there wasn’t any clear cut value at either the wide receiver position or the running back position.  Randall Cobb was tough to pass up, but I decided to gamble on C.J. Spiller in the hopes that he can overcome his rough 2013 and put up solid yardage numbers across the board.  His TDs will always be a little disappointing with Fred Jackson getting the bulk of the carries from inside the 20 yard line, but he can score from anywhere on the field when he’s healthy.  My hopes of Joique Bell getting back to me were immediately killed when Pat Thorman took him right after I took Spiller in the 3rd.

With Bell gone I decided I was going to go with the best wide receiver available and grabbed Vincent Jackson with my fourth round pick.  I really like Jackson in standard scoring leagues and I can live with his up and down output in the fourth round.  When it came back to me in the fifth round I had Jordan Cameron sitting on a platter for me to grab, but I instead went with Ben Tate as the last upside starting running back left on the board.  Pat immediately scooped up Cameron with then next pick and that pick immediately gave me a case of picker’s remorse.  With the news of Josh Gordon‘s season long suspension coming down today, the Cameron pick looks even better for Mr. Thorman.

The sixth round offered up a bunch of PPR stud wide receivers, but I decided to go with the big play potential in Mike Wallace.  I’m hoping Ryan Tannehill can improve in the new Dolphins’ Offense and get his big-play weapon involved.  If Wallace can once again become a downfield threat he will be worth the sixth round price tag in standard scoring.

When it came back to me in the seventh round I was struggling between taking Terrance Williams and Kyle Rudolph.  I have Rudolph rated as my fifth overall tight end in standard scoring and Williams was bunched up with a lot of other upside wide receiver twos.  I decided to make my play with Rudolph in the seventh instead of gambling on him getting back to me in the eighth.  In retrospect I may have been able to dodge Jake and Paul taking Rudolph and come out of the 7th and 8th with both of my targets, but ending up with DeAndre Hopkins instead of Terrance Williams is not that big of a drop.

The ninth round was where I decided that Cam Newton was actually a value in this scoring system.  Newton hasn’t finished outside of the top five in four point passing touchdown leagues since he stepped foot on an NFL field.  The run on QBs was going to come and I wanted to grab the guy I want before it starts, especially when there was no one else that stood out to me as a value on the board.

The 10th round is where I finally made a pick that got me some face time on the Fntasy Sports Network.  Of course it was because Pat Mayo wanted to figure out who in their right mind would take Mark Ingram in the 10th round of a Fantasy Football Draft.  To make a long story short he was the 45th running back taken and I have him just outside my top 30 for STANDARD Scoring running backs.  Chris Wesseling put a lot of the reasons why people should give Mark Ingram one more chance into his article here at NFL.com.

The next two picks were just roster fills as I took Greg Jennings and Tyler Eifert in the 11th and the 12th round.  Jennings isn’t anything special and I’m not going to delude myself into thinking he was some major bargain as the 52nd wide receiver off the board, but Eifert could be interesting in a standard flex league, especially with touchdown vulture Marvin Jones on the shelf for the first four weeks of the season.  The fact that Eifert is still not ready to play in week four of the preseason has me a little concerned.

The 13th round is where the darts usually start getting thrown in all directions, but Colin Kaepernick was just too good to pass up as my QB2 in a four point passing TD League.  Kaepernick’s ceiling is in the top six of QBs and his floor is just outside the top twelve so getting him to back up Cam Newton was a nice surprise.  With Cam Newton suffering a cracked rib in the preseason this pick may end up being a pretty big one.  If someone suffers a major injury at QB I have some ammo to make a trade.

James Jones at wide receiver 66 could be a steal.  He had ten targets in the last preseason game and the only reason he’s been sliding down the rankings is because he was behind Andre Holmes and Rod Streater in the first two preseason games.  My thoughts were that the Raiders knew what they had when they signed Jones away from Green Bay and wanted to see which receivers were going to be in their plans going forward.

The Rams Defense was my next pick and it allows me to start streaming defenses early in the season with their week four bye.  My last pick was spent on Bryce Brown and it was done as insurance for Spiller and because I think he can really excel if he’s give a chance this year.  If Fred Jackson gets injured Brown could explode this season.


 

 

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Zero Running Back

The Fantasy Football Black Book

 

There are many strategies that can work when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football leagues in 2014, but one fantasy football draft strategy seems to be really taking hold when people are drafting from the back end of a PPR (point per reception league) draft.  The zero running back strategy is taking over expert and amateur fantasy football drafts alike.  The importance of the wide receiver position and the ability to avoid potential draft busts with early round picks has taken hold.  The question marks at the running back position start right after the top five running backs, while the top six wide receivers are virtually guaranteed to approach their projected statistics.

The FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association) Fantasy Football Leagues recently kicked off their drafts and mine is filled some of my friends from the industry.  One of of my friends in the league is Mark Kaplan, @DaTrueGuru, and he is picking from the 10 spot in out twelve team PPR FSWA draft.  I noticed his team was avoiding the running back position early in the draft and asked if he would mind sharing his draft strategy and thoughts and he, by some miracle, obliged.  I was particularly interested in his thoughts because I have been drafting very similarly from that same spot in leagues and because Mark has done extremely well in the FSWA leagues lately.  He even has a 2013 FSWA Fantasy Basketball Championship already under his belt and is currently among the leaders in the Fantasy Baseball Leagues as well.

Here’s Mark’s FSWA Draft Early Draft Strategy from the 10 spot:

The FSWA Insiders draft is a PPR league where we have to start three wide receivers and a flex. That means wide receivers rule the draft, but most people want to take running backs early and often, despite their injury risk and the fact that wideouts easily out produce running backs in PPR leagues. I had the 10th overall pick and knew right away I was going WR/WR because every running back after the first four main guys are all over valued and come with question marks.

Luckily Demaryius Thomas was there for me at 10 and I instantly took the highest scoring WR in PPR leagues last season. Then my boy, Brandon Marshall, was there for my next pick and again, instantly took him. B-Marsh is so reliable and is basically a guarantee to get 100 receptions (has done that in two straight seasons). Just like that, I have two players that should each get me 300 points.
demaryius-thomas
Now the tough decisions start. With my third pick, I was staring at some very questionable running backs like Reggie Bush (J. Bell was already gone and just not a fan of Bush), Rashad Jennings (has never been the #1 guy before), Frank Gore (means I would have to reach on Carlos Hyde in a few rounds,so would basically be spending 2 picks on one RB), Ben Tate(injury concerns). That is a road I wanted to avoid. Julius Thomas was there as well, but not only is he overrated (had only 65 catches last season), there are also a lot of other TE’s I like rounds 8-10 that I’d rather draft at their value, than draft Thomas in the third round. Therefore, I was going to target a wide receiver, but which one? I was choosing between Andre Johnson (who was ranked 96th for some unknown reason), Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, and Pierre Garcon. I ended up going with Andre Johnson because he’s an elite wide receiver (finished 10th overall among WRs last season and has played in 16 games in each of the past two season). When it gets back to me, J. Thomas, Cruz, Jennings, and Bush are gone and I’m faced with the decision again: reach on a questionable running back, like T. Gerhart or B.Tate, or take another elite WR. Decided to go WR for the fourth time, this time was deciding between Keenan Allen and Garcon. It was basically coin flip and decided I like the upside of Allen so went with him.
Keenan Allen
Now my starting roster is set with four wideouts that should all produce 270 plus fantasy points this season (there were only five running backs last season that reached 270 fantasy points and one of those guys was Knowshon Moreno). Instead of taking running backs that might produce in the third or fourth round, I loaded up on great wideouts. What about running backs? Well there are going to be plenty of guys in the fifth and sixth round that have just as much upside and question marks as the guys in the third or fourth rounds like Fred Jackson, Pierre Thomas, Baltimore RBs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, Chris Johnson, to name a few. Now, I will be taking running backs the rest of the draft (besides getting a QB and a TE). But here’s the thing, all I need is one of my late round running backs to emerge as a #1, out of all of the ones I will end up taking, to be almost unstoppable. If I can get 10-13 points from each of my running backs (which isn’t hard to get in a PPR league) I end up taking, then my team will be extremely successful.
I want players that are consistent and will put up points, despite what position they play. Instead of reaching on a running back that might get me 200-220 points, I’d gladly take the wide receiver that is going to score 270 points. The objective is to score the most points each week, not build a pretty looking roster, and by going with four wide receivers to start the draft, I’m on my way to scoring a plethora of points of every week.
**I want to thank Mark for taking the time to do a guest post for me and implore anyone who enjoys fantasy sports to give him a follow on twitter, @DaTrueGuru**

Editor’s Note- Check out this interview for the Fantasy Sports Network featuring Michael Salfino talking about Zero Running Back

For more great Fantasy Football content check out the latest episodes of The Fantasy Coach Podcast and check out The Fantasy Football Black Book 2014 Edition.

Episode 019: Fantasy Football Nick Mensio

Episode 019: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Strategy

Featuring: Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) Rotoworld.com

Nick Mensio
About My Guest: Nick Mensio is a football writer for Rotoworld.com. The 2014 NFL season marks his third with Rotoworld.

Episode Summary:  Nick and I discuss the wide receiver position in fantasy football.  We discuss if Calvin Johnson will be dethroned as the number one fantasy wide receiver and even talk a little about Miles Austin’s Hamstrings.  (Just a little)

Episode Rundown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know Nick a little.
  • The Big Six wide receivers?
  • Discuss options at the position in rounds 1-9.
  • Discuss the rookie class.
  • Discuss Late round targets.
  • The Coach’s Office, Brought to you by RevoLabels.com
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 019:  I want to thank Nick for coming on the podcast and discussing the wide receiver position.  After tonight’s episode I may have to go out and buy more stock in Dez Bryant.   I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

RevoLabels.com

Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank.  While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season.  Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value.  The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position.  This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season.  It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season.  Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks.  Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together.  While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey.  Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type.  In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers.  There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

[soliloquy id="968"]

The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU.  While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC.  Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues.  The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year.  Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two.  I think the continued presence  of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year.  I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool.  He can score when ever he touches the ball.  He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions.  The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season.  The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out.  If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense.  Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher.  His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build.  Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary.  He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.)  and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey.  This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson.  I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case.  If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season.  He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season.  I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4.  If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

 

 

 

Jimmy Graham in the 2nd or Bust!

First of all I am not saying that you definitely have to take Jimmy Graham in the 2nd round of Fantasy Football drafts, but if he is available at pick 20 overall then it’s a slam dunk pick.  I’m talking Dr. J  posterizing Michael Cooper type of pick. (What, you don’t know who Dr. J is? Fine, Blake Griffin over Kendrick Perkins.)  Getting a tight end that’s head and shoulders above all the others is awesome, but getting one that could put up wide receiver 1 type numbers is a huge bonus.  What type of numbers are we talking?  Well some fantasy pundits think Jimmy Graham can get to 100+ catches with 1500 yards and 15 TDS.  Those numbers are ridiculous by normal tight end standards, but only sound outlandish.  In 2011 Graham had 111 catches, 1468 yards and 14 TDs and he had room to grow.

Jimmy Graham

Crazy Numbers

Jimmy Graham’s 2011 TE numbers Compared to Last year’s Highest scoring WRs

Jimmy Graham scored 341.8 fantasy points in 2011

Calvin Johnson scored 348.4 total fantasy points in 2012

Brandon Marshall scored 334.8 fantasy points in 2012

Andre Johnson scored 323.5 fantasy points in 2012

Yeah, so when you’re faced with taking Graham or Demaryius Thomas or Julio Jones just look at those numbers.  When healthy Jimmy Graham will outscore every wide receiver in the league not named Megatron and plays a position where there is precipitous drop off after he is drafted.  I’m not condoning taking him in the first round like some other guys are, but I definitely see their point.  I just don’t like the way my team looks after taking Jimmy graham in the first round.  My running backs end up being either a year away from social security or rookies that are a complete mystery.

I’m much more comfortable taking a running back or Calvin Johnson in the first round of a draft.  I tend to like how my team looks on paper after the draft and it helps me sleep at night.  When I go running back in the first round I feel like there is an opportunity  to take Jimmy Graham in the second round because I already have that security blanket.  Just call me Linus hanging onto C. J. Spiller with all my might.  I will take Jimmy Graham before almost every receiver after Calvin Johnson.  The only one that gives me pause is Dez Bryant because of his Megatron-lite like qualities.

If I don’t get Graham in the second round you can count on me putting the tight end blinders on until the 10th round.  10th round, really?  Yep, I will only look at tight ends if there is a tremendous value.  I will contemplate Gronk at the bottom of the 4th round if my top 14 WRs have all been taken.  I will look at Jason Witten in the middle of the 5th if I’m not happy with what’s there at runningback or wide-receiver.  Almost every time they haven’t made it to where I would be willing to pick them.  So on the blinders go until the 10th.

The 9th round is usually the toughest to hold off because the ADP usually is pushing Greg Olsen or Jared Cook, but I can always find a wide receiver or a high upside back up running back to take.  I do like Olsen because he is legitimately the number 2 passing target in Carolina, but there are similar tight ends available much later.  Jared Cook is said to be the new slot favorite of Sam Bradford, but I have heard his virtues sung from many a Titans training camp only to have a giant hole on my roster.

Owen Daniels

the 10th round is where I start to survey the tight end landscape and usually to my surprise some very decent tight ends have fallen.  Guys like Jermichael Finley, Owen Daniels, and Martellus Bennett are usually available in the 10th round and you can look at other owners roster dept to plan your course of attack.  I usually take Bennett out of the equation as I have never been a fan of his sloppy route running, but I do like the huge chunks of yardage Owen Daniels rips off in the Texans play action passing game.  If Daniels isn’t on the board I have to back to Jermichael Finley once again.

Spilled Coffee

The guy has burned me more times than Dunkin Donuts coffee, but I will still go back for more. Finley’s impending free agency and his age (only 26) make for a great opportunity for him to cash in big time if he has a huge year.  He has the talent, but he is only the fourth option in the Packers’ vaunted passing offense.  It’s better now that Greg Jennings has moved on to Minnesota, but I would still be more comfortable with Daniels because of his position in the pecking order in Houston.

Let’s say I miss out on all those guys in the 10th round.  Should I panic?  Heck no!  I still have options.  Jordan Cameron of the Browns becomes my new tight end obsession.  I will him to come to me in the 11th or 12 rounds.  It’s just that simple.  I wish for it and he appears.  The power of positive thinking! (or some bullshit) Again if there is another sneaky GM just in front of me who happens to steal him from me I turn my sites to some guys that were once considered tight end 1 material.  I start to go after Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis and Dustin Keller like there’s no tomorrow. And usually there isn’t a tomorrow because I am doing this at the very end of drafts.(Note:Dustin Keller suffered a career threatening knee injury last night.)

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my affections for Tyler Eifert and Zach Sudfeld.  Two huge targets that are going to be a big part of their passing games.  I love to pair them with a seasoned veteran as a high upside TE2.

Looking up and having Brandon Pettigrew as my starting tight end might not feel very good, but it’s a lot more comforting than having Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray as my RB1!  Take it from me you will sleep better at night waiting on a tight end than drafting anyone, but Jimmy Graham in the early rounds.

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