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DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 28

DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 28

Busy night on the diamond with 14 teams in action past the 7:07 ET first pitch. In todays article, I will outline what must plays and stay aways you should be aware of as well as some cheap players that will produce for you in the bargain bin.

Must Plays

Sean Manaea – LHP ($7,600) – vs Houston Astros

Sean Manaea is the Athletics’ prized prospect that came over in the Ben Zobrist trade. Manaea has been carving batters up in Triple-A, averaging 10.5 K/9. A strikeout happy pitcher, Manaea will have the opportunity to square off against a strikeout happy lineup. As a wholehe Astros have struckout the most in the majors, a whopping 224 times. Manaea will be a chalky play, so use him accordingly in cash games.

Manny Machado – 3B ($4,200) – vs Chicago White Sox

Manny Machado has been raking at home. He sports a .455 AVG a .512 SLG%. He’s ran into a bit of a slump lately (all while on the road) so many people will be off of him. In DraftKings, we love the long ball and Machado is no stranger to launching one past the fence. Carlos Rodon is who he’ll be facing and Rodon has been prone to making atleast one major mistake a game. Machado should be the man to take advantage of that.

Stay Aways

Jimmy Rollins – SS ($4,100) – @ Baltimore Orioles

Let’s start by saying that Jimmy Rollins is 37 years old. He doesn’t swipe bags and he doesn’t hit homeruns. Banking on him to have a multi-hit game is both risky and not suggested. If you’re going to spend up at the SS position, there are much better names to spend your money on.

Jake Peavey – RHP ($7,500) – @ New York Mets

Jake Peavey is grossly overpriced, especially against the Mets. He’s had one good outing all year and he only racked up 19 DK points. While he doesn’t walk a ton of batters, he doesn’t strike them out either. So even if he gives you a quality start – his ceiling is about 20 DK points.

The Bargain Bin

Juan Nicasio – RHP ($5,800) – vs Cincinnati Reds

The best part about this matchup is the fact that the Reds haven’t figured out how to score on the road. Their 29 runs scored is the lowest number in the National League. Juan Nicasio’s hard hit ball percentage is at the lowest mark of his career (20.8%) and his high K/9 has carried over from last year (10.03 – 9.45). Nicasio is a must play against the power-less reds.

Brandon Drury – 3B/OF ($3,000) – vs Colorado Rockies

Brandon Drury is getting a ton of playing time in Arizona and rightfully so. He launched a 442 foot homerun last night and has a .950 OPS. His walk rate could use a bit of help but if he’s swinging the hot stick, he doesn’t need to walk for DFS purposes.

 

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB DFS or season long questions – feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays |Stay Aways |The Bargain Bin, April 8th

Just six days left in the NBA’s regular season and Friday marks the second busiest day remaining with ten games on the slate. Somebody from last weeks article goes right back into the stay away section while the must plays won’t break the bank.

Must Plays

Nikola Vucevic – C ($7,100) vs Miami Heat

Don’t be alarmed that Nikola Vucevic is coming off of the bench. Coach Scott Skiles realizes that Vucevic is one of his best offensive weapons and has been deploying him as such. The best part about taking Vucevic tonight against the Heat is his track record against them. Earlier this season he posted a monster stat line of 22 points, 10 boards, 6 assists and 3 steals. Miami gives up an average of over 20 points to opposing centres so the big man should have a big day against the Heat.

Julius Randle – PF ($6,000) @ New Orleans Pelicans

Julius Randle is coming off of a career high 20 rebounds against the Clippers. He’s had 10 or more rebounds in four straight including two double doubles along the way. I love his matchup against Alexis Ajinca who isn’t a particularly strong rebounder. I’ll be very shocked if Randle doesn’t finish the night with a big double double.

Stay Aways

Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF ($9,700) @ Boston Celtics

The most expensive player on the slate tonight is also the biggest trap of the night. The Boston Celtics are a top 15 defensive team and they guard the small forward position particularly well. Antetokounmpo has run into this three times already this year, being limited to an average of 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists. At $9,700, there’s no way he hits value tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge – PF ($7,800) @ Denver Nuggets

Denver might not be a very good team this year but that hasn’t stopped LaMarcus Aldridge from struggling against them. In three games this year, he’s averaged just 10 points to go with eight rebounds. He’s shown some crazy inconsistency this year and only has four trips to the free throw line against the Nuggets as well.

The Bargain Bin

Norman Powell – SG ($3,800) vs Indiana Pacers

As long as Norman Powell keeps getting starts, you should keep pumping him into your lineup. In his last game against the Hawks he averaged 31 minutes, the third most on the team. Minutes equals production and Powell keeps on producing

Tyler Ennis – PG ($3,600) @ Boston Celtics

Tyler Ennis is playing for next year. With all the injuries to the Bucks, Ennis has seen his playing time over the last two games average at 29 minutes. In what should be a fast paced game versus the Celtics, Ennis has potential to get 25 or more DraftKings points.

 

Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKings

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKingsPile of Pancakes

Just a few short years ago the only stacks I was worried about on a Sunday morning was a huge pile of pancakes covered in butter and syrup.  I’m not kidding.  Now all week long I try and focus on what stacks may be the most profitable on Sundays in the biggest and best GPP tournaments Daily Fantasy Sports has to offer.  If you look back at some of the winners in last season’s millionaire makers and even the teams that had big time sweats there were variations of stacking that helped them lap the field.  Whether it was everyone’s favorite Boston sweat with a home town Patriots fan taking the entire offense to win himself a million bucks or it was the off the radar Joe “100 Million Dollar Man” Flacco and his Ravens receivers winning a million dollars.  Every week I’ll talk about my favorite stacks and even some offenses I wish I could stack, but ultimately can’t.

Dallas Cowboys Stack –

Tony Romo 7300 –  Romo is pretty mid-priced when it comes to week one QBs and it;’s almost too good to be true with the way he has played against the Giants the last few years.  The Giants are in even worse shape now then they were the last few years as they have a very suspect safety tandem to go along with a JPP-less pass rush.  The only thing holding me back from using Tony Romo more (besides my Giants fandom) is the fact that the Giants might be equally as bad against the run as they may start Markus Kuhn at DT and an undrafted FA rookie at MLB with Jon Beason out.

Dez Bryant 8700 – Dez Bryant gets up for games against the NFC East.  He demands the ball and he makes big plays.  He also is 500 cheaper than Odell Beckham Jr. on the Giants.  Dez is one of the players I am getting in my lineups even when I’m not stacking Cowboys.

Jason Witten 4000 – Witten kills the Giants.  The Giants usually play some form of cover 2 to help over the top with Dez Bryant and it leaves their linebackers exposed to the wiley veteran.  With Rob Gronkowski not available because he played on Thursday Witten gets a bump for me as far as playability and if you’re stacking Cowboys he can be a very good edition.

Terrance Williams 4000 vs. Cole Beasley 3400 – I have seen a lot of touting of Beasley as a solid option because of the Giants struggles at the slot corner position and with their safeties and linebackers not at their best.  I think he could have been a real key if the Giants were going to keep pace with the Cowboys or lead the Cowboys on Sunday, but I think the game may be more about the Cowboys controlling the Giants and the Giants struggling a bit with no Victor Cruz and a beat up offensive line.  Because of that i would rather go with Williams as an option make some big downfield plays off of play-action with inexperienced or over-aggressive safeties back there.

Arizona Cardinals Stack –

Carson Palmer 6500 – Palmer is coming back from major knee surgery, but has looked great this preseason.  He was borderline dominant early last year and has a ton of passing weapons at his disposal in Arizona.  This week he gets a very bad New Orleans Saints defense in a game where there may be some big time scoring as Drew Brees and company try to keep pace.

John Brown 4500 – Brown burst on the scene last season before struggling with out Carson Palmer in the lineup.  Brown has elite speed and actually worked with Carson Palmer all summer to get their timing down.  That bodes well as both a fantasy sleeper and as low priced/high upside play week one against a bad Saints secondary.

Larry Fitzgerald 5500 – Honestly I love his pricing this week and I love that he’ll be under owned because most think he’s almost done.  Last season Fitz excelled when Palmer was at the helm and he is a nice complement play as some people may stack Palmer and Brown and then go elsewhere to fill the rest of their squad.

Michael Floyd 5800 – Floyd is a bit over priced with the questions surrounding his injury.  If Floyd was completely healthy I would like him because of his big play ability, but in week one his injury status makes Fitz and Brown more appealing targets.

Philadelphia Eagles Stack

Sam Bradford 6900 – Bradford’s pricing is just about right if you consider the risk versus the reward with his injury history and newness to the offense.  The over under on the game is so high (54) that even if the Falcons defense did look improved, they don’t, you would target this game.  I’m tempted to instead cherry pick this game instead of stack because of the fact that it will be used a bunch.

Jordan Matthews 7200 – Matthews is going to be the go-to-guy this year fir the Eagles in the passing game.  With Matthews occupying the slot it means he will stay away from the Falcons best cover corner, Desmond Trufant.  I love Matthews this week and may be playing him even more over on FanDuel.

Nelson Agholor 5700 – I expect the rookie to be involved early and often, but his match up against Trufant actually means I may be more apt to avoid putting him in my stacks.

Brent Celek 2500 – With Zach Ertz a game time decision Brent Celek could become a nice option as a stackable punt play.  With the high over/under and increase in snaps and possible usage Celek becomes very intriguing. Plus he’ll be owned at less than 1%, which is nice.

Sneaky Stack***

Detroit Lions Stack –

Matthew Stafford 7000 – Stafford is everyone’s favorite whipping boy because of his inconsistency and his maddening mechanics, but he has put up huge games in the past.  If the Lions were opening at home I would expect the Lions stack to get a lot of looks, but because they are on the road they are going to be under used.  The pluses for Stafford are the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson, continued presence of Golden Tate and the additions of last year’s first round pick Eric Ebron and this year’s draft pick in Ameer Abdullah.

Ameer Abdullah 4000 – A running back in your stack?  Yep, Abdullah is going to be featured in the passing game and will get quite a few touches against a less than impressive defense.  Could make the Chargers look silly if he badly outplays Melvin Gordon.

Calvin Johnson 8500 – Let’s make this short…..he’s fricking Megatron!  No bigger ceiling on a WR than what Johnson has the potential to do on the field.

Golden Tate 6300 – Tate is 800 cheaper than Keenan Allen who’s on the other side of the ball this week.  The price is really inviting for a secondary option with big play ability.

Eric Ebron 2900 – Ebron will forever be one of the guys drafted ahead of Odell Beckham Jr., but he can do something to soften that image with a big sophomore season.   The reports have been pretty good on Ebron this off season and the release of Joseph Fauria has to be a pretty good sign that he’s going to get some snaps this year.  The reson I really like him is his ability to stretch the field in the seam and that could mean he makes a few big plays at a nice low price to make his DFS owners happy.

Who I’m Not Stacking and Why:

Miami Dolphins – I like Ryan Tannehill this week, but I have no clue who is going to get snaps and usage besides Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry int he Dolphins offense.  I want some clarity instead of throwing darts this week with as many good options as there are.

Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rodgers is never a bad option, but with Jordy Nelson out for the year and Randall Cobb nursing an AC Joint Sprain it makes playing a stack with the Packers difficult.  Especially with a bunch of the field owning the cheap Davante Adams.

Indianapolis Colts – I can actually see the headline now.  Ultimate Contrarian Play wins 2 MIL.  I’m not buying it, but I’m sure there will be lineups stacking Colts against the Bills knowing that people are shying away from the very tough Bills defense.

Week 11 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 044: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 11 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 11 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Renee was recently on the DLF podcast with Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick) and Jarrett Behar (@EyeofTheGator)

Thank Yous For Episode 044:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week eleven of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Week 9 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 044: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 9 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 9 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Thank Yous For Episode 044:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week eight of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

The Golden Days Of DFS

DraftDay Sold

Recently one of my favorite daily fantasy sports sites, DraftDay.com was bought by MGT.  I have to say I am sad because my initial introduction to DFS was through playing RapidFire on DraftDay with David Gonos, Dan Strafford and Eric Mack.  I had no idea that this industry existed, let alone how fun and addicting it could be.

The great thing about Draft Day was the simple user interface and the really fun Rapid Fire games.  All you had to do was pick 3 out of 5 right and you double your bet.  The 5 for 5 Rapid Fire Max was the sucker bet of all sucker bets, but every once in a while I would still partake when I felt a lock lineup was picked.  It’s exactly like that side bet at the black jack table in Las Vegas.  Lucky Ladies where if you get two queens of hearts you get a 100-1.  How many times have I seen absolute drunkards losing all their money staying on 15 against a ten and then put their last 50 bucks on that sucker bet and…..WIN!

The truth is the DFS space is getting smaller.  New companies are coming along, but they can’t offer the high stakes games that the big boys like Fanduel, DraftKings and even DraftStreet can offer.  Even if they offer a lower rake or an easier interface and softer games the big money is always going to chase the overlay in the big guaranteed prize pool tournaments.

RotoGrinders Daily Fantasy Fix Podcast recently had Andrew Wiggins co-founder of DraftDay on after he sold his stake in Draft Day and the interview conducted by Dan Back is one of the best inside looks at the shift in the DFS market place that I have heard.  You have to understand that Andrew Wiggins was not only the owner of Draft Day, but is also a very good DFS player himself.  His expertise in Basketball is known to anyone who faces him in a 50/50 or tournament.

Quote from Andrew Wiggins about the sale of Draft Day:

“We have worked tirelessly to build an outstanding product and loyal player base. With MGT’s support, DraftDay will have greater resources to grow this business to new heights. Our employees look forward to making MGT the market leader in daily fantasy sports.”

Seriously, go take a listen then come back and read the rest.

Draft Day just couldn’t keep up with the huge contests that were being offered up at their competitor’s sites.  Andrew said they made a huge error in working on the site itself instead of raising money so they could attract more players.  I think anyone can understand the mistake that DraftDay made.  They simply looked at the wrong problem to fix.

I find myself wasting time doing the same here on my site.  Instead of providing my loyal readers fresh content, I fiddle with the look of the site or work on SEO issues.  People don’t come to my site for the ease of navigation or for the fancy pictures, they come to see if they should drop Mike Moustakas in season long fantasy baseball now or pay for Jose Fernandez in DFS.  I KNOW my problem and how to fix it and yet I still find myself wondering if I am going about this right.

I think that’s what got Draft Day in trouble.  They knew how to build a great user interface and how to create fun games with interesting salary structures.  They didn’t know how to raise money.  I have to commend Andrew for being so honest when he talked about all the financial backing DraftKings got this last year.  He wasn’t jealous in the least.  He was amazed.  How did they accomplish that?  I am the same way when someone in the same industry as me displays a talent that is just so foreign to me yet is exactly what you need to succeed.

Another thing mentioned by Andrew is that DFS players have no idea how good we have it right now.  It’s true, we really don’t.  We nit-pick at sites on slow nights and complain when there’s a lull in big contests.  Imagine how much we’re going to complain when all the overlay is gone, and the rake gets bigger.  We could see a future of only two massive sites where you literally can only play other sharks because all the casual players have been chased away.

We really are Jolly Green Giants walking the DFS earth.

Remember these are the golden days my friends and we will look back fondly on them.

 

 

Fantasy Basketball-Injuries

As we’re headed toward the playoffs in Fantasy Basketball it’s time to really pay attention to what’s going on around the league.  Injuries to some Fantasy Basketball players can go unnoticed with so much attention being split.

With March Madness taking hold and Fantasy Baseball drafts starting to consume some of your concentration it’s easy to miss some of the happenings around the NBA that can help you win a Fantasy Basketball Championship.

Point Guard-

Kyrie Irving suffered an injury to his biceps and Dion Waiters has stepped into the roll of main ball handler for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  With Irving sidelined for a few weeks Waiters can bring scoring to your fantasy team as well as some assists and steals, but you also have to weather his erratic shooting (42%) (66% from the line) in order to have him help your team.

Waiters last two game lines (Courtesy ESPN.com)

Dion Waiters Stats

While Waiters may be a good source of points you may be in need of some assists.  Well Ramon Sessions of the Milwaukee Bucks could be your answer.  2nd round pick Nate Wolters went down with a fractured hand and Sessions looks to be in line for an increase in minutes in the Bucks’ back court.  While minutes are never guaranteed when talking about the Bucks, i would gamble on Sessions if that category could put me over the top.  Just don’t expect Darren Collison level fill-in numbers.

Shooting Guard-

It took a James Anderson injury to finally see Tony Wroten back in the starting lineup, but Wroten put up very nice numbers in his last start and may be in line for some bigger minutes down the stretch as the 76ers need to evaluate their young talent to see who they want to build around for next season.

Tony Wroten’s Stats For The Last Two Contests (Courtesy ESPN.com)

Tony Wroten Stats

Power Forward-

Drew Gooden has come out of no where to put in quality minutes for the Washington Wizards and if there is an injury to Marcin Gortat  then Gooden becomes a very valuable asset.   The injury to Nene initially cleared the way, but Gooden has thoroughly outplayed Trevor Booker since and can be counted on for double digit points and some rebounds with the a couple of 3-pointers to  boot.

Drew Gooden Clebebrates

Center-

Gorgui Dieng has become somewhat of a phenomenon since getting a chance to start at Center for the Minnesota Timber Wolves while Nikola Pekovic recovers from an ankle injury.  The novelty of plugging him in as low budget option at Center quickly wore off when he went for a double double in his first game starting to along with five blocks.  Instead of a throw away joke on an afternoon DFS podcast he quickly became a name to know and run to the waiver wire as he has had a double double in each of his three starts including his last game where he went for 22 points and 21 rebounds.  With Pek hurting I think you have to run out and grab Dieng in the short term and hope he gets some run the rest of the season.

Gorgui Dieng’s Last Three Games (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Gorgui Dieng Stats

Draft Kings Lineup

Swag Dome Lineup

Wed Lineup

 

PG- A lot of choices tonight, but Kyrie has been coming on and has been playing the SG position where he can get into better spots to score.  Not in love with the price, but no PG on the Lakers can stay with him.

SF- Rudy Gay going against the team that gave up on him in less than a season.  I like the payback factor here and Gay has been a beast since coming back from an Achilles strain.

PF-Sullinger is a guy that can be maddening in DFS, but he had a huge game against the 76ers last time out so I am going to hope he keeps it up.

C-The  minutes restriction seems to be over Varejao and he is facing a depleted Laker front line.

F-Kyle Singler gets the start for the Pistons and should be able to hit above value pretty easily.

This lineup obviously fades all the big names on Draft Kings tonight which isn’t usually the best strategy, but this is the lineup that had the most upside for me.   Good luck everyone.

DraftKings NBA DFS

With football season all but over and MLB still a few months away this new daily fantasy sports addict needed an outlet.  Luckily for me DraftKings was the perfect place to get my feet wet in NBA DFS.  While the winnings have been relatively small compared to my end of season in MLB DFS and NFL DFS, it has been a very fun ride.  

Here are some of my favorite plays and reasons for playing them tonight

Just The Guards Tonight

stephen curry

PG 

Stephen Curry 9,000

Curry is 1,000 budget dollars cheaper than he has been in recent games and that is a huge bonus for daily players.  He has one of the highest (if not highest) ceilings of any PG in DFS and DraftKings is basically bating you to use him.  Great small tournament play especially.

Kyle Lowry 7,400

Lowry has kicked it into another gear ever since General Grievous (Greivis Vasquez) was traded to the Raptors.  Lowry is a solid play against Minny as Rubio takes a few too many chances on D and loves to go under the pick in pick and roll situations.

Darren Collison 5,500

Collison has been very steady since taking over for the injured Chris Paul, but his ceiling is no where near as high as Curry’s.  It all depends on where you want to spend tonight.

SG

Again Stephen Curry and his discounted 9,000 figure.

DeMar DeRozen 7,600

DeRozen should hit value tonight against the Timberwolves, but he is not going to blow away his value numbers like some other SG’s might.

Jodie Meeks 5,800

Meeks has been in a lot of my lineups lately and he has been pretty steady.  With Nick Young suspended Meeks will benefit from a few more scoring opportunities .  His price is starting to get into the range where I may look elsewhere.

Avery Bradley 5,100

With Rondo back people may finally stop riding Bradley, but tonight is not the night to fade him.  Rondo will probably play between 20-25 minutes and Bradley will be a huge part of this offense with Rondo in or out of the game.

I also love JJ Redick for 5,000 against a tired and humiliated Knicks team.  Iman Shumpert is a good perimeter defender, but he may be licking his wounds after what the Pacers did to him and his teammates last night.

Feel free to tweet me @coachesser with any questions about which forwards or centers I have in play tonight.

 

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