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DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays, Stay Aways & The Bargain Bin, February 26

Eight games in the association tonight leaves you a ton of options when picking your DraftKings NBA lineup. Continue reading and find out what players you should build your lineup around and what players you should avoid.

 

Must Plays:

Kyle Lowry – PG – ($8,400) vs Cleveland Cavaliers

There’s no doubt that Kyle Lowry is the heart and soul of the Raptors on and off the court. He always seems to bring his A-game against more difficult opponents. He’s shown twice this year vs the Cavaliers that he always steps up (18-30 FGA/FGM, .455 3P%, averaging 25 points, 8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 3 steals). At $8,400, Lowry is someone you can reasonably build your lineup around.

Kristaps Porzingis – PF – ($6,500) vs Orlando Magic

This is locked in as not only the best power forward play of the night but also the contrarian play of the night. People will see Porzingis’ name next to dunk-master Aaron Gordon and flock towards him. You should stick with Porzingis. Orlando has a ton of players that love to drive to the net and that means Porzingis might have a block party. In two games played against the Magic earlier this year – Porzingis is averaging five blocks per game. Slide the big Latvian in your GPP lineups and even in some cash ones too.

Tristan Thompson – PF – ($5,400) @ Toronto Raptors

Here’s the thing. The Raptors (Specifically Jonas Valanciunas and Luis Scola) can’t play defence against big men. That bodes well for rebounding machine Tristan Thompson. While Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan throw up shots all game, Thompson will be under the net ready to gobble up all the rebounds.

Stay Aways:

Victor Oladipo – SG – ($7,000) @ New York Knicks

Victor Oladipo is dealing with a bruised thigh but is still good to play. That is terrible for fantasy value. You might peek at his game log and think I’m crazy because he’s put up 40+ DK Points in two of his last four games but look again and look at his minutes. There’s no way Oladipo plays close to 40 minutes on a bruised thigh which severely impacts his value in DFS

Bradley Beal – SG – ($6,400) @ Philadelphia 76ers

This is the classic “trap” pick. Bradley Beal looks like a great option at $6,400 against a bad 76ers squad but dig a little deeper and you’ll see that he’s just over priced. Beal has not looked like himself at all over the last three games, going a combined 18/49 from the field for a FG% of .367. He’s too cold and will be too highly owned based on his matchup. Stay away until Beal figures it out.

The Bargain Bin:

Doug McDermott – SF – ($4,000) @ Atlanta Hawks

With Derrick Rose listed as questionable going into Fridays game, Doug McDermott immediately slides up the offensive priority list. He might not be the starter but I can guarantee you he’s not only better than the 35 year-old Mike Dunleavy but will also shoot the ball a heck of a lot more.

Patrick Patterson – PF – ($3,900) vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Luis Scola will not play a majority of the game because the man cannot play defence. Insert Patrick Patterson. He’s already been averaging more minutes and more points than Scola over the month of February and that won’t change against the high octane offence that Cleveland has.

 

Thanks for reading! If you have any questions regarding NBA DFS or NBA season long leagues, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

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Fantasy Basketball: 2014 NBA Draft Reaction

 

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

 

Best Fits:

Andrew Wiggins Kansas/Cleveland Cavaliers 1st Overall:  The Cavs have failed miserably in recent drafts to find a running mate for Kyrie Irving.  Dion Waiters has proven time and time again that it just doesn’t work when he shares the backcourt with Kyrie.  Anthony Bennett was an abject failure in his first year in the league after being picked 1st overall in 2013.  The Cavs got a bit unlucky in 2012 picking 4th in that draft.  They just missed the perfect player to pair with Kyrie in Bradley Beal who went 3rd overall to the Wizards.  We all know what the partnership of Beal and Wall looked like last year in D.C.  Then last year they hit the lottery in a bad draft.  Bennett seemed to be the best fit as a scoring power forward prospect with some range and then his rookie year happened.  Well all that is in the past as the Cavs hit the lottery in the right year this time.  There were as many as four players that could have been argued as the best overall prospect in the 2014 draft, but almost none had the upside that Andrew Wiggins has.  Wiggins will come into the league with freak athleticism and a better than average jump shot to go along with his next level defensive skills.  He should fill up the stat sheet from day one even though he won’t be a ball dominant player in the Cavs’ offense.  In a few years he could be the entire focus of the Cavs offense if everything develops the right way.  With Kyrie resigned this could be the beginning of a rebirth in Cleveland.

Jabari Parker Duke/Milwaukee Bucks 2nd Overall:  The Bucks were desperate for a face of the franchise and they couldn’t have done any better than getting Parker in the 2 slot.  I feel for last year’s head coach Larry Drew who was a good soldier and helped the team tank all the way up to the second pick in the loaded 2014 draft.  Drew was fired after the Bucks had already traded for Jason Kidd from the Brooklyn Nets.  Now Kidd gets to look smart as he unleashes the NBA ready Parker on the Bucks’ opponents.  Parker may be slowed down in his year one production by the shoot first point guard play of Brandon knight, but I expect that to work itself out over time.  Parker is the closest thing to Carmelo Anthony to come into the league since Anthony left Syracuse early.  He will be a beast for years to come so don’t hesitate to draft him even in year one.

Julius Randle Kentucky/Los Angeles Lakers 7th Overall: The Lakers had to be jumping for joy when Randle fell to them at 7 in the 2014 NBA draft.  Randle could have easily gone in the top three if any of those teams had needed a power forward that is going to bang and fight his way to a double double almost every night.  He’s a man’s man.  He will fight for every rebound and actually knows how to box out because he can’t rely on superior leaping ability or wing span.  He’s been compared to Zach Randolph in the draft process and that seems pretty spot on especially if he can develop a mid-range jumper to go with his finishing in the paint.  He should score and rebound right away with the Lakers’ front court minutes up for grabs, but he may lack some defensive statistical production until he learns how to defend in the NBA.

Elfrid Payton Louisiana Lafayette/Orlando Magic (via trade w/ Phil.) 10th Overall: The Magic looked like a team without a plan last year when they selected Victor Oladipo 4th overall and then didn’t know whether to play him at the point or at the two-guard.  It looks like they finally made a decision in the off season that Oladipo is better off at the 2.  Payton being traded for on draft day cements that thought as he’s a point guard all the way.  He’s young, fast, long and is already a very good defender. Just like most point guards that come into the league he has a bit of a broken jump shot.  That being said he and Oladipo probably form the best young defensive backcourt in the game.  There should be steals and fast breaks galore with these two and the fourth overall pick in 2014 Aaron Gordon in the fold.  I like the fit for Payton with the Magic especially with them waiving Jameer Nelson recently.

Doug McDermott Creighton/Chicago Bulls (via trade w/Denver.) 11th Overall: The Bulls lacked shooters last year and it really hurt when they got to the playoffs.  Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell were hot and cold much of the year.  When they were cold the Bulls were a tough team to watch as teams would just double Noah and Boozer without worrying about wide open threes.  As long as the Bulls don’t get Carmelo Anthony in free agency McDermott has clear path to minutes and shots.  He should immediately help fantasy owners in three pointer made, shooting percentages and scoring.  Bill Simmons mentioned it on draft night and it was so true that this trade was rumored for months before the draft and then it actually happened on draft night.

Shabazz Napier UCONN/Miami Heat (via trade w/Charlotte) 24th Overall:  Napier was so fun to watch in UConn’s run to a championship that it’s funny to think that he fell all the way down to 24th overall.  The complete opposite can be said of the point guard play in Miami in their finals loss to the San Antonio Spurs.  The Heat were rumored to be all over Napier and they got their man in a trade with the Hornets.  Napier should play big minutes right away and help the Heat by making smart passes as well as being able to drive into the paint to help free up LeBron and Wade.  Of course his value and fit have a lot to do with what happens with the big three in free agency, but for now it looks to be the second best fit for a rookie point guard.

Kyle Anderson UCLA/San Antonio Spurs 30th Overall: Anderson to the Spurs made so much sense that it made some people sick just to say it.  A high basketball IQ point forward who can dish the basketball as well as score it in different ways.  He’s like a point guard stuck in a 6’9″ slow body.  On any other team I would have probably said to look elsewhere, but with the Spurs he could find himself in  Boris Diaw’s sooner than later.  He’ll be a sneaky bet to help you in your assists category if he gets some rookie year minutes.  Just don’t ask Pop if he’s gonna play.  Pop doesn’t like questions.

K.J. McDaniels Clemson/Philadelphia 76ers 2nd pick of the 2nd Round: So what was it the 76ers lacked last year?  Oh yeah, DEFENSE!  McDaniels was looked at leading up to the draft as a mid 1st round pick that could immediately see minutes as an elite wing defender that can finish at the basket.  He slipped to the 2nd round and the 76ers and fantasy basketball players look to be the beneficiaries.  The 76ers lacked anyone that could lock down an opposing player last year and were forced into a ton of shoot outs.  McDaniels could see big minutes right away and should see an uptick in scoring production if the rest of the 76ers defense continues to struggle.

Cleanthony Early Wichita State/New York Knicks 4th pick of the 2nd Round: Cleanthony Early was looked at as a late first round pick that would contribute right away for a contender.  Instead he fell to the top of the second round where the Knicks got an excellent piece for their team.  The Knicks struggled at the small forward position last year when Carmelo Anthony would slide over to the four.  Sometimes Tim Hardaway Jr. would be asked to play the three and he struggled mightily when he was asked to.  Metta World Peace was supposed to give the Knicks the freedom to use Anthony as a stretch four, but that didn’t work out.  Early can score inside or outside and has a 6’11” wingspan on his 6’7″ body that allows him to rebound well and defend even bigger fours.  He could see minutes right away with the Knicks’ frontcourt a bit of a question mark and he would benefit greatly if Carmelo would happen to sign elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Dante Exum Australia/Utah Jazz 3rd Overall: I’m a big believer in Exum’s talent, but the fit wasn’t the best for me, at least for year one.  He goes to a team with a young point guard already in tow in Trey Burke and they also have two other players that look to be part of their plans in Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks that like to be in possession of the ball.  I think it will take some time for the Jazz to figure out how to use all of their pieces and in the meantime it will hurt Exum’s year one production.  Honestly, I would have loved to see him land somewhere else, but I still think he’s a top three pick in dynasty leagues.  Huge upside!

Make sure you check back next week when I’ll put some words together about some rookies that may be able to fight their way to meaningful minutes and which high upside rookies you should target in your dynasty drafts.

My Pre 2014 NBA Draft Thoughts can be found here.

You can catch all of my latest podcasts by grabbing the feed (http://www.coachesser.com/feed/podcast/) or by subscribing on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

 

 

 

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2014 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Outlook

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I have to admit I haven’t been this excited about an NBA draft since LeBron was taking his talents to the NBA.  The injury to Joel Embiid can’t even dampen my mood.  There are players all throughout this draft that are going to be big time dynasty fantasy basketball assets, and a few are going to help people win some fantasy titles this year.

My Top 20 Fantasy Prospects

Andrew Wiggins 6’8″ Kansas   Andrew Wiggins is so explosively athletic that it will be tough to not picture him being the best player to come out of this draft.  He has an excellent jump shot to go along with his freakish athletic ability and ideal size.  He will play the two or the three right away when he gets into the NBA as his game doesn’t need much work even though he is a one and done college prospect.  I suggest you make a significant trade offer to get up to the one spot in your dynasty rookie draft to pick Wiggins.

Joel Embiid 7’0″ Kansas  Embiid is a bit of a gamble at the second spot in my rankings because of his injury history, but I think he’s going to be worth the gamble.  His offensive game grew by leaps and bounds this season as he developed a low post game and a decent mid range jumper to go along with his NBA ready defensive ability.  The foot injury that will keep him out for the beginning of the season along with the back injury that cost him his chance to help Kansas win a title will see him slide in your rookie drafts.  Don’t let him get past you.  There just aren’t enough skilled big men in the game and he could develop into one of the better ones in the entire NBA.

Jabari Parker 6’8″ Duke  I would like Parker a whole lot more if he was more athletic and better defensively.  Basically Parker is going to score a bunch no matter where he goes.  He’s a great shooter who can get to the rim and can shoot off the dribble and on the move.  He’s not the best defender and it will be interesting to see which position he ends up guarding on the defensive end of the floor.  He’s too small to guard legit fours and may be too big to stick with quicker wing players.  Even with all of that you can see him go as high as 1st overall in your rookie drafts because he can score and shoot the 3 with ease.

Julius Randle 6’9″ Kentucky Randle has an issue with his foot that may require surgery and if it does post draft you may see him tumble down some rookie drafts.  I wouldn’t let him slip past this spot because of what he can do in the paint.  Think Z-Bo lite.  Randle is a true power forward who enjoys banging on the block and has the hands and athleticism to finish inside.  He probably will be the first from this class to average a double double and could be that source of rebounds your team is lacking.

Dante Exum 6’6″ Australia All I know about Exum is what I have seen on YouTube and on some scouting sites.  He is a freakish athlete that is long and can handle the ball.  He is an excellent passer and possesses a body that can develop into a huge miss match at the point guard position in the NBA.  He may not contribute to your fantasy team year one as he will need a little bit of time to develop, but he could end up being Russell Westbrook-like if he develops as many think he will.

Noah Vonleh 6’10” Indiana Vonleh is another youngster that came out of college early.  He is big and fast with long arms and excellent range for such a young big.  He could pitch in with some decent numbers as a rookie, but he has an excellent upside as a big that can fill multiple categories.

Aaron Gordon 6’9″ Arizona Gordon is an unfinished product coming out of college, but there are two things he can do really well.  He can defend and he can run the floor and finish above the rim.  He should be able to contribute in steals, rebounds and the occasional points barrage when he gets in the pen floor, but his real value is down the road if he develops a jumper with some range.  He could be Shawn Marion or he could be even better, either way he will help your fantasy team.

Zach LaVine 6’6″ UCLA LaVine is a stash that you’re going to have to reach for.  Players with his athleticism and and shooting ability don’t fall in rookie drafts even if they are two seasons away from contributing.  I’m excited about his upside, but I may let him go past this spot if I am in a position to win now.

Dario Saric 6’10” Croatia Saric is a stash at this point because he decided to stay in Europe for at least another two years.  He would have been a top ten pick in the draft had he decided to make the jump this year, but alas his decision may benefit you as he slides down rookie draft boards.  He could develop into one of those bigs that fills almost every category as he already has NBA range on his jump shot.

Marcus Smart 6’3″ Oklahoma State Smart made the headlines for all the wrong reasons this year.  He could have been a top five pick if he came out last year, but this year he will end up a big piece on a better team.  I think he can be better than Kyle Lowry and we all know what Lowry did this year in fantasy.

Elfrid Payton 6’4″ Louisiana Lafayette Payton has a lot of speed and toughness and can already run and defend at an NBA level.  He will have to put on some muscle, but he could be a steal for a fantasy team that needs some youth at the point guard position.

Tyler Ennis 6’3″ Syracuse Ennis would be in the top 5 if he was 6’6″, but instead he’s 6’3″ and will fall in the NBA draft.  Ennis is a great passer and floor general who has some range on his shot and can defend.  If he develops an NBA 3 point shot he would be a steal down there.

Adreian Payne 6’10” Michigan State Payne can stretch the floor playing the four or the five in the NBA and should be able to defend and rebound right away.  I like Payne for all of these reasons, but he could be a guy you might get a little later than here because he lacks ideal athletic upside.

Doug McDermott 6’8″ Creighton Dougie Buckets as he’s known in draft circles is going to be a volume scorer that will help your team in 3P% and FT% while scoring his fair share.  I realy like McDermott and am going to target him anywhere I need a boost in threes and in percentages.

Nik Stauskas 6’7″ Michigan Stauskas is arguably the best shooter in this draft and should be a weapon in the NBA right away.  I will also try and target him in leagues where I lack three point shooting and where I have some guys bringing down my three point percentages.  I would rather take him at the end of the second round ideally in most rookie drafts.

PJ Hairston 6’5″ North Carolina I really wonder where we would be talking about Hairston going in this NBA draft if he didn’t get in trouble at North Carolina.  I love his athleticism and his shooting and he has a big strong two guard body that could cause some real match up problems in the NBA.  I realy love Hairston and his value could skyrocket if he lands in a really good spot.

James Young 6’8″ Kentucky Young is a really good shooter and is built to play the three in the NBA.  Teams love to use long threes that can stretch the floor and hit the corner three while also slashing to the basket and Young can do all of it.  He may take some time to develop, but don’t be fooled if he slips in the NBA draft.

Gary Harris 6’5″ Michigan State Harris is going to benefit from being a complete guard that can score and defend at the next level.  He should be in for big rookie minutes and will fill lots of categories for your fantasy team.  He just doesn’t have the elite upside that others have above him in my rankings.  Very solid second round pick though.

Shabazz Napier 6’1″ UCONN Napier is a bit undersized to play the point at an elite level in the NBA and is a bit older for an ideal dynasty pick, but he can score and is a tenacious defender.  He should be in line for minutes right away where ever he lands in the draft and if he lands i the right spot he could flourish.

Glen Robinson III 6’7″ Michigan Robinson is a real talent that was a bit of an enigma in college.  He can score with his athleticism and can defend when motivated.  He needs to work on his jumper, but I don’t see why he can’t fix it at the next level.

Let me know who I missed in the 2014 NBA Draft and what you think either here or on Twitter @Coachesser.

Adreian Payne

 

 

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