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DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays |Stay Aways |The Bargain Bin, April 8th

Just six days left in the NBA’s regular season and Friday marks the second busiest day remaining with ten games on the slate. Somebody from last weeks article goes right back into the stay away section while the must plays won’t break the bank.

Must Plays

Nikola Vucevic – C ($7,100) vs Miami Heat

Don’t be alarmed that Nikola Vucevic is coming off of the bench. Coach Scott Skiles realizes that Vucevic is one of his best offensive weapons and has been deploying him as such. The best part about taking Vucevic tonight against the Heat is his track record against them. Earlier this season he posted a monster stat line of 22 points, 10 boards, 6 assists and 3 steals. Miami gives up an average of over 20 points to opposing centres so the big man should have a big day against the Heat.

Julius Randle – PF ($6,000) @ New Orleans Pelicans

Julius Randle is coming off of a career high 20 rebounds against the Clippers. He’s had 10 or more rebounds in four straight including two double doubles along the way. I love his matchup against Alexis Ajinca who isn’t a particularly strong rebounder. I’ll be very shocked if Randle doesn’t finish the night with a big double double.

Stay Aways

Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF ($9,700) @ Boston Celtics

The most expensive player on the slate tonight is also the biggest trap of the night. The Boston Celtics are a top 15 defensive team and they guard the small forward position particularly well. Antetokounmpo has run into this three times already this year, being limited to an average of 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists. At $9,700, there’s no way he hits value tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge – PF ($7,800) @ Denver Nuggets

Denver might not be a very good team this year but that hasn’t stopped LaMarcus Aldridge from struggling against them. In three games this year, he’s averaged just 10 points to go with eight rebounds. He’s shown some crazy inconsistency this year and only has four trips to the free throw line against the Nuggets as well.

The Bargain Bin

Norman Powell – SG ($3,800) vs Indiana Pacers

As long as Norman Powell keeps getting starts, you should keep pumping him into your lineup. In his last game against the Hawks he averaged 31 minutes, the third most on the team. Minutes equals production and Powell keeps on producing

Tyler Ennis – PG ($3,600) @ Boston Celtics

Tyler Ennis is playing for next year. With all the injuries to the Bucks, Ennis has seen his playing time over the last two games average at 29 minutes. In what should be a fast paced game versus the Celtics, Ennis has potential to get 25 or more DraftKings points.

 

Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

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DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays, Stay Aways & The Bargain Bin, April 1st

Draft all of the 76ers. All. Of. Them. April Fools! Seriously, don’t do that. 10 games in the association tonight and below I’ll outline the biggest must plays, stay aways and who you should scoop up from the bargain bin.

Must Plays

Hassan Whiteside – C ($8,700) @ Sacramento Kings

While DeMarcus Cousins is off serving a one game suspension thanks to getting his 16th technical foul because of this, the paint becomes Hassan Whiteside’s to rule. I was already going to get some exposure to this game (Sacramento cannot play defence) but this further solidifies it. Whiteside was able to put up 30 DraftKings points against the Kings the last time they played…. in 18 minutes. Whiteside is a must play in GPP’s and cash formats.

Carmelo Anthony – SF ($8,500) vs Brooklyn Nets

The continued absence of Kristaps Porzingis only means Carmelo Anthony’s production goes up. Out of ‘Melos last four games, he’s only had less than 43 DraftKings points once. Out of his last six games, the fewest shot attempts he’s had in a single match was 17. Carmelo is firing away and you shouldn’t hesitate to put him in your lineup. Oh and by the way… Brooklyn is the fourth worst team in the NBA.

Stay Aways

Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF ($9,100) vs Orlando Magic

Giannis Antetokounmpo has found himself under the stay away category for the second week in a row. He’s starting to regress into his early season form and has only scored 18 points in his last two games. He’s shot the ball 14 times in that span and has only sunk six shots. In order to hit value, the Greek Freak needs to hit at least 45 points in cash games. It won’t happen.

Karl-Anthony Towns – C ($8,600) @ Utah Jazz

The Timberwolves have been exciting to watch as of late. Their young roster has a great offence. How does the old adage go? “Defence wins games”. For Utah, they’ve got the defence part down pat (they give up the second least points per game at 96.2). Karl-Anthony Towns has to go up against Rudy Gobert tonight who has been a rebounding machine lately, picking up 18 and 19 boards in his last two games. Not only do I not like Towns tonight, but I’m just not a fan of the whole T-Wolves roster against the Jazz.

The Bargain Bin

Cody Zeller – C ($4,000) vs Philadelphia 76ers

I have to keep picking on the 76ers. It makes no sense to me why Cody Zeller is $4,000. He just picked up a double double against the 76ers on the 29th of March and his pricing only went up by $300. When Carl Landry is the opposing center, most players will have a field day. Expect Zeller to go off again.

Terrence Ross – SF ($3,400) @ Memphis Grizzlies

Terrence Ross has scored 13 points in three straight games. Tonight the Raptors play a banged up Grizzlies squad. This game could easily get out of hand which would lead to more minutes to bench players. Kyle Lowry is dealing with an elbow injury so you can bet Dwayne Casey will do anything to rest his starters once Toronto builds a lead. Ross is currently in Coach Casey’s good books so look for Ross to get 25 or more minutes.

Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

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DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays-Stay Aways-Bargain Bin-March 25th

Nine games in the NBA tonight and not one team is on the latter end is of a back-to-back. Do fresh legs for one star mean he’s worth his lofty price of $9,600? Teams are also getting ready to head into the playoffs so your value now lies in not only who’s starting, but also who is still getting a ton of minutes. Below I’ll break down all the must plays, stay aways and who’s in the bargain bin for tonights slate in the association.

Must Plays

Klay Thompson – SG ($6,800) vs Dallas Mavericks

Klay Thompson priced this low is something that needs to be exploited. After having a .571% field goal percentage last night (While throwing up 21 shot attempts), I expected his price to go up by more than $100. Over the last five games, the Mavericks have given up the 5th most DraftKings points to opposing shooting guards per game (48.9). Thompson has also been heating up beyond the arc, hitting 12 of his last 15 over the previous two games. Three pointers in DraftKings give you a nice little bonus too. Thompson is a no-brainer tonight.

DeMar DeRozan – SG ($7,800) @ Houston Rockets

Playing whoever James Harden is supposed to guard in DFS is almost automatic every time. It’s more automatic now more than ever. James Harden simply does not play defence. DeMar DeRozan has had success against the Rockets before, too. In their last matchup, 19 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and two steals – he stuffed the stat sheet. Look for him to do the same thing tonight.

 

Stay Aways

Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF ($9,600) @ Atlanta Hawks

Price-wise, Giannis Antetokounmpo represents the “best SF” on the board. He should be the biggest fade tonight. At his price, he needs about 58 points in order for him to hit value while placing in a GPP. Atlanta does an admirable job guarding opposing small forwards, giving up the 21st most DraftKings points per game over the last five (40.1). Fade off of the highly-owned Antetokounmpo.

LaMarcus Aldridge – PF ($7,100) vs Memphis Grizzlies

Everyone is going to own LaMarcus Aldridge tonight in cash and GPP’s. You need to fade off of him. There’s a good chance he only gets about 25 minutes against a beaten up Grizzlies squad after the Spurs get a 10+ point lead. His production has started to dip as well, only scoring eight points and pulling down five boards against the Heat on Wednesday. At $7,100, I don’t see Aldridge hitting value.

The Bargain Bin

Omri Casspi – SF ($4,200) vs Phoenix Suns

Sacramento players are great for DFS, awful if you expect them to win a lot. They score a ton. 106.4 points per game, good for third most in the league. They also give up a ton of points. 109.2 points against per game, the most in the league. Who’s second worst? The Suns at 107.6 points against per game. This game is going to be an absolute shootout where points are going to come from everywhere. Get in on the action by taking Casspi who has been getting fed constant minutes regardless if he’s starting or not.

Jerryd Bayless – PG ($3,800) @ Atlanta Hawks

The Bucks have a very shorthanded backcourt. No OJ Mayo, no Michael Carter-Williams, no Greivis Vasquez. Enter Jerryd Bayless. He’s the only experienced option left for Milwaukee and they’re forced to give him a ton of playing time. In 33 minutes against the Cavs in their last game, he put up 15 points and five rebounds. If he can get you anywhere between 19-23 points, that’s value for his price.
Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

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DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays, Stay Aways & The Bargain Bin, March 18th

Friday is an exciting night for some of the top players in the NBA. Unfortunately in DFS, I’m off of three of the biggest names. They just won’t hit value. Tonight I found a pair of players from the same team in the bargain bin that should get an extended run. I’ll also breakdown the biggest must plays for tonight’s slate including a player that has been thriving since the trade deadline.

 

Must Plays:

Tobias Harris – SF ($6,300) vs Sacramento

Tobias Harris has been loving life as a Piston. He has a more defined role under head coach Stan Van Gundy and is shooting the ball a ton. Take away a dud versus the Wizards on the 14th and he hasn’t had less than 30 DraftKings points in five games. Against a Sacramento Kings defence that is downright terrible, Harris is an absolute must in your lineup tonight.

Toney Douglas – PG ($5,100) vs Portland

New Orleans’ backcourt is seriously banged up. That’s bad news for Pelicans fans but great news for DFS players. Toney Douglas has been reaping the benefits of being a starter and has recently torched the Warriors by putting up a line of 22 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds. Against a Trail Blazer team who struggles at defending guards, Douglas is in for a big night.

Stay Aways:

Russell Westbrook – PG ($10,500) @ Philadelphia
Stephen Curry – PG ($10,300) @ Dallas
Damian Lillard – PG ($9,200) @ New Orleans

Your eyes are reading this correctly. I’m telling you to stay away from the three best point guards in the NBA tonight. Why? It’s simple. They won’t hit value. In a cash game you need about 275 points on an average night. That means Westbrook needs about 58 DraftKings points, Curry 57 & Lillard about 51. That’s just in cash. In GPP’s you need about 300 points or more to even place and that means you need much more production from this trio. Westbrook also carries the possibility to get some rest tonight in Philly if the score gets out of hand. Curry always packs that possibility no matter the opponent and Lillard is on the latter half of a back-to-back after spending last night in New Orleans.

The Bargain Bin:

Bismack Biyombo – C ($4,600) vs Boston

I will play Bismack Biyombo until one of two things happens. First – his price exceeds $5,500. Second – Jonas Valanciunas returns as the starter. Until then, keep pumping the big man into your lineup. During his last game vs Indiana he set a Raptors franchise record by hauling down 25 rebounds. At this point, playing Biyombo is a no-brainer.

Cory Joseph – PG ($3,800) vs Boston

It’s been widely speculated that Kyle Lowry will get some rest heading into the playoffs. He didn’t sit last night against Indiana which leads many to believe he will tonight against Boston. If he does, the only other true point guard the Raptors have not named Delon Wright is Cory Joseph. He’ll log a ton of minutes if Lowry isn’t active and we all know that minutes = opportunity and opportunity = DraftKings points!

BUT… if Kyle Lowry does play

Larry Nance Jr. – PF ($3,300) vs Phoenix

Larry Nance Jr. might not be starting for the Lakers but he’s still getting playing time. He hasn’t had less than 20 minutes in four straight contests. Phoenix gives up an average of 52 DK points to opposing power forwards per game over the last five. In a battle of two of the leagues worst teams, Larry Nance Jr. should get a chance to produce.

 

Thanks for reading DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays, Stay Aways & The Bargain Bin, March 18th! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

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DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays, Stay Aways & The Bargain Bin – November 25

Stop watching Steph Curry cross over Jordan Clarkson for a second (If you haven’t seen it yet – it’s nasty) and take a look at some DraftKings NBA DFS picks.

 

Must Plays

Tristan Thompson – PF ($5,800) @ Toronto Raptors

Here’s the thing. Thompson is playing centre but is listed as a power forward on DraftKings. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t slide him at a cheap $5,800 into your lineups. With Timofey Mozgov out, Thompson is getting a lot of minutes and I mean a lot (40 vs ATL, 34 vs ORL). He’s matched up against Bismack Biyombo who cannot make a shot for the life of him. Missed shots = rebounds and that’s the name of Thompsons game. He’s been in double digit rebounds over his last three games. Look for that to continue tonight against the Raptors.

Russell Westbrook – PG ($11,300) vs Brooklyn Nets

I know. Westbrook is really expensive. The most expensive player on DraftKings tonight, but for good reason. The projected point total for the BKN @ OKC game is set at a lofty 210.5. Westbrook consistently flirts with a triple double and has the second most double doubles in the league (10). The Nets can’t guard against point guards at all, giving up an average of 52 DK points per game to the PG position. If you thought Clarkson getting crossed up by Curry was nasty, I can’t wait to see what Westbrook does to Jarret Jack tonight.

 

Stay Away

John Wall – PG ($8,300) @ Charlotte Bobcats

I don’t like back to backs for DFS purposes and I’m assuming NBA players don’t like them either. In Wall’s last game out he matched his season high of eight turnovers and that’s a big no-no in DraftKings. He’s up against a stiff Hornets defence (CHA gives up the 5th least DK points to the PG position) and things just don’t look good for Wall tonight.

Zaza Pachulia – C ($5,800) @ San Antonio Spurs

The price tag is more than appealing but the matchup is revolting. The Spurs know how to defend against bigs and they do it well. They give up a league low 40.3 DK points against opposing centres. Pachulia has been hot as of late, but expect that to come to a screaming halt tonight against Tim Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge.

 

The Bargain Bin

Alonzo Gee – SF ($3,000) @ Phoenix Suns

This is a steal. Literally and figuratively. Gee is known for his defensive play (5 steals in his last three games) but has started to chip in offensively for the Pelicans. That’s great news because the Suns give up the second most DK points to the small forward position (43.7). If you’re putting a guy like Westbrook in your lineup, Gee is perfect salary relief.

Thabo Sefolosha – SF ($4,200) @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Sefolosha has been more than ok starting in place of the injured Kent Bazemore. He was lights out from the field (7-8 FGM-FGA) and was all over the stat sheet (15 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl, 3 blk) in his last game out. Sefolosha won’t be owned in many GPP’s across DraftKings which makes him a perfect Wednesday night play.

 

Thanks for reading! If you have any questions regarding DFS strategy or season long leagues across all sports, feel free to tweet at me! (@BESTofMATT)

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DraftKings NBA DFS Plays

DraftKings NBA DFS Plays

For October 29th 2014

Well the first big slate of NBA games is upon us and a lot of NBA DFS players are going to be surprised that DraftKings has eliminated multi-position eligibility to start the season.  The ability to fit in all of your favorite players will be greatly hampered, but it should actually help the average and beginner DFS player.  Why would this help me?  Because the better players who make a living playing this game fully understand just how thin each position is and where the best value to slot a player in would be.

My favorite plays tonight-

PG

Tony Wroten-Philadelphia 76ers- 4500-Wroten should be starting in the absence of Michael Carter-Williams and is a nice source for DFS points.  He’ll be facing a depleted Indiana Pacers and should have most of the offense run through him.  The lack of scorers and efficient shooters hurts his ceiling, but he should hit well above value.

Russell Westbrook– OKC Thunder- 10200-  When you’re looking at playing a player with this type of price tag you have to look at their ability to hit value.  The entire offense will run through Westbrook on the absence of Kevin Durant.  Westbrook has the ability to put up a triple double even with Durant in the lineup and without him he should approach one every night.  He may lose some easy assists without Durant there, but he will also pick up scoring and rebounds.  Reggie Jackson is also sidelined tonight, so his breaks will be short.

Derrick Rose– Chicago Bulls- 7400- Rose makes his return in New York and will want to put on a show.  With Jimmy Butler sidelined he could put up a very nice line with a decent discount.  Keep an eye on him for the utility slot if you can’t fade Westbrook.

SG-

Eric Bledsoe-Phoenix Suns- 7000- Bledsoe can put up numbers in bunches and gets the Lakers on the back end of a back to back.  I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t mind watching him fly by Jeremy Lin all night.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope-Detroit Pistons-3600- KCP had a big Summer League showing and looked like a solid play all preseason before he injured his knee.  With him healthy enough to play he should get decent minutes, especially with Jodie Meeks sidelined.  He will be the only outside shooter on the court for the Pistons.

SF- If you’re not going Melo at 9200 (which is a good buy) you have some nice punt options

CJ Miles- Indiana Pacers- 3800- Miles is starting at the shooting guard position and could also slide to the SF slot when Stuckey comes off the bench.  Stuckey is on a minutes limit and the Pacers starting roster looks bad to open the season, especially with George Hill sidelined.

Otto Porter Jr. – Washington Wizards- 3000-  Porter Jr. is going to see minutes at the two and the three on opening night and can contribute in a bunch of categories.  Wall needs a running mate with Beal sidelined and I like Porter Jr.’s opportunity tonight.

PF-

LaMarcus Aldridge– Portland Trailblazers-9200- The price seems a little low if you think about the numbers Aldridge puts up, but he does face an elite defender in Serge Ibaka tonight.  I don’t see a ton of upside in this play, but it’s pretty safe for a cash game.

Ed Davis-LA Lakers- 3900- Davis went for 11 ponts-6 rebounds-1 steal and 2 blocks yesterday against Houston and now will be counted on a lot more with Julius Randle going down.  Boozer isn’t getting any younger and might not be able to log that many minutes in the second game of a back to back.  Davis also gets to play the five and it doesn’t hurt him against the Suns who play small.

Marcus Morris-Phoenix Suns- 3600- The second Morris should start at the small forward position and play some four against the smallish Lakers.  Morris had a nice preseason and will want to have a good showing with the chance for him to grab a full time starting role.  He’s an interesting play with the rotation down a few players that could eat into his minutes.

C-

Al Jefferson– Charlotte Hornets- 9100- Big Al started out of the gates slowly last season, but in the second half he was one of the best DFS plays you could make, especially in cash games.  His big body should be hard to handle for the slender Larry Sanders and John Henson.

Mason Plumlee– Brooklyn Nets- 5400-  Plumlee gets the start for the injured Brook Lopez and he could play a ton of minutes if he can control the fouls.  Plumlee is a double double waiting to happen with his hustle and leaping ability, but he actually looked a lot better of the summer.  He develped a nice little jump hook and hung with the best the USA had to offer.

Samuel Dalembert-New York Knicks- 4000- Dalembert gets the nod due to heavy minutes to start the season.  The Knicks need a rim protector and Dalembert is it.  He should have a nice rebounding game and you just need 10 points form him to hit value with his ability to block shots.

Steven Adams– OKC Thunder- 3500- Kendrick Perkins is finally pushed to the bench.  Last year I compared Adams to a great dane because he has know clue just how big he is.  He is a the perfect price to take a chance on tonight, but he is another guy that can hurt you if he gets into foul trouble.  At that price his fouls should be an issue.  Big time double double potential with a few blocks and assists thrown in.

Jason Smith-New York Knicks- 3000- Smith is one to keep an eye on as far as possible starters go.  The rumor is the Knicks could start Smith next to Dalembert.  With Bargnani injured there’s one less body for the rotation.  Acy should see minutes, but Chicago is pretty tall across the back line and the Knicks won’t want to allow them to push them around at home.  He has a lot of upside if he gets the minutes tonight, but Adams is by far the safer play.

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