James Harden – The Fantasy Sports Coach

DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays-Stay Aways-Bargain Bin-March 25th

Nine games in the NBA tonight and not one team is on the latter end is of a back-to-back. Do fresh legs for one star mean he’s worth his lofty price of $9,600? Teams are also getting ready to head into the playoffs so your value now lies in not only who’s starting, but also who is still getting a ton of minutes. Below I’ll break down all the must plays, stay aways and who’s in the bargain bin for tonights slate in the association.

Must Plays

Klay Thompson – SG ($6,800) vs Dallas Mavericks

Klay Thompson priced this low is something that needs to be exploited. After having a .571% field goal percentage last night (While throwing up 21 shot attempts), I expected his price to go up by more than $100. Over the last five games, the Mavericks have given up the 5th most DraftKings points to opposing shooting guards per game (48.9). Thompson has also been heating up beyond the arc, hitting 12 of his last 15 over the previous two games. Three pointers in DraftKings give you a nice little bonus too. Thompson is a no-brainer tonight.

DeMar DeRozan – SG ($7,800) @ Houston Rockets

Playing whoever James Harden is supposed to guard in DFS is almost automatic every time. It’s more automatic now more than ever. James Harden simply does not play defence. DeMar DeRozan has had success against the Rockets before, too. In their last matchup, 19 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and two steals – he stuffed the stat sheet. Look for him to do the same thing tonight.

Stay Aways

Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF ($9,600) @ Atlanta Hawks

Price-wise, Giannis Antetokounmpo represents the “best SF” on the board. He should be the biggest fade tonight. At his price, he needs about 58 points in order for him to hit value while placing in a GPP. Atlanta does an admirable job guarding opposing small forwards, giving up the 21st most DraftKings points per game over the last five (40.1). Fade off of the highly-owned Antetokounmpo.

LaMarcus Aldridge – PF ($7,100) vs Memphis Grizzlies

Everyone is going to own LaMarcus Aldridge tonight in cash and GPP’s. You need to fade off of him. There’s a good chance he only gets about 25 minutes against a beaten up Grizzlies squad after the Spurs get a 10+ point lead. His production has started to dip as well, only scoring eight points and pulling down five boards against the Heat on Wednesday. At $7,100, I don’t see Aldridge hitting value.

The Bargain Bin

Omri Casspi – SF ($4,200) vs Phoenix Suns

Sacramento players are great for DFS, awful if you expect them to win a lot. They score a ton. 106.4 points per game, good for third most in the league. They also give up a ton of points. 109.2 points against per game, the most in the league. Who’s second worst? The Suns at 107.6 points against per game. This game is going to be an absolute shootout where points are going to come from everywhere. Get in on the action by taking Casspi who has been getting fed constant minutes regardless if he’s starting or not.

Jerryd Bayless – PG ($3,800) @ Atlanta Hawks

The Bucks have a very shorthanded backcourt. No OJ Mayo, no Michael Carter-Williams, no Greivis Vasquez. Enter Jerryd Bayless. He’s the only experienced option left for Milwaukee and they’re forced to give him a ton of playing time. In 33 minutes against the Cavs in their last game, he put up 15 points and five rebounds. If he can get you anywhere between 19-23 points, that’s value for his price.
Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

DraftKings NBA DFS Must Plays, Stay Aways & The Bargain Bin, March 11th

Friday night is basketball night! The association is packed with ten games for you to choose from. I’ll breakdown the must plays of tonight, the stay aways and who you should dive into the bargain bin for.

Must Plays:

Brook Lopez – C – ($7,800) @ Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers are bad. I shouldn’t have to tell you this. They’re also pretty bad at defence in the paint. Brook Lopez should be able to have his way against Philly’s bigs. Only once in his last four games has he attempted less than 17 shots. While the 76ers have given up 65.3 DK points over the last five to opposing centres, Brook Lopez should be firmly placed in your lineup.

Damian Lillard – PG – ($9,800) @ Golden State Warriors

If the Trail Blazers have a shot at beating the Warriors (which they do), it’ll rest solely on Damian Lillard’s shoulders. Ever since the all-star snub (and releasing a song about it) he’s been on fire. Golden State doesn’t defend the point guard position well (54.9 DK points per game over the last five to opposing PG’s). Lillard has played the Warriors twice and has averaged 45.5 points against them. You didn’t read that wrong. Get him in your lineup.

Stay Aways:

James Harden – SG – ($10,600) @ Boston Celtics

James Harden is usually a safe play in cash games but tonight he’s not. He’s struggled against the Celtics strong defence this year. He only produced 21 DK points to go along with just 16 points and 3 assists. In order for Harden to hit value tonight in a cash game, he needs about 42.4 points. I just don’t see that happening. Harden is way too expensive tonight

Marvin Williams – PF – ($5,400) vs Detroit Pistons

Please fade Marvin Williams. His ownership has been through the roof because he’s been pretty consistent (minus a dud against the Pacers). Williams has been making opponents pay with his mobility and his ability to spread the floor. Someone who does that as well? Tobias Harris. Detroit looks like a way better team with Harris and Andre Drummond roaming the paint. Marvin Williams will produce a dud

The Bargain Bin:

Jason Smith – PF – ($3,500) @ Sacramento Kings

With DeMarcus Cousins taking a seat for screaming at George Karl, that leaves Jason Smith as a very good option against a banged up Kings team. Aaron Gordon would be the play here BUT he’s just way too expensive at $6,700. Smith isn’t afraid to shoot the ball. He’s thrown up 22 shots over his last two games and has hit value on his very low price. I don’t expect that to stop tonight.

Avery Bradley – SG – ($4,700) vs Houston Rockets

My favourite play. The “Whoever James Harden is Guarding” play. Avery Bradley is perfect for this category. He loves to toss up three pointers and DraftKings rewards you for drafting three point shooters. In limited time the last time Boston squared off against the Rockets, Bradley picked up 21 points on his way to a 28.3 DK point performance. He should match that and then produce more tonight.

Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @BESTofMATT