Justin Verlander

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Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft

Swag-Diamond Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Recap and Analysis

7- Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B $41    Encarnacion was one of my main targets in this auction.  Starting only 3  Outfielders and adding a Corner-Infielder spot makes Encarnacion a nice option instead of blowing your entire budget on Mike Trout ($57) or Andrew McCutchen (who went to @naapsterman for only $45).  I was in on McCutchen, but once it went to 45 I backed off.  Encarnacion ended up going for the same as Chris Davis and $5 dollars cheaper than Paul Goldschmidt.

15- Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS $31  Obviously I am gambling on health with Tulowitzki, but who aren’t you gambling with health when it comes to the top Short Stops.  Hanley Ramirez ($38) isn’t exactly Super Man and Jose Reyes (only $19 to Ryan Forbes who had a great auction) is, well Jose Reyes.  I had Tulow as a $30 player so one extra wasn’t a huge deal.

45 Jose Bautista, Tor OF $24  Bautista was my biggest target in this auction.  In 5 x 5 with OB% instead of BA% he can be huge.  I was hoping to get him for $22 and went to $24 which was one below my $25 dollar rating.

54 Justin Upton, Atl OF $7 All I can say is everyone fell asleep on this one.  I only threw out a $7 bid because there didn’t look to be to much action and I didn’t exactly want him, but I wouldn’t mind making someone else pay for him.  By getting him for only $7 dollars it opened me up to spend a little more at other spots.

57 Justin Verlander, Det SP $21 Verlander was my #4 Starting Pitcher before the injuries to Darvish and Kershaw and now he is a much tighter 3B.  His price was scoffed at a bit, but then Strasburg went for $33 and Scherzer, Wainwright and Sale all went for $26, Verlander’s price didn’t look all that bad.

89 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B $9 Oh boy did I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar on this one.  I was hoping some of my fellow owners would be bidding him up on the account of his strong spring and of course when I thought someone would go to $10 they stuck me with him for $9.  Moustakas was a $5 player in my ratings and I almost doubled that up.

90 Wilin Rosario, Col C $19 Rosario is a target of mine everywhere.  I overpaid for him here, but when I looked at the Catchers that were available after he was put up, there was no one that could come close to what he brings.  He ended up costing the same as Joe Mauer and was 6 and 5 dollars less than Santana and Posey, respectively.

94 Jered Weaver, LAA SP $12 Another one where I got caught bidding up.  I was hoping some people would be desperate for starting pitching and paying for past performance, but $12 was not a bad price for Weaver.  FantasyPros actually has him rated for $12 and I have him as a $10 SP in Mixed Leagues so I’m not too upset.

104 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS $9 I needed a middle infielder with some pop and Hardy was the guy.  His BA% doesn’t matter here and his counting numbers are nice for the MI spot.  I still over paid (by at least 3-4 dollars) in a mixed league setting, but I didn’t like what was left on the board.

126 Alex Gordon, KC OF $12 Huge OB% advantage and I get him at a discount?!  I don’t know why people are sleeping on Gordon this year, but I’m not concerned as I picked him up everywhere.  I got a $8 discount according to FantasyPros and he was $8 cheaper than Hunter Pence who is a very similar player.

143 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP $16 We need to start two relief pitchers and Rosenthal was the last of my upper-tier closers left.  I spent a little more than I wanted (I have him at $12) but I had extra money to spend.

146 R.A. Dickey, Tor SP $6 R.A. could be one of those injury bounce back players, but I only wanted him at the right price with his high WHIP so $6 was perfect.

147 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B $8 Moustakas was not going to be the thirdbaseman I was going to bank on and Sandoval was a nice back-up/starter plan for around the same price.  I wanted to only spend $7 on him, but $8 wasn’t out of the question.

165 Andrew Cashner, SD SP $8 Cashner was a big target for me. (no pun intended with his height)  With Wins not being a category Cashner is equal to a lot of the bigger name pitchers available and he can always work on getting his K-rate up.

166 Sergio Romo, SF RP $6 Not bad for my 2nd RP.  I had Romo as an $8 closer and again I get some value.  He’s in my top ten so there’s that as well.

183 Christian Yelich, Mia OF $3 Yelich is a player who i hope gets off to a fast start.  He’s a bit of a post-hype sleeper because he was last year’s version of George Springer.  A guy with power and speed who could be a huge fantasy player in the future. I’m not confident that future is now, but if he starts fast the $3 investment could pay dividends in a trade.

196 Danny Salazar, Cle SP $8 Salazar was a must because I needed to add K’s after getting Weaver and Cashner.  Salazar has top of the rotation strike-out stuff, but I think people are over-paying in redraft leagues.  $8 is not bad and is actually below where i had him rated.

200 Austin Jackson, Det OF $4 Huge discount alert.  Some people were running out of money and I picked up a steal in Jackson at $4.  FantasyPros has him rated at $16 and I have him just below that at $15.  So excited about this buy.

203 Clay Buchholz, Bos SP $3 With a DL spot available he is definitely worth the gamble.  When healthy he is top of the rotation stuff and when he’s hurt he’s on the DL.  I recently heard Eno Sarris say the very same thing and it’s always good to have someone reassure you. Cueto went for $6 and he’s the same injury gamble.  Great when healthy and when he’s hurt you DL him.

209 Marco Estrada, Mil SP $3 I really like the Strike out upside and I didn’t want to overpay for him in a room of experts.  $3 was perfect for me as I had him rated as a $6 SP.

213 Brian Dozier, Min 2B $5 Bit of an overpay here, but I needed him because I had missed out out Gyorko to TraderX for $16.  I couldn’t go that high and now Dozier was my position punt.  Not that bad a punt though with his ability to go 20/15.

222 Adam Eaton, CWS OF $3 This late in the auction strategy came to the forefront.  I knew some of my other friends in the league wanted Eaton and their max bid left was $3, so I threw out an opening bid of $3 dollars on an outfielder that people want and they were stuck letting him go to me.  If he doesn’t end up in my starters maybe I can package him for a new 2B option.

256 Taijuan Walker*, Sea SP $2 I had $2 left and I had a DL spot to use so Taijuan Walker was a nice lottery ticket to get this late.  I would much rather have him sitting on my DL then spend $2 on Danny Haren or any other former decent fantasy pitcher.

The Worst Over Pays

Ben Zobrist for $25 – that was just crazy because his number have been declining for the last few years and you can’t pay a premium just on flexibility.

Yu Darvish for $36 – It’s never a good strategy to over pay for a stud Starting Pitcher and this case was no different.  His neck issues aside this was at least $8 too much for me.

Billy Hamilton for $21 – I know the hype train is in full effect, but this is still a ONE-Category guy that should not be going in the same price range as Matt Holiday or Alex Rios.

Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg for a combine $72 – I don’t mean to pick on my good buddy Ricky Sanders here, but these were two overpays for me.  Sometimes you get caught up in the auction with your eyes focused on your targets and you blow your budget because of it.   It caught up to him at the end of the draft as his depth took a hit.

The Best Buys

Nolan Arenado for $1 – One dollar price tag was a little soul crushing for me as I paid a combined $17 for Panda and Moustakas.  I really like Arenado this year and I would have been a lot happier if I went Panda and Arenado and saved the Moustakas money to get Gyorko at 2B.

Austin Jackson for $4 – This guy score a ton of runs and he will steal bases.  His OB% is not ideal for an OB% league, but he is still worth at least 4x the cost.  I won’t even count the Upton buy because there was a lot of chatter in the message box when that was going on.  Distracted everyone.

Hisashi Iwakuma for $8 – Renee Miller picked up a nice injury steal here by getting the excellent Iwakuma for below market value.  I have Iwakuma as a $15 pitcher and would have loved to get him, but Renee made a great buy.

Aroldis Chapman for $5 – This was a really smart buy considering he will still pitch for at least 17 weeks of the season.  He cost the same as Booby Parnell who could lose his job the first month of the season.

 

FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft

This year I made the choice to join the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and I couldn’t be happier.  Not only do I get to belong to a great group that supports the industry’s best and brightest, but I get to participate in leagues with fellow writers.

This season I was asked to join the latest FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft (The Nado DiFino Award) and I thought that was a great chance to see where my rankings stacked up before my main money leagues drafted over the next two weekends.

For Reference FSWA Leagues Start-

CC,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P

and Scoring is

Runs,RBIs,SBs,OB%,Slugging%     –     Ks,ERA,WHIP,QS,Saves

When I found out I had the fourth pick in the draft I was praying that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me becuase he fills up all five offensive categories and plays a position that will end up being depleted with 12 teams having to start 5 Out Fielders.  Well in a draft full of fantasy writers that didn’t happen.  Paul Goldschmidt was there for me to take him, but in a league where you start 9 Pitchers every week I couldn’t pass up on the clear number one, tier to himself, Clayton Kershaw.  That was the first of many slightly controversial picks I made in this draft.

Clayton Kershaw

COACH ESSER DENNIS
4 Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP  Over Goldschmidt was tough, but I’m happy
21 Jose Bautista, Tor OF  Needed a high upside Outfielder and Bautista can top four categories if healthy
28 Justin Verlander, Det SP  This was a personal preference. I have him rated 3rd-SP most don’t
45 Joe Mauer, Min C  2-Catcher League Mauer is huge in OB% and Runs
52 Matt Kemp, LAD OF  -Big gamble on health here. Wouldn’t have got him in the next round
69 Matt Carpenter, StL 2B  -Value pick here as he is plus in Runs,OB% and decent in Slugging%
76 Josh Donaldson, Oak 3B  -Another value pick, Wanted to wait and go with a sleeper later, but not bad.
93 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP  -The last of the upper tier Closers and now with Chapman hurt its good value
100 Jose Abreu, CWS 1B  -needed some upside power at 1B and love to gamble on Abreu
117 Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP  -Iwakuma has a lot of upside as long as that finger is ready soon
124 Danny Salazar, Cle SP  -Salazar is going to break out this year and reached a little here
141 Austin Jackson, Det OF  -Jackson was always a target and his ESPN ADP kept him off screen
148 Jason Castro, Hou C  -Castro was the last offensive Catcher that could be plus in Slugging%
165 Jason Grilli, Pit RP  -Steady closer who has a decent WHIP as well
172 Brad Miller, Sea SS  -big time target for me and it was tough to lay off Castro and Simmons as they fell
189 Khris Davis, Mil OF  -Fourth Outfielder with power upside-a bit of a gamble
196 Lance Lynn, StL SP  -Lynn is nice starter to have in this format with his K totals
213 Matt Garza, Mil SP  -Auto picked Garza when Adam Eaton was in my que but had been sniped-still stings
220 Nate Jones, CWS RP  -The last decent upside closer left.
237 Taijuan Walker, Sea SP  – Walker here was a round early based on ADP, but the shoulder sounds good
244 David Freese, LAA 3B  – Batting fourth against Lefties and if healthy not a bad Corner Infielder
261 Oswaldo Arcia, Min OF  – One of my favorite late round power sources
268 Michael Brantley, Cle OF  -Solid outfielder with room for improvement-pure depth
285 Neil Walker, Pit 2B  – Could be a nice value pick for MI depth-if not, to the wire I go
292 Devin Mesoraco, Cin C -Vargas knee issues had me looking for a 3rd Catcher when normally I wouldn’t
309 Todd Frazier, Cin 3B  – Too much potential this late in the draft.  RBIs in a pinch
316 Erik Johnson, CWS SP  – Late round sleeper or bust.  I like what I saw last year and worth a gamble
333 Junior Lake, ChC OF  – Needed Steals and he could get 20 this year while putting up decent Slugging%

As you can tell my team lacks stolen bases and I will have to look to make a trade early on or raid the waiver wire for this year’s Nate McLouth.  Let me know what you think and who you are targeting in your fantasy baseball drafts.

Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

Through the first few of my actual money drafts of 2014 the same players keep sliding in drafts.  Many of these undervalued players have already become roster magnets for me and I really can’t complain based on past performance or the 2014 projections I have on these players.  So without further adieu these are some players you should target when they start to fall.

Wilin Rosario-Catcher-Colorado Rockies

Wilin Rosario Colorado Rockies

Rosario is one of the only catchers in the league that has 30 homer potential, yet he continues to slide in drafts.  In leagues that only start one catcher and are smaller than 14 teams i don’t tend to worry too much about drafting the position unless there becomes a clear “value win” or I feel the catcher run is in full swing.  It’s a lot like dealing with a one quarterback league that doesn’t weigh touch down passes as six points in fantasy football.  After the first few catchers it’s pretty much fantasy league average through catcher 14 in my rankings.  Rosario is the only one in my high-mid catcher rankings that I tend to target because of the home run potential.  If you see your team is slipping in that category in Roto-style or if Home Runs count as 5 points in your points league then don’t miss out on this guy.  You can find his current ADP at Fantasy Pros Here.

Justin Verlander-Starting Pitcher-Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is a stud.  Instead of remembering his up and down season from last year try and remember how dominant he was in the playoffs. (23 Innings – 1 Run – 31 Strikeouts)  Those are the numbers that get you excited about owning Justin Verlander and those are the numbers that are going to make him a draft steal this year.  He is regularly going behind last year’s rookie phenom Jose Fernandez in drafts and that’s just not right.  I have Verlander ranked right in my top 5 and have no fears at all about his perceived regression last year.  Don’t let him last too long in your drafts because you will be sorry.  Go to Fantasy Pros here for his current ADP across all sites.

Kyle Seager-Third Base-Seattle Mariners

Kyle Seager Under Valued

Last year it was tough to own any Mariners besides King Felix (Felix Hernandez) and be happy about it, but Kyle Seager quietly had a very good year and he did it with multiple position eligibility in some formats.  This year people seem to have forgotten that Seager showed pop (22 homers) and even some decent wheels (9 stolen bases).  Seager has even more value in leagues that start a corner infielder, but in leagues that start a traditional lineup he can be the ideal first player on your bench or utility player.  Instead of going in the low to mid 70s he is regularly available in the ealry 100s in drafts and I seem to be picking him off constantly.  Go here to see his current ADP across all sites.

Hunter Pence-Out Fielder-San Francisco Giants

Hunter Pence Fantasy BaseballAll Hunter Pence did last year was put up solid numbers in almost every category (.283-27 HRs-99RBIs-22SBs) and yet during drafts this year he continues to be over looked constantly.  I know people always like their new shiny toys, but Billy Hamilton over Hunter Pence has happened far too often.  I know his swing is ugly, but you don’t actually have to watch every at bat of your second fantasy outfielder.  Seriously I can’t think of any reason he should slide this low (current ADP) unless it’s purely on aesthetics or latent antisemitism.

 

Don’t Drink The Sand

The perception of starting pitching depth on a fantasy baseball team is the same mirage that exists with respect to depth at running back in fantasy football leagues.  You are always one pitch or one carry away from being in a bind.  With pitchers, it could be age and frailty such as with Andy Pettitte and Jake Peavy.  Or perhaps it is flawed mechanics that have caused your fantasy ace, Stephen Strasburg, to start drawing comparisons to Mark Prior.  From forearm tightness to sore shoulders, fantasy GMs are constantly trying to avoid season-ending injuries to their starting pitchers.  On the other hand, running backs are just a few fumbles or a lethal hit away from being relegated to the bench.  The mere sight of your player on the week’s injury report will send many GM’s running to the waiver wire.  In the end, GM’s who thought they had plenty of depth at the position realize how shallow their rosters really are.

Coming into this fantasy baseball season, the best advice I received was to grab as many quality starting pitchers as possible.  Sure, draft the great position players early but make sure I stockpile as many arms as I could because you never know when injuries may occur.  I heeded this advice throughout the season thus far and picked up additional quality starting pitching even though I thought I had sufficient depth at the position to start the year.  I drafted Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Julio Teheran, Andy Pettitte, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren.  I quickly dropped Hammel and Haren for Shelby Miller and Justin Masterson.  I then dropped Pettitte for Patrick Corbin as I didn’t want another injury prone starter in my rotation.

Jake PeavyWe all knew Peavy was eventually going to be on the disabled list…we just didn’t know when.  Drafting Peavy was the equivalent of drafting Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden in a fantasy football league.  Doing either of these things requires you back them up with quality options.  Peavy had been performing well up until his last two outings.  I was relieved it was an injury (non-displaced rib fracture) and not ineffectiveness that caused his recent poor outings.

Well, the dreaded time has come for many fantasy owners including myself.  While I lost Peavy to the DL, he was not alone.  Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg and Brendon Morrow were also placed on the disabled list.  Morrow’s DL stint is a blessing after the way he has pitched.  But for Cueto, he just recently came back and started to look like his old self.  However, Strasburg is the one that scares me the most.  He was likely drafted very high and was counted on to Strasburg injuryperform at an almost Verlander/Kershaw level.  That hasn’t happened up to date and now he is injured again.  I’m pretty sure GM’s are cursing at themselves watching Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki tearing it up while Strasburg is on the mend.

I am happy to roll out my rotation week after week and try and weather this injury storm.  I am reluctant to trade my pitching because this is what can happen.  I may think I’m six deep at quality starters, but I’m always one pitch, batted ball, or slip in the shower away from combing the waiver wire.

This article was originally featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

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