Kyle Seager – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Garbage Picking
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Watch

Fantasy Baseball owners are as bad as toddlers when it comes to patience. They want the results now and two bad starts or two tough weeks at the plate is just too much for them to take. They’ll jump ship before a distress signal has even been sent. Leagues with limited or no DL slots make this time of year exciting to watch the drop section of your league’s transaction log. Remember it’s always better to take the bad end of a trade then drop a potential asset. No matter what I say or do I will never change the average owner, so I have to just sit back and garbage pick through their drops.

Leonys Martin owners haven’t had a lot to smile about so far.

Erik Johnson- Chicago White Sox- Starting Pitcher

Johnson had a lot of helium in early drafts before Alex Wood and Yordano Ventura stole all the pre-draft hype. Through his first two starts Johnson looked like he was going to prove that his draft stock deserved to be falling by looking very hittable. Those who dropped him may be kicking themselves after watching him dominate the Red Sox lineup yesterday to the tune of 9 strike outs in 6 and a 1/3 innings. Johnson is a fringe pitcher in 12 team mixed, but is a must roster in any larger leagues. His strike out upside is just better than what you probably have at the bottom of your rosters.

Dexter Fowler- Houston Astros – Center Fielder

Fowler started out of the gates hot and owners were patting themselves on the back just like last year that they took him late in drafts, but an illness has really sapped Fowler for the last few weeks and owners are starting to panic. He has been dropped in a ton of leagues for streaming types like David Murphy or Dayan Viciedo and that was a mistake. I am not a huge fan of Fowler. I’m not one of these guys that think he will all of a sudden put it all together and be a premier outfielder. (some people actually believe that.) I think he’s a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder to have who can fill power and speed categories when you’re in a pinch. He should be rostered in in all 12 team mixed leagues with at least 5 bench spots.

Kyle Seager- Seattle Mariners- Third Baseman

Seager is off to another slow start this year. Last season he was dropped almost everywhere in 12 team mixed leagues only to see him become a valuable asset down the stretch. He no longer holds second base eligibility, but third base isn’t the deepest position in the league. With players like Moustakas, Sandoval, Lawrie and Freese struggling and Middlebrooks and Beltre hurting it makes hanging on to Seager that much harder. The reason I say harder is because owners see third-baseman like Marcus Semien and Trevor Plouffe flying off the waiver wire while they sit on their hands. I believe owners should just keep Seager on the bench if they can. He’s too valuable as a third-baseman that has the ability to hit 20+ homers and steal 10 bases.

Khris Davis-Milwaukee Brewers-Left Fielder

Davis being dropped is an example of expectations being too high in the fantasy draft process. People were punting homers in the middle of their drafts thinking they were going to grab Davis late and get a potential 25-30 homer guy. That is a lot to ask of a young player. I still like Davis a lot, but I wasn’t banking on him as my steady 3rd Outfielder. Don’t cut bait on Davis just yet, unless there’s something crazy on the waiver wire. Keep him on your bench until he gets his feet under him and starts to get better pitches to hit. In leagues of 14 or bigger I wouldn’t think of dropping him yet. The Jason Kubel’s of the world will always be there to pick up if Davis is still struggling in a month or two.

Leonys Martin-Texas Rangers- Center Fielder

Martin is caught up in the downward spiral that is the Texas Rangers. The injuries to the pitching staff and lineup have lumped a lot of pressure on players that aren’t used to shouldering it. Martin’s spot in the lineup was always going to keep his numbers somewhat down, but he has gotten off to much slower start than I would have thought. He’s got zero extra base hits and only two steals so I can understand the frustration. Martin is another one I am holding on to with all my might and I’m even trying to target as a secondary throw in in trades. When the Rangers get healthy and the heat picks up in Texas I expect Martin to break out.

Some studs that I have seen or heard hit the waiver wire. Allen Craig (Dan Strafford just told me about this one), Wilin Rosario, and David Ortiz.

Some other guys people might be losing patience for that you should pick up. Brett Lawrie, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Billy Butler and Xander Bogaerts. I wish I played in more leagues where they hit the wire!

Seattle Mariners Future
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Seattle Mariners Future

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Seattle Mariners Future

Robinson Cano leads the Seattle Mariners

Robinson Cano Has A Lot To Smile About in Seattle

TheSeattle Mariners future is now folks. I thought they were a year or two away just as recently as the beginning of spring training, but they are becoming a team that can not be overlooked on the field, or int he box score.

Oh the all important box score for the fantasy baseball player. It used to be we, as fantasy baseball players and fanatics, would only check the Seattle box score when we either had King-Felix (Felix Hernandez) pitching that night or when we were facing him. The only other time I may have caught myself checking the Mariners’ position players is when I was completely injury ravaged and wanted to see who was actually alive and starting for them.

So that’s last night’s box score from the Mariners game. Just glancing at it will let you know that James Paxton had a very good night. This early in the season he more than likely didn’t pitch into the 9th inning so what ever he did he didn’t give up a run to a decent offensive baseball team in the Angels. In reality if you watched the game you would have seen James Paxton look like one of the most dominant left handed starting pitchers to come a long in a long while. His fastball was touching 98mph and his off speed stuff was almost unhitable after seeing that cheese.

The offensive performance was more of the early season same for these Mariners. Abraham Almonte got on base a few times. Brad Miller drove the ball hard when he wasn’t striking out (2 for 5 with 3 K’s last night.). Robinson Cano continued to stay hot going 2 for 4 and Justin Smoak and Corey Hart provided some middle of the order power, both homering in the 9th inning. Dustin Ackley couldn’t keep his hot streak alive as he was 0 for 4, but he has never looked more like the 2nd overall pick that he was then now.

This off season I have to admit I was a little obsessed with the Seattle Mariners. I could not get enough news about the health of Taijuan Walker and the short stop battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. I was also targeting Hisashi Iwakuma in my Fantasy Baseball drafts because I would be getting a nice injury discount. Walker seemed to be passing every hurdle without complaint as he rehabbed his sore shoulder and Brad Miller outmashed Nick Franklin in Spring Training to nail down the coveted short stop spot for the Mariners.

A Team Of Ifs

The Starting Rotation: If each member of the starting rotation stays healthy and pitches up to their ceiling as players then the Mariners will have one of the best, if not the best rotation in the American League. Felix Hernandez is often over looked when talking about aces because people think too much about the win as a stat. Hernandez still has the best swing and miss stuff in the league (20 change-ups the other night and 17 swing and misses) even though his fast ball isn’t as fast as it once was. Hernadez’s control and movement make him an uncomfortable at bat for anyone in the league. Erasmo Ramirez was supposed to explode on the scene last year, but he struggled in his first season in the bigs. There was nothing wrong with his stuff, it was just his confidence and ability to pin point his pitches. This spring The Eraser was stellar in Spring Training and won a safe spot at the top of the Mariners rotation. His first outing of the season was a masterpiece that only had one blemish, a sinker that was deposited over the center field wall by Raul Ibanez. James Paxton, who is currently the number three starter, is a tall flame throwing lefty that is the perfect pitcher to slot after any of the Mariner right handers. The angle of his fast ball coupled with velocity makes Paxton a potential strike out machine. Hisashi Iwakuma is 23-11 so far as a Mariner and sported an impressive 4.40 K/BB rate. I’m not sure why people sleep on Iwakuma as a fantasy baseball asset, but it really doesn’t matter to me because I just pick him where I can and include him in trades where I didn’t get him. The ultimate final piece to this rotation will be Taijuan Walker. Walker is a big time talent that has been season in the minors since 2010. The Mariners gave him a cup of coffee in the majors last season and Walker teased his potential as he had a 7.2 K per 9 rate and a 3.60 ERA. Walker was a better prospect than the highly regarded Sonny gray of the Oakland A’s and should be back in the rotation by early May, yet he was drafted at the very end of Fantasy drafts or not at all in some cases. I drafted him everywhere I could and especially targeted him in leagues where I had a DL spot or two at my disposal. While Walker and Iwakuma are on the mend I wouldn’t be surprised if Chris Young put up decent numbers for the Mariners as their 5th starter. It was supposed to be Randy Wolf in that spot, but Wolf was offended when the Mariners asked him to sign a non guarantee to his contract. So the Mariners turned to the often injured Chris Young who had lost out on a spot in the starting rotation for the Washington Nationals.

Catcher: If Mike Zunino can develop in the bigs instead of getting more seasoning in the minor leagues. The Mariners were widely panned for bringing up Zunino last season before he was ready for the challenge of catching in the major leagues. Zunino struggled and the Mariners struggled to support their young prospect. This season the Mariners added the well traveled John Buck to support Zunino and hopefully won’t put too much pressure on the young catcher to perform offensively. Zunino projected as a plus bat behind the plate and I feel like his time will come, but asking for him to be a fantasy asset this season would be a lot.

1st Base: If Justin Smoak can finally fulfill just a portion of the potential the Mariners saw in him when they traded Cliff Lee for him. Smoak is off to a fantastic start this season. He has already slugged 2 homers and driven seven runs batting in the four hole protecting Robinson Cano. This looks like the Justin Smoak the Rangers were waiting on and the Mariners were hoping for. If he can bat over .270 with the threat of power from both sides of the late it won’t be so easy for teams to pitch around Cano. If Smoak falters the the Mariners have Logan Morrison and Corey Hart who can man first base, but I don’t think that will be necessary this year.

2nd Base: Robinson Cano took the big money from the Mariners and most people said he chose the money over winning when he did. I am a Yankee fan and I thought Cano saw a genuine opportunity to be the face of a franchise on the upswing. While there are many ifs when talking about the Mariners, Robinson Cano is not one of them. Cano is the best second baseman in major league baseball and looks like he wants to be the unquestioned leader of the Mariners. Good for him and the Mariners.

3rd Base: Kyle Seager is one of my favorite young players in the league. He can hit for power with a decent batting eye and will steal the occasional base all while fielding his position better than league average. I thought Seager was going to benefit from hitting directly in front of Robinson Cano this season, but he has started the season in the 6 hole and should have plenty of chances to drive in Robinson Cano. I do think his fantasy value takes a hit in that spot, but I’m not panicking.

Short Stop: Brad Miller was the darling of the Fantasy Baseball world in the off season. With short stop being such a shallow position you can forgive fantasy die-hards for not holding back on their enthusiasm. Miller first had to beat out Nick Franklin for the position and did so convincingly. Miller has not slowed down since Spring Training and has already smacked two home-runs and is sporting an over .1100 OPS. Miller is the real deal folks. he will hit for power and score plenty of runs hitting in front of Cano, but you will have to live with some high strikeout totals. he has a big swing and doesn’t like to cut it down with two strikes.

Outfield: Abraham Almonte is a switch hitting Center Fielder that Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon seems to have fallen in love with. Almonte doesn’t offer anything in terms of power, but his speed and position on top of the Mariners order make him interesting in AL only formats. If Almonte can’t hit his weight they always have big Michael Saunders who could take over. Saunders operates as the fourth outfielder for now and is featuring in Right Field while Corey Hart continues to get healthy. Saunders is a legit 20/20 guy if he gets a full opportunity, but he has never been able to hit for a high enough average to warrant it. The aforementioned Corey Hart is a big piece of the Mariners puzzle. He is a legitimate power right handed bat when he is healthy. The only bad thing is he hasn’t been healthy in a while. Hart was a solid fantasy performer in his Brewer days before a lost season last year. A lot of people drafted him and stashed him last season only to get burned. Those same Fantasy players may have avoided him this season because of it. If Hart can stay healthy he will be an asset to the Mariners and fantasy owners with his power. The last piece of the outfield puzzle is Dustin Ackley. Ackley is a former second overall pick that was supposed to be the Mariners second baseman for the next 15 years. Instead he struggled mightily last season, both in the field and at bat, so the Mariners decided to make him an outfielder. First they tried him in Center Field which was a mistake, and now he has been give the left field job without any competition. Ackley projects as a hitter that should hit for a high average and also keep a high OB%. The only problem is he doesn’t have much power for the position. I think the Mariners figure they could come out ahead in the power department in the middle infield and eventually at the catcher position so his lack of power won’t hurt their overall team.

Closer: If Fernando Rodney can keep the closer’s role for the entire season he should ave over 40 games with this pitching rotation. If he falters then Danny Farquhar will be waiver wire gold. Keep an eye on Rodney and Farquhar if you’re in need of Saves.

As you can tell I have really been concentrating on the Mariners for selfish Fantasy purposes, but nonetheless you should start looking at them as well.

Fantasy Spin:

Zunino should only be owned in AL only leagues for now.

Smoak should be rostered in 14 team leagues and larger. I wouldn’t kill my Faab budget on him though.

Seager is some one you may have to play match ups with with his low spot in the batting order.

Miller will be a top ten short stop, but don’t go crazy trying to trade for him.

Ackley is going to be an asset in leagues with Batting Average especially because of his position eligibility. (2B,CF,LF)

Hart is always an injury risk, but makes for a nice Utility player when healthy.

Walker should be owned in every league you are in (except 8 team leagues, but what’s fun about 8 team leagues?)

Erasmo and Paxton are key targets for the waiver wire in 12 team leagues and larger. In ten team leagues it may be tough to give up on who you drafted so early.

Feel free to comment and let me know which, if any Mariners, you targeted in your fantasy baseball drafts.

Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued
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Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

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Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

Through the first few of my actual money drafts of 2014 the same players keep sliding in drafts. Many of these undervalued players have already become roster magnets for me and I really can’t complain based on past performance or the 2014 projections I have on these players. So without further adieu these are some players you should target when they start to fall.

Wilin Rosario-Catcher-Colorado Rockies

Rosario is one of the only catchers in the league that has 30 homer potential, yet he continues to slide in drafts. In leagues that only start one catcher and are smaller than 14 teams i don’t tend to worry too much about drafting the position unless there becomes a clear “value win” or I feel the catcher run is in full swing. It’s a lot like dealing with a one quarterback league that doesn’t weigh touch down passes as six points in fantasy football. After the first few catchers it’s pretty much fantasy league average through catcher 14 in my rankings. Rosario is the only one in my high-mid catcher rankings that I tend to target because of the home run potential. If you see your team is slipping in that category in Roto-style or if Home Runs count as 5 points in your points league then don’t miss out on this guy. You can find his current ADP at Fantasy Pros Here.

Justin Verlander-Starting Pitcher-Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander is a stud. Instead of remembering his up and down season from last year try and remember how dominant he was in the playoffs. (23 Innings – 1 Run – 31 Strikeouts) Those are the numbers that get you excited about owning Justin Verlander and those are the numbers that are going to make him a draft steal this year. He is regularly going behind last year’s rookie phenom Jose Fernandez in drafts and that’s just not right. I have Verlander ranked right in my top 5 and have no fears at all about his perceived regression last year. Don’t let him last too long in your drafts because you will be sorry. Go to Fantasy Pros here for his current ADP across all sites.

Kyle Seager-Third Base-Seattle Mariners

Last year it was tough to own any Mariners besides King Felix (Felix Hernandez) and be happy about it, but Kyle Seager quietly had a very good year and he did it with multiple position eligibility in some formats. This year people seem to have forgotten that Seager showed pop (22 homers) and even some decent wheels (9 stolen bases). Seager has even more value in leagues that start a corner infielder, but in leagues that start a traditional lineup he can be the ideal first player on your bench or utility player. Instead of going in the low to mid 70s he is regularly available in the ealry 100s in drafts and I seem to be picking him off constantly. Go here to see his current ADP across all sites.

Hunter Pence-Out Fielder-San Francisco Giants

All Hunter Pence did last year was put up solid numbers in almost every category (.283-27 HRs-99RBIs-22SBs) and yet during drafts this year he continues to be over looked constantly. I know people always like their new shiny toys, but Billy Hamilton over Hunter Pence has happened far too often. I know his swing is ugly, but you don’t actually have to watch every at bat of your second fantasy outfielder. Seriously I can’t think of any reason he should slide this low (current ADP) unless it’s purely on aesthetics or latent antisemitism.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups: Trade Pieces or Trash?

When going through a long season of fantasy baseball you inevitably will receive bad trade offers. Some trade offers are more offensive than others. None more so than when someone offers you a recent waiver wire pickup as a key piece in a trade. There are exceptions to this rule (big time prospects like Yasiel Puig and Wil Myers, or guys who were prematurely dropped such as Jason Heyward or Josh Hamilton), but most of the time you will be offered names like Jedd Lowrie and James Loney. (Sigh!)

I feel like sites should have built-in controls where GMs can’t offer waiver pick ups with out a two week waiting period. Maybe a little disclaimer next to the players name that says he was picked up on this date. Like a freshness label on a bottle of beer. It would be like a little scarlet letter that would eventually wear off after certain amount of time. This would relieve a lot of aggravation as well as help inexperienced GMs save a little face.

While two weeks might be a nice start, the real waiting period for seeing if a waiver pick up is truly a trade asset is right around six weeks. The six week sample size is enough to weed out the occasional hot stretch for a veteran hitter and soft schedule for a pitcher. For example Vernon Wells started out on fire (.300 6 HR and .910 OPS in April) and was widely picked up in 12 and 14 team leagues after week 2. He has since gone back to his late career ways (hitting around .230 and popping out constantly) and can be seen on your local waiver wires. While experienced fantasy baseball players knew this was just a streaking player other GMs actually tried to capitalize on his hot start and offer him in trades around their leagues.

The subsequent message board and social media ridicule after a bad trade is offered should be enough to discourage naive GMs, but some seem to be immune to these tactics. They plug away week after week picking up the Jhoulys Chacins and Ricky Nolascos of the fantasy baseball world and think they can turn them into Cole Hamels and Doug Fisters through trades. God bless their tiny little brains and their efforts, but something has to be done.

I try to chalk it up to naivete or ignorance, but stupidity shouldn’t be ruled out. The topper of these bad offers was recently brought up during a Twitter conversation with @fantasytrade411, when he was venting about a GM actually offering him someone he had just dropped! I can’t say this has ever happened to me, but if I did receive an offer for one of my cast offs a day after dropping him my eyebrows may jump clear off my forehead.

Even with prized prospects I don’t generally offer them in trades until they have played at least a few weeks in the bigs. I don’t want to burn any bridges with other GMs if the prospect doesn’t at least stay in the bigs for an extended showing. Plus I would rather know if I am in possession of a stud before I sell a player. With rookies the six week waiting period would be ideal. You need four to six weeks to see if the league makes adjustments to the player or if the player is able to make adjustments to the league. (Didi Gregorius a perfect example) Jackie Bradley Jr. had many GMs jumping the gun when he got off to a fast start with the Red Sox in April after he surprisingly made the big club out of spring training. If you were unlucky enough to trade for him, chalk it up to a lesson learned.

You can never sell too high for a recent call up, and Puig is a perfect example. His value couldn’t be higher right now and selling is a must. I recently made a trade that netted me Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. My side of the trade was centered around Puig, and included Kyle Seager, Patrick Corbin, the versatile Todd Frazier, and Justin Masterson. While my haul may seem a little one sided, it is not the most I have seen traded for the Cuban phenom. I have seen dinged up stars such as Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp, and even Roto golden boy Ryan Braun sent packing for Puig. While all of these scenarios are slightly ludicrous and reactionary, you can see the value people see in Puig’s unique talents.

Veterans picked up off the waiver wire are a completely different story. Most GMs like myself will pick up and ride a streaking player, but never think about trading him because the value just wouldn’t be there. It takes a few months of a veteran playing well above his career numbers before he attains any trade value. James Loney, Jedd Lowrie, and Michael Young have all had some hot stretches, but you wouldn’t see me trying to trade for any of them. I might lose my mind completely if I get offered Matt Joyce for Jason Heyward again in my deep league.

(I need at least another month of Heyward struggles before I entertain that one.)

If I offered another GM the hot hitting Adam Lind in a trade right now, what would he be worth? He’s 29 and has hit 35 homers in a season before, but he has always been unable to consistently hit lefties. He most likely won’t be able to touch his 2009 numbers again in his career. Even though he is hitting .350 and will hit over 25 homers he would barely fetch me a light hitting Eric Hosmer in a trade right now.

The real swings in trade value come when former top prospects seem to turn a corner. They can go from waiver wire riders to trade untouchables in less than half a season. Carlos Gomez and Chris Davis flipped the switch last year, and Dominic Brown seems to have unleashed his full potential this year. Just a few weeks into the season Brown could be seen on the waiver wire, but with his unbelievable May you would be lucky to get him in a trade for Jay Bruce. Could you imagine those words being said on draft day? “I’ll trade you Jay Bruce for Dominic Brown.”

I can’t wait to see what Wil Myers will command in a trade if he goes deep in his first game with the Rays. Without even taking a swing I can already see GMs trading Rios or Cruz for him. If he gets off to a fast start it could be Beltran or Holiday. And if he even comes close to Puig’s start the sky is the limit.

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball. I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about. I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised. Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year. My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria. Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte. My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy. But my closers have been a mixed bag. Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame. I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire. In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester. I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft. Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base. I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two. I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since. That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft. I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes. I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft. Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot. He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed). I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Being honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses. Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results. Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression. I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded. Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Weeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day. Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps. I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game. I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire. I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman. After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out. Right? Right???

The Pull of the Waiver Wire

The call of the waiver wire is as irresistible as a Siren calling me towards a rocky shore. I cannot help but peek constantly at all of the unwanted players that could be the key to a championship season. The songs are full of homeruns and stolen bases, but when you get up close you realize they are actually strikeouts and hitless nights. Unwanted relievers that look like save opportunities are actually WHIP and ERA killers dressed as shaky closers.

While it has been a long time since I have visited the baseball version of this island, my years of fantasy football have prepared me to navigate these rough waters. Some early season struggles of mid-round picks may send some GMs to dispatch their weak link early. Meanwhile, it can be a great place to buy low for the knowledgeable GM.

Some names that recently hit the waiver wire in my head-to-head league include late round sleepers, solid bench players, and even a former MVP. These players include Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner, and Justin Morneau. None of these players are going to make or break a fantasy team, but I had to pinch myself to see if this was a waiver wire reality or a free agent fantasy.

Both real and fantasy baseball pundits have repeatedly proclaimed that “Moustakas is going to hit.” Maybe so. But for now I would rather hold the fort down with guys like Chris Johnson and Jason Donaldson until Moustakas figures it out…on my bench. Brett Gardner was supposed to fill your stolen base quota, but instead he has opened the season like he was stuck in second gear. If he’s not stealing now, he will be later in the year. Don’t let another GM reap the benefits of your quick trigger finger.

Kyle Seager has way too much upside to put on the waiver wire, even if he is batting against the wind. Seager is someone you should hold on to, especially since he is eligible at second base in some leagues. Even with his recent hot streak, his batting average hasn’t surpassed .250 which is demonstrative of how poorly he started the season. Finally, I was quite surprised to see 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau on the waiver wire. Granted, if he is not hitting for power then he can possibly drag your team down in several roto categories. But he appears healthy and is a strong candidate to be traded at some point during the season. He would be worth your while to simply stash on your bench until he gets hot later in the year.

Moving on to the pitchers, many big names have surprisingly found their way to the waiver wire after failing to quickly rekindle their past glory. Dan Haren and Josh Johnson are two prime examples as GM’s might begin to hit their ejector seat buttons. (Chad Billingsley was originally on this list before it was revealed he required Tommy John surgery). Haren has been very shaky after a terrible 2012 season,and I see him as surplus to requirements in almost every format. Johnson is one of the most injury-prone pitchers in baseball, and is playing in a park that is not very friendly to sinker-ball pitchers. He got off to a very poor start in 2013, but he can still be a fantasy asset and is playing for a contract which is always an added motivating factor.

Finally, I must acknowledge that I have been greatly amused watching the train wreck otherwise known as the always-evolving “Closer Carousel.” Newly acquired Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan started out hot, cooled off, got hurt, and now looks like an afterthought with the job Andrew Bailey is doing. Carlos Marmol and John Axford lost their jobs during Week 1 with epic failures. Then Marmol has some success pitching in a setup role. As soon as he is given another chance to protect a lead, he fails…again. I mostly put his recent blown save on his manager, who brought him in the day after throwing over thirty pitches in a two inning outing. Not to mention Joey Votto was overdue against him and a runner was already in scoring position. I, like most GMs, are happy to avoid the headaches and indigestion that some of these bad closers can cause. The Detroit Tigers closing situation has been like a Mike Shanahan running back competition. First it is this guy, then it is that guy, and now it’s Jose Valverde all over again. There is a very good chance that this will change again by the time this article is published.

PS Axford might get his closers job back………

You can also see this article featured at Fantasyjudgment.com as Coach Dennis’s Diary