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Episode 017: Fantasy Football Micah James

Episode 017: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Fantasy Football Running Back Thoughts

Featuring: Micah James (@FFMagicMan) of The FFToolBox Radio Show

FFMagicMan_Avatar  About My Guest:  Micah James is the winner of the 2012 FSTA Accuracy Rankings Challenge (1st out of 61 Expert entries) and Runner-Up in 2013 — Heard nationwide on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports channel and worldwide on the FFToolbox Radio Show on BlogTalkRadio — here to help you win your fantasy football Championship this season!

Episode Summary:  Micah and I discuss the fantasy football running back position from top to bottom.  We talk about the big four, and if it’s even a big four, and even delve into the late round rookie running backs we may be targeting.  We also talk about his recent success in the Pro’s Vs. Joe’s league and how he fared in this year’s draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Episode Rundown: 

  • Intro
  • Is the Big Four running backs really the Big Four? Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson.
  • Who do we think will end up in that top four that isn’t ranked that way now?
  • Our thoughts on Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch.
  • Which running backs are we targeting after the 2nd round/3rd round turn in fantasy football drafts?
  • Which running back that switched teams in the off-season will be more valuable to fantasy owners?
  • Which PPR running backs will help teams to a championship?
  • Which running back will bounce back this season?
  • Which aging veteran will score the most fantasy points this season?
  • Which rookie running backs are we drafting in Fantasy Football drafts?
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 017:  I want to thank my former co-host on the Trick Plays Podcast, Micah James, for coming on the show and discussing the running back position for the 2014 Fantasy Football season.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

Robert Turbin Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

Dynasty owners who were stubborn with their investment in Toby Gerhart look like they will finally reap the rewards in 2014.  Gerhart is out from behind the enormous shadow of the all-world Adrian Peterson in Minnesota and is poised to be the main ball carrier and running back option out of the backfield for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  While, Gerhart patiently waited for his chance to shine, many dynasty owners had given up on him even though he put up very respectable numbers when given the chance for the Vikings.

Robert Turbin owners are in an even tougher situation in Seattle.  Not only is Turbin behind the rock-steady Marshawn Lynch, but he has the next Adrian Peterson, Christine Michael, leaving tread marks on him as he flies past him on the depth chart.  I have seen some Turbin owners become disillusioned with his future prospects when all they ever hear is how good Christine Michael is going to be.    I’m here to say stay strong brothers of Turbin ownership.

You are going to have to play the long game with Robert Turbin.  Turbin is signed cheaply though the 2015 season in Seattle, and is too valuable to the Seahawks as a pass catching option, who can pass protect.  While those skills are appreciated in Seattle, they may be even more appreciated somewhere else in 2016.

What does Turbin have going for him in 2016?

There are a ton of 27 year old and older starting running backs in the league right now.

Photo credit: Getty images

Photo credit: Getty images

Jamaal Charles 27

Matt Forte 28

Adrian Peterson 29

Marshawn Lynch 28

Chris Johnson 28

Ryan Mathews 27

Toby Gerhart 27

Reggie Bush 29/ Joquie Bell 27

Rashad Jennings 29

Maurice Jones-Drew 29

Frank Gore 31

Pierre Thomas 29

Arian Foster 27

Steven Jackson 30

Ray Rice 27

Not only are there a ton of older running backs at the back end of their productivity, but there are a couple of teams that are unsettled at the position.

Patriots- Is Ridley over his fumbling issues?  Can Shane Vereen make it through a season healthy?

Cardinals- Can Andre Ellington carry the load?

Dolphins- Knowshon Moreno is probably a stop gap if he even starts.  Lamar Miller has not shown mcuh in his two seasons.

Redskins- Does Alfred Morris fit the new offense?  Are Lache Seastrunk or Roy Helu able to be three down backs?

Robert Turbin will be 26 as an unrestricted free agent in 2016 when NFL teams may just be primed to pick up a young veteran who can play all three downs.

Turbin is a very strong and talented running back.  He just happens to be joined in the Seahawks backfield with two studs.  Here’s a highlight video of his rookie season from YouTube.  Careful it’s NSFW.  Watch without sound if you are at work or offended by curse words in songs.

Turbin’s size and speed stack up well against two running backs in Carolina, that he could eventually replace.  Here’s a chart from MockDraftable.com that shows his Combine Stats and how they rate against other running backs.

One more thing he’s got going for him, that actually means next to nothing in football skill terms, is he has the biggest biceps on a running back since Thomas Jones or Eric Bieniemy.

Things that are not in his favor:

-Robert Turbin does not have the pedigree that Toby Gerhart did coming into the NFL.  Gerhart was a Heisman Trophy runner up, to Mark Ingram, and won the Doak Walker award as the best running back in the country his senior year at Stanford University.  Turbin was a small school running back, Utah State, and was drafted 106th overall in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.  Where you’re picked and where you went to school don’t matter after you’re in the league, but if you don’t shine in your chances and really create an impression that you’re an NFL starter caliber running back then you have an uphill battle when it comes to getting a chance to start in free agency.

-The 2015 NFL draft class looks like it will be loaded with talent at the running back position.  While running backs may not ever go as high as Trent Richardson just a few years ago, they still dominate from the second round on as NFL teams try to stack talent in their backfields.

Karlos Williams Florida State

Todd Gurley Georgia

TJ Yeldon Alabama

Melvin Gordon Wisconsin

and at least for or five more backs that could be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.

-There are young backs behind some of the old guard around the NFL that may be able to step into a lead back role.

KC-Knile Davis

CHI-Ka’Deem Carey

NYG-Andre Williams or David Wilson

BLT-Lorenzo Taliferro or Bernard Pierce

SD- Marion Grice

ATL-Devonta Freeman

SF-Carlos Hyde

My Final Thoughts on Robert Turbin’s dynasty fantasy football outlook:

I’m not trying to sell you on the fact that Robert Turbin will eventually be a top ten fantasy football back in any format.  I’m just trying to sell you on the fact that there is an opportunity in Turbin’s future to become a valuable piece in your dynasty fantasy football team.  I think he’s more talented then Rashad Jennings and Jennings looks to have grabbed the starting job in New York, at least for the time being, and he’s younger and more talented then some running backs that other people have ranked ahead of him.

So…..if Turbin happens to be dropped in your dynasty league scoop him up and carve out a nice spot on your bench that may pay off decent dividends in 2016.  If you can sneakily include him in a potential trade acquisition where you are set up at the running back position for the next two years then do it!

 

Fantasy Football: Week 7 Thoughts

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Marshawn Lynch was his usual powerful self running for over 90 yards and scoring a touchdown.  His middle finger to the sideline on a goal-line pass call was like a scene from the cutting room floor of Any Given Sunday.  If I were Lynch I would be pissed as well as he is as good as it gets at the goal line.  Russell Wilson broke the spell of underperforming QBs on Thursday night as he managed 3 TDs through the air and ran for an additional 29 yards.  Zach Miller continued the tight end dominance against the Cardinals as he had 5 grabs for 40 yards and a TD.  The return of Percy Harvin to practice this week makes him a top waiver priority, but don’t expect huge numbers in this run first offense.

The Cardinals on the other hand were lucky that the scoreboard didn’t reflect their actual play.  Waiver wire darling Andre Ellington managed 5 touches for 13 yards, as Rashard Mendenhall once again led the Cardinals’ backfield in touches with 13.  Mendenhall was once again ineffective as he had only 22 yards on 13 carries, but did manage a rushing TD.  Larry Fitzgerald was playing on a balky hamstring and it showed.  He only had 2 receptions for 17 yards on 5 targets.  Michael Floyd led the Cardinals in yardage and targets, while Rob Housler had a lot of “garbage time” looks.  Housler finished with a season high 7 receptions for 53 yards.  If Jermichael Finley was your TE1 Housler may be a better roster filler than whoever gets named Finley’s replacement.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Mike Glennon was able to top 20 fantasy points once again as he made it a point to target Vincent Jackson whenever possible.  Jackson led all wide receivers in week 7 with 22 targets, while finishing with a tremendous 10 receptions for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Tim Wright got the bulk of the passing down snaps, but didn’t see the targets necessary to make him fantasy football relevant.  Doug Martin had juicy match up against Atlanta and of course he was injured while running the ball in the red zone.  Mike James took over and looked very capable in Martin’s absence.  Schiano won’t admit that Martin’s shoulder injury is season ending yet, but I would be targeting Mike James in all free agent systems.  The volume will be there and he is a skilled runner so it could be worth mortgaging your FAAB budget if your early round running backs didn’t pan out. (Wilson, T-Rich, Spiller, etc.)

The demise of Matt Ryan was greatly exaggerated as he had a fantastic fantasy day against the Buccaneers.  His big first half was enough to calm many a fantasy GMs nerves.  Jacquizz Rogers  had a great PPR day with 8 receptions for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Falcons as team found it difficult to run the ball as they had 18 carries for 18 total yards.  With Steven Jackson having a set back last week it only solidifies Rogers’ PPR value.  Tony Gonzalez was thought to be the beneficiary of all the lost targets from the losses of Julio Jones and Roddy White, but Harry Douglas had other plans.  Douglas had his best fantasy day as a pro with 7 receptions for 149 yards and touchdown, while Gonzo had 2 receptions for 30 yards.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions

The Bengals’ Andy Dalton must have heard me muttering a few weeks ago about his lack of production.  I was sold on him coming into the year as the poor man’s Matt Ryan with all the weapons at his disposal, but he had failed to breakout until the last two weeks.  Dalton had 372 yards and 3 touchdowns in a tough road game in Detroit.  AJ Green had a huge game with 6 receptions for 155 yards and a TD.  The Bengals talented tight end duo of Gresham and Eifert had 7 receptions for over 100 yards and a touchdown combined.  Giovani Bernard was held in check, but still managed over 10 points in full point PPR leagues.  Marvin Jones had a nice TD and could be taking over a the WR2 very soon.  For those of you that lost Reggie Wayne this weekend in deep leagues, I could see taking flier on the talented Jones. 

Calvin Johnson

Matthew Stafford was once again a player that many thought about benching going against a very tough Cincy Defense that never gives up 300 yard games, but if you stayed the course you were rewarded.  While Stafford wasn’t terribly efficient (28/51) he did manage to throw for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns.  That gives him 7 passing TDs over the last two weeks.  Reggie Bush got plenty of opportunities with 20 carries and 5 targets, but only managed 94 yards.  Calvin Johnson broke out big time with 9 receptions for 155 yards and 2 TDs after being a decoy last week.  Kris Durham was targeted 8 times and came away with 5 receptions for 41 yards.  Joseph Fauria was NOT the tight end to reach the end zone as Brandon Pettigrew was able to catch a touch down pass.  Fauria did see 3 targets in the end zone.  Nate Burleson is almost back and will be a welcome sight for this offense.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Thad Lewis was unable to match his week 6 fantasy output (who knew) and finished with 0 TDs.  Stevie Johnson was his favorite target with 13 total targets, but only managed 6 receptions for 61 yards.  CJ Spiller had 9 touches for 7 total yards.  7!!!!!  The future is as cloudy as it’s ever been for this top fantasy draft pick.  Fred Jackson was injured twice during the game,  but toughed it out and managed the only offensive touchdown for the Bills.

Ryan Tannehill was constantly under pressure and turned the ball over 3 times resulting in points for the Buffalo Bills.  Brandon Gibson was a PPR star with 5 receptions for 40 yards and 2 TDs.  Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline both had over 10 targets, but didn’t have the big games many expected.  Charles Clay turned his one reception into a touch down.  I was surprised he wasn’t more involved.  I was even more surprised that the annoying (for fantasy purposes) Daniel Thomas had more touches than Lamar Miller.  Miller is in a virtual time share for the foreseeable future and should be benched in most formats.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Tony Romo had a few bad turnovers, but still managed to top 300 yards and throw a touchdown pass.  Joseph Randle proved to be just an average talent, but did have 22 touches for 93 yards.  Miles Austin once again was riding a bike and it looks like he will be shut down for a while.  He honestly he doesn’t fit the offense anymore as their ideal set of receivers is Dez, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and Jason Witten are much better at exploiting matchups.  Dez Bryant had 8 receptions on 16 targets for 110 yards.  Terrance Williams once again scored a touch down and looks to be more than a dynasty league target now.  He is a legitimate WR2 if Miles Austin is phased out.  If he is available make him a top priority.

Nick Foles pretty much sunk every daily fantasy line up I had as he was horrible while he was in the game and later left with a concussion.  The good new is Michael Vick should be back this week.  DeSean Jackson failed to get going with his QBs struggling and was injured on a running play.  Somehow Jason Avant had a team high 15 targets, but only turned them into 3 receptions.  Riley Cooper had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 88 yards and still managed one bad drop.  LeSean McCoy was held in check by a Dallas defense filled with no names up front.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Gronk

Tom Brady once again disappointed, but who can blame him.  These wide receivers just can’t be relied on and he focused almost all of his attention on the returning Rob Gronkowski.  Gronk led the Patriots in targets with 17 and had 8 receptions for 114 yards.  He was tackled inside the 2 yard line on one play and failed to see a pass from Brady because of the sun being in his eyes, otherwise he would have also had a touchdown.  Brady was focusing on Gronk so much that he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown on one pass where he defender undercut Gronk’s route.  Ridley and Bolden split the touches in the backfield and both had rushing touchdowns.  Bolden getting the first crack at a goal line carry had some Ridley owners running for the exits.  Ridley is by far the best running back at their disposal, but he is nothing more than a RB2 with this usage.

Geno Smith was inefficient when throwing the football (17/33), but did manage to throw a touchdown and run for one.  Off season acquisition Chris Ivory was finally on display, but nobody decided to tell fantasy owners of Bilal Powell that Ivory would be the bell-cow for the day.  Ivory getting 34 carries for 104 yards was a nice surprise for anyone who was forced to put him in their lineups is deeeep leagues.  Jeremy Kerley was able to show off his considerable skills in the absence of Santonio Holmes by having 8 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown.  Jeff Cumberland started the game with a 25 yard reception, but managed just 2 more receptions for 16 additional yards.  I still like his skill set if you’re desperate for a tight end.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins

The Bears are decimated by injuries on defense and that trend continued as Lance Briggs was injured in this game.  The bigger problem for the Bears and fantasy owners is Jay Cutler was injured and looks like he will be out more than a month with a groin tear.  Matt Forte was in all my daily fantasy lineups and that paid off big time as he had his first ever 3 rushing touch down game.  Alshon Jeffrey made the most of his four receptions as he went over 100 yards and had an additional 16 on the ground.  Brandon Marshall had 6 receptions for 75 yards on a team high 10 targets.  Martellus Bennett made the most of his one reception with a seven yard TD.  The fact that the Bears will have to turn to journeyman Josh McCown for the next few games makes banking on anyone besides Forte and Marshall going forward a tough thing to do.

I expected a huge game from the Redskins running game against the Bears and boy did we get it.  The only thing is it wasn’t Alfred Morris who was the top fantasy producer.  Instead Roy Helu Jr. came off the bench and vultured 3 touch downs.  The Redskins ran for 209 yards and Morris was able to nab 95 of those yards while Robert Griffin III was able to run for 84 yards.  The big news in this game was the break out of tight end Jordan Reed.  The signs have been coming for a while that Reed was going to break out and now he has arrived.  The stage was cleared before the game as Fred Davis was a healthy scratch and Reed came through big time with 9 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown.  Somehow he is only owned in 25%of ESPN fantasy leagues.  That’s going to end big time.  If he’s on the wire he should be your top priority.

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers

Well this game couldn’t have ended any worse for the Rams.  Their best defensive player Chris Long was shown the door for throwing a punch in a scrum and Sam Bradford was lost for the year to a torn ACL.  Janoris Jenkins decided to enrage Steve Smith of the Panthers and was the recipient of a vintage move by Smith for a receiving TD.  The only bright spot was waiver wire find Zac Stacy managed to have a nice fantasy game (87 total yards and a TD) in a terrible matchup.  The Rams should have to lean heavily on Stacy going forward, but their run game might not be able to hold up against the added attention.  Kellen Clemons is a big down grade from Sam Bradford behind a suspect offensive line.

The Panthers had a nice fantasy match up against the Rams and failed to capitalize.  Cam Newton put up pedestrian numbers and DeAngelo Williams was only able to 40 yards on 15 carries.  If you chose Mike Tolbert in any best ball leagues you got rewarded again with a short yardage touchdown.  Steve Smith had a touchdown and added 69 yards.  Greg Olsen only had 4 targets and caught all four for 47 yards.  I’m worried that he isn’t involved enough.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Philip Rivers was super efficient going 22/26 for 285 yards and a touchdown.  While Rivers had a very nice day it was the running backs you wanted in your lineups for this match up.  Ryan Mathews rewarded your patience by running the ball for 110 yards and 1 TD.  A running back going for 100 yards is nothing to sneeze at in today’s NFL.  Danny Woodhead once again put up over 15 PPR points and has been even better than he was last year in New England.  Eddie Royal finally got back in the end zone with a diving effort at the pylon.  Waiver wire target Keenan Allen had 3 receptions for 67 yards, but was banged up a little in this one.  Antonio Gates had 6 receptions, but managed only 31 yards.

Chad Henne had over 300 yards passing, but was sacked 6 times and threw one interception.  Justin Blackmon had a pedestrian game (6-58-0TDs) after having back to back huge games.  Cecil Shorts III was a surprise start and had a team high 8 receptions for 80 yards.  Mike Brown looked pretty good against Denver last week and he looked even better this week with 5 receptions for 120 yards.  I would only look at him in extremely deep leagues unless there’s an injury to Shorts or Blackmon.  Still a name to file away.

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans

The 49ers have decided they are a running team only apparently.  They rode Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick’s legs to a victory on the road.  Kaepernick was once a gain not a top 10 fantasy QB, but did look more decisive and explosive when running.  Frank Gore had 70 yards rushing with 2 TDs and even added 34 yards in the air.  Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis got the bulk of the targets and had decent days as both just barely managed more than 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Jake Locker made a surprise start and was a top 12 fantasy quarterback as he racked up yardage and touchdowns in catch up mode.  (326 yards 2 TDs)  Chris Johnson was only used in 1% of Draftstreet lineups because of the tough match up against the 49ers, but racked up 19 fantasy points thanks to a long catch and run. Kendall Hunter is becoming a nice flex option in PPR leagues as he had 9 receptions for 98 yards.  Nate Washington saw his targets increase (10) with Locker back , but managed only 3 receptions for 62 yards.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers

The Browns played like a team that knew they didn’t have a chance to win.  Even though the Packers defense was banged up the Browns failed to take advantage.  Weeden looked awful (17/42 for 149 yards 1TD 1Int) and it wouldn’t surprise me if he finds the bench next week.  McGahee was pedestrian and the Browns haven’t missed a beat with T-Rich traded.  The big surprise was the performance by Josh Gordon.  He had 2 receptions for 21 yards on 6 targets and looked almost disinterested.  Jordan Cameron got a lot of garbage time attentions and finished with a team high 7 receptions for 55 yards and 1 TD.

Finley's career may be in jeopardy after sustaining a serious neck injury

Finley’s career may be in jeopardy after sustaining a serious neck injury

Aaron Rodgers was able to have a very representative game (260 yards 3 touch downs) despite missing two of his biggest targets in Randall Cobb and James Jones.  Jarrett Boykin the owners that rushed to the waiver wire for him last week with 8 receptions for 103 yards and 1 TD.  Jordy Nelson was limited in production by Joe Haden, but still managed to grab 5 balls for 42 yards and 1 TD.  The big issue for the the Packers is the very scary injury to Jermichael Finley.  He was having a break out game with 5 receptions for 72 yards and a hard fought touch down, only to have his health come into question on a hit over the middle.  Finley has been diagnosed with a spinal contusion and if you own him you should look for a replacement ASAP.  I honestly hope he is put on IR and is able to fully heal before thinking about suiting up again.  Andrew Quarless will most likely take over tight end duties for the Packers, but I would look to some other FA names first.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Case Keenum got the chance to start for the struggling Texans.  He had a very nice game (271 yards 1 TD) even though he didn’t have a running game to take the pressure off.  Arian Foster injured his hamstring very early in the game and his back up Ben Tate apparently broke a few ribs filling in.  By the end of the game they were down to fullback Greg Jones running the ball as third string running back Cierre Wood was inactive and later released for team rules violations.  After the running backs were hurt it was impossible for Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to build on their hot starts to the game.

What more can I say about Jamaal Charles.  He is the most consistent runningback in fantasy football.  A ho-hum 123 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the 7th game in a row.  Dwayne Bowe had a team high 9 targets, but didn’t have a big game.  The return of Anthony Fasano almost produced two touchdowns, but he was tackled inside the 5 yard line twice.  Keep an eye on him in deep leagues as Alex Smith loves to feature the tight end.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game was a struggle for both teams and for fans to watch.  Ray Rice continued to struggle and Torrey Smith was once again held in check.  Nothing more to report besides some injuries to the Baltimore offensive line that might need a shuffle.

The bright spot for the Steelers was the continued emergence of Le’Veon Bell.  He carried the ball 19 times for over 90 yards and showed nice patience when pressing the hole.  One of my all-time favorite tight ends Heath Miller caught the only touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger, but only caught one other pass.  PPR beast Antonio Brown was held relatively in check with 6 receptions for 55 yards.  My Trick Plays sleeper Emanuel Sanders was a big disappointment with only one reception for 7 yards.  He teased me and fantasy owners with with a long touchdown return, but stepped out of bounds by a hair.  UGH!

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning was able to put up big fantasy numbers (386 yards 3 TDs), but his passes were mostly wounded ducks that had fantasy owners scared about an injury.  The injuries along the offensive line finally proved to be costly as Manning was hit regularly by the Colts defense.  Manning tried to take advantage of two deep safeties by running the ball, but Knowshon Moreno failed to get anything going on the ground (15-40 1 TD) and his running mate Ronnie Hillman once again had a costly fumble.  Eric Decker had 8 receptions for 150 yards and 1 TD, Demaryius Thomas had 4 for 82 and 1 TD, Wes Welker was fed the ball late and had 7 receptions for 96 yards.  Tight End Julius Thomas had 5 receptions for 41 yards and 1 TD.

Andrew Luck was played heavily in daily fantasy football and he didn’t disappoint. (228 yards 3 TDs 29 yards 1 TD), but he did lose his best wide receiver Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL on a poorly thrown ball.  The injury to Wayne should be very concerning for any Andrew Luck owner as he leaned on him heavily.  The Colts are going to need TY Hilton and Coby Fleener to grow up fast and Darius Heyward-Bey to make more plays.  Trent Richardson was once again held in check as he looks completely lost running the ball.  He is indecisive and shows a real lack of vision.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Adrian Peterson should have stayed on the bus for this one.  With the Vikings throwing Josh Freeman to the wolves by starting him a few short weeks aster signing him, Peterson was met  by a wall every time he tried to carry the ball.  Freeman looked rusty and out of sync with every wide receiver on the Vikings as he had over 30 in-completions.  Talking about any of the receivers would be disservice to them as they had no chance on may of Freeman’s throws.  I would stay away from starting any Viking besides AP until Freeman gets acclimated.

Eli Manning was looking at another banged up secondary and another chance to get into the good graces of fantasy owners, but once again didn’t produce. (200 yards 1 TD)  Peyton Hillis was signed off the street and found himself as many fantasy owners’ last hope of grabbing a victory.  While he totaled 81 total yards and a touchdown, it was anything but a great running back performance.  Hakeem Nicks had a case of the drops and if you hoped he would be traded to a better passing team I think that ship has sailed.  Victor Cruz had a tremendous match up and only managed 5 receptions for 50 yards.  Rueben Randle was once again hit or miss.  He made a tremendous leaping catch for a touchdown and then fumbled a punt return by using poor fundamentals.  I’m a little worried that play may land him in the doghouse next week.

Fantasy Football-No Absolute Truths

Early August is a dangerous time for the casual fantasy football player.  The calendar page flips and draft dates start being thrown around in a never ending email stream.  While checking their kid’s play date schedules they check their favorite fantasy pundit’s twitter page.  They coast in and out of twitter conversations and check the occasional blog post.  They see a few experts agree with an upside potential of a fantasy running back and never think to check back before their draft.  It’s for these types of GMs that I write this warning.

STAY DILIGENT!

These casual GMs may have spied some great fantasy minds talking about how Montee Ball was a touchdown machine in college and will be a favorite of Peyton Manning.  They tuck this information away and immediately put Montee Ball at the top of their rookie running back chart and never hear about the weight that Ronnie Hillman gained in the off-season, or his excellent start to training camp.

There’s a reason that fantasy “experts” make the right choices during drafts.  They have all the information available.  They follow the beat writers.  They follow the film guys. (www.footballguys.com or www.ProFootballFocus.com)  They follow the the stats and metrics guys. (www.RotoViz.com or www.numberfire.com)  They also take all the views of the trusted opinion guys and make their own conclusions based on the strength of the arguments for and against certain players. (there are so many that I won’t mention anyone by name.)

Jake Plummer

I think it helps me in fantasy football that I am a skeptical person at heart.  I wasn’t always this way.  I was as gullible as they came when I was younger.  If you came up to me on the street and told me that you were a football expert and believed that Jake Plummer was the next great fantasy quarterback, I may have believed you. (Stranger on the street or ESPN the magazine, what’s the difference.)  Slowly over the years I have become more and more wary of people who offer free advise.

Calvin Johnson

You can never have an absolute “truth” in fantasy football.  If you don’t believe me, please don’t read any further.  I may ruin some of your preconceived notions.  I may have to spoil the fact that there’s no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy or even that rich Prince in Nigeria trying to wire you money.  The “truth” that fantasy experts advertise is a conclusion based on many, many factors that if they all align will see itself play out.  This year we have the closest things to “truths” at the top of every positional ranking.  Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham are all the odds on favorites to top their categories in fantasy scoring.  If any or all weren’t to finish at the top of their category it would surprise me, but I wouldn’t lose a night of sleep over it. (Unless I owned all of them!)

For example, while I was looking back at last year’s Rotoworld draft rankings for my long standing standard scoring league I realized that they had Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson as their 11th and 12th rated running backs in that particular scoring system.  Do I blame them?  Absolutely not.  A lot of people were scared off of Peterson after the knee injury, while others were skeptical of Lynch with an unsettled quarterback situation.  Imagine if I had picked at 12 in a snake draft and Calvin Johnson had gone in his customary top 7 spot.  I would have had Lynch and Peterson at the 1-2 turn there for the taking.  Would I have pulled the trigger in that scenario?  Who knows, but it makes me feel good to know that those types of things play out every year.

As Dick Vermeil said,”If you don’t invest very much, then defeat doesn’t hurt very much and winning is not very exciting.”

Invest the time this year and see all the angles of the bigger picture.  Take it all in and form your own opinions using every scrap of available information. Whether it’s playing the late round quarterback game, or getting Drew Brees at all costs, it doesn’t matter.  As long as you know all the factors to the equation.

 

 

 

2013 NFL Draft Recap

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Round 1, Pick 7 (7): Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
Round 2, Pick 13 (45) (from Chargers): Kevin Minter, LB, Louisiana State
Round 3, Pick 7 (69): Tyrann Mathieu, CB, Louisiana State
Round 4, Pick 6 (103): Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
Round 4, Pick 19 (116) (from Giants): Earl Watford, OG, James Madison
Round 5, Pick 7 (140): Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford
Round 6, Pick 6 (174): Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M
Round 6, Pick 19 (187) (from Giants): Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson
Round 7, Pick 13 (219) (from Panthers through Raiders): D.C. Jefferson, TE, Rutgers

The Arizona Cardinals selected a guard with the 7th overall pick in this year’s draft.  While Jonathan Cooper was probably the best player left on their board, it was still a guard in the top ten. Cooper proved to be extremely athletic while manning the offensive line for the Tar Heels, as he paved the way for the dynamic Giovani Bernard. He played at a svelte 285 and showed a tremendous ability to down field block, while also excelling in pass protection.  In the NFL he will most likely have to play around the 310 threshold to be able to anchor against bigger and stronger defensive linemen.  The running backs selected by the Cardinals in rounds 5 and 6 could end up being their RBBC of the future.  Stepfan Taylor has proven to be a tough inside the tackle runner with a nose for the goal line while playing for Stanford.  Andre Ellington was once considered to be the second or third best running back prospect going into the draft process, but slid on mediocre combine and pro-day numbers.  However, he showed the ability to get to the edge and break away once at the second level when breaking down Clemson’s game film.  Ryan Swope will be a nice special teamer and fill-in receiver, but should not threaten the lineup.  D.C. Jefferson will most likely be a practice team player, as he still needs to learn the nuances of playing tight end.

 Jonathan Cooper

ATLANTA FALCONS

Round 1, Pick 22 (22) (from Redskins though Rams): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Round 2, Pick 28 (60): Robert Alford, CB, Southeast Louisiana
Round 4, Pick 30 (127): Malliciah Goodman, DE, Clemson
Round 4, Pick 36 (133) (Compensatory Selection): Levine Toilolo, TE, Stanford
Round 5, Pick 20 (153) (from Bears): Stansly Maponga, DE, Texas Christian
Round 7, Pick 37 (243) (Compensatory Selection): Kemal Ishmael, DB, Central Florida
Round 7, Pick 38 (244) (Compensatory Selection): Zeke Motta, SS, Notre Dame
Round 7, Pick 43 (249) (Compensatory Selection): Sean Renfree, QB, Duke

The Falcons concentrated on defense in this year’s draft.  Anyone who saw their second half collapse against the 49ers during the NFC Championship game will agree that they chose a wise approach. The Falcons chose Levine Toilolo (TE-Stanford) in the fourth round.  Toilolo is an interesting TE prospect, especially when he is used in the Red-Zone.  He is tall and athletic with tremendous skills in the air, and used those skills to post up safeties and defensive backs while playing in the PAC-12.  He will not be a deep seam threat or run away from defenders, but should be a decent in line blocker.  He will most likely be used as another end-zone threat to compliment the aging Tony Gonzalez.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Round 1, Pick 32 (32): Matt Elam, S, Florida
Round 2, Pick 24 (56) (from Seahawks): Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
Round 3, Pick 32 (94): Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State
Round 4, Pick 32 (129): John Simon, DE, Ohio State
Round 4, Pick 33 (130) (Compensatory Selection): Kyle Juszczyk, FB, Harvard
Round 5, Pick 35 (168) (Compensatory Selection): Ricky Wagner, OT, Wisconsin
Round 6, Pick 32 (200): Kapron Lewis-Moore, DE, Notre Dame
Round 6, Pick 35 (203) (Compensatory Selection): Ryan Jensen, OT, Colorado State-Pueblo
Round 7, Pick 32 (238): Aaron Mellette, WR, Elon
Round 7, Pick 41 (247) (Compensatory Selection): Marc Anthony, CB, California

The world champion Baltimore Ravens had to reload on defense with this year’s draft.  They might have made up for the losses of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis with their first two draft picks in 2013.  Matt Elam, the Ravens’ first rounder, is a true centerfielder who has great range and shows good instincts in the passing game.  He is a bit undersized at just under 5’10” tall, but should be able to play bigger with his anticipation and leaping ability.  Arthur Brown, the Ravens’ second round pick, will benefit greatly from playing behind a massive defensive-line and will show why he was a  favorite of draft blogs leading up to the draft.  If Kyle Juszczyk wins the opening day FB job, expect the running game to take some time to gel.

BUFFALO BILLS

Round 1, Pick 16 (16) (from Rams): E.J. Manuel, QB Florida State
Round 2, Pick 9 (41): Robert Woods, WR, Southern California
Round 2, Pick 14 (46) (from Rams): Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon
Round 3, Pick 16 (78) (from Rams): Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
Round 4, Pick 8 (105): Duke Williams, FS, Nevada
Round 5, Pick 10 (143): Johnathan Meeks, S, Clemson
Round 6, Pick 9 (177): Dustin Hopkins, PK, Florida State
Round 7, Pick 16 (222) (from Rams): Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas

The Buffalo Bills may be kicking themselves for allowing Tavon Austin to land in St. Louis with the Rams.  Rookie head coach Doug Marrone was put in a difficult spot when he was forced to look for a franchise QB in this year’s draft.  The 2013 draft class did not have any clear cut can’t miss franchise quarterbacks the way the 2012 draft did.  The Bills should have moved even further back in the first round if they were always going to take E.J. Manuel with their first pick.  While he has great measurables (6’5”-237-4.7 forty), he is extremely inconsistent and definitely an unfinished product.  I would not expect him to crack the top 20 fantasy QB range if he is forced to play early.  If he does win the job, expect eight in the box against the Bills’ running game and reduced numbers for all their pass catchers.  Robert Woods, the Bills’ second round pick, is going to be a plug and play possession receiver in the NFL and shouldn’t take away from Stevie Johnson’s numbers.  If anything, with his smooth route running and consistent hands, the Bills will be able to extend their possessions with him being a third down conversion waiting to happen. Marquise Goodwin, the Bills’ third round pick, is a burner who hasn’t shown enough when given the chance at Texas.  If he develops some receiver skills he could become a good deep target. (think poor man’s Chris Givens)

E.J. Manuel

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Round 1, Pick 14 (14): Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Round 2, Pick 12 (44): Kawaan Short, DT, Purdue
Round 4, Pick 11 (108): Edmund Kugbila, OG, Valdosta State
Round 5, Pick 15 (148): A.J. Klein, LB, Iowa State
Round 6, Pick 14 (182): Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

Ron Rivera and the Panthers went to the defensive side of the ball with this draft.  Luke Kuechly owes the Panthers’ brass a steak dinner for providing all that beef in front of him. Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short should make playing middle linebacker an enjoyable experience for last year’s defensive rookie of the year.  Edmund Kugbila is a huge guard who will need some time to develop.  He never played above Division II and needs a lot of coaching to make the leap to the pros.  Kenjon Barner could end up being a really nice change of pace back for the Panthers but shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar just yet.

CHICAGO BEARS

Round 1, Pick 20 (20): Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
Round 2, Pick 18 (50): Jon Bostic, LB, Florida
Round 4, Pick 20 (117): Khaseem Greene, LB, Rutgers
Round 5, Pick 30 (163) (from Falcons): Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech
Round 6, Pick 20 (188): Cornelius Washington, LB, Georgia
Round 7, Pick 30 (236) (from Falcons): Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State

The Chicago Bears took Kyle Long (of the Howie Long Clan) to help keep Jay Cutler upright throughout the 2013 season.  He projects as a RT with guard flexibility, and may even develop into a blind side protector.  He has excellent measurables and played at high level while with the Oregon Ducks.  He should immediately help Matt Forte and the Bears’ offense in the running game, and should hold up well in the passing game wherever they decide to play him.  He did have a history of off-the-field issues while in JUCO that hopefully are a thing of the past.  The rest of their draft was used to replenish their aging defense.  Jon Bostic is an NFL ready MLB and Khaseem Greene will help on special teams and contribute at the WLB position.  Marquess Wilson in round 7 is a complete gamble on a kid with NFL ready skills, but issues that most teams shied away from.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Round 1, Pick 21 (21): Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Round 2, Pick 5 (37) (from Raiders): Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina
Round 2, Pick 21 (53): Margus Hunt, DE, Southern Methodist
Round 3, Pick 22 (84): Shawn Williams, SS, Georgia
Round 4, Pick 21 (118): Sean Porter, LB, Texas A&M
Round 5, Pick 23 (156): Tanner Hawkinson, OT, Kansas
Round 6, Pick 22 (190): Rex Burkhead, RB, Nebraska
Round 6, Pick 29 (197) (from Patriots): Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas
Round 7, Pick 34 (240) (Compensatory Selection): Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio State
Round 7, Pick 45 (251) (Compensatory Selection): T.J. Johnson, C, South Carolina

The Cincinnati Bengals had a very nice draft, both in value and in need.  Tyler Eifert, the Bengals’ first round pick, is a perfect complement to their passing attack and will team with Jermaine Gresham to make a very formidable TE duo.  Eifert should be a late round TE2 with some TE1 potential if Gresham goes down with an injury.  Giovani Bernard is the best change of pace back in this year’s draft.  He is explosive with a good center of gravity, and shows nice skills in the passing game.  He is a threat to score any time he touches the ball and most likely will see time returning kicks early on.  I don’t think the Bengals would draft a back this high without him figuring big time into their long term plans.  I definitely see Bernard eventually becoming the feature back down the road.  I really like him as a late round keeper or dynasty league pick.  I don’t see a lot of upside with Rex Burkhead.  He has good pass-protection skills and has nice hands, but his injury history and lack of speed will most likely keep him from having any NFL impact.

Tyler Eifert

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Round 1, Pick 6 (6): Barkevious Mingo, DE, Louisiana State
Round 3, Pick 6 (68): Leon McFadden, CB, San Diego State
Round 6, Pick 7 (175): Jamoris Slaughter, SS, Notre Dame
Round 7, Pick 11 (217) (from Dolphins): Armonty Bryant, DE, East Central (Okla.)
Round 7, Pick 21 (227) (from Bengals through 49ers): Garrett Gilkey, OT, Chadron State

The Browns are a mess and this draft will most likely go down as waste. Barkevious Mingo, the Browns’ first round pick, has real pass-rushing skills, but did not hold up well against the run in the SEC.  The rest of the Browns’ draft was used on roster fillers.  The problems facing their embattled owner, Jimmy Haslam, clearly worked their way to the draft room.  Mingo will be a good Pro, but they had too many needs to draft him where they did.  A trade back to recoup some picks would have gone a long way to solidifying this roster.  Josh Gordon, who was taken in last year’s supplemental draft, is the one caveat to my critique.  He basically was this year’s second round pick, and has a year of NFL coaching under his belt.   He showed he has first round potential last season, and will most likely be their number one receiver entering camp.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Round 1, Pick 31 (31) (from 49ers): Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
Round 2, Pick 15 (47): Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
Round 3, Pick 12 (74) (from Panthers through 49ers): Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Round 3, Pick 18 (80): J.J. Wilcox, FS, Georgia Southern
Round 4, Pick 17 (114): B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary
Round 5, Pick 18 (151): Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State
Round 6, Pick 17 (185): DeVonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina

The Dallas Cowboys took the draft’s top Center in the first round, but really didn’t take advantage of their draft’s potential.  They traded back with the 49ers from 18 to 31 and passed on a lot of quality players. (Shariff Floyd and Eric Reid just to name a few)  At 31 they could have taken Matt Elam to solidify their safety position, but reached with Frederick.  I truly believe they would have been better off waiting until the second round to select Frederick, while using the 18th overall pick to bolster other holes in their lineup.  Gavin Escobar, the Cowboys’ second round pick, has great hands and showed at San Diego St. that he can make some plays down the field.  On the bad side, he has not shown even the slightest potential to be an inline blocker.  He is not Jason Witten’s heir apparent, but could be a nice running mate.  Terrance Williams is an interesting pick, and could eventually push Miles Austin out the door in Dallas.  Joseph Randle will be Jerry Jones’ new object of fascination.  Jones will tout him as the perfect backup to Demarco Murray and wax poetic that he is Murray’s perfect complement, but Randle was at best a late round roster filler, nothing more.  With Murray’s injury history you will still be forced to keep an eye on Randle if you draft Murray in your fantasy league, but don’t expect the same numbers if he has to tote the rock.

DENVER BRONCOS

Round 1, Pick 28 (28): Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
Round 2, Pick 26 (58): Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
Round 3, Pick 28 (90): Kayvon Webster, CB, South Florida
Round 5, Pick 13 (146) (from Dolphins through Packers): Quanterus Smith, DE, Western Kentucky
Round 5, Pick 28 (161): Tavarres King, WR, Georgia
Round 6, Pick 5 (173) (from Eagles through Browns, 49ers and Packers): Vinston Painter, OT, Virginia Tech
Round 7, Pick 28 (234): Zac Dysert, QB, Miami (Ohio)

The Broncos took a space eater in Sylvester Williams with their first round pick, and he should help Von Miller rack up big sack totals as he pushes the pocket.  The Broncos then took Montee Ball in the second round and everyone in fantasy football land had to take notice.  Ball was a scoring machine in college, and showed surprising skills in the passing game.  His only drawbacks are the amount of caries he had in college (over 900), and some concussion injuries that are always a red flag for me.  I think he will be very productive during his rookie year, but I wouldn’t place him as high as most fantasy gurus, because of the amount of mileage on those legs.

DETROIT LIONS

Round 1, Pick 5 (5): Ziggy Ansah, DE, Brigham Young
Round 2, Pick 4 (36): Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
Round 3, Pick 3 (65): Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
Round 4, Pick 35 (132) (Compensatory Selection): Davin Taylor, DE, South Carolina
Round 5, Pick 32 (165) (from Ravens and Seahawks): Sam Martin, P, Appalachian State
Round 6, Pick 3 (171): Corey Fuller, WR, Virginia Tech
Round 6, Pick 31 (199) (from Ravens through Seahawks): Theo Riddick, RB, Notre Dame
Round 7, Pick 5 (211): Michael Williams, TE, Alabama
Round 7, Pick 39 (245) (Compensatory Selection): Brandon Hepburn, LB, Florida A&M

The Lions concentrated the early part of their draft on defense, but took a road grater guard in the third round.  The addition of Warford may be the key to the Lions’ running backs becoming more than an afterthought.  Larry Warford moves people, plain and simple.  He touches you and you disappear   He may not have the pass protection skills down pat yet, but he will really help the Lions become a more well-rounded offensive team.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Round 1, Pick 26 (26): Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
Round 2, Pick 29 (61) (from 49ers): Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
Round 4, Pick 12 (109) (from Saints through Dolphins): David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado
Round 4, Pick 25 (122): J.C. Tretter, OT, Cornell
Round 4, Pick 28 (125) (from Broncos): Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA
Round 5, Pick 26 (159): Micah Hyde, CB, Iowa
Round 5, Pick 34 (167) (Compensatory Selection): Josh Boyd, DE, Mississippi State
Round 6, Pick 25 (193): Nate Palmer, LB, Illinois State
Round 7, Pick 10 (216) (from Titans through 49ers): Charles Johnson, WR, Grand Valley State
Round 7, Pick 18 (224) (from Cowboys through Dolphins): Kevin Dorsey, WR, Maryland
Round 7, Pick 26 (232): Sam Barrington, LB, South Florida

The Green Bay Packers took a defensive lineman in the first round, to help keep blockers off of Clay Mathews and BJ Raji. Eddie Lacy Round two is where Eddie Lacy’s draft slide finally ended, and fantasy football fans around the country rejoiced.  Lacy has great feet and excellent vision and should immediately become the Packers’ featured back.  If Lacy’s toe really is an issue, then Johnathan Franklin is a nice insurance policy in round 4.  I expect Lacy to finally be the back that eats into some of Aaron Rodger’s fantasy numbers.  If all goes according to plan there will be plenty of production to go around.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Round 1, Pick 27 (27): DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Round 2, Pick 25 (57): D.J. Swearinger, SS, South Carolina
Round 3, Pick 27 (89): Brennan Williams, OT, North Carolina
Round 3, Pick 33 (95) (Compensatory Selection): Sam Montgomery, DE, Louisiana State
Round 4, Pick 27 (124): Trevardo Williams, DE, Connecticut
Round 6, Pick 8 (176) (from Titans through Vikings, Cardinals and Raiders): David Quessenberry, OT, San Jose State
Round 6, Pick 27 (195): Alan Bonner, WR, Jacksonville State
Round 6, Pick 30 (198) (from Falcons through Rams): Chris Jones, DT, Bowling Green
Round 6, Pick 33 (201) (Compensatory Selection): Ryan Griffin, TE, Connecticut

The Houston Texans selected DeAndre Hopkins in the first round to immediately come in and start opposite Andre Johnson. The Texans’ wide receiver 2 position has long been a wasteland for fantasy football GMs.  This pick may be the answer for the Texans and fantasy GMs.   DeAndre Hopkins has big play ability, and penchant for taking over games.  He made the vaunted defense of LSU look like any other ACC defense when he decided to take over in the second half of their bowl game.  I still think the Texans will be a run first, run second, and maybe even run third team, but Hopkins will get his fair share of play-action big plays.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Round 1, Pick 24 (24): Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
Round 3, Pick 24 (86): Hugh Thornton, OG, Illinois
Round 4, Pick 24 (121): Khaled Holmes, C, Southern California
Round 5, Pick 6 (139) (from Browns): Montori Hughes, DT, Tennessee-Martin
Round 6, Pick 24 (192): John Boyett, SS, Oregon
Round 7, Pick 24 (230): Kerwynn Williams, RB, Utah State
Round 7, Pick 48 (254) (Compensatory Selection): Justice Cunningham, TE, South Carolina

The Colts looked to Defense and keeping Andrew Lucky upright with their first few picks and probably came out okay, but no home-runs here.  Unless you are talking about more time in the pocket for Andrew Luck put up huge fantasy numbers.  I definately think Luck jumps into the top 8 must start fantasy quarterbacks this year.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Round 1, Pick 2 (2): Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Round 2, Pick 1 (33): Johnathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
Round 3, Pick 2 (64): Dwayne Gratz, CB, Connecticut
Round 4, Pick 4 (101) (from Eagles): Ace Sanders, WR, South Carolina
Round 5, Pick 2 (135): Denard Robinson, WR, Michigan
Round 6, Pick 1 (169): Josh Evans, FS, Florida
Round 7, Pick 2 (208): Jeremy Harris, CB, New Mexico State
Round 7, Pick 4 (210) (from Eagles): Demetrius McCray, CB, Appalachian State

The Jaguar’s first round pick, Luke Joeckel, will be a perennial pro-bowler and should bring some Tony Boselli comparisons out of the back of the closet.  He was 1A or 1B in many teams’ minds and will be an anchor for a suffering franchise.  I think this pick will boost Maurice Jones-Drew’s numbers and make either Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne very happy.  More time for Jaguar’s QBs means more downfield plays for Cecil Shorts III or Justin Blackmon.  (when Blackmon returns from his four game suspension)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Round 1, Pick 1 (1): Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Round 3, Pick 1 (63): Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati
Round 3, Pick 34 (96) (Compensatory Selection): Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas
Round 4, Pick 2 (99): Nico Johnson, LB, Alabama
Round 5, Pick 1 (134): Sanders Commings, CB, Georgia
Round 6, Pick 2 (170): Eric Kush, C, California (Pa.)
Round 6, Pick 36 (204) (Compensatory Selection): Braden Wilson, FB, Kansas State
Round 7, Pick 1 (207): Mike Catapano, DE, Princeton

The Chiefs took the very big and very nasty Eric Fisher with the first overall pick.  While most pundits exclaimed that the Chiefs needed to move Brandon Albert before taking another tackle, the Chiefs chose to bookend their offensive line with two beasts.  I am sure the Chiefs would have moved Albert for the right price, but with nothing enticing them,  he stayed put.   Jamal Charles and Alex Smith ended up benefiting from the dry trade market and should reap the benefits this coming year.  Fisher played against lesser competition in college, but proved at the senior bowl that he can dominate at any level.  Jamal Charles will be able to go left or right at will, while also benefiting from Andy Reid’s use of the RB position in the passing game.  Charles is a solid top six pick with top three upside if he gets his hands on the ball in the passing game.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Round 1, Pick 3 (3) (from Raiders): Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Round 2, Pick 22 (54) (from Colts): Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State
Round 3, Pick 15 (77): Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee
Round 3, Pick 31 (93) (from 49ers through Packers): Will Davis, CB, Utah State
Round 4, Pick 7 (104) (from Browns): Jelani Jenkins, LB, Florida
Round 4, Pick 9 (106) (from Jets through Saints): Dion Sims, TE, Michigan State
Round 5, Pick 31 (164) (from 49ers through Browns): Mike Gillislee, RB, Florida
Round 5, Pick 33 (166) (Compensatory Selection): Caleb Sturgis, PK, Florida
Round 7, Pick 44 (250) (Compensatory Selection): Don Jones, SS, Arkansas State

The Dolphins traded up and surprised everyone by drafting a defensive end/OLB with the third pick in the draft.   Everyone and their mother thought the Dolphins were going to take Lane Johnson with the third pick, but chose to take Dion Jordan to chase Tom Brady around in the AFC East.  With the Dolphins’ recent signing of Tyson Clabo (for a very affordable 3.5 Million) they essentially upgraded both spots.  Dion Sims, the Dolphins’ second fourth round pick, has a ton of potential, but should not be considered in this year’s fantasy drafts.  He most likely will evolve into a low-end TE2 down the road.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Round 1, Pick 23 (23): Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Round 1, Pick 25 (25) (from Seahawks): Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Round 1, Pick 29 (29) (from Patriots): Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Round 4, Pick 23 (120): Gerald Hodges, LB, Penn State
Round 5, Pick 22 (155): Jeff Locke, P, UCLA
Round 6, Pick 28 (196) (from Broncos through Eagles and Buccaneers): Jeff Baca, OG, UCLA
Round 7, Pick 7 (213) (from Cardinals): Michael Mauti, LB, Penn State
Round 7, Pick 8 (214) (from Bills through Seahawks): Travis Bond, OG, North Carolina
Round 7, Pick 23 (229) (from Vikings through Patriots and Buccaneers): Everett Dawkins, DT, Florida State

The Minnesota Vikings looked to be concentrating on the defensive side of the ball as they used their first two picks in the draft on Shariff Floyd DT-Florida and Xavier Rhodes CB-Florida St, but threw everyone for a loop with a late first round trade to take Cordarrelle Patterson WR-Tennessee with a pick originally owned by New England.  While both Floyd and Rhodes have big time potential and should help the Vikings defense for years to come, I will focus on the Vikings’ third first round pick Cordarrelle Patterson and his potential fantasy value.  Patterson was a Juco transfer at Cordarrelle PattersonTennessee and exploded on the scene in the SEC.  His electric returns and his run after the catch abilities immediately had his name jumping up draft boards.  As the season went on he showed that his route-running and concentration were concerns.  He would round off routes and not recognize deep safeties on quite a few occasions.  Patterson’s hands were a big knock as he went through the draft process.  He proved to be a body catcher that does not utilize his hands nearly enough.   His agility and speed are downright jaw-dropping, and should make the growing pains worth it for the Vikings.  If he can be coached up on route-running and using his hands to high-point the football, we could have an even more talented version of Torrey Smith on our hands.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Round 2, Pick 20 (52) (from Vikings): Jamie Collins, LB, Southern Miss Round 2, Pick 27 (59): Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall
Round 3, Pick 21 (83) (from Vikings): Ryan Logan, CB, Rutgers
Round 3, Pick 29 (91): Duron Harmon, S, Rutgers
Round 4, Pick 5 (102) (from Lions through Vikings): Josh Boyce, WR, Texas Christian
Round 7, Pick 20 (226) (from Bears through Buccaneers): Michael Buchanan, DE, Illinois
Round 7, Pick 29 (235): Steve Beauharnais, LB, Rutgers

The New England Patriots took a pass rusher in Jamie Collins with their first pick in the second round and followed that up with Aaron Dobson WR-Marshall.  Dobson was a sleeper  favorite of many draft pundits as he has a great size to speed ratio (6’3” 4.55 Forty) and good burst off the line of scrimmage.  He runs routes well and shows good body control when fighting for the ball in the air.  His blocking is above average and should help Steven Ridley and the other Patriots backs break longer runs.  Josh Boyce, the Patriots’ fourth round pick, could be a draft day find, as his play was hampered by all the problems TCU had at the QB position.  Look for Boyce to have fantasy relevance next year.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Round 1, Pick 15 (15): Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Round 3, Pick 13 (75): Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Round 3, Pick 20 (from Bears through Dolphins) (82): John Jenkins, DT, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 11 (144): Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma
Round 6, Pick 15 (183): Rufus Johnson, DE, Tarleton State

The Saints concentrated on the defensive side of the ball as they had a huge need to upgrade the safety position. Their first round pick Kenny Vaccaro should be able to step right in to the Saints’ secondary and make a difference.  Terron Armstead, The Saints’ third round pick, has a lot of upside, but is very green.  He could end up being the third best tackle in this draft, if he develops the right way.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Round 1, Pick 19 (19): Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse
Round 2, Pick 17 (49): Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
Round 3, Pick 19 (81): Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Round 4, Pick 19 (110) (from Chargers through Cardinals): Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse
Round 5, Pick 19 (152): Cooper Taylor, S, Richmond
Round 7, Pick 19 (225): Eric Herman, OG, Ohio
Round 7, Pick 47 (253) (Compensatory Selection): Michael Cox, RB, Massachusetts

The Giants finally drafted an Offensive lineman in the first round to help their aging group up front.  Justin Pugh will be a very good Pro, but probably projects better as a guard or center than outside at tackle.  I have seen his game film and came away impressed.  He moves really well with a good center of gravity.  He uses very good technique to make up for his short arms and less than ideal strength when anchoring against a bull-rush or drop stepping to cut off a speed rusher.  The Giants then used the next two picks to draft on more bodies for their defensive line.  Both, Johnathan Hankins and Demontre Moore, were widely regarded as first round picks leading up to the draft process.  Both fell off first round mock drafts as teams put them under the microscope.  Hankins has a soft physique, but plays with a nice motor and quick first step.  He should provide a good 1 technique tandem with Linval Joseph.  To help the Giants stop the running games of their NFC East rivals.  Moore had a ton of production while at Texas A&M and looked to be the next Von Miller.  Rumors of his immaturity and questions about his work ethic kept him from being a first round pick.  Ryan Nassib, the Giants fourth round pick, could become trade bait if he shows well in the preseason and in relief appearances.  Nassib was rumored to be going in the first or second round, and heavily linked to the Bills.  So getting him in the fourth round was definately good value.

NEW YORK JETS

Round 1, Pick 9 (9): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Round 1, Pick 13 (13) (from Buccaneers): Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Round 2, Pick 7 (39): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Round 3, Pick 10 (72): Brian Winters, OT, Kent State
Round 5, Pick 8 (141): Oday Aboushi, OT, Virginia
Round 6, Pick 10 (178): William Campbell, DT, Michigan
Round 7, Pick 9 (215): Tommy Bohanon, FB, Wake Forest

The NY Jets drafted two very good defensive players in the first round, but made their biggest splash by taking Geno Smith in the second round.  Geno Smith looked to be a lock first rounder when he was carving up the Big 12 Geno Smithwith both his arm and his legs, but something happened on the way to the draft.  Teams were turned off by his diva attitude and his lack of pro style experience.  Rumors were constantly coming out that he “ wasn’t a leader”or “he wasn’t a classroom guy”. Most of the time these rumors are just smoke screens trying to drive a prospects draft stock down, but this time they were right.   I believe he has a lot of talent, and can be an excellent NFL QB with plenty of fantasy potential.  He showed a strong enough arm, and very good touch while at West Virginia, but primarily played out of the shotgun and didn’t drop back at all.  He did show excellent anticipation and coverage reads when dissecting an opponents defense, which bodes well for the next level.  His fantasy potential takes a dive when you look at what the Jets have, as far as talent, on offense.  The cupboard is pretty bare and he would be better off holding a clipboard until they restock.  He could be a nice QB2 next year, but this should definately be a wait and see.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Round 1, Pick 12 (12) (from Dolphins): D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
Round 2, Pick 10 (42) (from Dolphins): Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Round 3, Pick 4 (66): Sio Moore, LB, Connecticut
Round 4, Pick 15 (112): Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Round 6, Pick 4 (172): Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado
Round 6, Pick 13 (181) (from Buccaneers): Latavius Murray, RB, Central Florida
Round 6, Pick 16 (184) (from Rams through Texans): Mychal Rivera, TE, Tennessee
Round 6, Pick 37 (205) (Compensatory Selection): Stacy McGee, DT, Oklahoma
Round 7, Pick 3 (209): Brice Butler, WR, San Diego State
Round 7, Pick 27 (233) (from Texans): David Bass, DE, Missouri Western

The Oakland Raiders selected a very good cover corner in D.J. Hayden with their first round pick.  Then took a very raw offensive tackle in Menelik Watson with their second round pick.  Sio Moore, the Raiders’ third round pick, will be a very good pro right away.  He can play all three linebacker positions and will be a contributor on special teams.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Round 1, Pick 4 (4): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Round 2, Pick 3 (35): Zach Ertz, TE Stanford
Round 3, Pick 5 (67): Bennie Logan, DT, Louisiana State
Round 4, Pick 1 (98) (from Jaguars): Matt Barkley, QB, Southern California
Round 5, Pick 3 (136): Earl Wolff, SS, N.C. State
Round 7, Pick 6 (212) (from Browns): Joe Kruger, DE, Utah
Round 7, Pick 12 (218) (from Buccaneers): Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State
Round 7, Pick 33 (239) (Compensatory Selection): David King, DE, Oklahoma

The Philadelphia Eagles selected tackle Lane Johnson from Oklahoma in the first round of this year’s draft. Lane Johnson is relatively new to the position of tackle and will benefit from playing along side Jason Peters and Todd Herremans.   Chip Kelly will find he has a lot to work with if Jason Peters comes back healthy from a torn Achilles.  With Peters, Todd Herremans(also recovering from a major injury) bumping inside to guard and Lane Jonson at right tackle the Eagles have the makings of a dominant line.    The Eagles drafted Zach Ertz with their second round pick.  Ertz will be a high end TE2 by the end of the year and could be a low end TE1 if Brent Celek gets injured.  Matt Barkley will be a nice trade chip for the Eagles if his shoulder can regain its former strength, and he shows well in the preseason.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Round 1, Pick 17 (17): Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia
Round 2, Pick 16 (48): Le’Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State
Round 3, Pick 17 (79): Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
Round 4, Pick 14 (111) (from Dolphins through Browns): Shamarko Thomas, SS, Syracuse
Round 4, Pick 18 (115): Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Round 5, Pick 17 (150): Terry Hawthorne, CB, Illinois
Round 6, Pick 18 (186): Justin Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Round 6, Pick 38 (206) (Compensatory Selection): Vince Williams, LB, Florida State
Round 7, Pick 17 (223): Nick Williams, DT, Samford

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a type.  Better or worse they are often the easiest team to predict during a draft and this year was no different.  Jarvis Jones, the Steelers’ first round pick, always looked like he would be headed to the Steel City and he should fit in perfectly.  He has a great motor and processes polished pass-rushing moves.  He will more than fill the void left by James Harrison’s departure.  Le’Veon Bell may remind some, at first glance, of Jerome Bettis, but he is more of stand straight up runner than head down battering ram.  He has good feet and vision and is instantly the best option at RB for the Steelers.  I didn’t love the direction the Steelers took in the running game last year under Todd Haley, but Bell may be the answer Haley was looking for.  Bell will definitely be a solid RB2 by week three in most fantasy leagues.  Markus Wheaton is a very nice receiver who will play early and often if he picks up the offense quickly.  If an injury hits the receiving corps he could be a deeper league find.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Round 1, Pick 11 (11): D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Round 2, Pick 6 (38) (from Cardinals): Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame
Round 3, Pick 14 (76): Keenan Allen, WR, California
Round 5, Pick 12 (145): Steve Williams, CB, California
Round 6, Pick 11 (179): Tourek Williams, DE, Florida International
Round 7, Pick 15 (221): Brad Sorensen, QB, Southern Utah

The San Diego “Super” Chargers addressed a big need with their first round pick by selecting D.J. Fluker.  Fluker was a battering ram at the University of Alabama paving the way for Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson while also doing a nice job of keeping his quarterback clean.  He suffers against speed rushers and gets over his toes a little too often, but should make Ryan Mathews’ owners very happy as he caves in his side of the line on running plays.   The Chargers drafted Keenan Allen WR-CAL in the third round and hope he can recover from a knee injury to show the burst and route running he showed on game film.  Fluker’s addition will make many fantasy GMs reconsider the oft-injured Ryan Mathews as a low end RB1.  I know I might gamble on him again.  Did I just say that?!!

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Round 1, Pick 18 (18): Eric Reid, S, Louisiana State
Round 2, Pick 8 (40) (from Titans): Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
Round 2, Pick 23 (55) (from Packers): Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
Round 3, Pick 26 (88) (from Packers): Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
Round 4, Pick 31 (128): Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
Round 4, Pick 34 (131) (Compensatory Selection): Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
Round 5, Pick 24 (157) (from Colts): Quinton Dial, DE, Alabama
Round 6, Pick 12 (180) (from Dolphins): Nick Moody, LB, Florida State
Round 7, Pick 31 (237): B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida
Round 7, Pick 40 (246) (Compensatory Selection): Carter Bykowski, OT, Iowa State
Round 7, Pick 46 (252) (Compensatory Selection): Marcus Cooper, CB, Rutgers

The 49ers concentrated on defense early in the draft, but found two future fantasy contributors in the fourth round when they selected Quinton Patton WR-La Tech and Marcus Lattimore RB-South Carolina.  Patton is a good route runner who could push for slot catches and be a nice deeper league fill in if the 49ers suffer some injuries.  Marcus Lattimore was going to be the next Adrian Peterson before multiple knee injuries derailed him at South Carolina.  If he is able to make a full recovery he could be the heir to Frank Gore’s featured back throne.  Personally, I will take a flier on Lattimore as a keeper for next season, but don’t expect anything this year.

Marcus Lattimore

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Round 2, Pick 30 (62) (from Ravens): Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
Round 3, Pick 25 (87): Jordan Hill, DT, Penn State
Round 4, Pick 26 (123): Chris Harper, WR, Kansas State
Round 5, Pick 4 (137) (from Lions): Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
Round 5, Pick 5 (138) (from Raiders): Tharold Simon, CB, Louisiana State
Round 5, Pick 25 (158): Luke Wilson, TE, Rice
Round 6, Pick 26 (194): Spencer Ware, RB, Louisiana State
Round 7, Pick 14 (220) (from Saints): Ryan Seymour, OG, Vanderbilt
Round 7, Pick 25 (231): Ty Powell, DE, Harding
Round 7, Pick 35 (241) (Compensatory Selection): Jared Smith, DT, New Hampshire
Round 7, Pick 36 (242) (Compensatory Selection): Michael Bowie, OT, NE Oklahoma State

The Seattle Seahawks have a roster full of talent and were able to draft players that fit into their system, rather than reach for need.  Christine Michael was easily one of the most talented backs in this draft, but slid on injury and character concerns.  If he can stay healthy he could leapfrog Robert Turbin on the depth chart and be the beneficiary of an injury to Marshawn Lynch.  Luke Wilson TE-Rice could be nice player in this offense and I expect him to challenge Zach Miller for starting tight-end duties by next year.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Round 1, Pick 8 (8) (from Bills): Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
Round 1, Pick 30 (30) (from Falcons): Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
Round 3, Pick 9 (71): (from Bills): T.J. McDonald, FS, Southern California
Round 3, Pick 30 (92) (from Falcons): Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia
Round 4, Pick 16 (113): Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
Round 5, Pick 16 (149): Brandon McGee, CB, Miami
Round 5, Pick 27 (160) (from Texans): Zac Stacy, RB Vanderbilt

The St. Louis Rams selected the most explosive weapon in this year’s draft when they took Tavon Austin with the eighth overall pick.  Austin is quick in and out of cuts and shows breakaway speed whenever he gets in the open-field.  Depending on how the Rams choose to use him this year, he could very well be a high upside WR2 in most fantasy league formats.  The Rams selected Stedman Bailey WR-West Virginia in the third round and he will likely feature as the first sub in 4WR sets.  He is a very nice addition to a Rams’ passing attack that has seen a complete offseason overhaul.

Tavon Austin

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Round 2, Pick 11 (43): Johnathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
Round 3, Pick 11 (73): Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State
Round 4, Pick 3 (100) (from Raiders): Akeem Spence, DT, Illinois
Round 4, Pick 29 (126) (from Patriots): William Gholston, DE, Michigan State
Round 5, Pick 14 (147): Steven Means, DE, Buffalo
Round 6, Pick 21 (189) (from Vikings): Mike James, RB, Miami

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Mike Glennon in the second round to push Josh Freeman.  If Freeman doesn’t step up his game expect Glennon to be throwing the ball downfield to Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams.  Freeman has the keys to a Cadillac, with the talent on this Buccaneers’offense, but he’s been running it like an old Chevy beater.  I put Freeman in the same boat as Jake Locker.  It’s time sink or swim fellas.  Just don’t let them sink your championship dreams.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Round 1, Pick 10 (10): Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
Round 2, Pick 2 (34) (from Chiefs through 49ers): Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
Round 3, Pick 8 (70): Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut
Round 3, Pick 35 (97) (Compensatory Selection): Zaviar Gooden, LB, Missouri
Round 4, Pick 10 (107): Brian Schwenke, C, California
Round 5, Pick 9 (142): Lavar Edwards, DE, Louisiana State
Round 6, Pick 34 (202) (Compensatory Selection): Khalid Wooten, CB, Nevada
Round 7, Pick 42 (248) (Compensatory Selection): Daimion Stafford, SS, Nebraska

The Tennessee Titans solidified their interior offensive line in this year’s draft when they selected Chance Warmack OG-Alabama in the first round and Brian Schwenke C-Cal with their fourth round selection.  Chris Johnson should have no excuses for not finding any running room with these two added to the offensive line.  The draft pick of Justin Hunter WR-Tennessee seems like an indictment of someone in the Titan’s current receiving corps.  Is he the replacement for Kenny Britt?  Is Nate Washington headed out the door?  Are the Titans down on last year’s draft pick, Kendall Wright?   Expect Washington to be cut post June 1st.  Jake Locker is the one who will really have no place to hide, if he doesn’t make a big leap forward this year.  Locker was a late round fantasy guru favorite heading into last season, but was most likely the first QB put on the waiver wire.  His accuracy is a big question mark, but his athleticism will keep giving him chances.  If he doesn’t make strides this year expect a regime change and a new QB in town.

Chance Warmack

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Round 2, Pick 19 (51): David Amerson, CB, N.C. State
Round 3, Pick 23 (85): Jordan Reed, TE, Florida
Round 4, Pick 22 (119): Philip Thomas, SS, Fresno State
Round 5, Pick 21 (154): Chris Thompson, RB, Florida State
Round 5, Pick 29 (162) (from Patriots): Brandon Jenkins, DE, Florida State
Round 6, Pick 23 (191): Bacarri Rambo, SS, Georgia
Round 7, Pick 22 (228): Jawan Jamison, RB, Rutgers

The Washington Redskins didn’t have a pick until the second round, and used it on David Amerson CB-NC State.  Amerson was projected as a top ten talent heading into this college football season, but he played his way out of the first round.  He has all the measurable and ball skills to make him the top corner in the draft, but was continually beat deep this year on double moves.  His technique was poor and he had become greedy for interceptions after leading the country the year before.  Opposing offenses saw the blood in the water and continually made him look bad.  If he works on his fundamentals there is no reason he can’t be the best corner from this draft.  Jordan Reed TE-Florida will be a nice complimentary piece, but shouldn’t crack fantasy rosters.  Running backs Chris Thompson and Jawan Jamison will push Roy Helu and Evan Royster for roster spots, while contributing very little in fantasy value.

 

 

Fantasy Football 2012 Post Season Awards

After a long and grueling season, it is now time for Coach Dennis to hand out his awards for unique and completely fabricated categories.

The Least Sexy Pick of the Year 

Marshawn Lynch

Winner: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA)

On draft day you would probably heard a lot of people say good pick as you put Marshawn’s name on the board.  Not great, but good is the moral of this story.  No one was super excited about drafting Lynch with an unknown commodity starting at QB in 2012.  The smart GMs saw the late season matchups and knew the offense would run on Marshawn slipping into “Beast Mode” if the Seahawks were to reach their potential.  Marshawn put up ten 100 yard rushing days and 12 total touchdowns during the season.  His biggest games came at the most important times for fantasy GMs.  Weeks 13 through 16 Lynch put up huge numbers carrying GMs into the playoffs, and onto the winners stand.  Lynch averaged 109.75 yards rushing and 1.75 touchdowns during the most critical weeks of the year, earning him a Post Season award from yours truly, and a place in the hearts of Fantasy GMs around the country.

The Dennis Green “They are what we thought they were!” Award

Dennis Green

Winner: Michael Turner (RB-ATL)

The entire world was ready for Michael Turner to fall off the list of must start running backs, and he did not disappoint.  The talking heads on TV and even the guy at your draft that shows up with a draft guide printed in April all knew to stay away from this aging former fantasy stud.  His decline in production was a perfect storm of factors for the Atlanta Falcons.  The team was finally full of healthy weapons all over the field, and was moving more to a pass first offense, which did not bode well for the old war horse.  The continued maturation of Jacquizz Rogers was just another nail into the coffin.  While Turner did produce 11 combined touchdowns, he only totaled 800 yards rushing while only topping 20 carries once.

Same Team, Same Stats, Different Guy

Winner: Steven Ridley (RB-NE)

Stevan Ridley’s 1,263 rushing yards were well beyond Benjarvis Green-Ellis’s last few seasons in New England, but the 12 touchdowns was exactly what you could count on from the law-firm in his final two years in New England.  Ridley was a steal as a top notch Running Back 2 in most leagues as he topped 100 yards four times and was the consistent goal line back piling up 12 touchdowns (when he was not in Belichek’s doghouse for fumbles).  While he may not be Adrian Peterson, he is definitely the most talented back to feature for the Patriots since Corey Dillon.

Different Team, Same Stats, Same Guy

Peyton Manning BroncosPeyton Manning Colts

Winner: Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)

Peyton Manning was a steal in most drafts.  He would have easily been the fourth or fifth quarterback taken if not for his career-threatening injury coupled with an address change to Denver.  Manning was snapped up in the middle rounds in most drafts and threw 37 touchdowns, placing him third in the league while also eclipsing his totals during his previous two healthy years (2009-2010).  He also threw for over 4,600 yards without breaking a sweat and seemingly getting better as the season progressed.  Manning single-handedly made Demaryious Thomas and Eric Decker a dynamic receiving duo.  Having these receivers and a solid running game, Manning’s renaissance is not a one-year wonder and he should return to the top of draft boards in 2013.

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Darren McFadden

Winner: Darren McFadden (RB-OAK)

While fantasy owners constantly salivate over Darren McFadden’s potential and raw skills, he has proven again and again that he cannot hold up over the course of a season.  This year proved no different as he missed four games due to constant foot and ankle injuries.  Even when he was in the lineup, he had trouble adapting to a new zone read scheme.  McFadden registered 700 yards rushing and just three touchdowns after being a late first or early second round pick.  Two of his three 100 yard rushing days were against the Chiefs – enough said.  I know there are a lot of you reading this cringing like a girlfriend constantly scorned, but I am willing to bet that you will probably draft him again next year based on potential.

Worst Deep Round Sleeper

Winner: Titus Young (WR-DET)

No matter where you looked, everyone and their mother were touting Lions wide receiver Titus Young, the second-year pro out of Boise State.  I was almost swept up into the madness until I realized that he had more personal fouls during his rookie season than the entire New York Giants defense.  Not exactly the calm, cool under pressure young receiver I wanted for my team, to say the least.  With Calvin Johnson constantly seeing double coverage, Young was supposed to reap the rewards.  Young was expected to almost double his 2011 stats of 600 yards and 6 touchdowns, but instead he cut that in half as he regressed into a banished draft bust.  Young is the first receiver I have ever seen who purposely lined up in the wrong position, as well as ran the wrong routes in protest of how he was being used in the Lions’ offense.  I believe everyone deserves a second chance, but I think his will come on the waiver wire both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues.

Most Valuable Surgeon

Winner: Dr. James Andrews

Dr. James Andrews

Dr. Andrews once again worked his magic as Adrian Peterson came back from a torn MCL and ACL to come within 9 yards of breaking the all-time single season rushing record.  Peterson was only held in check by his own coaching staff as he was eased back into his workhorse role.  He was a man amongst boys from Week 7 through Week 17 as he averaged 159.8 yards rushing and just over a touchdown per game.  Peterson was nothing short of phenomenal as he carried many fantasy owners to the Promised Land.

(Honorable Mentions must go out to the surgeons for Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning as they returned to their old selves sooner than anyone could have anticipated.)

The Art of The Deal

With the final few weeks of the Fantasy Football regular season upon us, most GM’s are scrambling to optimize their rosters for that all important playoff push.  While some are scouring the waiver wire in the hopes that Cecil Shorts is this year’s Victor Cruz, others are doing their homework trying to make the perfect deadline trade.  After realizing that Sidney Rice and Jeremy Maclin aren’t the guys to bring the trophy home, you can fall back on my trade guidelines to help you pluck that perfect piece off of someone else’s roster.

Classic Blunders

1. Don’t put available players on your message boards.  You might as well tell your entire league you hate these guys and are willing to be insulted with horrible trade offers.  It gives the impression that your available players have clearance tags on them.  This turns off some GM’s based on the pure fact that these guys must be tainted, and it attracts the vultures that smell a lop-sided deal.  If you put your third running back up on a message board, I guarantee you will be offered someone’s fourth or fifth receiver.  I know we are all busy, but laziness is never rewarded, nor should it be.

2. Don’t put your needs on a message boards.  Again, you are just asking for your buddies to try and take advantage of you.  I really hated when some sites started utilizing needs and available player categories.  You would inevitably only see the guys who were about to be put on the waiver wire put up.

3. Don’t offer a trade and renege.  This happens quite frequently with lazy GM’s.  They offer a deal without looking at the bye weeks and playoff matchups, and when they receive a “yes” they pull out.  You are straining a relationship that you will need for years to come, and in some cases, a friendship.  Before you put out an offer, either through email, text, or verbally, be prepared to follow through.

4. Don’t send out mass emails with available players and needs.  While this might sound redundant, it is actually very different from the message boards.  People occasionally check the message boards in their league, but emails are seen instantly in most cases.   The message boards might get you two or three bad offers whereas mass emails will have your inbox flooded with bad offers to sift through.

5. Don’t let yourself get trapped by bye weeks and fragile players.  If you are banking on guys riding the eternally questionable tag, be prepared to get burned.  When you draft multiple players with the same bye week and don’t plan ahead, you are practically begging for someone to throw you a terrible trade offer.  This week we have Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw all on byes.  If you had two of these guys as your starters you are looking at backup running backs or terrible trade offers to try and win a very important Week 11.  If I am 5-5 right now, I might take a hit to try and get in the tournament. How big of a hit is all in the negotiation.   I can see things like a Lynch for Ridley deal being completed by desperate owners in some leagues.

Do the Work

There is nothing more satisfying than winning a league thanks mostly to your in-season moves.  Sure, some GM’s get lucky drafting a team that goes injury or suspension-free en route to a championship.  But more likely than not, the guys who are constantly vying for the top spot are making key pickups and trades at critical points in the year.  There is no more critical time then the weeks leading up to the playoffs.

Know your strengths and weaknesses.  Are you four-deep at running back but have to rub two sticks together to get a spark from your receivers?  Has your tight end been M.I.A. since Week 2?  Are your Defense and Kicker matchups ideal for the playoffs?

Where are you losing key points week to week?  Are you constantly starting the wrong receiver?  Has your lineup been on autopilot when it needed a hands-on driver?

Know your opponents’ weaknesses and strengths.  Who stockpiled receivers or running backs?  Who has injury issues?  Who has a bye week dilemma?  Who will take Eli Manning off my hands because he or she is still riding high from last season’s Super Bowl win?

Collect information.  Every casual conversation should be an opportunity to gauge your opponent’s feelings about their team.  Sometimes a simple mope up to the board on draft day will let you know a player is available.  I especially love when GMs tell you they love your pick, or they really wanted that guy.  If they wanted him on draft day, he might just be your buyer in Week 11.

Play to your Audience

Every trade is a delicate dance that needs to be approached in a personal way.  Here are some characters that are always fun to deal with.

The Costanza.

CostanzaThis GM is the type of person that thinks all strippers and waitresses are into them.  If you stroke their ego a little you might just be able to get what you want.  Praise them for their draft day foresight and pinpoint in-season pickups.  After some heavy petting they might want to share their wealth with your struggling team.

Mr. Shellshocked.

This GM has been taken advantage of and is very leery of anyone who is interested in their players.  A little honesty will go a long way with this GM.  Tell them who you are after and why.  Always have a second target on their team in mind as they will cling to that first bit of information as the bible truth.  They tend to make fair counteroffers when almost all the cards are on the table.

Mr. Vegas.

This GM is all about the action.  They cannot stand pat for a whole season, let alone week to week.  Always let them know there is a trade in the works.  They might be your pawn in making a deal possible for you.  You may be competing with another team to trade for Jamal Charles who has some favorable playoff matchup.  So you happen to let Mr. Vegas know that your competitor is trying to trade for a running back.  They will instantly try to insert themselves in the trade activities.  You might be able to distract your competitor long enough to pull off your trade.

Puzzle Pieces

The best trades are the ones that make both teams just a little bit better.  Your rosters are like puzzles that needPuzzle pieces each other to finally see the picture.  Sometimes on draft day you might not fit, but with free agent pickups and early season trades you evolve into perfect dance partners.  This is why you should constantly be looking at your opponent’s rosters, waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike.

Recommended Trade Targets

QB –  If you don’t have one by now you are most likely out of luck.  The waiver wire might be your lifeline if Carson Palmer or Josh Freeman is still available.

RB – Jamaal Charles, Willis McGahee, Stevan Ridley (for his next few matchups), and Shonn Greene to a lesser extent.

WR – For a position that was as deep as I could remember it being in years, it has thinned out considerably through injury and ineffectiveness. Try and grab Denarius Moore, Marques Colston, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson and Miles Austin.

TE – Antonio Gates, Jermaine Gresham, and Greg Olsen.  You might be able to get Olsen as a throw in to tip the scales in your favor.

 

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