Matt Carpenter – The Fantasy Sports Coach

FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft
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FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft

Fantasy Baseball

FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft

This year I made the choice to join the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and I couldn’t be happier. Not only do I get to belong to a great group that supports the industry’s best and brightest, but I get to participate in leagues with fellow writers.

This season I was asked to join the latest FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft (The Nado DiFino Award) and I thought that was a great chance to see where my rankings stacked up before my main money leagues drafted over the next two weekends.

For Reference FSWA Leagues Start-

CC,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P

and Scoring is

Runs,RBIs,SBs,OB%,Slugging% – Ks,ERA,WHIP,QS,Saves

When I found out I had the fourth pick in the draft I was praying that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me becuase he fills up all five offensive categories and plays a position that will end up being depleted with 12 teams having to start 5 Out Fielders. Well in a draft full of fantasy writers that didn’t happen. Paul Goldschmidt was there for me to take him, but in a league where you start 9 Pitchers every week I couldn’t pass up on the clear number one, tier to himself, Clayton Kershaw. That was the first of many slightly controversial picks I made in this draft.

COACH ESSER DENNIS
4	Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP Over Goldschmidt was tough, but I’m happy
21	Jose Bautista, Tor OF Needed a high upside Outfielder and Bautista can top four categories if healthy
28	Justin Verlander, Det SP This was a personal preference. I have him rated 3rd-SP most don’t
45	Joe Mauer, Min C 2-Catcher League Mauer is huge in OB% and Runs
52	Matt Kemp, LAD OF -Big gamble on health here. Wouldn’t have got him in the next round
69	Matt Carpenter, StL 2B -Value pick here as he is plus in Runs,OB% and decent in Slugging%
76	Josh Donaldson, Oak 3B -Another value pick, Wanted to wait and go with a sleeper later, but not bad.
93	Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP -The last of the upper tier Closers and now with Chapman hurt its good value
100	Jose Abreu, CWS 1B -needed some upside power at 1B and love to gamble on Abreu
117	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP -Iwakuma has a lot of upside as long as that finger is ready soon
124	Danny Salazar, Cle SP -Salazar is going to break out this year and reached a little here
141	Austin Jackson, Det OF -Jackson was always a target and his ESPN ADP kept him off screen
148	Jason Castro, Hou C -Castro was the last offensive Catcher that could be plus in Slugging%
165	Jason Grilli, Pit RP -Steady closer who has a decent WHIP as well
172	Brad Miller, Sea SS -big time target for me and it was tough to lay off Castro and Simmons as they fell
189	Khris Davis, Mil OF -Fourth Outfielder with power upside-a bit of a gamble
196	Lance Lynn, StL SP -Lynn is nice starter to have in this format with his K totals
213	Matt Garza, Mil SP -Auto picked Garza when Adam Eaton was in my que but had been sniped-still stings
220	Nate Jones, CWS RP -The last decent upside closer left.
237	Taijuan Walker, Sea SP – Walker here was a round early based on ADP, but the shoulder sounds good
244	David Freese, LAA 3B – Batting fourth against Lefties and if healthy not a bad Corner Infielder
261	Oswaldo Arcia, Min OF – One of my favorite late round power sources
268	Michael Brantley, Cle OF -Solid outfielder with room for improvement-pure depth
285	Neil Walker, Pit 2B – Could be a nice value pick for MI depth-if not, to the wire I go
292	Devin Mesoraco, Cin C -Vargas knee issues had me looking for a 3rd Catcher when normally I wouldn’t
309	Todd Frazier, Cin 3B – Too much potential this late in the draft. RBIs in a pinch
316	Erik Johnson, CWS SP – Late round sleeper or bust. I like what I saw last year and worth a gamble
333	Junior Lake, ChC OF – Needed Steals and he could get 20 this year while putting up decent Slugging%

As you can tell my team lacks stolen bases and I will have to look to make a trade early on or raid the waiver wire for this year’s Nate McLouth. Let me know what you think and who you are targeting in your fantasy baseball drafts.

Evan Longoria Injured

Well another season and another nagging injury for Evan Longoria. This time it’s plantar factitious that has felled the power hitting third baseman of the Tampa Bay Rays. If you drafted Longoria you probably had a back up plan in mind all along, but if you didn’t don’t go looking for any rusty knives just yet, I promise we can get through this.

Where do we start?

First let’s look at our own bench.

Do we have any guys that picked up 3B eligibility while we weren’t looking?

Edwin Encarnacion recently became 3B eligible in Yahoo leagues and you may have never noticed. If so lucky you, plug him in over there and quickly go grab Adam Lind or Eric Hosmer and you’re set for a few weeks.

How about Matt Carpenter? Has he been scoring you runs at 2B and keeping guys that are starting to heat up on the bench? Well slide him over to 3B and plug in the rejuvenated Rickie Weeks and roll with it for a while.

If you’re like me and traded away your insurance policy already, then we are going to need to look at the waiver wire.

1) Anthony Rendon- The kid has played like top draft pick he is after his second call up to the bigs and is still only owned in 37% of Yahoo Leagues. His 2B eligibility may pay dividends down the line as you can move him around your infield.

2) Jose Iglesias- For a player that was supposed to be all glove and no bat he sure as hell looks to be the real deal. His hits aren’t exactly laser show quality, but you can get a nice batting average bump while he’s hot. It won’t last forever, but it may help for a few weeks.

3) Chris Johnson- Another guy that will really only help with one category as he is still hitting over .320. His power numbers won’t help much, but if the Braves lineup starts hitting a little more he could get a nice bump.

4-5) Trevor Plouffe and Mike Moustakas- Plouffe and Moustakas were late round guys that were looking to take the next step towards big time major leaguer this year. Plouffe has been injured and has been in and out of the line-up, but when he has been available he looks to have a lot of fantasy upside. His swing has a lot of power potential and if the middle of the Twins lineup continues to hit he could pick up nice RBI numbers. Moustakas has been a head ache most of the year and has only recently looked to be making strides. His average has creeped up above the .210 mark and he has been driving the ball better. He finally homered yesterday after not doing so in forever. His runs and RBI’s have been missing though because of the struggles of everyone else in the Royals line-up. He could have a huge second half and be a nice utility player for you when Longoria recovers.

6) Some names coming off the DL soon that could be nice backups to Longoria the rest of the year are Jedd Gyorko and Brett Lawrie. Gyorko has shown he is major league ready before injuring his groin and is valuable with his 2B-3B eligibility. Lawrie has been injury plagued as well as ineffective to start the year, and some confidence in the minors may be just what the doctor ordered.

For deeper leagues I would look to Alberto Callaspo and Matt Dominguez to fill in for a short time. Maybe even Lonnie Chisenhall if he gets the AB’s.

Don’t Set It and Forget It

Fantasy baseball is not a “set it and forget it” endeavor. You don’t draft a team and send it out into the world without having to constantly tinker with it. You may have three different players play second base for you in any given month while also having a different frontline starter based on that particular week’s matchups. If we listed all the closers that will inevitably be jumping in and out of our rosters we could be here all day.

Setting your lineup is a lot like playing the stock market. You can only ignore the trends for so long until you miss the boat. Whether it be buying, selling, dropping or picking up players, you have to look at all the available information in a timely manner. Being aware of the vital statistics can make a stock or a free agent a must buy or a player on your roster an instant drop.

Sometimes a player is just getting extremely lucky and his statistics are heading for a correction. I am trying to avoid stepping into these bear-traps, but it can be difficult to differentiate between luck and player turning a corner. You may get burned by not checking his BAPIP (batting average on balls in play) or his FB/GB statistics. Luckily, there are so many resources for today’s fantasy GM’s that weren’t available just a few years ago. I can go to a multitude of sites to see all the vital statistics and more while even the free apps from sites like Yahoo break down the basic statistics over time periods. I can notice a player is hot while watching a series on TV, check my phone and see he is hitting .350 this month and then go to any site to see if his power is coming as well.

Too many GM’s treat their lineups like they are mutual funds or pensions. They buy in and either through laziness or ineptitude let them twist in the wind. While they spend their nights catching up on Breaking Bad and old reruns of South Park (Editor’s Note: there is nothing wrong with watching either of these shows), their lineups go through ups and downs not seen since Enron. You offer them a trade and they literally have to check the site to see who is on their roster.

I, on the other hand, tend to be overly attentive, almost to the detriment of my free time (hmmm, maybe that is why I’m only on Season 2 of Breaking Bad). I tend to tinker constantly as I check my lineups key statistics and try and maximize every week in my head to head league. I read every article possible on would-be call-ups so that I can try to solve some of my team’s issues without trying to trade. If I am lagging early in the week in stolen bases I will put Starling Marte or Brett Gardner into my lineup. If I am behind in runs scored, then Matt Carpenter will start at almost any position. Power is tougher to find coming off the bench, but I may have just recently found a few gems.

The fact that my league is position specific for outfield has been a real challenge. Right field has been considerably shallow and I have been forced to play Carpenter or Adrian Gonzalez there while I have Corey Hart stashed on the DL. If I played Gonzalez in RF, then I suffer at first base, and vice-versa. Then along came a Cuban defector named Yasiel Puig. You may have heard of him. He has exploded on the scene and solidified my line-up with his power and speed.

I know what you’re saying – hold your horses buddy. It’s okay to get excited, but let’s not pretend he’s the second coming. But what if he is the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? It would be like adding a top 10 pick in the middle of the season for nothing. How can you not get over-excited? I know I am having trouble tempering my excitement and evaluating his current worth.

He could be a blip on the screen of my season or he could be guy to put me over the top. We will all have to wait and see. Many of my colleagues have been saying to sell high as we have all seen players do this before only to crash back down to earth, or worse, to the minors. I even polled a few fantasy gurus to see what Puig was being traded for and names like Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton were mentioned. I would jump at the chance to acquire any of those guys, but that is not what is being offered to me at this point. On the other hand, I am playing the wait and see game. I am doing the old “I came with nothing and I’ll leave with nothing if God will’s it.” I just don’t know if I can live with trading him for a marginal player if he goes on to play at even half of what he is currently showing.

There is a ton of risk with what I am doing as the Dodgers looked to have a full outfield with Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier when the year began. Crawford and Kemp are currently on the DL, and Ethier has struggled for most of the season including getting benched before Puig was called up. I am banking on Puig making it impossible to send him back down with his play on the field. He was signed to a huge free agent contract so he is not one of these rookies whose service time is an issue and he has been setting records with every base hit. He is electrifying a fan base that needed to wake up and probably hasn’t been this excited about a player since Fernandomania was running wild 30 years ago. He also has gone from batting leadoff to batting fourth after only a week. He has already arguably shown more potential in one week in the big leagues then Ethier has in seven years with the Dodgers.

Puig is not the only streaking player who has joined my team recently. Adam Lind’s current form couldn’t be ignored as he hit over .400 over the last month and is even forcing his way into the lineup against lefties. When the Blue Jays were forced to give up the DH in National League parks they decided to play Edwin Encarnacion at third base so that they could play Lind at first base to keep his hot bat in the lineup. I know he probably won’t stay hot for long, but if I can get a productive month out of him then I am ahead of the game. If there was a timeline for my lineup at first base it would read Gonzalez-Carpenter-Loney-and now Lind. It might not be as easy as drafting Prince Fielder and trotting him out week after week, but if I end up winning the title it will be that much sweeter with all the hard work I put in.

This article originally was featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball. I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about. I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised. Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year. My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria. Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte. My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy. But my closers have been a mixed bag. Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame. I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire. In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester. I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft. Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base. I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two. I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since. That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft. I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes. I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft. Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot. He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed). I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Being honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses. Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results. Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression. I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded. Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Weeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day. Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps. I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game. I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire. I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman. After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out. Right? Right???