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Episode 23: Fantasy Football Zach Law

Episode 23: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Auction Strategy and the Tennessee Titans

Featuring: Zach Law (@Zach_Law) Senior Thought Leader FantasyZach LawSports.org

About My Guest:  Zach Law is the Senior Thought Leader (translation: only writer) for Fantasysports.org, a site dedicated to covering the entire fantasy industry which to Zach means “fantasy football only”. He’s also written two books based on his Ask Your Fantasy Football Expert series called “There Is No Off Season” and “There Still Is No Offseason”. He lives in Atlanta with his wife and two cats. 

 

Episode Summary:  Zach and I discuss a recent Fantasy Football auction we participated in and commiserate over the failings of the New York giants and Zach’s beloved Titans.  (Zach does give me shit for complaining about a team that has won two Super Bowls since 2007.

Episode Rundown:

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

ThaThere is no off seasonnk Yous For Episode 023:  I want to thank Zach for coming on the podcast and making fun of me for complaining about the New York Giants.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Here’s Zach’s interview with one of my former guests on the podcast, Jonathan Vandersluis (Owner/Writer of Top Team Fantasy) 

 

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David Wilson: I Just Can’t Quit You

Last night I had the pleasure of joining my old Co-host from Trick Plays, Micah James (The FFMagicman), on his new show on FFToolBox Radio.  I had a blast with my old running mate, but one discussion really stuck in my craw all night

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An audience member asked us to discuss the New York Giants’ roster and their fantasy prospects for 2014.  I gave my best assessment of what I think the Giants have to offer for fantasy football players, but when it came to discussing David Wilson I was really at a loss. In reality I am not expecting anything from Wilson in fantasy football this season.  I desperately hope I’m wrong and that he grows as a football player exponentially this summer, but the reality is there isn’t much time for him to heal physically (fused neck) and make up for all the short comings in his game. (Pass-blocking, fumbling, and timing as a runner) I have to admit that I was a huge supporter of David Wilson last off season.  His athleticism is the stuff that fantasy dreams are made of.

If the measurables weren’t enough to keep your interest then the news that his direct competition for touches in the Giants backfield last season, Andre Brown, breaking his leg in the preseason may have swayed you to reconsider.  These factors plus the fact that I was covering the Giants for BigBlueView.com and got to see David Wilson in person at the Giants’ training camp had me hook-line-and sinker. I watched as he exploded all over the field.  He was returning kicks, flying through the line of scrimmage on runs and making leaping one-handed grabs in the passing game. (yes Eli was a little inaccurate even in the preseason)  If I could have pawned my wife’s wedding ring to buy more shares in David Wilson I may have done it.

The big issue ended up being that I was too close to the situation.  I was right up in there, drinking the cool-aid and writing it for everyone to see.  If I had just taken a step back I may have not been so bullish on the situation. Here’s the reason why: The Giants’s offensive line in the preseason showed all the signs of an aging unit that could fall off the cliff at any moment.  Center David Baas had been riddled with injuries since he became a Giant.  Former-All-Pro Guard Chris Snee was playing on a hip that was operated on and compensating with the other one that was just as injured.  David Diehl was a warrior for the Giants in the late 2000’s, but his best games were clearly behind him and he was still going to be a big contributor.

The only true hope was a rookie tackle that had short arms and was more of a technician than a mauler when it came to the running game.  The depth behind the aging lineman was where the Giants really faltered.  They didn’t have anyone that could actually come in and get the job done.  They had instead tried to fill those roles with projects like James Brewer. Besides an offensive line that was showing signs of cracks the Giants had one of the worst blocking tight ends in the league, Brandon Myers, penciled in as their new starter.  The bulked up former work-out warrior Adrien Robinson was supposed to be the key blocker at the tight end position, but he ballooned up to over 285 pounds and injured his foot in the preseason.

The fumbles by David Wilson against the Dallas Cowboys in week 1 were actually a culmination of mistakes that he had continued to make in the preseason.  The pressure was on the young man and he really struggled with it.  In redraft leagues I panicked right away.  I was not buying low as some were in the first few weeks of the season.  Instead I was selling him for a sliding scale from Frank Gore to Ryan Matthews.  By the end you were lucky to get Mark Ingram for him. In dynasty leagues it was tough to become a seller.  His value had taken a dip, but his potential was just so high that actually pulling the trigger on a deal was difficult.

All of these bad memories had me file David Wilson away as a cautionary tale in the back of my mind, but then after talking to Micah that file was reopened. I had to look at David Wilson for the opportunity and the player that he is THIS season. Wilson suffered a fractured vertebra in his neck last season and had spinal fusion in the off-season.  The Giants were pretty tight-lipped about his recovery, but then around the NFL draft Tom Coughlin and Jerry Reece started saying that they believed Wilson would be cleared to play this season and that he was in fantastic shape. I teased a few of my friends on Twitter with tweets about Wilson being back, but they were all in jest.

I mean, the Giants had already moved on and signed their work-horse back in Rashad Jennings. The same Jennings that is 29 years old and has never rushed for over 750 yards in a season.  The same Rashad Jennings who’s career totals look like a down season for Adrien Peterson.  ( 1677 rushing yards and 13 TOTAL TDs) Well if Jennings isn’t the answer then it must be the running back the Giants drafted in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft.  Right?  Andre Williams is a gifted runner with some very surprising explosion numbers for a running back that is over 230 pounds, BUT he has smallish hands (9 Inches) and has never shown the ability to catch the football.  He really hasn’t shown the leg drive that would make him a short yardage back either, but he is a very good running back to add to a rotation. If Jennings can’t stay healthy, as he’s often showed in his career, then David Wilson is right back in the mix.  If he can somehow learn how to pass block to go with his pass catching skills then he could even slide right into Jennings role as lead back.  There’s a lot to get excited about and that’s why my former Co-host was so adamant that he will take a flier on Wilson late in some drafts because of the upside. So what else does David Wilson have going for him this year? First of all he’s back on the field.

Second, he has a brand new offensive line blocking for him. The Giants spent a lot of money in the off season getting quality bodies to either start of be key back ups.  They signed one of ProFootballFocus’s favorite offensive lineman in Geoff Schwartz from Kansas City.  They signed J.D. Walton and John Jerry to be key back ups on the interior of the offensive line.  They drafted the best Center available in the NFL Draft in Weston Richburg to potentially start and they signed Charles Brown to be a swing tackle. Third, he has a brand new offense.

Kevin Gilbride’s running game was built on slow developing running plays that really weren’t the best way to use David Wilson.  Ben McCadoo’s new West Coast Offense should be just what the doctor ordered.  Screens, Speed Draws, and quick fullback leads will get Wilson in open space quicker.  My excitement for the new offense is tempered by the fact that he has to learn a whole new blocking scheme with new responsibilities.  He will be learning this new offense all while coming back from a major injury. While he was clearly off my radar before last night he is back in my bag of late round darts at this point.

Even if he never becomes the fantasy star I thought he was destined for he can be a big contributor to a turn around for a Giants offense that was a fantasy wasteland last season.

Updated 8/4/2014:  David Wilson has been told by New York Giants team doctors that his career is over. After suffering a burner in practice the week before many people around the organization feared the worse when thinking of David Wilson’s football playing days.  Sure enough, the doctors confirmed that it was just too dangerous for Wilson to go back on the field.  Tom Coughlin told the media that the smile never left Wilson’s face, even when hearing the career ending news.  David Wilson’s quote put in perspective the fact that he still lived his dream, no matter how fleeting it was, and looks forward to dreaming a new dream and living that one as well.  While I am sad today as a Giants fan as a fantasy football owner who dreamed of his potential, most of me is just so happy that we get to see him walk away from the game instead of suffering another major injury on the field.

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NFC East Wide Receiver Movement

NFC East Free Agency and Wide Receiver Movement

Rueben Randle warms up.

New York Giants: The Giants let Hakeem Nicks walk this off season and brought back an old Super Bowl hero as a sort-of replacement. The Giants had no designs on keeping Hakeem Nicks in the fold so it came as no surprise when he signed a prove-it deal with the Indianapolis Colts. Nicks’ declining health and skills wore on the Giants’ brass and fans alike. His Fantasy Football stock is at an all-time low even being paired with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, in Andrew Luck.

The sort-of replacement is none other than Mario Manningham. The Giants former third-round pick is back after spending two injury-plagued years in San Francisco. While having Manningham back in the fold feels nice as a fan of the Giants, I don’t expect him to start or to be an asset in Fantasy Football next season. Instead of replacing Hakeem Nicks on the Giants’ roster he is essentially replacing Louis Murphy, who had a very forgettable tenure with Big Blue.

The Giants should and probably will look to fill the void Hakeem Nicks’ exit has created by starting Rueben Randle and getting Jerrel Jernigan more involved in the offense. I do look for the Giants to draft an outside wide receiver this year, and could even see them taking Mike Evans if he ever fell to them. If Evans doesn’t fall to the Giants at 12 there will be a lot of talent at the wide receiver position available at their slot in the second round. Davante Adams or Donte Moncrief would be excellent second round picks.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have had a quiet off season as they are right up against the cap and have done some foolish things with their money lately. While Dez Bryantdidn’t quite take the leap to 1B to Calvin Johnson’s 1A as a fantasy wide receiver as many thought he might, he did put up solid numbers last season. Ninety-three receptions for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, but did leave some fantasy owners wanting.

The lack of a clear cut second option in the passing game hurt Dez Bryant last season.Jason Witten was another year older, and slower, and Miles Austin once again spent most of the season rehabbing his forever-pulled hamstrings. The only bright spot was they appeared to hit on their third round pick in Terrance Williams from Baylor. Williams had 44 receptions for over 700 yards and 5 TD’s in a rookie campaign that saw him grow. Williams is definitely a player to keep on your radar as a potential wide receiver 3 in 12-team leagues next year. In fact, if he has a good offseason you should target him.

Philadelphia Eagles: Can I just say wow! I knew DeSean Jackson had a high salary cap number, but after the season he had last year I was fully expecting the Eagles to extend him or at least have him play it out. Well, in today’s NFL you never know. Don’t get me wrong I know Jackson is tough to deal with, I often compare him to some of the prima-donna strikers you see in the English Premier League, but I didn’t think they would let their second-best player walk.

With Jackson gone the Eagles will feature Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position and Zach Ertz at the tight end position. I don’t think Chip Kelly realizes how much ackson helped the Eagles last year with his ability to make a secondary respect his deep speed, but Kelly will find out quickly if teams are able to stack the box to try and stop LeSean McCoy.

Obviously Cooper and Maclin get a big jump in value with Jackson gone, but the one who may benefit the most is Ertz. Ertz quietly had a very nice rookie campaign as he caught 36 passes for 469 yards and 4 TD’s. Even with Brent Celek getting some of the targets from the tight end position I am moving Zach Ertz up my fantasy rankings. I currently have him 12th before the NFL Draft. Maclin’s return from injury could have been a nice buy-low, but with Jackson leaving you may have to pay a premium to see if Maclin’s knee is really healed. He is currently the 37th wide receiver going off the board in my Fantasy League Drafts. Cooper will be a wide receiver 4 next season with the same volatility he had this year. He’s the perfect guy to take in best ball leagues or to play when you really need a high ceiling play.

DeSean Jackson Signs With The Redskins

Washington Redskins: The Redskins last year featured Pierre Garcon and…..well no one. The thinking was Fred Davis would finally come into his own well…..that didn’t happen. (He is currently suspended from the league indefinitely, oh and making really terrible rap albums.) The Redskins decided to address this lopsidedness in free agency and have been very active in free agency. They signed David Gettis, the former promising wide receiver from the Carolina Panthers. They signed the versatile Andre Robertsfrom the Arizona Cardinals. Roberts can play inside or outside and has always been a bit under rated.

I thought the Redskins may have been done there and assumed Garcon would still get the lion’s share of targets and production, but low and behold Dan Snyder saw Jackson hitting the street and he pulled out that big check book. Jackson had a career year last season with the Eagles with 82 receptions for more than 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. His numbers will probably never come close to those again, but he can still be a useful fantasy wide receiver.

The Redskins’ new head coach, Jay Gruden, is a west coast offense disciple. He will use the tight end, Jordan Reed. He will get the ball out quickly to wide receivers that can run after the catch, Jackson and Garcon profile as excellent west coast wide receivers, and he will will stretch the field with built in deep shots. Gruden’s Bengals last season relied on the deep ball a little too much and I think he will get back to a more ball control offense in Washington. Garcon and Jackson are both wide receiver twos with this move, but with them also sharing the ball with the gifted Jordan Reed I move them down to the bottom of the wide receiver two list. Garcon still holds more value for me in PPR leagues and I would still be comfortable with him as a solid wide receiver two there.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, @Coachesser and connect with me on Facebook. You can also read all of my articles on everything fantasy at Coachesser.com.

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Free Agent Rashad Jennings

This week I will take a look at how free agency has affected the New York Yankees, oops, I mean the New York Giants.

I’m sure you can understand my confusion with all the money flying at the players who have been visiting Met Life Stadium.

Rashad Jennings Running

Rashad Jennings made a name for himself in Fantasy Football when he was a backup to Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville. You see Fantasy Football crazies love to imagine what a running back will do if he is just given the chance to get the bulk of the carries. The infatuation with Jennings started in 2010 when he began to flash in games as he filled in for MJD. In a 2010 games against the Giants Jennings rushed 7 times for 57 yards and a touchdown. The following two weeks he carried the ball 15 times for a total of 153 yards and two touchdowns. He finished 2010 with a 100-yard game and scored another rushing touchdown against the Houston Texans. Injuries turned 2011 into a lost season and then 2012 was underwhelming.

After 2012 Jennings looked to be just another backup running back who would always be more hope of potential then actual talent. Well in 2013 he signed with the Oakland Raiders and was put in a position where he could back up one of the most injury-prone running backs in the league, Darren McFadden. In the preseason he was battling the dynasty fantasy darling Latavius Murray before Murray was injured and lost for the season. Jennings then played special teams and waited for the inevitable injury to McFadden.

For the first few weeks of the season Jennings just had to bide his time and stay healthy and then from weeks 10 to week 15 of the 2013 NFL season Jennings showed what he could do when given a full workload. He got 113 carries over that six-week period and used those carries to rumble for 539 yards. He also caught 19 passes for 160 yards in that span. Those six games made some fantasy owners very happy. Those six games made Jennings a lot of money as he signed a four-year, $10 million deal with the Giants.

Here’s the play that will be remembered above all others from Rashad Jennings in 2013:

 

My fantasy take right now is inconclusive. I am excited as a Giants’ fan that Jennings is here to help anchor the running back position, but what makes a running back really excel in fantasy is a dominant offensive line and an offensive game plan that will feature that back in multiple ways. For now I have to reserve judgment as I think the Giants are on the right path of upgrading their offensive line with the signing of Geoff Schwartz (eighth-ranked OG by PFF) and the further development of last season’s first-round pick Justin Pugh, but there still are a lot of question marks.

 

Geoff Schwartz vs. Zane Beadles Courtesy of @PFF_Pete (Pete Damilatis):

 

 

 

J.D. Walton was rated as the worst center in the league by Pro Football Focus his last full season in the league in 2011. That doesn’t exactly stoke my confidence as he looks to be in line to be the starting center as of right now. Chris Snee’s hips didn’t cooperate last year and there is no guarantee that he will be able to hold up this year. The injury-plaguedDavid Baas has been jettisoned, but the versatile Kevin Boothe has been signed away by the Oakland Raiders. While Boothe had a down year last season (46th-ranked) he was rated as the 20th-best guard in 2012 by PFF and could even slide over and play center.

 

On the bright side, Will Beatty can always bounce back after last season’s nightmare. He went from the 11th-ranked offensive tackle in the NFL by PFF in 2012 all the way down to 58th under players with one foot out of the NFL door like Jeremy Trueblood and Ryan Harris. The big offseason contract obviously had a major impact on Beatty as he tried to live up to the money he was making, but now he has to get back to work and try and play like he did in 2012.  I’m positive he will bounce back next season and think he will benefit with Schwartz lined up next to him.

The other wild card is new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who has never called plays before. McAdoo has said that his offense will contain west coast elements that should have me excited about Jennings in the passing and screen game, but again it’s hard to put last year out of my mind.  I think one of the Cowboys is still running back one of the Giants’ screen passes from last year.

To wrap up I do like Jennings’ fantasy value in New York a lot more than I would have liked him if he had signed a one-year deal to stay in Oakland.  He may have to deal with a hopefully healthy David Wilson stealing some carries and an offensive line that may need some time to gel, but with McAdoo calling the plays I think he can be a legitimate running back 2 in Fantasy Football next season.

Check back next Friday when I go over the signing of (Super) Mario Manningham and what to expect of former Giant Hakeem Nicks in Indianapolis.

For all of your off season Fantasy Football news stop over at Coachesser.com for my current rankings as well as league wide articles.  You can also get ahead of the competition in Fantasy Baseball by checking out my rankings which are also now featured at FantasyPros.com.  You can also Mock Draft right on my site with help from the Pros.

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Fantasy Football: Week 13 Thoughts

The holidays tend to be stressful for a lot of people. They are supposed to be the times we cherish and look forward to, but in reality the planning and logistics can lead many people to lose their cool. Now imagine throwing in a must-win fantasy football match up into the mix. Your grandmother is asking you to pass the cranberry sauce and you’re screaming at the television as Calvin Johnson, once again, gets tackled at the 1-yard line.

Before we start stuffing our turkey let’s take a look back at week 12 in the NFL.

Nice Surprises

Tiquan Underwood

The Detroit Lions have had a lot of trouble covering receivers lately and this week was no different. The only surprise was that it was Tiquan Underwood who burned them for three receptions for 108 yards and two TDs instead of Vincent Jackson. Underwood and Tim Wright were both nice match up plays in deep leagues last week and they both paid off. The other good thing to come out of that game for fantasy owners and for Tampa fans is that Mike Glennon continues to play mistake-free football.

The San Diego Chargers pulled off a huge upset this past Sunday and their quarterback, Phillip Rivers, once again proved that he is back to being one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league. Rivers was firmly planted on fantasy benches as he was facing a tough Kansas City defense in Kansas City, but put up the best passing numbers of the week of any quarterback in the league. He threw for 392 yards and three touchdowns helping him to become the fourth overall fantasy quarterback through week 12.

The Tennessee Titans were able to carve up the Oakland Raiderssecondary this past Sunday, but it wasn’t just Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker doing the damage. Ryan Fitzpatrick found rookie Justin Hunter six times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Hunter looked to be buried on the depth chart to start the year, but has worked his way into a significant role in their offense. His emergence has helped seal the fate of former Rutgers star Kenny Britt.

The last surprise really came out of no where. Everyone in the fantasy world was excited for the Denver Broncos to go into Foxboro and play the New England Patriots on Sunday night. Fantasy numbers were going to be ringing up faster than a cash register at Walmart on Black Friday. While everyone was hoping Danny Amendola would do his best Wes Welkerimpersonation, it was the old Wes Welker fill-in, Julian Edelman doing his spot on impression. Edelman caught nine balls for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

Disappointments

One of the biggest busts of the weekend was Victor Cruz. The absence of Hakeem Nicks and the strong wind gusts had a lot to do with Cruz’s sub-par numbers. The fumble on his first reception of the game didn’t help him either. Some reason for hope was provided by 4for4.com’s John Paulsen.

 

 

 

Another receiver who had his worst game of the season was Andre Johnson. Johnson caught just two balls for 36 yards as the Texans lost to the Jaguars. Johnson has become more openly frustrated with what’s happening in Houston and I’m a little scared that he’s letting it affect his play. Johnson gets the very physical Aqib Talib this week when he faces the New England Patriots. If Talib does as good a job on Johnson as he did on Demaryius Thomas last week then Johnson could be in for a tough day.

Andrew Luck had one of his worst games as a professional this past weekend. He barely reached a 50 percent completion percentage by going 20 for 39 and only managed 163 yards through the air against a very toughArizona Cardinals defense. The Colts have become so one-dimensional that it is now affecting Luck and his receivers. The lack of a running game has defenses teeing off on passing downs. Coby Fleener continues to play at a tight end 1 level and should be considered a fantasy starter from here on out.

My biggest disappointment has to be Robert Griffin III. Whether it’s his knee holding him up or just a case of him regressing we can no longer keep him in a borderline QB1 category. I really am at a loss for words when it comes to Griffin. I blame it on Adrian Peterson’s performance last year coming off of ACL surgery.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day and the rest of week 13.

I was so looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers carve up the Lion’s secondary this Thanksgiving, but alas, that won’t be the case. Rodgers isn’t cleared for contact and it looks like Matt Flynn may get the start. Flynn looked pretty good in relief this past weekend and should be able to put up good numbers against a bad Detroit secondary. One thing Detroit has been doing well is stopping the run and that means Eddie Lacy won’t be able to build on the momentum of his performance against the Vikings. I still have Lacy as a high end RB2 this week, but he very easily could be an RB1 if he gets in the end zone.

Looking at the other side of the ball Matthew Stafford has quietly been the third-best quarterback in fantasy football this season and is just now getting back a receiver that is actually fantasy relevant as a counterpart to the amazing Calvin Johnson. Nate Burleson had a very nice game coming back from his broken arm and looks like he could settle in as a nice flex play the rest of the season in PPR leagues.

The Giants ran the ball down the Cowboys throats and I expect the Raiders to pick up where the Giants left off. Rashad Jennings has been extremely good since he took over for the injured Darren McFadden and could be a middle of the pack RB1 this Thursday. Rod Streater has been playing well since Matt McGloin took over at quarterback and should be a low end WR3 going forward with McGloin at the helm. In the same game Tony Romo has a tremendous match up and should be able to feature Dez Bryant against a shaky Raiders’ secondary.

Antonio Brown

The Pittsburgh Baltimore night game has slug-fest written all over it. Antonio Brown is on a tear right now for the Pittsburgh Steelers and should be able to handle an improving Ravens‘ secondary. Le’Veon Bell has been very solid as RB2 in both standard and PPR formats, but could be facing one of his tougher tests as Baltimore tends to play tough at home. Ben Roethlisbergerhas been playing at a very high level and should receiver consideration from fantasy owners as a possible replacement for their struggling QB1. On the other side of the ball Ray Rice and the Ravens offensive line continue to struggle running the ball.  They have struggled so badly that the Ravens have turned to back up QB Tyrod Taylor to kick start their running game. Joe Flacco didn’t look very happy lining up at wide receiver, but the Raven need to do whatever it takes to move the ball. Torrey Smith continues to get better as wide receiver and should be nice WR2 for the rest of the season. Hopefully the Ravens will get Dennis Pitta back soon to help open things up for everyone.

One of my favorite match ups this weekend is the bears against the Vikings.Josh McCown has been able to put up very good numbers since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler and this week he has a tremendous match up to exploit. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte have all been able to keep up their production with McCown pulling the trigger. On the other side of the ball Adrian Peterson gets to face aChicago Bears defense that has been an absolute ATM to fantasy running backs. Zac Stacy would have put up 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns last week if he didn’t leave the game concussed in the second quarter. Peterson owes the Bears some payback after struggling with his footing in their earlier match up this season.

Waiver Wire

Zac Stacy owners should pick up Benny Cunningham just in case he doesn’t get cleared for this week. Nate Burleson should be a very high priority for wide receiver needy teams. Michael Crabtree should be owned in all leagues as he was just put on the active roster for the 49ers. The 49ers don’t put the ball in the air all that often so don’t expect big dividends right away.

***I just wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone reading this post a very happy holiday.***

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: NY Giants Week 10 Start/Sit


The Giants spent the bye week healing up and readying for an uphill battle back to the top of the NFC East.  While it’s anyone’s guess if the Giants really have a legitimate shot at making a run at the NFC East title, the fact that the Giants are as healthy as they have been since training camp cannot be disputed.

Andre Brown

The Giants welcome back their power back Andre Brown to a now crowded back-field and could get their best run-blocking tight end, Adrien Robinson, back from a preseason foot injury.  The combination could have a ripple effect throughout the Giants offense that could benefit everyone involved.  What looked like a thunder and lightning partnership between Andre Brown and David Wilson, has now become a backfield full of rolling thunder.  Andre Brown, Peyton Hillis, and finally healthy Brandon Jacobs could become the type of backfield that can break the wills of opponents.

Fantasy Outlook

Eli Manning-311.56 yards 1.45 TDs and 1.56 Ints (numberFire projection)

Eli comes off the bye week with an offensive line that has finally settled in together.  While the defense was finally clicking on all cylinders before the bye week , Eli and the offense were sputtering.  The additions of Andre Brown and Adrien Robinson can only help Eli over the second half of the year. I expect Eli to have a very big game and my co-host, Micah James, at Trick Plays picked him as his sleeper of the week. The Raidersdefense is ripe for the picking and Eli should put up top ten QB numbers.

Andre Brown-6.02 carries for 27.15 yards and .14 TDs (numberFire)

Brown’s return to the offense comes at an interesting time for the Giants’ running game.  Brandon Jacobs had gashed the Bears a few weeks ago before getting injured, and then Peyton Hillis did a more than adequate job stepping into the backfield off the street. Hillis has proved a solid pass blocker as well as pass catcher while doling out his usual forward falling straight ahead runs. Brown’s patience and skills in the screen game could be a perfect compliment to these two bruisers.  I actually like Brown to be a nice flex play this week against a bad Raiders defense.

Peyton Hillis-8.40 carries for 27.24 yards and .12 TDs, 2.30 receptions for 21.16 yards and .12 TDs (numberFire)

Hillis will have a diminished role with Brown back from injury, but just how much it will be diminished is still to be seen. Hillis has been very valuable on passing downs and could carve out a niche going forward in that role. I don’t see him as much of a fantasy option until we see how much Brown is going to be used this week.

Brandon Jacobs-?

The return of Andre Brown and the emergence of Peyton Hillis has put a damper on the great story that was for Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs will be lucky to hang onto a roster spot with Brown’s return and should only get short yardage and spot usage going forward.

Victor Cruz-5.34 receptions for 76.09 yards and .43 TDs (numberFire)

Cruz missed practice yesterday with a stiff neck and his status is to be monitored going forward for those that have him in fantasy.  I actually have Cruz having a much bigger day, if he plays, than numberFire has him having against the Raiders pass defense. The Raiders safeties have been as bad as any in the league and Cruz can run by them at will if he is healthy.

Hakeem Nicks-3.44 receptions for 46.21 yards and .41 TDs (numberFire)

Nicks has been pretty bad from a fantasy perspective this season. This match-up could be the one to get him going.  The Raiders corners have struggled in man coverage and Nicks should be able to beat them off the line of scrimmage at will.  I expect almost double the numberFire projections.

Rueben Randle-2.28 receptions for 33.66 yards and .32 TDs (numberFire)

Randle put up a goose-egg the last time out and could see his snaps limited with the return of Stacy Robinson at tight end. While Randle may not get enough snaps to have a huge game, he may only need a few to make a fantasy impact.  I expect the Giants to take some deep shots to Randle if they are able to get the running game going. I have Randle as a WR4 this week, but he has TD potential.

Brandon Myers-3.31 receptions for 32.82 yards and .28 TDs (numberFire)

Myers will be freed up from some of his blocking duties by the return of Adrien Robinson to the lineup.  Myers has failed to click with Eli Manning so far this season and his production is hard to even project.  He is only the fourth option in the offense and should be no more than a tight end two going forward.  He could have some more opportunities in the passing game with Hillis in the backfield and Robinson in at tight end.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a nice game this week after watching the Raiders try to cover the Eagles tight ends last week.

Start/Sit Around the League

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers‘ injury has the fantasy football world in an uproar.  His shoulder injury not only affects Rodgers’ fantasy owners, but also the owners of Jordy Nelson, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones, and to a lesser extent Eddie Lacy.

Aaron Rodgers owners …

The first thing I would do is to look at the waiver wire and see if Jay Cutler is available.  Cutler may return this week from a torn groin and was playing at a borderline QB1 before his injury.  He has a great match up against the lions this week and should be good to go if the doctors clear him. Other QBs that could be your answer on the waiver wire are Nick Foles and Case Keenum.  Foles is a good choice, but don’t go chasing last week’s points. The Raiders won’t be there for the Eagles to pick on the rest of the year. Keenum will have a huge test this week against the Cardinals on the road, but he has shown a nice deep ball as well as a rapport with his number one receiver Andre Johnson.

Jordy Nelson owners …

Don’t panic, but the WR1 days are over with Wallace at the helm in Green Bay. Seneca Wallace has poor arm strength and will have a hard time hitting Nelson on any out breaking routes as well as getting the ball to him deep. Nelson  could still be a WR3 going forward, but I am going to be playing the wait and see game and pray that Rodgers is back in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Jarrett Boykin owners …

Boykin has had a nice showing while filling in for James Jones and Randall Cobb, but his fantasy relevance took a huge hit with Rodgers going down. I would jump ship with Boykin if Riley Cooper, Aaron Dobson, or Mike Brown were available on the waiver wire.

James Jones owners …

Jones has always had trouble separating from coverage, but that was never a problem for Aaron Rodgers.  Jones would body up his defender and Rodgers would fit it in to him. Jones is going to be a WR4 until Rodgers comes back from injury.

Eddie Lacy owners …

Eddie Lacy was fast becoming a top fantasy running back the last few weeks, but the absence of Rodgers could  put a stop to that trend.  Lacy was facing soft fronts with Rodgers at quarterback and now will face stacked boxes that are full of run blitzes. If I was a defensive coordinator, stopping Lacy and his running mate James Starks would be my first priority. Lacy goes back to RB2 territory until Rodgers comes back.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesser or by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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Fantasy Football: Week 7 Thoughts

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Marshawn Lynch was his usual powerful self running for over 90 yards and scoring a touchdown.  His middle finger to the sideline on a goal-line pass call was like a scene from the cutting room floor of Any Given Sunday.  If I were Lynch I would be pissed as well as he is as good as it gets at the goal line.  Russell Wilson broke the spell of underperforming QBs on Thursday night as he managed 3 TDs through the air and ran for an additional 29 yards.  Zach Miller continued the tight end dominance against the Cardinals as he had 5 grabs for 40 yards and a TD.  The return of Percy Harvin to practice this week makes him a top waiver priority, but don’t expect huge numbers in this run first offense.

The Cardinals on the other hand were lucky that the scoreboard didn’t reflect their actual play.  Waiver wire darling Andre Ellington managed 5 touches for 13 yards, as Rashard Mendenhall once again led the Cardinals’ backfield in touches with 13.  Mendenhall was once again ineffective as he had only 22 yards on 13 carries, but did manage a rushing TD.  Larry Fitzgerald was playing on a balky hamstring and it showed.  He only had 2 receptions for 17 yards on 5 targets.  Michael Floyd led the Cardinals in yardage and targets, while Rob Housler had a lot of “garbage time” looks.  Housler finished with a season high 7 receptions for 53 yards.  If Jermichael Finley was your TE1 Housler may be a better roster filler than whoever gets named Finley’s replacement.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Mike Glennon was able to top 20 fantasy points once again as he made it a point to target Vincent Jackson whenever possible.  Jackson led all wide receivers in week 7 with 22 targets, while finishing with a tremendous 10 receptions for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Tim Wright got the bulk of the passing down snaps, but didn’t see the targets necessary to make him fantasy football relevant.  Doug Martin had juicy match up against Atlanta and of course he was injured while running the ball in the red zone.  Mike James took over and looked very capable in Martin’s absence.  Schiano won’t admit that Martin’s shoulder injury is season ending yet, but I would be targeting Mike James in all free agent systems.  The volume will be there and he is a skilled runner so it could be worth mortgaging your FAAB budget if your early round running backs didn’t pan out. (Wilson, T-Rich, Spiller, etc.)

The demise of Matt Ryan was greatly exaggerated as he had a fantastic fantasy day against the Buccaneers.  His big first half was enough to calm many a fantasy GMs nerves.  Jacquizz Rogers  had a great PPR day with 8 receptions for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Falcons as team found it difficult to run the ball as they had 18 carries for 18 total yards.  With Steven Jackson having a set back last week it only solidifies Rogers’ PPR value.  Tony Gonzalez was thought to be the beneficiary of all the lost targets from the losses of Julio Jones and Roddy White, but Harry Douglas had other plans.  Douglas had his best fantasy day as a pro with 7 receptions for 149 yards and touchdown, while Gonzo had 2 receptions for 30 yards.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions

The Bengals’ Andy Dalton must have heard me muttering a few weeks ago about his lack of production.  I was sold on him coming into the year as the poor man’s Matt Ryan with all the weapons at his disposal, but he had failed to breakout until the last two weeks.  Dalton had 372 yards and 3 touchdowns in a tough road game in Detroit.  AJ Green had a huge game with 6 receptions for 155 yards and a TD.  The Bengals talented tight end duo of Gresham and Eifert had 7 receptions for over 100 yards and a touchdown combined.  Giovani Bernard was held in check, but still managed over 10 points in full point PPR leagues.  Marvin Jones had a nice TD and could be taking over a the WR2 very soon.  For those of you that lost Reggie Wayne this weekend in deep leagues, I could see taking flier on the talented Jones. 

Calvin Johnson

Matthew Stafford was once again a player that many thought about benching going against a very tough Cincy Defense that never gives up 300 yard games, but if you stayed the course you were rewarded.  While Stafford wasn’t terribly efficient (28/51) he did manage to throw for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns.  That gives him 7 passing TDs over the last two weeks.  Reggie Bush got plenty of opportunities with 20 carries and 5 targets, but only managed 94 yards.  Calvin Johnson broke out big time with 9 receptions for 155 yards and 2 TDs after being a decoy last week.  Kris Durham was targeted 8 times and came away with 5 receptions for 41 yards.  Joseph Fauria was NOT the tight end to reach the end zone as Brandon Pettigrew was able to catch a touch down pass.  Fauria did see 3 targets in the end zone.  Nate Burleson is almost back and will be a welcome sight for this offense.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Thad Lewis was unable to match his week 6 fantasy output (who knew) and finished with 0 TDs.  Stevie Johnson was his favorite target with 13 total targets, but only managed 6 receptions for 61 yards.  CJ Spiller had 9 touches for 7 total yards.  7!!!!!  The future is as cloudy as it’s ever been for this top fantasy draft pick.  Fred Jackson was injured twice during the game,  but toughed it out and managed the only offensive touchdown for the Bills.

Ryan Tannehill was constantly under pressure and turned the ball over 3 times resulting in points for the Buffalo Bills.  Brandon Gibson was a PPR star with 5 receptions for 40 yards and 2 TDs.  Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline both had over 10 targets, but didn’t have the big games many expected.  Charles Clay turned his one reception into a touch down.  I was surprised he wasn’t more involved.  I was even more surprised that the annoying (for fantasy purposes) Daniel Thomas had more touches than Lamar Miller.  Miller is in a virtual time share for the foreseeable future and should be benched in most formats.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Tony Romo had a few bad turnovers, but still managed to top 300 yards and throw a touchdown pass.  Joseph Randle proved to be just an average talent, but did have 22 touches for 93 yards.  Miles Austin once again was riding a bike and it looks like he will be shut down for a while.  He honestly he doesn’t fit the offense anymore as their ideal set of receivers is Dez, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and Jason Witten are much better at exploiting matchups.  Dez Bryant had 8 receptions on 16 targets for 110 yards.  Terrance Williams once again scored a touch down and looks to be more than a dynasty league target now.  He is a legitimate WR2 if Miles Austin is phased out.  If he is available make him a top priority.

Nick Foles pretty much sunk every daily fantasy line up I had as he was horrible while he was in the game and later left with a concussion.  The good new is Michael Vick should be back this week.  DeSean Jackson failed to get going with his QBs struggling and was injured on a running play.  Somehow Jason Avant had a team high 15 targets, but only turned them into 3 receptions.  Riley Cooper had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 88 yards and still managed one bad drop.  LeSean McCoy was held in check by a Dallas defense filled with no names up front.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Gronk

Tom Brady once again disappointed, but who can blame him.  These wide receivers just can’t be relied on and he focused almost all of his attention on the returning Rob Gronkowski.  Gronk led the Patriots in targets with 17 and had 8 receptions for 114 yards.  He was tackled inside the 2 yard line on one play and failed to see a pass from Brady because of the sun being in his eyes, otherwise he would have also had a touchdown.  Brady was focusing on Gronk so much that he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown on one pass where he defender undercut Gronk’s route.  Ridley and Bolden split the touches in the backfield and both had rushing touchdowns.  Bolden getting the first crack at a goal line carry had some Ridley owners running for the exits.  Ridley is by far the best running back at their disposal, but he is nothing more than a RB2 with this usage.

Geno Smith was inefficient when throwing the football (17/33), but did manage to throw a touchdown and run for one.  Off season acquisition Chris Ivory was finally on display, but nobody decided to tell fantasy owners of Bilal Powell that Ivory would be the bell-cow for the day.  Ivory getting 34 carries for 104 yards was a nice surprise for anyone who was forced to put him in their lineups is deeeep leagues.  Jeremy Kerley was able to show off his considerable skills in the absence of Santonio Holmes by having 8 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown.  Jeff Cumberland started the game with a 25 yard reception, but managed just 2 more receptions for 16 additional yards.  I still like his skill set if you’re desperate for a tight end.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins

The Bears are decimated by injuries on defense and that trend continued as Lance Briggs was injured in this game.  The bigger problem for the Bears and fantasy owners is Jay Cutler was injured and looks like he will be out more than a month with a groin tear.  Matt Forte was in all my daily fantasy lineups and that paid off big time as he had his first ever 3 rushing touch down game.  Alshon Jeffrey made the most of his four receptions as he went over 100 yards and had an additional 16 on the ground.  Brandon Marshall had 6 receptions for 75 yards on a team high 10 targets.  Martellus Bennett made the most of his one reception with a seven yard TD.  The fact that the Bears will have to turn to journeyman Josh McCown for the next few games makes banking on anyone besides Forte and Marshall going forward a tough thing to do.

I expected a huge game from the Redskins running game against the Bears and boy did we get it.  The only thing is it wasn’t Alfred Morris who was the top fantasy producer.  Instead Roy Helu Jr. came off the bench and vultured 3 touch downs.  The Redskins ran for 209 yards and Morris was able to nab 95 of those yards while Robert Griffin III was able to run for 84 yards.  The big news in this game was the break out of tight end Jordan Reed.  The signs have been coming for a while that Reed was going to break out and now he has arrived.  The stage was cleared before the game as Fred Davis was a healthy scratch and Reed came through big time with 9 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown.  Somehow he is only owned in 25%of ESPN fantasy leagues.  That’s going to end big time.  If he’s on the wire he should be your top priority.

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers

Well this game couldn’t have ended any worse for the Rams.  Their best defensive player Chris Long was shown the door for throwing a punch in a scrum and Sam Bradford was lost for the year to a torn ACL.  Janoris Jenkins decided to enrage Steve Smith of the Panthers and was the recipient of a vintage move by Smith for a receiving TD.  The only bright spot was waiver wire find Zac Stacy managed to have a nice fantasy game (87 total yards and a TD) in a terrible matchup.  The Rams should have to lean heavily on Stacy going forward, but their run game might not be able to hold up against the added attention.  Kellen Clemons is a big down grade from Sam Bradford behind a suspect offensive line.

The Panthers had a nice fantasy match up against the Rams and failed to capitalize.  Cam Newton put up pedestrian numbers and DeAngelo Williams was only able to 40 yards on 15 carries.  If you chose Mike Tolbert in any best ball leagues you got rewarded again with a short yardage touchdown.  Steve Smith had a touchdown and added 69 yards.  Greg Olsen only had 4 targets and caught all four for 47 yards.  I’m worried that he isn’t involved enough.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Philip Rivers was super efficient going 22/26 for 285 yards and a touchdown.  While Rivers had a very nice day it was the running backs you wanted in your lineups for this match up.  Ryan Mathews rewarded your patience by running the ball for 110 yards and 1 TD.  A running back going for 100 yards is nothing to sneeze at in today’s NFL.  Danny Woodhead once again put up over 15 PPR points and has been even better than he was last year in New England.  Eddie Royal finally got back in the end zone with a diving effort at the pylon.  Waiver wire target Keenan Allen had 3 receptions for 67 yards, but was banged up a little in this one.  Antonio Gates had 6 receptions, but managed only 31 yards.

Chad Henne had over 300 yards passing, but was sacked 6 times and threw one interception.  Justin Blackmon had a pedestrian game (6-58-0TDs) after having back to back huge games.  Cecil Shorts III was a surprise start and had a team high 8 receptions for 80 yards.  Mike Brown looked pretty good against Denver last week and he looked even better this week with 5 receptions for 120 yards.  I would only look at him in extremely deep leagues unless there’s an injury to Shorts or Blackmon.  Still a name to file away.

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans

The 49ers have decided they are a running team only apparently.  They rode Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick’s legs to a victory on the road.  Kaepernick was once a gain not a top 10 fantasy QB, but did look more decisive and explosive when running.  Frank Gore had 70 yards rushing with 2 TDs and even added 34 yards in the air.  Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis got the bulk of the targets and had decent days as both just barely managed more than 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Jake Locker made a surprise start and was a top 12 fantasy quarterback as he racked up yardage and touchdowns in catch up mode.  (326 yards 2 TDs)  Chris Johnson was only used in 1% of Draftstreet lineups because of the tough match up against the 49ers, but racked up 19 fantasy points thanks to a long catch and run. Kendall Hunter is becoming a nice flex option in PPR leagues as he had 9 receptions for 98 yards.  Nate Washington saw his targets increase (10) with Locker back , but managed only 3 receptions for 62 yards.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers

The Browns played like a team that knew they didn’t have a chance to win.  Even though the Packers defense was banged up the Browns failed to take advantage.  Weeden looked awful (17/42 for 149 yards 1TD 1Int) and it wouldn’t surprise me if he finds the bench next week.  McGahee was pedestrian and the Browns haven’t missed a beat with T-Rich traded.  The big surprise was the performance by Josh Gordon.  He had 2 receptions for 21 yards on 6 targets and looked almost disinterested.  Jordan Cameron got a lot of garbage time attentions and finished with a team high 7 receptions for 55 yards and 1 TD.

Finley's career may be in jeopardy after sustaining a serious neck injury

Finley’s career may be in jeopardy after sustaining a serious neck injury

Aaron Rodgers was able to have a very representative game (260 yards 3 touch downs) despite missing two of his biggest targets in Randall Cobb and James Jones.  Jarrett Boykin the owners that rushed to the waiver wire for him last week with 8 receptions for 103 yards and 1 TD.  Jordy Nelson was limited in production by Joe Haden, but still managed to grab 5 balls for 42 yards and 1 TD.  The big issue for the the Packers is the very scary injury to Jermichael Finley.  He was having a break out game with 5 receptions for 72 yards and a hard fought touch down, only to have his health come into question on a hit over the middle.  Finley has been diagnosed with a spinal contusion and if you own him you should look for a replacement ASAP.  I honestly hope he is put on IR and is able to fully heal before thinking about suiting up again.  Andrew Quarless will most likely take over tight end duties for the Packers, but I would look to some other FA names first.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Case Keenum got the chance to start for the struggling Texans.  He had a very nice game (271 yards 1 TD) even though he didn’t have a running game to take the pressure off.  Arian Foster injured his hamstring very early in the game and his back up Ben Tate apparently broke a few ribs filling in.  By the end of the game they were down to fullback Greg Jones running the ball as third string running back Cierre Wood was inactive and later released for team rules violations.  After the running backs were hurt it was impossible for Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to build on their hot starts to the game.

What more can I say about Jamaal Charles.  He is the most consistent runningback in fantasy football.  A ho-hum 123 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the 7th game in a row.  Dwayne Bowe had a team high 9 targets, but didn’t have a big game.  The return of Anthony Fasano almost produced two touchdowns, but he was tackled inside the 5 yard line twice.  Keep an eye on him in deep leagues as Alex Smith loves to feature the tight end.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game was a struggle for both teams and for fans to watch.  Ray Rice continued to struggle and Torrey Smith was once again held in check.  Nothing more to report besides some injuries to the Baltimore offensive line that might need a shuffle.

The bright spot for the Steelers was the continued emergence of Le’Veon Bell.  He carried the ball 19 times for over 90 yards and showed nice patience when pressing the hole.  One of my all-time favorite tight ends Heath Miller caught the only touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger, but only caught one other pass.  PPR beast Antonio Brown was held relatively in check with 6 receptions for 55 yards.  My Trick Plays sleeper Emanuel Sanders was a big disappointment with only one reception for 7 yards.  He teased me and fantasy owners with with a long touchdown return, but stepped out of bounds by a hair.  UGH!

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning was able to put up big fantasy numbers (386 yards 3 TDs), but his passes were mostly wounded ducks that had fantasy owners scared about an injury.  The injuries along the offensive line finally proved to be costly as Manning was hit regularly by the Colts defense.  Manning tried to take advantage of two deep safeties by running the ball, but Knowshon Moreno failed to get anything going on the ground (15-40 1 TD) and his running mate Ronnie Hillman once again had a costly fumble.  Eric Decker had 8 receptions for 150 yards and 1 TD, Demaryius Thomas had 4 for 82 and 1 TD, Wes Welker was fed the ball late and had 7 receptions for 96 yards.  Tight End Julius Thomas had 5 receptions for 41 yards and 1 TD.

Andrew Luck was played heavily in daily fantasy football and he didn’t disappoint. (228 yards 3 TDs 29 yards 1 TD), but he did lose his best wide receiver Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL on a poorly thrown ball.  The injury to Wayne should be very concerning for any Andrew Luck owner as he leaned on him heavily.  The Colts are going to need TY Hilton and Coby Fleener to grow up fast and Darius Heyward-Bey to make more plays.  Trent Richardson was once again held in check as he looks completely lost running the ball.  He is indecisive and shows a real lack of vision.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Adrian Peterson should have stayed on the bus for this one.  With the Vikings throwing Josh Freeman to the wolves by starting him a few short weeks aster signing him, Peterson was met  by a wall every time he tried to carry the ball.  Freeman looked rusty and out of sync with every wide receiver on the Vikings as he had over 30 in-completions.  Talking about any of the receivers would be disservice to them as they had no chance on may of Freeman’s throws.  I would stay away from starting any Viking besides AP until Freeman gets acclimated.

Eli Manning was looking at another banged up secondary and another chance to get into the good graces of fantasy owners, but once again didn’t produce. (200 yards 1 TD)  Peyton Hillis was signed off the street and found himself as many fantasy owners’ last hope of grabbing a victory.  While he totaled 81 total yards and a touchdown, it was anything but a great running back performance.  Hakeem Nicks had a case of the drops and if you hoped he would be traded to a better passing team I think that ship has sailed.  Victor Cruz had a tremendous match up and only managed 5 receptions for 50 yards.  Rueben Randle was once again hit or miss.  He made a tremendous leaping catch for a touchdown and then fumbled a punt return by using poor fundamentals.  I’m a little worried that play may land him in the doghouse next week.

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Fantasy Football: New York Giants Start/Sit

Fantasy drafts are finally behind us and now it’s time to put on our best managerial hats and make sure we don’t leave fantasy points on the bench. Nothing drives you more nuts then when you see a matchup that screams huge fantasy production, yet you don’t make the appropriate lineup changes. For example, a reader sent me a start/sit question that screamed matchup play. This particular reader needed advice on who to start as their third wide receiver for week 1 between Steve Smith and Lance Moore. Without looking at the schedule some might say, ” I drafted Steve Smith in the sixth round and Lance Moore in the ninth round, so I should obviously start Smith.” Wrong! Steve Smith is facing the Seattle Seahawks Defense and Lance Moore is playing at home on turf in an expected shootout against the Atlanta Falcons. It might be Moore’s best matchup of the season. Playing the matchups at your flex position or third wide receiver will win you a championship.

Eli Manning

Eli Manning: 23-of-34, 264 Yards, 3 TDs

Eli Manning and Kevin Gilbride had to hit the film room to try and get handle on on what to expect from Monte Kiffin’s new 4-3 defense in Dallas. While Kiffin has been out of the NFL the last few years, his core defensive principals are still being used around the league. The key to beating Monte Kiffin’s best defenses was always taking what the defense was willing to give. Exploiting the areas between the deep safeties and linebackers and keeping the chains moving. The last thing you want to do against a Kiffin defense is to get into too many third and longs. I think Eli will be able to work the middle of the field with a combination of Victor Cruz and Brandon Myers and exploit Dallas’s weakness at the safety position. I have Eli as a borderline QB1 for week one and a definite start in 2QB leagues.

David Wilson: 21 carries, 88 yards, 2 receptions 23 yards, 0 TDs

The New York Giants running game will be a little hard to predict out of the gate against the Dallas Cowboys this season. The reshuffled offensive line mixed with some question marks because of injuries further cloud the actual production that should be expected. If Henry Hynoski and David Baas were healthy Wilson may be a top 10 start against the Cowboys, but for now we have to temper our expectations just a bit. I would only keep Wilson on the bench this week if I had started a draft with three straight running backs, or if the league was a full point PPR league where Wilson was my third running back.

Victor Cruz (If Healthy): 8 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD

Victor Cruz is the best chess piece that Gilbride and Manning possess going against Dallas this week. His ability to threaten the entire middle of the field from settling in behind the linebackers to driving past safeties can make a defensive coordinator have nightmares.  In a typical “Tampa Two” look the middle linebacker will have deep middle in certain situations and that could be a nightmare for Sean Lee as Victor Cruz blows by him. I have Cruz as one of the best wide receiver plays this week as long as his bruised heel cooperates.

Hakeem Nicks: 4 receptions, 67 yards, 1 TD

Nicks is a bit of a conundrum. He is the guy that made Jerry Jones open up his wallet to sign Brandon Carr and draft Morris Claiborne, but is he still that guy?  I have a feeling Hakeem is going to have a very good year this season, but I don’t think this is the ideal matchup for his skill set. If his quickness is there he could find the void between the corner and the safety by beating the Dallas corners at the line of scrimmage, but the odds are slightly against him. I still have him in the top 20 as far as matchups this week, but he is more of a flex play then WR2.

Brandon Myers

Brandon Myers: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD

Brandon Myers and Manning didn’t exactly inspire confidence in the preseason, but the matchup in week 1 screams tight end production. Myers should be able to exploit the middle of the field and the flats to put up tight end 1 numbers after being almost invisible in the preseason. NumberFire has Brandon Myers as their number seven tight end for week 1 and I think that sounds about right after looking at the macthups.

Rueben Randle: 4 receptions, 52 yards, 0 TDs

While Randle is an important part of what the Giants offense there are too many other good wide receiver matchups around the league to think that Randle should be in anyone’s week 1 fantasy lineup.  I like Randle’s long term outlook, but his immediate value is only in the deepest of leagues.

 

For any of your last minute Fantasy Football questions follow me on Twitter @Coachesser or message me by liking my Facebook Page CoachEsser’s Playbook.  If you need start/sit advice fast go to my website www.coachesser.com and use my start/sit widget powered by NumberFire.

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The New York Giants Dynasty Darlings

Jay BuhnerThe entire reason I was drawn to fantasy sports as a child was a growing frustration with the New York Yankees shortsighted view during the 1980s. The Yankees were world famous for giving away their best talent while trying to recapture the glory of the late 70s during my formative years. The names read like an 1980s All-Star roster as they traded away the likes of Willie McGee, Fred McGriff, Jose Rijo,Doug Drabek, and my all time favorite (because of Seinfeld) Jay Buhner.

Meanwhile in the swamps of New Jersey George Young and Bill Parcells were putting together an organization and a team that would rival the greats of the 1980s. Building through defense and ball control offense the Giants slowly gained momentum until they were perennial Super Bowl contenders and the envy of all New York franchises during that time period. Bill Parcells got all the accolades and made for good sound bites, but it was George Young and his scouting department that made it possible for Parcells to work his magic.

The man in the funny glasses on the phone on draft day is who I always wanted to be. Unfortunately for me, my career and passions took me in another direction, but I am able to scratch that inner GM itch by playing Dynasty and Keeper league fantasy football. Dynasty leagues aren’t for everyone. They are for that true fantasy football fanatic that never wants the season to end. I equate dynasty leagues versus redraft leagues to when Madden and NCAA football made dynasty mode available. Some people could have cared less, because it was a purely social bragging rights thing for them to play with their friends and others went crazy playing month after month by themselves just to get Rutgers to the Fiesta Bowl on expert level. (Took me four excruciating seasons)

Anyone can win from year to year in Re-Draft leagues if you know what you are doing and everyone else in your leagues make the same mistakes continuously, but in Dynasty it takes a special kind of patience and foresight to make a continuous winner. If you have a keen eye for undervalued talent and players that may emerge in a year or two then dynasty and keeper leagues are for you. If you buy a draft guide the day of your draft and don’t keep up with the league after the Super Bowl then I would stick to Re-draft leagues if I were you.

As a Giant fan this is a very interesting year to be in Dynasty and Keeper leagues.David Wilson’s draft stock will rise and fall with every blurb from training camp in Re-draft leagues, but in Dynasty his talent is harder to overlook. In a start up Dynasty League mock draft I did with some writers in June, David Wilson went at the 16th overall pick. I was bummed I didn’t get him because of what he showed at the end of last year. Yes Tom Couglin and Kevin Gilbride like to use two backs, but they also can produce excellent fantasy backs while rotating the touches. David Wilson is a rare back that combines speed and toughness when he gets the ball in his hands. If he is able to become the lead back the sky is the limit. The comparisons to C.J. Spiller will continue to get louder until you are thinking they are one and the same by draft day.

 

Here Dynasty Football Warehouse’s Leo Paciga (AKA @FFHoudini) shows an interesting side by side of both C.J Spiller and David Wilson’s stats during their rookie years.C J Spiller

Spiller’s stats as a rookie

74 rushes, 283 yards, 0 TD’s
24 receptions 157 yards, 1 TD
44 KO returns, 1014 yards 1 TD (23.0 yard avg)

Wilson’s stats as a rookie

71 rushes, 358 yards, 4 TD’s
4 receptions, 34 yards, 1 TD
57 KO returns, 1533 yards, 1 TD (26.8 yard avg)

Currently C.J. Spiller is going in the top 5 of dynasty drafts just to give you a frame of reference to where David Wilson could be being drafted next year in startup dynasty leagues. I think his mid 2nd round ADP is still a value and could be tempted to take him at the 1-2 turn in leagues.

In Leo’s article that was written in March the Giants wide receiver situation was still in flux as both Cruz and Nicks looked to be potential training camp hold outs. What he wrote then still hold true today as Rueben Randle is an excellent dynasty draft pick at his current ADP. Randle has been going in the 9th to 10th rounds of startup dynasty leagues and very well could be a contributor this year. That’s the key with guys like Wilson and Randle. They can help you win now and may be in a position next year to help you dominate. With Nicks health always being a question Randle could see his value skyrocket if Nicks comes up lame again. Thinking forward to next year he would be a starter if the Giants let Nicks walk. Anyway you look at it Randle is an excellent pick in the 9th round range.

Victor Cruz & Hakeem Nicks

With Victor Cruz being relatively young and staring in an excellent passing offense he will be looked at at least a round earlier in Dynasty leagues. Cruz is valued in round two in dynasty leagues where he usually goes in the bottom of the third round in redrafts.Hakeem Nicks is the wildcard wide receiver for the Giants. His dynasty league fantasy value is depressed because of the injury history, but in a contract year you may hit the jackpot when you take him. If he resigns with the Giants and stays healthy he is an excellent dynasty WR capable of being a top 10 WR for years to come. If he decides to sign somewhere else you better hope for your sake as a dynasty owner that its somewhere that throws the ball. I have a feeling he could be in Carolina next season, but that’s purely speculation on my part.

One more key to Dynasty versus Redraft is the amount of trades that happen. A reader from our community contacted me with questions about dynasty leagues and the first thing I told him was there will always be trade talk. If you are like me and put talking trades right at the top of the list of reasons why fantasy sports are great than you have to think about joining a dynasty or keeper league. The season literally never ends and it actually is great for friendships as you talk to your league mates way more than you would if you were only in a redraft league together.

Please join the summer fantasy football conversation on Twitter by following me@Coachesser and visit me on Facebook and give my page CoachEsser’s Playbook a like if you want be the first to hear about any new articles or happenings in the fantasy sports world. Also visit me at www.coachesser.com to get all of my pre-season rankings and view my other articles featured around the web.

Note when I talk about drafts it is always based off of 12 team leagues and PPR scoring.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on Sunday July 28th, 2013

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The New York Giants’ latest version of “Thunder and Lightning”

The New York Giants have a great tradition at the running back position. From Joe Morris to Ahmad Bradshaw the position has been both solid on the field and in the world of fantasy football. Some Giants running backs stood taller among their peers than others. Morris was arguably the best fantasy football running back from 1985 to 1986 as he posted 280.8 points and 264.9 points during those two monster seasons, but measured up at only 5-foot-7. In 1985, Morris finished third in overall fantasy points at running back to brand names Marcus Allen and Roger Craig. In 1986 Morris was the last Giants running back to finish the season as the No. 1 fantasy running back as he scored more fantasy points than the likes of Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, and Curt Warner.

Bradshaw has been solid, but not spectacular during his tenure as injuries to his ankles and feet and a focus on running back by committee have hindered his overall numbers. This year the Giants backfield is in flux as Bradshaw will now be running the ball for the Indianapolis Colts and the two holdovers are relatively inexperienced.

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David Wilson, the New York Giants’ first-round pick in 2012, has been given the first chance at being the starter, according to reports. Opportunity governs value as much as ability when it comes to fantasy football. There is no use debating if a player can rush for 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns if he is only going to get half the carries. With the departure of Bradshaw, Wilson’s stock can be seen as on the rise, while the presence of touchdown vulture Andre Brown must temper expectations. Wilson excites Giants’ fans as well as fantasy football pros with his breakaway speed and athletic prowess, but his reputation for fumbling and limited experience in the passing game are causes for concern. If he lives up to his C.J. Spiller comparisons fantasy football GMs who are lucky enough to own him will be doing back flips right along with him this year. If he is in a true time share without goal-line carries or ends up on the sidelines because of fumbles and poor pass protection than all of our excitement will be for naught.

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Andre Brown is almost as green as Wilson despite being five years older. After being drafted in the fourth round out of N.C. State, Brown blew out his Achilles tendon during his first summer with the Giants. It has taken Brown a long time to stick on an NFL roster after his initial injury, but it looks like he found a home in New York. The Giants thought enough of him to bring him back into the fold on their Super Bowl run in 2011 and stood by him after he was suspended in the early part of 2012. Brown showed he can be an effective feature back when he was forced to carry the load against the Carolina Panther last season. He ran 20 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns when the Giants needed him the most. While he is not as explosive as he was in college, he is a better running back than when he came into the league. He shows good feet in the hole, while showing excellent vision. He also runs with a patient hard-nosed style that makes for a great compliment to the explosive Wilson.

The Giants have a nice recent history with using the running back by committee approach. Thunder and Lightning was coined when the Giants featured Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber during the 2000 season and continued all the way until 2011 when Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs took turns battering defenses. While Brown doesn’t roll in to defenses as hard Jacobs used to, Wilson is the fastest to man the Lightning part of the backfield since Barber. Running back by committee with two backs can be a scary thing to a fantasy GM, but it’s better than when the committee is split three ways as the Giants did in 2008 with Derrick Ward, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.

The Giants currently have a lot of unknowns behind this year’s version of Thunder and Lightning. Ryan Torain has never been able to make it through an NFL season healthy and Da’Rel Scott and Michael Cox are going to be battling it out on special teams to make the roster. The lack of an experienced proven commodity as a third running back is a concern as a fan of the Giants. As a fantasy GM I look at that as a plus for both Wilson and Brown. I expect the Giants to look for an experienced running back after teams make their cuts, but I don’t expect the Giants plans to change much unless Wilson or Brown don’t perform well in the preseason.

The biggest thing to happen to the Giants’ running backs fantasy potential so far in the preseason was when fullback Henry Hynoski went down to a knee injury. Without going into the numbers and really breaking down statistically how important Hynoski was to the Giants running backs last year, I think we can all agree that the Giants’ backs find a lot more running room when Hynoski is in the lineup. Hynoski is expected back around Week 1, but these recovery timetables are averages and not everyone recovers as quickly. The Giants checking in on the recently released Vonta Leach shows how much they believe that a dominant fullback is a key to their running game.

While Leach will surely sign with a team that has more cap room, the Giants will focus on getting Hynoski ready for the season and hope that Bear Pascoecan do his best Hynoski impression. The Giants offensive line was bolstered by this year’s first-round pick Justin Pugh and the re-signing of Will Beattyand Kevin Boothe in the offseason. The age and overall effectiveness is a little bit of a concern when discussing long-time Giants David Diehl and Chris Snee, but their knowledge and seasoning should be assets. David Baas has been an average center, but is not the dynamic run-blocker and athlete the best running teams seem to have manning the position. Baas and Snee’s injuries also made finding a versatile young lineman a priority in this year’s draft. With the addition of Pugh and the stability that Beatty and Boothe provide, I expect the Giants to be better up front this year.

Factoring in a healthy Hakeem Nicks, a motivated Victor Cruz, and an emerging Rueben Randle in the passing game, the Giants should be facing less defenses featuring eight men in the box. The lack of having that safety in the box should mean more easy yards for whoever is toting the rock for the Giants. With Mike Pope coaching up Brandon Myers and Adrien Robinsonthe Giants’ tight ends should be able to help in the running game.

The outlook for the running game is dependent on so many factors that banking on previous success is not the easiest thing to do. With coaching changes, free agency and injuries fantasy fortunes can change from minute to minute. Luckily the Giants reliance on a balanced offense and Kevin Gilbride’s continued presence bode well for any Giants’ running back’s fantasy potential. I expect big things from David Wilson in the future, but not necessarily this year. I think Brown will be a forced handcuff for most GMs who draft Wilson, but I don’t expect him to take over the featured back role. When teams feature a running back by committee the better running back doesn’t necessarily become the better fantasy back and this could be the case for the Giants this year. I have Wilson ranked as my 18th overall Fantasy running back in non-keeper, non PPR, and conventional scoring leagues as of right now while I have Brown down in the late 30s.

Wilson will be drafted anywhere from the low end of the third round to the fifth round in most 12-team conventional scoring leagues. Brown will be drafted as a handcuff after the 10th round based on all the information currently available. Brown may end up outscoring Wilson this year, but Wilson has way too much potential to not be looked at as RB2 material with upside. I personally don’t believe that you must draft a running back’s handcuff as it is a negative way to look at the fantasy draft. I only draft a handcuff if the value of the player’s potential is greater than the available players at the spot I am drafting him. If I don’t draft two running backs early and need to fill my RB2 spot in the fifth round I will be more than happy to come away with Wilson.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on Friday June 14th, 2013.

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