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Episode 056 Fantasy Football Bob Harris

Episode 056: The Fantasy Coach Podcast
Fantasy Football, Heavy Metal Music, and Life
Featuring: Bob Harris (@footballdiehard) of Football Die Hards (SiriusXM Radio)

Bob Harris SiriusXM

Show Rundown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know our guest:  We get to know a little about how (FSWA Hall of Famer) Bob Harris got into Fantasy Football.  We also discuss how the industry has grown and how he has grown with it.  Lastly, we touch on the future of Fantasy Football.
  • Music:  Bob and I talk about his love of musicianship and how his tastes turned to the heavier side of the dial.  We also touch on how my home town had a hand in the Thrash Metal Movement of the early 80s.  I am just a little jealous that Bob was able to see the Maynard Birthday Show.

 

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Episode 024: Week One NFL DFS With Renee Miller

Episode 024: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Week One NFL DFS

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week one of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.  We discuss how the vagaries of week one of the first week of the NFL change the way we normally approach setting up our lineups.  We specifically talk about Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas, Frank Gore, Shaun Hill, LeSean McCoy, Alshon Jeffrey, Michael Floyd, Michael Crabtree and Rob Gronkowski.

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

 

Thank Yous For Episode 024:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week one of the NFL season.  Make sure you check back in the next few days as I will have a bunch of links to her latest articles.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

 

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Episode 016: Fantasy Football J.J. Zachariason

Episode 016: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Quarterback Strategy

Featuring J.J. Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) of numberFire

JJ Zachariason
About My Guest:  JJ is the Editor-In-Chief at numberFire.com and author of The Late Round Quarterback, an e-book that dives into the strategic side of fantasy football. Prior to joining numberFire, JJ worked with the team at Pro Football Focus, and he still contributes at Rotoworld.com. He’s a Pittsburgh native currently living in Charlotte, North Carolina, and has a collection of over 70 jerseys.

Episode Summary:  JJ and I talk about his meteoric rise in the fantasy football community and how taking a chance and writing a book put him on a path to getting paid for what he loves to do.  We also manage to squeeze some fantasy football goodness in there, as we talk about the fantasy football quarterback position and where to find value.

 

Episode Breakdown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know our guest
  • The big three at Quarterback in fantasy football 2014
  • Which QB can crash the Big 3 Party? Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles
  • How deep is the legitimate QB1 field this year? Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger?
  • How important is QB consistency?
  • Which rookie QB could be fantasy football relevant sooner rather than later? Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater?
  • Which round does the LateRoundQB himself feel comfortable in drafting a QB?
  • The Coach’s Office:  3 Questions for our guest.
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 014:  I want to thank JJ for coming on the podcast and giving me more insight into his theories on streaming and when to target a quarterback in a draft.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

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Episode 011: Fantasy Football Salvatore Stefanile

Episode 011: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition: Two Quarterback Leagues

Featuring Salvatore Stefanile (@2QBFFB) SportableNFL

 

Salvatore Stefanile joins me to clown around and talk some Fantasy Football.

Salvatore Stefanile joins me to clown around and talk some Fantasy Football.

About My Guest: “Salvatore Stefanile, the winner of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series in 2013, is a big proponent of the 2-QB fantasy football movement . You can find his 2-QB musings at XNSports.com and on Twitter @2QBFFB. He’s also the content manager for Sportable — your place for interactive, bite-sized football news and fantasy football resources.” Articles and Posts referenced in the Podcast:

2-QB draft project for Sportable:  http://www.sportable.is/?c17889/fantasy-football/sportable-2-qb-draft-recap/  

http://www.sportable.is/?t17889/tag/sportable-2-qb-draft/

Recent 2-QB ADP (goes over some draft strategies): http://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/2-qb-fantasy-football-adp-post-2014-nfl-draft-edition/

                                                                                               http://www.xnsports.com/2014/07/06/look-quarterbacks-drafted-2-qb-fantasy-football-mocks-2014/

Top 250 overall 2-QB rankings: http://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/top-250-overall-2-qb-fantasy-football-redraft-rankings/

Tiered QB rankings for 2-QB leagues: http://www.xnsports.com/2014/06/23/tiered-qb-rankings-2-qb-fantasy-football-leagues-june/

Primer on 2-QB leagues: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47389/404/the-two-qb-mindset

Fanium Fantasy Football: http://splash.fanium.com/

Episode Summary:  Sal and I discuss all of his current work as well as get to know everything about SportableNFL.  We delve into two quarterback leagues Vs. traditional leagues as well as strategy and specific player targets.  We may or may not discuss the movies Heavyweights, Good Burger and Youngblood.

Episode Breakdown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know Salvatore Stefanile and find out where all of his work can be found on the internet.
  • 2QB Vs. Tradional Fantasy Football Leagues and how the strategy differs.
  • Where’s the drop off for the top scoring QB’s this year?
  • What RB’s and WR’s should be looked at in the first two rounds of 2QB Fantasy Football Drafts?
  • How important is the tight end position in 2QB leagues?
  • Which QB2 in the current rankings has a chance to be a top 8 QB in Fantasy Football?
  • Which QB3 should we target as a bye week fill in/ trade piece?
  • Some 2QB Daily Fantasy Talk
  • Outro

 

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thanks For Episode 011:  I want to thank the guru of two quarterback fantasy football, Salvatore Stefanile, (@2QBFFB) for coming on The Fantasy Coach Podcast and enlightening me and my audience on the nuances and strategies that go into preparing for a two quarterback draft.  

I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

 

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Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank.  While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season.  Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value.  The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position.  This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season.  It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season.  Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks.  Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together.  While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey.  Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type.  In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers.  There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

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The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU.  While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC.  Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues.  The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year.  Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two.  I think the continued presence  of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year.  I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool.  He can score when ever he touches the ball.  He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions.  The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season.  The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out.  If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense.  Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher.  His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build.  Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary.  He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.)  and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey.  This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson.  I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case.  If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season.  He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season.  I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4.  If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

 

 

 

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Fantasy Football-No Absolute Truths

Early August is a dangerous time for the casual fantasy football player.  The calendar page flips and draft dates start being thrown around in a never ending email stream.  While checking their kid’s play date schedules they check their favorite fantasy pundit’s twitter page.  They coast in and out of twitter conversations and check the occasional blog post.  They see a few experts agree with an upside potential of a fantasy running back and never think to check back before their draft.  It’s for these types of GMs that I write this warning.

STAY DILIGENT!

These casual GMs may have spied some great fantasy minds talking about how Montee Ball was a touchdown machine in college and will be a favorite of Peyton Manning.  They tuck this information away and immediately put Montee Ball at the top of their rookie running back chart and never hear about the weight that Ronnie Hillman gained in the off-season, or his excellent start to training camp.

There’s a reason that fantasy “experts” make the right choices during drafts.  They have all the information available.  They follow the beat writers.  They follow the film guys. (www.footballguys.com or www.ProFootballFocus.com)  They follow the the stats and metrics guys. (www.RotoViz.com or www.numberfire.com)  They also take all the views of the trusted opinion guys and make their own conclusions based on the strength of the arguments for and against certain players. (there are so many that I won’t mention anyone by name.)

Jake Plummer

I think it helps me in fantasy football that I am a skeptical person at heart.  I wasn’t always this way.  I was as gullible as they came when I was younger.  If you came up to me on the street and told me that you were a football expert and believed that Jake Plummer was the next great fantasy quarterback, I may have believed you. (Stranger on the street or ESPN the magazine, what’s the difference.)  Slowly over the years I have become more and more wary of people who offer free advise.

Calvin Johnson

You can never have an absolute “truth” in fantasy football.  If you don’t believe me, please don’t read any further.  I may ruin some of your preconceived notions.  I may have to spoil the fact that there’s no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy or even that rich Prince in Nigeria trying to wire you money.  The “truth” that fantasy experts advertise is a conclusion based on many, many factors that if they all align will see itself play out.  This year we have the closest things to “truths” at the top of every positional ranking.  Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Jimmy Graham are all the odds on favorites to top their categories in fantasy scoring.  If any or all weren’t to finish at the top of their category it would surprise me, but I wouldn’t lose a night of sleep over it. (Unless I owned all of them!)

For example, while I was looking back at last year’s Rotoworld draft rankings for my long standing standard scoring league I realized that they had Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson as their 11th and 12th rated running backs in that particular scoring system.  Do I blame them?  Absolutely not.  A lot of people were scared off of Peterson after the knee injury, while others were skeptical of Lynch with an unsettled quarterback situation.  Imagine if I had picked at 12 in a snake draft and Calvin Johnson had gone in his customary top 7 spot.  I would have had Lynch and Peterson at the 1-2 turn there for the taking.  Would I have pulled the trigger in that scenario?  Who knows, but it makes me feel good to know that those types of things play out every year.

As Dick Vermeil said,”If you don’t invest very much, then defeat doesn’t hurt very much and winning is not very exciting.”

Invest the time this year and see all the angles of the bigger picture.  Take it all in and form your own opinions using every scrap of available information. Whether it’s playing the late round quarterback game, or getting Drew Brees at all costs, it doesn’t matter.  As long as you know all the factors to the equation.

 

 

 

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Fantasy Football 2012 Post Season Awards

After a long and grueling season, it is now time for Coach Dennis to hand out his awards for unique and completely fabricated categories.

The Least Sexy Pick of the Year 

Marshawn Lynch

Winner: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA)

On draft day you would probably heard a lot of people say good pick as you put Marshawn’s name on the board.  Not great, but good is the moral of this story.  No one was super excited about drafting Lynch with an unknown commodity starting at QB in 2012.  The smart GMs saw the late season matchups and knew the offense would run on Marshawn slipping into “Beast Mode” if the Seahawks were to reach their potential.  Marshawn put up ten 100 yard rushing days and 12 total touchdowns during the season.  His biggest games came at the most important times for fantasy GMs.  Weeks 13 through 16 Lynch put up huge numbers carrying GMs into the playoffs, and onto the winners stand.  Lynch averaged 109.75 yards rushing and 1.75 touchdowns during the most critical weeks of the year, earning him a Post Season award from yours truly, and a place in the hearts of Fantasy GMs around the country.

The Dennis Green “They are what we thought they were!” Award

Dennis Green

Winner: Michael Turner (RB-ATL)

The entire world was ready for Michael Turner to fall off the list of must start running backs, and he did not disappoint.  The talking heads on TV and even the guy at your draft that shows up with a draft guide printed in April all knew to stay away from this aging former fantasy stud.  His decline in production was a perfect storm of factors for the Atlanta Falcons.  The team was finally full of healthy weapons all over the field, and was moving more to a pass first offense, which did not bode well for the old war horse.  The continued maturation of Jacquizz Rogers was just another nail into the coffin.  While Turner did produce 11 combined touchdowns, he only totaled 800 yards rushing while only topping 20 carries once.

Same Team, Same Stats, Different Guy

Winner: Steven Ridley (RB-NE)

Stevan Ridley’s 1,263 rushing yards were well beyond Benjarvis Green-Ellis’s last few seasons in New England, but the 12 touchdowns was exactly what you could count on from the law-firm in his final two years in New England.  Ridley was a steal as a top notch Running Back 2 in most leagues as he topped 100 yards four times and was the consistent goal line back piling up 12 touchdowns (when he was not in Belichek’s doghouse for fumbles).  While he may not be Adrian Peterson, he is definitely the most talented back to feature for the Patriots since Corey Dillon.

Different Team, Same Stats, Same Guy

Peyton Manning BroncosPeyton Manning Colts

Winner: Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)

Peyton Manning was a steal in most drafts.  He would have easily been the fourth or fifth quarterback taken if not for his career-threatening injury coupled with an address change to Denver.  Manning was snapped up in the middle rounds in most drafts and threw 37 touchdowns, placing him third in the league while also eclipsing his totals during his previous two healthy years (2009-2010).  He also threw for over 4,600 yards without breaking a sweat and seemingly getting better as the season progressed.  Manning single-handedly made Demaryious Thomas and Eric Decker a dynamic receiving duo.  Having these receivers and a solid running game, Manning’s renaissance is not a one-year wonder and he should return to the top of draft boards in 2013.

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Darren McFadden

Winner: Darren McFadden (RB-OAK)

While fantasy owners constantly salivate over Darren McFadden’s potential and raw skills, he has proven again and again that he cannot hold up over the course of a season.  This year proved no different as he missed four games due to constant foot and ankle injuries.  Even when he was in the lineup, he had trouble adapting to a new zone read scheme.  McFadden registered 700 yards rushing and just three touchdowns after being a late first or early second round pick.  Two of his three 100 yard rushing days were against the Chiefs – enough said.  I know there are a lot of you reading this cringing like a girlfriend constantly scorned, but I am willing to bet that you will probably draft him again next year based on potential.

Worst Deep Round Sleeper

Winner: Titus Young (WR-DET)

No matter where you looked, everyone and their mother were touting Lions wide receiver Titus Young, the second-year pro out of Boise State.  I was almost swept up into the madness until I realized that he had more personal fouls during his rookie season than the entire New York Giants defense.  Not exactly the calm, cool under pressure young receiver I wanted for my team, to say the least.  With Calvin Johnson constantly seeing double coverage, Young was supposed to reap the rewards.  Young was expected to almost double his 2011 stats of 600 yards and 6 touchdowns, but instead he cut that in half as he regressed into a banished draft bust.  Young is the first receiver I have ever seen who purposely lined up in the wrong position, as well as ran the wrong routes in protest of how he was being used in the Lions’ offense.  I believe everyone deserves a second chance, but I think his will come on the waiver wire both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues.

Most Valuable Surgeon

Winner: Dr. James Andrews

Dr. James Andrews

Dr. Andrews once again worked his magic as Adrian Peterson came back from a torn MCL and ACL to come within 9 yards of breaking the all-time single season rushing record.  Peterson was only held in check by his own coaching staff as he was eased back into his workhorse role.  He was a man amongst boys from Week 7 through Week 17 as he averaged 159.8 yards rushing and just over a touchdown per game.  Peterson was nothing short of phenomenal as he carried many fantasy owners to the Promised Land.

(Honorable Mentions must go out to the surgeons for Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning as they returned to their old selves sooner than anyone could have anticipated.)

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