Ryan Braun – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Ryan Braun Problems

Well folks, we are headed into the All Star break and it’s time to take stock of the first half of the fantasy baseball season. I am currently leading or in second place in all of my leagues, but I am in no mood to celebrate.

Why, you ask?

His name is Ryan Braun.

I was unlucky enough to pick third or fourth in four different leagues this year, and you guessed it…I drafted Braun across the board. I reassured myself with every draft that Braun is a beast. “Don’t worry Dennis, even if anything comes of this PED stuff it won’t be until after the season,” I said to myself. My mutterings became like white noise in the background as I was walking out of drafts with an ACME sized anvil hanging over my head.

You are probably saying, “Hey buddy you knew the risk. Why should I listen to you complain?”

You don’t have to listen. You can go back to your cozy beds filled with the Miguel Cabrera’s of the world. I’ll just be tossing some of my worthless Barry Bonds 1987 Fleer Rookie cards on the fire and reminiscing about times gone by when fantasy owners didn’t have to also be labor lawyers in their spare time.

It’s true that I knew the risk when I drafted him, but who can blame me? I’m a gambler at heart and I have the ATM receipts from Atlantic City to prove it (NOTE: I seem to have misplaced the massive deposit slips I promised my wife though). I saw a mark and I took it down. How could I turn down the clear cut 2nd or 3rd best player at #3 or #4 overall in every draft? It’s like Braun and I were destined to be together.

That last part scares me a little.

The entire reason I stopped doing fantasy baseball back in the late 1990’s in the first place was because of guys like Bret Boone and Barry Bonds. Drafting back then was like playing a dart toss carnival game at the Jersey shore. You would show up to a draft and toss a dart and hope the balloon (player) was filled with juice. Your eighth round pick might break records that were set during the Deadball era. They were wild times.

Now you have to check in Vegas’s black book as well as your draft day cheat sheets just to make a pick. (I think only NBA players are in that actually – see Charles Barkley and Antoine Walker).

I wouldn’t even be sweating the Biogenesis stuff so much if Braun could just play. When he was playing early in the season he wasn’t himself, but he was still very useful. Since then he’s been on every list possible. The disabled list, the bereavement list, the cheating-lying scumbag list. Oh wait that list hasn’t been announced yet, but has been leaked more times than if Pam and Tommy did another sex tape.

Braun has his injured thumb for an excuse, but it’s his head I’m worried about. How do you stare down a 90 MPH fastball when you know your entire legacy and life’s work hangs in the balance of an ongoing investigation? If it is proven that he cheated, Braun will face the biggest backlash the sport has ever seen, hands down. The common fan will never forgive Braun for going after his specimen collector Dino Laurenzi, Jr at a press conference when he happened to win his appeal.

I am more worried about the Brewers than my own fantasy baseball teams. It’s not like they can whip out a Yankee-sized checkbook and replace him. The way their farm system looks makes Mets’ fans pump out their chests. A season-long suspension might single-handedly kill baseball in Milwaukee. The Brewers chose to make him the face of the franchise. He rewarded them with an MVP and they rewarded him with the biggest contract in their history. Now he may kill their playoff hopes for the next ten years.

Don’t cry for me Argentina! Oops, I meant fantasy baseball gods. My fantasy teams won’t be in as bad a shape as the Brewers if Braun gets suspended. I made back-up plans. I even made back-up plans for my back-up plans and should at least keep my head above water. I traded for Chris Davis in the leagues that I could get him early and at a reasonable rate to make up for the homeruns and RBIs. I traded for Desmond Jennings and Starling Marte to make up for the stolen bases. I even took a shot on Jason Heyward using an ultimate buy low package where I sent two waiver wire pick-ups for Cole Hamels and Heyward.

I may be able to fill out a line-up, but I was much happier when Braun was stashed on my disabled list and I didn’t have to think about him every day (like the Yankees with Alex Rodriguez rehabbing in Tampa). Now he’s on the bereavement list and I can’t even clear a bench spot. In my three daily lineup change leagues that has become a big problem.

Braun is in fantasy roster limbo. He could come back after the break and play like an angel delivering my team to a championship while he fights to defend his name. He could be a demon that gets cast off of my roster when his appeal goes down in flames. Or he could just hang around my bench popping his head in and out of my lineup from day to day resembling a shell of his former self.

Either way, the torture of fielding terrible trade offers for Braun has put me in my own little circle of hell. You wouldn’t believe the names that have filled my inbox. At this point I would be happy if I got offered B.J. Upton for Ryan Braun. Not that I would take it. It would just be nice to be offered someone that was actually drafted instead of picked up off the waiver wire the day before.

This article originally appeared at www.fantasyjudgment.com as part of an ongoing diary series.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups: Trade Pieces or Trash?

When going through a long season of fantasy baseball you inevitably will receive bad trade offers. Some trade offers are more offensive than others. None more so than when someone offers you a recent waiver wire pickup as a key piece in a trade. There are exceptions to this rule (big time prospects like Yasiel Puig and Wil Myers, or guys who were prematurely dropped such as Jason Heyward or Josh Hamilton), but most of the time you will be offered names like Jedd Lowrie and James Loney. (Sigh!)

I feel like sites should have built-in controls where GMs can’t offer waiver pick ups with out a two week waiting period. Maybe a little disclaimer next to the players name that says he was picked up on this date. Like a freshness label on a bottle of beer. It would be like a little scarlet letter that would eventually wear off after certain amount of time. This would relieve a lot of aggravation as well as help inexperienced GMs save a little face.

While two weeks might be a nice start, the real waiting period for seeing if a waiver pick up is truly a trade asset is right around six weeks. The six week sample size is enough to weed out the occasional hot stretch for a veteran hitter and soft schedule for a pitcher. For example Vernon Wells started out on fire (.300 6 HR and .910 OPS in April) and was widely picked up in 12 and 14 team leagues after week 2. He has since gone back to his late career ways (hitting around .230 and popping out constantly) and can be seen on your local waiver wires. While experienced fantasy baseball players knew this was just a streaking player other GMs actually tried to capitalize on his hot start and offer him in trades around their leagues.

The subsequent message board and social media ridicule after a bad trade is offered should be enough to discourage naive GMs, but some seem to be immune to these tactics. They plug away week after week picking up the Jhoulys Chacins and Ricky Nolascos of the fantasy baseball world and think they can turn them into Cole Hamels and Doug Fisters through trades. God bless their tiny little brains and their efforts, but something has to be done.

I try to chalk it up to naivete or ignorance, but stupidity shouldn’t be ruled out. The topper of these bad offers was recently brought up during a Twitter conversation with @fantasytrade411, when he was venting about a GM actually offering him someone he had just dropped! I can’t say this has ever happened to me, but if I did receive an offer for one of my cast offs a day after dropping him my eyebrows may jump clear off my forehead.

Even with prized prospects I don’t generally offer them in trades until they have played at least a few weeks in the bigs. I don’t want to burn any bridges with other GMs if the prospect doesn’t at least stay in the bigs for an extended showing. Plus I would rather know if I am in possession of a stud before I sell a player. With rookies the six week waiting period would be ideal. You need four to six weeks to see if the league makes adjustments to the player or if the player is able to make adjustments to the league. (Didi Gregorius a perfect example) Jackie Bradley Jr. had many GMs jumping the gun when he got off to a fast start with the Red Sox in April after he surprisingly made the big club out of spring training. If you were unlucky enough to trade for him, chalk it up to a lesson learned.

You can never sell too high for a recent call up, and Puig is a perfect example. His value couldn’t be higher right now and selling is a must. I recently made a trade that netted me Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. My side of the trade was centered around Puig, and included Kyle Seager, Patrick Corbin, the versatile Todd Frazier, and Justin Masterson. While my haul may seem a little one sided, it is not the most I have seen traded for the Cuban phenom. I have seen dinged up stars such as Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp, and even Roto golden boy Ryan Braun sent packing for Puig. While all of these scenarios are slightly ludicrous and reactionary, you can see the value people see in Puig’s unique talents.

Veterans picked up off the waiver wire are a completely different story. Most GMs like myself will pick up and ride a streaking player, but never think about trading him because the value just wouldn’t be there. It takes a few months of a veteran playing well above his career numbers before he attains any trade value. James Loney, Jedd Lowrie, and Michael Young have all had some hot stretches, but you wouldn’t see me trying to trade for any of them. I might lose my mind completely if I get offered Matt Joyce for Jason Heyward again in my deep league.

(I need at least another month of Heyward struggles before I entertain that one.)

If I offered another GM the hot hitting Adam Lind in a trade right now, what would he be worth? He’s 29 and has hit 35 homers in a season before, but he has always been unable to consistently hit lefties. He most likely won’t be able to touch his 2009 numbers again in his career. Even though he is hitting .350 and will hit over 25 homers he would barely fetch me a light hitting Eric Hosmer in a trade right now.

The real swings in trade value come when former top prospects seem to turn a corner. They can go from waiver wire riders to trade untouchables in less than half a season. Carlos Gomez and Chris Davis flipped the switch last year, and Dominic Brown seems to have unleashed his full potential this year. Just a few weeks into the season Brown could be seen on the waiver wire, but with his unbelievable May you would be lucky to get him in a trade for Jay Bruce. Could you imagine those words being said on draft day? “I’ll trade you Jay Bruce for Dominic Brown.”

I can’t wait to see what Wil Myers will command in a trade if he goes deep in his first game with the Rays. Without even taking a swing I can already see GMs trading Rios or Cruz for him. If he gets off to a fast start it could be Beltran or Holiday. And if he even comes close to Puig’s start the sky is the limit.

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball. I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about. I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised. Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year. My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria. Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte. My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy. But my closers have been a mixed bag. Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame. I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire. In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester. I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft. Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base. I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two. I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since. That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft. I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes. I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft. Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot. He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed). I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Being honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses. Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results. Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression. I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded. Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Weeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day. Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps. I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game. I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire. I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman. After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out. Right? Right???