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Episode 057: Fantasy Football with Matt Harmon

Episode 057: The Fantasy Coach PodcastMatt Harmon- Reception Perception
Fantasy Football: Talking Wide Receivers using Reception Perception
Featuring: Matt Harmon(@MattHarmon_BYB) FootballGuys, TheBackyardBanter

About My Guest:  Matt Harmon is 23 years old and has only been writing about fantasy football for a little over a year and he has already come up with a very unique (and possibly groundbreaking) way of looking at the wide receiver position with his Reception Perception Methodology.
Twitter Bio:  Football Writer | Staff | creator | Optimum Scouting | Over-posting dog pictures | We are only at the beginning

Episode Rundown:

Links to articles mentioned by Matt on the podcast:
Amari Cooper (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_nfldraft_amaricooper15)
Dorial Green-Beckham (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_nfldraft_dorialgreen-beckham15).
Michael Crabtree (http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-impending-free-agent-michael-crabtree.html)
Sammy Watkins (http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-sammy-watkins-and-cordarrelle-patterson.html)
Brian Quick (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_brianquickwr14)
Devin Smith (http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-devin-smith-and-the-value-of-a-trump-card-fbg.html)

A special thank you to my good friend C-Quel who provided the amazing intro and closing beat to The Fantasy Coach Podcast.  Also a big thank you to RevoLabels.com for sponsoring the podcast and don’t forget to use the coupon code “coachesser” for 10% off of your purchase.
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Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Week seven of the NFL season saw, not one Buffalo Bills Running Back go down, but two!  So with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson out this week the burning question becomes who is higher in the week 8 rankings between Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown?  Does it matter as they face a stout Jets run defense?  Of course it matters, it’s fantasy football!

C J Spiller

 

Dare we start Darren McFadden against the Browns?  How high does Sammy Watkins climb in the rankings?  How far down the rankings did Matt Ryan slide?  All these questions can be answered when you check out my early fantasy football week 8 rankings.

Make sure you check back before you set your lineups as the rankings will change as information becomes available.


Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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Episode 019: Fantasy Football Nick Mensio

Episode 019: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football Edition:  Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Strategy

Featuring: Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) Rotoworld.com

Nick Mensio
About My Guest: Nick Mensio is a football writer for Rotoworld.com. The 2014 NFL season marks his third with Rotoworld.

Episode Summary:  Nick and I discuss the wide receiver position in fantasy football.  We discuss if Calvin Johnson will be dethroned as the number one fantasy wide receiver and even talk a little about Miles Austin’s Hamstrings.  (Just a little)

Episode Rundown:

  • Intro
  • Get to know Nick a little.
  • The Big Six wide receivers?
  • Discuss options at the position in rounds 1-9.
  • Discuss the rookie class.
  • Discuss Late round targets.
  • The Coach’s Office, Brought to you by RevoLabels.com
  • Outro

You can Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Thank Yous For Episode 019:  I want to thank Nick for coming on the podcast and discussing the wide receiver position.  After tonight’s episode I may have to go out and buy more stock in Dez Bryant.   I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

RevoLabels.com

NFL Mock Draft 2014

NFL Mock Draft 2014

NFL Draft

Well it’s time for me to throw my hat into the ring of NFL Draft prognosticators.  While there are many, many Draft analysts that I have my utmost respect for, I always like to put my thoughts on paper and see how it shakes out versus the pros when it comes time for the actual draft.  I am going to mock the first three rounds based on perceived needs and glaring situations where value would dictate the pick. (Value to me is where I rank the individual player)  I am not going to include trades and therefore some QB picks may look funny because they will more than likely go earlier because of some trade scenario.

Round 1
Pick Overall Team
1 1 Houston Texans

Jadeveon Clowney- I’ve been waiting to see Clowney be drafted first overall since he was in high school.  Truly a once in generation talent that can now team up with J.J. Watt to make one of the best defensive line tandems since Reggie White and Jerome Brown.

2 2 St. Louis Rams (from Washington)

Greg Robinson- I have a feeling St. Louis won’t stay here and make this pick, but if they do Robinson makes a lot of sense as he could play RT for a few years and then slide over to the left when he’s coached up at the NFL level.  Even if he completely bombs as an NFL tackle he would be unbelievable (like Larry Allen) at Guard.
3 3 Jacksonville Jaguars

Sammy Watkins-  I’m a big believer in Watkins talent and believe that he SHOULD be the pick here, but you never know what an NFL team is thinking.  They need to get more talented across their roster and look like they want to ground and pound by signing Toby Gerhart to take over at RB.  I think Robinson is a great fit here as well.
4 4 Cleveland Browns

Taylor Lewan- This pick is a tough one for me.  If they didn’t pick Mingo and invest in Kruger last year then Khalil Mack would be hands down the pick, but alas they have those two already.  Mitchell Schwartz has a long injury history (Back issues) and struggled early last year.  They could bump Schwartz down to guard and have two bookends at tackle in Thomas and Lewan that could rival any tackle tandem in the league.
5 5 Oakland Raiders

Khalil Mack- The Raiders need to take a young quarterback in this draft, but Reggie Mckenzie needs to protect his job and put a quality product on the field THIS year.  A young QB at this pick with this much talent on the board at other positions would be a job killer.
6 6 Atlanta Falcons

Jake Matthews- The Falcons would be extremely lucky to have Matthews fall to them here.  I do think there could be a scenario where the Rams trade back and take Matthews before this could take place.
7 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans- Evans is going to be picked by this pick one way or another.  I can definitely see another team trading up to acquire this unique talent at this spot in the draft.  For me, this is the spot where the tier in this draft drops off.
8 8 Minnesota Vikings

Blake Bortles- My buddy Arif Hasan has to be happy about getting a new young arm to groom behind Matt Cassel. Hey if Bortles doesn’t work out you will at least get to see pictures of his girlfriend plastered all over the Twin Cities.
9 9 Buffalo Bills

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix-  This pick is tough.  With everyone who went off the board before this spot Clinton-Dix became the right pick here.  I felt it was too early for Ebron and any offensive lineman here would be a reach with Clinton-Dix on the board. Most teams need three capable safeties now a days and Clinton-Dix’s talent is top notch.
10 10 Detroit Lions

Darqueze Dennard- Dennard is my pick at corner for the Lions, but they could easily like Gilbert more.  I think he is ready to step in and play right away and the Lions do face the Packers and Bears a total of four times every year.
11 11 Tennessee Titans

C. J. Mosley- The Titans are going to a 3-4 and they will need all the athletic-playmaking linebackers that they can get their hands on.  Mosley is a little undersized, but should become a fan favorite for the Titans.  I also would have liked Anthony Barr here.
12 12 New York Giants

Zach Martin- The rebuilding of the Offensive-line is officially on for the G-Men.  Martin is a Pro Bowl guard fresh out of the box and a tough as nails smart Right Tackle if need be.  With Chris Snee’s hips being a question mark, Martin’s versatility will be paramount for the Giants.  I see no scenario where Mike Evans or Taylor Lewan make it to this pick.
13 13 St. Louis Rams

Aaron Donald-His talent changes plans here for the Rams.  You put him next to either of the Rams sack hunting defensive ends and an offensive line will have it’s hands full.  Make a strength stronger is what I would do if Donald was available here.
14 14 Chicago Bears

Timmy Jernigan- Why does it feel like I’m making this pick because I still wish Tommie Frazier was in Chicago?  Even if it’s because I see a little of the old healthy Frazier in Jernigan, it still doesn’t change the fact that the Bears need to keep adding talent to that defensive line that was gashed over and over again last season.
15 15 Pittsburgh Steelers

Justin Gilbert- The Steelers need to get younger in the secondary and Gilbert is fast and has the ideal build to be a top corner in the NFL.  It’s not a sexy pick, but it’s a necessary pick.
16 16 Dallas Cowboys

Odell Beckham Jr.-  obviously this doesn’t fit an immediate need for the Cowboys, but I think this is where he will be picked.  Ideally the Cowboys would trade back from this spot if Donald, Jernigan, and Mosley were all off the board.
17 17 Baltimore Ravens

Morgan Moses- The Ravens offensive line was abysmal last season.  Michael Oher has since left in free agency and the Right Tackle spot is currently manned by Ricky Wagner who looked out classed when he played last season.  I think Yanda would be able to take the VERY talented Moses under his wing and make the right side of the Ravens line a strength.
18 18 New York Jets

Eric Ebron- I’m not in love with this pick for the Jets because I really like Jeff Cumberland, but they could make quite a tandem for whoever ends up taking the snaps under center.  Ebron is a big time talent, but the Jets could really use an upgrade at the wide receiver position so if Beckham slips he could be the pick.
19 19 Miami Dolphins

Kyle Fuller- Corner is not a glaring need for the Dolphins, but Fuller would be a very good value here.  Fuller has excellent closing speed in coverage and seemed to play the trail technique at a pro level while in college.  The Dolphins need a Right Tackle, but it would have been a reach here.
20 20 Arizona Cardinals

Derek Carr- The Cardinals took Ryan Lindley as a developmental quarterback a few years ago, but Carr gives them a quarterback that is used to having a defense tell him where to throw the ball and being able to put the ball where he wants it.  Carr is not a finished product and will do well to watch Palmer keep the chains moving with traffic all around him.
21 21 Green Bay Packers

Anthony Barr- It’s hard for me the believe that Anthony Barr would last this long in the draft, but in this scenario he does.  Barr is a little raw as far his pass rushing skills, but his athleticism and first step are top notch.  There would be many meetings at the QB for Barr and Matthews if this actually happened.
22 22 Philadelphia Eagles

Calvin Pryor- The Eagles are desperate for a safety falls right in their lap.  With Pryor manning the back of their defense the Eagles can be even more aggressive to try and get the ball back in the hands of their dynamic offense.

23 23 Kansas City Chiefs

Marqise Lee-  The Chiefs need a better compliment to Dwayne Bowe then Donnie Avery and they get it in Lee.  I think Lee will make a lot of fans in Kansas City with his personality and his skills.  Last year was tough on Lee, as he fell off from the previous year, but he has all the skills needed to be a star.
24 24 Cincinnati Bengals

Kony Ealy- The departure of Michael Johnson and the fact that Margus Hunt isn’t ready to be an NFL starter makes this the pick for the Bengals.
25 25 San Diego Chargers

Jeremiah Attaochu- The Chargers have a big need at Outside Linebacker and Attaochu is going to be a very good outside linebacker in the NFL.  He’s a little raw, but man when he locks on the ball carrier or quarterback he explodes.  I wouldn’t be surprised by a trade back here with a team trying to trade up to this spot to take a quarterback.
26 26 Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)

Johnny Manziel- In this scenario the Browns would be able to get Manziel 22 picks after most people have them taking him.  I doubt he makes it this far in the draft, because believe it or not, he IS really good at football.  He’s a ton of fun to watch and man would it be cool to watch him scramble around and then throw it down field for Greg little to drop it.  Just kidding.
27 27 New Orleans Saints

Dee Ford-  Call me crazy but Dee Ford playing Outside Linebacker in a Ryan defense seems pretty exciting.  Ford would bring a new dimension to this defense and could be key in getting the ball back in Drew Brees’ hands quicker.
28 28 Carolina Panthers

Brandin Cooks-  Carolina is weaponless when it comes to the wide receiver position.  Cooks immediately upgrades the talent level of the Panthers’ wide receiver corps and should be able to contribute right away either from the slot or the outside.
29 29 New England Patriots

Ra’Shede Hageman- Hageman is a beast and probably will go higher on draft day, but in this scenario he doesn’t become a great fit until this spot in the draft.  Hageman will make Chandler Jones that much better by taking up blockers and wreaking havoc.
30 30 San Francisco 49ers

Bradley Roby- Roby is a bit of a project at corner, but he has all the tools to be a great corner in the NFL.  He has the perfect build, great speed and leaping ability and yet Jared Abbrederis of Wisconsin made him look like fool this season.  His tape screams coach me up, but his workouts scream pick me.
31 31 Denver Broncos

Stephon Tuitt- Tuitt can play defensive end or defensive tackle for the Denver Broncos and would be a great pick down here.  With Derek Wolfe’s health being a concern I think the Broncos have to address the defensive line early in the draft.
32 32 Seattle Seahawks

Xavier Su’a-Filo- The Seahawks have the luxury of just tweaking an already stacked roster.  The glaring weakness last year was the right side of the offensive line and Su’a-Filo would be an upgrade over J.R. Sweezy.  He can even bump out to tackle and hold his own.
Round 2 will be posted May 2nd – feel free to make fun of the picks in the comment section below. Wow did I make a mistake with the first pass at this mock draft by leaving Aaron Donald off the board.

Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank.  While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season.  Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value.  The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position.  This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season.  It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season.  Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks.  Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together.  While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey.  Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type.  In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers.  There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

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The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU.  While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC.  Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues.  The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year.  Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two.  I think the continued presence  of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year.  I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool.  He can score when ever he touches the ball.  He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions.  The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season.  The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out.  If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense.  Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher.  His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build.  Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary.  He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.)  and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey.  This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson.  I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case.  If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season.  He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season.  I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4.  If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

 

 

 

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