June 2013 – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Evan Longoria Injured

Well another season and another nagging injury for Evan Longoria. This time it’s plantar factitious that has felled the power hitting third baseman of the Tampa Bay Rays. If you drafted Longoria you probably had a back up plan in mind all along, but if you didn’t don’t go looking for any rusty knives just yet, I promise we can get through this.

Where do we start?

First let’s look at our own bench.

Do we have any guys that picked up 3B eligibility while we weren’t looking?

Edwin Encarnacion recently became 3B eligible in Yahoo leagues and you may have never noticed. If so lucky you, plug him in over there and quickly go grab Adam Lind or Eric Hosmer and you’re set for a few weeks.

How about Matt Carpenter? Has he been scoring you runs at 2B and keeping guys that are starting to heat up on the bench? Well slide him over to 3B and plug in the rejuvenated Rickie Weeks and roll with it for a while.

If you’re like me and traded away your insurance policy already, then we are going to need to look at the waiver wire.

1) Anthony Rendon- The kid has played like top draft pick he is after his second call up to the bigs and is still only owned in 37% of Yahoo Leagues. His 2B eligibility may pay dividends down the line as you can move him around your infield.

2) Jose Iglesias- For a player that was supposed to be all glove and no bat he sure as hell looks to be the real deal. His hits aren’t exactly laser show quality, but you can get a nice batting average bump while he’s hot. It won’t last forever, but it may help for a few weeks.

3) Chris Johnson- Another guy that will really only help with one category as he is still hitting over .320. His power numbers won’t help much, but if the Braves lineup starts hitting a little more he could get a nice bump.

4-5) Trevor Plouffe and Mike Moustakas- Plouffe and Moustakas were late round guys that were looking to take the next step towards big time major leaguer this year. Plouffe has been injured and has been in and out of the line-up, but when he has been available he looks to have a lot of fantasy upside. His swing has a lot of power potential and if the middle of the Twins lineup continues to hit he could pick up nice RBI numbers. Moustakas has been a head ache most of the year and has only recently looked to be making strides. His average has creeped up above the .210 mark and he has been driving the ball better. He finally homered yesterday after not doing so in forever. His runs and RBI’s have been missing though because of the struggles of everyone else in the Royals line-up. He could have a huge second half and be a nice utility player for you when Longoria recovers.

6) Some names coming off the DL soon that could be nice backups to Longoria the rest of the year are Jedd Gyorko and Brett Lawrie. Gyorko has shown he is major league ready before injuring his groin and is valuable with his 2B-3B eligibility. Lawrie has been injury plagued as well as ineffective to start the year, and some confidence in the minors may be just what the doctor ordered.

For deeper leagues I would look to Alberto Callaspo and Matt Dominguez to fill in for a short time. Maybe even Lonnie Chisenhall if he gets the AB’s.

Is Eli Manning Elite? From a Fantasy Football Perspective

Is Eli Manning elite? Ask a New York Giants fan and you will get an emphatic “Yes!” as they describe the Super Bowl winning drives and calm nerves displayed in every big spot. Magician-like throws to David Tyree and Mario Manningham are described in high definition quality while smiles spread across their faces. As John Malkovic in “Rounders” said,”The kid has got alligator blood.” Great quarterbacks are measured by championships and not by numbers on a page.

Win a road playoff game at Lambeau Field? Check!

Win a Super Bowl against an undefeated team of destiny? Check!

Face the New York Media day in and day out and never embarrass the franchise? Check!

You ask a fantasy football owner the same question and you get a completely different reaction. Most fantasy owners wouldn’t be very comfortable coming out of a draft this year with Eli Manning as their QB1 unless they were in a 2 QB league. Manning looked to be heading up the fantasy QB ladder after his fine 2011 season, but followed that up with an average 2012. He almost reached the magical 5,000 passing yard milestone in 2011 but fell 67 yards short. He threw 29 touchdowns against 16 interceptions and looked to be in a tier just below the top 3 fantasy QBs heading into 2012. His average draft position was at an all-time high last year as he was drafted as the eighth overall QB in fantasy drafts. Unfortunately Manning didn’t even reach 4000 yards, but still managed 26 touch downs in 2012.

While Manning’s disappointing 2012 in fantasy production may have left a bad taste in some mouths, I am not adverse at taking a second bite of the apple. I don’t believe his career is headed in the wrong direction. I really see him as being in his prime and just needing the pieces around him to play at a higher level. He still has the arm strength, he still has the alligator blood and now he has a healthy Hakeem Nicks. Not only does he have Nicks, but he has a motivated Cruz, an emerging Rueben Randle and a reliable Brandon Myers.

With opposing defenses being forced to defend every inch of the field again I believe Eli will put up excellent numbers. I project him for 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns. While I would love to think that Eli could challenge 5,000 yards again, I have to be realistic. Most QBs who throw for 5,000 yards get a lot of added yardage from dumping the ball off to running backs in the passing game. Look at what Darren Sproles has done for Drew Brees and what his absence has taken away from Phillip Rivers. Getting a feel for how to be patient and feel the defense on screen passes is an art. Wilson has the talent to be a weapon, but I need to see his feel for the passing game before I count on 500 or more yards from him. If Wilson ends up with the 280 yards receiving that I project for him this year than that puts Eli in the 4,200-4,300 zone.

I have Eli Manning as my last QB1 in a 12 team conventional scoring league. Many sites have Russell Wilson ranked ahead of Eli at this point, but I still feel Seattle is a run first team that won’t ask Wilson to do too much in his second year. Manning will more than likely be drafted from rounds 7 to 10 in 12 team leagues this year. Sometimes as a last resort QB1 and sometimes as a quality backup to a running QB like RG III or Cam Newton. While he may not be drafted high, Eli can still lead your team to the fantasy championship. He just might need a little help from your other positions. Eli is not in my top 10 fantasy quarterbacks as of right now, but he is the only QB I want with the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter of a big game in real life! Ernie Accorsi had the vision and the guts. Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride had the patience. And we as Giant fans are reaping the benefits.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on June 21st, 2013

Fantasy Baseball Retreads

Garbage Picking

When I was growing up all the kids in the neighborhood couldn’t wait until bulk garbage day. We would jump on our bikes and circle the streets looking for a find. There were streets that didn’t even get a first look either because of the enormous effort it took to pedal up the hill or because of trash that even the dump was embarrassed to have. Other streets were treasure troves that you literally had to be the first to scope out. Weight sets, Bicycles, crossbows, (that’s right I know someone that got a cross-bow from the trash) and even entire baseball card collections would be put to the curb.

I was a big collector even at an early age and would search for old pennants, baseball cards, and any and all sports memorabilia. I once got an entire Ebbets field collection from a neighbor who’s wife decided to clean out the garage while he went fishing. She tossed score books from both the 47 and 55 world series and even a Duke Snider signed Brooklyn Dodgers hat. I couldn’t wait to of course ruin it by playing actual baseball in it. I can still remember wondering how these people could throw out such useful stuff. Some of these things like the exercise equipment still had the price-tags on them.

My mind still works the same way when I stare at the waiver wire in my leagues. Owners hate to be reminded of their bad decisions and having one burn a hole in your bench is tough thing to deal with. Its the same as seeing your clean laundry hanging off of that Body By Jake workout contraption. I look at Rickie Weeks and think of how proud the owner was on draft day thinking he had a 20/20 second-baseman who he could pencil in week in and week out. Mike Moustakas catches the corner of my eye as I scan over the names on the waiver wire and I think of how that GM took the strategy of waiting on a third-baseman and thinking he got 25-30 homers with nice RBI potential way late int he draft. Then there is the young duo of Eric Hosmer and Brandon Belt. Owners thought they were going to get some sneaky steals along with power that eventually had to break out. It had to be this year didn’t it. I mean Hosmer was a top draft pick with big time power prospects and Belt tore up Spring training pitching this year.

Well it’s June 26th and most if not all of these guys are on the waiver wire. I can still see the price-tags, just like on the exercise equipment I used to see on bulk day. Their price tags may read mid round draft pick, but now they are sitting there for free. If you are in a league that starts a middle-infield position or corner-infield position I would really look to pick up all these guys. Just because they were someone else’s trash doesn’t mean they cant be your treasure.

Weeks has put in a ton of time just working on his hitting mechanics and it is paying off. Rickie Weeks over the last 30 days is hitting .393 with a .1228 OPS and 5 homers. That’s in only 56 AB’s as he is in a short term platoon with Scooter Gennett at the moment. Do you really think Scooter and his .220 BA is going to keep Weeks on the bench going forward? I thought not. I would even play Weeks in my utility slot while this hot streak is going. He may not be stealing bases like he has in the past, but with Hart out indefinitely, A-Ram possibly on the move, and Braun’s status very much unclear, Weeks could be a huge part of the middle of this line-up.

All I heard the first month is” Moustakas is going to hit.” It sounded like Herman Edwards giving his support to a shaky kicker. I was still buying in on Moustakas in my deeper leagues until it felt like I was buying a stock of a company that was being looted. The 0 fors piled up and the homers all but disappeared. Well here we are in late June and Moustakas has begun to show signs he may come out of it. Over the last two weeks he is hitting .343 and even starting to get his doubles. The doubles always come first, and then the homers should start to flow.(at least I hope) I noticed this early in the year when Kyle Seager was battling to get out of his early season slump. He had some multi-hit games with a bunch of doubles and before you knew it he was back at respectability. Moustakas is a guy I would jump on if I was hurting at a corner infield spot.

Brandon Belt obviously has a love/hate relationship with Bruce Bochy. One night he looks to be back to being a big part of the line-up batting sixth and the next he is batting eighth behind Andres Torres. Belt has hit .340 over the last two weeks and even contributed a stolen base. The only problem is he is being jerked around constantly and that can be a huge headache for any owner. I like Belt a lot, but until Bochy actually recommits to him. Prop 8 has been shot down as I write this so maybe Bochy can finally step up to the plate. I am steering clear for the time being unless its an NL only league and in those he is already owned.

Eric Hosmer is really turning a corner. I wasn’t a believer when his batting average started to tick up because the power was just not there. Well his stroke is now producing extra base hits and his legs are stealing bases. Over the last two weeks Hosmer is hitting .294 with a .927 OPS and 3 HR’s and 3 SB’s. The power and speed combo is what attracted everyone to Hosmer in the first place, so with it finally showing up its time to think about him again. I’m buying Hosmer in almost all deeper formats. I don’t think he deserves a roster spot yet in 10 team leagues that don’t start a corner infielder or utility, but another week of this and I’m buying there as well.

Grab your bikes (or smart phones) and go scour your neighborhood (waiver-wire) for your trash treasure.

Fantasy League Commissioner Wanted

You don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone. While Cinderella’s early 90’s power ballad may have made me queasy at the time, truer words were truly never spoken. I had no idea how lucky I was that my buddy from age five had been our fantasy football league commissioner for all these years. He was truly unbiased and thoughtful in every situation. Whether it was rule changes, votes for new members, or controversial trades, he always put the integrity of the league first. Over these last 15 years, I now realize I have taken him for granted. I never knew how much he improved my quality of life until I started venturing out into new leagues recently.

I feel like all three major sports leagues in the U.S. could take some notes from my old commissioner. Roger Goodell with the NFL has put himself front and center in all things and only cares about his own legacy. Bud Selig has made MLB an old buddy-buddy league that is full of underhanded dealings and biased rulings. David Stern walks around believing that he made the NBA a must see league, even though it was the league that Magic, Bird and Jordan made. I’m not talking about Gary Bettman because, well this isn’t Canada. Is it?

I have joined a bunch of different leagues the last few years and found the commissioners have closely resembled at least one of the big three. In one league, rules were changed after the draft that clearly benefited the commissioner and his cronies. His Bud Selig impression was not appreciated and I was quickly a one and done league champ. The worst situation was when I joined a dynasty fantasy football league that was clearly run by a Roger Goodell clone. Every correspondence was rank with arrogance. The straw that broke the camel’s back was when he traded for Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant and gave up Eli Manning and Michael Turner. I died a little inside when I emailed the entire league to ask for some back up with my protests to this trade-rape, and found no backers. When I pressed one league member about why he didn’t protest the trade he said, “It wouldn’t matter if we protested, the commissioner has complete autonomy over the league and will beat down any challenges in the ranks.”

Situations and priorities change, and so does life. Three kids later, an ever growing workload, and free time that would only be envied by an indentured servant has made it impossible for me to take on the responsibility of being a league commissioner. I feel like I would be unbiased, fair, and decent, but alas I am not available for the job.

The ones that are available sadly don’t measure up. Think about it…who in their mid-thirties to early forties has time to run fantasy leagues? Single guys in their thirties or forties have the time, but do we really want them in charge? They are probably single for a reason. They have either never had their stuff together long enough to impress a mate or have been found wanting by the opposite sex (or same sex) when given the chance. Whether they lied, cheated, or stole none of these traits make for a good commissioner. Ideally, you want your commissioner to be like the dad from Growing Pains, not Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons (Worst Commissioner Ever).

My real frustration comes from the laziness that has permeated some of these leagues. Instead of having an honest commissioner make fair decisions on trades, I have been forced to deal with league votes. How can a league vote ever be fair to a team in a playoff position? It’s like having ten angry jurors deciding your fate. Teams ahead of you have the bias of not wanting you to catch them. Teams below you want to catch up to you and will not be happy if you strengthen your squad. Then there is the team you are playing that week that has the ultimate bias.

Recently I made a trade that had to be put to a league vote. The GM that I was playing that week told me he was voting against the trade solely out of spite. The trade would have given me a little more power and he didn’t want me to make up a disadvantage in homeruns that week. I had to sit on my hands and hope everyone made a fair and unbiased decision. It was gut-wrenching, but it eventually passed. (P.S. Chris Davis hit a two-run homerun on Sunday for me to tie in homeruns and give me the RBI category)

So if you are reading this and feel you are a man among men, please step up to the plate and be a league commissioner. Fantasy leagues need you, I need you, and more importantly, America needs you!

This article also appears at www.FantasyJudgment.com as part of a weekly series called Coach Esser’s Diary.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups: Trade Pieces or Trash?

When going through a long season of fantasy baseball you inevitably will receive bad trade offers. Some trade offers are more offensive than others. None more so than when someone offers you a recent waiver wire pickup as a key piece in a trade. There are exceptions to this rule (big time prospects like Yasiel Puig and Wil Myers, or guys who were prematurely dropped such as Jason Heyward or Josh Hamilton), but most of the time you will be offered names like Jedd Lowrie and James Loney. (Sigh!)

I feel like sites should have built-in controls where GMs can’t offer waiver pick ups with out a two week waiting period. Maybe a little disclaimer next to the players name that says he was picked up on this date. Like a freshness label on a bottle of beer. It would be like a little scarlet letter that would eventually wear off after certain amount of time. This would relieve a lot of aggravation as well as help inexperienced GMs save a little face.

While two weeks might be a nice start, the real waiting period for seeing if a waiver pick up is truly a trade asset is right around six weeks. The six week sample size is enough to weed out the occasional hot stretch for a veteran hitter and soft schedule for a pitcher. For example Vernon Wells started out on fire (.300 6 HR and .910 OPS in April) and was widely picked up in 12 and 14 team leagues after week 2. He has since gone back to his late career ways (hitting around .230 and popping out constantly) and can be seen on your local waiver wires. While experienced fantasy baseball players knew this was just a streaking player other GMs actually tried to capitalize on his hot start and offer him in trades around their leagues.

The subsequent message board and social media ridicule after a bad trade is offered should be enough to discourage naive GMs, but some seem to be immune to these tactics. They plug away week after week picking up the Jhoulys Chacins and Ricky Nolascos of the fantasy baseball world and think they can turn them into Cole Hamels and Doug Fisters through trades. God bless their tiny little brains and their efforts, but something has to be done.

I try to chalk it up to naivete or ignorance, but stupidity shouldn’t be ruled out. The topper of these bad offers was recently brought up during a Twitter conversation with @fantasytrade411, when he was venting about a GM actually offering him someone he had just dropped! I can’t say this has ever happened to me, but if I did receive an offer for one of my cast offs a day after dropping him my eyebrows may jump clear off my forehead.

Even with prized prospects I don’t generally offer them in trades until they have played at least a few weeks in the bigs. I don’t want to burn any bridges with other GMs if the prospect doesn’t at least stay in the bigs for an extended showing. Plus I would rather know if I am in possession of a stud before I sell a player. With rookies the six week waiting period would be ideal. You need four to six weeks to see if the league makes adjustments to the player or if the player is able to make adjustments to the league. (Didi Gregorius a perfect example) Jackie Bradley Jr. had many GMs jumping the gun when he got off to a fast start with the Red Sox in April after he surprisingly made the big club out of spring training. If you were unlucky enough to trade for him, chalk it up to a lesson learned.

You can never sell too high for a recent call up, and Puig is a perfect example. His value couldn’t be higher right now and selling is a must. I recently made a trade that netted me Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. My side of the trade was centered around Puig, and included Kyle Seager, Patrick Corbin, the versatile Todd Frazier, and Justin Masterson. While my haul may seem a little one sided, it is not the most I have seen traded for the Cuban phenom. I have seen dinged up stars such as Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp, and even Roto golden boy Ryan Braun sent packing for Puig. While all of these scenarios are slightly ludicrous and reactionary, you can see the value people see in Puig’s unique talents.

Veterans picked up off the waiver wire are a completely different story. Most GMs like myself will pick up and ride a streaking player, but never think about trading him because the value just wouldn’t be there. It takes a few months of a veteran playing well above his career numbers before he attains any trade value. James Loney, Jedd Lowrie, and Michael Young have all had some hot stretches, but you wouldn’t see me trying to trade for any of them. I might lose my mind completely if I get offered Matt Joyce for Jason Heyward again in my deep league.

(I need at least another month of Heyward struggles before I entertain that one.)

If I offered another GM the hot hitting Adam Lind in a trade right now, what would he be worth? He’s 29 and has hit 35 homers in a season before, but he has always been unable to consistently hit lefties. He most likely won’t be able to touch his 2009 numbers again in his career. Even though he is hitting .350 and will hit over 25 homers he would barely fetch me a light hitting Eric Hosmer in a trade right now.

The real swings in trade value come when former top prospects seem to turn a corner. They can go from waiver wire riders to trade untouchables in less than half a season. Carlos Gomez and Chris Davis flipped the switch last year, and Dominic Brown seems to have unleashed his full potential this year. Just a few weeks into the season Brown could be seen on the waiver wire, but with his unbelievable May you would be lucky to get him in a trade for Jay Bruce. Could you imagine those words being said on draft day? “I’ll trade you Jay Bruce for Dominic Brown.”

I can’t wait to see what Wil Myers will command in a trade if he goes deep in his first game with the Rays. Without even taking a swing I can already see GMs trading Rios or Cruz for him. If he gets off to a fast start it could be Beltran or Holiday. And if he even comes close to Puig’s start the sky is the limit.

The New York Giants’ latest version of “Thunder and Lightning”
Gallery
The New York Giants’ latest version of “Thunder and Lightning”

Fantasy Football

The New York Giants’ latest version of “Thunder and Lightning”

The New York Giants have a great tradition at the running back position. From Joe Morris to Ahmad Bradshaw the position has been both solid on the field and in the world of fantasy football. Some Giants running backs stood taller among their peers than others. Morris was arguably the best fantasy football running back from 1985 to 1986 as he posted 280.8 points and 264.9 points during those two monster seasons, but measured up at only 5-foot-7. In 1985, Morris finished third in overall fantasy points at running back to brand names Marcus Allen and Roger Craig. In 1986 Morris was the last Giants running back to finish the season as the No. 1 fantasy running back as he scored more fantasy points than the likes of Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, and Curt Warner.

Bradshaw has been solid, but not spectacular during his tenure as injuries to his ankles and feet and a focus on running back by committee have hindered his overall numbers. This year the Giants backfield is in flux as Bradshaw will now be running the ball for the Indianapolis Colts and the two holdovers are relatively inexperienced.

David Wilson, the New York Giants’ first-round pick in 2012, has been given the first chance at being the starter, according to reports. Opportunity governs value as much as ability when it comes to fantasy football. There is no use debating if a player can rush for 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns if he is only going to get half the carries. With the departure of Bradshaw, Wilson’s stock can be seen as on the rise, while the presence of touchdown vulture Andre Brown must temper expectations. Wilson excites Giants’ fans as well as fantasy football pros with his breakaway speed and athletic prowess, but his reputation for fumbling and limited experience in the passing game are causes for concern. If he lives up to his C.J. Spiller comparisons fantasy football GMs who are lucky enough to own him will be doing back flips right along with him this year. If he is in a true time share without goal-line carries or ends up on the sidelines because of fumbles and poor pass protection than all of our excitement will be for naught.

Andre Brown is almost as green as Wilson despite being five years older. After being drafted in the fourth round out of N.C. State, Brown blew out his Achilles tendon during his first summer with the Giants. It has taken Brown a long time to stick on an NFL roster after his initial injury, but it looks like he found a home in New York. The Giants thought enough of him to bring him back into the fold on their Super Bowl run in 2011 and stood by him after he was suspended in the early part of 2012. Brown showed he can be an effective feature back when he was forced to carry the load against the Carolina Panther last season. He ran 20 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns when the Giants needed him the most. While he is not as explosive as he was in college, he is a better running back than when he came into the league. He shows good feet in the hole, while showing excellent vision. He also runs with a patient hard-nosed style that makes for a great compliment to the explosive Wilson.

The Giants have a nice recent history with using the running back by committee approach. Thunder and Lightning was coined when the Giants featured Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber during the 2000 season and continued all the way until 2011 when Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs took turns battering defenses. While Brown doesn’t roll in to defenses as hard Jacobs used to, Wilson is the fastest to man the Lightning part of the backfield since Barber. Running back by committee with two backs can be a scary thing to a fantasy GM, but it’s better than when the committee is split three ways as the Giants did in 2008 with Derrick Ward, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.

The Giants currently have a lot of unknowns behind this year’s version of Thunder and Lightning. Ryan Torain has never been able to make it through an NFL season healthy and Da’Rel Scott and Michael Cox are going to be battling it out on special teams to make the roster. The lack of an experienced proven commodity as a third running back is a concern as a fan of the Giants. As a fantasy GM I look at that as a plus for both Wilson and Brown. I expect the Giants to look for an experienced running back after teams make their cuts, but I don’t expect the Giants plans to change much unless Wilson or Brown don’t perform well in the preseason.

The biggest thing to happen to the Giants’ running backs fantasy potential so far in the preseason was when fullback Henry Hynoski went down to a knee injury. Without going into the numbers and really breaking down statistically how important Hynoski was to the Giants running backs last year, I think we can all agree that the Giants’ backs find a lot more running room when Hynoski is in the lineup. Hynoski is expected back around Week 1, but these recovery timetables are averages and not everyone recovers as quickly. The Giants checking in on the recently released Vonta Leach shows how much they believe that a dominant fullback is a key to their running game.

While Leach will surely sign with a team that has more cap room, the Giants will focus on getting Hynoski ready for the season and hope that Bear Pascoecan do his best Hynoski impression. The Giants offensive line was bolstered by this year’s first-round pick Justin Pugh and the re-signing of Will Beattyand Kevin Boothe in the offseason. The age and overall effectiveness is a little bit of a concern when discussing long-time Giants David Diehl and Chris Snee, but their knowledge and seasoning should be assets. David Baas has been an average center, but is not the dynamic run-blocker and athlete the best running teams seem to have manning the position. Baas and Snee’s injuries also made finding a versatile young lineman a priority in this year’s draft. With the addition of Pugh and the stability that Beatty and Boothe provide, I expect the Giants to be better up front this year.

Factoring in a healthy Hakeem Nicks, a motivated Victor Cruz, and an emerging Rueben Randle in the passing game, the Giants should be facing less defenses featuring eight men in the box. The lack of having that safety in the box should mean more easy yards for whoever is toting the rock for the Giants. With Mike Pope coaching up Brandon Myers and Adrien Robinsonthe Giants’ tight ends should be able to help in the running game.

The outlook for the running game is dependent on so many factors that banking on previous success is not the easiest thing to do. With coaching changes, free agency and injuries fantasy fortunes can change from minute to minute. Luckily the Giants reliance on a balanced offense and Kevin Gilbride’s continued presence bode well for any Giants’ running back’s fantasy potential. I expect big things from David Wilson in the future, but not necessarily this year. I think Brown will be a forced handcuff for most GMs who draft Wilson, but I don’t expect him to take over the featured back role. When teams feature a running back by committee the better running back doesn’t necessarily become the better fantasy back and this could be the case for the Giants this year. I have Wilson ranked as my 18th overall Fantasy running back in non-keeper, non PPR, and conventional scoring leagues as of right now while I have Brown down in the late 30s.

Wilson will be drafted anywhere from the low end of the third round to the fifth round in most 12-team conventional scoring leagues. Brown will be drafted as a handcuff after the 10th round based on all the information currently available. Brown may end up outscoring Wilson this year, but Wilson has way too much potential to not be looked at as RB2 material with upside. I personally don’t believe that you must draft a running back’s handcuff as it is a negative way to look at the fantasy draft. I only draft a handcuff if the value of the player’s potential is greater than the available players at the spot I am drafting him. If I don’t draft two running backs early and need to fill my RB2 spot in the fifth round I will be more than happy to come away with Wilson.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on Friday June 14th, 2013.

Don’t Set It and Forget It

Fantasy baseball is not a “set it and forget it” endeavor. You don’t draft a team and send it out into the world without having to constantly tinker with it. You may have three different players play second base for you in any given month while also having a different frontline starter based on that particular week’s matchups. If we listed all the closers that will inevitably be jumping in and out of our rosters we could be here all day.

Setting your lineup is a lot like playing the stock market. You can only ignore the trends for so long until you miss the boat. Whether it be buying, selling, dropping or picking up players, you have to look at all the available information in a timely manner. Being aware of the vital statistics can make a stock or a free agent a must buy or a player on your roster an instant drop.

Sometimes a player is just getting extremely lucky and his statistics are heading for a correction. I am trying to avoid stepping into these bear-traps, but it can be difficult to differentiate between luck and player turning a corner. You may get burned by not checking his BAPIP (batting average on balls in play) or his FB/GB statistics. Luckily, there are so many resources for today’s fantasy GM’s that weren’t available just a few years ago. I can go to a multitude of sites to see all the vital statistics and more while even the free apps from sites like Yahoo break down the basic statistics over time periods. I can notice a player is hot while watching a series on TV, check my phone and see he is hitting .350 this month and then go to any site to see if his power is coming as well.

Too many GM’s treat their lineups like they are mutual funds or pensions. They buy in and either through laziness or ineptitude let them twist in the wind. While they spend their nights catching up on Breaking Bad and old reruns of South Park (Editor’s Note: there is nothing wrong with watching either of these shows), their lineups go through ups and downs not seen since Enron. You offer them a trade and they literally have to check the site to see who is on their roster.

I, on the other hand, tend to be overly attentive, almost to the detriment of my free time (hmmm, maybe that is why I’m only on Season 2 of Breaking Bad). I tend to tinker constantly as I check my lineups key statistics and try and maximize every week in my head to head league. I read every article possible on would-be call-ups so that I can try to solve some of my team’s issues without trying to trade. If I am lagging early in the week in stolen bases I will put Starling Marte or Brett Gardner into my lineup. If I am behind in runs scored, then Matt Carpenter will start at almost any position. Power is tougher to find coming off the bench, but I may have just recently found a few gems.

The fact that my league is position specific for outfield has been a real challenge. Right field has been considerably shallow and I have been forced to play Carpenter or Adrian Gonzalez there while I have Corey Hart stashed on the DL. If I played Gonzalez in RF, then I suffer at first base, and vice-versa. Then along came a Cuban defector named Yasiel Puig. You may have heard of him. He has exploded on the scene and solidified my line-up with his power and speed.

I know what you’re saying – hold your horses buddy. It’s okay to get excited, but let’s not pretend he’s the second coming. But what if he is the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? It would be like adding a top 10 pick in the middle of the season for nothing. How can you not get over-excited? I know I am having trouble tempering my excitement and evaluating his current worth.

He could be a blip on the screen of my season or he could be guy to put me over the top. We will all have to wait and see. Many of my colleagues have been saying to sell high as we have all seen players do this before only to crash back down to earth, or worse, to the minors. I even polled a few fantasy gurus to see what Puig was being traded for and names like Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton were mentioned. I would jump at the chance to acquire any of those guys, but that is not what is being offered to me at this point. On the other hand, I am playing the wait and see game. I am doing the old “I came with nothing and I’ll leave with nothing if God will’s it.” I just don’t know if I can live with trading him for a marginal player if he goes on to play at even half of what he is currently showing.

There is a ton of risk with what I am doing as the Dodgers looked to have a full outfield with Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier when the year began. Crawford and Kemp are currently on the DL, and Ethier has struggled for most of the season including getting benched before Puig was called up. I am banking on Puig making it impossible to send him back down with his play on the field. He was signed to a huge free agent contract so he is not one of these rookies whose service time is an issue and he has been setting records with every base hit. He is electrifying a fan base that needed to wake up and probably hasn’t been this excited about a player since Fernandomania was running wild 30 years ago. He also has gone from batting leadoff to batting fourth after only a week. He has already arguably shown more potential in one week in the big leagues then Ethier has in seven years with the Dodgers.

Puig is not the only streaking player who has joined my team recently. Adam Lind’s current form couldn’t be ignored as he hit over .400 over the last month and is even forcing his way into the lineup against lefties. When the Blue Jays were forced to give up the DH in National League parks they decided to play Edwin Encarnacion at third base so that they could play Lind at first base to keep his hot bat in the lineup. I know he probably won’t stay hot for long, but if I can get a productive month out of him then I am ahead of the game. If there was a timeline for my lineup at first base it would read Gonzalez-Carpenter-Loney-and now Lind. It might not be as easy as drafting Prince Fielder and trotting him out week after week, but if I end up winning the title it will be that much sweeter with all the hard work I put in.

This article originally was featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are a Fantasy Football Dynamic Duo

The importance of drafting a Wide Receiver high in fantasy drafts has never been lower. With the NFL making rule changes every time you turn around. The defense has never been more at a disadvantage. Quarterbacks are free to pick apart toothless secondaries and rack up numbers that have never been seen in the modern game, while defenses have to play Roger Goodell’s version of flag football. The game is safer for the receiver, but almost impossible for a defensive back.

The reason I have the wide receiver position as a low draft priority is not because of a lack of production, but the exact opposite. There is production everywhere. Wide receivers can step up off the streets and became productive fantasy receivers. Just look at Danario Alexander and Cecil Shorts III last year. Alexander was a balky knee free agent who found his way into many fantasy lineups while Shorts III was a small school (Mount Union) after thought that played at an elite level for a number of games last year. Alexander averaged 92.5 yards and .833 TDs from week 9 to week 14 when he became the only reliable target for Phillip Rivers in San Diego. Shorts III averaged 90 yards and .625 TDs from weeks 7 through 15 when he finally became a full time starter for the Jaguars. For comparisons sake A J Green who finished as one of the top fantasy wide receivers last year and is projected in my top 6 this year averaged 84.375 yards and .6875 TDs over the course of 16 games. It just goes to show you that production can come from anywhere in the draft or on the waiver wire when it comes to the wide receiver position.

NFL teams used to have one fantasy relevant receiver, but now some teams feature as many as three high-round draftable wide receivers. The addition ofWes Welker in Denver makes for a great competition for targets between him, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. While many teams feature fantasy stud bookends like the Giants, some teams still sadly have no sure fire fantasy starters such as the NY Jets, and the Oakland Raiders, but these are the exceptions to the rule.

I currently only have six wide receivers as my clear cut WR1s and 20 others as low-end WR1 to WR2 status. That’s 26 wide receivers who are virtually interchangeable. There are draft tiers within the 26, but overall it’s hard to separate the masses. I have never seen a list that screamed at me to wait more than this year’s wide receivers list. I have a few wide receivers that could make a charge up to top 3 statuses with improved play either by themselves or by their quarterbacks. Larry Fitzgerald could make the leap back up to elite if Carson Palmer resembles the guy we knew in Cincinnati and falls in love with Fitzgerald as a target. While Dez Bryant closed out last season like a man on fire and could continue his maturation into becoming a top 3 fantasy wide receiver. Last, but certainly not least, is Roto-darling Julio Jones. Jones has been trumpeted as the next Calvin Johnson for two years now, but the presence of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez always make his targets and production less than expected. (Not to mention his balky hamstrings)

We, as Giants fans, are living in a golden age of fantasy wide receiver relevance. We have two wide receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruzwho could easily play up to WR1 status and at worst are excellent WR2 options. The only draw-back for a lot of us is “Giant fan draft bias” in a lot of our leagues. What I mean by “Giant fan draft bias” is we may have to reach a little during the draft to get our Giants’ wide receivers as there are usually a few fans of the Giants in our local in-person drafted leagues. Reaching a little for Hakeem Nicks over say Vincent Jackson is not a big deal. Nicks or Jackson could and should play to WR1 status and you might as well have a Giant to root for doubly on Sundays. But taking Victor Cruz over Calvin Johnson may be a mortal sin. I have to check on that, but I’m pretty sure.

Giant fan fantasy GMs have had a long drought at the wide receiver position, as far as having a clear cut WR1 to draft and root for. Plaxico Burress was a high end WR2 in his heyday with the Giants while Steve Smith was a WR1 in PPR leagues during the 2009 season. Amani Toomer had a nice run as a WR2 from 1999 to 2003 as he averaged 1,169 yards receiving and 6.5 touchdowns, but only threatened WR1 status once. Toomer’s 2002 season of 1,343 yards receiving and 8 TDs was the standard of New York Giants fantasy receiver production before the current dynamic duo.

Just to prove a point let’s have a trivia question.

Question: Which decade saw more Giants’ 1,000-yard wide receivers (and who were they) the ’80s or ’90s? Answer provided at the bottom.

While Burress could be counted on for touchdowns and Smith for receptions, no one could combine the overall receiver skills that both Nicks and Cruz possess. They can both challenge the 100-reception plateau and should easily reach 1000 yards. They can score from anywhere on the field and both could make a run at the league lead in touchdowns. The emergence of Rueben Randle as a third receiver and the additions of Brandon Myers and Louis Murphy should also free up Nicks and Cruz to become even more valuable moving forward. Not to mention they are both vying for lucrative long term contracts.

Nicks played as mostly a decoy last year as foot and knee issues held up his production (692 yards and 3 TDs). Cruz was forced to carry the load and showed some inconsistency in his game as he had some drops (fourth in the league with 12) and frustrating play. Mike Francesa recently intimated that Cruz had lost a step while speaking on his radio show, but I did not see that when I watched the film. I saw a team that was not able to free up their weapon on enough occasions as Nicks was injured and Hixon was playing on two bad knees. Ramses Barden received the same attention from secondaries as he did in free-agency, none, when he was forced into the lineup. This lack of a secondary option forced Cruz into facing double and triple teams and bracket coverage in many games. Cruz and Nicks should be hungry as they are both in contract years and could push the Giants passing game to heights never before reached.

Not since Homer Jones during the 1967 season have the Giants had the No. 1 overall fantasy wide receiver. That drought could easily come to an end if the Giants fire on all cylinders this season. The best part is it could be Cruz or Nicks who makes the leap to league leader and we, as Giants’ fans and fantasy GMs, can reap the benefits. Barring injuries and contract holdouts I project Victor Cruz to post 1,280 receiving yards with 9 touchdowns and Hakeem Nicks to go for 1,330 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. I like both in the third to fourth round in most redraft formats. If you can get Nicks in the top of the fifth round count yourself lucky and ahead of the game as his injury history might see his stock fall.

You can follow me on twitter @coachesser or contact me on my Facebook page CoachEsser’s Playbook with any questions or comments. You can also go to my website, www.coachesser.com, to see my latest rankings and articles on fantasy sports. My first pre-season rankings will be up on July 1st as I wait for mini-camps and OTAs to come to a close.

Trivia Answer: The 1980s had two Giants receivers hit the 1,000-yard mark as Earnest Gray had 1,139 yards in 1983 and Lionel Manuel had 1,029 in 1988. Amani Toomer was the only Giant to catch passes for more than 1,000 yards during the 1990s when in 1999 he had 1,183 yards receiving.

This article originally appeared at www.BigBlueView.com on Friday June 7th, 2013

Don’t Drink The Sand

The perception of starting pitching depth on a fantasy baseball team is the same mirage that exists with respect to depth at running back in fantasy football leagues. You are always one pitch or one carry away from being in a bind. With pitchers, it could be age and frailty such as with Andy Pettitte and Jake Peavy. Or perhaps it is flawed mechanics that have caused your fantasy ace, Stephen Strasburg, to start drawing comparisons to Mark Prior. From forearm tightness to sore shoulders, fantasy GMs are constantly trying to avoid season-ending injuries to their starting pitchers. On the other hand, running backs are just a few fumbles or a lethal hit away from being relegated to the bench. The mere sight of your player on the week’s injury report will send many GM’s running to the waiver wire. In the end, GM’s who thought they had plenty of depth at the position realize how shallow their rosters really are.

Coming into this fantasy baseball season, the best advice I received was to grab as many quality starting pitchers as possible. Sure, draft the great position players early but make sure I stockpile as many arms as I could because you never know when injuries may occur. I heeded this advice throughout the season thus far and picked up additional quality starting pitching even though I thought I had sufficient depth at the position to start the year. I drafted Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Julio Teheran, Andy Pettitte, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren. I quickly dropped Hammel and Haren for Shelby Miller and Justin Masterson. I then dropped Pettitte for Patrick Corbin as I didn’t want another injury prone starter in my rotation.

We all knew Peavy was eventually going to be on the disabled list…we just didn’t know when. Drafting Peavy was the equivalent of drafting Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden in a fantasy football league. Doing either of these things requires you back them up with quality options. Peavy had been performing well up until his last two outings. I was relieved it was an injury (non-displaced rib fracture) and not ineffectiveness that caused his recent poor outings.

Well, the dreaded time has come for many fantasy owners including myself. While I lost Peavy to the DL, he was not alone. Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg and Brendon Morrow were also placed on the disabled list. Morrow’s DL stint is a blessing after the way he has pitched. But for Cueto, he just recently came back and started to look like his old self. However, Strasburg is the one that scares me the most. He was likely drafted very high and was counted on to perform at an almost Verlander/Kershaw level. That hasn’t happened up to date and now he is injured again. I’m pretty sure GM’s are cursing at themselves watching Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki tearing it up while Strasburg is on the mend.

I am happy to roll out my rotation week after week and try and weather this injury storm. I am reluctant to trade my pitching because this is what can happen. I may think I’m six deep at quality starters, but I’m always one pitch, batted ball, or slip in the shower away from combing the waiver wire.

This article was originally featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

Monthly Archives: June 2013