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NFC East Wide Receiver Movement

NFC East Free Agency and Wide Receiver Movement

Rueben Randle warms up.

New York Giants: The Giants let Hakeem Nicks walk this off season and brought back an old Super Bowl hero as a sort-of replacement. The Giants had no designs on keeping Hakeem Nicks in the fold so it came as no surprise when he signed a prove-it deal with the Indianapolis Colts. Nicks’ declining health and skills wore on the Giants’ brass and fans alike. His Fantasy Football stock is at an all-time low even being paired with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, in Andrew Luck.

The sort-of replacement is none other than Mario Manningham. The Giants former third-round pick is back after spending two injury-plagued years in San Francisco. While having Manningham back in the fold feels nice as a fan of the Giants, I don’t expect him to start or to be an asset in Fantasy Football next season. Instead of replacing Hakeem Nicks on the Giants’ roster he is essentially replacing Louis Murphy, who had a very forgettable tenure with Big Blue.

The Giants should and probably will look to fill the void Hakeem Nicks’ exit has created by starting Rueben Randle and getting Jerrel Jernigan more involved in the offense. I do look for the Giants to draft an outside wide receiver this year, and could even see them taking Mike Evans if he ever fell to them. If Evans doesn’t fall to the Giants at 12 there will be a lot of talent at the wide receiver position available at their slot in the second round. Davante Adams or Donte Moncrief would be excellent second round picks.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have had a quiet off season as they are right up against the cap and have done some foolish things with their money lately. While Dez Bryantdidn’t quite take the leap to 1B to Calvin Johnson’s 1A as a fantasy wide receiver as many thought he might, he did put up solid numbers last season. Ninety-three receptions for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, but did leave some fantasy owners wanting.

The lack of a clear cut second option in the passing game hurt Dez Bryant last season.Jason Witten was another year older, and slower, and Miles Austin once again spent most of the season rehabbing his forever-pulled hamstrings. The only bright spot was they appeared to hit on their third round pick in Terrance Williams from Baylor. Williams had 44 receptions for over 700 yards and 5 TD’s in a rookie campaign that saw him grow. Williams is definitely a player to keep on your radar as a potential wide receiver 3 in 12-team leagues next year. In fact, if he has a good offseason you should target him.

Philadelphia Eagles: Can I just say wow! I knew DeSean Jackson had a high salary cap number, but after the season he had last year I was fully expecting the Eagles to extend him or at least have him play it out. Well, in today’s NFL you never know. Don’t get me wrong I know Jackson is tough to deal with, I often compare him to some of the prima-donna strikers you see in the English Premier League, but I didn’t think they would let their second-best player walk.

With Jackson gone the Eagles will feature Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position and Zach Ertz at the tight end position. I don’t think Chip Kelly realizes how much ackson helped the Eagles last year with his ability to make a secondary respect his deep speed, but Kelly will find out quickly if teams are able to stack the box to try and stop LeSean McCoy.

Obviously Cooper and Maclin get a big jump in value with Jackson gone, but the one who may benefit the most is Ertz. Ertz quietly had a very nice rookie campaign as he caught 36 passes for 469 yards and 4 TD’s. Even with Brent Celek getting some of the targets from the tight end position I am moving Zach Ertz up my fantasy rankings. I currently have him 12th before the NFL Draft. Maclin’s return from injury could have been a nice buy-low, but with Jackson leaving you may have to pay a premium to see if Maclin’s knee is really healed. He is currently the 37th wide receiver going off the board in my Fantasy League Drafts. Cooper will be a wide receiver 4 next season with the same volatility he had this year. He’s the perfect guy to take in best ball leagues or to play when you really need a high ceiling play.

DeSean Jackson Signs With The Redskins

Washington Redskins: The Redskins last year featured Pierre Garcon and…..well no one. The thinking was Fred Davis would finally come into his own well…..that didn’t happen. (He is currently suspended from the league indefinitely, oh and making really terrible rap albums.) The Redskins decided to address this lopsidedness in free agency and have been very active in free agency. They signed David Gettis, the former promising wide receiver from the Carolina Panthers. They signed the versatile Andre Robertsfrom the Arizona Cardinals. Roberts can play inside or outside and has always been a bit under rated.

I thought the Redskins may have been done there and assumed Garcon would still get the lion’s share of targets and production, but low and behold Dan Snyder saw Jackson hitting the street and he pulled out that big check book. Jackson had a career year last season with the Eagles with 82 receptions for more than 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. His numbers will probably never come close to those again, but he can still be a useful fantasy wide receiver.

The Redskins’ new head coach, Jay Gruden, is a west coast offense disciple. He will use the tight end, Jordan Reed. He will get the ball out quickly to wide receivers that can run after the catch, Jackson and Garcon profile as excellent west coast wide receivers, and he will will stretch the field with built in deep shots. Gruden’s Bengals last season relied on the deep ball a little too much and I think he will get back to a more ball control offense in Washington. Garcon and Jackson are both wide receiver twos with this move, but with them also sharing the ball with the gifted Jordan Reed I move them down to the bottom of the wide receiver two list. Garcon still holds more value for me in PPR leagues and I would still be comfortable with him as a solid wide receiver two there.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, @Coachesser and connect with me on Facebook. You can also read all of my articles on everything fantasy at Coachesser.com.

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Seattle Mariners Future

Robinson Cano leads the Seattle Mariners

Robinson Cano Has A Lot To Smile About in Seattle

TheSeattle Mariners future is now folks.  I thought they were a year or two away just as recently as the beginning of spring training, but they are becoming a team that can not be overlooked on the field, or int he box score.

Oh the all important box score for the fantasy baseball player.  It used to be we, as fantasy baseball players and fanatics, would only check the Seattle box score when we either had King-Felix (Felix Hernandez) pitching that night or when we were facing him.  The only other time I may have caught myself checking the Mariners’ position players  is when I was completely injury ravaged and wanted to see who was actually alive and starting for them.

James Paxton Box Score

So that’s last night’s box score from the Mariners game.  Just glancing at it will let you know that James Paxton had a very good night.  This early in the season he more than likely didn’t pitch into the 9th inning so what ever he did he didn’t give up a run to a decent offensive baseball team in the Angels.  In reality if you watched the game you would have seen James Paxton look like one of the most dominant left handed starting pitchers to come a long in a long while.  His fastball was touching 98mph and his off speed stuff was almost unhitable after seeing that cheese.

The offensive performance was more of the early season same for these Mariners.  Abraham Almonte got on base a few times.  Brad Miller drove the ball hard when he wasn’t striking out (2 for 5 with 3 K’s last night.).  Robinson Cano continued to stay hot going 2 for 4 and Justin Smoak and Corey Hart provided some middle of the order power, both homering in the 9th inning.  Dustin Ackley couldn’t keep his hot streak alive as he was 0 for 4, but he has never looked more like the 2nd overall pick that he was then now.

This off season I have to admit I was a little obsessed with the Seattle Mariners.  I could not get enough news about the health of Taijuan Walker and the short stop battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin.  I was also targeting Hisashi Iwakuma in my Fantasy Baseball drafts because I would be getting a nice injury discount.  Walker seemed to be passing every hurdle without complaint as he rehabbed his sore shoulder and Brad Miller outmashed Nick Franklin in Spring Training to nail down the coveted short stop spot for the Mariners.

A Team Of Ifs

The Starting Rotation:  If each member of the starting rotation stays healthy and pitches up to their ceiling as players then the Mariners will have one of the best, if not the best rotation in the American League.  Felix Hernandez is often over looked when talking about aces because people think too much about the win as a stat.  Hernandez still has the best swing and miss stuff in the league (20 change-ups the other night and 17 swing and misses) even though his fast ball isn’t as fast as it once was.  Hernadez’s control and movement make him an uncomfortable at bat for anyone in the league.  Erasmo Ramirez was supposed to explode on the scene last year, but he struggled in his first season in the bigs.  There was nothing wrong with his stuff, it was just his confidence and ability to pin point his pitches.  This spring The Eraser was stellar in Spring Training and won a safe spot at the top of the Mariners rotation.  His first outing of the season was a masterpiece that only had one blemish, a sinker that was deposited over the center field wall by Raul Ibanez.  James Paxton, who is currently the number three starter, is a tall flame throwing lefty that is the perfect pitcher to slot after any of the Mariner right handers.  The angle of his fast ball coupled with velocity makes Paxton a potential strike out machine.  Hisashi Iwakuma is 23-11 so far as a Mariner and sported an impressive 4.40 K/BB rate.  I’m not sure why people sleep on Iwakuma as a fantasy baseball asset, but it really doesn’t matter to me because I just pick him where I can and include him in trades where I didn’t get him.  The ultimate final piece to this rotation will be Taijuan Walker.  Walker is a big time talent that has been season in the minors since 2010.  The Mariners gave him a cup of coffee in the majors last season and Walker teased his potential as he had a 7.2 K per 9 rate and a 3.60 ERA.  Walker was a better prospect than the highly regarded Sonny gray of the Oakland A’s and should be back in the rotation by early May, yet he was drafted at the very end of Fantasy drafts or not at all in some cases.  I drafted him everywhere I could and especially targeted him in leagues where I had a DL spot or two at my disposal.  While Walker and Iwakuma are on the mend I wouldn’t be surprised if Chris Young put up decent numbers for the Mariners as their 5th starter.  It was supposed to be Randy Wolf in that spot, but Wolf was offended when the Mariners asked him to sign a non guarantee to his contract.  So the Mariners turned to the often injured Chris Young who had lost out on a spot in the starting rotation for the Washington Nationals.

Catcher:  If Mike Zunino can develop in the bigs instead of getting more seasoning in the minor leagues.  The Mariners were widely panned for bringing up Zunino last season before he was ready for the challenge of catching in the major leagues.  Zunino struggled and the Mariners struggled to support their young prospect.  This season the Mariners added the well traveled John Buck to support Zunino and hopefully won’t put too much pressure on the young catcher to perform offensively.  Zunino projected as a plus bat behind the plate and I feel like his time will come, but asking for him to be a fantasy asset this season would be a lot.

1st Base:  If Justin Smoak can finally fulfill just a portion of the potential the Mariners saw in him when they traded Cliff Lee for him.  Smoak is off to a fantastic start this season.  He has already slugged 2 homers and driven seven runs batting in the four hole protecting Robinson Cano.  This looks like the Justin Smoak the Rangers were waiting on and the Mariners were hoping for.  If he can bat over .270 with the threat of power from both sides of the late it won’t be so easy for teams to pitch around Cano.  If Smoak falters the the Mariners have Logan Morrison and Corey Hart who can man first base, but I don’t think that will be necessary this year.

2nd Base: Robinson Cano took the big money from the Mariners and most people said he chose the money over winning when he did.  I am a Yankee fan and I thought Cano saw a genuine opportunity to be the face of a franchise on the upswing.  While there are many ifs when talking about the Mariners, Robinson Cano is not one of them.  Cano is the best second baseman in major league baseball and looks like he wants to be the unquestioned leader of the Mariners.  Good for him and the Mariners.

3rd Base:  Kyle Seager is one of my favorite young players in the league.  He can hit for power with a decent batting eye and will steal the occasional base all while fielding his position better than league average.  I thought Seager was going to benefit from hitting directly in front of Robinson Cano this season, but he has started the season in the 6 hole and should have plenty of chances to drive in Robinson Cano.  I do think his fantasy value takes a hit in that spot, but I’m not panicking.

Short Stop:  Brad Miller was the darling of the Fantasy Baseball world in the off season.  With short stop being such a shallow position you can forgive fantasy die-hards for not holding back on their enthusiasm.  Miller first had to beat out Nick Franklin for the position and did so convincingly.  Miller has not slowed down since Spring Training and has already smacked two home-runs and is sporting an over .1100 OPS.  Miller is the real deal folks.  he will hit for power and score plenty of runs hitting in front of Cano, but you will have to live with some high strikeout totals.  he has a big swing and doesn’t like to cut it down with two strikes.

Outfield:  Abraham Almonte is a switch hitting Center Fielder that Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon seems to have fallen in love with.  Almonte doesn’t offer anything in terms of power, but his speed and position on top of the Mariners order make him interesting in AL only formats.  If Almonte can’t hit his weight they always have big Michael Saunders who could take over.  Saunders operates as the fourth outfielder for now and is featuring in Right Field while Corey Hart continues to get healthy.  Saunders is a legit 20/20 guy if he gets a full opportunity, but he has never been able to hit for a high enough average to warrant it.  The aforementioned Corey Hart is a big piece of the Mariners puzzle.  He is a legitimate power right handed bat when he is healthy.  The only bad thing is he hasn’t been healthy in a while.  Hart was a solid fantasy performer in his Brewer days before a lost season last year.  A lot of people drafted him and stashed him last season only to get burned.  Those same Fantasy players may have avoided him this season because of it.  If Hart can stay healthy he will be an asset to the Mariners and fantasy owners with his power.  The last piece of the outfield puzzle is Dustin Ackley.  Ackley is a former second overall pick that was supposed to be the Mariners second baseman for the next 15 years.  Instead he struggled mightily last season, both in the field and at bat, so the Mariners decided to make him an outfielder.  First they tried him in Center Field which was a mistake, and now he has been give the left field job without any competition.  Ackley projects as a hitter that should hit for a high average and also keep a high OB%.  The only problem is he doesn’t have much power for the position.  I think the Mariners figure they could come out ahead in the power department in the middle infield and eventually at the catcher position so his lack of power won’t hurt their overall team.

Closer:  If Fernando Rodney can keep the closer’s role for the entire season he should ave over 40 games with this pitching rotation.  If he falters then Danny Farquhar will be waiver wire gold.  Keep an eye on Rodney and Farquhar if you’re in need of Saves.

As you can tell I have really been concentrating on the Mariners for selfish Fantasy purposes, but nonetheless you should start looking at them as well.  

Fantasy Spin:

Zunino should only be owned in AL only leagues for now.

Smoak should be rostered in 14 team leagues and larger.  I wouldn’t kill my Faab budget on him though.

Seager is some one you may have to play match ups with with his low spot in the batting order.

Miller will be a top ten short stop, but don’t go crazy trying to trade for him.

Ackley is going to be an asset in leagues with Batting Average especially because of his position eligibility. (2B,CF,LF)

Hart is always an injury risk, but makes for a nice Utility player when healthy.

Walker should be owned in every league you are in (except 8 team leagues, but what’s fun about 8 team leagues?)

Erasmo and Paxton are key targets for the waiver wire in 12 team leagues and larger.  In ten team leagues it may be tough to give up on who you drafted so early.

Feel free to comment and let me know which, if any Mariners, you targeted in your fantasy baseball drafts.

 

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Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft

Swag-Diamond Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Recap and Analysis

7- Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B $41    Encarnacion was one of my main targets in this auction.  Starting only 3  Outfielders and adding a Corner-Infielder spot makes Encarnacion a nice option instead of blowing your entire budget on Mike Trout ($57) or Andrew McCutchen (who went to @naapsterman for only $45).  I was in on McCutchen, but once it went to 45 I backed off.  Encarnacion ended up going for the same as Chris Davis and $5 dollars cheaper than Paul Goldschmidt.

15- Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS $31  Obviously I am gambling on health with Tulowitzki, but who aren’t you gambling with health when it comes to the top Short Stops.  Hanley Ramirez ($38) isn’t exactly Super Man and Jose Reyes (only $19 to Ryan Forbes who had a great auction) is, well Jose Reyes.  I had Tulow as a $30 player so one extra wasn’t a huge deal.

45 Jose Bautista, Tor OF $24  Bautista was my biggest target in this auction.  In 5 x 5 with OB% instead of BA% he can be huge.  I was hoping to get him for $22 and went to $24 which was one below my $25 dollar rating.

54 Justin Upton, Atl OF $7 All I can say is everyone fell asleep on this one.  I only threw out a $7 bid because there didn’t look to be to much action and I didn’t exactly want him, but I wouldn’t mind making someone else pay for him.  By getting him for only $7 dollars it opened me up to spend a little more at other spots.

57 Justin Verlander, Det SP $21 Verlander was my #4 Starting Pitcher before the injuries to Darvish and Kershaw and now he is a much tighter 3B.  His price was scoffed at a bit, but then Strasburg went for $33 and Scherzer, Wainwright and Sale all went for $26, Verlander’s price didn’t look all that bad.

89 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B $9 Oh boy did I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar on this one.  I was hoping some of my fellow owners would be bidding him up on the account of his strong spring and of course when I thought someone would go to $10 they stuck me with him for $9.  Moustakas was a $5 player in my ratings and I almost doubled that up.

90 Wilin Rosario, Col C $19 Rosario is a target of mine everywhere.  I overpaid for him here, but when I looked at the Catchers that were available after he was put up, there was no one that could come close to what he brings.  He ended up costing the same as Joe Mauer and was 6 and 5 dollars less than Santana and Posey, respectively.

94 Jered Weaver, LAA SP $12 Another one where I got caught bidding up.  I was hoping some people would be desperate for starting pitching and paying for past performance, but $12 was not a bad price for Weaver.  FantasyPros actually has him rated for $12 and I have him as a $10 SP in Mixed Leagues so I’m not too upset.

104 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS $9 I needed a middle infielder with some pop and Hardy was the guy.  His BA% doesn’t matter here and his counting numbers are nice for the MI spot.  I still over paid (by at least 3-4 dollars) in a mixed league setting, but I didn’t like what was left on the board.

126 Alex Gordon, KC OF $12 Huge OB% advantage and I get him at a discount?!  I don’t know why people are sleeping on Gordon this year, but I’m not concerned as I picked him up everywhere.  I got a $8 discount according to FantasyPros and he was $8 cheaper than Hunter Pence who is a very similar player.

143 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP $16 We need to start two relief pitchers and Rosenthal was the last of my upper-tier closers left.  I spent a little more than I wanted (I have him at $12) but I had extra money to spend.

146 R.A. Dickey, Tor SP $6 R.A. could be one of those injury bounce back players, but I only wanted him at the right price with his high WHIP so $6 was perfect.

147 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B $8 Moustakas was not going to be the thirdbaseman I was going to bank on and Sandoval was a nice back-up/starter plan for around the same price.  I wanted to only spend $7 on him, but $8 wasn’t out of the question.

165 Andrew Cashner, SD SP $8 Cashner was a big target for me. (no pun intended with his height)  With Wins not being a category Cashner is equal to a lot of the bigger name pitchers available and he can always work on getting his K-rate up.

166 Sergio Romo, SF RP $6 Not bad for my 2nd RP.  I had Romo as an $8 closer and again I get some value.  He’s in my top ten so there’s that as well.

183 Christian Yelich, Mia OF $3 Yelich is a player who i hope gets off to a fast start.  He’s a bit of a post-hype sleeper because he was last year’s version of George Springer.  A guy with power and speed who could be a huge fantasy player in the future. I’m not confident that future is now, but if he starts fast the $3 investment could pay dividends in a trade.

196 Danny Salazar, Cle SP $8 Salazar was a must because I needed to add K’s after getting Weaver and Cashner.  Salazar has top of the rotation strike-out stuff, but I think people are over-paying in redraft leagues.  $8 is not bad and is actually below where i had him rated.

200 Austin Jackson, Det OF $4 Huge discount alert.  Some people were running out of money and I picked up a steal in Jackson at $4.  FantasyPros has him rated at $16 and I have him just below that at $15.  So excited about this buy.

203 Clay Buchholz, Bos SP $3 With a DL spot available he is definitely worth the gamble.  When healthy he is top of the rotation stuff and when he’s hurt he’s on the DL.  I recently heard Eno Sarris say the very same thing and it’s always good to have someone reassure you. Cueto went for $6 and he’s the same injury gamble.  Great when healthy and when he’s hurt you DL him.

209 Marco Estrada, Mil SP $3 I really like the Strike out upside and I didn’t want to overpay for him in a room of experts.  $3 was perfect for me as I had him rated as a $6 SP.

213 Brian Dozier, Min 2B $5 Bit of an overpay here, but I needed him because I had missed out out Gyorko to TraderX for $16.  I couldn’t go that high and now Dozier was my position punt.  Not that bad a punt though with his ability to go 20/15.

222 Adam Eaton, CWS OF $3 This late in the auction strategy came to the forefront.  I knew some of my other friends in the league wanted Eaton and their max bid left was $3, so I threw out an opening bid of $3 dollars on an outfielder that people want and they were stuck letting him go to me.  If he doesn’t end up in my starters maybe I can package him for a new 2B option.

256 Taijuan Walker*, Sea SP $2 I had $2 left and I had a DL spot to use so Taijuan Walker was a nice lottery ticket to get this late.  I would much rather have him sitting on my DL then spend $2 on Danny Haren or any other former decent fantasy pitcher.

The Worst Over Pays

Ben Zobrist for $25 – that was just crazy because his number have been declining for the last few years and you can’t pay a premium just on flexibility.

Yu Darvish for $36 – It’s never a good strategy to over pay for a stud Starting Pitcher and this case was no different.  His neck issues aside this was at least $8 too much for me.

Billy Hamilton for $21 – I know the hype train is in full effect, but this is still a ONE-Category guy that should not be going in the same price range as Matt Holiday or Alex Rios.

Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg for a combine $72 – I don’t mean to pick on my good buddy Ricky Sanders here, but these were two overpays for me.  Sometimes you get caught up in the auction with your eyes focused on your targets and you blow your budget because of it.   It caught up to him at the end of the draft as his depth took a hit.

The Best Buys

Nolan Arenado for $1 – One dollar price tag was a little soul crushing for me as I paid a combined $17 for Panda and Moustakas.  I really like Arenado this year and I would have been a lot happier if I went Panda and Arenado and saved the Moustakas money to get Gyorko at 2B.

Austin Jackson for $4 – This guy score a ton of runs and he will steal bases.  His OB% is not ideal for an OB% league, but he is still worth at least 4x the cost.  I won’t even count the Upton buy because there was a lot of chatter in the message box when that was going on.  Distracted everyone.

Hisashi Iwakuma for $8 – Renee Miller picked up a nice injury steal here by getting the excellent Iwakuma for below market value.  I have Iwakuma as a $15 pitcher and would have loved to get him, but Renee made a great buy.

Aroldis Chapman for $5 – This was a really smart buy considering he will still pitch for at least 17 weeks of the season.  He cost the same as Booby Parnell who could lose his job the first month of the season.

 

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Free Agent Rashad Jennings

This week I will take a look at how free agency has affected the New York Yankees, oops, I mean the New York Giants.

I’m sure you can understand my confusion with all the money flying at the players who have been visiting Met Life Stadium.

Rashad Jennings Running

Rashad Jennings made a name for himself in Fantasy Football when he was a backup to Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville. You see Fantasy Football crazies love to imagine what a running back will do if he is just given the chance to get the bulk of the carries. The infatuation with Jennings started in 2010 when he began to flash in games as he filled in for MJD. In a 2010 games against the Giants Jennings rushed 7 times for 57 yards and a touchdown. The following two weeks he carried the ball 15 times for a total of 153 yards and two touchdowns. He finished 2010 with a 100-yard game and scored another rushing touchdown against the Houston Texans. Injuries turned 2011 into a lost season and then 2012 was underwhelming.

After 2012 Jennings looked to be just another backup running back who would always be more hope of potential then actual talent. Well in 2013 he signed with the Oakland Raiders and was put in a position where he could back up one of the most injury-prone running backs in the league, Darren McFadden. In the preseason he was battling the dynasty fantasy darling Latavius Murray before Murray was injured and lost for the season. Jennings then played special teams and waited for the inevitable injury to McFadden.

For the first few weeks of the season Jennings just had to bide his time and stay healthy and then from weeks 10 to week 15 of the 2013 NFL season Jennings showed what he could do when given a full workload. He got 113 carries over that six-week period and used those carries to rumble for 539 yards. He also caught 19 passes for 160 yards in that span. Those six games made some fantasy owners very happy. Those six games made Jennings a lot of money as he signed a four-year, $10 million deal with the Giants.

Here’s the play that will be remembered above all others from Rashad Jennings in 2013:

 

My fantasy take right now is inconclusive. I am excited as a Giants’ fan that Jennings is here to help anchor the running back position, but what makes a running back really excel in fantasy is a dominant offensive line and an offensive game plan that will feature that back in multiple ways. For now I have to reserve judgment as I think the Giants are on the right path of upgrading their offensive line with the signing of Geoff Schwartz (eighth-ranked OG by PFF) and the further development of last season’s first-round pick Justin Pugh, but there still are a lot of question marks.

 

Geoff Schwartz vs. Zane Beadles Courtesy of @PFF_Pete (Pete Damilatis):

 

 

 

J.D. Walton was rated as the worst center in the league by Pro Football Focus his last full season in the league in 2011. That doesn’t exactly stoke my confidence as he looks to be in line to be the starting center as of right now. Chris Snee’s hips didn’t cooperate last year and there is no guarantee that he will be able to hold up this year. The injury-plaguedDavid Baas has been jettisoned, but the versatile Kevin Boothe has been signed away by the Oakland Raiders. While Boothe had a down year last season (46th-ranked) he was rated as the 20th-best guard in 2012 by PFF and could even slide over and play center.

 

On the bright side, Will Beatty can always bounce back after last season’s nightmare. He went from the 11th-ranked offensive tackle in the NFL by PFF in 2012 all the way down to 58th under players with one foot out of the NFL door like Jeremy Trueblood and Ryan Harris. The big offseason contract obviously had a major impact on Beatty as he tried to live up to the money he was making, but now he has to get back to work and try and play like he did in 2012.  I’m positive he will bounce back next season and think he will benefit with Schwartz lined up next to him.

The other wild card is new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who has never called plays before. McAdoo has said that his offense will contain west coast elements that should have me excited about Jennings in the passing and screen game, but again it’s hard to put last year out of my mind.  I think one of the Cowboys is still running back one of the Giants’ screen passes from last year.

To wrap up I do like Jennings’ fantasy value in New York a lot more than I would have liked him if he had signed a one-year deal to stay in Oakland.  He may have to deal with a hopefully healthy David Wilson stealing some carries and an offensive line that may need some time to gel, but with McAdoo calling the plays I think he can be a legitimate running back 2 in Fantasy Football next season.

Check back next Friday when I go over the signing of (Super) Mario Manningham and what to expect of former Giant Hakeem Nicks in Indianapolis.

For all of your off season Fantasy Football news stop over at Coachesser.com for my current rankings as well as league wide articles.  You can also get ahead of the competition in Fantasy Baseball by checking out my rankings which are also now featured at FantasyPros.com.  You can also Mock Draft right on my site with help from the Pros.

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FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft

This year I made the choice to join the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and I couldn’t be happier.  Not only do I get to belong to a great group that supports the industry’s best and brightest, but I get to participate in leagues with fellow writers.

This season I was asked to join the latest FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft (The Nado DiFino Award) and I thought that was a great chance to see where my rankings stacked up before my main money leagues drafted over the next two weekends.

For Reference FSWA Leagues Start-

CC,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P

and Scoring is

Runs,RBIs,SBs,OB%,Slugging%     –     Ks,ERA,WHIP,QS,Saves

When I found out I had the fourth pick in the draft I was praying that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me becuase he fills up all five offensive categories and plays a position that will end up being depleted with 12 teams having to start 5 Out Fielders.  Well in a draft full of fantasy writers that didn’t happen.  Paul Goldschmidt was there for me to take him, but in a league where you start 9 Pitchers every week I couldn’t pass up on the clear number one, tier to himself, Clayton Kershaw.  That was the first of many slightly controversial picks I made in this draft.

Clayton Kershaw

COACH ESSER DENNIS
4 Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP  Over Goldschmidt was tough, but I’m happy
21 Jose Bautista, Tor OF  Needed a high upside Outfielder and Bautista can top four categories if healthy
28 Justin Verlander, Det SP  This was a personal preference. I have him rated 3rd-SP most don’t
45 Joe Mauer, Min C  2-Catcher League Mauer is huge in OB% and Runs
52 Matt Kemp, LAD OF  -Big gamble on health here. Wouldn’t have got him in the next round
69 Matt Carpenter, StL 2B  -Value pick here as he is plus in Runs,OB% and decent in Slugging%
76 Josh Donaldson, Oak 3B  -Another value pick, Wanted to wait and go with a sleeper later, but not bad.
93 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP  -The last of the upper tier Closers and now with Chapman hurt its good value
100 Jose Abreu, CWS 1B  -needed some upside power at 1B and love to gamble on Abreu
117 Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP  -Iwakuma has a lot of upside as long as that finger is ready soon
124 Danny Salazar, Cle SP  -Salazar is going to break out this year and reached a little here
141 Austin Jackson, Det OF  -Jackson was always a target and his ESPN ADP kept him off screen
148 Jason Castro, Hou C  -Castro was the last offensive Catcher that could be plus in Slugging%
165 Jason Grilli, Pit RP  -Steady closer who has a decent WHIP as well
172 Brad Miller, Sea SS  -big time target for me and it was tough to lay off Castro and Simmons as they fell
189 Khris Davis, Mil OF  -Fourth Outfielder with power upside-a bit of a gamble
196 Lance Lynn, StL SP  -Lynn is nice starter to have in this format with his K totals
213 Matt Garza, Mil SP  -Auto picked Garza when Adam Eaton was in my que but had been sniped-still stings
220 Nate Jones, CWS RP  -The last decent upside closer left.
237 Taijuan Walker, Sea SP  – Walker here was a round early based on ADP, but the shoulder sounds good
244 David Freese, LAA 3B  – Batting fourth against Lefties and if healthy not a bad Corner Infielder
261 Oswaldo Arcia, Min OF  – One of my favorite late round power sources
268 Michael Brantley, Cle OF  -Solid outfielder with room for improvement-pure depth
285 Neil Walker, Pit 2B  – Could be a nice value pick for MI depth-if not, to the wire I go
292 Devin Mesoraco, Cin C -Vargas knee issues had me looking for a 3rd Catcher when normally I wouldn’t
309 Todd Frazier, Cin 3B  – Too much potential this late in the draft.  RBIs in a pinch
316 Erik Johnson, CWS SP  – Late round sleeper or bust.  I like what I saw last year and worth a gamble
333 Junior Lake, ChC OF  – Needed Steals and he could get 20 this year while putting up decent Slugging%

As you can tell my team lacks stolen bases and I will have to look to make a trade early on or raid the waiver wire for this year’s Nate McLouth.  Let me know what you think and who you are targeting in your fantasy baseball drafts.

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Fantasy Basketball-Injuries

As we’re headed toward the playoffs in Fantasy Basketball it’s time to really pay attention to what’s going on around the league.  Injuries to some Fantasy Basketball players can go unnoticed with so much attention being split.

With March Madness taking hold and Fantasy Baseball drafts starting to consume some of your concentration it’s easy to miss some of the happenings around the NBA that can help you win a Fantasy Basketball Championship.

Point Guard-

Kyrie Irving suffered an injury to his biceps and Dion Waiters has stepped into the roll of main ball handler for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  With Irving sidelined for a few weeks Waiters can bring scoring to your fantasy team as well as some assists and steals, but you also have to weather his erratic shooting (42%) (66% from the line) in order to have him help your team.

Waiters last two game lines (Courtesy ESPN.com)

Dion Waiters Stats

While Waiters may be a good source of points you may be in need of some assists.  Well Ramon Sessions of the Milwaukee Bucks could be your answer.  2nd round pick Nate Wolters went down with a fractured hand and Sessions looks to be in line for an increase in minutes in the Bucks’ back court.  While minutes are never guaranteed when talking about the Bucks, i would gamble on Sessions if that category could put me over the top.  Just don’t expect Darren Collison level fill-in numbers.

Shooting Guard-

It took a James Anderson injury to finally see Tony Wroten back in the starting lineup, but Wroten put up very nice numbers in his last start and may be in line for some bigger minutes down the stretch as the 76ers need to evaluate their young talent to see who they want to build around for next season.

Tony Wroten’s Stats For The Last Two Contests (Courtesy ESPN.com)

Tony Wroten Stats

Power Forward-

Drew Gooden has come out of no where to put in quality minutes for the Washington Wizards and if there is an injury to Marcin Gortat  then Gooden becomes a very valuable asset.   The injury to Nene initially cleared the way, but Gooden has thoroughly outplayed Trevor Booker since and can be counted on for double digit points and some rebounds with the a couple of 3-pointers to  boot.

Drew Gooden Clebebrates

Center-

Gorgui Dieng has become somewhat of a phenomenon since getting a chance to start at Center for the Minnesota Timber Wolves while Nikola Pekovic recovers from an ankle injury.  The novelty of plugging him in as low budget option at Center quickly wore off when he went for a double double in his first game starting to along with five blocks.  Instead of a throw away joke on an afternoon DFS podcast he quickly became a name to know and run to the waiver wire as he has had a double double in each of his three starts including his last game where he went for 22 points and 21 rebounds.  With Pek hurting I think you have to run out and grab Dieng in the short term and hope he gets some run the rest of the season.

Gorgui Dieng’s Last Three Games (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Gorgui Dieng Stats

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Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

Through the first few of my actual money drafts of 2014 the same players keep sliding in drafts.  Many of these undervalued players have already become roster magnets for me and I really can’t complain based on past performance or the 2014 projections I have on these players.  So without further adieu these are some players you should target when they start to fall.

Wilin Rosario-Catcher-Colorado Rockies

Wilin Rosario Colorado Rockies

Rosario is one of the only catchers in the league that has 30 homer potential, yet he continues to slide in drafts.  In leagues that only start one catcher and are smaller than 14 teams i don’t tend to worry too much about drafting the position unless there becomes a clear “value win” or I feel the catcher run is in full swing.  It’s a lot like dealing with a one quarterback league that doesn’t weigh touch down passes as six points in fantasy football.  After the first few catchers it’s pretty much fantasy league average through catcher 14 in my rankings.  Rosario is the only one in my high-mid catcher rankings that I tend to target because of the home run potential.  If you see your team is slipping in that category in Roto-style or if Home Runs count as 5 points in your points league then don’t miss out on this guy.  You can find his current ADP at Fantasy Pros Here.

Justin Verlander-Starting Pitcher-Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is a stud.  Instead of remembering his up and down season from last year try and remember how dominant he was in the playoffs. (23 Innings – 1 Run – 31 Strikeouts)  Those are the numbers that get you excited about owning Justin Verlander and those are the numbers that are going to make him a draft steal this year.  He is regularly going behind last year’s rookie phenom Jose Fernandez in drafts and that’s just not right.  I have Verlander ranked right in my top 5 and have no fears at all about his perceived regression last year.  Don’t let him last too long in your drafts because you will be sorry.  Go to Fantasy Pros here for his current ADP across all sites.

Kyle Seager-Third Base-Seattle Mariners

Kyle Seager Under Valued

Last year it was tough to own any Mariners besides King Felix (Felix Hernandez) and be happy about it, but Kyle Seager quietly had a very good year and he did it with multiple position eligibility in some formats.  This year people seem to have forgotten that Seager showed pop (22 homers) and even some decent wheels (9 stolen bases).  Seager has even more value in leagues that start a corner infielder, but in leagues that start a traditional lineup he can be the ideal first player on your bench or utility player.  Instead of going in the low to mid 70s he is regularly available in the ealry 100s in drafts and I seem to be picking him off constantly.  Go here to see his current ADP across all sites.

Hunter Pence-Out Fielder-San Francisco Giants

Hunter Pence Fantasy BaseballAll Hunter Pence did last year was put up solid numbers in almost every category (.283-27 HRs-99RBIs-22SBs) and yet during drafts this year he continues to be over looked constantly.  I know people always like their new shiny toys, but Billy Hamilton over Hunter Pence has happened far too often.  I know his swing is ugly, but you don’t actually have to watch every at bat of your second fantasy outfielder.  Seriously I can’t think of any reason he should slide this low (current ADP) unless it’s purely on aesthetics or latent antisemitism.

 

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Cardinal Rules – Injury Report

You might think this post is about trying to make sure you have as many St. Louis Cardinals on your fantasy baseball roster as possible, but it’s not. (That is a good way to win though.)

There are a few cardinal rules you need to abide by before heading to your draft or auction in fantasy baseball.  First make sure you know the scoring system of the league you are about to try and win.  Unless winning isn’t your thing, then just show up and draft based on any old ranking system.  At least you will really like your team with that method, even if it ends up in second to last.

Kris Medlen Injured

My second cardinal rule is to make sure you have up to date injury information.  Do not go to the draft and assume Thursday’s injury report will be good for Sunday’s draft.  A lot of things can happen in two days time.  For example, the Atlanta Braves starting pitching rotation was decimated in a 48 hour window with elbow injuries to Kris Medlin and Brandon Beachy.  Imagine how bad your rotation would look right after the draft if you had no idea they both had appointments with Dr. James Andrews.

The reason I’m posting this today is because I got bit by the lack of information bug this weekend.  I took over a keeper league team that was built primarily around it’s position players and knew I needed to concentrate on starting pitching to make a dent in this particular points league.  I had a very busy weekend planned and knew i wasn’t going to be able to do as much research on Saturday or Sunday morning as I would have liked, but I felt fairly confident.

Patrick Corbin InjuredI had seen a blip of a story on Patrick Corbin leaving his Spring Training start because of pain in his elbow.  The particular post I saw only mentioned forearm tightness that seemed to be effecting his slider and that it was something to monitor, but didn’t seem like a huge issue.  If it had been a draft during the week I would have been looking up every Diamond Backs beat writer’s Twitter timeline and trying to see if this meant he should be dropped down my rankings.  Unfortunately the draft was on Sunday and the injury was on Saturday while I was out all day with my wife and kids.  Only so much research can be done on your phone while your wife reads the menu.

Long story short I had an extra third round pick from a predraft trade and I used that on Corbin.  Obviously in retrospect it was a huge mistake, but that mistake was compounded by me not drafting enough healthy pitching that didn’t have question marks around it.  Sonny Gray as my ace doesn’t feel as comfortable without Corbin there as my second starter.  Clay Buchholz as my third starter was worth a gamble if Corbin was healthy, but with Corbin out Buchholz makes my rotation very vulnerable.

Long story short I wrote this post as friendly reminder/warning that injuries do happen while your cooking steak on a stone and consuming mass quantities of sangria.  Wake up just a little early or go to bed just a bit later and pour over the day’s injuries.  Don’t take one story or article as the undisputed truth on the severity of an injury.

 

 

 

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Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank.  While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season.  Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value.  The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position.  This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season.  It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season.  Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks.  Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together.  While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey.  Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type.  In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers.  There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

[soliloquy id="968"]

The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU.  While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC.  Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues.  The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year.  Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two.  I think the continued presence  of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year.  I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool.  He can score when ever he touches the ball.  He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions.  The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season.  The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out.  If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense.  Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher.  His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build.  Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary.  He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.)  and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey.  This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson.  I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case.  If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season.  He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season.  I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4.  If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

 

 

 

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The Fantasy Baseball Black Book

The twists and turns of life often bring you back to a very familiar place.  The twists and turns of my life brought me to  Somerville, New Jersey to raise my children in my wife’s home town.  While my wife was very familiar with the surroundings of this part of New Jersey, I was not.  I often got route 202 confused with route 206 and became even more confused when it turned out they become the same road just north of Somerville.

I clung to sports to get my bearings and started coaching in the local high school.  Football and Wrestling filled my days and nights and I started to master all the  little ins and outs of the towns here in Somerset County.   Then my wife became pregnant with triplets and my life completely changed.  Instead of teaching and coaching I was changing diapers and making formula.  Instead of watching game film or scouting opponents I was watching Sesame Street and going to well visits.

While I was talking to one of my friends from High School on Facebook they mentioned that a mutual friend was in a similar situation and lived relatively close to me.  That mutual friend turned out to be Joe Pisapia, author of The Fantasy Baseball Blackbook, and someone I hadn’t spoken to since graduation.  I looked Joe up on Twitter and we reconnected.  It proved to be a very small world.  We had grown up only a few blocks from each other and now we lived in neighboring towns.  It was amazing how much we had in common.  We both married amazing women who had become the major bread winners in the household and had daughters that we stayed home to take care of.  We both were infatuated with fantasy sports and immediately started picking each other’s brain on theories and strategies.BlackBook14Cover

I was primarily involved in the fantasy football world and had been away from fantasy baseball for a number of years when we reconnected.  Joe, on the other hand, had been writing about fantasy baseball on multiple sites and was on SiriusXM Radio on the Going 9 Baseball show along with another childhood friend Dan Strafford.  Not only was Joe posting articles and talking baseball on the radio, but he was author to the Number 1 Fantasy Baseball book on Kindle.  The ideas and theories behind Joe’s book brought me back to Fantasy Baseball in 2013 and I couldn’t be happier.  It made me look at rankings and the draft in an all new way and actually had me right back up on top of the leagues I was in my first year back since the late 90’s.

If you don’t believe me or are skeptical you should listen to some friends in the industry who think just as highly of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book as I do.

“Pisapia’s ideas and concepts on relative value are some of the smartest things I’ve read on this topic in all my years playing fantasy. All the things you think you know about fantasy are going to be colored and changed once you read this.”– Will Carroll, Lead Writer for Sports Medicine, Bleacher Report Member, BBWAA and PFWA

“Joe will have you looking at your player rankings in a whole new
way… and it will help put you ahead of the curve.” – Chris McBrien Host, “Dear Mr. Fantasy” Podcast

 

I was so excited about Joe’s latest book that I wanted share it with as many friends and followers as I could.  Joe was nice enough to provide me an excerpt from his latest book so that my readers and followers can see what they’re missing by only buying a fantasy magazine from the local drug store.  Here’s some of what the new book covers.

The new and expanded 2014 edition includes:

* Over 400+ player profiles including minor league prospects
* Expanded RPV for all players in varying formats (roto & points)
* 2014 Draft Strategy for all formats including Daily Fantasy Baseball leagues
* Chapters on being a commissioner, most overrated/underrated players, making trades and managing your team, and the answers the five biggest questions in fantasy this season
* More Dynasty and Auction League content than ever before

Here’s the excerpt, and don’t forget to click on the link to buy The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition.

By Joe Pisapia the creator of the revolutionary statistic RPV (Relative Position Value) and the author of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition. Available on Amazon Kindle Store and iTunes for Apple Devices. Check out www.fantasyblackbook.com for your fantasy baseball news and listen to him on Sirius210/XM87 Fantasy Sports Channel Going 9 Baseball Every Thursday 8-10PM EST.

 

RPV – Relative Position Value

The age old argument in fantasy sports has always been whether or not to value position scarcity. Many have had theories on both ends of the spectrum. The biggest problem is neither side has been able to quantify their stance on the subject. That is until the Fantasy Baseball Black Book created the statistic Relative Position Value otherwise known as RPV. What RPV does is allow you to compare players to their peers at their respective positions with weighted values based on their production. It also gives you a look into each position as an entire entity to see just how valuable catchers are compared to second basemen as a whole. Best of all, it is completely adaptable to all formats, styles, scoring systems. RPV is adjustable to your specific league style and depth of talent. It’s the single most useful draft tool and player evaluation system available to fantasy players. And for any roto league players skeptical of this stat translating into your format, get ready to see fantasy in a whole new light.

RPV goes so much deeper than just measuring out league average production at a position. That really doesn’t help you much because all that gives you is a medium baseline to work off of and stay above. But what does that mean? It doesn’t weigh the players value above that baseline nor weigh the elite at the position versus the elite at other positions.

For example, let’s pretend the league average second basemen offensive stat line is: .260BA/70R/10HR/70RBI/7SB

The “experts” who use this logic insist that Player X is better than the league average and Player Y is under the league average so therefore Player Y is not valuable. Here is the major problem with this approach; the league average holds 30 players at second base. Fantasy leagues play 12-20 second basemen every week (depending on format and MINF slots). Therefore, the “league average” concept is obsolete. The fantasy league average is what is applicable based upon the depth of your personal league. My 24 team dynasty league is a totally different set of circumstances than my 16 team points league or 12 team roto league. You must have an adjustable tool to measure players in all situations.

Let us take things a step further. It’s not enough to know the statistical average fantasy points of the top 12 second basemen over the last three years (roughly 400 points). You need to have some way of quantifying how much better (or worse) a given player is compared to the next guy available at his position on draft day. I call this approach Relative Position Value of a player or RPV. This theory is simple to grasp and easy to utilize when creating your tiers for your draft.

To begin using RPV, you’ll need a method that will assign a numerical value to each player that reflects his performance. Any single measurement method will do; however, it is most easily communicated using fantasy points (or projected fantasy points) which measure a player’s true overall production. However, just because we are using points does not mean the result is not applicable to roto formats. In fact, it can be a huge asset when creating your draft strategy in roto leagues. You just have to adjust the point value by adding more weight to stolen bases and being aware of positive and negative batting averages (above/below .275BA as the benchmark). On the pitching end, you increase the value of saves and awareness of positive/negative ERA (3.75ERA being the threshold). We will investigate roto RPV further as the chapter continues.

With the basic point value system Robinson Cano is the highest point getter at second base with a 550 point average over the last three seasons. The average over that same period for the top 16 second basemen is 375 points. Note that we are looking at Cano versus a grouping of 16, but of course the number can be adjusted for any depth necessary.

The formula to determine the RPV or the percentage in which a player is better than the fantasy league average is:

(Individual Player Point Value − Fantasy League Average of the Position) ÷ Fantasy League Average of the Position = RPV

In the case of our example:

(Robinson Cano’s 550 −The Average 2B points 375) ÷ 375 = .46

So what does this .46 number mean? It means Cano is +46% better than the league fantasy league average second basemen. Therefore his RPV is +46%.

RPV can also show a negative impact. That would mean a player whose point total is below the position average (the 375 point threshold in this circumstance). RPV lets us see not only the negative affect of these players, but also the extent of that negative impact. For instance, let’s plug in Omar Infante’s 3 year average of 320 points into the equation.

Infante’s 320pts – 375 FLA (Fantasy League Avg) ÷ 375 = −.15 or −15%RPV

This means that should you end up starting Omar Infante in your league that you are down -15% in production at that given position relative to what the average second basemen in your league will achieve. Therefore, you must make up ground at another position just to keep up with the league average at an overall team level. The goal is to be at or above the average at every available position in order to maximize each available roster spot. Bill James once said if you had a league average player at every position you would make the playoffs in MLB every year. That would be accurate in fantasy terms as well. However, what we want to do is get to the playoffs with a real chance to win. In lay terms, you want to squeeze as much juice from every single orange you have in your crate so that your glass is as full as it can be, or at least fuller than the guy next to you. You have a certain number of finite active roster slots in your lineup and getting the most out of them each week is the key to success.

RPV IN THEORY

For an example, let’s take a look at the RPV leaders at each position over the last three years using the standard scoring system. Again this is for a field of 16 deep at each position. The second RPV in brackets

[X%] is for a 12 team roto league pool with expanded rosters (2C/CINF/MINF/5OF etc). The three year leaders by position are:

(FL AVG Points) =Fantasy League Average points

[RL AVG] = Roto League Average points

C Carlos Santana {398pts} (289 FL AVG pts) +38%RPV

[based on 256 roto league average points Santana = +55% roto RPV]

1B Prince Fielder {522pts} (418FL AVG) +25%RPV [386 RL AVG = +35%]

2B Robinson Cano {550pts} (375FL AVG) +46% [356 RL AVG = +55%]

3B Miguel Cabrera {636pts} (375FL AVG) +70% [346 RL AVG = +85%]

SS Ben Zobrist {443pts} (358 FL AVG) +24% [330 RL AVG = +34%]

*ALL ROTO OF RPV based on a 360 point ROTO AVG*

OF #1 (440) – Mike Trout (*only two full seasons*) (601) +37% [+70%]

OF #2 (376) – Alex Rios (424) +8% [+17%]

OF #3 (319) – Alfonso Soriano (369) +10% [+3%]

* #4 and #5 OF for roto only

*OF #4 (274) – Austin Jackson (342) [-5%]

*OF #5 (240) B.J. Upton 286 [-21%]

*SP RPV values hold true in all formats*

(w/ a secret points league advantage discussed later in this chapter)

SP#1 (522) – Clayton Kershaw (669) +28%

*SP #2 (409) – C.J. Wilson (440) +8%

*SP #3 (337) – A.J. Burnett (372) +10%

*SP #4 (291) – Mike Minor (311) +7%

*SP #5 (256) – Ryan Vogelsong (269) +5%

RP #1 (321) – Craig Kimbrel (522) +63%

*RP #2 (241) – Glen Perkins (264) +10%

One of the most interesting things about looking at 3-year averages is that the “best” player at each position is not necessarily the one that jumps to mind. Ben Zobrist for instance is not the player Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki is, but Zobrist does produce consistently and he stays on the field regularly. In points leagues, Carlos Santana’s +38% is higher than Mike Trout’s 37%, but clearly there is no universe Santana goes before Trout nor should he. What it does illuminate is that relatively speaking, Santana’s value based on the positional depth of catcher is extraordinary. It also shows how valuable a catcher who plays more frequently just 5 games a week. We

Notice that for the outfield and pitching positions I’ve broken things down into individual roster spots, even though the players who are eligible at these positions are all drafted from a single pool. I think this is appropriate when considering RPV, because, not all three outfielders on a fantasy points league squad represent the same level of quality or performance. Thinking this way, you can see why drafting a solid number one outfielder is important, but once you have one, the rest of your outfield slots can be filled later in the draft.

There is a distinct difference in the points and roto RPV numbers. You can also clearly see when the talent pool expands to a 12 team roto league with 5 OF/CINF/MINF etc. the percentages expand. What also grows is the disparity between the top and bottom numbers. You also see how even the best 4th and 5th outfielders are in the negative pool making outfielders a higher priority in roto. The OF pool becomes a matter of supply and demand. There are 90 active OF playing a night in MLB (3OF x 30 teams). In a 16 team points there are 48 (3 OF x 16 teams). That is about half the total talent pool. In roto, you normally have 5 active X 12 teams which is a pool of 60. That is 2/3 of the talent pool and I am not counting how many you will see used in DH or UT lots. That can easily bump that number to 70 or more out of the 90 available.

In 12 team roto leagues, Mike Trout’s value skyrockets as it should. OF is where you will get the majority of stolen base production and that is crucial to roto leagues. Another clear leap is at catcher. Santana’s RPV also increases a great deal based on the expanded catcher pool and lack of production at the bottom third of the top 24 catchers. As for Miguel Cabrera, well he is still equally brilliant in all formats.

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