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NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Podcast with Pat Mayo

NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Podcast with Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo (@thePME) of The FNTSY Sports Network, RotoeXperts, and DailyRoto stops by The Fantasy Coach Podcast to talk about NFL DFS Week 3 for DraftKings.  I promise we talk some strategy after catching up and exchanging the finer points on blogging and tagging posts. (I kid you not!)  After talking about this week’s hot-button issues like the NCAA going after college athletes for playing DFS  we delve into the week 3 slate.

First we discuss Thursday Night’s game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants and discuss if we want any exposure to the game or if we should play the Thursday start slate but fade the match up.  Kirk Cousins, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Matt Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. are discussed.

We then talk about paying up for Defense this week and how to go about setting your lineup if you are going to take Seattle at home against the Bears.

We discuss paying up for RBs this week versus taking low priced options.  Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Jamaal Charles are discussed versus the lower priced James Starks, Danny Woodhead, TJ Yeldon and Latavious Murray.

We touch on the big DFS game of the week as the Pittsburgh Steelers are visiting the St. Louis Rams.  Players discussed include, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Nick Foles and Todd Gurley.

We talk about highly volatile tournament plays such as Torrey Smith and Ted Ginn Jr.

We discuss bankroll management.  Differentiating between building a tournament lineup versus a cash game lineup and discuss how hard it can be to stay on course.

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FanDuel Quick Picks for NFL Week 3

FanDuel Quick Picks for NFL Week 3


By the time it takes you to read this article countless numbers of Americans will have already been exposed to millions upon millions of FanDuel and DraftKings commercials today. I told my mother, aged 67, that I won some money playing Fanduel, and she knew what I was talking about! It is a full-fledged revolution, and in this writer’s opinion, second only to the one in 1776. The purpose of my articles are two-fold. One is to provide some philosophical insight into behavioral tendencies of FanDuel players. I will study my own behavior as well as the behaviors of the FanDuel community. Why was I so high on Austin Seferian-Jenkins last week? What is my obsession with David Johnson on the Cardinals? These behaviors are often destructive in FanDuel and I’m sure you exhibit some of them too. My second purpose is to provide you with FanDuel tips early in the week so that you can begin to make your plan. For me, it’s a week long process. It starts Tuesday morning, usually in the one place I can lock the door sit down and have some quiet time (you Dads out there know exactly where I’m talking about). There is always a follow up session later in the day, sometimes three or four depending on what I eat for dinner that day! I will present to you every Wednesday players that have caught my eye based on matchups, price value, and observations made from the prior week. I hope you will react to my “Quick Picks” and challenge me. Doing so, will only make both of our lineups better. Thank-you for taking the time to read.

Quick Tip #1 (behavioral) – When playing in a Thursday FanDuel tournament pick only one Thursday player or none at all. I’ve noticed the impulsivity of FanDuel players. That same impulsivity lies within you as well. Scenario: There is a Thursday night game and you want to watch it but in your other fantasy leagues you don’t have any players. What do you do? You load up a FanDuel lineup with Thursday night players so that you have something to watch and get excited about. Suddenly, Rueben Randle looks like a great bargain. In your head he is finally having his breakout game and you remember seeing an article in the newspaper (online of course, not an actual newspaper) that Eli wants to get him more involved. They just released Preston Parker, more targets for Rueben! Fast forward to later that night, Rueben has 2 catches for 17 yards and you are stuck with him. Let other people load up on Thursday players. You can basically eliminate from contention all those that do.

Quick Tip #2 (Player Pick) – Let TE Jordan Reed ($5300) be your only player chosen from the Thursday night game. This will take extreme discipline as you will want to take Odell Beckham Jr. after he torched the Redskins last year and is coming off of a great week. If he’s your guy, by all means take him. However, you should be aware that the Redskins pass defense has been really good thus far, and they are a much more physical team than the Giants are. Back to Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins has targeted him a team leading 17 times, weeks one and two combined, and he’s played 85% of snaps. Last week he did well against a formidable Rams Defense to the tune of 6 targets, 6 catches, and 82 yards. He is clearly Kirk Cousins favorite target in the air with Desean Jackson out of action. The Giants defense is terrible at stopping opposing teams’ tight ends as they were torched by both Dallas TE’s and Jacob Tamme last week. At $5300, I think you can get Travis Kelce production at a cheaper price.

Quick Tip #3 (Behavioral) – Stop picking random stud performers from last week thinking they will repeat their performance. Try to think of each week as an entirely new entity all by itself. Isn’t that why we like FanDuel in the first place? Last weeks’ failures are gone but so are the successes. You missed out on Larry Fitzgerald. Pick him this week and you will lose. What you’re really missing though is the key information. The Bears are really bad and will continue to get worse each week. They are on 2-3 year plan and most of that plan does not involve their current terrible players. Try to find a starter or two that play the Bears each week.

Quick Tip #4 (Player Pick) – I’m not afraid to pay for my defense in FanDuel because that separates winning teams from losing teams. I like the Seahawks Defense at $5300. Any time I’ve ever won money in FanDuel I’ve always had a great performing defense. If you’ve been overlooking defenses and just fitting in whatever money you can afford at the end you must stop immediately. The Seahawks are 0-2, Jimmy Graham is running his mouth, and they are going to take out all of their frustration on the Bears at home. Jay Cutler is out, although I almost prefer Mr. Turnover to be playing, Jimmy Clausen is in, and none of that matters anyhow because the Hawks D will score you lots of points this week. The Arizona Cardinals Defense scored 18 FanDuel points against them last week in Chicago. Just imagine what the Seahawks will do to them this week.

Quick Tip #5 (Player Pick) – What can Brown do for you? Ah, the inevitable Antonio Brown pun. It works too well not to use. The first thing I do with my FanDuel lineups is go click on Antonio Brown and insert him into my lineup. I’m going to stick with that until Martavius Bryant comes back because I may want to see if there is any hinderance to Brown’s stats. There probably won’t be. Antonio Brown is the model of consistency. I love having him in all my lineups for that guaranteed 20+ point total. Last week he was used in 26% of FanDuel lineups. I generally like to find guys that are used in less lineups, for example, DeAngelo Williams was used in only 4.3% of lineups last Sunday. Pure Gold. With Antonio Brown I look at it this way. If he’s owned by 26% of the people, 74% are NOT using him. Since FanDuel roughly pays out on the top 25%, I’m using Antonio Brown every week because I feel like I have an advantage over 74% of the people. This is the math they should be teaching in our public schools! Last week Antonio Brown rewarded me with a wonderous 9-195-1 line. Have him in all of your lineups every week.

THE LONGSHOTS
I’d like to end my article each week with a few long shots suggestions. Metaphorically speaking, these are the 50-1 shots in horse racing. Below are 5 longshots that have a chance to hit this week along with a small blurb about each one and their Fanduel price.

Fred Jackson – RB – $6000 – I wish he was cheaper but he’ll fit in nicely if you load up on stud WRs. Everyone is going to get a piece of that Chicago Bears pie and I could see Jackson racking up garbage time points.

David Johnson – RB – $6000 – He’s a man-child. This may be your last week to get him cheap. I know Ellington is coming back but he’s a little guy destined to get hurt over and over again. I wouldn’t hesitate to use him as my RB #2

Nelson Agholor – WR – $5300 – Very cheap and he should be that cheap. The guy has done very little. I’m expecting a little Jets letdown this week combined with some Chip Kelly desperation to get things right. Revis should be on Jordan Matthews so maybe Nelson breaks through. He did have a semi-respectable 6 targets last week.

Tyler Lockett – WR – $5000 – Maybe this longshot breaks a long TD. Who on the Bears can catch him?

Ryan Mallet – QB – $6300 – He had a respectable week last week. He’s cheap and a few touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins and he can be a nice value play.

Thank you everyone for taking the time to read this. Please follow me on twitter @QuickRotoTips and feel free to offer feedback or to blame me if you take some of my advice and it all goes terribly.

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Breaking Down Winning and Losing Lineups On DraftKings in Week 2

Breaking Down Winning and Losing Lineups On DraftKings in Week 2

Week 2 turned into a big Monday night sweat for me in most of my cash games on DraftKings.  It all came down to Eric Decker against a beat up Colts secondary for me to have a positive weekend in DFS.  Luckily the scenario that we had all hoped would play out did as Vontae Davis covered Brandon Marshall early in the game and Decker was running free against linebackers and practice squad level corners.  If Decker had not hurt his knee and if Davis hadn’t been injured he actually could have saved some of my weaker tournament lineups that missed the money by a few points.

The big story for me was injuries and the top wide receivers actually paying dividends.  I did not have any of Julio Jones or Antonio Brown and it hurt quite a bit.  The only positive was more people faded Rob Gronkowski because of their desire to get Julio and Antonio into their lineups, which gave me a big edge at TE.   My biggest mistake was having too much exposure to Brandin Cooks at home against Tampa Bay.  I was prepared for Cooks to break out this week, but I wasn’t about to pony up for Drew Brees after watching him dump it off again and again the week before.  Cooks and the Saints struggles as a team almost cost me big time.  Luckily Jordan Matthews caught a garbage time touchdown otherwise I would be writing this a little poorer than usual.  (Give a guy a break when he has triplets.)

Tevin Coleman’s injury really hurt my cash lineups.  I teamed him up with Marshawn Lynch and obviously Lynch under-performed, but I could have absorbed that a little easier if I didn’t lose Coleman to cracked ribs late int he first half against the Giants.  I’m wondering if people will shy away from Lynch in cash during week 3 after his performance against the Packers even though he is facing the lowly Chicago Bears Defense.  I was kicking myself a bit for not having any exposure to DeAngelo Williams in the last week before Le’Veon Bell came back from suspension, and also not at least taking Torrey Smith a bit with the 49ers having to keep up with that amazing Steelers O.

My best late swap was getting away from the Titans Defense completely and using the Cardinals and Patriots across the board.  Something about Jay Cutler makes me want to start a defense against him almost every week.  It’s too bad he won’t be healthy enough to face the Seahawks this week as he has a strained hamstring from chasing a defender this past Sunday.  I felt like Decker and Terrance Williams were going to be owned a bunch in cash games and really wanted to stay away from canceling out on defense when there were other good options.

My Strengths this week:  Zeroing in on Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger as my QBs and picking the right Defenses.

My Weakness this week:  Cash Game Running Backs, and not stacking (for some odd reason) in tournament lineups. (Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Brown)

Some of the best post week breakdowns have been going up over at DraftKings Playbook.  Adam Levitan (formerly of Rotoworld) has written breakdowns of his cash game lineups the past two weeks that I believe they will really help people understand the difference between thinking about tournament lineup construction and cash game lineup construction.  This week he broke down some mistakes and you should definitely give it a look.
http://playbook.draftkings.com/nfl/nfl-cash-game-lineup-review-week-2/

Jonathan Bales (Author of Fantasy Sports for Smart People and Co-Founder of Fantasy Labs) broke down his winning DraftKings lineup in the higher stakes single entry DraftKings NFL World Championship Qualifier for week 2 in a video over at FantasyLabs.com.  I think it’s extremely important to pay attention to his reasoning for playing Dion Lewis against the Bills, putting Eric Decker in the Flex spot, and also taking the Patriots D.  This is god standard breakdown and it’s always fun to hear how a winning lineup was constructed.
http://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/draftkings-lineup-breakdown-week-2-championship-qualifier/

 

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Fantasy Football Week Two Waiver Wire Watch

Fantasy Football Week Two Waiver Wire Watch

Well week two was unkind in the injury department. Owners lost Tony Romo to a broken clavicle, possibly Drew Brees to an injured shoulder and Eddie Lacy was hobbled with an ankle injury.  Alshon Jeffrey had a set back with his injured calf and hamstring and missed week two while Michael Floyd and Mike Evans were shut out because they are playing through injuries.  Promising rookie Tevin Coleman cracked some ribs and something must have happened to Roddy White for him to be shut out in New York.  Not to mention Jeremy Hill had some fumbling issues and Alfred Morris saw more of his touches end up going to Matt Jones.  The struggles of Brandin Cooks, CJ Anderson and Lamar Miller continued and Peyton Manning’s arm strength looked just as bad as week one.

Hopefully some the guys listed below can help plug the gaps grab some wins for you.

QB:

Joe Flacco Baltimore Ravens- (ESPN Ownership 41%)
With Baltimore’s defense looking like swiss cheese Baltimore’s signal caller will be asked to put it up early and often.  The development of Crockett Gilmore really helps Flacco as he works the middle of the field and makes the linebackers and safeties pay attention to players besides Steve Smith and Justin Forsett.

Andy Dalton Cincinnati Bengals- (ESPN Ownership 21%)
Dalton looks to be a new man this year as he’s consistently throwing the ball where only his receivers can make a play.  The size of AJ Green and Tyler Eifert give him excellent weapons in the red zone and Giovani Bernard gives him an outlet for added yardage in the passing game.

RB:

Matt Jones RB Washington Redskins (ESPN Ownership 15.8%)
Matt Jones looked explosive in game one when given a chance behind Alfred Morris and ran with an opportunity during week 2 as he topped 100 yards and scored twice against a tough St. Louis Rams defense.  The Redskins O looks to rely on the running game and Alf and Jones could each have RB2 value going forward.  If Jones badly outplays Morris he could take over the role as Morris is not signed past this year.

David Johnson RB Arizona Cardinals (ESPN Ownership 46%)
Chris Johnson was announced as the lead dog last week by Bruce Arians, but once again you cannot listen to Coach Speak when looking for the best upside pick up.  Johnson returned a kickoff 108 yards for a touchdown to start the game against the Bears and then got in the endzone again in his few touches.

Devonte Freeman Atlanta Falcons (ESPN Ownership 64%)
With Tevin Coleman sidelined Devonte Freeman will see the bulk of the touches for Atlanta against the Cowboys, Texans and Redskins in the next three weeks.  While I don’t like Freeman’s talent all that much he did show nice strength gaining first downs this week against the Giants and even scored at the goal-line to ice the game.

Dion Lewis New England Patriots (ESPN Ownership 40%)
LeGarrette Blount returned from suspension this week and the Patriots faced the fearsome Bills defense and still Dion Lewis excelled.  Lewis has been money in the passing game and has been one of the most elusive backs in the NFL so far.  I say ride him while you can.  If he keeps fumbling he will eventually lose his job so don’t go all in.

Ronnie Hillman Denver Broncos (ESPN Ownership 49%)
The toe injury has clearly slowed CJ Anderson and Hillman has been just a bit more effective with his chances.  Grab him if he’s available in case Anderson gets shut down or Hillman outplays him.

James Starks Green Bay (ESPN Ownership 8%)
It looked like Eddie Lacy was going to miss major time when he couldn’t put weight on his foot and ankle during Sunday Night Football against the Seahawks, but now it’s been rumored that he may be a go on Monday night against the Chiefs.  Starks looked great filling in, especially in the passing game so he needs to be owned, especially with Lacy’s concussion history.

WR:

Michael Crabtree Oakland Raiders (ESPN Ownership 31%)
Amari Cooper is scary good and that’s a good thing for Crabtree.  With Cooper getting added attention Crabtree was left alone to make plays last week and I can see that happening a lot moving forward.  The Raiders D is once again soft and the Raiders will be forced to throw the ball a lot.

Travis Benjamin Cleveland Browns (ESPN Ownership 6%)
I don’t love Benjamin long term, but he is a big play wide receiver who is hot.  I would take a stab, especially in standard leagues as Benjamin is scary in the open field and running at safeties.

Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks (ESPN Ownership 35%)
Loved the way Baldwin looked this week as he easily got open once Wilson started threatening the edge.  Against the Bears and Kyle Fuller next week Baldwin could be borderline WR2.

Allen Hurns Jacksonville Jaguars (ESPN Ownership 4.5%)
Hurns is the clear number two wide receiver for Jacksonville and Blake Bortles looks like he’s getting better.  Hurns has the speed to make big plays and his catch rate is getting a bit better this year.  I love having him as a WR5 on my teams.

Leonard Hankerson Atlanta Falcons (ESPN Ownership 3.8%)
Hankerson was the man to benefit last week as the Giants tried their best to pay attention to Julio Jones.  Hankerson is a nice PPR option in deep PPR leagues as Matt Ryan and the Falcons may lean on the passing game a bit more with Tevin Coleman sidelined.

TE:

Vernon Davis San Francisco 49ers (ESPN Ownership 38%)
Vernon Davis seeing consistent targets the first two weeks and the 49ers D looks vulnerable which will force the 49ers to throw more than they have the last few years.

Jared Cook St. Louis Rams (ESPN Ownership 9%)
Cook led all Rams receivers this week in yardage has looked like he has a nice relationship going with Nick Foles.  Cook could be a solid deep PPR league flex option this week against the Steelers.

Crocket Gilmore Baltimore Ravens (ESPN Ownership 1.5%)
Gilmore has made strides as a tight end from year one to year two.  He is a huge target who has nice athleticism and a nose for the goal-line.  In standard leagues I like him a lot more.

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DFS Legality and Steve Rannazzisi 911 Lie Podcast

DFS Legality and Steve Rannazzisi 911 Lie PodcastMichael Stein of FantasyJudgment.com

While Renee Miller was unavailable to come on the podcast this week, I decided to talk about some current topics in the fantasy sports and daily fantasy sports industries.  My good friend Michael Stein of FantasyJudgment.com stopped by the podcast to lend his expertise in both areas of discussion this week.  First we look at the question of legality when it comes to DFS and then we delve into the 911 survivor lie told by Steve Rannazzisi of FX’s The League.  I felt that Michael was the perfect person to talk about the legal question marks with DFS because of his day job as a lawyer and also because he actually lived through the horrors that terrible day just over 14 years ago.

Some Links on DFS Legality:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2012/09/19/should-gambling-on-fantasy-football-be-legal/
http://www.kleinmoynihan.com/are-daily-fantasy-sports-tournaments-legal/
http://www.opposingviews.com/i/skillful-planning-or-lucky-break-fantasy-football%E2%80%99s-unique-ruling

The Steve Rannazzisi 911 Lie:
http://www.ew.com/article/2015/09/16/league-rannazzisi-lied-911

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Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings


With the Start/Sit Widget still not up and running I’ll make sure to have my rankings up each and every week and as fresh as possible.  You’ll see players like Terrance Williams, Pierre Garcon and Chris Johnson pushed up my rankings because of injuries while players like Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham Jr. get pushed down a bit because of match ups.

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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Fantasy Football Week One Waiver Wire Watch

Fantasy Football Week One Waiver Wire Watch

 

Week one does not always give a clear picture of usage and situation, but you can take a step towards a fantasy championship by aggressively grabbing the right waiver wire target.  Below are some of my recommendations.  Editor’s Note- This post will be up on Tuesdays of each and every week moving forward.

QB

Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals (56% owned ESPN)
Palmer showed in week one why I had him as one of my top sleeper QBs this fantasy season.  He moved around extremely well and was able to find the open receiver constantly.  Palmer didn’t even have Michael Floyd at full strength and lost a nice passing game weapon in Andre Ellington during the game.  Given that John Brown will continue to grow and Floyd will be back to himself soon, you have to love Palmer going forward.

Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs (26.2% owned ESPN)
Alex Smith did not throw a touchdown to a wide receiver again!  Who cares as long as Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles are around.  Both Kelce and Charles can take it to the house any time they get the ball in their hands and that make Smith dangerous.

Marcus Mariota Tennessee Titans (56% owned ESPN)
The game plan was perfect for the Titans in week one.  Quick hitting plays and extremely hard to defend zone read – option passes.  Mariota showed off more arm strength than he did in the preseason and his accuracy was still on point.  His accuracy will be at the forefront of his fantasy points if he can continue to hit Kendall Wright in full stride as well as put the ball on his running backs so that they don’t have to adjust to the ball.

RB

Bishop Sankey Tennessee Titans
Sankey is widely owned in ESPN leagues, but in CBS and Yahoo 10 team leagues he is available in some PPR leagues that feature more WRs.  He needs to be rostered with the way Mariota and the Titans offense looked.  Sankey gets lucky with CObb being injured as well as Anontio Andrews nursing a hammy, but he took full advantage in week one.

David Johnson Arizona Cardinals
The injury to Andre Ellington and the speed he showed in the passing game mean it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out.  Grab David Johnson instead of Chris Johnson and wait until it pays off.  It may be sooner than later.

Dion Lewis New England Patriots
The Pats D gave up yards in bunches against the Steelers and I don’t think their secondary is going to be much better against much of the league.  Lewis will play a major role when they are down and or in shoot outs so if you’re in a PPR league make him a priority.

Darren Sproles Philadelphia Eagles
Sproles looked finished just two years ago in New Orleans, but he must have been playing injured.  He was excellent last year, even stealing red zone carries from LeSean McCoy.  This year he picked up where left off torching the Falcons with his incredible route running and speed.

Khiry Robinson New Orleans Saints
The Saints have issues getting the ball to their wide receivers right now.  It looks like they will continue to feature both Ingram and Robinson in the passing game until CJ Spiller returns and Robinson will still have value even when Spiller returns.

WR

Terrance Williams Dallas Cowboys
The injury to Dez Bryant is more likely to be an 8 week injury than it is to be a 4 week injury.  Williams becomes the number one in Dallas and with their running backs not setting the world on fire they may have to lean on the passing game a little more.

Donte Moncrief Indianapolis Colts
Moncrief was involved in the offense even before TY Hilton went down with a knee injury.  I don’t think Hilton misses much time, if any, but Moncrief should be scooped up.  Andre Johnson had trouble getting open and the Colts run game looked nonexistent.  With the Colts D showing no teeth they are going to have to rely on the arm of Andrew Luck again and I want his receivers if that’s the case.

Stevie Johnson San Diego Chargers
I loved Johnson as a sleeper target until his price rose to almost crazy levels over the summer.  After week one, I think I may have pumped the breaks when I should have continued to buy.  Malcolm Floyd was not involved much and Johnson was dynamite in the WR  screen and quick hitting game.

Percy Harvin Buffalo Bills
Rex Ryan really like Percy Harvin and more importantly it looks like Tyrod Taylor really like Percy Harvin.  As long as he’s at least the number two option in the offense I think he has value.  Especially in standard leagues. I n PPR I may look elsewhere.

Cole Beasley Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are going to have to count on their role players with Dez Bryant sidelined.  In deeper PPR leagues I would scoop up Beasley.

TE

Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals
Eifert was only 40% owned on ESPN entering the weekend, but those days have passed after his breakout performance.  He’s always been talented, but just needed to stay healthy to show it.  He is still available in 30% of leagues and that should be gone by the time everyone’s FAAB bidding ends.  Eifert is the number two receiver in the offense and the Bengals have showed that they have game plans that heavily involve him.

Jordan Reed Washington Redskins
Jordan Reed may be the luckiest fantasy asset on the planet.  Ste to take a back seat this season, Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen get injured in the preseason.  During week one DeSean Jackson injures his hamstring and Reed is put at the forefront of the Redskins passing game.  Reed is talented and looks stronger this season.  Grab him, let him score some points for you and then trade him before he pulls a hamstring again.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The old adage that rookie and new QBs like to throw to the closest thing to them proved true in week one as Jameis Winston found Seferian-Jenkins several times.  With Tampa Bay’s defense still not much improved I would suggest grabbing this big tight end  where you can.

Heath Miller Pittsburgh Steelers
For the next few weeks Heath Miller will continue to feature in the passing game until Martavis Bryant returns from suspension.  Miller was a PPR beast in week one and should get some red zone looks moving forward.  The fact that Markus Wheaton didn’t look all that great week one makes me like playing miller even more.

Ladarius Green San Diego Chargers
Green was set to miss week one with a concussion, but made a miraculous recovery in time to face the Detroit Lions.  His speed and size make for big play ability and he is definitely Rivers best option in the red zone until Antonio Gates comes back.

K

Brandon McManus Denver Broncos
Who benefits from the Broncos offense struggling a bit?  The kicker does!  McManus easily beat out Connor Barth this preseason and rocketed multiple 50 yard plus field goals this weekend.  Top 6 kicker for me.

Zach Hocker New Orleans Saints
With Jimmy Graham in Seattle it looks like New Orleans is going to have a tougher time punching it in when they get to the red zone and Hocker will be the one to benefit the most.

Chandler Catanzaro Arizona Cardinals
Catanzaro is a decent pick for anyone who needs a kicker in deeper leagues.  The Cardinals will put up points this year and their running game doesn’t look like it’s built for short yardage success so Catanzaro will benefit.

D

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs defense looked very solid this week even on the road.  The return of Derrick Johnson and the continued dominance of Justin Houston mean the Chiefs are going to be better than I gave them credit for before the season.

 

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Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKings

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKingsPile of Pancakes

Just a few short years ago the only stacks I was worried about on a Sunday morning was a huge pile of pancakes covered in butter and syrup.  I’m not kidding.  Now all week long I try and focus on what stacks may be the most profitable on Sundays in the biggest and best GPP tournaments Daily Fantasy Sports has to offer.  If you look back at some of the winners in last season’s millionaire makers and even the teams that had big time sweats there were variations of stacking that helped them lap the field.  Whether it was everyone’s favorite Boston sweat with a home town Patriots fan taking the entire offense to win himself a million bucks or it was the off the radar Joe “100 Million Dollar Man” Flacco and his Ravens receivers winning a million dollars.  Every week I’ll talk about my favorite stacks and even some offenses I wish I could stack, but ultimately can’t.

Dallas Cowboys Stack –

Tony Romo 7300 –  Romo is pretty mid-priced when it comes to week one QBs and it;’s almost too good to be true with the way he has played against the Giants the last few years.  The Giants are in even worse shape now then they were the last few years as they have a very suspect safety tandem to go along with a JPP-less pass rush.  The only thing holding me back from using Tony Romo more (besides my Giants fandom) is the fact that the Giants might be equally as bad against the run as they may start Markus Kuhn at DT and an undrafted FA rookie at MLB with Jon Beason out.

Dez Bryant 8700 – Dez Bryant gets up for games against the NFC East.  He demands the ball and he makes big plays.  He also is 500 cheaper than Odell Beckham Jr. on the Giants.  Dez is one of the players I am getting in my lineups even when I’m not stacking Cowboys.

Jason Witten 4000 – Witten kills the Giants.  The Giants usually play some form of cover 2 to help over the top with Dez Bryant and it leaves their linebackers exposed to the wiley veteran.  With Rob Gronkowski not available because he played on Thursday Witten gets a bump for me as far as playability and if you’re stacking Cowboys he can be a very good edition.

Terrance Williams 4000 vs. Cole Beasley 3400 – I have seen a lot of touting of Beasley as a solid option because of the Giants struggles at the slot corner position and with their safeties and linebackers not at their best.  I think he could have been a real key if the Giants were going to keep pace with the Cowboys or lead the Cowboys on Sunday, but I think the game may be more about the Cowboys controlling the Giants and the Giants struggling a bit with no Victor Cruz and a beat up offensive line.  Because of that i would rather go with Williams as an option make some big downfield plays off of play-action with inexperienced or over-aggressive safeties back there.

Arizona Cardinals Stack –

Carson Palmer 6500 – Palmer is coming back from major knee surgery, but has looked great this preseason.  He was borderline dominant early last year and has a ton of passing weapons at his disposal in Arizona.  This week he gets a very bad New Orleans Saints defense in a game where there may be some big time scoring as Drew Brees and company try to keep pace.

John Brown 4500 – Brown burst on the scene last season before struggling with out Carson Palmer in the lineup.  Brown has elite speed and actually worked with Carson Palmer all summer to get their timing down.  That bodes well as both a fantasy sleeper and as low priced/high upside play week one against a bad Saints secondary.

Larry Fitzgerald 5500 – Honestly I love his pricing this week and I love that he’ll be under owned because most think he’s almost done.  Last season Fitz excelled when Palmer was at the helm and he is a nice complement play as some people may stack Palmer and Brown and then go elsewhere to fill the rest of their squad.

Michael Floyd 5800 – Floyd is a bit over priced with the questions surrounding his injury.  If Floyd was completely healthy I would like him because of his big play ability, but in week one his injury status makes Fitz and Brown more appealing targets.

Philadelphia Eagles Stack

Sam Bradford 6900 – Bradford’s pricing is just about right if you consider the risk versus the reward with his injury history and newness to the offense.  The over under on the game is so high (54) that even if the Falcons defense did look improved, they don’t, you would target this game.  I’m tempted to instead cherry pick this game instead of stack because of the fact that it will be used a bunch.

Jordan Matthews 7200 – Matthews is going to be the go-to-guy this year fir the Eagles in the passing game.  With Matthews occupying the slot it means he will stay away from the Falcons best cover corner, Desmond Trufant.  I love Matthews this week and may be playing him even more over on FanDuel.

Nelson Agholor 5700 – I expect the rookie to be involved early and often, but his match up against Trufant actually means I may be more apt to avoid putting him in my stacks.

Brent Celek 2500 – With Zach Ertz a game time decision Brent Celek could become a nice option as a stackable punt play.  With the high over/under and increase in snaps and possible usage Celek becomes very intriguing. Plus he’ll be owned at less than 1%, which is nice.

Sneaky Stack***

Detroit Lions Stack –

Matthew Stafford 7000 – Stafford is everyone’s favorite whipping boy because of his inconsistency and his maddening mechanics, but he has put up huge games in the past.  If the Lions were opening at home I would expect the Lions stack to get a lot of looks, but because they are on the road they are going to be under used.  The pluses for Stafford are the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson, continued presence of Golden Tate and the additions of last year’s first round pick Eric Ebron and this year’s draft pick in Ameer Abdullah.

Ameer Abdullah 4000 – A running back in your stack?  Yep, Abdullah is going to be featured in the passing game and will get quite a few touches against a less than impressive defense.  Could make the Chargers look silly if he badly outplays Melvin Gordon.

Calvin Johnson 8500 – Let’s make this short…..he’s fricking Megatron!  No bigger ceiling on a WR than what Johnson has the potential to do on the field.

Golden Tate 6300 – Tate is 800 cheaper than Keenan Allen who’s on the other side of the ball this week.  The price is really inviting for a secondary option with big play ability.

Eric Ebron 2900 – Ebron will forever be one of the guys drafted ahead of Odell Beckham Jr., but he can do something to soften that image with a big sophomore season.   The reports have been pretty good on Ebron this off season and the release of Joseph Fauria has to be a pretty good sign that he’s going to get some snaps this year.  The reson I really like him is his ability to stretch the field in the seam and that could mean he makes a few big plays at a nice low price to make his DFS owners happy.

Who I’m Not Stacking and Why:

Miami Dolphins – I like Ryan Tannehill this week, but I have no clue who is going to get snaps and usage besides Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry int he Dolphins offense.  I want some clarity instead of throwing darts this week with as many good options as there are.

Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rodgers is never a bad option, but with Jordy Nelson out for the year and Randall Cobb nursing an AC Joint Sprain it makes playing a stack with the Packers difficult.  Especially with a bunch of the field owning the cheap Davante Adams.

Indianapolis Colts – I can actually see the headline now.  Ultimate Contrarian Play wins 2 MIL.  I’m not buying it, but I’m sure there will be lineups stacking Colts against the Bills knowing that people are shying away from the very tough Bills defense.

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2015 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

2015 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

Holy cow!!!  Week one of the NFL season is finally here!  Usually it seems like the clock moves slower as the Summer wears on and you just want your favorite players not to get hurt, but this year the Summer flew by for me.  Must have been all the fun I had with the girls the last Summer before school started for them.  Now they had their first day of school today and the first game of the NFL season is a day away with Tom Brady officially not suspended.  Woooohoooo!

Week one has some tasty fantasy match ups right out of the gates.  With Eddie Lacy and Aaron Rodgers facing the Bears defense, the Giants and the Cowboys locked and loaded for some fireworks and the Philadelphia Eagles get to take on the Atlanta Falcons in what could be a fantasy points bonanza, fantasy football players could see their guys fly out of the gates.  Baltimore facing Gary Kubiak and the Denver Broncos is very interesting to me as well.  Peyton lit up Baltimore a few years back on a Thursday Night opener in Denver, but I’m not sure Peyton Manning is still the same player.  We shall see.

Some teams that don’t have favorable match ups are the Indianapolis Colts as they go into Buffalo, the New Orleans Saints opening on the road in Arizona, and Seattle going into St. Louis.  Some players I really like could struggle on opening day and who knows, you may get a bargain as a desperately impatient owner looks to sell.

 

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2015 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings

2015 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings

I know it feels lie I just posted my final standard rankings a few minutes ago….oh wait I did!  Well any-who, I magically got my final 2015 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings done just a few minutes later.  Obviously you will see some differences from the standard rankings, but I think my projections in years past used to have a more pronounced difference when it came to standard scoring versus PPR scoring.  You’ll see guys like Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry a bit higher here and definitely see Kendall Wright jump some better Standard scoring players.  Running backs like Danny Woodhead, CJ Spiller, and Shane Vereen get a bump while LaGarrette Blount and Andre Williams slide.  I hope these rankings will help you for your last minute drafts.  Good luck!

 

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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