Josh McCown (QB-CHI)

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Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank.  While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season.  Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value.  The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position.  This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season.  It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season.  Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks.  Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together.  While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey.  Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type.  In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers.  There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

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The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU.  While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC.  Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues.  The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year.  Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two.  I think the continued presence  of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year.  I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool.  He can score when ever he touches the ball.  He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions.  The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season.  The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out.  If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense.  Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher.  His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build.  Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary.  He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.)  and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey.  This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson.  I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case.  If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season.  He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season.  I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4.  If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Week 15

Fantasy Football Week 15

Well that was an interesting week of football. A snow-bowl in Philadelphia, a game that had five lead changes in the last two minutes (Minnesota and Baltimore), and another Tom Brady miracle comeback. Huge injuries to big stars. (Adrian Peterson, Reggie BushMaurice Jones-Drew, and Rob Gronkowski.) Players like Cordarrelle PattersonDa’Rick Rogers, and Justin Hunter had huge performances when they were supposed to be stashes for next year.

Instead of looking back this week, I am only going to look forward to this week’s games and who should be in your lineups.

Josh McCown

Quarterbacks

Let’s start with the latest news about Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is still feeling pain in his shoulder and isn’t medically cleared to play. The fact that the Packers play the Dallas Cowboys this week makes it even harder to swallow. Rodgers presence in the Packers’ lineup would elevate every single offensive player’s fantasy outlook. Jordy Nelson might be the only receiver that would seem safe to keep in your lineups if Rodgers doesn’t play.

Josh McCown has been so red-hot lately that fantasy owners are hoping Jay Cutler’s ankle problems can linger just long enough to help them win a title. McCown has especially been important to Alshon Jeffrey owners, as Jeffrey has flourished with McCown under center. His grasp and control of the offense was on full display on Monday night against a depleted Cowboys defense as he racked up five total touchdowns. This week he faces a tough Cleveland defense that is a little under-manned as well.

Drew Brees bounced back from a miserable game against Seattle with a vintage performance against a tough Carolina defense, once again cementing his place as an almost unbenchable fantasy commodity. His connection with Jimmy Graham has been amazing to watch over the last few years and should keep right on rolling this week against the St. Louis Rams.

Nick Foles showed a great bit of guts last week against the Detroit Lions. Playing in nearly six inches of fresh snow powder, Foles led the Eagles to a victory with a great second-half performance. While his numbers on the day would pale in comparison to Manning, Brees and McCown, they outdid his rival on the field Matthew Stafford by a great deal. Foles is a quarterback one in the fantasy playoffs, but I wouldn’t play him over Brees or Manning. When we start talking about Brady without Gronkowski and Cam Newton then I can get on board.

Speaking of Cam Newton, he didn’t play up to his recent standards last week against theSaints and gets a Jets defense that can stop the run. This may be a game where we see Newton have to throw the ball downfield to Greg Olsen and Brandon Lafell. Ted Ginn may get some looks as well as the Jets have been torched the last few weeks in the deep passing game.

Phillip Rivers is going to be high on everyone’s lists because he will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Denver Broncos offense on Thursday night. I’m not as excited as everyone else. The short week coupled with an opponent that is familiar with the quarterback and the offense he is running doesn’t scream must start to me. The shoulder injury to Keenan Allen and the goose egg put up last week by Ladarius Green have me even more on the fence. I have Rivers as my 11th best quarterback for Week 15.

What do we do with Tom Brady after the Gronkowski injury? You definitely need to bump him down a few spots in your rankings. You simply can’t make up for the loss of Gronkowski with lesser players. Look at the numbers Brady put up early in the year and add 60 yards and half a touchdown for the emergence of Edelman and the return of Vereen and Amendola, but you can’t add much more. I have Brady below Rivers this week and you know Rivers is right on the edge for me as a must start.

Adrian Peterson

Running Backs

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle sprain this past Sunday and it could mean that he misses this week or is at least limited against the Cowboys.James Starks becomes a must handcuff for the Lacy owner.

Adrian Peterson’s mid-foot sprain is a bit more worrisome for for fantasy owners. He is currently wearing a walking boot and ESPN believes he is out this week. His direct backup, Toby Gerhart, suffered a hamstring injury, but it doesn’t seem like it’s a major issue. He should be owned in all leagues.

Reggie Bush once again was injured just when you needed him the most. I’m not even sure that’s an accurate statement, but it feels that way. Bush aggravated a calf injury in warmups before the Lions faced the Eagles and Joique Bell was forced into snow-plow duty. Bell had a nice fantasy day even though he fumbled twice. Bush gets the maximum number of hours to rest his injured calf as the Lions don’t play until Monday night and you should start him if he’s a go.

Maurice Jones-Drew injured his hamstring on Thursday night after he manged to finally break the 100-yard rushing mark in a game this season. While the Jones-Drew injury doesn’t look like a big deal on the surface it will be a major concern for managers in very deep leagues. Even in leagues where you are forced to play three running backs his absence can be major. Jordan Todman is MJD’s direct backup and he is a talented running back in his own right. He could be the spot starter this week against Buffalo.

Rashad Jennings should play this week after missing last week with a concussion. He does get a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The question marks at quarterback for the Raiders also put a damper on any hopes for a big game.

Shane Vereen has been a PPR monster since he came back off of short-term injured reserve. He has 40 receptions in just five games. He has been everything that I hoped he would be when I targeted him in drafts this preseason. I just hope everyone reading this had the patience to keep him on their roster when he was on IR. With Gronkowski on injured reserve Vereen could become even more involved in the passing game.

 

Wide Receivers

Last week I talked up Michael Floyd without really knowing how bad his ankle injury was. Floyd says he played this past week at about 90 percent, but when I watched the film he looked about 75 percent of himself. With two tough matchups coming up the next two weeks he should be considered a wide receiver three. Larry Fitzgerald might continue to benefit, as he did this past week.

Julian Edelman continued his strong play against the Browns and could see a bigger role in the offense with Gronkowski injured. I really like him in PPR leagues as a WR3 where I was counting on some under-performing wide receivers.

Wes Welker has suffered another concussion and it looks like he should miss this week’s game against the San Diego Chargers. When Welker went out it wasn’t a wide receiver who filled in the slot, it was tight end Jacob Tamme.

The Minnesota Vikings look like they are in evaluation mode with Cordarrelle Patterson at the wide receiver position. He has been getting more and more snaps and looks like the offensive weapon everyone envisioned when they saw him at the University of Tennessee. He could be that magic add that wins you a title as flex play where you lost a player to injury.

The Colts seem to have finally figured out what every football fan who has ever watched Darius Heyward-Bey already knew — Heyward-Bey is a terrible wide receiver. Da’Rick Rogers and LaVon Brazill erased any images of Heyward-Bey as they combined for over 150 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers is the more interesting prospect for me and is  is my number three wide receiver pickup for this week.

The last rookie wide receiver that seems to be coming into his own is Justin Hunter.Kendall Wright has an ankle injury and Kenny Britt doesn’t even dress for games anymore. Hunter had eight targets this past week, topped 100 yards and scored for the second time in three weeks. He is a bit boom or bust, but I would pick him up if you are in a desperate situation.

Michael Crabtree played more than 88 percent of San Francisco’s offensive snaps last weekend and had eight targets from Colin Kaepernick. I am still scared to rely on him this week, but I could see using him with his uptick in usage.

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Tight Ends

Let’s talk about the Rob Gronkowski injury and the lingering Jordan Reed concussion.

With both of these top 10 tight ends out or questionable going forward I will give you my replacements from the waiver wire.

Before the preseason even started I was drafting teams and Dennis Pitta was my go to tight end in the middle rounds. Before he injured his hip in the first live practice of the preseason Pitta was being drafted as the seventh tight end off the board in the seventh round of twelve team drafts. Pitta showed that he is still Joe Flacco’s go-to guy in his first game back. Pitta played 36 snaps with the Ravens throwing the ball 33 times. They targeted Pitta 10 times in those 33 plays.

It’s a long shot that this guy is still on your waiver wire, but if he is you should go toCharles Clay next. Clay is currently the fifth-ranked fantasy tight end in PPR leagues yet he isn’t owned in a ton of 10-team leagues. After his big performance last week against Pittsburgh I am a little scared that I would be chasing last week’s points by targeting him first.

Delanie Walker was being scooped up all over the place a few weeks back, but a concussion has seen him dropped in a lot of leagues. He should be back this week and gets to face a Cardinals team that will be without stand out slot corner Tyrann Mathieu. With the chemistry he showed with Ryan Fitzpatrick I would be more than happy to have him in my lineups where I lost Gronkowski.

Garrett Graham is the next tight end that could be a nice fill in for Gronkowski. He has all the factors you look for.in a tight end. He’s in an offense that features a tight end. He is the second option in an offense that can move the ball. The only thing I don’t like is the way Andre Johnson can dominate a game. If Johnson gets going it can be tough to notice if there are any other receivers on the field.

Last but not least is Jacob Tamme. Tamme could be the short term fill-in you are looking for if you are low on Faab Budget money in your leagues or know that you have low waiver priority. Tamme took over in the slot with Welker out and could have a very nice PPR game against San Diego on Thursday night. The only issue is he is truly a one week fill in and then you are back to the drawing board next week.

I want to wish you all luck in your semifinal matchups. (except if you are facing me!)  Make sure you listen to Trick Plays this week because last week we nailed Rod Streaterand Marcel Reese as sleepers that could help your teams in Week 14.

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

Fantasy Football: Week 13 Thoughts

The holidays tend to be stressful for a lot of people. They are supposed to be the times we cherish and look forward to, but in reality the planning and logistics can lead many people to lose their cool. Now imagine throwing in a must-win fantasy football match up into the mix. Your grandmother is asking you to pass the cranberry sauce and you’re screaming at the television as Calvin Johnson, once again, gets tackled at the 1-yard line.

Before we start stuffing our turkey let’s take a look back at week 12 in the NFL.

Nice Surprises

Tiquan Underwood

The Detroit Lions have had a lot of trouble covering receivers lately and this week was no different. The only surprise was that it was Tiquan Underwood who burned them for three receptions for 108 yards and two TDs instead of Vincent Jackson. Underwood and Tim Wright were both nice match up plays in deep leagues last week and they both paid off. The other good thing to come out of that game for fantasy owners and for Tampa fans is that Mike Glennon continues to play mistake-free football.

The San Diego Chargers pulled off a huge upset this past Sunday and their quarterback, Phillip Rivers, once again proved that he is back to being one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league. Rivers was firmly planted on fantasy benches as he was facing a tough Kansas City defense in Kansas City, but put up the best passing numbers of the week of any quarterback in the league. He threw for 392 yards and three touchdowns helping him to become the fourth overall fantasy quarterback through week 12.

The Tennessee Titans were able to carve up the Oakland Raiderssecondary this past Sunday, but it wasn’t just Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker doing the damage. Ryan Fitzpatrick found rookie Justin Hunter six times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Hunter looked to be buried on the depth chart to start the year, but has worked his way into a significant role in their offense. His emergence has helped seal the fate of former Rutgers star Kenny Britt.

The last surprise really came out of no where. Everyone in the fantasy world was excited for the Denver Broncos to go into Foxboro and play the New England Patriots on Sunday night. Fantasy numbers were going to be ringing up faster than a cash register at Walmart on Black Friday. While everyone was hoping Danny Amendola would do his best Wes Welkerimpersonation, it was the old Wes Welker fill-in, Julian Edelman doing his spot on impression. Edelman caught nine balls for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

Disappointments

One of the biggest busts of the weekend was Victor Cruz. The absence of Hakeem Nicks and the strong wind gusts had a lot to do with Cruz’s sub-par numbers. The fumble on his first reception of the game didn’t help him either. Some reason for hope was provided by 4for4.com’s John Paulsen.

 

 

 

Another receiver who had his worst game of the season was Andre Johnson. Johnson caught just two balls for 36 yards as the Texans lost to the Jaguars. Johnson has become more openly frustrated with what’s happening in Houston and I’m a little scared that he’s letting it affect his play. Johnson gets the very physical Aqib Talib this week when he faces the New England Patriots. If Talib does as good a job on Johnson as he did on Demaryius Thomas last week then Johnson could be in for a tough day.

Andrew Luck had one of his worst games as a professional this past weekend. He barely reached a 50 percent completion percentage by going 20 for 39 and only managed 163 yards through the air against a very toughArizona Cardinals defense. The Colts have become so one-dimensional that it is now affecting Luck and his receivers. The lack of a running game has defenses teeing off on passing downs. Coby Fleener continues to play at a tight end 1 level and should be considered a fantasy starter from here on out.

My biggest disappointment has to be Robert Griffin III. Whether it’s his knee holding him up or just a case of him regressing we can no longer keep him in a borderline QB1 category. I really am at a loss for words when it comes to Griffin. I blame it on Adrian Peterson’s performance last year coming off of ACL surgery.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day and the rest of week 13.

I was so looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers carve up the Lion’s secondary this Thanksgiving, but alas, that won’t be the case. Rodgers isn’t cleared for contact and it looks like Matt Flynn may get the start. Flynn looked pretty good in relief this past weekend and should be able to put up good numbers against a bad Detroit secondary. One thing Detroit has been doing well is stopping the run and that means Eddie Lacy won’t be able to build on the momentum of his performance against the Vikings. I still have Lacy as a high end RB2 this week, but he very easily could be an RB1 if he gets in the end zone.

Looking at the other side of the ball Matthew Stafford has quietly been the third-best quarterback in fantasy football this season and is just now getting back a receiver that is actually fantasy relevant as a counterpart to the amazing Calvin Johnson. Nate Burleson had a very nice game coming back from his broken arm and looks like he could settle in as a nice flex play the rest of the season in PPR leagues.

The Giants ran the ball down the Cowboys throats and I expect the Raiders to pick up where the Giants left off. Rashad Jennings has been extremely good since he took over for the injured Darren McFadden and could be a middle of the pack RB1 this Thursday. Rod Streater has been playing well since Matt McGloin took over at quarterback and should be a low end WR3 going forward with McGloin at the helm. In the same game Tony Romo has a tremendous match up and should be able to feature Dez Bryant against a shaky Raiders’ secondary.

Antonio Brown

The Pittsburgh Baltimore night game has slug-fest written all over it. Antonio Brown is on a tear right now for the Pittsburgh Steelers and should be able to handle an improving Ravens‘ secondary. Le’Veon Bell has been very solid as RB2 in both standard and PPR formats, but could be facing one of his tougher tests as Baltimore tends to play tough at home. Ben Roethlisbergerhas been playing at a very high level and should receiver consideration from fantasy owners as a possible replacement for their struggling QB1. On the other side of the ball Ray Rice and the Ravens offensive line continue to struggle running the ball.  They have struggled so badly that the Ravens have turned to back up QB Tyrod Taylor to kick start their running game. Joe Flacco didn’t look very happy lining up at wide receiver, but the Raven need to do whatever it takes to move the ball. Torrey Smith continues to get better as wide receiver and should be nice WR2 for the rest of the season. Hopefully the Ravens will get Dennis Pitta back soon to help open things up for everyone.

One of my favorite match ups this weekend is the bears against the Vikings.Josh McCown has been able to put up very good numbers since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler and this week he has a tremendous match up to exploit. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte have all been able to keep up their production with McCown pulling the trigger. On the other side of the ball Adrian Peterson gets to face aChicago Bears defense that has been an absolute ATM to fantasy running backs. Zac Stacy would have put up 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns last week if he didn’t leave the game concussed in the second quarter. Peterson owes the Bears some payback after struggling with his footing in their earlier match up this season.

Waiver Wire

Zac Stacy owners should pick up Benny Cunningham just in case he doesn’t get cleared for this week. Nate Burleson should be a very high priority for wide receiver needy teams. Michael Crabtree should be owned in all leagues as he was just put on the active roster for the 49ers. The 49ers don’t put the ball in the air all that often so don’t expect big dividends right away.

***I just wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone reading this post a very happy holiday.***

Feel free to ask me any start/sit or trade questions on Twitter @Coachesseror by messaging me on Facebook by liking Coachesser’s Playbook. You can also read my articles at www.coachesser.com and listen to the definitive fantasy football podcast on Itunes or Stitcher Radio by subscribing to the Trick Plays podcast hosted by Micah James (@FFMagicMan) and myself.

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