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DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 28
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DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 28

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DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 28

Busy night on the diamond with 14 teams in action past the 7:07 ET first pitch. In todays article, I will outline what must plays and stay aways you should be aware of as well as some cheap players that will produce for you in the bargain bin.

Must Plays

Sean Manaea – LHP ($7,600) – vs Houston Astros

Sean Manaea is the Athletics’ prized prospect that came over in the Ben Zobrist trade. Manaea has been carving batters up in Triple-A, averaging 10.5 K/9. A strikeout happy pitcher, Manaea will have the opportunity to square off against a strikeout happy lineup. As a wholehe Astros have struckout the most in the majors, a whopping 224 times. Manaea will be a chalky play, so use him accordingly in cash games.

Manny Machado – 3B ($4,200) – vs Chicago White Sox

Manny Machado has been raking at home. He sports a .455 AVG a .512 SLG%. He’s ran into a bit of a slump lately (all while on the road) so many people will be off of him. In DraftKings, we love the long ball and Machado is no stranger to launching one past the fence. Carlos Rodon is who he’ll be facing and Rodon has been prone to making atleast one major mistake a game. Machado should be the man to take advantage of that.

Stay Aways

Jimmy Rollins – SS ($4,100) – @ Baltimore Orioles

Let’s start by saying that Jimmy Rollins is 37 years old. He doesn’t swipe bags and he doesn’t hit homeruns. Banking on him to have a multi-hit game is both risky and not suggested. If you’re going to spend up at the SS position, there are much better names to spend your money on.

Jake Peavey – RHP ($7,500) – @ New York Mets

Jake Peavey is grossly overpriced, especially against the Mets. He’s had one good outing all year and he only racked up 19 DK points. While he doesn’t walk a ton of batters, he doesn’t strike them out either. So even if he gives you a quality start – his ceiling is about 20 DK points.

The Bargain Bin

Juan Nicasio – RHP ($5,800) – vs Cincinnati Reds

The best part about this matchup is the fact that the Reds haven’t figured out how to score on the road. Their 29 runs scored is the lowest number in the National League. Juan Nicasio’s hard hit ball percentage is at the lowest mark of his career (20.8%) and his high K/9 has carried over from last year (10.03 – 9.45). Nicasio is a must play against the power-less reds.

Brandon Drury – 3B/OF ($3,000) – vs Colorado Rockies

Brandon Drury is getting a ton of playing time in Arizona and rightfully so. He launched a 442 foot homerun last night and has a .950 OPS. His walk rate could use a bit of help but if he’s swinging the hot stick, he doesn’t need to walk for DFS purposes.

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB DFS or season long questions – feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 4
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 4

Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 4

There goes Chris Colabello for 80 games. As they say though, one mans loss is another persons gain! That holds especially true for the Toronto Blue Jays. In this week’s Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire article, I’ll be breaking down the biggest must adds, players you can cut ties with, two-start pitchers and the latest trends going into the Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 4!

Must Adds:

Justin Smoak – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays
1% Owned
OPP: 3 vs CHW, 3 @ TB

With Chris Colabello out of the lineup for the foreseeable future due to a suspension, Justin Smoak takes over as the starter at first base. His wOBA is .378 to start the year so he’s having no trouble getting on base, his power numbers (like most of the Jays lineup) just haven’t come around yet. In deep mixed leagues, at 1% owned, Smoak is a low-risk high-reward player you can “wait-and-see” with.

Jordy Mercer – SS – Pittsburgh Pirates
5% Owned
OPP: 4 @ COL, 3 @ CIN

Against lefties, Jordy Mercer is the leadoff man for the Pirates. Against righties, he slides down the lineup a bit. Regardless of where he hits, he seems to be producing. His K% is down from 17.9% to 13.0% and his BB% is up from 6.3% to 9.7%. With 11 RBI to start the year, Mercer is producing in a position that is terribly hard to find production from.

Drops:

J.T. Realmuto – C – Miami Marlins
32% Owned
OPP: 4 @ LAD, 3 @ MIL

J.T. Realmuto’s offensive struggles are supposed to be highlighted by his base stealing abilities. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he hasn’t been coming through. There seems to be no signs of life in his bat, either. Last year, he was hitting the ball hard 29.3% of the time. This year he’s down to 15%. With catchers seemingly coming out of nowhere this year – it’s safe to cut ties with Realmuto in 10-12 team leagues.

Mallex Smith – OF – Atlanta Braves
12% Owned
OPP: 2 vs BOS, 2 @ BOS, 3 @ CHC

The Mallex Smith hype has certainly worn off. He was called up as a highly touted prospect and many jumped to the waiver wire to scoop him up. He has an alarming 15 strikeouts in 37 at bats. He was supposed to make up for any offensive struggles by scorching the basepaths. Two stolen bases just isn’t going to cut it.

Two Start Pitchers:

Kendall Graveman – RHP – Oakland Athletics
7% Owned
OPP: Apr 25 @ DET, Apr 30 vs HOU

Kendall Graveman is the most intriguing option out there this week. Only five SP have both a 60% or higher groundball percentage and a 10% or higher swinging strikeout rate. Noah Syndergaard, Felix Hernandez, Steven Strasburg and Masahiro Tanaka are the first four and Graveman rounds out the list (H/T to @StephenNickrand for the stat!). He’s been implementing his slider more often (up to 13.7% from 8.4% last year) and that’s been dancing around the strike zone.

NOTE: Graveman is the only two start pitcher this week but an honorable mention goes to Ross Stripling (25% owned). If Stripling dazzles against Miami, scoop him up for his appearance against the lowly Padres later in the week.

Trends:

Blake Snell – LHP – Tampa Bay Rays
34% Owned
Triple-A Durham

Unless it’s a keeper league – I’m not usually into stashing prospects but Blake Snell has changed my mind. Used for a spot start, the Rays top prospect went five innings giving up one run and striking out six against the Yankees. The Rays desperately need some pitching help as it stands. Chris Archer hasn’t been performing well (Don’t panic Archer owners – he’ll come around) and Jake Odorizzi hasn’t been the greatest either. Blake Snell has shown the Rays what he can do and he’s definitely worth a stash in 12 man mixed leagues.

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB DFS or season long questions, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 22
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DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 22

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DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 22

Packed slate tonight on the diamond with every single team in action. In todays article, I will outline what must plays and stay aways you should be aware of as well as some cheap players that will produce for you in the bargain bin.

Must Plays

Matt Moore – LHP ($7,900) – @ New York Yankees

After one shaky start to kick off the year, Matt Moore seems to have found a groove. After two lost years due to injury, he’s found his 2013 all star form early on in the season. His fastball velocity is actually the highest he’s ever had it in his career (92.6 MPH) and he’s been mixing in an effective knuckle curve. As a team, the Yankees are 25th in total bases (182) so Moore should be able to get to work against a slow-starting New York lineup. (editor’s note be careful of weather)

Carlos Correa – SS ($4,700) – vs Boston Red Sox

With Trevor Story being $400 more, now is a great time to play Carlos Correa in your cash lineups. His isolated power (ISO) is still above .200 and his plate discipline is actually improved (Only swinging at 23.5% of pitches outside the zone compared to last years rate of 32.4%). He just needs one good explosion and against Steven Wright who doesn’t strike many out – Correa should return value tonight.

Stay Aways

Jeff Samardzjia – RHP ($9,300) – vs Miami Marlins

Jeff Samardzjia’s price, combined with his outcome so far this season makes him a trap. While he might get you a win because he plays for San Francisco, he’s not going to strike a ton out and he’s also going to give up his fair share of hits and walks. His velocity is also below 93 MPH for the first time since 2010. All of this equals no value at $9,300.

Tyler White – 1B ($4,400) – vs Boston Red Sox

Tyler White hasn’t had a multi-hit game since April 11th. It seems like if he’s not going yard – he’s not getting value. He has five strikeouts in his last four games to go along with an 0-4 showing on the 21st against Texas. At his price tag, there are tons of safer options out there.

The Bargain Bin

Nick Tropeano – RHP ($6,100) vs Seattle Mariners

Filling in for the injured Andrew Heaney, Nick Tropeano has done an admirable job. He’s only given up one earned run in 10.2 innings of work. In his career against the current Mariners lineup, he’s only given up the long ball once and it was against Nelson Cruz. At $6,100, you save a lot of money and are pretty much guaranteed to hit value.

Russell Martin – C ($3,300) vs Oakland Athletics

Russell Martin has run into a bit of bad luck to start the year. Mechanically, there’s nothing wrong except for the fact that when he hits it hard, it’s always right to an outfielder. Speaking of hitting it hard… He’s hitting the ball hard at a higher percentage this year (34.6%) compared to any year in his career. Don’t forget that he slugged 23 a year ago.

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

Ryan Braun Problems

Well folks, we are headed into the All Star break and it’s time to take stock of the first half of the fantasy baseball season. I am currently leading or in second place in all of my leagues, but I am in no mood to celebrate.

Why, you ask?

His name is Ryan Braun.

I was unlucky enough to pick third or fourth in four different leagues this year, and you guessed it…I drafted Braun across the board. I reassured myself with every draft that Braun is a beast. “Don’t worry Dennis, even if anything comes of this PED stuff it won’t be until after the season,” I said to myself. My mutterings became like white noise in the background as I was walking out of drafts with an ACME sized anvil hanging over my head.

You are probably saying, “Hey buddy you knew the risk. Why should I listen to you complain?”

You don’t have to listen. You can go back to your cozy beds filled with the Miguel Cabrera’s of the world. I’ll just be tossing some of my worthless Barry Bonds 1987 Fleer Rookie cards on the fire and reminiscing about times gone by when fantasy owners didn’t have to also be labor lawyers in their spare time.

It’s true that I knew the risk when I drafted him, but who can blame me? I’m a gambler at heart and I have the ATM receipts from Atlantic City to prove it (NOTE: I seem to have misplaced the massive deposit slips I promised my wife though). I saw a mark and I took it down. How could I turn down the clear cut 2nd or 3rd best player at #3 or #4 overall in every draft? It’s like Braun and I were destined to be together.

That last part scares me a little.

The entire reason I stopped doing fantasy baseball back in the late 1990’s in the first place was because of guys like Bret Boone and Barry Bonds. Drafting back then was like playing a dart toss carnival game at the Jersey shore. You would show up to a draft and toss a dart and hope the balloon (player) was filled with juice. Your eighth round pick might break records that were set during the Deadball era. They were wild times.

Now you have to check in Vegas’s black book as well as your draft day cheat sheets just to make a pick. (I think only NBA players are in that actually – see Charles Barkley and Antoine Walker).

I wouldn’t even be sweating the Biogenesis stuff so much if Braun could just play. When he was playing early in the season he wasn’t himself, but he was still very useful. Since then he’s been on every list possible. The disabled list, the bereavement list, the cheating-lying scumbag list. Oh wait that list hasn’t been announced yet, but has been leaked more times than if Pam and Tommy did another sex tape.

Braun has his injured thumb for an excuse, but it’s his head I’m worried about. How do you stare down a 90 MPH fastball when you know your entire legacy and life’s work hangs in the balance of an ongoing investigation? If it is proven that he cheated, Braun will face the biggest backlash the sport has ever seen, hands down. The common fan will never forgive Braun for going after his specimen collector Dino Laurenzi, Jr at a press conference when he happened to win his appeal.

I am more worried about the Brewers than my own fantasy baseball teams. It’s not like they can whip out a Yankee-sized checkbook and replace him. The way their farm system looks makes Mets’ fans pump out their chests. A season-long suspension might single-handedly kill baseball in Milwaukee. The Brewers chose to make him the face of the franchise. He rewarded them with an MVP and they rewarded him with the biggest contract in their history. Now he may kill their playoff hopes for the next ten years.

Don’t cry for me Argentina! Oops, I meant fantasy baseball gods. My fantasy teams won’t be in as bad a shape as the Brewers if Braun gets suspended. I made back-up plans. I even made back-up plans for my back-up plans and should at least keep my head above water. I traded for Chris Davis in the leagues that I could get him early and at a reasonable rate to make up for the homeruns and RBIs. I traded for Desmond Jennings and Starling Marte to make up for the stolen bases. I even took a shot on Jason Heyward using an ultimate buy low package where I sent two waiver wire pick-ups for Cole Hamels and Heyward.

I may be able to fill out a line-up, but I was much happier when Braun was stashed on my disabled list and I didn’t have to think about him every day (like the Yankees with Alex Rodriguez rehabbing in Tampa). Now he’s on the bereavement list and I can’t even clear a bench spot. In my three daily lineup change leagues that has become a big problem.

Braun is in fantasy roster limbo. He could come back after the break and play like an angel delivering my team to a championship while he fights to defend his name. He could be a demon that gets cast off of my roster when his appeal goes down in flames. Or he could just hang around my bench popping his head in and out of my lineup from day to day resembling a shell of his former self.

Either way, the torture of fielding terrible trade offers for Braun has put me in my own little circle of hell. You wouldn’t believe the names that have filled my inbox. At this point I would be happy if I got offered B.J. Upton for Ryan Braun. Not that I would take it. It would just be nice to be offered someone that was actually drafted instead of picked up off the waiver wire the day before.

This article originally appeared at www.fantasyjudgment.com as part of an ongoing diary series.

Fantasy League Commissioner Wanted

You don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone. While Cinderella’s early 90’s power ballad may have made me queasy at the time, truer words were truly never spoken. I had no idea how lucky I was that my buddy from age five had been our fantasy football league commissioner for all these years. He was truly unbiased and thoughtful in every situation. Whether it was rule changes, votes for new members, or controversial trades, he always put the integrity of the league first. Over these last 15 years, I now realize I have taken him for granted. I never knew how much he improved my quality of life until I started venturing out into new leagues recently.

I feel like all three major sports leagues in the U.S. could take some notes from my old commissioner. Roger Goodell with the NFL has put himself front and center in all things and only cares about his own legacy. Bud Selig has made MLB an old buddy-buddy league that is full of underhanded dealings and biased rulings. David Stern walks around believing that he made the NBA a must see league, even though it was the league that Magic, Bird and Jordan made. I’m not talking about Gary Bettman because, well this isn’t Canada. Is it?

I have joined a bunch of different leagues the last few years and found the commissioners have closely resembled at least one of the big three. In one league, rules were changed after the draft that clearly benefited the commissioner and his cronies. His Bud Selig impression was not appreciated and I was quickly a one and done league champ. The worst situation was when I joined a dynasty fantasy football league that was clearly run by a Roger Goodell clone. Every correspondence was rank with arrogance. The straw that broke the camel’s back was when he traded for Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant and gave up Eli Manning and Michael Turner. I died a little inside when I emailed the entire league to ask for some back up with my protests to this trade-rape, and found no backers. When I pressed one league member about why he didn’t protest the trade he said, “It wouldn’t matter if we protested, the commissioner has complete autonomy over the league and will beat down any challenges in the ranks.”

Situations and priorities change, and so does life. Three kids later, an ever growing workload, and free time that would only be envied by an indentured servant has made it impossible for me to take on the responsibility of being a league commissioner. I feel like I would be unbiased, fair, and decent, but alas I am not available for the job.

The ones that are available sadly don’t measure up. Think about it…who in their mid-thirties to early forties has time to run fantasy leagues? Single guys in their thirties or forties have the time, but do we really want them in charge? They are probably single for a reason. They have either never had their stuff together long enough to impress a mate or have been found wanting by the opposite sex (or same sex) when given the chance. Whether they lied, cheated, or stole none of these traits make for a good commissioner. Ideally, you want your commissioner to be like the dad from Growing Pains, not Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons (Worst Commissioner Ever).

My real frustration comes from the laziness that has permeated some of these leagues. Instead of having an honest commissioner make fair decisions on trades, I have been forced to deal with league votes. How can a league vote ever be fair to a team in a playoff position? It’s like having ten angry jurors deciding your fate. Teams ahead of you have the bias of not wanting you to catch them. Teams below you want to catch up to you and will not be happy if you strengthen your squad. Then there is the team you are playing that week that has the ultimate bias.

Recently I made a trade that had to be put to a league vote. The GM that I was playing that week told me he was voting against the trade solely out of spite. The trade would have given me a little more power and he didn’t want me to make up a disadvantage in homeruns that week. I had to sit on my hands and hope everyone made a fair and unbiased decision. It was gut-wrenching, but it eventually passed. (P.S. Chris Davis hit a two-run homerun on Sunday for me to tie in homeruns and give me the RBI category)

So if you are reading this and feel you are a man among men, please step up to the plate and be a league commissioner. Fantasy leagues need you, I need you, and more importantly, America needs you!

This article also appears at www.FantasyJudgment.com as part of a weekly series called Coach Esser’s Diary.

Don’t Drink The Sand

The perception of starting pitching depth on a fantasy baseball team is the same mirage that exists with respect to depth at running back in fantasy football leagues. You are always one pitch or one carry away from being in a bind. With pitchers, it could be age and frailty such as with Andy Pettitte and Jake Peavy. Or perhaps it is flawed mechanics that have caused your fantasy ace, Stephen Strasburg, to start drawing comparisons to Mark Prior. From forearm tightness to sore shoulders, fantasy GMs are constantly trying to avoid season-ending injuries to their starting pitchers. On the other hand, running backs are just a few fumbles or a lethal hit away from being relegated to the bench. The mere sight of your player on the week’s injury report will send many GM’s running to the waiver wire. In the end, GM’s who thought they had plenty of depth at the position realize how shallow their rosters really are.

Coming into this fantasy baseball season, the best advice I received was to grab as many quality starting pitchers as possible. Sure, draft the great position players early but make sure I stockpile as many arms as I could because you never know when injuries may occur. I heeded this advice throughout the season thus far and picked up additional quality starting pitching even though I thought I had sufficient depth at the position to start the year. I drafted Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Julio Teheran, Andy Pettitte, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren. I quickly dropped Hammel and Haren for Shelby Miller and Justin Masterson. I then dropped Pettitte for Patrick Corbin as I didn’t want another injury prone starter in my rotation.

We all knew Peavy was eventually going to be on the disabled list…we just didn’t know when. Drafting Peavy was the equivalent of drafting Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden in a fantasy football league. Doing either of these things requires you back them up with quality options. Peavy had been performing well up until his last two outings. I was relieved it was an injury (non-displaced rib fracture) and not ineffectiveness that caused his recent poor outings.

Well, the dreaded time has come for many fantasy owners including myself. While I lost Peavy to the DL, he was not alone. Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg and Brendon Morrow were also placed on the disabled list. Morrow’s DL stint is a blessing after the way he has pitched. But for Cueto, he just recently came back and started to look like his old self. However, Strasburg is the one that scares me the most. He was likely drafted very high and was counted on to perform at an almost Verlander/Kershaw level. That hasn’t happened up to date and now he is injured again. I’m pretty sure GM’s are cursing at themselves watching Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki tearing it up while Strasburg is on the mend.

I am happy to roll out my rotation week after week and try and weather this injury storm. I am reluctant to trade my pitching because this is what can happen. I may think I’m six deep at quality starters, but I’m always one pitch, batted ball, or slip in the shower away from combing the waiver wire.

This article was originally featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com