Trevor Story – The Fantasy Sports Coach

DraftKings MLB DFS Must Plays | Stay Aways | The Bargain Bin | April 22

Packed slate tonight on the diamond with every single team in action. In todays article, I will outline what must plays and stay aways you should be aware of as well as some cheap players that will produce for you in the bargain bin.

Must Plays

Matt Moore – LHP ($7,900) – @ New York Yankees

After one shaky start to kick off the year, Matt Moore seems to have found a groove. After two lost years due to injury, he’s found his 2013 all star form early on in the season. His fastball velocity is actually the highest he’s ever had it in his career (92.6 MPH) and he’s been mixing in an effective knuckle curve. As a team, the Yankees are 25th in total bases (182) so Moore should be able to get to work against a slow-starting New York lineup. (editor’s note be careful of weather)

Carlos Correa – SS ($4,700) – vs Boston Red Sox

With Trevor Story being $400 more, now is a great time to play Carlos Correa in your cash lineups. His isolated power (ISO) is still above .200 and his plate discipline is actually improved (Only swinging at 23.5% of pitches outside the zone compared to last years rate of 32.4%). He just needs one good explosion and against Steven Wright who doesn’t strike many out – Correa should return value tonight.

Stay Aways

Jeff Samardzjia – RHP ($9,300) – vs Miami Marlins

Jeff Samardzjia’s price, combined with his outcome so far this season makes him a trap. While he might get you a win because he plays for San Francisco, he’s not going to strike a ton out and he’s also going to give up his fair share of hits and walks. His velocity is also below 93 MPH for the first time since 2010. All of this equals no value at $9,300.

Tyler White – 1B ($4,400) – vs Boston Red Sox

Tyler White hasn’t had a multi-hit game since April 11th. It seems like if he’s not going yard – he’s not getting value. He has five strikeouts in his last four games to go along with an 0-4 showing on the 21st against Texas. At his price tag, there are tons of safer options out there.

The Bargain Bin

Nick Tropeano – RHP ($6,100) vs Seattle Mariners

Filling in for the injured Andrew Heaney, Nick Tropeano has done an admirable job. He’s only given up one earned run in 10.2 innings of work. In his career against the current Mariners lineup, he’s only given up the long ball once and it was against Nelson Cruz. At $6,100, you save a lot of money and are pretty much guaranteed to hit value.

Russell Martin – C ($3,300) vs Oakland Athletics

Russell Martin has run into a bit of bad luck to start the year. Mechanically, there’s nothing wrong except for the fact that when he hits it hard, it’s always right to an outfielder. Speaking of hitting it hard… He’s hitting the ball hard at a higher percentage this year (34.6%) compared to any year in his career. Don’t forget that he slugged 23 a year ago.

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 2

With the baseball season underway, it’s all about recognizing trends. We’re already seeing players quickly trend upwards and players just not living up to expectations. A player like Trevor Story is producing in ways that many baseball fans have never seen before which is causing owners to have quite the dilemma. I look to help you figure these things out in my Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 2.

As the inaugural fantasy baseball article, this is what you can expect from this week forward!
Must Adds: Players who have great match ups who you can definitely pick up and add to your lineup.
Drops: Under performers or players who have little to no fantasy value for you this week
Two Start Pitchers: Pitchers who have to starts in a week that can help you maximize value.
Trends: Who should you be watching right now? Is it time to sell high or buy low?
Also, I will be basing all ownership off of Yahoo!.

Must Adds:

Zack Cozart – SS – Cincinnati Reds
5% Owned
Schedule: 3 @ CHC, 3 @ STL

Zack Cozart won the leadoff position right out of spring training. Billy Hamilton still can’t pull together a respectable batting average. Cozart is an interesting player to have in your lineup. He’s not a traditional leadoff man in terms of speed but he makes up for it with his power. Before going down to injury last year, his isolated slugging rate was .201. To put that into comparison, Troy Tulowitzki’s career ISO is .212. Until Hamilton can work his way up to the leadoff position, Cozart is a great option at generally one of the weakest fantasy positions available.

Wilson Ramos – C – Washington Nationals
34% Owned
Schedule: 4 vs ATL, 3 @ PHI

If you’re looking for a replacement behind the plate as a Kyle Schwarber owner, look no further. Wilson Ramos had a terrible year last year. You and I would also have a terrible season if your vision decreased so badly that you needed off-season Lasik eye surgery in order to fix it. Against two bottom feeding teams, Ramos will have a great opportunity to really show fantasy owners what he can do. It wouldn’t be surprising if he finished the year as a top 10 catcher.

Drops:

Byron Buxton – OF – Minnesota Twins
53% Owned
Schedule: 3 vs CHW, 3 vs LAA

If you’re in a keeper league – ignore this completely. If you’re in a redraft league, you don’t want to miss this. Byron Buxton was likely drafted because of his promise. He certainly wasn’t drafted because of his shoddy spring training performance. Up until April 9th, Buxton has struck out nine times in his first 14 at bats. Until he shows a glimpse of that so-called promise, you’re better off with just about anyone.

Brett Lawrie – 2B/3B – Chicago White Sox
47% Owned
Schedule: 3 @ MIN, 3 @ TB

Brett Lawrie looks like, well, Brett Lawrie – and that’s not a good thing for fantasy owners. Last year he finished with the highest strikeout rate of his career (23.9%) and this year he’s on pace to beat that. He’s also batting in the bottom half of an otherwise weak (outside of Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier) White Sox lineup. There are better streaming options out there.

Two Start Pitchers:

Matt Moore – LHP – Tampa Bay Rays
39% Owned
Schedule: April 12 vs CLE, April 17 vs CHW

It’s easy to forget that Matt Moore was an All-Star in 2013. His first start admittedly wasn’t the greatest, but he ran into a Blue Jays offence that was clicking (more specifically, the reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson’s bat). His velocity in spring training mixed with his first start look promising though. After seeing his velocity regress in 2014-2015 due to injury among other things, his velocity is actually higher now than it was in 2013.

Shane Greene – RHP – Detroit Tigers
7% Owned
Schedule: April 12 vs PIT, April 17 vs HOU

Shane Greene had a great spring, a good enough spring to get the chance to hold the fort down until Daniel Norris returns. Brad Ausmus has also even said that he might keep Greene in the rotation even when Norris comes back. Greene is an odd duck. From 2014 to 2015 his k/9 went down by 4 and his ERA balooned. He tried to rework a lot of his stuff in 2015 and ended up setting himself back even more. It looks like in the spring he figured a lot of his stuff out. He posted a very impressive line of 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA and 23 SO to close out the spring.

Trends:

Trevor Story – SS – Colorado Rockies
92% Owned
Schedule: 3 vs SF, 3 @ CHC

Trevor Story is off to a start that nobody has seen in a long time. Let’s throw it back. 2004 Barry Bonds, 1.422 OPS. Current day Trevor Story, 1.417 OPS (Thanks to The Ace of MLB Stats on Twitter). Story has also homered in each of his team’s first four games to start a season. Other names on that list? Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Mark McGwire and Willie Mays. I think you get the point. Story is off to a start that is completely unsustainable by any means. As soon as Jose Reyes returns, he’ll immediately challenge Story for at bats. With all the hype around him, why wouldn’t you be willing to sell high? Let’s remember that his ADP was around 254, aka Adam Lind territory. I’ve seen deals such as Story + Verlander for Scherzer + Segura. If you can package Story in a deal to land a big fish, you need to pull the trigger. I can promise you, he’s not Carlos Correa 2.0.

Also, check out my appearance on The FNTSY Sports Network with Pat Mayo. We chat the curious case of Trevor Story, two start pitchers and more!

Thanks for reading! If you have any MLB season long or DFS questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT