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FanDuel Quick Picks for Week 2 NFL DFS

Week 1, or the information week as I often think of it, is complete. The information accrued is essential for not only week 2, but for the entire season. Things change rapidly in the NFL. If you won last week that’s great, but Fanduel has a funny way of humbling you quickly. Here are this week’s Quick Picks for Fanduel tournament contests with a little bit of an updated format.

3 New Things I learned Last Week:

#1 – Derek Carr may not have scored many touchdowns in week one, but he looked poised and the breakout season is very real.

#2 – The Browns are even worse than I thought they would be. Just ugly.

#3 – The Rams offense is predictably too one dimensional so curb your enthusiasm (new season is coming out!) on Gurley.

3 Things I already knew and were confirmed:

#1 – Antonio Brown can not be stopped.

#2 – The Colts secondary is awful and their offensive line can not protect Luck. They should not let him play vs. Denver this week.

#3 – If you are sure which Chiefs RB will get a majority of the snaps then take that RB.

Rapid Fire:

Player I gotta have this weekOdell Beckham Jr. – WR – Giants ($9400) Saints rank 29th against the pass and last year Odell torched them last year to the tune of 8-130-3 TDs. I’d pay the price for him because I see value elsewhere and you don’t want to miss the party.

Cheap player I’ve talked myself into all week long and firmly believe he will do wellstrong></ Jesse James – TE – Steelers ($4500) Last year Heath Miller did very well in the two meetings (20-171 combined) against the Bengals. In his debut as a starter last week, Jesse James caught 5 of his 7 targets for 31 yards and no TDs. The Bengals defense will do a better job on the other Steeler skill players than the Redskins did leaving James an opportunity for a big day at a small price.

Value Play – Michael Crabtree – WR – Raiders ($6200) This game should be offensively entertaining right from the start. The Falcons gave up four TDs to Winston last week at home and will be even worse traveling across the country to take on a determined Raider squad who will not be taking their foot off of the gas. I see no reason to spend the extra $1700 on Amari Cooper when there’s a good chance at $6200 Crabtree will put up similar or better numbers. For reference, Crabtree caught 7 of 9 targets for 87 yards last week.

Player I’d stay away from – Adrian Peterson – RB – Vikings ($8200) There are just so many more enticing options at RB this week. Also,the Packers are very good at stopping the run and historically very good at limiting Adrian Peterson (last year 112 rushing yards in two games). A slight ankle injury and questions at the QB position add to the troubles here.

“The Sure Thing” (if there is such a thing) – AJ Green – WR – Bengals ($8900) The challenge isn’t deciding whether Green should be in your lineup this week, rather, figuring out a way to squeeze him and Beckham into the same lineup. Jesse James’ salary will help you do that! His stats last week were awesome catching 12 of his 13 targets for 180 yards and a TD. Historically, he does well vs. the Steelers. Last year he went 11-118-1 at Pittsburgh and 6-132-1 at home. This rivalry has grown and the best players tend to rise up in that atmosphere.

The Longshots:

Trevor Siemian – Broncos – QB – ($6400) The Broncos can do whatever they want to the Colts. It would behoove them to let Siemian get a confident boost by throwing 4 TDs and running in for one.

Bears D – ($4,400) They held their own vs. the Texans on the road last week while registering 2 sacks and an interception. Carson Wentz might be a little shaky in his first road game and might cough up a few picks and/or fumbles. Bears are a great way to help you fit multiple high-priced players at the other skill positions.

Phillip Dorsett – ($5500) Colts should be trailing for most of this game. Dorsett has some great speed creating a challenge for even the best defenses in the league. If Luck isn’t knocked out of this game due to injury early on Dorsett could rack up some big time points.

Thank you for taking the time to read this and best of luck this week!

Fanduel Quick Picks 2016 Week 1

FANDUEL QUICK PICKS FOR WEEK 1 NFL DFS

By Brian Quick

Praise Jesus football is back! That was a scary seven months. While fantasy football leagues with your old buddies, new buddies, and work buddies is fun I can’t lie to myself anymore. DFS leagues are way more interesting. Week one can be very tricky as there are so many unknowns. I always like to look at fantasy drafts from a year prior just to see how much has changed in just one year. I muse at watching my cohorts with their cheat sheets at drafts knowing that the names on that sheet are mostly in the wrong order. Nobody knows what unknowns will emerge. That’s what makes fantasy sports so compelling. Below will be some Quick Tips for Fanduel Tournament Style Competitions.

PLAYER PICKS FOR WEEK 1

Quick Tip #1 – Derek Carr – QB – $7700 – The Saints were ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in defense last year. While I believe the Saints D will be better this year (can’t really be worse) this game still should be a wide open offensive show. If Drew Brees sets a strong offensive pace then Derek Carr should match or exceed him.

Quick Tip #2 – Lamar Miller – RB – Houston ($7600) – Lamer Miller finally escapes the chaos of Miami for a better situation in Houston. Expect the Bears to be messy on both sides of the ball. Miller is a three down back and could score on multiple occasions as the Texans set the tone for what should be a strong season for them. This might be the cheapest you see Miller all year so make sure you’re a buyer this week.

Quick Tip #3 Todd Gurley – RB – Rams ($8900) You pick Todd Gurley because he’s a stud and he’s going to destroy Chip Kelly and the 49ers defense. The niners were ranked 29th against the run last year and I have no idea how they are going to stop Gurley at any point during the night. Imagine if you don’t take Gurley and you are ahead of lots of people who have him. That will be a terrible feeling going into that late game on Monday night knowing you will wake up the next day having been usurped by so many Gurley owners. Take him and never look back.

Quick Tip #4 – TJ Yeldon – RB -Jaguars – ($6100) Yeldon will have to split time with Chris Ivory but should have plenty of opportunities to perform against a weaker Packers run defense. If Aaron Rogers has the Packers offense rolling then Yeldon will catch passes as the Jags try to keep up with the pace. His price tag is low enough to fit him into lineups with some other high priced players with enough upside to make sense.

Quick Tip #5 -Spencer Ware – RB – Chiefs – $5400 Jamaal Charles is most likely OUT for this Sunday making Ware at this price almost an automatic play. The Chargers ranked 27th against the run last year and the Chiefs love to run the ball. While there may be some intrusions by West and Davis, Ware should be the lead back and do the most damage.

THE LONGSHOTS

Below are 5 longshots that have a chance to hit this week along with a small blurb about each one and their Fanduel price. Adding any one of these guys is like adding a longshot into horse racing exacta or trifecta.

Robert Griffin III – QB – $6900 – I’m covered by the “longshots” title so I can put anyone I want here including RG III. I can see the storyline now about how RGIII makes his return with 4 TDs vs. the Eagles. He didn’t look terrible in the preseason. A short TD to Barnidge, a deep one to Coleman, Duke Johnson breaking a screen pass for a long TD, and a rushing TD of his own is fathomable.

Isaiah Crowell – RB – Browns (5,700) – This is the start of my “play guys vs. the Eagles” strategy. The Eagles ranked dead last in defense against the run last year and they are clearly a rebuilding franchise. I’m intrigued by Duke Johnson too, but Crowell is cheaper and should get more touches. More touches vs. the Eagles mathematically makes sense as the better choice.

Dwayne Allen – TE – $5500- He’s going to play a lot because the Colts need him to block and help out that O-Line. Will he be able to be productive as a pass catcher? A good Luck manages to find his tight end. Allen also has a history of scoring on week 1.

Giants D – $4400 – Giants’ rebuilt defense better be able to create turnovers from Cowboy rookies at key positions.

Tyler Boyd – WR – $5600 – I’m not worried about Brandon Lafell ahead of him on the depth chart. I’d like to think that on the varsity level of the NFL the best players play the most. The Jets will spend their efforts controlling AJ Green leaving Jet fans to wonder who the heck this Boyd guy is catching all of these passes. Keep an eye on him anyway as the year progresses.

Enjoy that feeling this Sunday morning. You know exactly what I’m talking about. Make sure there are no kid’s birthday parties to attend etc. etc. It is your day and you deserve it. Don’t let anyone try to tell you differently. Thank you once again for taking the time to read this. Remember, this is early week advice, so make sure you read up as the week goes on and make necessary changes to your lineups before game times. Please follow me on twitter @QuickRotoTips.

Flex Leagues Standard Auction Strategy and Review

First and foremost, it is an honor to be asked to participate in the Flex Leagues the last three years.  Jake Ciely, for some reason, keeps inviting me back to compete against the best in the fantasy football business.  This year I had to make sure I made the trip to Washington D.C. to pick up my 2015 Flex Standard League Championship Belt.  I got scared for a second when I saw Eric Young in the corner of the Sirius XM Studios looking like he was ready to break a chair over my head for the fantastic belt FantasyJocks belt, but alas, EY was just eyeing up what he was going to be competing for in the PPR Snake Draft.

With any draft, whether it be auction or snake, I always want to make sure I go into it with a fresh mindset.  Too bad for me the evil temptress named Jack Daniels had other plans.  A bunch of us booked a hotel room near the Nationals Stadium and the roof top bar beckoned as soon as we all get settled on Friday night.  We drank and caught up and took in a game between the San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals.  After the festivities, I was in no shape to draft, or bid, or do anything.  I was toast!!  At one point I’m pretty sure I was like Frank “The Tank” thinking everyone was following me as I went from one bar to the other.   The reason I told this story is to implore you to not follow my example but to instead rest up before your upcoming fantasy football drafts.

The next morning I was a mess.  I was clutching my computer bag on the Uber ride to SiriusXM Studios like it was my life preserver as the Titanic was sinking.  I walked into the studio with only one thing on my mind, HYDRATE!  Orange juice, apple juice, water, anything to help how I was feeling.  I had an hour to get myself together before the auction started and I needed every last second.

I took my seat in between Chad Parsons and Corey Parson and began to set up my little auction bunker.  I pulled up my Values Spreadhseet.  I pulled up my Teams and Picks Spreadsheet.  I checked the formulas to make sure I knew how much every team had for their max bids.  I scanned the room and realized I was in for a tough morning with the group seated around me.  They were locked and loaded.

Steve Gardner was the auctioneer and Matt Camp and Joe Dolan were going to be breaking down the action as we went along for SiriusXMFantasy audiences.

Flex Leagues Standard Auction Strategy and Review

As the clock ticked towards 11 AM we all took a deep breath and the madness began.

Flex Standard Auction League

$200 Budget
QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR
Flex (RB,WR or TE)
Flex (RB,WR or TE)
TE
Defense
NO KICKERS!!
6 Bench Spots  (Short Bench- Waiver Wire is used as an extension of your bench with a $100 FAAB being used.)

Strategy #1   The main strategy I had going in was adjusting pricing based on this being a league of experts.  Each and every draft the last three years QBs and TEs have been undervalued during drafts and I thought it could be even more pronounced in the auction draft.  By pulling money out of my QB and TE Values I was able get truer values on my RBs and WRs.  Your leagues will, of course, be different, but it will be useful for you to adjust pricing based on your specific league tendencies.  If your long time home league over values QBs, pump up their prices and adjust down at the other positions.  This way your not caught having no money left towards the end of your auction.

Strategy #2  Get involved on the early RBs and WRs when they are put on the block.  Almost every time I do an auction someone walks away kicking themselves that they didn’t bid on the first or second player off the board.  Inflation at positions aren’t in effect and you are on a player before the tier runs out.  Those RBs and WRs that go up at the end of tier end up costing an arm and leg compared to the early guys.  (Ray Summerlin of Rotoworld touched on this in his piece as well.)

Strategy #3  Let the auction values create my strategy for team building.  Whether it was ZeroRB, 1RB/WRHeavy, or Gronk and values I wanted the values to tell me how I wanted my team to be built.

Strategy #4 Spend all of my money!!!!  Make sure that you are on top of when those last startable players are being bid on and pay up if you have to fill your 10 starting slots.

Strategy #5  If multiple teams start showing that they are going ZeroRB, start putting up the usual ZeroRB targets early in the process.  Put up Rashad Jennings, Jonathan Stewart, and Frank Gore and see if they take the bait and drive up the price on those players.  It’s a good way to keep ZeroRB teams from being comfortable.

Before we even knew what was going on Jeff Haseley threw out Todd Gurley for $1.  This being a standard league, I was definitely getting involved in the bidding on Gurley, but I had no idea if I would be in until the end.  As we approached $40 I had to start to think about if I wanted to use over 20% of my budget on the very first player off the board.  It slowed down at $40 and I knew I was going to try to win him at that point.  $43 was the final price and once again the first big name off the board went for a relative value.   Factoring the low prices on QBs and TEs I had Gurley around $48, so I was pleased.

From there I had to sit back and really evaluate how the room was valuing players.  Top tier wide receivers were at a premium.  Antonio Brown going for $53 made me think that I was not going to be able to pair Gurley with a Top 5 WR.  There were some values in the WR2 range, but you had to be on the right side of the tier to get them.

Brandon Marianne Lee showed her hand early, that she wanted to build using ZeroRB and you had to keep that in the back of your head when she was bidding.  She spent big for Odell Beckham Jr. at $57, but made up for that with a really nice value on Demaryius Thomas at $24.  The only reason I will even mention another owner is when we were in on the same player and I feel like I made a mistake in the bidding.  I don’t like to evaluate other expert’s teams or strategies because you can never be truly honest.  If you hate a team you will say things like “I don’t know what strategy they were using” or if you really loved it, it can come off as being an ass-kisser.  Seriously, people can be sensitive in this business.

I was in on Thomas.  It was early in the WR2 market and a lot of experts are down on Demaryius.  He’s going off the board in the early to late 3rd in best ball leagues and I thought he’d be a nice way to grab a slightly depressed value as my WR1.  Going against Brandon was two-fold tough.  She was on ZeroRB so she was bidding on WRs and she’s a Denver fan.  As much as that may not sway her, like I try not have the Giants fan in me pay a premium for Shepard or Beckham, it is still in the back of my head.  I bid 23 and she quickly bid 24.  I had to make a choice, bid 25 and let her get to the number I set for him at 26 or jump from 24 to 26 and make her go to 27 and drop out there.  I contemplated my bid a little too long and by the time I decided on 26 the first S sound from sold was rolling off of Steve Gardner’s tongue.

That one hurt, but it wasn’t the only big L in my column.  I was in on Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman and let both go as $11 values to Jake Ciely and Ray Summerlin, respectively.  I don’t love either in Standard leagues, but they were values and I should have price enforced a bit more even if I didn’t really “want” them on my team.

The wide receivers started to fly by me in the auction.  I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a few guys.  TY Hilton to Corey Parson for $29 was one I wanted and just couldn’t pull the trigger on going to $30 or more.  Donte Moncrief for $21 to Chad Parsons was one where I was willing to overpay based on upside, but Chad is a dynasty guy at heart and I thought he would push pretty high for Moncrief.  $21 was a nice price and I probably should have pushed to $23 at least, but I didn’t.  I thought one of Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall and Mike Evans would go for under $30, but all went for $30 or above.  They were fine values at those prices, but I couldn’t afford it.  I had to bide my time and get a value.

I decided to change gears and concentrate on Running Backs and make sure I grabbed at least two more.  I got Doug Martin and CJ Anderson for $60 combined and I was extremely happy with that.  Anderson was a bit of a gamble at that price, but there weren’t any WR2s left on the board so I had to turn my focus to RB2s.  I made sure I grabbed Devontae Booker at the end of the auction for $5.  I also grabbed Ameer Abdullah and TJ Yeldon for a combined $15.  They are both in time shares and could end up on the wrong side of them, but they are in their second year and the competition in their time share could push them to improve.  It’s all about price.

Finally, a value presented itself in Golden Tate at $18.  I had zero wide receivers and Matt and Joe were openly talking about it on air and wondering why no one was making me pay through the nose for the clear best WR2 left on the board.  I grabbed DeSean Jackson for $11 which was a nice value to me in a standard league.  Especially with what was left on the board.  I grabbed Steffon Diggs for $6 as my WR3 and I like him, but I see him more as a nice WR4 or flex option.  I then went ahead and grabbed Laquan Treadwell for his mid to late season upside for $3.  I do not like being so heavily involved in the Vikings passing game, but for $9 it wasn’t a bad price.

I wanted one of Sammi Coates or Phillip Dorsett as a high upside play and got Dorsett for $6 while Coates went for $9 to Ciely.

Quarterback was once again a position that was undervalued.  With QBs only being 1/10th of your team score it’s easy to understand why, but you still have to make sure people aren’t walking away with too big of a steal.  Last year in the snake draft I passed on Drew Brees and Russell Wilson in the 8th round and I ended up having to make sure I hit it out of the park with my late round pick of Phillip Rivers.  Not only did I suffer, but I made those teams just that much stronger.

In this auction Cam Newton went for the highest price at $20 to Karl Safchick and that set the value board for QBs.  Drew Brees went for $16 before Aaron Rodgers went for $16 as well.  Once I saw Rodgers go for $16 I knew I had to get in on Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson when they went up for bidding.  I ended up with Luck for $11, which was not part of the plan going in, but for $11 I had a hard time saying no.  Wilson was also a value at $14. Ben Roethlisberger went for an absurdly low $5 to Michael Beller and it gave him enough ammo to over bid on a couple of players.  (Yes, that’s a subtle shot, LOL)

At Tight End we were all looking at what was left after Karl Safchick cleared out the TE store.  Karl bought Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert.  Even with one team going TE heavy the values were there.  Only Coby Fleener and Greg Olsen cracked double digits.  I ended up grabbing Gary Barnidge for $5.  I’m fine with the price, but I did target Zach Ertz going into the auction and Ertz ended up going for the same amount late to Chad Parsons.  I then decided that I would take Jimmy Graham as a $1 lottery ticket if the room would let me.  Sure enough, no one believes a player can come back from that surgery and I got him for a buck.  For a buck, I’ll take the chance.

Defenses.  The rule is to not spend more than $1.  I broke the rule when someone put Denver up for $1 and I knew I would get them at $2 and not have to wait until later in the auction to try and grab crappy D for $1.

My biggest L came towards the end of the auction when Allen Hurns was put up for bid.  He was clearly the top WR left on the board.  He was like 30 spots higher than the next best WR not taken.  I was in on Hurns early, with Jake Ciely and I going back and forth, but then I let feelings get involved as I really didn’t want to piss off the commissioner of the league as I already outbid him in a bit of bidding war for CJ Anderson.  I backed off for a second and looked down at my computer to see who else I could spend on and there was no one.  Steve Gardner was counting it down.  Going once, going twice, sss………. “Yo, Yo, Yo” from my left. Corey Parson jumps in just as I was opening my mouth.  Jake thought he got Hurns for $11.  Parson bid $12 and then there was a discussion.  As this was going on, I was hoping the bidding would be opened up again at $12 to Corey Parson with another countdown, but it didn’t happen.  I was prepared to bid $14 and get Hurns as my WR3.  This mistake in the bidding and my mistake for not keeping my bidding going both cost me big time.  Why?  Well, there was literally no one left for me to bid on with my remaining $18.  Besides Booker for $5 everything else was $1 or $2.   I broke the cardinal rule and left $13 on the board.  I didn’t leave the most money on the board, but I did make some of the biggest mistakes.

Learn from me.  Learn from this experience.  Spend your money!  That extra $13 would have had me rolling with Edelman, Fitz, Kelvin Benjamin, Kevin White, John Brown or Tyler Lockett over Stefon Diggs.

Complete Auction Results – 

 

 

 

 

 

DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the John Deere Classic

DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the John Deere Classic

@HitTheHighDraw of Fantasy Golf Insider stops by to tape our DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the John Deere Classic.

We discuss the top tier guys like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Kevin Na, Jon Rahm, and Daniel Summerhays.

We talk mid-tier players like Brian Harman, John Senden, Robert Garrigus, Patrick Rodgers, Keegan Bradley, Hudson Swafford, and Chris Stroud.

We talk about some low priced value plays in cash and GPPs like Retief Goosen, Sung Kang, Andrew Loupe, Bud Cauley, Michael Kim and Mark Hubbard.

We then build a GPP Lineup and are joined by Mike Bestor, caddie for Geoff Ogilvy, to talk about the course conditions and what it will take to win this week.

Bags to Riches

 

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DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the Travelers Championship

DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the Travelers Championship

@HitTheHighDraw of Fantasy Golf Insider stops by to tape our DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the Travelers Championship.

We discuss the top tier guys like Bubba Watson, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, Brendan Grace and Matt Kuchar

We talk mid-tier players like Russell Knox, Paul Casey, Webb Simpson, Jon Rahm, Francesco Molinari, Ryan Moore, Brian Harmon, Tyrrell Hatton and Zach Johnson

We talk about some low priced value plays in cash and GPPs like Chad Campbell, Chris Stroud, Russell Henley, Chez Reavie, Vaughn Taylor, Si Woo Kim, Michael Kim and Jamie Donaldson.

We then build a GPP Lineup and are joined by John Limanti, Caddie to Aaron Baddeley, to talk about the course conditions and what it will take to win this week.

 

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DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the 2016 PGA Championship

DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the 2016 PGA Championship

@HitTheHighDraw of Fantasy Golf Insider stops by to tape our DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the 2016 PGA Championship.

We discuss the top tier guys like Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth

We talk mid-tier players like Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, Charl Schwartzel, JB Holmes, Jim Furyk, Lee Westwood, and Branden Grace.

We talk about some low priced vplays like Andy Sullivan, Kevin Na, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari, James Hahn, Jason Kokrak and Vijay Singh.

We then build a GPP Lineup and are joined by James Hahn’s caddie Mark Urbanek to talk about the course conditions and what it will take to win this week.

 

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DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the RBC Canadian Open

DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the RBC Canadian Open

@HitTheHighDraw of Fantasy Golf Insider stops by to tape our DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the RBC Canadian Open.

We discuss the top tier guys like Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, and Jim Furyk.

We talk about mid tier players like, Charley Hoffman, Emiliano Grillo, Jon Rahm, David Hearn, William McGirt, and Chris Kirk

We talk about some low priced value plays like Jonas Blixt, Daniel Summerhays, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chad Campbell, Michael Kim and Stuart Appleby.

Jimmy Walker’s caddie Andy Sanders also stopped by the podcast to discuss some changes and non changes at Glen Abbey Golf Club and about Jimmy Walker’s play and his career as a caddie.  For more on Andy and Jimmy’s working relationship and Andy’s career before becoming a caddie check out some of these articles.

One door closes another opens

One Shot at a Time

PGA Tour Caddies Law Suit

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DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the British Open

DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the British Open

@HitTheHighDraw of Fantasy Golf Insider stops by to tape our DraftKings PGA DFS Podcast for the British Open.

We discuss the top tier guys like Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth.

We talk about the top chalk plays and who may be a good fade out of them.  Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Charl Schwartzel, Andy Sullivan, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Sergio Garcia, and Branden Grace.

We talk about some low priced value plays like Joost Luiten, Richard Sterne, Colt Knost, Daniel Summerhays, William McGirt, and Callum Shinkwin.

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